Cimini Wants Watson, But Can't Afford Him

[addage]

Cimini--often annoying but always interesting--discusses the Watson to Jets idea.  Whole article is longer and worth reading.  I think I got the most important bits.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30736654/jets-all-texans-deshaun-watson-reality-stand-way

 

Will the Jets make an aggressive run at him? Call me skeptical, but the hunch is general manager Joe Douglas won't open his treasure chest of draft picks and trade them for one player.

 

The price would be exorbitant. You're talking about at least three first-round picks. Think about it: If Jamal Adams fetched two first-rounders -- a strong safety -- imagine the cost for a 25-year-old quarterback who has made three Pro Bowls and is signed through 2025.

Conventional thinking suggests pursuing Watson wouldn't be a wise move for the Jets, who fall into the "more than one player away" category. A fair concern, to be sure. Watson was brilliant this season -- 4,823 yards and 33 touchdown passes -- and the Texans went 4-12. So, yes, it takes more than a superstar quarterback.

If the Jets trade three first-rounders for Watson, they'd be mortgaging a significant part of their future and would have to rely heavily on NFL free agency to bring in talent -- not the optimal way to build a roster. Douglas created a rebuilding blueprint that hinges largely on that draft capital.

But you know what? Sometimes the best-laid plans need to be junked and remastered. Conventional thinking doesn't win championships.

I am also in the skeptical group.  How will the Jets rebuild if the trade away all those picks.  And why would Watson want to come here if we don't have the picks to build the roster.  I know this isn't popular but it just doesn't make sense to trade now even assuming the other side--including Watson who can veto any trade--agrees.

[Jets723]

Douglas seems to value draft picks and wants to  build through The draft.  If we had more established talent then fine go for Watson.  But the fact of the matter is that the Jets have more holes than any team in the NFL.  As we have seen in recent t years we can’t just rely on FA without overpaying them.   If they want to go in a new direction with WB that’s fine but let’s do it in a rookie deal plus having all these draft pucks to build around him

[southtown24th]

huh

[Joe W. Namath]

I want nothing to do w/ watson.  Build through the draft.  let the dolphins mortgage their future for a qb w/ 2 reconstructed knees.

[shuler82]

#1 there’s already 273 threads on Watson.

#2 it’s lazy reporting.  3 first rounders(2021,2022,2023) still leaves you with Seattle’s first in 2021 and 2022. Plus whatever they get from unloading Sam ...plus one of the best cap situations in football. All that with a franchise QB in place. 

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, addage said:

But you know what? Sometimes the best-laid plans need to be junked and remastered. Conventional thinking doesn't win championships.

This is really the only relevant part of this.  Nothing like this has ever happened before.  There's no comparison to be made.  Throw the playbook out of the window.  If a top 5 QB at age 25 is available, you go after him aggressively.  Period.

[derp]

I don’t think the Watson - Adams trade comparison really works out. Not all first round picks are created equal. The Jets have the #2 pick this year, that’s a huge trade chip.

Seattle is rolling the dice making the trade, obviously, but they almost always pick in the 20’s - playoffs 8 of the 10 years prior to making that trade and no worse than 7-9. The 23rd pick the Jets got is pretty good relative to where Seattle expects to draft. 

The #2 overall pick alone is worth almost three times the #23 pick. Plus the 2022 first gets discounted for being a year out. Pretty sure that pick by itself is worth more as a trade chip than everything Seattle gave up. 

Plus Seattle overpaid, Houston has a chance to be much more publicly backed into a corner, Adams didn’t have the power of a no trade clause to force his destination, etc.

Obviously Watson will return more than Adams but I think this is lazy from Cimini.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

1 minute ago, shuler82 said:

#1 there’s already 273 threads on Watson.

#2 it’s lazy reporting.  3 first rounders(2021,2022,2023) still leaves you with Seattle’s first in 2021 and 2022. Plus whatever they get from unloading Sam ...plus one of the best cap situations in football. All that with a franchise QB in place. 

