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Will a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold be worth the risk?


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If you love (not mildy like) Fields or Wilson you draft them.

If Watson is available for a fair cost not a massive haul you trade for him.

If not you keep Darnold and be ready to look for a QB (draft or FA) next year.

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this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure. The offense is so gutted, so stripped to the bones, there's not many QB'

Think of it this way.  Do you think Sam can lead this team to a 10-6, 11-5 record?  Do you think he can make the playoffs?  I personally don’t.  I feel like he’d leave the team like a 6-10, 7-9 at bes

Will a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold be worth the risk? The NY Jets are not going to pick up Sam Darnold‘s fifth-year option. General manager Joe Douglas has until May to officially make that de

34 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

this is true, with the one flaw being if they truly believe that zach wilson would be a star in their new offense and they ignore it and trade the pick away, then darnold continues to suck.  then it's shame on them.

IMO I think JD taking a QB at #2 has a better shot of happening than Deshaun Watson.  I guess we'll see...

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4 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

IMO I think JD taking a QB at #2 has a better shot of happening than Deshaun Watson.  I guess we'll see...

I don’t see douglas giving up the draft capital to get Watson, but i don’t think many here want to see darnold starting for the jets again on opening day.

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7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I don’t see douglas giving up the draft capital to get Watson, but i don’t think many here want to see darnold starting for the jets again on opening day.

Agree 100%.  Yet most Darnold haters were probably tolerant with Sanchez in 2009-2010 handing off to Jones, Tomlinson and Greene. And throwing to Edwards, Cotchery and Holmes.  People are just sick of losing...

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35 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

If you love (not mildy like) Fields or Wilson you draft them.

If Watson is available for a fair cost not a massive haul you trade for him.

If not you keep Darnold and be ready to look for a QB (draft or FA) next year.

The problem is they are going to be looking to make up for the disastrous Hopkins trade.  The cost will be exorbitant 

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Let's look at it from the perspective of another team (or the Jets) having seen Darnold's 5 years of tape.  

You can use a first round draft pick on a QB, invest $30mm-$40mm over four years in that, and potentially have to use draft capital to trade up.  That's an option.

For $30mm and a draft pick, you can give Darnold another shot for two years, with the franchise tag option after that.   That effectively is his 2021 and 2022 fifth year option.  

Ignoring the sunk cost, the Jets can basically do the same thing, forgoing whatever draft pick they would get.

When you compare the FA contracts guys like McCown and Fitz signed, the $30mm option is not terrible. 

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13 minutes ago, DetroitRed said:

The problem is they are going to be looking to make up for the disastrous Hopkins trade.  The cost will be exorbitant 

We have two other great options so it’s not a problem at all- Houston can go eat rocks. 

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2 hours ago, jetsons said:

Will a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold be worth the risk?

 Yes

Yes, I agree with you.  By the way, I don't look at it as a one-year gamble on Sam Darnold.

I'm gambling on a new head coach with a new coaching staff, and adding a quality wide receiver through possibly free agency, and adding at least (2) quality offensive lineman who will protect Darnold better, as well as adding a quality running back to the mix.

I'm gambling that the Jets organization will not let Darnold down as it has up til now, and that we can truly judge Darnold in this "prove it" year.

Getting rid of Sam now, giving away our #2 pick on a new rookie college QB without upgrading a blue-chip player at #2, or acquiring more high draft picks with the #2 pick is the real gamble to me.

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4 hours ago, predator_05 said:

You have to see how he looks with a new coaching staff. 

Otherwise, we could live to regret letting him go. In the event that he moves to another team and lights it up. Not that unlikely, if you think about it. 

I think the difficult part is can you really know that before you have to pay him a fortune?  He has gotten worse with each year in the league. 

