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Adam Schefter: 1 Team In Best Position For Deshaun Watson Trade


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2 hours ago, football guy said:

Likely going to trade up to #2

This Watson stuff is forcing some teams to show their hand.

Do you know if the people in the Houston FO were high on Darnold?

 

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All depends on their ask. Right now he is their problem so if they have to deal him the compensation must be reasonable if not a slight discount. I'm all for exploring the cost and I'd love

They are not.

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3 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Stay patient and build through the draft.  We are actually doing it right for once.  Please stay the course and do not mortgage the future on a player with 2 reconstructed knees.

Exactly.  I don’t have an issue going in a different direction with a new QB but let’s do it through the draft.  We aren’t in a position to dish out numerous first round picks.  We have too many holes in our roster.  Honestly I don’t believe JD would go this route anyway. He seems committed to build through the draft and get as much draft capital as possible 

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22 minutes ago, slats said:

If the Jets are seriously entertaining trading for Watson, they might consider just going after Dak Prescott, instead. It'll be similar money, but no draft draft picks. 

Dallas plans on Tagging him again so we’d need to trade for him 

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47 minutes ago, football guy said:

Wilson

Who are the Panthers jumping to trade to #2? Detroit? They don’t need to move to #2. Maybe #5 or #6 to prevent SF from jumping the line

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8 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Why would the Jags ever trade away Trevor Lawrence going into his 1st year on a rookie contract for Watson and his massive  contract?  

The Fish, though, would be the favorite to land Watson ONLY if the Texans have interest in Tua. If they don't want Tua, then the Fish and their stockpile of picks would match pretty equally to the Jets stockpile of picks. 

Why would the Texans want noodle arm Tua when Miami is thinking of unloading him after one season?

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1 hour ago, slats said:

The Jets have $70M in cap room, Watson's contract would eat up half of it. Miami has $32M in cap room, which is not enough to include Watson's contract right now, and they don't have much room to maneuver, either. If they wanted to include Tua in the deal, that would be an additional $8M cap hit - not savings. I don't think they can do it. 

I'd like to point out that if we make the trade then we are not paying Sam $20m so the cap hit isn't all that onerous.  

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Let’s see unknown draft pick at 2, Sam Darnold or a Top 5 QB in the league with a good defensive HC. If Watson goes to Miami all I would have to say is good luck trying to catch up to the Bills and Mia for the next 5 years. 

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8 hours ago, Wonderboy said:

Fields is no slouch. @JiF convinced me. Fields is bigger, stronger and every bit, if not more, the athlete Watson is.  This is no time to panic and blow the capital we have  amassed by trading for a QB. JD is NOT surrendering 3 #1’s for Watson. In the time JD has been here, you guys should know better. JD is a thief and not a chump. 

Fields’ potential is there. I just don’t see him game transitioning to the pros. 

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Lots of interesting takes on Watson vs. a QB at #2, and while my preference right now is to draft a QB, as long as Darnold is not an option in 2021, I would be fine with either of the other scenarios. 

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

The closest I can come is Cutler, who was a bit older (maybe 26 or 27) and not nearly the QB Watson is.

Steve Young was also traded early in his career but he hadn't started yet (and still wouldn't for a few more years).  

It really is unprecedented.  

Sonny Jergenson for Norm Snead

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Stay patient and build through the draft.  We are actually doing it right for once.  Please stay the course and do not mortgage the future on a player with 2 reconstructed knees.

It is a valid idea to keep building through the draft as JD seems to be keen on.

Though that statement is Ironic from someone with a Joe Namath pfp and handle.

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9 hours ago, Gramsci said:

Yes, that.

 

3 first rounders, being one of them a 2nd overall would be a pretty good offer for Watson imo. If the situation is as dire as everyone seems to be making it, I don't think the Texans could get a better offer than this. 

Understood.  My point is that's a lot to give up.  As I said, I get that it's Watson and confirmed FQB's cost a LOT.  But not only are we giving away three 1st round picks.... one of them is the #2 overall.  I'd try to stick to two 1st round picks (including the #2 overall) and do something more creative with the rest of the compensation like pick swaps (A 2022 2nd and the Jets get Houston's 4th, etc.)

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Jamal Adams and more (in the form of our own 2021 1st and 2022 1st, not Seattle's lower picks) + 2018 1st and 3x 2nd Round Picks and three seasons of poor play (Darnold sunk cost) + 3 years of not having Watson play QB for us + our 2023 1st.

