Texan Perspective: An NFL Writer Ranks Different Trade Value Scenarios Possible Facing Texans

[Gangrene]

The article below is written by Mark Lane who has been covering the NFL since 2012.
Lane lays out the top trade scenarios from the Texas perspective assessing a grade for each scenario with  a past example of a comparable NFL trade.

An interesting read from a Texan perspective with a range of asks for what the draft capital required might be.

 

https://texanswire.usatoday.com/lists/ranking-trade-value-texans-deshaun-watson/

 

Ranking the trade value of Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has a no-trade clause in his contract.

However, the uneasiness of the three-time Pro Bowler after the hiring of general manager Nick Caserio has the idea of trading Watson becoming and more thinkable.

If the Texans were to move on from Watson, they would be on the hook for $16.2 million in 2021 and then $10.8 million in 2022 before absorbing a more manageable dead money figure of $5.4 million in 2023. Caserio would have to choose wisely.

If the Texans were to trade Watson, here are a variety of trade packages Houston could look at.

2021 1st & 7th rounders

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

This would be a trade Bill O’Brien would take. However, it wouldn’t be worth the cost. Houston would be in salary cap Hell and also not have enough draft capital to execute a rebuild.

Grade: D

Historical reference: the Oakland Raiders traded this exact package in 2005 to obtain receiver Randy Moss from the Minnesota Vikings.
******

2021 1st, 5th, 6th, rounders & 2022 4th rounder

The Texans would have a premium pick to address quarterback in this year’s draft and then a few day three picks to fill out the roster. The other picks could also be used as part of a package to get another player. Either way, the first-rounder would be the big piece to fix the mess at quarterback.

Grade: D+

Historical reference: the Buffalo Bills used this exact package in the 2020 offseason to acquire Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings.

****

 

2021 1st, 3rd, & 6th rounders

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

This particular trade wouldn’t get in the ballpark of what the Texans were giving up in terms of Watson’s stability as a franchise quarterback. Presuming the first-rounder were to replace Watson, they would still need the third-rounder to pan out, and the sixth-rounder probably wouldn’t be on the team in two years.

Grade: C-

Historical reference: the Dallas Cowboys traded this exact package to the Detroit Lions at the 2008 trade deadline for receiver Roy Williams and a seventh-round pick.

*****

 

2021 1st, 6th rounders; 2022 1st, 3rd rounders

Houston would have the first-rounder to figure out what they could take at quarterback, or fill a hole and hope their two first-rounders in 2022 could provide enough draft capital to take the real deal. The 2022 third-rounder would be the only other pick that could produce a starter.

Grade: C

Historical reference: the Chicago Bears used this exact trade package to acquire outside linebacker Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders in 2018 at the end of 2018 preseason.

****

2021 1st rounder & 2022 1st rounder

This is actually the draft package the Texans used to acquire the No. 12 overall pick from the Cleveland Browns to take Watson in 2017. Houston could possibly take his replacement in 2021, try again in 2022, or convert the pick into its own trade package around draft time April 2022.

Grade: C+

*****

2021 1st, 3rd rounders; 2022 1st rounder & team's starting QB

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

This is the type of situation the Texans would find themselves in if they traded with the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins, who still have first-round quarterbacks on their rookie contracts. The Texans could wish their new quarterback was a capable starter while using the initial first-rounder to fill a need. If Houston was a complete rebuild in the 2022 offseason, they would then have two-first rounders at that point to trade up for their real franchise quarterback.

Grade: B

Historical reference: the Chicago Bears used this exact trade package in 2009 to acquire Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos, who had just hired former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — because the first rule of any Bill Belichick assistant is to win a power struggle with a star player.

****

2021 1st rounder; 2022 1st rounder, 2023 1st rounder

2021 would be a rebuild year, but then Houston would have 2022 with two first-round picks to start thinking about moving up to take a franchise quarterback. If they can’t, they can wheel and deal, and try the same tactic in 2022, where they will again have two first-round picks.

Grade: A

Historical reference: the last time a player netted three first-round picks was Herschel Walker in 1989.
 

****
 

2021 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th rounders; 2022 1st, 3rd rounders

Nick Caserio would be able to adequately rebuild the team after losing Watson. 2021 would be a very lean year where the team probably would be lucky to improve beyond their 4-12 finish in 2020. However, they would have enough draft capital to acquire proven veterans or fill holes with younger talent. In 2022, their two first-rounders would enable them to move up and take another franchise quarterback.

Grade: A+

Historical reference: this is the Ricky Williams trade from 1999 that the New Orleans Saints made with Washington.

[32EBoozer]

3 hours ago, Gangrene said:

2021 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th rounders; 2022 1st, 3rd rounders

Nick Caserio would be able to adequately rebuild the team after losing Watson. 2021 would be a very lean year where the team probably would be lucky to improve beyond their 4-12 finish in 2020. However, they would have enough draft capital to acquire proven veterans or fill holes with younger talent. In 2022, their two first-rounders would enable them to move up and take another franchise quarterback.