The Jets have ****ed up the QB position more or less since Namath. It's insane the amount of resistance to taking an actual top 3-5 QB in the league. It's by far the hardest position to draft and develop and is the most important piece on a rebuild.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Douglas seems to value draft picks and wants to  build through The draft.  If we had more established talent then fine go for Watson.  But the fact of the matter is that the Jets have more holes than any team in the NFL.  As we have seen in recent t years we can’t just rely on FA without overpaying them.   If they want to go in a new direction with WB that’s fine but let’s do it in a rookie deal plus having all these draft pucks to build around him

Our biggest hole is at QB.  Eventually, heavy draft capital will need to be spent there, either via the # 2 pick in the upcoming draft or, potentially, by trading up in a future draft.  It's unavoidable.  And no one knows for sure if that pick at QB will hit.

Add Watson and we can still build around him via the draft.  That's the luxury we have after getting the picks in the Adams trade.

[static14]

5 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

I want nothing to do w/ watson.  Build through the draft.  let the dolphins mortgage their future for a qb w/ 2 reconstructed knees.

Namath’s knees were famously strong and surgery free right? 

[Untouchable]

[UntouchableCrew]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Our biggest hole is at QB.  Eventually, heavy draft capital will need to be spent there, either via the # 2 pick in the upcoming draft or, potentially, by trading up in a future draft.  It's unavoidable.  And no one knows for sure if that pick at QB will hit.

Add Watson and we can still build around him via the draft.  That's the luxury we have after getting the picks in the Adams trade.

A lot of the "we have more than one need" guys would be surprised to see how much better every player on the offense would look when you replace Darnold and Gase with Watson and LeFleur.

[QB1]

Just now, Untouchable said:

That is an idiotic trade. 

[QB1]

Just now, UntouchableCrew said:

A lot of the "we have more than one need" guys would be surprised to see how much better every player on the offense would look when you replace Darnold and Gase with Watson and LeFleur.

Texans went 4-12 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

12 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

#1 there’s already 273 threads on Watson.

#2 it’s lazy reporting.  3 first rounders(2021,2022,2023) still leaves you with Seattle’s first in 2021 and 2022. Plus whatever they get from unloading Sam ...plus one of the best cap situations in football. All that with a franchise QB in place. 

Exactly. They would remain in good shape to continue building. 

BUT I then think on the flip side of just trading down from #2. We'd have 2 1's this year, 3 1's next year and a number of 2nd or 3rd round picks. That's a huge opportunity to build out your team. 

Either way, we're in a great position. And I believe Douglas won't do anything stupid to mortgage the teams future. He knows he can't trade away everything and think we'll be fine. 

[Jets723]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Our biggest hole is at QB.  Eventually, heavy draft capital will need to be spent there, either via the # 2 pick in the upcoming draft or, potentially, by trading up in a future draft.  It's unavoidable.  And no one knows for sure if that pick at QB will hit.

Add Watson and we can still build around him via the draft.  That's the luxury we have after getting the picks in the Adams trade.

That’s fine.  But I still stand by what I said 

[RedBeardedSavage]

2 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

[Savage69]

12 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

I want nothing to do w/ watson.  Build through the draft.  let the dolphins mortgage their future for a qb w/ 2 reconstructed knees.

Dam that reminds me of Joe Willy and 1965..?

[Jets723]

1 minute ago, QB1 said:

Texans went 4-12 

Boom

[Paradis]

3 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Great. So we’re going to fleece our draft capital and then make Arob the highest paid WR in the nfl. meanwhile, every where else on the roster. 

sounds like the Jets. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

That’s fine.  But I still stand by what I said 

I get that Douglas wants to build through the draft.  Any GM worth his salt wants to do that.  But GM's also value job security.  There's no easier way to increase long-term job security than being set at QB for the next decade. 

Meanwhile, If Douglas were to take Fields/Wilson at # 2 overall (or kick the can down the road at QB) and have that pick miss, that would decrease job security.  No matter how much research you put in on QB's, you can still easily miss.

