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Adam Schefter: 1 Team In Best Position For Deshaun Watson Trade


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All depends on their ask. Right now he is their problem so if they have to deal him the compensation must be reasonable if not a slight discount. I'm all for exploring the cost and I'd love

They are not.

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Just now, Warfish said:

Because our O-line is pretty much the worst in the NFL (outside of Becton).

Because our WR group is pretty much the worst in the NFL.

Because our RB group is pretty much the worst in the NFL.

And because our TE's are amongst the worst in the NFL.

These seem like pretty good reasons a Watson-as-a-Jet might not produce to the previous levels of Watson-as-a-Texan.

So because we get Watson we cant improve these areas? I can guarantee you would have better Shot of Signing players like Arob and thuney if they knew they were coming to play for Watson. 

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16 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Just so I understand, the Texans will say no to trading Watson to the Jags in exchange for the #1/Lawrence because the Jags are in their division? LOL! So, they'd rather the Jags have Lawrence and the Texans counter with Fields or Wilson? It would be professional malpractice for the Texans to say no if the Jags offered a deal which included the #1 overall pick/Lawrence.

They will not trade Watson to the Jags never going to happen teams do not trade players like Watson within the division it just does not happen. If you can find me a blockbuster trade within a division go for it but if you do it would be an extremely rare trade. Free Agency is another story but this is not free agency

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20 minutes ago, Lizard King said:

It’s not blowing picks -

You are getting much more than Watson

you are earning the right to sit at the table for serious discussion to entice other premier offensive players for a decade. 

This part of the whole deal cannot be understated.

Given that he has a no-trade clause, Watson's agent can literally call players like Allen Robinson and recruit them to whatever team Watson says he wants to be traded to and we can actually afford 1 or 2 big name free agents on top of Watson.

Imagine Watson recruiting Robinson, JD acquiring Andrus Peat (Saints have to dump salary), and Richard Sherman joining Saleh here to start next to Hall.  Then we use 24 on Najee  Harris and 34 on an edge rusher.  Is that really not a good team?

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

The Jets have $70M in cap room, Watson's contract would eat up half of it. Miami has $32M in cap room, which is not enough to include Watson's contract right now, and they don't have much room to maneuver, either. If they wanted to include Tua in the deal, that would be an additional $8M cap hit - not savings. I don't think they can do it. 

If the Texans want to trade Watson the best team to do that with would be the Jets if the Jets are willing to give up the draft capital.

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20 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

If the Jets are giving up on Darnold (which they should), they need to draft a QB at #2 and fill as many holes as possible with the rest of their picks. IMO it's the much better option than trading all of our draft capital for Watson.  Watson is a great talent but putting him on this team minus a ton of high draft picks the next few years will only improve the team marginally, but not enough to become a consistent winner. 

The alternative could look like this:

Bills: Allen
Dolphins: Watson
Patriots: Garoppolo
Jets: Unproven Rookie Diceroll

If the Dolphins weren't in the mix I wouldn't be as concerned about Watson going elsewhere.  

SAR I

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9 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

I dont think the texans will want tua.  They will want picks.

And miami is a 10 win team.  If watson wants to win, then miami is a far better spot then the jets.  Its not close.

You're judging the team based on what it is right now. The Jets will be nothing like it is now in a few months with all of our cap space and picks. If we give 3 #1 picks, we'll still have a ton of picks and FA money to spend to get significantly better. We could field an offense that adds Robinson (he'll want to play with Watson), Mims, Crowder, Becton, Thuney, a new center, and another WR in the draft. We can also add a corner, LB, RB, etc with all of our picks and cash - Sam's pick too. Mosely is coming back. This is the perfect time to offer these picks - that's one of the reasons you accumulate them - in case a star player, let alone a QB at 25 years old, becomes available. He also likes the coach we hired. One thing to note - Watson has all the leverage right now as Schefter said. He can deny a trade and opt to not play for them. He will be driving the car - hopefully right to NYC.

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14 minutes ago, Scoop24 said:

So because we get Watson we cant improve these areas? I can guarantee you would have better Shot of Signing players like Arob and thuney if they knew they were coming to play for Watson. 

Typical Homerism,"we'll also just sign all the top desired Free Agents".

I'm sure all our 5th rounders will also end up as all pros too right?

Ok.

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6 minutes ago, section314 said:

Tells you all you need to know what the Dolphins think of Tua after 8 games, and what they'll do with #3 if they have it.

I think it’s less about Tua and more about Watson. Tua’s ceiling is and always was a game manager. Think Alex Smith on the Chiefs output. A team can win Super Bowls with that if the team around him is great, and Tua sells. 

