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Lets just talk free agents & our cap dollars


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9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

So twice in a 22-year period is evidence of this?  And those teams had an established core before adding those FA's.  Both the 1997 Jets and the 2008 Jets went 9-7, after all.

FA's compliment whatever homegrown talent you already have on your roster.  They aren't really a solution for a bad roster.  Adding expensive WR's would be useless in 2021 if our QB is still Sam Darnold.

those were just the convenient (to my addled brain) examples. I'm sure there are plenty more, where this or that QB came in free agency or a DL or edge rusher making a big difference. Or a safety leading a defense to the playoffs after a trade. It happens frequently.

I stated that FA alone doesn't fix a 'bad' roster. it can be used to shore up specific weaknesses. And, really, most rosters around the same, talent-wise. You have your outliers, like, say, the Jets. But even this roster is really not all that far, with the draft and FA capital the Jets have, from being average to better, depending on the moves made.

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I think it won't be as crazy of a free agency as some predict. I do think they'll pick up 2 marquee free agents and at least 5-6 new starters/major contributors overall (many on cheap 1-year contracts

Very rarely does FA fix issues.  There are usually a total of 3 or 4 really desirable players from all position groups and a huge demand by all teams to get them.  Also the Fa list shrinks as teams fi

Is the point here that picks are overvalued because the Patriots suck at drafting? The best way to remain competitive year over year is to draft well and develop talent. That requires a good fron

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On 1/20/2021 at 12:25 PM, Beerfish said:

Very rarely does FA fix issues.  There are usually a total of 3 or 4 really desirable players from all position groups and a huge demand by all teams to get them.  Also the Fa list shrinks as teams find ways to keep their own guys  (I do not think Allen Robinson is going to make it to FA, the Bears will cut or restructure or do what they have to to keep him.)

When speculating on who the Jets might get I see lists with the Jets getting 3 or 4 or 5 of the high end players, that is not happening.  You might get one of them and then some medium or risky or value guys.

People need to back off a bit and be more conservative in their projections as to who the jets will sign.

I will NOT back off in January! NO WAY!!! lol 

Here's the thing with this offseason. With most of the teams being in such cap hell we are going to see less suitors for the big FA pries like Thuney and Robinson. So not only can we get them, but we can probably get them for less than usual.  I actually see a bunch of 1 and 2 yr contracts as players try to keep some maneuverability for when the cap goes back up. So we can see us grab these fellas but only for a short time. 

but either way, its a bit more robust potentially speaking and I think JD is positioned as well as anyone else in the league. Especially with the new buzz created by our HC hire.  

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12 hours ago, nycdan said:

With $70M in cap, the Jets are going to have to sign some big names.  I'd venture to guess at least two guys in the $10-15M+ range.  Quite simply, we need to spend money to build a competitive team and JD is not here to save the Johnson's money.  He's here to win football games. 

That doesn't mean he goes hog wild and pays out Trumaine Johnson deals left and right, but a pair of names like Robinson and Thuney, or Golladay and Scherff are completely within reason and we're probably going to have to bring in at least one of them, if not two.  In any case, he's going to need to spend at least $40-50M in salary cap on Free Agents although some of that may include re-signing Maye.  

And while we're talking salary cap, cutting Henry Anderson adds another $8.2M which I think is a highly probably move.  So now we're up closer to $80M in cap to spend.  Bit, I think you are going to be proven oh so wrong in March and April but we'll see.

Well not only that, but it's not like they have a load of draft picks coming up who'll be in need of big second contracts. A couple in the moderate range & that's it really: Maye is up this year, Crowder next year, and who else could possibly reach $10MM in 2021 & 2022 combined? If he builds on his 2020 season I suppose Fatusaki in 2022, and I guess Herndon's possible in '22 also if he makes a big leap forward, but I'm reaching and that's really it.

The big hitter was supposed to be Darnold but it seems unlikely he'll even get his 5th yr option picked up, since it seems teams can't get out of them anymore (starting with Darnold's draft class). Used to be the risk was an injury-only guarantee, like if he was still injured when the next league year started, but could otherwise get out of it (e.g. Jets w/Coples). But starting with the class of 2018 1st rounders it's fully guaranteed as soon as teams exercise the option, and can't see them guaranteeing Darnold $25MM for 2022 no matter how much Douglas believes in him.

