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NFL Draft Bust Rate Over 25 years For QB's, WR and Oline.


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Some perspective for those out there that would consider passing on a young possible HOF QB because of draft picks. Half of which will likely bust.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

These stats are from a few years ago but they're over a 25 year sample so its pretty significant. 

 

Deshaun Watson is going to cost 3 First round picks and likely more. This is an absolute steal. Literally ANY deal you make with the Texans that doesn't include guaranty YOUNG, CHEAP, Proven talent is an ABSOLUTE steal. For example Trading 1.2, Quinnen and Becton would be a bad deal bc young proven talent is the hardest thing to find. If this was a deal in the MLB you could trade Watson for several young minors that have a much higher chance of panning out. 

But the NFL is different and that is why ANY trade the Texans make here is going to be absolutely horrible. Why? Because the bust rate in the NFL is ridiculously high. I choose Top Ten picks which is the best of the best yearly and still they are horrible. 

Deshaun has been a Multiple Pro Bowl player and if he simply repeats this years numbers he will be an All Pro soon. He even has a shot at Multiple All Pro Seasons. 

The chances of getting a multiple year All Pro at QB using ONLY top ten picks is 3%. 

The chances of getting a multiple year Pro Bowler at QB using only top ten picks is 39%. 

The chances of your pick busting is 36%. Thats top ten picks people! 

So lets say we were to over THREE top 10 picks (which we are not). The chances of them getting a All pro is almost impossible. Odds say chances of them getting Pro Bowl QB are against them. Odds of the pick straight out busting and being a complete waste are 36%. 

The odds of the Jets getting a Multiple year Pro Bowl Player? 100%. Chances of Jets getting a potential All Pro season yearly? Very High. 

Lastly please note when your trading draft picks in the 20's the bust rate is even higher. 

P.S. Someone is going to look really dumb drafting Devonte Smith top 10. Super High bust rate with WR's early. Even higher with players his size. I'm not the biggest Sewell guy but they are certainly the safest picks out there. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Some perspective for those out there that would consider passing on a young possible HOF QB because of draft picks. Half of which will likely bust.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

These stats are from a few years ago but they're over a 25 year sample so its pretty significant. 

 

Desean Watson is going to cost 3 First round picks and likely more. This is an absolute steal. Literally ANY deal you make with the Texans that doesn't include guaranty YOUNG, CHEAP, Proven talent is an ABSOLUTE steal. For example Trading 1.2, Quinnen and Becton would be a bad deal bc young proven talent is the hardest thing to find. If this was a deal in the MLB you could trade Watson for several young minors that have a much higher chance of panning out. 

But the NFL is different and that is why ANY trade the Texans make here is going to be absolutely horrible. Why? Because the bust rate in the NFL is ridiculously high. I choose Top Ten picks which is the best of the best yearly and still they are horrible. 

Desean has been a Multiple Pro Bowl player and if he simply repeats this years numbers he will be an All Pro soon. He even has a shot at Multiple All Pro Seasons. 

The chances of getting a multiple year All Pro at QB using ONLY top ten picks is 3%. 

The chances of getting a multiple year Pro Bowler at QB using only top ten picks is 39%. 

The chances of your pick busting is 36%. Thats top ten picks people! 

So lets say we were to over THREE top 10 picks (which we are not). The chances of them getting a All pro is almost impossible. Odds say chances of them getting Pro Bowl QB are against them. Odds of the pick straight out busting and being a complete waste are 36%. 

The odds of the Jets getting a Multiple year Pro Bowl Player? 100%. Chances of Jets getting a potential All Pro season yearly? 100%.

Lastly please note when your trading draft picks in the 20's the bust rate is even higher. 

P.S. Someone is going to look really dumb drafting Devonte Smith top 10. Super High bust rate with WR's early. Even higher with players his size. I'm not the biggest Sewell guy but they are certainly the safest picks out there. 

 

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Couple things you have to adjust for. Multiple picks theoretically reduce the bust rates and increase all pro rates. So that is what needs to be looked at for Watson. If you are looking only at QB I agree with your analysis. Something to also consider is that OL can often succeed at a different position instead of busting. It makes them appear to be safer when in fact they may not be. Safe to say if Sewell couldn’t cut it at LT and ended up being an all pro LG you’re gonna be a bit bummed with that as your #2 pick. But in this system it’s considered a win it would appear. 

