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Daniel Jeremiah first mock is out


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He's wrong this year.

Obviously this is the mock you want to pay attention to as a Jets fan. He nailed the Becton to Jets pick last year. He’s got us going with Zach Wilson.    

A few things:  If the Jets are picking second, I agree they will pick Zach Wilson. There is no scenario they pick 2nd and draft a player that's not a QB. As the process unfolds, I think we'll

On 1/23/2021 at 5:51 PM, football guy said:

It's based on what I was told by a member of the front office lol

Honestly any of these mocks - even with someone an ear in the FO - seem way too premature before the combine or league-organized pro days or whatever they are, plus all of FA, never mind the elephant in the room league-wide of what's going to happen with Watson and/or Stafford.

The draft isn't for another 3 months, and far too much of significance happens between now & then, so it never matches January mocks outside of a unanimous #1 overall pick QB going #1. 

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@football guy what are you hearing in terms of the gap between Lawrence and Wilson? Not to diminish the shoulder issue concerns as that is a significant factor when drafting a player. But from a pure talent perspective, what are you hearing about the gap between those two?

I also find it odd that Lawrence’s game is not being questioned. Great prospect and should go number 1. But on his deep ball, often times his WRs are winning those 50/50 balls. Wilson and Fields have better deep ball accuracy than Lawrence. Just one part of their games of course. 

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Pre- the 2018 draft I recall Dan Orlovsky, after many hours of careful film study of Josh Allen, going all in on pronouncing that he could not process defenses at the line of scrimmage and would fail at the next level.

Ironically Orlovesky's issue was not about Allen's accuracy, which was poor at the time, it was about his processing ability. Others, instead raved about Allens potential based on arm strength, toughness and mobility. No one cared so much about his low level of competition even though he did play in a pro style offense under Craig Bohl in Wyoming.

Now I wonder about these pronouncements about Field's processing ability. How much can you accurately predict a kids ability to process?  In theory one could say the speed of processing does not change over time but clearly coaching unleashed Josh Allen's potential.  Perhaps it wasn't processing ability after all, maybe for Josh Allen it was just coaching and being surrounded by poor talent.

In every draft there are football players with little college production but projected high ceiling potential. Few reach that ceiling but Allen while imperfect has gone far.

No one truly knows where Fields is destined to end up in terms of what he will achieve. We know that he is physically gifted but he has a long way to go. I hope he proves us skeptics all wrong.

Zach Wilson is exciting but a left and right shoulder surgery plus a throwing hand surgery on what is  slight build might be the biggest risk. I am guessing he has a low bust factor but will he take the hits? The dude needs a Colts-type oline and a lot of luck.

Trey Lance is all potential, with a thin playing resume.  Out of the three I would prefer to sign a vet for now, trade down  a few spots in the draft for Trey Lance and have him redshirt for a shot at the future. 

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2 hours ago, section314 said:

The league hasn't caught up to Lamar Jackson? OK.

In 2020, he had a 81.5 PFF grade, 26 passing touchdowns, 9 INTs, 1005 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs. You wouldn't sign up for that?

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

I appreciate the tag but I'm legit done with the QB conversations on this board.  Never in all my years of posting, doing draft takes and following prospects religiously have I seen a more asinine year for QB takes.  I thought 17/18 was bad, omg, this year is taking it to a whole other level of stupidity.  Legit.  I've never read such awful takes in my life and it's nauseating and legit not even worth a second of conversation.

 "Zach Wilson is the greatest down field thrower ever" - lmfao - like what the ****?  What's the point if this is the type of sh*t we're going to just throw around.  TL is generational, Zach ****ign Wilson is the "best ever" at something, anything and Fields is Cam Newton because he's black.

**** that.  What a waste of time.  I appreciate your dedication though.

 

I'm pretty much done as well, I just needed to get it off my chest one last time. 

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3 minutes ago, maury77 said:

In 2020, he had a 81.5 PFF grade, 26 passing touchdowns, 9 INTs, 1005 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs. You wouldn't sign up for that?

No because you cant win big games w/ him.  They can have good regular seasons and a playoff win or 2 but ur not winning a super bowl w a qb who can pass the ball.

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Honestly any of these mocks - even with someone an ear in the FO - seem way too premature before the combine or league-organized pro days or whatever they are, plus all of FA, never mind the elephant in the room league-wide of what's going to happen with Watson and/or Stafford.