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29 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well not only that, but it's not like they have a load of draft picks coming up who'll be in need of big second contracts. A couple in the moderate range & that's it really: Maye is up this year, Crowder next year, and who else could possibly reach $10MM in 2021 & 2022 combined? If he builds on his 2020 season I suppose Fatusaki in 2022, and I guess Herndon's possible in '22 also if he makes a big leap forward, but I'm reaching and that's really it.

The big hitter was supposed to be Darnold but it seems unlikely he'll even get his 5th yr option picked up, since it seems teams can't get out of them anymore (starting with Darnold's draft class). Used to be the risk was an injury-only guarantee, like if he was still injured when the next league year started, but could otherwise get out of it (e.g. Jets w/Coples). But starting with the class of 2018 1st rounders it's fully guaranteed as soon as teams exercise the option, and can't see them guaranteeing Darnold $25MM for 2022 no matter how much Douglas believes in him.

When does QW start pulling a Revis? Spring 2022?

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On 1/20/2021 at 12:50 PM, derp said:

I’m not so sure why people think JuJu is so great. He’s a pretty good big slot receiver who everyone wants to move outside because he’s 6’1 even though he hasn’t shown he can do that.

Shouldn’t it be concerning that guys on Pittsburgh keep leapfrogging him and the Steelers are fine letting him go? He might to end up needing to sign a one year prove it deal, I don’t think I’d give him any more after his last two seasons.

Allen Robinson should be the #1 target in FA.

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2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

When does QW start pulling a Revis? Spring 2022?

Unless he's pulling down 10+ sacks a year they should've even consider giving another D lineman a huge 2nd contract. The only defensive players that are worth big 2nd contracts in today's NFL are guys that sack the QB at a high level or guys that shut down an entire side of the field in the secondary. That's it. 

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5 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Allen Robinson should be the #1 target in FA.

People keep saying this but, I’m not sure that Robinson is the best fit for this offense.  If you’re going to spend that money it should be on a receiver that operates in space better and has better YAC capability.  I’d give Curtis Samuel a call before I would Robinson.  The Jets have Mims to occupy the X role, but really nothin else for the Z, which is a critical role in the Shanny offense.   You guys need to keep in mind scheme fit when evaluating these FAs, especially when discussing the higher priced ones. 

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20 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Unless he's pulling down 10+ sacks a year they should've even consider giving another D lineman a huge 2nd contract. The only defensive players that are worth big 2nd contracts in today's NFL are guys that sack the QB at a high level or guys that shut down an entire side of the field in the secondary. That's it. 

Utterly preposterous take.  QW is coming off a dominant second season where he not only excelled at stopping the run but increased his sack total to 7.5.  He also will only be 23 on opening day.

If he continues to play like he has and is "only" at 8/9 sacks, he still deserves to be paid.

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16 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

People keep saying this but, I’m not sure that Robinson is the best fit for this offense.  If you’re going to spend that money it should be on a receiver that operates in space better and has better YAC capability.  I’d give Curtis Samuel a call before I would Robinson.  The Jets have Mims to occupy the X role, but really nothin else for the Z, which is a critical role in the Shanny offense.   You guys need to keep in mind scheme fit when evaluating these FAs, especially when discussing the higher priced ones. 

i don't see douglas spending a ton of money on a 28 yr old wr even to help out a rookie.  if they actually trade darnold and draft wilson, i can see the seattle 1st rounder going to a pass rusher and then using day 2 to beef up the wr/rb positions, since you'd think they'd get at least 1 day 2 pick for darnold, giving them at least 4 before any tradedowns.  

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On 1/20/2021 at 3:26 PM, sec101row23 said:

I wouldn’t mind a trio of Davis, Hunter Henry and Matt Breida.   Hunter might be costly though. 

We should add curtis samuel to the list as well, especially considering the offense we will be running.  He is excellent on jet sweeps and screens while also being able to be a deep threat.  Seems like he would be an ideal fit here next to Mims.