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47 minutes ago, TheMo said:

Couple things you have to adjust for. Multiple picks theoretically reduce the bust rates and increase all pro rates. So that is what needs to be looked at for Watson. If you are looking only at QB I agree with your analysis. Something to also consider is that OL can often succeed at a different position instead of busting. It makes them appear to be safer when in fact they may not be. Safe to say if Sewell couldn’t cut it at LT and ended up being an all pro LG you’re gonna be a bit bummed with that as your #2 pick. But in this system it’s considered a win it would appear. 

Totally agree on Oline with you. As mentioned Sewell's chances of multiple Pro Bowls is very high with a very low bust rate 

Just like Flipping a coin the chances of success for draft picks remains the same. For ex they could draft a QB 3x and all three could bust with a bust rate of (36% each time). 

Heres another good read. 

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

Quote
  • Only half of top-10 quarterback picks ever hit the 4,000 yard OR 24 TD milestones in a season.
  • First-round running backs generally see plenty of action and are the safest bet by far. Beware the long-term shelf life though.
  • Only 49% of first-round WR ever hit 1,000 yards in a season. The stat is virtually the same for top-10 picks.
  • No tight end in our sample put up 900 yards in any of his first three years, and only one had 10+ touchdowns.

 

Drafting a WR high is just a terrible move. Imagine drafting all 150 pounds of Devonte Smith at the 3rd pick if your Miami when its the best FA WR class ever. Some team is going to look incredible stupid. 

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Funny how the jets picked one of the busted corners. And possible 2 QBs busts depending on how they’re graded.

the bigger issue is there are 32 teams and, I believe, only 25? Pro bowl players selected each year (22 offense and defense, 3 special teams). This means it’s pretty hard to achieve that status and the pool of players in the top 10 picks over the average career is pretty small. A lot of all pros have to come from some other draft positions.

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There are problems with using AP and PB as measurements as well.

There aren’t enough AP slots to go around to cover all the great players. A top 5-8 QB may never be AP, but you’re plenty happy with the pick.

Meanwhile now you get 2nd and 3rd alternates making the PB. Derek Carr is a PB QB in 2017 while in 2018 Dak is (by this measurement) no better than Ryan Leaf. Rookies & second year players (particularly starting QBs) get graded on a curve in PB voting as well  Was Winston’s rookie season really worthy of PB honors? Bridgewater was also a PBer in 2015 while Brees and Cousins were deemed less worthy).

If Trubisky is a backup for the next 5 years and then plays in the PB as an alternate in 2027 that’ll be his 2nd PB and thus (using the above methodology) he’ll be deemed a successful pick for Chicago taking him not only with a top 10 pick, but ahead of Mahomes and Watson at that. A 12-year full starter with 3-4 deserved PB seasons is a better pick than an overdrafted borderline starter who gets benched for poor play multiple times yet is twice elevated to an undeserved PB alternate; but they’re judged the same here.

Also lost in it is disparate impact of drafting a bust top 10 QB. He cripples his team with multiple wasted years of mulligans and showing patience and such, and there’s a higher probability a team used another higher pick or two (in the Jets’ most recent case, three) to trade up to get him in the first place.

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Bad data in ===> bad results out.

I don’t see drawing any success rate conclusions from this that’d greatly influence who I’d pick & pass on in a given slot.

Only thing useful is the bust rate, which suggests that trading down gives you a better (extra) shot at a good starter, with the added opportunity for multiple good starters instead of one, at the expense of missing out on a sub-50% shot for a special prospect you presumably won’t find at #25.

i.e. if there’s no trade for Watson and someone else is throwing another 1st rounder or more our way to move down a few slots from 2, and another 1st to drop down to 15, then take it (under the assumption one will bust or semi-bust anyway). If people are doubting the value of Watson for 3 first round picks as it is, because the team has too many present holes, then that goes doubly for passing up opportunities of trading down to get 3 1sts instead of using one on a second LT that relegates/demotes one to RT. 

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3 firsts for Deshaun Watson is a no brainer. 