Grade: A+

Historical reference: this is the Ricky Williams trade from 1999 that the New Orleans Saints made with Washington.

[Gangrene]

38 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

unlikely unless Mike Ditka signs on in an advisory role to the Jets 

[rangerous]

Maybe I’m not seeing it but none of those trade scenarios seems to be using and draft position values.  I might add that the teams that gave up a boatload of picks didn’t fare so well. Ricky Williams didn’t help New Orleans that much and neither did Walker help the Vikings.

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, Gangrene said:

2021 1st rounder; 2022 1st rounder, 2023 1st rounder

2021 would be a rebuild year, but then Houston would have 2022 with two first-round picks to start thinking about moving up to take a franchise quarterback. If they can’t, they can wheel and deal, and try the same tactic in 2022, where they will again have two first-round picks.

Grade: A

Historical reference: the last time a player netted three first-round picks was Herschel Walker in 1989.
 

 

Hey Joe Douglas, do you want to be known as only the second GM to give up THREE 1st round picks?

 

[joewilly12]

[jetstream23]

41 minutes ago, rangerous said:

Maybe I’m not seeing it but none of those trade scenarios seems to be using and draft position values.  I might add that the teams that gave up a boatload of picks didn’t fare so well. Ricky Williams didn’t help New Orleans that much and neither did Walker help the Vikings.

 

If the Jets give up three 1st round picks AND one of them is the #2 overall then Joe Douglas is either drunk or forgot everything Ozzie Newsome ever taught him.

[Gangrene]

2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

If the Jets give up three 1st round picks AND one of them is the #2 overall then Joe Douglas is either drunk or forgot everything Ozzie Newsome ever taught him.

I'm leaning towards thinking Watson to the Jets likely not happening but if it does, two first round picks, one in each of the 2021, 2022 drafts , plus a second or third in 2022 along Sam Darnold seems  a possibility.

[FidelioJet]

9 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

If the Jets give up three 1st round picks AND one of them is the #2 overall then Joe Douglas is either drunk or forgot everything Ozzie Newsome ever taught him.

I don’t know.

#2, 24 and next year’s higher of the 1’s

I would make that trade right now - without question.  Think we would be getting away cheap.  

Still have 34 this year, full draft next year and a top 5 - 26 year old FQB.

[HighPitch]

This is a bit different. Jets have the #2 pick. Almost like the #1 pick overall if you imagine trevor never existed. Its not just a “1st round pic”

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

You guys love draft picks like you love ginger balls. Three 1s including 2 overall is literally automatic. The best consecutive stretches of FOUR in modern Jets history are Keyshawn-Farrior-Ellis-Abraham and Vilma-Ferguson-Mangold-Revis and you do both of those deals too. The Ricky Williams deal for Watson is like beads for Manhattan.

[Gangrene]

28 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I don’t know.

#2, 24 and next year’s higher of the 1’s

I would make that trade right now - without question.  Think we would be getting away cheap.  

Still have 34 this year, full draft next year and a top 5 - 26 year old FQB.

Getting more picks in the 2022 might benefit the Texans.
If the Texans trade Watson before June 1st the cap saving is 5.4M, after June 1st, the cap saving is 10.5M

At the 2nd overall pick last year, Chase Young's cap rookie hit was 6.3M, 2nd overall pick hit will drop some but not much. Michal Pitman's Jnr cap hit last year at 34th was 1.96M not much

If the Texans were to trade Watson before the draft, get both 1st rd picks in 2021, and not draft down there is a net cap increase on an already cap strapped team.

2022 is where the Texans potentially get a big benefit in cap savings from a DW trade.

 

 

[Jet Life]

Both of those big trades were for running backs which is even crazier. 3 firsts for a 25 year old franchise QB is a great move. We should be on board

[Wonderboy]

3 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

He’s smoking that Ricky Williams ganja.

[Wonderboy]

34 minutes ago, Jet Life said:

Both of those big trades were for running backs which is even crazier. 3 firsts for a 25 year old franchise QB is a great move. We should be on board

Jump overboard 

[batman10023]

How is a first round this year and a first next year a better grade than a first this year and a first and third next year.  Stupid article 

[kevinc855]

Give them everything....

We get a franchise QB

Im sold

[Spoot-Face]

Stupid article is stupid.

Not a word of it makes sense.

[JTJet]

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If the Jets give up three 1st round picks AND one of them is the #2 overall then Joe Douglas is either drunk or forgot everything Ozzie Newsome ever taught him.

This is the only thing that really needs to be said. 

[varjet]

The two trades where the Texans got As have gone down in history as terrible trades for the teams giving up picks.  

[CanadienJetsFan]

[Morrissey]

3 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

Hey Joe Douglas, do you want to be known as only the second GM to give up THREE 1st round picks?

 

Name the other franchise quarterback’s that were traded in their mid-20s

[CTM]

Clicked the link thinking it was going to rank several potential trade partners given QB needy teams and available trade assets 

Not sure the value of ranking against historical non QB trades.