The draft isn't for another 3 months, and far too much of significance happens between now & then, so it never matches January mocks outside of a unanimous #1 overall pick QB going #1. 

The idea that the front office knows what QB they want, right now, before having 2 seconds with any of them, is another reason in a long list of reasons, I'm totally uninterested in having a QB debate this offseason.  It's completely absurd. 

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Never in all my years of posting, doing draft takes and following prospects religiously have I seen a more asinine year for QB takes. 

Superovercorrection. The traditional draft media experts generally whiffed so ******* hard on Watson, Mahomes, Haskins, and Josh Allen that they lost all credibility. And when there are no experts, everyone’s an expert. 

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15 minutes ago, maury77 said:

In 2020, he had a 81.5 PFF grade, 26 passing touchdowns, 9 INTs, 1005 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs. You wouldn't sign up for that?

Sure, it was a good season, but that's not the basis of my comment. All season long, the criticism of the Ravens was that their offense was terrible, and that Greg Roman had to do something because the league had caught up to Jackson. He's a great talent, but to win in this league consistently, you have to do it in the pocket.

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20 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Superovercorrection. The traditional draft media experts generally whiffed so ******* hard on Watson, Mahomes, Haskins, and Josh Allen that they lost all credibility. And when there are no experts, everyone’s an expert. 

Draft experts get it right more than they get it wrong. The problem is that everyone remembers the mistakes. 

Future predictions are hard. Mock drafts, weather forecasting, stock market predictions. If a dude had 100 percent accuracy he'd he a millionaire 

What the mocks are good for, as a group, is setting the prices on the market. 

And speaking of which. Mel kiper mock just came out today and they had Davonta Smith at 2. Wilson went 4,Sewell went 5 and fields went 9

 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

Draft experts get it right more than they get it wrong. The problem is that everyone remembers the mistakes. 

Future predictions are hard. Mock drafts, weather forecasting, stock market predictions. If a dude had 100 percent accuracy he'd he a millionaire 

What the mocks are good for, as a group, is setting the prices on the market. 

And speaking of which. Mel kiper mock just came out today and they had Davonta Smith at 2. Wilson went 4,Sewell went 5 and fields went 9

 

Is there any that full mock could be posted here?

I'll take my answer off the air. 

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26 minutes ago, section314 said:

Sure, it was a good season, but that's not the basis of my comment. All season long, the criticism of the Ravens was that their offense was terrible, and that Greg Roman had to do something because the league had caught up to Jackson. He's a great talent, but to win in this league consistently, you have to do it in the pocket.

I would like to see Lamar with some good outside receivers to see how he does.

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8 hours ago, football guy said:

I mean your just redefining what development means on the fly, adding more qualifiers that really don't explain what "QB development" most generally means in the NFL, in order to defend your position which quite frankly doesn't really make sense... It's not about results, it's about process... and again, your overgeneralizing some very microscopic points while ignoring the overall big-picture.

 

Orrrrrr, you're operating with an archaic/dated notion of developed. The reason why (logic would suggest) we call them pro-style offenses... is because they were used often in the pros. So there was obviously a high correlation between having exposure in those system and being successful

what it doesn't mean;

  • just having played in a pro-I doesn't mean you're more developed. Definitely not by todays standards.
  • There is no more correlation. The "pro-style" offense having anything to do with predictable success in the NFL is not statistically significant. None of the top QBs were developed in pro-Os
  • You're championing the QB coach's weekend seminar in cedar rapids as a predictor of success... Which inherently suggests developed. Otherwise you're saying winning QBs may or may not be developed -- and if so then what the hell does it matter. 
  •  
8 hours ago, football guy said:

What makes you think that Justin Fields would perform better? There's nothing on tape to suggest such. Do you have access to him? Have you worked on the board with him? Are you saying that Fields is playing for Greg Roman or for Kyle Shanahan? How about Lance? Why don't you think he's as NFL ready as Wentz was? 

I haven't watched enough Lance to make any declarations, and honestly, don't care to get too proud with QBs. it's most inexact science of evaluation sometimes... what makes me think Fields will do better right now? My eye balls. They're on when i watch the game. You don't need a team of coaches breaking down all-22 all the time to make an/every assessment. Fields is further along with playing competitive football. 

