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#2 Pick Trade Value


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Lots of raging debate going on and still to come on whether we take Fields, Wilson, Sewell or trade.  I'm going to skip past the first three possibilities here and take this thread to examine trade scenarios that might be reasonably on the table for the Jets with the pick.  Personally, I would limit it to top-10 picks but if someone has a scenario that goes lower, possibly involving players, I'm curious to hear them as well. 

Let's start with the bad news.  Only two teams have two 1st round picks this year (other than the Jets).  JAX and MIA.  JAX is clearly not a trade partner, and MIA could be although highly unlikely.

Next I'd look at what player teams would trade up to #2 for.  Three names:  Sewell, Fields and Wilson.  There are a lot of teams that might want to grab one of the two QBs early, ATL (#4), PHI (#6), DET (#7), CAR (#8), DEN (#9) and DAL (#10) are all potential suitors there.  For Sewell, CIN (#5) is the obvious choice but a few of the others could also be interested.

For obvious reasons, ATL is the most intriguing because assuming they trade up for a QB, there is a chance MIA does not draft Sewell (or trade to someone who does) as they might go WR instead.  Even if they do, that leaves Chase and Smith at #4.

So I'll start with them.  What would a trade from ATL to move up from #4 to #2 look like?  I'd assume it starts with a 1st and 2nd this year and a 1st next year, maybe with us throwing something back like the SEA 3rd rounder.  Is ATL that ready to bring in their QB of the future to sit behind Ryan for a year?  They should be. 

PHI at #6 should be also and that trade would be even larger.  Say 1st and 2nd this year, 1st and 3rd next year.  At #6, Sewell, Chase and Smith *could* all be gone but unlikely since that means Wilson is still on the board.  At that point, you can trade down again possibly.  But if not, this is a tricky spot.  Parsons isn't a need at ILB.  There's not really an obvious pick that I can see.  Waddle, Pitts, Paye?  Like em all, but not feeling any are must-have picks at that point.  Trading down a few more slots would probably be the right play. 

Otherwise, I think picking around #8 or #9 isn't really much different than #6 for us.  CAR would probably have to put up this year's 1 and 2, and next year's 1 and 2.  

But perhaps the most intriguing partner is DET.  Let's say they offer this year's 1 and 2, and next year's 1 and 2 and we give them back a 3rd or 4th next year.  That's a lot for them to pay but that is about right for moving from 7 to 2.  What I like is that they are in a division with GB and MIN and are highly unlikely to finish 8-8 or better.  So that 2022 1st rounder could be top-10 again.  While I normally don't like moving down that far, I think the way this draft lays out, it could make a lot of sense.  We could land, Chase or Smith, or maybe Waddle at #7, and have soooo many picks this year and next to fill out the roster.  And we'd have really good ammo to move up next year for a QB if we needed to.  They might be more likely to aim lower down and be okay with taking whoever falls between Wilson and Fields, but I'd be pretty excited with this move if it came to be.

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Good read

And you've convinced me that the most beneficial trade down parter, for us, would be Detroit. 

But I'm wondering now who will be most willing to move up for their quarterback.

If I were the...

Falcons (4): I'm comfortable at my pick. They're guaranteed one of those three QB's (well two, since TL is a lock for #1) or Sewell. 

Bengals (5): I could easily take the highest tackle on my board, even if Sewell were gone, or trade down to a place where I think the tier 2 tackles have value. 

Eagles (6): I don't see them trading up at all. Wentz or Hurts is the future.

Lions (7): This all depends on the future of Stafford. If we see that they move him, I think this is a prime trading partner. 

Panthers (8): On paper, right now, I think this is the most likely trade-up candidate. They have a star RB in his prime, some weapons @ receiver and a coach/GM pairing that hasn't chosen a quarterback yet. 

Broncos (9): I live in Denver and a lot of the sports personalities here want them to trade up for Fields, a few for Wilson. The thinking here is that the Broncos have A+ weapons but a C- quarterback. The trio of Sutton, Jeudy & Fant could really be dangerous.

Cowboys (10): A team with a boatload of skill position talent, a quarterback with massive contract demands coming off a gruesome injury and an owner that loves the limelight... let's see how this plays out with Dak. A team to watch.

 

Beyond that I think the price would be too high for a team to trade up, besides, I'd like to stay in the top 10 and add a true blue-chipper to this team.

So we'll see how things go with Stafford and Dak. I think that will end up giving us a lot of insight. But if there's no major movement and both teams retain their quarterbacks, my money would be on Carolina trading up. 