 

[PepPep]

3 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I don’t know.

#2, 24 and next year’s higher of the 1’s

I would make that trade right now - without question.  Think we would be getting away cheap.  

Still have 34 this year, full draft next year and a top 5 - 26 year old FQB.

I completely agree. People are comparing this to the Ricky Williams trade??? This is a FQB. Big difference. People are talking about his contract. Umm, this is what Franchise QBs cost.

The Jets have not been able to find a FQB for ages. When they draft one, they have proven they cannot develop him. Now they find themselves in a position where they have enough cap space and draft capitol where they can afford to trade for a FQB in his prime  who happens to be hitting the trade block and everyone is saying its a huge mistake??? HOW? Assuming the Jets give up #2, 24 and a first next year, like you said, they STILL have a high 2nd rounder, two third round picks, a 1st, 2nd and two third round picks next year. They STILL have lots of draft capitol. And if we can re-coup at least a 3rd for Sam (lets say its for 2022), that add another top 100 draft pick. Like, we can afford to make this kind of move. We're not 'crippling the team' for the future.    

And its not the same as when the Jets traded up for Darnold and gave up future draft picks because A. they did not have as much draft capitol and B. Sam was not a sure thing. If he was, the trade would have been well worth it. 

[ljr]

3 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

If the Jets give up three 1st round picks AND one of them is the #2 overall then Joe Douglas is either drunk or forgot everything Ozzie Newsome ever taught him.

 

while I would love to have to give up less ... I'm all in with a total of 3 of our 5 1st rounders, including the #2 this year 

(I can't believe that Houston is F'ing this up to the point that they'd be willing to get rid of him for that though)

[Alka]

After reading all of the responses from Jets fans on this subject, I realize that there are both a lot of very smart Jets fans, and quite a lot of dumb Jets fans.

I mean, Jets fans fill up the rainbow of IQ from 160 down to 80.  

It means that to be a Jets fan has everything to do with passion and emotion, and nothing to do with being smart.  I am thankful that there are many intelligent Jets fans though.

I believe that Joe Douglas is very smart, so whatever he decides to do, he will not be listening to Jets fans for their advice.

[jetstream23]

How about a 1st in ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 but this year it’s not the #2, it’s the #23?

I’d also want to get some kind of late round pick back from HOU in ‘23, like a 5th rounder or something.

[doitny]

i read an article that laid out the scenario pretty good.

the Texans GM will field all trade offers and then pick a few of the ones he thinks are best for Houston and go to Watson and say..

here are a few teams that i like there offer, are you willing to go to any of them? and then Watson will pick the team that gives him the best chance to win NOW.

and it wont be the highest taxes in the nation, worst roster in the league NY JETS. 

 

[Jetster]

4 hours ago, doitny said:

i read an article that laid out the scenario pretty good.

the Texans GM will field all trade offers and then pick a few of the ones he thinks are best for Houston and go to Watson and say..

here are a few teams that i like there offer, are you willing to go to any of them? and then Watson will pick the team that gives him the best chance to win NOW.

and it wont be the highest taxes in the nation, worst roster in the league NY JETS. 

 

Nostrodomus 

[FidelioJet]

9 hours ago, Alka said:

After reading all of the responses from Jets fans on this subject, I realize that there are both a lot of very smart Jets fans, and quite a lot of dumb Jets fans.

I mean, Jets fans fill up the rainbow of IQ from 160 down to 80.  

It means that to be a Jets fan has everything to do with passion and emotion, and nothing to do with being smart.  I am thankful that there are many intelligent Jets fans though.

I believe that Joe Douglas is very smart, so whatever he decides to do, he will not be listening to Jets fans for their advice.

In which bucket to do you fall?

[BCJet]

5 hours ago, doitny said:

i read an article that laid out the scenario pretty good.

the Texans GM will field all trade offers and then pick a few of the ones he thinks are best for Houston and go to Watson and say..

here are a few teams that i like there offer, are you willing to go to any of them? and then Watson will pick the team that gives him the best chance to win NOW.

and it wont be the highest taxes in the nation, worst roster in the league NY JETS. 

 

Please remember that for any discussions involving state taxes, player pay taxes to the state where they play their away games, so its not an all or nothing situation going from NJ to Texas.

[Ghost]

6 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

How about a 1st in ‘21, ‘22, ‘23 but this year it’s not the #2, it’s the #23?

I’d also want to get some kind of late round pick back from HOU in ‘23, like a 5th rounder or something.

So essentially we’re trading Jamal Adams and our 2023 1st round pick. Seriously, if anyone thinks that’s ridiculous for a franchise QB who has yet to enter his prime, then they’re on that Tyrone Biggums crack. 

[rangerous]

14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 

If the Jets give up three 1st round picks AND one of them is the #2 overall then Joe Douglas is either drunk or forgot everything Ozzie Newsome ever taught him.

yep, that's what i'm thinking.

[Jet Nut]

16 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

Or you're Mike Ditka

 

[playtowinthegame]