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I don't want Watson, I want a better team


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6 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Strawman argument.

People aren't advocating trading 6 picks.  Most are saying three firsts. 

 

I never proposed such nonsense and would be shocked to see JD do it.  Nor would I send 3 #1’s.  Yet be my guest. 

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We just saw what can happen when Deshaun Watson is on a team lacking talent - he goes 4-12. We are so much farther away from contending than just a QB. We need all the help we can get, we need al

I also want the Jets to suck forever

4 first round picks? No. 3? Maybe, depending on the picks 2? Yes Everything is dependent on price

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9 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

I never proposed such nonsense and would be shocked to see JD do it.  Nor would I send 3 #1’s.  Yet be my guest. 

Three firsts are not a huge price.  We're already going to spend 2nd overall for a QB so that's a wash.

So it's 2 additional firsts.  Watson can play for 15 more years. 

I'd rather have Watson than (Fields + Quinnen + Mekhi).

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9 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Three firsts are not a huge price.  We're already going to spend 2nd overall for a QB so that's a wash.

So it's 2 additional firsts.  Watson can play for 15 more years. 

I'd rather have Watson than (Fields + Quinnen + Mekhi).

And you know it will cost more than that. 3 1st’s and then some. I’ll go with Wilson/Fields, a top CB prospect, edge, G package with those picks. And that’s just using the picks this year. Next year we have 2#1’s. Let the rebuild unfold. 

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Here is how I could view a trade for Watson happening, taking into account JDs stated principles.

First, and this is important: Houston is not trading Watson they are unloading Watson to recover cap and draft picks to build a team ruined by the GM incompetence of making the head coach GM.

Second, Watson has a no trade clause. 

Both of these things limit what Houston can get in a trade because they are leveraged.

So what you do is look into a sign and trade scenario.

There is value in saving Houston additional cap space. So after the terms of the compensation is agreed upon, the Jets negotiate a new contract with Watson  that moves all existing salary cap figures into bonuses. Watson likely gets more money in there as well and you lock him up for 5 years minimum. Houston signs him to that deal and trades him to the Jets, and Houston has no dead money.

Renegotiating now also locks Watson into only wanting to approve the Jets.

Looking at the Osweiler trade that is worth a 2nd pick.

Most people seem to think that he is worth 3 #s, but Houston also just need picks.

So value for trade is 3 #1s minus a 2nd as starting point. But it's a QB so look at that as a 2nd in addition to the three #1 value

So far value let's look at 3 Top 10 picks.

This years #1 is 1300, next years #1 is 480 and we count the next #1 as 480= 2260. Mid round 2nd is worth around 400, so we should shoot for around 1800 total

Our #2 is worth 2600. 

But another thing to consider is that Houston needs quantity of picks as well.

So

Seattle #1 = 760, 

Next years Seattle pick= 380

Our 2nd this year=  560

So that is 1700 points, but Houston just needs picks, so

Now we have around 100 points to go so a fifth this year and a 4th next year get you there.

So the trade would be: #23, next years 2nd first, #2 this year (painful) 5th and next years fourth

If they want Darnold you change the 2nd to a third

If they insist on #2 you do it straight up for Watson.

But if you do the trade I suggest you still have the #2 pick, which is worth more than everything we gave up for Watson. We can probably get at least 2 firsts a and a third for it.

So we wind up with Watson, 3#1s next a year, likely still at top 10 pick and 2 3rds instead of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and no fourth next year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Look at the prospective players you will get with draft capital, especially after a trade down rather than just lumping in '1st rounders'

A pro bowl calibre Qb vs a digit is a no brainier.

It becomes more of a decision when you look at the players and assets you can parlay from a top 2 pick (a trade down) and your other picks.

And no you do not HAVE to use #2 on a Qb if you do not go after Watson.

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7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yes they did a good job on their OL. How many 1st rounders did they use to build that OL? Answer: zero.

As far as their WR, that was a different scenario in that there will be this year in landing a “#1” type veteran WR. In 2021 there will be FAs at least on par with Diggs (who was then #2 or maybe 1b to Thielen, not the only serious threat on the team who still got open despite double-teams & more). None we sign would cost the 1st rounder Buffalo spent on Diggs.