If you want to take the time to walk me through why Fields vs Clemson was "meh" and Lance looking like Hackenberg vs Central Arkansas was a total aberration  - you might win me over. 

@sec101row23 @JiF am i crazy? help me out, maybe I am that ignorant. 

*edit just saw you're "fck you fck you,  you're cool, i'm out" post.... teach me the way. 

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4 hours ago, maury77 said:

The whole issue that many are struggling with is that different people value different things in QBs as prospects. Let's take 2018 for example. A lot of people (myself included) valued the more finished prospect (Rosen and Mayfield) over the QB with more upside (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson). I was clearly wrong, but that doesn't mean you should always value upside over pro readiness (that would be an overreaction on my end from a small sample size). 

I'm not going to try to convince you that you are wrong (we are both lawyers and we know how difficult it is to change someone's opinion), but for those that are still on the fence between Fields and Wilson, let's compare:

Mark Schofield is one of the best writers about QB play on the internet and he wrote an article about QB traits and which are natural versus the ones that can improve with time: http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/2016-nfl-draft/2016/03/17/quarterback-traits-the-attainable-versus-the-inherent/

I'm going to use that article as a starting point and go from there.

Size: Fields. Even assuming that their school listings are true (and I am HIGHLY skeptical of Wilson's numbers), Fields is listed at 6'3" 230 while Wilson is listed 6'3", 210lbs. Can Wilson put on weight? Hypothetically, yes as he is a man in his early 20s, but look at this interview of Wilson (I acknowledge this is not the most scientific approach):

Look at the width of his shoulders. He's got a small frame for an NFL QB and I have serious doubts that he will able to put on a lot of weight. 

Durability: Fields. Fields does have some injuries in his past (hip pointer in the championship game and a thumb injury earlier in the season), but Wilson has had surgeries on both shoulders. Availability is your best ability. I don't believe durability can improve, although I think it can get worse once you reach the pros if you don't learn to take care of your body (Fields needs to improve at this). 

Athleticism: Fields. Wilson has good mobility, but Fields is, on tape, clearly the better athlete. Wilson can improve his athleticism some, but he is never going to catch Fields as an athlete. 

Footwork: Fields. Fields consistently resets his feet towards his target. Wilson often throws off platform (one of his strengths) without needing to, but I think Wilson can catch up to Fields on this as it is an attainable trait (unless you are Sam Darnold, whose footwork has somehow gotten worse since his rookie season). 

Fluidity: Tie (this is an inherent trait according to Schofield). 

Throwing Mechanics: Tie

Arm Talent: "This is a loose term that refers to the ability to consistently make every type of throw. By this definition, arm talent would include arm strength because it takes arm strength to make deep passes to the sideline as well as passes far downfield. This does not mean that a quarterback has to have an elite arm, but simply that he has enough arm strength to make deep and intermediate passes. Arm talent also includes accuracy, because every type of throw includes proper ball placement. One aspect of arm talent that often overlooked is touch. Certain throws require taking something off or lobbing a pass over a defender. Even though raw strength is not a factor in touch, this is not an easy skill.

For a quarterback to have arm talent, he would have to have all three of these traits. A player like Colin Kaepernick might have an amazing arm, but struggles making touch passes; therefore, he does not have arm talent, he has great arm strength. Although he has tried to work on his touch, he has not shown that he can consistently make those passes – further evidence that arm talent is an inherent trait. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, can make every type of throw, from amazing Hail Mary passes, to pin-point sideline passes, to seam passes that barely get over the outstretched fingertips of a linebacker. He has arm talent – maybe the best arm talent in the world."

I think it was important to define "arm talent" first. Using this definition, I believe Wilson and Fields are tied. I think WIlson's arm strength is a bit overrated. I think the best way to show arm strength is the throw to the far sideline.

Wilson: Look at the throw at 3:40. The ball starts to die as it gets to the WR

 

Fields: Look at 8:00. Same throw and it is a rope.

Quick release: Wilson. Wilson has an effortless throwing motion and I don't think Fields (who can improve here) will ever catch Wilson. 

Reading a Defense: I can't render an honest opinion here because I don't have all 22 film for both Wilson and Fields, but it has been deemed an attainable trait so let's assume both guys can improve in this area. 