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4 hours ago, bitonti said:

this is a good article but I question how the Jets not solving the QB problem in year 1 of Saleh is some kind of giant failure. The offense is so gutted, so stripped to the bones, there's not many QB's who could succeed in year 1 of this reset or whatever we want to call it. It's not like the Super Bowl window is ready just waiting for a QB to open it. They need to build from the ground up, then take a QB when that person won't drown. To do otherwise is Sam Darnold part II 

the dude is 23 and basically done... that could be Justin Fields in 3 years

 

It's really strange how you keep framing this so binary. Binary Bitonti, that's what they're gonna start calling you. And lemme tell you something internet nicknames are for life pal.

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

Becton, crowder and McGovern are the three starters on offense. Mims played half a season. 3.5 starters on offense maybe 4. That's less than half a team. 

I'm an optimist - surprised the Mods let me in here. :thumbup:

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25 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

It's really strange how you keep framing this so binary. Binary Bitonti, that's what they're gonna start calling you. And lemme tell you something internet nicknames are for life pal.

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes MT

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 it's like a joke by now but Joe Douglas probably wants to see James Morgan compete at some point. The dude did waste a 4th Rd on him. 

 never understood why nfl teams particularly the Jets preach competition at every spot and then coronate qb1. Let Sam, James Morgan and a vet compete and let the best player play for once. 

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13 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

I'm an optimist - surprised the Mods let me in here. :thumbup:

If we play the optimism game, te Herndon showed glimpses of chemistry with Sam down the stretch. Ty Johnson is an interesting rb. Cam Clark is an untapped resource as is James Morgan. They actually have a qb in the pipeline for once. 

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 it's like a joke by now but Joe Douglas probably wants to see James Morgan compete at some point. The dude did waste a 4th Rd on him. 

 never understood why nfl teams particularly the Jets preach competition at every spot and then coronate qb1. Let Sam, James Morgan and a vet compete and let the best player play for once. 

You finally nailed it. Good persistence. And the winner isn't gonna be Sam or the vet.😎 Like Tyrion Lannister...." I drink and I know things."

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5 hours ago, predator_05 said:

You have to see how he looks with a new coaching staff. 

That is the only position for anyone who hated Adam Gase to take. 

If you thought that the problem was the head coach, to the point where you knew after 4 games and cheered the flying planes, especially on the grounds that he was not an "offensive guru" nor a "quarterback whisperer", then you cannot hold Sam Darnold accountable for his lousy stats and awful play.

If you were anti-Gase, you have to be pro-Darnold right now.  You have to stick to your convictions and believe that a competent new head coach, an innovative new offensive coordinator, and a qualified quarterbacks coach can restore Sam Darnold to the high standard all the experts had for him in late 2017 and during and after the 2018 season.

SAR I

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I just think he is not wired to be an elite QB.  When you really think about it,  he has to have  eveything setup just perfectly inorder for him to succeed.  He does not really manufacture any great plays because his ability to see the entire field and react accordingly is not very good.  That is something that can't be taught.

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5 hours ago, predator_05 said:

7-9 is a massive improvement on 2-14. 

If Darnold shows improvement, and the team is a few close losses away from 9-7...the team will have a strong season to build on. 

going from 2 wins to 7 is easy.

going from 7 to 10 is hard.

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I just don't see how you can justify rolling with Sam if you aren't willing to pick up his 5th year option. 

If he hasn't earned that by now, doesn't that tell you that you should move on?

How many times do you see a QB put it all together in his 4th season? Were the Bears smart to hang on to Trubisky for year 4? Were the Jets smart to extend Sanchez after year 3? Etc. 

Also - how come when a WR sucks for 3 years, people don't say "we need to get him a better supporting cast, starting with a better QB. He hasn't gotten a fair shake here" Why isn't this a two-way street?

The instinct to coddle these QBs fascinates me - especially for a fanbase that went through this a decade ago with Sanchez.  

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37 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 it's like a joke by now but Joe Douglas probably wants to see James Morgan compete at some point. The dude did waste a 4th Rd on him. 

 never understood why nfl teams particularly the Jets preach competition at every spot and then coronate qb1. Let Sam, James Morgan and a vet compete and let the best player play for once. 