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IMO there is no way that Philly is trading up for a QB. They have a QB competition already and it makes no sense to trade Hurts and the reason Peterson was let go is b/c ownership wants to start Wentz. 

Bengals make sense, however by all accounts they are a team that almost never trades up.. I don't get it, but I have a buddy who is a Bengals fan and insists its like an unwritten rule for them. 

Falcons/Lions/Panthers/Broncos all share one unique thing with each other... ALL of them have new GMs. While one could make the argument that a new GM should be aggressive to go get their guy - I'd probably argue they are the LEAST likely to do so. New GMs don't have any immediate pressure to produce a winner, and probably don't want to lose out on several premium picks as they work to rebuild a struggling roster. 

Past big trade ups for QBs were RG3 by Washington, Wentz by Philly, Darnold by the dunce. All three teams had GMs that were several years into their tenure. Maccagnan is a good example. 1) he was dumb, but 2) he felt pressure to do something big to save his job as the Hack pick flopped and the team sucked. 

So who is our fish at the poker table? I see two options. 

1 - Dallas. Now I think its 90% chance they re-rign Dak, however, they already have a lot of cap committed to non QB players like Zeke, Cooper, Martin, etc. According to OTC they already have $180mm in cap commitments before Dak, and the cap may be as low as 190. The biggest reason I think they are our guy is because Jerry Jones is old as ****. He wants to win now, and if he falls in love with Fields or Wilson he may very well be interested in re-setting the rookie QB scale and giving up future picks. Furthermore Dallas has a few players that the Jets could very well be interested in like Gallup and Lae'el Collins. If the Jets gave up 2 and Dallas packaged Collins, 10, and two second rounders I think that'd be a big win for the Jets if Collins is healthy. 

2- SF. I view them the same way as I view Seattle trading for JA. They could easily be convinced they are one piece away and have a roster filled with talent that will make it tough to retain all talent while paying a non-rookie QB. They are picking at 12 so I would guess a better move for them is trading up to spots 5-10 for Lance or Fields/Wilson if they drop. However, everyone says Wilson is a great fit in Shannys scheme and if they fall in love with him there is only one spot that guarantees they get him. SFs 1,2 this year, 1 next year and a player or two that fit our new SF based scheme could work. 

 

 

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On 1/16/2021 at 12:56 PM, RedBeardedSavage said:

Good read

And you've convinced me that the most beneficial trade down parter, for us, would be Detroit. 

But I'm wondering now who will be most willing to move up for their quarterback.

If I were the...

Falcons (4): I'm comfortable at my pick. They're guaranteed one of those three QB's (well two, since TL is a lock for #1) or Sewell. 

Bengals (5): I could easily take the highest tackle on my board, even if Sewell were gone, or trade down to a place where I think the tier 2 tackles have value. 

Eagles (6): I don't see them trading up at all. Wentz or Hurts is the future.

Lions (7): This all depends on the future of Stafford. If we see that they move him, I think this is a prime trading partner. 

Panthers (8): On paper, right now, I think this is the most likely trade-up candidate. They have a star RB in his prime, some weapons @ receiver and a coach/GM pairing that hasn't chosen a quarterback yet. 

Broncos (9): I live in Denver and a lot of the sports personalities here want them to trade up for Fields, a few for Wilson. The thinking here is that the Broncos have A+ weapons but a C- quarterback. The trio of Sutton, Jeudy & Fant could really be dangerous.

Cowboys (10): A team with a boatload of skill position talent, a quarterback with massive contract demands coming off a gruesome injury and an owner that loves the limelight... let's see how this plays out with Dak. A team to watch.

 

Beyond that I think the price would be too high for a team to trade up, besides, I'd like to stay in the top 10 and add a true blue-chipper to this team.

So we'll see how things go with Stafford and Dak. I think that will end up giving us a lot of insight. But if there's no major movement and both teams retain their quarterbacks, my money would be on Carolina trading up. 

I don't think many people in PHI think either Wentz or Hurts is the future.  They're sort of in limbo on that one.  I think they would love a do-over with one of the top QBs, but nothing can be decided until they figure out who the new HC is going to be.

I agree with CAR being a likely candidate.  They might feel they are a QB away from serious contention.  Brees retiring.  Wilson and SEA not looking like they used to.  Rodgers is still god-like but beyond that, the NFC is pretty wide open.  I'm just not sure they would value Fields/Wilson enough to trade up to #2 when they could roll the dice on Lance or Jones or even kick the tires on trading for another QB.  Say Darnold if we are moving him.  Or Jimmy G if SF moves on.  Or maybe they become players for Dak.  Just so hard to project.

