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Cimini Wants Watson, But Can't Afford Him


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14 minutes ago, QB1 said:

That is an idiotic trade. 

Its absurd..  34th almost a 1st rounder and the 2nd pick can be flipped for another first plus.

Pretty much 5 first rounders plus..

Nope.  JD ain't doing that.

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#1 there’s already 273 threads on Watson. #2 it’s lazy reporting.  3 first rounders(2021,2022,2023) still leaves you with Seattle’s first in 2021 and 2022. Plus whatever they get from unloading S

This is really the only relevant part of this.  Nothing like this has ever happened before.  There's no comparison to be made.  Throw the playbook out of the window.  If a top 5 QB at age 25 is availa

I don’t think the Watson - Adams trade comparison really works out. Not all first round picks are created equal. The Jets have the #2 pick this year, that’s a huge trade chip. Seattle is rolling

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2 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

People are acting like draft picks are gaurentees. Half of them will bust.

You don't want to trade Watson for 3 or 4 1st rounders? We got 2 gifted to us from Seattle. We would basically only be trading 1or 2 of our own picks. 

What if we keep all those picks and they become dee milliner, Calvin Pryor, leonard Williams and Darron Lee. (Our 1st rd draft picks from 2013-2016) 

Watson is a proven commodity. Draft picks arent.

 

It's laughable how a lot of the same people who distrust that Joe Douglas will make smart picks are also suggesting that trading for Watson would be insane, since we'd be giving up 3 draft pick studs in the deal.

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

It's laughable how a lot of the same people who distrust that Joe Douglas will make smart picks are also suggesting that trading for Watson would be insane, since we'd be giving up 3 draft pick studs in the deal.

I'll be sure to @ you when JD says we're rolling with Sammy.

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29 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

#1 there’s already 273 threads on Watson.

#2 it’s lazy reporting.  3 first rounders(2021,2022,2023) still leaves you with Seattle’s first in 2021 and 2022. Plus whatever they get from unloading Sam ...plus one of the best cap situations in football. All that with a franchise QB in place. 

 

18 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Exactly. They would remain in good shape to continue building. 

BUT I then think on the flip side of just trading down from #2. We'd have 2 1's this year, 3 1's next year and a number of 2nd or 3rd round picks. That's a huge opportunity to build out your team. 

Either way, we're in a great position. And I believe Douglas won't do anything stupid to mortgage the teams future. He knows he can't trade away everything and think we'll be fine. 

First off, I agree it is lazy reporting, it's basically the same sh*t we've been discussing on a forum.

With that said, if you read his article, he's starts it off by saying it will take at least 3 first round picks. I think a lot of what I'm seeing from posters in favor of the trade is this fantasy that,  that's all it's going to take to get Watson. To start, the Texans are going to want our 4 1st rounders in the next 2 years. 

And if we talk about cap space, we won't be in good shape. We'd have our FQB taking up 40 mil in cap space, what free agents do we sign? How do you work that out with the future signings of Williams and Becton? 

Our roster is so bereft of talent that if we ever made this trade it would take years of great late round drafting for it to pay off. 

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Again, ultimately I just don’t see it happening but I keep reading the “build through the draft” crowd say Douglas won’t do it. 
 

my thought is yes, while that is his preferred method, there are always exceptions to the rule. 
 

watson is young, proven and entering his prime. If this was an older QB like say Matt Ryan, then yes, I could see valuing the pucks more but we are talking such a rare scenario of a caliber player like this potentially being available. This isn’t an “every offseason available caliber player”. This is the exception to the rule. I mean Jesus, look what Kirk Cousins generated(I know he was a free agent, but still) and Watson is leaps and bounds better than Kirk. 


His cap number is very low this year and we can still build. I think people aren’t remembering what it was like spending money on players to field a team that can contend. 
 

im not saying to go “Full Tanny” but we have the cash to spend right now and we can still have room to build in the draft. 
 

I feel I’m a pretty levelheaded fan. I don’t see why so many people are so against this. I really don’t. 