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11 minutes ago, BCJet said:

We should add curtis samuel to the list as well, especially considering the offense we will be running.  He is excellent on jet sweeps and screens while also being able to be a deep threat.  Seems like he would be an ideal fit here next to Mims.

I mentioned Samuel just a few posts ago in this thread.  Breida, if healthy seems like an easy one.  Won’t cost a lot and has had success in the system.  

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5 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I mentioned Samuel just a few posts ago in this thread.  Breida, if healthy seems like an easy one.  Won’t cost a lot and has had success in the system.  

all the mocks that have the jets going rb in rounds 1 and 2 are misguided, they're not taking rbs that early.  wrs, however, were drafted early.  aiyuk, round 1 2020.  samuel, round 2 2019.  hurd, round 3 2019.  pettis, round 2 2018.  so i expect more of an emphasis there and rb by committee.

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On 1/20/2021 at 2:51 PM, rayzor said:

Agree.  Should probably add Fuller, Higgins and Lazard as realistic options.  I think the 28 year olds are too close to their peaks to pay them what they want.

If we are looking for other options, why is there never any love for Marvin Jones?  I know he is 30, but seems like a nice option to tide us over.  It's not like he is washed up.  He finished the season super strong. 

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1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

If we are looking for other options, why is there never any love for Marvin Jones?  I know he is 30, but seems like a nice option to tide us over.  It's not like he is washed up.  He finished the season super strong. 

Jones could be a very affordable option, short contract, good complementary player.

Id really like to see us pay for a WR like Samuel who is versatile and explosive and use our picks on OL/DL as OL in particular is deep this year.

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12 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

What I love about this thread are the people saying that you can't build through free agency and then expecting to sign 6 starters this offseason.

I would bet that at least 6 of the players that the Jets sign this offseason will start this season.  That’s only 3 on either side of the ball. 

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4 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I would bet that at least 6 of the players that the Jets sign this offseason will start this season.  That’s only 3 on either side of the ball. 

not sure since the jets have a lot of draft picks, and i'm guessing a bunch of those guys will be able to compete for starting jobs.  plus, you have mosley who if he bothers to play would slide into a starting job as well.

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

not sure since the jets have a lot of draft picks, and i'm guessing a bunch of those guys will be able to compete for starting jobs.  plus, you have mosley who if he bothers to play would slide into a starting job as well.

If they bring Maye and Poole back, that’s 2 right there.  I would assume another corner will be brought in that’s “starting caliber”.   On offense, a guard, RB and WR is pretty realistic.  Plus you have edge as another position they may bring in.  It doesn’t mean they are signing all pro bowl players at these positions, but I would think that signing 6 starters in FA isn’t a stretch. 

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14 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

I would bet that at least 6 of the players that the Jets sign this offseason will start this season.  That’s only 3 on either side of the ball. 

Yes.  I don't think it is farfetched.  That is particularly common when you have a regime shift.  The new coach is going to bring his guys in and pick up guys that fit his system.  If we get very lucky with our draft maybe it will The only real fill most of those slots.  My point is people acting like free agency is not an important part of building your tam when they think we are getting 6 starters.  That is more than 1/4 of your starters.

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4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Yes.  I don't think it is farfetched.  That is particularly common when you have a regime shift.  The new coach is going to bring his guys in and pick up guys that fit his system.  If we get very lucky with our draft maybe it will The only real fill most of those slots.  My point is people acting like free agency is not an important part of building your tam when they think we are getting 6 starters.  That is more than 1/4 of your starters.

Agreed.  That’s because a lot of people put together these “wish lists” that aren’t realistic.   My point is that given what’s on the roster now, and given the dramatic scheme changes on both sides of the ball, signing at least 6 starters is totally feasible.  

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39 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

If we are looking for other options, why is there never any love for Marvin Jones?  I know he is 30, but seems like a nice option to tide us over.  It's not like he is washed up.  He finished the season super strong. 

I'm sure Jones has something left in the tank.  It kinda depends who our QB will be.  If it's a rookie, it might be more beneficial to have a young core group of WR's he can develop rapport with as opposed to a stopgap one year player.  That's why i think the younger the better.

