Best GM in League breaks down drafting a QB high.

[56mehl56]

28 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

This

Frankly, I don’t consider trading down and giving Darnold another chance some kind of doomsday scenario. Especially since we’ll now be implementing an offense that is tailor made for him.

The Jets just became more attractive to potential FA’s as well.

Imagine, let’s say, the Jets walking away with DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris and an EDGE like Rousseau just from the 1st round alone this year.

Yeah , we've heard that before. 

[sec101row23]

Just now, 56mehl56 said:

I disagree with that. In the past with exorbitant contracts being doled out to 1st round draft picks that was certainly an issue. Now with the rookie salary cap system in place that's no longer true. Problem is GM's/coaching staffs have a hard time admitting their choice didn't pan out and they stick with them far too long. Josh Rosen in Arz is a prime example to debunk the theory of your tied to a pick. 

How often does what happens in Arizona actually happen though?  It wasn’t only Rosen they ran out of town, it was the entire coaching staff as well.  But the problem is, just how long do you give a QB before you would spend another top 5 or so pick on one.  

[chirorob]

41 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Do these guys really all want to put their jobs on the line for a QB who has been bottom 5 for three straight years, with injury concerns to boot?

You're passing on a QB because you're afraid of him becoming what Darnold already is... 

They both have 5 years left on their contract.

They can build the roster more, and try one more time with Sam.   If he sucks, they will be in position to draft a QB next year.   There is always a QB next year, and with 2 first rounders they can, if need be, trade up.

[docdhc]

The thing is that they’ll probably never have as high a draft pick as they have this year. That puts pressure on them to pick a qb. Darnold would be worth a shot if he wasn’t about to get very expensive. It seems like a big gamble to build around him with his past performance and injury history when he’s going to be due 23 million  as a 5th year option after this year. I wonder if they have any hope for Morgan?

[BornJetsFan1983]

1 hour ago, Shockwave said:

Chris Ballard to me is the best in the business. I have never heard a GM be this upfront on not wanting to draft a QB high. 

We have a stud GM. Looks like we are going to have a stud coaching staff. Theres no way we are drafting Fields now - He just doesn't fit a SF system. So Wilson is the only option there. Do these guys really all want to put their jobs on the line for small QB with a large injury history that faced such poor competition. Especially with Wilson only being successful for one year? I just can't see it. 

I would absolutely be happy with building this team the way the Colts did. Instead of drafting Sam or any QB high they built their team the right way. They now have perhaps the best roster in the league. 

Trade down all day. 

 

Literally they cannust trade up if they wanted to now that they are in a position with a talented team. I don't know if this GM was the one who drafted luck and then nothing around him and wasted his career leading him into early retirement but it does seems the colts made the switch to building a team at some point after luck was starting to get trashed before he retired.

That is how you build a contender. Bring in talent and then being in qb. We did the same thing to an extent with Sam as they did with luck. Thankfully Sam has has not retired from injury or mono yet. 

[Matt39]

3 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

How often does what happens in Arizona actually happen though?  It wasn’t only Rosen they ran out of town, it was the entire coaching staff as well.  But the problem is, just how long do you give a QB before you would spend another top 5 or so pick on one.  

If theyre as bas as Rosen or Darnold was? 1 season.

[56mehl56]

5 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

How often does what happens in Arizona actually happen though?  It wasn’t only Rosen they ran out of town, it was the entire coaching staff as well.  But the problem is, just how long do you give a QB before you would spend another top 5 or so pick on one.  

Again with today's rookie salary caps the mantra with QB's should be swing until you get a hit. If you can't tell that a QB is worth building behind in one year then we probably have the wrong GM/CS to begin with. 

[Skeet Ulrich]

Ballard decided to waste a really talented roster on the corpse of Phillip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett.  Color me unimpressed.

[ChuckkieB]

Folks, Darnold is NOT a good QB and will never be a good QB.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, QB's come into this league and are either good immediately or they are not good immediately.  Good young QB's can be coached up to be BETTER.  Very good young QB's can be coached up to be GREAT.  Almost NEVER, however, do we see a QB that comes into the league that is considered BAD somehow transform himself after 3 years to all of a sudden become GOOD.  It just does not happen.    Darnold is a bad QB after 3 years.  That ship has sailed.  

[56mehl56]

20 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

He did have no QB after Luck's unexpected retirement. Did he draft a QB? No. He went out and got Philip Rivers.

And where does that leave the Colts now - invest in a 40 year old QB or be forced to look for another journeyman as they are drafting in the 20's . They've entered QB purgatory and if they want to acquire a young QB to build with it will require substantial assets. 