Mental Processing; WIlson. I do disagree with Schofield here that this area cannot be improved upon with experience. For example, there are many examples of Fields processing his reads quickly, but as of right now, he does not do it as consistently as Wilson does. Wilson has played in more games (30 vs 22) and I think as Fields gets more experienced, his processing speed will become more consistent. 

Accuracy from a clean pocket: Tie

Accuracy throwing from different positions: Wilson. This is his best trait, no one in the draft is better at it and I doubt Fields ever catches him here. 

Eye Manipulation: TIe. I've seen examples of both guys doing it on film and it is an attainable trait. 

Poise in the pocket: Fields. Fields will consistently hang in the pocket and take a shot to deliver a throw. This is the area about Wilson that bothers me the most. When he is in the pocket undisturbed, he makes some nice throws. But there are a lot of examples with Wilson of him abandoning the pocket without necessity or running backwards ala Geno Smith. This is an inherent trait and I think Wilson is afraid of getting hit (I think Darnold also has this problem and I missed this on his film in college). 

Clutch Factor: Fields. Wilson has played well in his bowl games, but what Fields did on national TV this year against Clemson (after having to come out of the game because of the shot he took) was one of the most clutch games I've seen at the college level. 

Decision making: Fields. As slow as Fields can be at processing at times, you rarely see him make bad decisions (even if he misses some reads). This is why he has such a high TD to INT ratio in his career. Wilson has a good TD to INT ratio as well (although not quite as high as Fields), but Wilson gets away with a lot of risky throws because of the level of competition he plays against. 

Work ethic: I can't opine on this. 

So the question is this: Do you want the Baker Mayfield prospect (Wilson) who may set a rookie record for TDs only to have the league catch up to him by his second and third year when he caps out as maybe an above average QB or do you want the Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen candidate (Fields) who will be more limited his first or second season but be a top 5-10 QB by his third season? I'll take the latter, but I understand why you and others may prefer the former. @JiF @Paradis

Hard disagree on Wilson’s throw power. You can’t point out one throw and claim it shows his whole ability. In particular that back shoulder throw you mention is thrown perfectly to give his WR who is well covered to get the ball. Fields’s guy is wide open against a Michigan CB while Wilson throws his guy open against a Boise CB. Fields doesn’t lack an arm but Wilson has special arm strength and accuracy. 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

The idea that the front office knows what QB they want, right now, before having 2 seconds with any of them, is another reason in a long list of reason, I'm totally uninterested in having a QB debate this offseason.  It's completely absurd. 

Yeah, I hear you.

Just like Watson, for one. If he's available for just #2, I'd be confident that they're interested. If he's available only for 5 #1s including #2 overall this year plus 3 #2s (or pick some absurd package) then they probably aren't. Where the FO's scale is tipped to "we'll find a different QB" is pure guesswork at this point. 

Plus it's so early because no one's had 1-on-1 (zoom or in person) with any prospect, or get their measurable thingies in that shuffles things around more than it should, let alone offers for the pick coming in (whether it's for another prospect or for Watson). 

I'm probably more interested in discussion than you are because I haven't watched these guys much (let alone a lot). I want to see the Jets get a top-notch QB but don't have a dog in this race which it is, other than known quantity veterans available via trade. 

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

I appreciate the tag but I'm legit done with the QB conversations on this board.  Never in all my years of posting, doing draft takes and following prospects religiously have I seen a more asinine year for QB takes.  I thought 17/18 was bad, omg, this year is taking it to a whole other level of stupidity.  Legit.  I've never read such awful takes in my life and it's nauseating and legit not even worth a second of conversation.

 "Zach Wilson is the greatest down field thrower ever" - lmfao - like what the ****?  What's the point if this is the type of sh*t we're going to just throw around.  TL is generational, Zach ****ign Wilson is the "best ever" at something, anything and Fields is Cam Newton because he's black.

**** that.  What a waste of time.  I appreciate your dedication though.

 

Hyperbole does rule at this time. It’s also super early on in the process and there are more “draft voices” than ever. The thing about Fields that’s confusing me is that he is objectively a super good prospect. He has a strong arm, great athleticism and he’s won a lot of games. Yet people have no problem falling out of love with him. My brain says black QB bias but Trey Lance is climbing back into consensus top 15 pick status while not playing and be an FCS player. 