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29 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Douglas seems to value draft picks and wants to  build through The draft

Of course, the opportunity of having an all pro QB would never interrupt his decision making process.

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5 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

And if we talk about cap space, we won't be in good shape. We'd have our FQB taking up 40 mil in cap space, what free agents do we sign? How do you work that out with the future signings of Williams and Becton? 

It's already been demonstrated in numerous threads that this is false.  He'd only cost $11M against the cap in 2021, and about $30-35M per year after that.  

The Jets are projected to have over $60M in cap space this season (prior to cutting guys like, say, Henry Anderson, which would save over $9M), and at this moment over $130M in cap space in 2022.  We can easily absorb this AND add quality free agents AND re-sign our own guys.

We're in tremendous cap shape thanks in large part to Douglas working hard to get us in that situation.  All that's left to do now is to use those dollars wisely.  A franchise QB at age 25, with a reasonable contract, would be a great start.

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8 minutes ago, Pac said:

Its absurd..  34th almost a 1st rounder and the 2nd pick can be flipped for another first plus.

Pretty much 5 first rounders plus..

Nope.  JD ain't doing that.

Agreed 

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31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Our biggest hole is at QB.  Eventually, heavy draft capital will need to be spent there, either via the # 2 pick in the upcoming draft or, potentially, by trading up in a future draft.  It's unavoidable.   

Not every team uses heavy draft capital at QB 

Start James Morgan 

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1 minute ago, chrisfaceoff said:

I feel I’m a pretty levelheaded fan. I don’t see why so many people are so against this. I really don’t. 

I try to explain from our side. And it's the fundamental disagreement on how much it's going to cost to get Watson. 

I have seen posters in this thread that think a package of 3 first rd picks, that includes a 2023 first, is somehow going to get Watson. It's not. The starting price will be at least our 4 first rounders in the next 2 years. 

So, if we did that, where does that put us? IMO it puts us in the exact position Houston is in right now, excecpt with a happy Watson. We'd have very little talent outside of the QB. And at that point, for everyone devaluing draft picks, we would still need to build through the draft, except we have to hope we hit on later round picks. 

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40 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is really the only relevant part of this.  Nothing like this has ever happened before.  There's no comparison to be made.  Throw the playbook out of the window.  If a top 5 QB at age 25 is available, you go after him aggressively.  Period.

This. When has this ever happened, btw?

I also don't think it's going to cost 3 first rounders. The only reason it gets to this point is that Watson is in control. He is going to decide where he goes and that reduces the bidding significantly.

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Honestly I’m dumbfounded at the number of pro-Watson posters who refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of the alternative, which is to sit and build through the draft...

”that’s stupid, we’ll be fine”

lol are u fcking kidding me? 

It’s not confusing as to why cutting to the chase and trading for Watson has its benefits. But there is a naïveté about how the rest of the team is just going to organically evolve around that decision. You can’t buy a championship. God knows how many teams like MIN have tried and failed.

There’s a reason why we have 4 firsts. This team SUCKS. you’re god damn right there’s merit in entertaining drafting over trading. 

looking at the two years those pics span over,

  • we have a left tackle, a receiver, and a corner. That’s it.
  • Maye's got a couple years at best left in him,
  • those Band-Aid lineman will be gone in two years, as well Crowder just about anyone else listed on offense.
  • We all know CJ Mosley‘s gonna be half the guy he was when we signed him. Hasn’t played a full season in two years.
  • We kind a have a Dline. Kinda. No pass rush but some trench warriors. 

Don’t waste my time pretending the ONLY sensible thing to do is to write a blank check to HOU.  Just don’t.  

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2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

This. When has this ever happened, btw?

I also don't think it's going to cost 3 first rounders. The only reason it gets to this point is that Watson is in control. He is going to decide where he goes and that reduces the bidding significantly.

Never.  The closest comparison would be when the Chargers let Brees walk in free agency.  But there are of course three important differences (at least) from that situation when compared to the Texans-Watson situation:  1) Brees had suffered a dislocation of his throwing shoulder, as well as a tear of his labrum and rotator cuff, 9 months prior; 2) The Chargers had Rivers on the roster (the Texans have no alternative options); and 3) he was, of course, a free agent, not traded.