Being said, if Watson were to become available, I think they wouldn’t hesitate to move Tua and their draft picks for him. Part 1 would be how do the Texans feel about Tua, and I can say with certainty that Nick Cesario thought highly of him. Part 2 is what do the Texans value higher: a potential QB at #3 (Wilson/Lance/Fields) or Tua... if they value a QB in the draft, Miami would have to trade him elsewhere (I don’t think that would be the case; I think the Texans would build around the QB position). 

The Jets and Dolphins are pretty evenly matched in terms of what they can offer (Darnold would be valued as well), but being that Watson has a no-trade clause he would have some power in deciding which team he’d play for. My guess is the Dolphins. 

I also don’t think Douglas wants to throw away his plan of building through the draft, which complicates things. I don’t see him giving up 3 1st round picks for any player—even if it’s a star QB. I think Miami would

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Just now, Warfish said:

Typical Homerism,"we'll also just sign all the top desired Free Agents".

Ok.

Im surely not judging it based on current roster which wont look same next year. Like your are.

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Just now, football guy said:

I think it’s less about Tua and more about Watson. Tua’s ceiling is and always was a game manager. Think Alex Smith on the Chiefs output. A team can win Super Bowls with that if the team around him is great, and Tua sells. 

Being said, if Watson were to become available, I think they wouldn’t hesitate to move Tua and their draft picks for him. Part 1 would be how do the Texans feel about Tua, and I can say with certainty that Nick Cesario thought highly of him. Part 2 is what do the Texans value higher: a potential QB at #3 (Wilson/Lance/Fields) or Tua... if they value a QB in the draft, Miami would have to trade him elsewhere (I don’t think that would be the case; I think the Texans would build around the QB position). 

The Jets and Dolphins are pretty evenly matched in terms of what they can offer (Darnold would be valued as well), but being that Watson has a no-trade clause he would have some power in deciding which team he’d play for. My guess is the Dolphins. 

I also don’t think Douglas wants to throw away his plan of building through the draft, which complicates things. I don’t see him giving up 3 1st round picks for any player—even if it’s a star QB. I think Miami would

I think any discussion about "mortgaging our future by trading picks" should include the caveat that we have two extra picks to start with, so its completely different then most past scenarios.

Would anyone on this board trade 2 overall and jamal adams for Watson?  Id imagine yes.  We can give up 2, 2022 first and 2023 firsts and still have 24 and 34 this year, 1st and 2nd round picks next year and a second in 2023.  Thats enough to keep building around your QB

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3 hours ago, Bronx said:

Watson will be the only QB that I would be interested in spending a #2 pick this year. Darnold's upside is greater than Wilson (fit for WCO but size/injuries are a concern) and Fields (not fit for spread zone, play action).

Otherwise, Sewell.

You had me up to the bold.  I'm hoping the FO is LOOKING to trade back.  

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9 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

You're judging the team based on what it is right now. The Jets will be nothing like it is now in a few months with all of our cap space and picks. If we give 3 #1 picks, we'll still have a ton of picks and FA money to spend to get significantly better. We could field an offense that adds Robinson (he'll want to play with Watson), Mims, Crowder, Becton, Thuney, a new center, and another WR in the draft. We can also add a corner, LB, RB, etc with all of our picks and cash - Sam's pick too. Mosely is coming back. This is the perfect time to offer these picks - that's one of the reasons you accumulate them - in case a star player, let alone a QB at 25 years old, becomes available. He also likes the coach we hired. One thing to note - Watson has all the leverage right now as Schefter said. He can deny a trade and opt to not play for them. He will be driving the car - hopefully right to NYC.

One other factor that needs to be looked at is weather. Watson grew up in the South went to school in the South and plays currently in the South . Given the choice to play in cold NY/NJ or balmy Mia may be something that is being underrated. 

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10 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

They will not trade Watson to the Jags never going to happen teams do not trade players like Watson within the division it just does not happen. If you can find me a blockbuster trade within a division go for it but if you do it would be an extremely rare trade. Free Agency is another story but this is not free agency

That is shortsighted cut off my nose despite my face kind of stuff right there. So, they would deprive themselves of Lawrence, just so Watson will not be in their division. If they think so highly of Watson, they probably should have been more responsive to his requests that they at least interview certain HC candidates.

It does NOT happen? While rare, it does happen. The Pats traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills and the Eagles traded Donavan McNabb to the Washington Football Team

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1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

That is shortsighted cut off my nose despite my face kind of stuff right there. So, they would deprive themselves of Lawrence, just so Watson will not be in their division. If they think so highly of Watson, they probably should have been more responsive to his requests that they at least interview certain HC candidates.