Also Wilson put together (statistically) a great downfield passing resume. Like objectively he’s great at it. 

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35 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah, I hear you.

Just like Watson, for one. If he's available for just #2, I'd be confident that they're interested. If he's available only for 5 #1s including #2 overall this year plus 3 #2s (or pick some absurd package) then they probably aren't. Where the FO's scale is tipped to "we'll find a different QB" is pure guesswork at this point. 

Plus it's so early because no one's had 1-on-1 (zoom or in person) with any prospect, or get their measurable thingies in that shuffles things around more than it should, let alone offers for the pick coming in (whether it's for another prospect or for Watson). 

I'm probably more interested in discussion than you are because I haven't watched these guys much (let alone a lot). I want to see the Jets get a top-notch QB but don't have a dog in this race which it is, other than known quantity veterans available via trade. 

Right on and I get it, fwiw, a lot of my thoughts are out there when the conversations were rational.  QB thread for example but we're in looney tunes land now and it's not desirable.  I think the other part of my lack of motivation to have the conversation is I really feel like they're going to trade down and roll with Darnold another year and that is so depressing that I'm find a hard time having any excitement overall about this team.  lol

 

 

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Orrrrrr, you're operating with an archaic/dated notion of developed. The reason why (logic would suggest) we call them pro-style offenses... is because they were used often in the pros. So there was obviously a high correlation between having exposure in those system and being successful

what it doesn't mean;

  • just having played in a pro-I doesn't mean you're more developed. Definitely not by todays standards.
  • There is no more correlation. The "pro-style" offense having anything to do with predictable success in the NFL is not statistically significant. None of the top QBs were developed in pro-Os
  • You're championing the QB coach's weekend seminar in cedar rapids as a predictor of success... Which inherently suggests developed. Otherwise you're saying winning QBs may or may not be developed -- and if so then what the hell does it matter. 
  •  

I haven't watched enough Lance to make any declarations, and honestly, don't care to get too proud with QBs. it's most inexact science of evaluation sometimes... what makes me think Fields will do better right now? My eye balls. They're on when i watch the game. You don't need a team of coaches breaking down all-22 all the time to make an/every assessment. Fields is further along with playing competitive football. 

If you want to take the time to walk me through why Fields vs Clemson was "meh" and Lance looking like Hackenberg vs Central Arkansas was a total aberration  - you might win me over. 

@sec101row23 @JiF am i crazy? help me out, maybe I am that ignorant. 

*edit just saw you're "fck you fck you,  you're cool, i'm out" post.... teach me the way. 

I’m not sure how someone can make the case that Lance is further along in his development than Fields just because he played at NDSU.  Let’s not pretend this is the Stanford offense circa 2011 when Andrew Luck was there.  Lance has 318 pass attempts and 119 rush attempts for his ENTIRE college career, that ratio doesn’t scream “pro style” to me.   He’s talented has a nice arm, but has such a little body of work that I’m not sure you can draw those kind of conclusions.   
 

It’s become pretty interesting seeing people discount certain QBs because of the “system” they play in.   I think mostly it is because people want to either prop up another prospect or knock down a kid to fit whatever their narrative is.   At the end of the day you evaluate the talent and skill set a kid has, ultimately it will come down to how fast can he process what he sees.  That’s just so hard to tell until they get into the NFL and are forced to make those decisions.  

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10 minutes ago, JiF said:

Dude, there was a poster on this site arguing that Justin Fields made the wrong decision throwing his best TD pass during the Clemson game.  That's how mindlessly stupid and jaded the QB prospect conversation has become.  This dude just told you that Justin Fields, who played in 2 different systems in the same amount of years and went ******* bonkers his first year in the OSU system cant grasp an NFL offense.  The same kid that got into Harvard and Yale and has been the #2 QB prospect in the country behind TL for 7 years.  Meanwhile, Zach Wilson is the greatest down field passer...."ever".  Dude, "ever".  lmfao   Why bother? 

 

Throwing to the open guy has somehow become a negative trait for a QB in 2020.   

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I would be ecstatic with a QB and RB in round 1.  My preference is Fields, but as as long as the Jets pick a QB at #2, I will trust JD to make the right call. Etienne in the late first round would cap off a phenomenal haul for the Jets imo. 