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17 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

If they bring Maye and Poole back, that’s 2 right there.  I would assume another corner will be brought in that’s “starting caliber”.   On offense, a guard, RB and WR is pretty realistic.  Plus you have edge as another position they may bring in.  It doesn’t mean they are signing all pro bowl players at these positions, but I would think that signing 6 starters in FA isn’t a stretch. 

i wasn't considering the jets own FAs, so yeah, i guess that makes sense.  i do think there will be an emphasis on drafting speed at wr and that is exciting.  plus i do think zach wilson is our pick at 2.

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50 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Jones could be a very affordable option, short contract, good complementary player.

Id really like to see us pay for a WR like Samuel who is versatile and explosive and use our picks on OL/DL as OL in particular is deep this year.

I have advocated for Samuel for years.  Erasmus Hall Dutchmen FTMFW!  OTOH, I don't know how much he will cost and he seems more weapon than receiver.  It took him some time to start paying off in the Rhule/Brady offense, but he had over 100 yards the last two weeks.  He is still young and had some health issues that should be behind him now.  I'm certainly interested at the right price.  

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2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

i don't see douglas spending a ton of money on a 28 yr old wr even to help out a rookie.  if they actually trade darnold and draft wilson, i can see the seattle 1st rounder going to a pass rusher and then using day 2 to beef up the wr/rb positions, since you'd think they'd get at least 1 day 2 pick for darnold, giving them at least 4 before any tradedowns.  

If they go into the season with Crowder,  Mims and 2nd/3rd round rookie as the top 3 WRs with Perine and a rookie RB that would be disastrous. Idk why you guys don't want to support the QB. It makes zero sense. It's almost like you haven't seen what adding Diggs did for the Bills offense and Josh Allen. 

And dismissing Robinson as a "28 year old WR" is ridiculous. He's one of the best pure Wrs in the nfl. 

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3 minutes ago, choon328 said:

If they go into the season with Crowder,  Mims and 2nd/3rd round rookie as the top 3 WRs with Perine and a rookie RB that would be disastrous. Idk why you guys don't want to support the QB. It makes zero sense. It's almost like you haven't seen what adding Diggs did for the Bills offense and Josh Allen. 

And dismissing Robinson as a "28 year old WR" is ridiculous. He's one of the best pure Wrs in the nfl. 

Disastrous?  These guys are coming from SF.  Who were their top RB/WR over the last few years?  Breida, Wilson, Mostert.  Tevin Coleman.   Ayiuk, Samuel, Sanders, Kendrick Bourne.  Not a Stefon Diggs among them.  Sure they had Kittle, but that's really just another 5th rounder they hit on.  Who were the big money guys they brought in?  Jerick McKinnon?  Emmanuel Sanders?  You are probably looking at something similar whether you think it is "disastrous" or not.  Names and past experience don't win games and get yards.  Remember Bell and Gore?  Ability and scheme fit are what you want.  

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4 hours ago, choon328 said:

Unless he's pulling down 10+ sacks a year they should've even consider giving another D lineman a huge 2nd contract. The only defensive players that are worth big 2nd contracts in today's NFL are guys that sack the QB at a high level or guys that shut down an entire side of the field in the secondary. That's it. 

QW keeps this up he’s getting paid. He had 7 sacks in 13 games last season 

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4 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

People keep saying this but, I’m not sure that Robinson is the best fit for this offense.  If you’re going to spend that money it should be on a receiver that operates in space better and has better YAC capability.  I’d give Curtis Samuel a call before I would Robinson.  The Jets have Mims to occupy the X role, but really nothin else for the Z, which is a critical role in the Shanny offense.   You guys need to keep in mind scheme fit when evaluating these FAs, especially when discussing the higher priced ones. 