[56mehl56]

51 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

He’s not saying you never take a QB high, he’s saying that if you aren’t completely sold on the kid you don’t take him because you’re not getting another opportunity to do so again.  

You could say that about any player picked in the top 5. 

[Sonny Werblin]

4 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

And where does that leave the Colts now - invest in a 40 year old QB or be forced to look for another journeyman as they are drafting in the 20's . They've entered QB purgatory and if they want to acquire a young QB to build with it will require substantial assets. 

Poor Colts with their top tier D and playoff team. My hear aches for that kind of failure.

[Skeet Ulrich]

1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Poor Colts with their top tier D and playoff team. My hear aches for that kind of failure.

Where's that team going? Rivers is 39 and should likely retire. Brissett stinks. They've got a good defense and some interesting skill weapons, but no engine to run it.

 

[56mehl56]

21 minutes ago, chirorob said:

They both have 5 years left on their contract.

They can build the roster more, and try one more time with Sam.   If he sucks, they will be in position to draft a QB next year.   There is always a QB next year, and with 2 first rounders they can, if need be, trade up.

So potentially throw another year away with Sam and then throw more assets away next year to get a QB when they could have taken one this year .

[sec101row23]

6 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Again with today's rookie salary caps the mantra with QB's should be swing until you get a hit. If you can't tell that a QB is worth building behind in one year then we probably have the wrong GM/CS to begin with. 

But even with the rookie wage scale, top rated picks are still costly.  You can’t simply cut them every year until you find one.  They’re still making over $40M guaranteed.  Even if you cut Sam right now he still has almost $10M in dead money. 

[sec101row23]

6 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

You could say that about any player picked in the top 5. 

Right, but if you feel that Sewell, for example, has future hall of fame ability you don’t mind taking him there.   My point, is that you dont take a prospect at 2 that you aren’t confident about just because he plays QB.  That’s foolish.  

[56mehl56]

2 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Right, but if you feel that Sewell, for example, has future hall of fame ability you don’t mind taking him there.   My point, is that you dont take a prospect at 2 that you aren’t confident about just because he plays QB.  That’s foolish.  

Yes but there are stud OL/RB/WR/DL in every draft , its very seldom there are stud QB's . If Lawrence wasn't in this draft class - Fields /Wilson/Lance would all be the hot picks and topics . People are so thrown off by missing on Trevor they think why settle for option 2 when we can "build". 

[Sonny Werblin]

12 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

Where's that team going? Rivers is 39 and should likely retire. Brissett stinks. They've got a good defense and some interesting skill weapons, but no engine to run it.

 

They have a nearly complete young team, pick 21 and have the draft capital to trade up to #2 if they wanted. And that is the benefit of building the team before adding the QB. 

[y2k8]

36 minutes ago, docdhc said:

The thing is that they’ll probably never have as high a draft pick as they have this year. That puts pressure on them to pick a qb. Darnold would be worth a shot if he wasn’t about to get very expensive. It seems like a big gamble to build around him with his past performance and injury history when he’s going to be due 23 million  as a 5th year option after this year. I wonder if they have any hope for Morgan?

No it doesn't. 

[section314]

16 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

Folks, Darnold is NOT a good QB and will never be a good QB.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, QB's come into this league and are either good immediately or they are not good immediately.  Good young QB's can be coached up to be BETTER.  Very good young QB's can be coached up to be GREAT.  Almost NEVER, however, do we see a QB that comes into the league that is considered BAD somehow transform himself after 3 years to all of a sudden become GOOD.  It just does not happen.    Darnold is a bad QB after 3 years.  That ship has sailed.  

You remember the end of Sam's rookie year when he went toe to toe with Watson and Rodgers? Played two great games, so good that J.J watt told him after the game "he was gonna be a great player in this league?"  He was getting better, and then they absolutely killed any progression by bringing in Gase and Loggains. Did he play terribly this year, absolutley. The question is, does he have the talent to allow good coaching to make him good/great? We've seen some really good Sam, and some really bad Sam. Now that we have coach figured out, this is decision #1B.

[Sperm Edwards]

Meh to the idea the Colts built "the right way" & such. They're only a playoff team because Philip Rivers was available as a UFA, and absent that and half their schedule being filled with struggling opponents (including 4 games vs. 2 division rivals who couldn't buy a win, plus the Jets, Bengals, and Lions on their schedule.

Absent that perfect storm - including just having a game-manager in at QB again - then the Colts would still be mediocre: a meh team capable of an upset here & there. They split with Tennessee, and beat GB in OT because Valdes-Scantling fumbled in Colts FG range (and again, absent Rivers being their QB, it surely doesn't get that far).