It does NOT happen? While rare, it does happen. The Pats traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills and the Eagles traded Donavan McNabb to the Washington Football Team

Both of those QB's mentioned were finished and Bledsoe never really amounted to anything neither trade was even close to a blockbuster.

A top 5.... 25 year old QB is way different 

Also what the Texans should or should not have done is what got them in this predicament either way they will never trade with the Jags . I agree Houston has handled this poorly no doubt about that.

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5 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

That is shortsighted cut off my nose despite my face kind of stuff right there. So, they would deprive themselves of Lawrence, just so Watson will not be in their division. If they think so highly of Watson, they probably should have been more responsive to his requests that they at least interview certain HC candidates.

It does NOT happen? While rare, it does happen. The Pats traded Drew Bledsoe to the Bills and the Eagles traded Donavan McNabb to the Washington Football Team

In those cases, the teams were unloading older QBs that they were done with, not moving a 25-year-old disgruntled star. They'll probably want to not only move him out of the division, but out of the conference. And I think Jax will just take their chances with Lawrence, paying him a total of about $35M over four years, instead of Watson who has more than that coming in each of 2022 & 2023. I do think it's safe to assume they won't be involved because it's not the best move for either team. 

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54 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

We currently have $62 million cap space based on the current cap which will be decreasing by $22-25 million so take that figure off the top.  Next your adding Watson’s $30 million cap hit

lose another $5-10 million to sign draft picks (though to be fair we won’t have any)

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

Your numbers are wrong.

Spottrac has already baked in the salary cap reduction to $175M in their estimate of $62M cap for the Jets.  And that is considered to be the absolute bottom for the cap next year.  I've seen rumblings that the league will work out a deal with the NFLPA to minimize the reduction with some other considerations back from the players (perhaps 17 game season).  

Also, I would trust overthecap.com much more than spottrac and they have the cap number for the Jets at $67.4M.

Next if you are adding Watson's cap hit for 2021 it's only $16M.  And then you are probably trading Darnold which saves you $5M of cap but you may need a backup that's better than White or Morgan so let's put $5M back in calling it wash.  That leaves you with around $51M of cap next year, after bringing Watson in.

Now, we'll probably want to rearrange the cap for Watson, raising the 2021 number a bit to lower the following two years of $40M apiece.   Say we give him an extra $6M in 2021 and lower the next two years by $3M each.  Now we're still just over $45M adn that's not even touching other possibilities like cutting Anderson which saves us over $8M in cap.  Plenty of room to bring in two top-level FAs and a few more mid-priced ones.

Thuney and ARob?  Possible.  And that's the worst case scenario.

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19 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think it’s less about Tua and more about Watson. Tua’s ceiling is and always was a game manager. Think Alex Smith on the Chiefs output. A team can win Super Bowls with that if the team around him is great, and Tua sells. 

Being said, if Watson were to become available, I think they wouldn’t hesitate to move Tua and their draft picks for him. Part 1 would be how do the Texans feel about Tua, and I can say with certainty that Nick Cesario thought highly of him. Part 2 is what do the Texans value higher: a potential QB at #3 (Wilson/Lance/Fields) or Tua... if they value a QB in the draft, Miami would have to trade him elsewhere (I don’t think that would be the case; I think the Texans would build around the QB position). 

The Jets and Dolphins are pretty evenly matched in terms of what they can offer (Darnold would be valued as well), but being that Watson has a no-trade clause he would have some power in deciding which team he’d play for. My guess is the Dolphins. 

I also don’t think Douglas wants to throw away his plan of building through the draft, which complicates things. I don’t see him giving up 3 1st round picks for any player—even if it’s a star QB. I think Miami would

The only leverage the Jets have over the Dolphins is one slot in the draft which gives the Texans The option to draft either Fields, Wilson or trade the pick for more draft capital which they desperately need. The Texans can pick up numerous picks with the Jet pick and then add Mac Jones in the second if they so choose. Bottom line they have options. 

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2 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Both of those QB's mentioned were finished and Bledsoe never really amounted to anything neither trade was even close to a blockbuster.

A top 5.... 25 year old QB is way different 

Also what the Texans should or should not have done is what got them in this predicament either way they will never trade with the Jags . I agree Houston has handled this poorly no doubt about that.

Oh OK. So intra division trades DO happen, they just don't involve top 5 25 year old QBs. Perhaps you should have said that in the first place.  BTW, whether intra or inter, I do not believe anyone has ever traded a top 5 25 years old QB, so the whole inter intra division thing is really nonsense.

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If the Jets are seriously entertaining trading for Watson, they might consider just going after Dak Prescott, instead. It'll be similar money, but no draft draft picks. 