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1 minute ago, nycdan said:

I don't think many people in PHI think either Wentz or Hurts is the future.  They're sort of in limbo on that one.  I think they would love a do-over with one of the top QBs, but nothing can be decided until they figure out who the new HC is going to be.

I agree with CAR being a likely candidate.  They might feel they are a QB away from serious contention.  Brees retiring.  Wilson and SEA not looking like they used to.  Rodgers is still god-like but beyond that, the NFC is pretty wide open.  I'm just not sure they would value Fields/Wilson enough to trade up to #2 when they could roll the dice on Lance or Jones or even kick the tires on trading for another QB.  Say Darnold if we are moving him.  Or maybe they become players for Dak.  Just so hard to project.

I hear ya, I've got an older brother in Philly and it's went from so much optimism about the Eagles to utter despair. Who knows WTF happens there. 

The other thing you touched on, and so have others on this site, is that how many teams actually want to trade up for Fields or Wilson? Are they even coveted as quarterback prospects?

I'm not so sure - especially because I know we've got a need at quarterback, but I still don't want either one of them. I've become more and more open to Penei Sewell @ 2 if I have to stay put or am not satisfied with the trade down offers.

The other thing we should note - trading down from 23 might actually be fairly realistic as well. Every mock simulator I run, there's almost always a run of corners, wide receivers and edge players in the teens/early 20's. And I wonder if there's a quarterback fall like Rodgers or Lamar from one of these top 4 QB's. Def something to consider.

It's the speculation time of the year.

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4 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I hear ya, I've got an older brother in Philly and it's went from so much optimism about the Eagles to utter despair. Who knows WTF happens there. 

The other thing you touched on, and so have others on this site, is that how many teams actually want to trade up for Fields or Wilson? Are they even coveted as quarterback prospects?

I'm not so sure - especially because I know we've got a need at quarterback, but I still don't want either one of them. I've become more and more open to Penei Sewell @ 2 if I have to stay put or am not satisfied with the trade down offers.

The other thing we should note - trading down from 23 might actually be fairly realistic as well. Every mock simulator I run, there's almost always a run of corners, wide receivers and edge players in the teens/early 20's. And I wonder if there's a quarterback fall like Rodgers or Lamar from one of these top 4 QB's. Def something to consider.

It's the speculation time of the year.

It may be different for other teams.  We have to rebuild almost an entire roster.  CAR could be a playoff team with a good QB.  NO is going to take a big step back next season.  ATL probably isn't going to be much better so that just leaves TB and as Brady approaches 50, he is staring to look fallible.  Still a great QB, but he's making more mistakes.  They are definitely still the team to beat but CAR has to think that getting CMC back will be a big boost.  I just don't know if Rhule sees Teddy as a QB he can win big with or just a guy keeping the position warm.  I also don't know if there's a particular QB he falls in love with in this draft.  They also need an OT pretty badly, so they could just stand pat and take Slater.  Tough projection on them.

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The Bengals trading up would be very interesting to me because it could conceivably still result in a QB like Fields or Wilson being available when the Jets are up at #5.  If the Draft went Trevor(1), Sewell to Cincy(2), Devonta Smith to Miami(3), and then Atlanta goes Fields/Wilson at #4, then the Jets suddenly have a #5 pick that's just as valuable as the #2 for any team that would have taken Fields/Wilson at #2.  In fact, it's even better for that team because the QB now has a cheaper contract being taken at #5 than at #2.  We could absolutely hold that #5 hostage again for a team like Detroit, Denver, Carolina, etc.

Part of me hopes we don't get crazy on this DeShaun Watson thing because I'm ready to watch Joe Douglas put on a master class in the Draft with his #2, #23 and #34.

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The jets will I believe trade down with Carolina as the most likely spot and look to target either an Edge Rusher, or CB with the pick... Unless PItts I think would be in consideration here as well although it may be a little high, perhaps they trade down a second time into the high teens?  all a possibility.  

I think people who want an WR with that early pick will probably be disappointed especially if the jets spend early in FA on one.  It is a deep WR draft class and I am unsure that they are going to spend top capital on the position. Now a lot can change during the course of the pre draft process and Chase or Smith could absolutely wow them and change their minds.  But as of right now if youre asking me to lay my money down.  Its trade down with Car.  Target Edge or CB. 

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I think SF at #12 has to be a major consideration for a trade up given how close their roster is to peaking, and how badly they need a QB to compete in their division. 

The Draft Network has a mock where they trade with MIA to get up to #3, giving up two 1sts, two 2nds, and a 3rd. 

I think that would be more than enough to persuade JD to agree. 

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