They are/were a playoff team with a productive HOF QB, and (if healthy) with Lucking into the top QB prospect in a 20 yr window. They aren't much without either standing in, and last year had the same 7-9 record as the 2019 Jets even with an efficient game manager in Brisset. 

They have to be the fraudiest top 10 defense in years, aided by facing all those creampuffs. They crapped the bed against Ten in their other matchup, as well as Balt, Pitt, Cleveland, and Buffalo in their 1-and-done playoff game. Show up against snoozer offenses, give up tons of points against good teams. Top 10, whatever.

They are the ONLY 2020 playoff team that has - years after first investing in Andrew Luck, mind you - made such an extreme draft investment in their OL, and one of the three 1st round picks they made for their line was so long ago he was closer to a FA add (and has just retired as well). 

These great Colts also have exactly 1 more playoff win than the Jets over the Jets' last 6 letdown seasons, and that lone playoff victory was purely due to the defense pitching a shutout for the first 3 quarters until the game was out of hand, not because of their FQB and a row of 1st round OLmen blocking for him. 

• They have no LT
• They have no QB
• They have no QB in the pipeline coming up
• Their top WR is a has-been who's in obvious decline from his prime

Recipe for success, my left one. If Rivers retires or hits the wall next season age-wise, they'll again be between nothing and just ok.

[sec101row23]

35 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Yes but there are stud OL/RB/WR/DL in every draft , its very seldom there are stud QB's . If Lawrence wasn't in this draft class - Fields /Wilson/Lance would all be the hot picks and topics . People are so thrown off by missing on Trevor they think why settle for option 2 when we can "build". 

Again, IF JD doesn’t agree that those QBs are “studs” then he should not draft them at 2.  Reaching for a Qb that you aren’t necessarily sold on would be foolish.   That’s my whole point.  

[k-met57]

2 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Chris Ballard to me is the best in the business. I have never heard a GM be this upfront on not wanting to draft a QB high. 

We have a stud GM. Looks like we are going to have a stud coaching staff. Theres no way we are drafting Fields now - He just doesn't fit a SF system. So Wilson is the only option there. Do these guys really all want to put their jobs on the line for small QB with a large injury history that faced such poor competition. Especially with Wilson only being successful for one year? I just can't see it. 

I would absolutely be happy with building this team the way the Colts did. Instead of drafting Sam or any QB high they built their team the right way. They now have perhaps the best roster in the league. 

Trade down all day. 

 

am i the only one that listened to this and thought it sounded weak? so he is afraid to take a calculated risk because he may get fired? ok...lets run it back with Phil Rivers lol

[JustInFudge]

Meh, kind of sounds like a coward who will be the GM of a middling franchise because he doesnt have the balls to take a QB.  And go figure, the Colts have had 2 winning seasons out of 4 under Ballard and that was with an inherited Luck and free agent Rivers.  Most GM's arent lucky enough to inherit a borderline HOF'er and then just so happen to land one in FA too and he has exactly zero playoff wins to show for it.

This is the first year Ballard has even drafted a QB, in the 4th round, Jacob Eason.  Prior to that, the only move he's ever really made to get a young QB was when he traded for Jacoby Brissett.  No offense to Ballard but what does he know about drafting a QB?

 

[Guilhermezmc]

7 minutes ago, JiF said:

Meh, kind of sounds like a coward who will be the GM of a middling franchise because he doesnt have the balls to take a QB.  And go figure, the Colts have had 2 winning seasons out of 4 under Ballard and that was with an inherited Luck and free agent Rivers.  Most GM's arent lucky enough to inherit a borderline HOF'er and then just so happen to land one in FA too and he has exactly zero playoff wins to show for it.

This is the first year Ballard has even drafted a QB, in the 4th round, Jacob Eason.  Prior to that, the only move he's ever really made to get a young QB was when he traded for Jacoby Brissett.  No offense to Ballard but what does he know about drafting a QB?

 

Lets run it back with 40 yo rivers beacuse im afraid to loose my job

[Mackman55]

1 hour ago, ChuckkieB said:

Folks, Darnold is NOT a good QB and will never be a good QB.  I've said it before and I'll say it again, QB's come into this league and are either good immediately or they are not good immediately.  Good young QB's can be coached up to be BETTER.  Very good young QB's can be coached up to be GREAT.  Almost NEVER, however, do we see a QB that comes into the league that is considered BAD somehow transform himself after 3 years to all of a sudden become GOOD.  It just does not happen.    Darnold is a bad QB after 3 years.  That ship has sailed.  

This is not correct. See Tannehill, Allen, Eli Manning and especially Goff. You couldn't be more wrong.