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6 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

I try to explain from our side. And it's the fundamental disagreement on how much it's going to cost to get Watson. 

I have seen posters in this thread that think a package of 3 first rd picks, that includes a 2023 first, is somehow going to get Watson. It's not. The starting price will be at least our 4 first rounders in the next 2 years. 

So, if we did that, where does that put us? IMO it puts us in the exact position Houston is in right now, excecpt with a happy Watson. We'd have very little talent outside of the QB. And at that point, for everyone devaluing draft picks, we would still need to build through the draft, except we have to hope we hit on later round picks. 

Awesome Post!!!  I think some think we are being difficult for petty reasons but that’s not the case.  This will cost probably double the Adams trade which we all agree was a Kings ransom for yes thankfully.  The problem is we have such a lack of talent and I’m not talking about just a few holes but pretty much everywhere.  Giving away 3-4 first round picks don’t help that get any better.  I know some don’t want to hear this but if you don’t surround  a QB with talent you arent going very far no matter how talented they are 

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Listen to GreenBean's latest podcast #5. Our Jets are one of the few teams that can even afford Watson. Texans are far over the cap and would ideally dump Watson"s salary and start over. Watson has a no trade clause so would have to agree.  We could be in the drivers seat

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's already been demonstrated in numerous threads that this is false.  He'd only cost $11M against the cap in 2021, and about $30-35M per year after that.  

The Jets are projected to have over $60M in cap space this season (prior to cutting guys like, say, Henry Anderson, which would save over $9M), and at this moment over $130M in cap space in 2022.  We can easily absorb this AND add quality free agents AND re-sign our own guys.

We're in tremendous cap shape thanks in large part to Douglas working hard to get us in that situation.  All that's left to do now is to use those dollars wisely.  A franchise QB at age 25, with a reasonable contract, would be a great start.

Ahh man, I love that you say it's false but then go on to prove what I said right with actual numbers (cap hit of 35 & 37 mil in 2022,2023). You don't go on a FA spending frezny because of the cap implications after this year. So go ahead and sign thuney and Robinson, because that's all we'd be able to afford on bigger contracts. 

We're not winning a championship unless we hit on later round draft picks in your scenario. 

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22 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Well Seattle was already built to be a contender before Adams.  Yes they overpaid and I’m glad they did but much different situation.  We have easily the worst roster so throwing away 3 first round picks including a top 3 pick won’t help build a team.  Yes a proven QB is great but if you don’t have talent around them it’s not going to work.  That’s just a fact of the NFL

That’s not really a response to my post. I was arguing Cimini’s comparison was bad - which it is.

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31 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

That’s in the ballpark of what you’ll have to give up for a 25 year old, borderline Top 5 QB.

It amazes me how some Jets fans think we’re going to land Watson for the same price Seattle paid for a box safety.

That trade would still leave the Jets with #23 this year, two 3rd’s, a 4th, two 5th’s, a 6th and a 7th. We’d probably add an extra 2nd/3rd after trading Darnold as well.

We’d also still have a 1st next year and all of our other picks minus the 4th rounder included in the Adams trade.

The Jets will have essentially traded Jamal Adams and a 2023 1st round pick for Deshaun Watson. What fan in their right mind wouldn’t make that deal?

You’re forgetting about the 2nd overall pick 

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1 minute ago, Paradis said:

Honestly I’m dumbfounded at the number of pro-Watson posters who refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of the alternative, which is to sit and build to the draft...

”that’s stupid, we’ll be fine”

lol are u fcking kidding me? 

It’s not confusing as to why cutting to the chase and trading for Watson has its benefits. But there is a naïveté about how the rest of the team is just going to organically evolve around that decision. You can’t buy a championship. God knows how many teams like MIN have tried and failed.