[Warfish]

23 minutes ago, addage said:

Cimini--often annoying but always interesting--discusses the Watson to Jets idea.  Whole article is longer and worth reading.  I think I got the most important bits.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30736654/jets-all-texans-deshaun-watson-reality-stand-way

 

Will the Jets make an aggressive run at him? Call me skeptical, but the hunch is general manager Joe Douglas won't open his treasure chest of draft picks and trade them for one player.

 

The price would be exorbitant. You're talking about at least three first-round picks. Think about it: If Jamal Adams fetched two first-rounders -- a strong safety -- imagine the cost for a 25-year-old quarterback who has made three Pro Bowls and is signed through 2025.

Conventional thinking suggests pursuing Watson wouldn't be a wise move for the Jets, who fall into the "more than one player away" category. A fair concern, to be sure. Watson was brilliant this season -- 4,823 yards and 33 touchdown passes -- and the Texans went 4-12. So, yes, it takes more than a superstar quarterback.

If the Jets trade three first-rounders for Watson, they'd be mortgaging a significant part of their future and would have to rely heavily on NFL free agency to bring in talent -- not the optimal way to build a roster. Douglas created a rebuilding blueprint that hinges largely on that draft capital.

But you know what? Sometimes the best-laid plans need to be junked and remastered. Conventional thinking doesn't win championships.

I am also in the skeptical group.  How will the Jets rebuild if the trade away all those picks.  And why would Watson want to come here if we don't have the picks to build the roster.  I know this isn't popular but it just doesn't make sense to trade now even assuming the other side--including Watson who can veto any trade--agrees.

So he's basically saying exactly what many of us already said here at JN.

[Untouchable]

Just now, QB1 said:

That is an idiotic trade. 

That’s in the ballpark of what you’ll have to give up for a 25 year old, borderline Top 5 QB.

It amazes me how some Jets fans think we’re going to land Watson for the same price Seattle paid for a box safety.

That trade would still leave the Jets with #23 this year, two 3rd’s, a 4th, two 5th’s, a 6th and a 7th. We’d probably add an extra 2nd/3rd after trading Darnold as well.

We’d also still have a 1st next year and all of our other picks minus the 4th rounder included in the Adams trade.

The Jets will have essentially traded Jamal Adams and a 2023 1st round pick for Deshaun Watson. What fan in their right mind wouldn’t make that deal?

[Untouchable]

1 minute ago, Paradis said:

Great. So we’re going to fleece our draft capital and then make Arob the highest paid WR in the nfl. meanwhile, every where else on the roster. 

sounds like the Jets. 

I doubt it happens anyway.

I fully expect the Jets to hang on to Darnold and trade down for more picks over the next two years.

Still fun to talk about.

[RedBeardedSavage]

6 minutes ago, QB1 said:

That is an idiotic trade. 

 

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Great. So we’re going to fleece our draft capital and then make Arob the highest paid WR in the nfl. meanwhile, every where else on the roster. 

sounds like the Jets. 

Forget the trade parameters for a second - because obviously that's too much

The dude is signaling if we got D Wat, he'd come to NY, no?. 

[nycdan]

7 minutes ago, QB1 said:

That is an idiotic trade. 

I think you missed the real point of that post (circled in red).

[Jets723]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I get that Douglas wants to build through the draft.  Any GM worth his salt wants to do that.  But GM's also value job security.  There's no easier way to increase long-term job security than being set at QB for the next decade. 

Meanwhile, If Douglas were to take Fields/Wilson at # 2 overall (or kick the can down the road at QB) and have that pick miss, that would decrease job security.  No matter how much research you put in on QB's, you can still easily miss.

I respect your opinion but I don’t see it happening.  Like I said if we had more talent and we’re closer to competing fine but this team has too many holes.  Having so much draft capital will not only build a team quicker but cheaper since they will be on rookie deals .  I think we can both agree that throwing a ton of money at a couple FA hasn’t worked out too well for us ? 

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Great. So we’re going to fleece our draft capital and then make Arob the highest paid WR in the nfl. meanwhile, every where else on the roster. 

sounds like the Jets. 