[Lith]

25 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Again, IF JD doesn’t agree that those QBs are “studs” then he should not draft them at 2.  Reaching for a Qb that you aren’t necessarily sold on would be foolish.   That’s my whole point.  

Agreed.  If you don't like the options at 2, then don't take a QB just because there is a need.  Reaching for a QB is what gets you Trubisky, Bortles or Gabbert in the top 10.

On the other hand,  If we love one of these QBs, then take him at 2,  Don't pass to build the roster first, don't trade back and hope you can still get your QB.  If you love a guy and he is there, just take him.

[Beerfish]

2 hours ago, hamat711 said:

Based on what?

 

Making the hard choice of picking Becton or Wirfs? 

Or was it drafting a 2nd round WR who isn't even top 10 in his rookie class?

Must be when he traded a all-pro caliber Dlinemen for a 3rd round pick used to draft a below average safety.

Maybe it was him pissing off a all-pro Safety so he could trade him away for two late 1st rounders.

#1 is correct, we were going to take a tackle

#2 is correct, the sin is not taking mims there, the sin is not taking another Wr in this draft but instead having an awful 4th round

#3 is not correct,  Leo williams is mo wilk, leo just had a great season in his contract year he was flat out lousy for us his last two years here.  That trade was fine.

#4 is totally incorrect, Jamal Adams is the most overrated player in the whole league and Douglas just fleeced Seattle.

[ChuckkieB]

16 minutes ago, Mackman55 said:

This is not correct. See Tannehill, Allen, Eli Manning and especially Goff. You couldn't be more wrong.

I said almost never btw, and each of these 3 QB's made significant leaps in their second full year in the league, and even if you disagree with that assessment, that's just a handful of QB's in probably the last 15-20 years or so. I'll stick with my position.    

None of this changes the fact that there is 3 years of bad NFL game film on Darnold floating around in the ether,  and it's going to take too much time and work to "fix" for it to be worth it for the Jets imo.

[JustInFudge]

12 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Lets run it back with 40 yo rivers beacuse im afraid to loose my job

Right? I mean, I get his overall point but if he doesnt find a QB, then they're just going to be an on and off, every other year, 1 and done team...just like they are now.  Meanwhile, the AFC is absolutely loaded with young (1st round) talent; Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Mayfield, Herbert, Burrow and soon to be Lawrence and possibly either Fields or Wilson, if not both!  His division will have Watson, Lawrence and Tannehill playing his best Football. 

Sounds to me like a great way to lose your job, idk.

[Jet Life]

He’s never had a high pick in position to draft a QB. Obviously he’s right you want the right guy, but who’s to say these aren’t the right guys? Nobody knows. Most people didn’t believe in Herbert and he had a historic season. We have no idea. Trust the coaching staff and JD

[Mackman55]

1 minute ago, ChuckkieB said:

I said almost never btw, and each of these 3 QB's made significant leaps in their second full year in the league, and even if you disagree with that assessment, that's just a handful of QB's in probably the last 15-20 years or so. I'll stick with my position.    

None of this changes the fact that there is 3 years of bad NFL game film on Darnold floating around in the ether,  and it's going to take too much time and work to "fix" for it to be worth it for the Jets imo.

I was not defending Sam at all in my post. You made a blanket statement regarding young QB's that was not accurate, no big deal.

[ChuckkieB]

3 minutes ago, Mackman55 said:

I was not defending Sam at all in my post. You made a blanket statement regarding young QB's that was not accurate, no big deal.

I'm not sure how saying "almost never" can be considered a blanket statement but ok. You roll with that.  No big deal. 

[JustInFudge]

5 minutes ago, Jet Life said:

He’s never had a high pick in position to draft a QB. Obviously he’s right you want the right guy, but who’s to say these aren’t the right guys? Nobody knows. Most people didn’t believe in Herbert and he had a historic season. We have no idea. Trust the coaching staff and JD

He had the #3 overall.

 

[Shockwave]

1 hour ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

Literally they cannust trade up if they wanted to now that they are in a position with a talented team. I don't know if this GM was the one who drafted luck and then nothing around him and wasted his career leading him into early retirement but it does seems the colts made the switch to building a team at some point after luck was starting to get trashed before he retired.

That is how you build a contender. Bring in talent and then being in qb. We did the same thing to an extent with Sam as they did with luck. Thankfully Sam has has not retired from injury or mono yet. 

Ballard has been the GM there the last 3-4 years and builded that team as you mentioned. He did not draft Luck. 

Ballard trades down quite often and has totally rebuilt that team in the last 3 years. They are loaded with young cheap talent