All for a QB some of us knew we should have just drafted instead of Jamal Adams in the first place.

Yeah, I get it, today, ignoring the past, the deal may look ok.

But knowing the past, it's painful.  Sorry, but it is.  This is a guy that should have cost us one 1st round pick, #6 in 2017.

Now we might get him, four seasons later, for three #1 picks, including pick #2 in 2021.

Again, I get it, Watson is a top 5 QB, a legit franchise QB.  But man, could we ever just draft the right guy when it comes to QB's?

 

It must be a lot of fun to sit next to you in a Chad Pennington jersey and watch Tom Brady go to something like his millionth Conference Championship Game! lol

#2000Draft

#WeAreMarshall

#Pick18

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1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

Who are the Panthers jumping to trade to #2? Detroit? They don’t need to move to #2. Maybe #5 or #6 to prevent SF from jumping the line

Miami. Just don't think they are sold on Tua.

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16 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

Justin Herbert says Hi 🙋🏻‍♂️ 

You’re willing to take that risk? How often does that happen? 
 

If we take a chance on Fields or Wilson and miss, we have to start all over. It will set us back 3-5 years. 
 

Watson is proven. When was the last time we had a QB throw for nearly 5K yards? 

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2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

So drafting a Qb in back to back years in the 1st round? Unlikely 

Not optimal, for sure, but Arizona did it, successfully, and ironically, sent their mistake to the Finns.😁

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2 hours ago, BCJet said:

I think any discussion about "mortgaging our future by trading picks" should include the caveat that we have two extra picks to start with, so its completely different then most past scenarios.

Would anyone on this board trade 2 overall and jamal adams for Watson?  Id imagine yes.  We can give up 2, 2022 first and 2023 firsts and still have 24 and 34 this year, 1st and 2nd round picks next year and a second in 2023.  Thats enough to keep building around your QB

Next years Seattle pick could easily be a top 10 pick.

We fleeced seattle on the adams trade so his name is out of the picture totally.

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10 hours ago, doitny said:

Watsons contract is big. we will has alot less money for FA.

and there is no way we keep any of our 1st rd picks the next 2 years. hell maybe even 3 yrs Watson  is 25  and great. we will give up a kings ransom for him

you need to look at his numbers again.

70% comp 4823 yds 33 TD 7 INT on a 4 win team.

this trade if it happens will be bigger than the Hershel Walker trade. 

No it won't because Houston is leveraged. If I am considering trading with Houston #2 is off the table. I would trade our second #1 and a second pick or Darnold. No way am I considering more than 1 #1, we still would need to build a team around Watson. I might trade bothe Seattle #1s depending on what I can get for trading down from #2. If they insist on #2 I just take Wilson and move on.

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12 hours ago, Beerfish said:

All depends on their ask.

Right now he is their problem so if they have to deal him the compensation must be reasonable if not a slight discount.

I'm all for exploring the cost and I'd love to have him as our QB but not if we are left with him and a few 3rd and 4th rounders for the next few years.

I can't imagine it'd come to that. You're talking about 4 1sts and 2 2nds (the first of which is 1 slot away from a 5th 1st round pick). Three #1 picks (including an immediate #2 overall) should do it; I don't see anyone eclipsing that, so it's a matter of Houston taking it or not.

Look at the net cost of what's lost in trading 3 1sts (both this year plus Seattle's next year) for Watson vs. keeping Darnold assuming he magically panning out after drafting Sewell #2, and then extending Darnold:

  • The cap cost is negligible between Watson's existing 5 yrs & Darnold's upcoming 2 + the first 3 years of an extension should he turn into a probowl QB somehow. Both scenarios would be in the $29MM/year neighborhood from 2021-2025.
  • Using #2 this year on another Sewell - that elite 2nd tackle prospect that Watson doesn't require - nullifies the impact of the biggest draft pick loss. Becton/Fant (or a later pick if someone beats out Fant) is plenty of "bookend" protection for an elite, mobile QB. So we lose Sewell, but Sewell won't make Darnold+Becton > Watson+Becton.
  • The Jets would actually get something for Darnold, crazy as many fans think it is that anyone would offer up a day 2 pick or more. That bites away at most of next year's later 1st rounder from Seattle in terms of trade value (this year's pick = next year's pick 1 round higher). It's at least in the ballpark. 