In theory, we can afford it.  The cap space is borderline a non-issue, as we have few costly vets of our own, and have underspent for ages.

Let's look at this hypothetical:

We'd have Watson at QB, Robinson, Mims, Crowder at WR.

We'd still have Darnold to trade away.

And we'd have 2021 #23, 2x 3rds, and the rest of our picks, we'd have a 2022 1st + the rest of our picks, and in 2023 we'd have no #1 pick, but would have the rest of our picks.

In theory, thats not horrible.  We'd still have plenty of picks, and likely still a good amount of cap space for other Veterans as needed.

Plus, Mosely would be back (in theory) in 2021 as well, helping the Defense quite a bit (we hope).

Getting all those picks for Adams makes this more workable that it looks on it's face.

[slimjasi]

I tend to agree with Cimini that Douglas will be extremely reluctant to trade away too much of his draft capital. 

Unfortunately, I think the bidding war will make the price considerably higher than 3 first round picks. Something more like 3 1sts and 3 2nds. At the end of the day, I don't see Douglas doing that. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

I respect your opinion but I don’t see it happening.  Like I said if we had more talent and we’re closer to competing fine but this team has too many holes.  Having so much draft capital will not only build a team quicker but cheaper since they will be on rookie deals .  I think we can both agree that throwing a ton of money at a couple FA hasn’t worked out too well for us ? 

True, but that's because the team constantly went after the WRONG free agents under Maccagnan.

Trade for Watson, and you can pretty much guarantee that the Jets will be able to add a legitimate WR1 in free agency.  

[Jets723]

18 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think the Watson - Adams trade comparison really works out. Not all first round picks are created equal. The Jets have the #2 pick this year, that’s a huge trade chip.

Seattle is rolling the dice making the trade, obviously, but they almost always pick in the 20’s - playoffs 8 of the 10 years prior to making that trade and no worse than 7-9. The 23rd pick the Jets got is pretty good relative to where Seattle expects to draft. 

The #2 overall pick alone is worth almost three times the #23 pick. Plus the 2022 first gets discounted for being a year out. Pretty sure that pick by itself is worth more as a trade chip than everything Seattle gave up. 

Plus Seattle overpaid, Houston has a chance to be much more publicly backed into a corner, Adams didn’t have the power of a no trade clause to force his destination, etc.

Obviously Watson will return more than Adams but I think this is lazy from Cimini.

Well Seattle was already built to be a contender before Adams.  Yes they overpaid and I’m glad they did but much different situation.  We have easily the worst roster so throwing away 3 first round picks including a top 3 pick won’t help build a team.  Yes a proven QB is great but if you don’t have talent around them it’s not going to work.  That’s just a fact of the NFL

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

People are acting like draft picks are gaurentees. Half of them will bust.

You don't want to trade Watson for 3 or 4 1st rounders? We got 2 gifted to us from Seattle. We would basically only be trading 1or 2 of our own picks. 

What if we keep all those picks and they become dee milliner, Calvin Pryor, leonard Williams and Darron Lee. (Our 1st rd draft picks from 2013-2016) 

Watson is a proven commodity. Draft picks arent.

[Jets723]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

True, but that's because the team constantly went after the WRONG free agents under Maccagnan.

Trade for Watson, and you can pretty much guarantee that the Jets will be able to add a legitimate WR1 in free agency.  

Obviously I don’t know what Douglas Is thinking but based on what I’ve seen I dont see him throwing away that much draft capital especially a top 2 pick.  

[ScarletKnight89]

Just because the Seahawks were dumb enough to offer 2 first round picks for a safety, doesn't mean that sets the market for all future trades going forward. Cause if that's the case, people aren't going to be making many. At least when it comes to trading top players.

That was a really bad trade for Seattle. 

[prime21]

That is an idiotic trade. 

We have five 1st round picks this year through 2023 and in this deal we only give up two. The only time we won’t have a 1st rounder is 2023. That’s not idiotic.


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