Scheme Shmeme -- I want to go by the prior year's fantasy football stats 🙃

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4 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

People keep saying this but, I’m not sure that Robinson is the best fit for this offense.  If you’re going to spend that money it should be on a receiver that operates in space better and has better YAC capability.  I’d give Curtis Samuel a call before I would Robinson.  The Jets have Mims to occupy the X role, but really nothin else for the Z, which is a critical role in the Shanny offense.   You guys need to keep in mind scheme fit when evaluating these FAs, especially when discussing the higher priced ones. 

One thing that is interesting is whehter these guys feel that they can get 2 slot guys on the field at the same time.  I read somewhere (probably here) that Shanahan feels he can use multiple slot receivers on the field simultaneously, while Gase could not.  If that is the case, maybe JuJu is not as bad a fit for them as I have been saying for the last year.  Or maybe they get some value out of Crowder and Berrios together instead of either or.   

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Marvin Jones? 
Screw that! We have Mims, Crowder & a ton o money! 
We’re definitely signing a vet WR in free agency, don’t know who but it’s happening. 
Plus this draft is filled again with stud WRs! 
Look at every mock & at #23 & #34 there are very good WRs available. 
But at those picks I’m looking at Guards, Edge or CB for real value. We could get a 4th WR with our 2nd 3rd rounder in this draft. 

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On 1/20/2021 at 10:00 AM, Jetster said:

Lets take Watson out of the equation for now. 

I keep reading threads in which it seems that the only thing that matters is more & more draft picks. It's unusual already to have #2, #23 & #34 + two 3rds #66 & #87. When is the last time we had that many high picks? Parcells? 4 firsts? 

The Jets have the 2nd highest cap dollars available in the entire league & only Marcus Maye would be a guy to resign to a long term contract. 

A team that has always been sucked off by the media every year for their masterful trade backs has been the Patriots. Well, if they were so good at drafting why did they have to sign Gilmore, or the myriad of players they have traded for or signed in free agency? Moss, Welker, Amendola, Chung, Gordon, Shelton, Collins, Van Noy, Burkhead, Jason McCourty, Moncrief, Newton,? 

The 1st year Brady leaves the building they don't even go .500 & miss the playoffs. Point being, this infactuation with having so many draft picks is crazy! there should be a stud at everyone of those draft spots & all JD has to do is make the right choices unlike Macc who constantly missed, over & over again. 

Even if Mims turns out to be very good, it was understandable that he was maneuvering for picks last year BUT look at the WR he bypassed to get the Davis pick? Chase Claypool.

Now, I have no idea how good Denzel Mims will be BUT I already know that Chase Claypool is good enough that the Steelers are waving bye bye to a free agent WR in Juju Smith who is currently better than any WR on this team currently. So be careful what you wish for with these trade backs. You can only integrate so many rookies into your team & my point is that JD is not sitting on 80 million in free agency dollars this year with what is the best free agent market in a long time & not as many buyers. 

 

Shameless plug for my Texas Tech folk..

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46 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

One thing that is interesting is whehter these guys feel that they can get 2 slot guys on the field at the same time.  I read somewhere (probably here) that Shanahan feels he can use multiple slot receivers on the field simultaneously, while Gase could not.  If that is the case, maybe JuJu is not as bad a fit for them as I have been saying for the last year.  Or maybe they get some value out of Crowder and Berrios together instead of either or.   

I think people need to stop thinking about “slot” receivers in the traditional sense that they are.  Most people think of a Crowder or Berrios as a slot receiver, which they are.   But there are guys like Justin Jefferson, JuJu, Cooper Kupp even Mike Thomas who predominantly line up in the slot.   It’s a good way of getting your receiver off the line clean, it’s harder to come up and press those guys in the slot since there isn’t a sideline to use as another defender.   There definitely are opportunities when you go 4 wide or when you flex the TE out to create two “slot” receivers.  I think you can use different types of receivers there, not just a 5’9” “slot” type.   

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On 1/20/2021 at 1:54 PM, football guy said:

I think it won't be as crazy of a free agency as some predict. I do think they'll pick up 2 marquee free agents and at least 5-6 new starters/major contributors overall (many on cheap 1-year contracts, for example, Kwon Alexander and Marlon Mack) with quite a few trades, but the plan will be to remain financially flexible going forward. Every few years they'll make big splashes, otherwise, I think they'll look to avoid major free agency spending after this year while prioritizing the draft and the trade market.  