What really is disturbing is that in the last 10 years the Jets took not 1 but 2 safeties in the 1st round! Based on these stats it just shows how incredibly stupid that was. Calvin Pryor (15 I think?), Adams at #6. And then you look at how many DTs they took. What the hell were they thinking? 

Fortunately it appears they hit on QW. A blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. And by the way, can we stop 🛑 calling 1st year players busts! My god! QW is the perfect example. One scout described QW as a 305 LB bar of soap when watching tape. We don't watch the tapes like these guys do. He was right! QW might just be the best young interior Dlineman in the league after Donald. Remember the Parcells adage regarding rookies. It takes time for them to find their footing. 

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29 minutes ago, Jetster said:

3 firsts for Deshaun Watson is a no brainer. 

What really is disturbing is that in the last 10 years the Jets took not 1 but 2 safeties in the 1st round! Based on these stats it just shows how incredibly stupid that was. Calvin Pryor (15 I think?), Adams at #6. And then you look at how many DTs they took. What the hell were they thinking? 

Fortunately it appears they hit on QW. A blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. And by the way, can we stop 🛑 calling 1st year players busts! My god! QW is the perfect example. One scout described QW as a 305 LB bar of soap when watching tape. We don't watch the tapes like these guys do. He was right! QW might just be the best young interior Dlineman in the league after Donald. Remember the Parcells adage regarding rookies. It takes time for them to find their footing. 

But they have low bust rates and were steals when these players dropped to us. That makes it smart! 

You actually think you know more than the professionals? The arrogance on you, pfft.

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54 minutes ago, Jetster said:

3 firsts for Deshaun Watson is a no brainer. 

What really is disturbing is that in the last 10 years the Jets took not 1 but 2 safeties in the 1st round! Based on these stats it just shows how incredibly stupid that was. Calvin Pryor (15 I think?), Adams at #6. And then you look at how many DTs they took. What the hell were they thinking? 

 

I think one of the biggest #'s in the NFL is the % of cap space that a QB consumes in a given year.    If you look at the the last 20+ years I think the max cap % is in the 12-13% for a super bowl winning QB and usually less than 10%.   

I would trade 3 1st rd. picks for Watson if and only if he renegotiated his contract to salary at 12% of the annual cap.   That would allow the team the financial flexibility to build around him.   I'm sure his agent would say no but it's innovative and would show a commitment to winning not just $.   

Otherwise the math just doesn't work.   You are going to have a playoff QB but won't win any SB's.   At > 13% of the cap you're better off passing on Watson + building a great team and trying to win with a QB on a rookie deal, a reclamation project like Tannehill/Mariota, declining vet (Stafford), or Journeyman  

 

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12 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

And safeties, safeties are the safest.  

the real truth is these are players not positions

the Jets should evaluate each and every one of these as players not as positional needs to be filled

Mac was a moron but one thing he got correct, drafting for need at the top end of the draft is a great way to draft a bust. Those picks, Leonard, Jamal, they all held their value, even if we didn't keep them long term

 

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13 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Deshaun Watson is going to cost 3 First round picks and likely more. This is an absolute steal. Literally ANY deal you make with the Texans that doesn't include guaranty YOUNG, CHEAP, Proven talent is an ABSOLUTE steal.

You mean, like the young and cheap talent 3 players would provide for his one?

I get it; we've drafted bad for ten years.  The plan is to find a guy who drafts well, not keep doing what we have done for 15 years, which is over pay for 'proven' talent in FA and trades, and then get burned for it.

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1 hour ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If the Texans are willing to trade Watson for only 3 first-round picks, there will be plenty of teams willing to make that trade. 

But only the Jets & Miami have the high picks. Miami went 10-6 this year, where are they picking in the 1st next year?

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6 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

There are problems with using AP and PB as measurements as well.

There aren’t enough AP slots to go around to cover all the great players. A top 5-8 QB may never be AP, but you’re plenty happy with the pick.

Meanwhile now you get 2nd and 3rd alternates making the PB. Derek Carr is a PB QB in 2017 while in 2018 Dak is (by this measurement) no better than Ryan Leaf. Rookies & second year players (particularly starting QBs) get graded on a curve in PB voting as well  Was Winston’s rookie season really worthy of PB honors? Bridgewater was also a PBer in 2015 while Brees and Cousins were deemed less worthy).