There’s a reason why we have 4 firsts. This team SUCKS. you’re god damn right there’s merit in entertaining drafting over trading. 

looking at the two years those pics span over, we had a left tackle a receiver in the corner. That’s it. Babies got a couple years at best of them, those Band-Aid lineman will be gone in two years, as well Crowder just about anyone else listed on offense. We all know CJ Mosley‘s gonna be half the guy he was will be signed them, he hasn’t played a full season in two years. We kind a have a Dline. Kinda. No pass rush but some trench warriors. 

Don’t waste my time pretending the ONLY sensible thing to do is to write a blank check to HOU.  Just don’t.  

 

We suck in large part because this franchise hasn't had a real QB since Namath.

Building through the draft is great, and can help to build a core to go along with Becton, Mims and Quinnen Williams.  But you have to find a QB as part of that core, or its all for naught.  And all signs thus far point to the Jets not currently being sold on the QB's in this draft class outside of Lawrence.  

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7 minutes ago, Bronx said:

Sure and I'll be rooting for Sam Howell's sweepstake!

Suck for Sam tshirts can be reused

that's recycling *taps head*

here's an idea there's no such thing as a savior

Trevor would have been Joe Burrowed in this town by week 4

build a car then worry about the driver

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33 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Great. So we’re going to fleece our draft capital and then make Arob the highest paid WR in the nfl. meanwhile, every where else on the roster. 

sounds like the Jets. 

luckily for the most part, this front office hasn't operated like the jets FO of the past.  I fully expect us to navigate the foibles that have plagued this organization for decades. 

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3 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Ahh man, I love that you say it's false but then go on to prove what I said right with actual numbers (cap hit of 35 & 37 mil in 2022,2023). You don't go on a FA spending frezny because of the cap implications after this year. So go ahead and sign thuney and Robinson, because that's all we'd be able to afford on bigger contracts. 

We're not winning a championship unless we hit on later round draft picks in your scenario. 

We're not winning a championship without a QB, either.  At least my path locks in the most important piece.  And no, we wouldn't only be relying on later round picks.  We'd still have a first rounder or 2 left between now and 2023, depending on which 1sts Douglas gives up.  Plus we'd get pick(s) back after trading Darnold.

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4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Honestly I’m dumbfounded at the number of pro-Watson posters who refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of the alternative, which is to sit and build through the draft...

”that’s stupid, we’ll be fine”

lol are u fcking kidding me? 

It’s not confusing as to why cutting to the chase and trading for Watson has its benefits. But there is a naïveté about how the rest of the team is just going to organically evolve around that decision. You can’t buy a championship. God knows how many teams like MIN have tried and failed.

There’s a reason why we have 4 firsts. This team SUCKS. you’re god damn right there’s merit in entertaining drafting over trading. 

looking at the two years those pics span over,

  • we had a left tackle a receiver in the corner. That’s it.
  • Maye's got a couple years at best of them,
  • those Band-Aid lineman will be gone in two years, as well Crowder just about anyone else listed on offense.
  • We all know CJ Mosley‘s gonna be half the guy he was will be signed them, he hasn’t played a full season in two years.
  • We kind a have a Dline. Kinda. No pass rush but some trench warriors. 

Don’t waste my time pretending the ONLY sensible thing to do is to write a blank check to HOU.  Just don’t.  

You can sit and build through the draft until the cows come home and it still won't matter if you don't have a legitimate quarterback. I'm dumbfounded at the number of anti-Watson posters who refuse to acknowledge that the Jets haven't drafted a franchise QB in over 50 years but think we magically will in the next 3-4 once the team is "ready". 

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4 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Ahh man, I love that you say it's false but then go on to prove what I said right with actual numbers (cap hit of 35 & 37 mil in 2022,2023). You don't go on a FA spending frezny because of the cap implications after this year. So go ahead and sign thuney and Robinson, because that's all we'd be able to afford on bigger contracts. 

We're not winning a championship unless we hit on later round draft picks in your scenario. 

Agreed.  

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34 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I think you missed the real point of that post (circled in red).

No I saw it, I’d probably do it if it guarantees Robinson. But my first reaction is that it’s too much. 

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1 minute ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I'm shocked at how many people don't want deshaun watson.