One of Douglas's goal is to maintain financial flexibility deep into the future. By ensuring he can rollover ~$20 million each year, he'll always be able to re-sign the cornerstone players and eliminate as many tough roster decisions as possible. He'll also be able to add aging veterans with 1 year deals at high salaries who are looking to compete every year.

Under the new CBA, the Jets will have to spend 90% of the salary cap in cash over the three-year period of 2021-2023. This is what makes the Jets position so good, and this is why Douglas should be applauded for resisting big purchases last year. With the salary cap likely being reduced significantly (projected $175-180 million), the Jets are at a significant advantage because their cap position is not going to represent their cash position... simply, the Jets active cash spending is around $100 million for 2021 and if they want to meet the 90% threshold this year (not required), they'll have to add $62 million in cash for this year. So lets say the Jets meet that 90% threshold and don't spend a dollar more, they can still accomplish that and have $10-30 million in cap space in reserve. Then next year, they can roll it over and continue meeting the 90% threshold while maintaining an accumulating cushion. Every year they can meet or surpass 90% while adding $10 million here and $20 million there from each previous year. So lets say in 2023 the cap stabilizes and rises back up to the $241 million projection, the Jets would need to spend $216.9 million in cash. If they continue compiling their books the way they have been, they can easily meet that number while having upwards of $50 million in cap space after meeting the 90%. Basically, I forecast the Jets will use 2023 to dish out major extensions for guys like Quinnen, Mekhi, Mims, etc. and their salaries will eat up the major cash payments, but the Jets will still have $50 million in cap space after the extensions are completed. 

It's all a bit confusing, but long story short, I think Douglas will continue to be prudent in free agency which will allow him to extend all his own and give him enough room to make a deal when the right opportunity presents itself, while predominantly building through the draft. 

Sounds pretty crazy to me! Any idea what position those marquee free agents would be? I'm hoping OL and WR? 

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1 minute ago, sec101row23 said:

I think people need to stop thinking about “slot” receivers in the traditional sense that they are.  Most people think of a Crowder or Berrios as a slot receiver, which they are.   But there are guys like Justin Jefferson, JuJu, Cooper Kupp even Mike Thomas who predominantly line up in the slot.   It’s a good way of getting your receiver off the line clean, it’s harder to come up and press those guys in the slot since there isn’t a sideline to use as another defender.   There definitely are opportunities when you go 4 wide or when you flex the TE out to create two “slot” receivers.  I think you can use different types of receivers there, not just a 5’9” “slot” type.   

I think some offenses are limited in their use.  Gase certainly seemed to be Crowder or Berrios but not both (unless Crowder was throwing to Berrios).  There are some guys that need to play from the slot to get off the line which is why some oldtimey guys like me become prejudiced thinking that it is for tiny guys.  

If LaFleur is going to be more flexible, maybe there is room to spend on another slot if it is the best value.  One of the reasons I was against getting Smith-Schuster is that I think it is much more effective to use an outside receiver in the slot than a slot receiver outside.  Crowder and Berrrios are not doing much damage outside

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On 1/22/2021 at 2:18 PM, sec101row23 said:

I think people need to stop thinking about “slot” receivers in the traditional sense that they are.  Most people think of a Crowder or Berrios as a slot receiver, which they are.   But there are guys like Justin Jefferson, JuJu, Cooper Kupp even Mike Thomas who predominantly line up in the slot.   It’s a good way of getting your receiver off the line clean, it’s harder to come up and press those guys in the slot since there isn’t a sideline to use as another defender.   There definitely are opportunities when you go 4 wide or when you flex the TE out to create two “slot” receivers.  I think you can use different types of receivers there, not just a 5’9” “slot” type.   

Agreed.... slot receivers can be found everywher inexpensively. We have a good one in Crowder... that's why the immature Ju Ju Shuster is not on my FA radar. An Allen, AJ Brown & Godwin type of receiver is where we need to focus. I was keen on Godwin as a cheaper possibility than Robinson, but all those drops these last few weeks are a BIG Red Light for me

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