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1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Oh OK. So intra division trades DO happen, they just don't involve top 5 25 year old QBs. Perhaps you should have said that in the first place.  BTW, whether intra or inter, I do not believe anyone has ever traded a top 5 25 years old QB, so the whole inter intra division thing is really nonsense.

I'm not the one who mentioned the Jags as a trade partner :)  ... Honestly I should not have had to explain why 25 year old Stud QB's do not get traded within a division . The intra-division explanation is not nonsense at all just trying to make the point .

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5 minutes ago, slats said:

In those cases, the teams were unloading older QBs that they were done with, not moving a 25-year-old disgruntled star. They'll probably want to not only move him out of the division, but out of the conference. And I think Jax will just take their chances with Lawrence, paying him a total of about $35M over four years, instead of Watson who has more than that coming in each of 2022 & 2023. I do think it's safe to assume they won't be involved because it's not the best move for either team. 

Yes. Drew Bledsoe was 30, but he had an all-pro year his first year in Buffalo. And what is it with moving the goal posts? I thought inter division trades NEVER happened. Now, they do, but just not with 25 year old stud QBs. Guess what? Whether inter or intra division, it's probably never happened before and most likely will not happen now.

My point is that if the Texans trade Watson and the Jags offer the #1 overall pick, they take it. You do not say NO to the BEST offer because it comes from within the division. There is a word for that ---  Stupidity.

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Just now, Smashmouth said:

I'm not the one who mentioned the Jags as a trade partner :)  ... Honestly I should not have had to explain why 25 year old Stud QB's do not get traded within a division . The intra-division explanation is not nonsense at all just trying to make the point .

So, to clarify, assuming you run the Texans and are trading Watson, you would say no to the best offer because it comes from within the division?

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Just now, Sonny Werblin said:

So, to clarify, assuming you run the Texans and are trading Watson, you would say no to the best offer because it comes from within the division?

Depends on how close the next-place offer is. If it's close, go outside the division.

Darnold on the other hand I pray gets traded within the AFC-E.

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5 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Oh OK. So intra division trades DO happen, they just don't involve top 5 25 year old QBs. Perhaps you should have said that in the first place.  BTW, whether intra or inter, I do not believe anyone has ever traded a top 5 25 years old QB, so the whole inter intra division thing is really nonsense.

The closest I can come is Cutler, who was a bit older (maybe 26 or 27) and not nearly the QB Watson is.

Steve Young was also traded early in his career but he hadn't started yet (and still wouldn't for a few more years).  

It really is unprecedented.  

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1 minute ago, jgb said:

Depends on how close the next-place offer is. If it's close, go outside the division.

Darnold on the other hand I pray gets traded within the AFC-E.

Is a trade including the #1 pick in this draft "close in value" to a trade which includes the #2 pick?

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32 minutes ago, football guy said:

 

I also don’t think Douglas wants to throw away his plan of building through the draft, which complicates things. I don’t see him giving up 3 1st round picks for any player—even if it’s a star QB. I think Miami would

disappointed star trek GIF

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1 minute ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Is a trade including the #1 pick in this draft "close in value" to a trade which includes the #2 pick?

Suppose it depends on how HOU views the available QBs.

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35 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think it’s less about Tua and more about Watson. Tua’s ceiling is and always was a game manager. Think Alex Smith on the Chiefs output. A team can win Super Bowls with that if the team around him is great, and Tua sells. 

Being said, if Watson were to become available, I think they wouldn’t hesitate to move Tua and their draft picks for him. Part 1 would be how do the Texans feel about Tua, and I can say with certainty that Nick Cesario thought highly of him. Part 2 is what do the Texans value higher: a potential QB at #3 (Wilson/Lance/Fields) or Tua... if they value a QB in the draft, Miami would have to trade him elsewhere (I don’t think that would be the case; I think the Texans would build around the QB position). 

The Jets and Dolphins are pretty evenly matched in terms of what they can offer (Darnold would be valued as well), but being that Watson has a no-trade clause he would have some power in deciding which team he’d play for. My guess is the Dolphins. 

I also don’t think Douglas wants to throw away his plan of building through the draft, which complicates things. I don’t see him giving up 3 1st round picks for any player—even if it’s a star QB. I think Miami would

I agree.  JD has shown a strong bias towards value shopping vs. making the big splash.  It's a positive when you're trying to build a team up from nothing.  It could be a negative when you need to make the big move to get your team over the top...

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9 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

So, to clarify, assuming you run the Texans and are trading Watson, you would say no to the best offer because it comes from within the division?

Yes .. there is no way I would trade a QB that good within the division. 

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