So to your point, if the Bills can build an OL without going crazy with high 1st round picks and multiple 8-figure/year FAs, why can’t the Jets?

I totally get where you’re coming from — nobody (me included) likes the idea of giving up upwards of 3 1st round picks for a QB. The reality is if they don’t then yet another season is in the toilet before it starts (which itself is a lot to in-effect trade away), and for all we know they’ll draft Sewell at #2 this year and then use the other 2 of those 3 1st rounders to move up to draft a QB next year who could be another Darnold, or at the earliest & most optimistic would only make the team realistic SB contenders by 2023. 

So if given the potential choice (a choice that has a good chance of occurring) of Sewell at #2 this year, plus a 1st round QB we draft with a pair of 1s next year vs. trading for Watson this year, I take the latter 10x out of 10 to avoid that. 

Yes there are other ways it could play out where not making the trade ends up better, but everyone’s got their comfort zone. I think it’s harder to find a QB like Watson than it is to build a team around Watson after your starting point is Watson in his prime. We’re guessing either way. In the past I’d have chosen the picks but Watson is unique enough to tip the table the other way for me. 

I originally was NOT in the camp of trading three first round picks.  But I think there is a way they can do this WITHOUT trading the #2 pick and still get Watson.  Then, they can trade out of the #2 multiple times and recoup all the picks they trade (or, at least a good chunk of them).

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41 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is like a Formula 1 team saying we don’t need an elite driver let’s focus on a better pit crew.

It's a really bizarre argument, especially when we see the reigning champs did exactly what people around here wanted to do - build a good team with a decent QB(Alex Smith era KC Chief) - only to find out that the team had a glass ceiling because they were hamstrung with mediocre QB play.

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25 minutes ago, QB1 said:

Deshaun Watson has become the most overrated player in the history of this forum over the course of a week.

Nope, that’s still Darnold, nico.

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Only Jet Fans would doubt a 25 year old stud who threw 33 touchdowns and 7 ints last year and prior to last year led his team to two double digit win seasons? Yea they went 4-12 last year?

Whats your guys standard, the damn messiah?

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9 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

I originally was NOT in the camp of trading three first round picks.  But I think there is a way they can do this WITHOUT trading the #2 pick and still get Watson.  Then, they can trade out of the #2 multiple times and recoup all the picks they trade (or, at least a good chunk of them).

They can but it’s pretty unlikely. You’d have to wait for the draft to start to do that, and the iron is hot now not 3 months from now. Houston’s not letting this problem linger through the entire free agency period.

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12 hours ago, QB1 said:

Deshaun Watson has become the most overrated player in the history of this forum over the course of a week.

At least the Justin fields lovefest ended

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On 1/19/2021 at 5:41 PM, T0mShane said:

Name two of the Packers starting offensive linemen without Googling it

Hell, name two players on the Packers' team that's not named Rogers and Davis without googling it.

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13 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

They can but it’s pretty unlikely. You’d have to wait for the draft to start to do that, and the iron is hot now not 3 months from now. Houston’s not letting this problem linger through the entire free agency period.

Again, this is all conjecture.  My guess he doesn't even get moved.  Its like this with anything in the NFL.  There are only about 5 guys in the world who can carry an NFL team on his back.  I mean, let's say Patrick Mahomes wants out of KC.  Every team would line up.  WHO WOULDN'T!  But realistically, could you get the 7 1st round picks out of a team to get value, and how good could the team get to be if the price was that much?

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On 1/19/2021 at 5:49 PM, jetstream23 said:

2020 Winning Percentage

Deshaun Watson - 25%

Sam Darnold - 17%

 

We want to give up a bunch of 1st round picks for what again?

I'm quite positive Darnold's winning percentage would be 0% if he played for the Texans.

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After staring at this thread title for the last week or so, it pains me to declare it to be a finalist in the "Dumbest thread titles ever" contest.  Whenever Max sets the date.

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On 1/24/2021 at 8:12 PM, STLuLu said:

I'm quite positive Darnold's winning percentage would be 0% if he played for the Texans.

The Texans had a better roster and coach and it’s really not even close

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