I'm not interested in a winner between Sam, Morgan and a vet.  But for you draft guys... we'll have lots of draft picks, so there's that.

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14 minutes ago, SAR I said:

That is the only position for anyone who hated Adam Gase to take. 

If you thought that the problem was the head coach, to the point where you knew after 4 games and cheered the flying planes, especially on the grounds that he was not an "offensive guru" nor a "quarterback whisperer", then you cannot hold Sam Darnold accountable for his lousy stats and awful play.

If you were anti-Gase, you have to be pro-Darnold right now.  You have to stick to your convictions and believe that a competent new head coach, an innovative new offensive coordinator, and a qualified quarterbacks coach can restore Sam Darnold to the high standard all the experts had for him in late 2017 and during and after the 2018 season.

SAR I

I think Gase sucks less than people on this board think and Sam sucks more.  Gase endorsement of Sam to get the job may have been justice.  

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14 minutes ago, SAR I said:

That is the only position for anyone who hated Adam Gase to take. 

If you thought that the problem was the head coach, to the point where you knew after 4 games and cheered the flying planes, especially on the grounds that he was not an "offensive guru" nor a "quarterback whisperer", then you cannot hold Sam Darnold accountable for his lousy stats and awful play.

If you were anti-Gase, you have to be pro-Darnold right now.  You have to stick to your convictions and believe that a competent new head coach, an innovative new offensive coordinator, and a qualified quarterbacks coach can restore Sam Darnold to the high standard all the experts had for him in late 2017 and during and after the 2018 season.

SAR I

False dichotomy.

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6 minutes ago, dcJet said:

going from 2 wins to 7 is easy.

going from 7 to 10 is hard.

bad(3-4 wins) to good(9-10) wins is the easy part. You see stories like this all the time. The hard part is going from good to great(13+wins). This is also because it requires a luck and health element. There's not a lot of separation between a 11 and 13 win team.

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5 minutes ago, dcJet said:

going from 2 wins to 7 is easy.

going from 7 to 10 is hard.

Great point. Because then you have to start beating some of the big boys, either upsetting them or stop blowing games you should have won. That's a huge step to take.

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18 minutes ago, SAR I said:

That is the only position for anyone who hated Adam Gase to take. 

If you thought that the problem was the head coach, to the point where you knew after 4 games and cheered the flying planes, especially on the grounds that he was not an "offensive guru" nor a "quarterback whisperer", then you cannot hold Sam Darnold accountable for his lousy stats and awful play.

If you were anti-Gase, you have to be pro-Darnold right now.  You have to stick to your convictions and believe that a competent new head coach, an innovative new offensive coordinator, and a qualified quarterbacks coach can restore Sam Darnold to the high standard all the experts had for him in late 2017 and during and after the 2018 season.

SAR I

they can both suck, doesn't have to be one or the other

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3 minutes ago, dcJet said:

False dichotomy.

If Gase truly was as bad as you thought, and all evidence now points to this as true, then Sam may very well be a great quarterback who never had the opportunity to show it because of the most incompetent system and playcalling in the league.  

So you owe it to Sam to see what he looks like under LaFleur.  No rush in casting him aside.  Invest the one year in Sam while rebuilding elsewhere.  Make the final decision a year from now. 

SAR I

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4 minutes ago, jbt said:

they can both suck, doesn't have to be one or the other

I agree, but doesn’t your gut tell you that if Sam never had a chance to succeed and wasn’t nurtured properly that there still may be a great quarterback there somewhere? 

Give Sam credit.  He is unflappable.  He is California cool as a cucumber.  I don’t think he is destroyed or burnt out or in need of a change in scenery.  What’s the harm in seeing what he looks like?  If Watson stays in Houston, perhaps Sam is a better option than Fields or Wilson.   

SAR I

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4 minutes ago, SAR I said:

I agree, but doesn’t your gut tell you that if Sam never had a chance to succeed and wasn’t nurtured properly that there still may be a great quarterback there somewhere? 