If Trubisky is a backup for the next 5 years and then plays in the PB as an alternate in 2027 that’ll be his 2nd PB and thus (using the above methodology) he’ll be deemed a successful pick for Chicago taking him not only with a top 10 pick, but ahead of Mahomes and Watson at that. A 12-year full starter with 3-4 deserved PB seasons is a better pick than an overdrafted borderline starter who gets benched for poor play multiple times yet is twice elevated to an undeserved PB alternate; but they’re judged the same here.

Also lost in it is disparate impact of drafting a bust top 10 QB. He cripples his team with multiple wasted years of mulligans and showing patience and such, and there’s a higher probability a team used another higher pick or two (in the Jets’ most recent case, three) to trade up to get him in the first place.

 

This link I listed above broke it down a-little more for those interested. 

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

 

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Please note Deshaun passed for 4800 yards this year and 33 TD's.  

Chances of drafting a QB that could pass for 4800 yards as a top 10 pick is 18%. 

Chances of drafting a QB that could pass for > 30TD are a top pick is 43%

 

The Point of the story if you could pick top ten every year and continue to bust on these QB's. Arizona drafted Rosen and he busted. They then spent another number 1 pick on Kyler and the jury is certainly still out on him. As the second his running was limited he did not look the same. 

And as you mentioned totally agree on the Bust scenario which usually leads to a full rebuild. Even if you LOVE Wilson statistics say there is a 30-40% shot hes busting which then likely leads to a whole another rebuild. Firing Saleh and Douglas and starting again. IMO if theres one spot to overpay for that proven guy its QB. Its just stability. 

 

One last note - Boys whatever you do get WR out of your head. Passing on one of the many FA WR's that are all good and young and busting on a WR early could look like a terrible decision in a few years. 

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54 minutes ago, bgivs21 said:

Sooo you're saying we should draft a Safety in the top 10 from now on!? 

Its just stats - Take them all with a grain of salt. 

No one is advocating for a Safety. Safety and Tight end usually have such a low positional value that they are both not drafted high and when they are drafted high it happens to be extremely good players. Think like Sean Taylor and Earl Thomas. 

For example Dlineman/QB etc have such a high positional value that a guy like Trey Lance is likely going top 10 with only one year of success which surely boost up bust rates. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

 

This link I listed above broke it down a-little more for those interested. 

https://football.pitcherlist.com/pessimists-guide-to-the-nfl-draft/

 

2125550946_ScreenShot2021-01-20at12_03_18PM.thumb.png.bba010bc2d64106756f9e358d5977252.png

 

Please note Deshaun passed for 4800 yards this year and 33 TD's.  

Chances of drafting a QB that could pass for 4800 yards as a top 10 pick is 18%. 

Chances of drafting a QB that could pass for > 30TD are a top pick is 43%

 

The Point of the story if you could pick top ten every year and continue to bust on these QB's. Arizona drafted Rosen and he busted. They then spent another number 1 pick on Kyler and the jury is certainly still out on him. As the second his running was limited he did not look the same. 

And as you mentioned totally agree on the Bust scenario which usually leads to a full rebuild. Even if you LOVE Wilson statistics say there is a 30-40% shot hes busting which then likely leads to a whole another rebuild. Firing Saleh and Douglas and starting again. IMO if theres one spot to overpay for that proven guy its QB. Its just stability. 

 

One last note - Boys whatever you do get WR out of your head. Passing on one of the many FA WR's that are all good and young and busting on a WR early could look like a terrible decision in a few years. 

1486553814_ScreenShot2021-01-20at12_11_28PM.thumb.png.27b74fad6639c93c2f1c8ddfab5d6b65.png

 

Another takeaway is that QBs drafted in the top 10 have a higher chance of not busting than 1st round QBs outside of the top 10. Basically all the stats point towards drafting Zach Wilson/ Justin Fields or trading a bunch for Watson. Add in the fact that a QB with Darnold’s stats through 3 years rarely (like 3 ever) becomes mediocre and it’s pretty clear what we have to do.

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