If in fact it takes 3 1st rounders (including #2 overall) for Watson? What you're left with as an approximate net cost, for the certainty of outcome between Watson in his prime and hoping Darnold instantly/ever becomes even 80% of Watson, is pick #23 this year. 

Also lost in this "best case" comparison is, until proven otherwise on the field, Darnold sucks. FFS he was a bigger turnover machine in college than Watson was last year after taking away the best receiver he'll ever have. Further, while we may still pick up one of the 4 top names at WR in FA this year, Watson doesn't require as big a name as Darnold if say Robinson's looking for near-Hopkins money

I'll still believe Watson will actually be traded only when it happens, and not before then, but given the position Douglas put the team in by trading Adams and sucking in 2020, the Jets are in a unique position to absorb this type of trade if it's really an option. Most of the pain felt from trading all this was earned in the past (Adams + a garbage 2020 season); not so much going forward. 

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I can't imagine it'd come to that. You're talking about 4 1sts and 2 2nds (the first of which is 1 slot away from a 5th 1st round pick). Three #1 picks (including an immediate #2 overall) should do it; I don't see anyone eclipsing that, so it's a matter of Houston taking it or not.

Look at the net cost of what's lost in trading 3 1sts (both this year plus Seattle's next year) for Watson vs. keeping Darnold assuming he magically panning out after drafting Sewell #2, and then extending Darnold:

  • The cap cost is negligible between Watson's existing 5 yrs & Darnold's upcoming 2 + the first 3 years of an extension should he turn into a probowl QB somehow. Both scenarios would be in the $29MM/year neighborhood from 2021-2025.
  • Using #2 this year on another Sewell - that elite 2nd tackle prospect that Watson doesn't require - nullifies the impact of the biggest draft pick loss. Becton/Fant (or a later pick if someone beats out Fant) is plenty of "bookend" protection for an elite, mobile QB. So we lose Sewell, but Sewell won't make Darnold+Becton > Watson+Becton.
  • The Jets would actually get something for Darnold, crazy as many fans think it is that anyone would offer up a day 2 pick or more. That bites away at most of next year's later 1st rounder from Seattle in terms of trade value (this year's pick = next year's pick 1 round higher). It's at least in the ballpark. 

If in fact it takes 3 1st rounders (including #2 overall) for Watson? What you're left with as an approximate net cost, for the certainty of outcome between Watson in his prime and hoping Darnold instantly/ever becomes even 80% of Watson, is pick #23 this year. 

Also lost in this "best case" comparison is, until proven otherwise on the field, Darnold sucks. FFS he was a bigger turnover machine in college than Watson was last year after taking away the best receiver he'll ever have. Further, while we may still pick up one of the 4 top names at WR in FA this year, Watson doesn't require as big a name as Darnold if say Robinson's looking for near-Hopkins money

I'll still believe Watson will actually be traded only when it happens, and not before then, but given the position Douglas put the team in by trading Adams and sucking in 2020, the Jets are in a unique position to absorb this type of trade if it's really an option. Most of the pain felt from trading all this was earned in the past (Adams + a garbage 2020 season); not so much going forward. 

The choices are not limited watson or committing to darnold.

The value of the 2nd overall pick in a draft is worth about 3 times or more than the 23rd pick in the draft.

The Seattle pick next year could easily be much higher than #23 overall.

 

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2 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Stay patient and build through the draft.  We are actually doing it right for once.  Please stay the course and do not mortgage the future on a player with 2 reconstructed knees.

I am all for keeping Sam and building the "boring" way.  For example I'd be thrilled using our 1st 3 picks on oline and get Thuney in free agency.  Basically trying to build the best oline known to man.

But Watson is just too good to ignore.  I think he's a top 4 QB... on a crap team while the other 3 are on good teams.  And he's only 25.

If we can get him for 3 firsts, I'm all for it.  Especially considering we have Seattle's firsts and decent compensation from trading Sam.

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3 hours ago, SAR I said:

The alternative could look like this:

Bills: Allen
Dolphins: Watson
Patriots: Garoppolo
Jets: Unproven Rookie Diceroll

If the Dolphins weren't in the mix I wouldn't be as concerned about Watson going elsewhere.  

SORE I

Chris: Hey Gaze, could you believe the Bills are going to the AFC championship game?