Give Sam credit.  He is unflappable.  He is California cool as a cucumber.  I don’t think he is destroyed or burnt out or in need of a change in scenery.  What’s the harm in seeing what he looks like?  If Watson stays in Houston, perhaps Sam is a better option than Fields or Wilson.   

SAR I

i don't, i think you can get enough of a sense of how good a qb can be by watching how he plays even on a bad team.  you get a sense of a 'best case' scenario if they really add the right pieces.  guys like darnold, daniel jones, trubisky, they're just not that good.  they're gonna have more turnovers than good qbs even if you add good players around them.  i think a lot of these guys can win and look good for stretches but really, what are the odds that darnold ever becomes a top 15 qb?  is darnold ever going to be as consistent as a guy like mayfield?  darnold has skills, but that doesn't mean they translate well to the nfl.  his mechanics have always been poor and he still makes these headscratching passes into double or triple coverage when there's safer options.  there's only so much you can coach out of a player.  

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Just now, FidelioJet said:

Sam Darnold will be traded and the Jets will take a QB at 2.

This is the correct answer. Anything other than this for the next 3 months is a smoke screen. Saleh and Joe D would not be dumb enough to tie their careers to Darnold. It can go only 2 ways IMO after the 3 years we have of tape:

1) He stinks up the 2021 season and we burn a year of the rebuild. And by all accounts I have heard to date, the 2022 QB class is not good.

2) He has a good to OK season (Top 12-18 QB) where we get stuck and have to lock him up at $30 mil/year on a multi-year deal. 

Of the 30 games on tape, I have yet to see a single half or quarter where I have said "would love to see this guy in a 2 minute drill vs Pat Mahomes in an AFC championship." He doesn't have what it takes to be a Top 5 QB and JD and our new coaching staff are not going to roll the dice (with a 5% chance) that he blooms into one in his 4th year. I can guarantee you that 9 of the next 10 SB winning QBs will be pro bowlers. Defenses are not winning championships anymore in the NFL. Last team to do it was Seattle and they have since transformed their offense to adapt.

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5 hours ago, predator_05 said:

7-9 is a massive improvement on 2-14. 

If Darnold shows improvement, and the team is a few close losses away from 9-7...the team will have a strong season to build on. 

Say they go 8-8, very possible with an improved team.  Darnold looks improved but  meh.  (most likely)

Do you give him a $100,000,000 contract (the Sanchez route, but more expensive), go looking for a young QB drafting at 16, or bring in a washed out vet.

I just don't see the point of brinning Darnold back this year.  He's not going to look like a 27 YO Brady.

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5 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Why do people always act like drafting a new QB and "starting all over again" means you can't win sooner than later? If you draft the right QB it doesn't take him 3-4 years to develop into a good player. You usually start seeing the results immediately. Especially when you compare him to a QB who has struggled over his first 3 years to show any type of consistency. 

Starting all over again is the only realistic option to make when the QB you have has not shown you he is the answer. 

Even if Sam stays its in essence starting all over. New coaches , new playbook , new players via FA or draft . Those saying not to start over assume Sam will hit the ground running which is a huge leap of faith.  

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57 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I just don't see how you can justify rolling with Sam if you aren't willing to pick up his 5th year option. 

If he hasn't earned that by now, doesn't that tell you that you should move on?

How many times do you see a QB put it all together in his 4th season? Were the Bears smart to hang on to Trubisky for year 4? Were the Jets smart to extend Sanchez after year 3? Etc. 

Also - how come when a WR sucks for 3 years, people don't say "we need to get him a better supporting cast, starting with a better QB. He hasn't gotten a fair shake here" Why isn't this a two-way street?

The instinct to coddle these QBs fascinates me - especially for a fanbase that went through this a decade ago with Sanchez.  

 

And Trubisky >> Darnold.

We'd have fans calling for a shrine to be built for Darnold if he put up Trubisky's numbers.  64/37 TD:INT ratio!  10 career games with 3+ TDs, including a 6-TD game in '18!

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