Shocked. 

It makes 0 sense to me.

Seattle gifted us 2 1st rounders. We add in 2 of our own and we have a franchise qb for the next 15 years.

What am I missing? 

 

But we have Sammy :(

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5 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Ahh man, I love that you say it's false but then go on to prove what I said right with actual numbers (cap hit of 35 & 37 mil in 2022,2023). You don't go on a FA spending frezny because of the cap implications after this year. So go ahead and sign thuney and Robinson, because that's all we'd be able to afford on bigger contracts. 

We're not winning a championship unless we hit on later round draft picks in your scenario. 

And you said $40M per and that's false.  You are forgetting that much of the bonus money owed to Watson would have to get paid out by Houston after trading him here.  The amount the Jets would be left to pay Watson would be very reasonable for a franchise QB. 

You seem to operate like nobody has to pay QB's like we'd have to pay Watson.  It's a silly aspect of the argument.  Franchise QB's get paid, period.  And for the most part they deserve every penny.  If the Jets draft Fields at # 2 overall, they'd eventually have to pay him a lot more than Watson would be getting.

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4 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Ahh man, I love that you say it's false but then go on to prove what I said right with actual numbers (cap hit of 35 & 37 mil in 2022,2023). You don't go on a FA spending frezny because of the cap implications after this year. So go ahead and sign thuney and Robinson, because that's all we'd be able to afford on bigger contracts. 

We're not winning a championship unless we hit on later round draft picks in your scenario. 

Being against the trade because you would have to pay a top QB what top QB's earn is one of the dumbest things I've ever read. I guess every team that has a franchise QB not on a rookie deal should just start tearing apart their teams since they obviously won't be able to win paying a QB over $30M/year. 

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

We suck in large part because this franchise hasn't had a real QB since Namath.

Building through the draft is great, and can help to build a core to go along with Becton, Mims and Quinnen Williams.  But you have to find a QB as part of that core, or its all for naught.  And all signs thus far point to the Jets not currently being sold on the QB's in this draft class outside of Lawrence.  

go back and reread. You and to a lesser extend @Warfish are arguing in some cosmic universe where you think the Jets are ready to compete in 2021 or 2022... we'll be LUCKY FCKING DUCKS if we are competitive in 2022. And all of the guys you're forgetting that like Crowder, Maye, 4/5 of our Oline etc will all be leaving or sucking by then. 

Realistically this team isn't making a deep playoff run until 2023... that's if EVERYTHING worked out. We are the worst team in the NFL right now. Watson doesn't accelerate that projection by 24 months -- if that was true they'd be playing KC right now.

Not debating how valuable Watson is, but some of you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to managing the other 52

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3 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

You can sit and build through the draft until the cows come home and it still won't matter if you don't have a legitimate quarterback. I'm dumbfounded at the number of anti-Watson posters who refuse to acknowledge that the Jets haven't drafted a franchise QB in over 50 years but think we magically will in the next 3-4 once the team is "ready". 

BNG-L-NFC0106-20-1.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

go back and reread. You and to a lesser extend @Warfish are arguing in some cosmic universe where you think the Jets are ready to compete in 2021 or 2022... we'll be LUCKY FCKING DUCKS if we are competitive in 2022. And all of the guys you're assuming like Crowder, Maye, 4/5 of our Oline etc will all be leaving or sucking by then. 

Realistically this team isn't making a deep playoff run until 2023... that's if EVERYTHING worked out. We are the worst team in the NFL right now. Watson doesn't accelerate that projection by 24 months -- if that was true they'd be playing KC right now.

I'm not debating how valuable Watson is - but some of you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to manage the other 52

 

Watson is 25.  It doesn't matter if the team isn't ready to compete until 2023.  Watson would only be 28 by then.  Plenty of great years ahead.  

And my argument is it wouldn't take nearly that long to compete.  The entire roster will look a lot better with Watson under center (plus the new coaching staff).

Adding Watson helps the other 52 spots far more than you seem to be willing to admit.  You love the draft more than most so that clouds things a bit too.

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