Gaze: No, they’re not.  They lost to the Ravens.  SORE I told me that.

Chris: SORE I???  He still think we beat them in game 1 last year!

Gaze/Chris:  Hahahahahaha!

Gaze: He also thinks you didn’t fire me!!!!

Gaze/Chris:  Hahahahahaha!

Gaze: Wait, why am I laughing?

Chris: I don’t know!

 

 

3E6E3347-B1B2-4AEC-A619-1F9404037D99.gif

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29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The choices are not limited watson or committing to darnold.

The value of the 2nd overall pick in a draft is worth about 3 times or more than the 23rd pick in the draft.

The Seattle pick next year could easily be much higher than #23 overall.

 

Well you know I agree with the bolded part. But I'm seeing so many say we either have to trade the pick for Watson or the "no brainer" pick is to take another LT a year after we just drafted one.

Plus it's not a foregone conclusion that Douglas won't take Sewell, assuming the pick hasn't somehow already been traded for Watson. 

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Here’s another potential outcome.

Douglas trades the #2 pick to Carolina for #8, #39 and their 2022 second round pick. (Ok, maybe more but that’s not the point here).  He then trades #8, #34, #66 and Seattle first and Carolina second in 2022 and Darnold.

Houston then has a first, a second and two thirds in 2021 and two firsts, two seconds and two thirds in 2022 including the first pick (their own) in the draft to get their QB after a season of Darnold.  This is the kind of deal I would want if I were the Texans.  It’s a game changer for their future while sucking for one season.

Douglas then signs Allen Robinson, Thuney, Judon and manages to nab Marcus Lattimore from the Saints and then drafts:

  • #23 - Freirmuth, TE
  • #39 - Wyatt Davis, OG
  • #86 - Kenny Gainwell, RB
  • #99 - Elijah Moore, WR
  • #131 - Ambry Thomas, CB

Now many posters will respond, “Freirmuth won’t be there in at #23!!!”.  My response to that is shut up!  No one know who will be where!

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1 hour ago, Ghost said:

You’re willing to take that risk? How often does that happen? 
 

If we take a chance on Fields or Wilson and miss, we have to start all over. It will set us back 3-5 years. 
 

Watson is proven. When was the last time we had a QB throw for nearly 5K yards? 

Nothing is guaranteed in life. Feels is the second rated quarterback only behind Trevor. Not exactly a high risk. Was it as your question if you deem it so yes I would take that risk.

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6 hours ago, KRL said:

So you make the trade, how do you contstruct the rest of the team?
What does your off-season look like with draft picks gone and cap
space swallowed up?

First of all, Watson's 2021 cap number would only be $10.5M for the team that trades for him (his big dollar extension kicks in in 2022. If the Jets deal for him, and they're smart, they probably shift about 10M of his 2023 roster bonus up to 2021, making his total cap hits: 20.5M (2021), 35M (22), 27M (23), 32M (24), 32M (25). That's nowhere close to cap crippling this offseason (they'd still have 63M left if they trade Darnold and cut Henry Anderson, which are basic moves if you're dealing for Watson),

Sign Allen Robinson (or Golladay or Godwin if by some miracle they hit the market). Resign Perriman, Poole, Maye, Maulet, Bring in Richard Sherman on a 1 year deal (he loves Saleh and would be ideal to teach our young CBs how to play in the system.

Use our draft picks on best available IOL (Rashawn Slater or Wyatt Davis at 23 is the dream), RB at 34 if Harris or Etienne are somehow available, otherwise edge or TE in the second. 

You could build a very very solid team around Watson that way

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50 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

I am all for keeping Sam and building the "boring" way.  For example I'd be thrilled using our 1st 3 picks on oline and get Thuney in free agency.  Basically trying to build the best oline known to man.

But Watson is just too good to ignore.  I think he's a top 4 QB... on a crap team while the other 3 are on good teams.  And he's only 25.

If we can get him for 3 firsts, I'm all for it.  Especially considering we have Seattle's firsts and decent compensation from trading Sam.

Thank god your not the Jets GM 🤯.

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2 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Thank god your not the Jets GM 🤯.

Ha, cause others have done so well.

Just look at our history though.  I'd argue that draft we got Brick n Nick was what gave us our few years of playoff runs.

QB may be the most important position.  But oline as a whole is the most important position group in the game.

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