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Superovercorrection. The traditional draft media experts generally whiffed so ******* hard on Watson, Mahomes, Haskins, and Josh Allen that they lost all credibility. And when there are no experts, everyone’s an expert. 

The nerds have been hitting the head on these guys for a while. Forget minor updates to something like QBASE every year for a second: A prospect like Allen comes out the same probability every time, and he should. A guy like Mahomes comes out the same thing every time, and he should. Allen had a 1 in 3 chance of not busting. You don't take that at 3. Watson was about 10 points less. Mahomes was less than 50/50 at busting and something like a 1 in 4 shot he became upper tier. Nobody listened. Don't blame the media because you schlemiels are obsessed with Mel Kiper.

Also worth noting: Sure, guys like Watson and Darnold were within each other's margins, and to the average layman that translates to eye test derp stuff. But if people can understand the basic logistics behind the odds of a coin flip, I'm not sure why understanding 50% odds for both those guys is so hard to comprehend either. Minimizing risk based on stratified criteria doesn't mean people don't know sh*t. Quite the opposite, actually.

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3 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Throwing to the open guy has somehow become a negative trait for a QB in 2020.   

yet if wilson throws into tight windows he's doing it vs crappy competition.  the glass is either half full or empty depending on your take on the qb.  

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

Draft experts get it right more than they get it wrong. The problem is that everyone remembers the mistakes. 

Future predictions are hard. Mock drafts, weather forecasting, stock market predictions. If a dude had 100 percent accuracy he'd he a millionaire 

What the mocks are good for, as a group, is setting the prices on the market. 

And speaking of which. Mel kiper mock just came out today and they had Davonta Smith at 2. Wilson went 4,Sewell went 5 and fields went 9

 

The vast majority of All Pros and Pro Bowlers come from the first two rounds, but yes the draft process is a sham. Teams whiff on quarterbacks a lot but that's a very easy to comprehend reason of supply and demand. Obviously the Justin Fields equivalent of a cornerback isn't a top 5 pick. Duh. Thanks everyone for that brilliant insight.

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3 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The nerds have been hitting the head on these guys for a while. Forget minor updates to something like QBASE every year for a second: A prospect like Allen comes out the same probability every time, and he should. A guy like Mahomes comes out the same thing every time, and he should. Allen had a 1 in 3 chance of not busting. You don't take that at 3. Watson was about 10 points less. Mahomes was less than 50/50 at busting and something like a 1 in 4 shot he became upper tier. Nobody listened. Don't blame the media because you schlemiels are obsessed with Mel Kiper.

Also worth noting: Sure, guys like Watson and Darnold were within each other's margins, and to the average layman that translates to eye test derp stuff. But if people can understand the basic logistics behind the odds of a coin flip, I'm not sure why understanding 50% odds for both those guys is so hard to comprehend either. Minimizing risk based on stratified criteria doesn't mean people don't know sh*t. Quite the opposite, actually.

I'm curious if there's anyone who has any statistical analysis on the situations these quarterbacks are placed in?

It'd be incredibly hard to judge given you cannot know what Sam Darnold would do if having gone to the Chiefs a year after Mahomes and vice versa.

But as a layman that isn't well versed in data analytics, just from 'watching the footballs' on Sunday, it's clear that situation Mahomes landed in was near perfect for developing a quarterback, no?

  • Esteemed, innovative offensive coach
  • Sit for a year 
  • Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hill
  • Stable, although not spectacular, offensive line

I just think it would be informative and interesting to see any type of analysis of 'situation' and its impact on bust rate/hit rate. 

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Honestly any of these mocks - even with someone an ear in the FO - seem way too premature before the combine or league-organized pro days or whatever they are, plus all of FA, never mind the elephant in the room league-wide of what's going to happen with Watson and/or Stafford.

The draft isn't for another 3 months, and far too much of significance happens between now & then, so it never matches January mocks outside of a unanimous #1 overall pick QB going #1. 

This is all true it is pre Mobile 

and with that, here's Mel Kiper's latest mock 

Jets take DeVonta Smith at 2 

Quote

This is where the intrigue in the draft begins. Will the Jets stick with quarterback Sam Darnold for another year, or will they take either Zach Wilson or Justin Fields? (Or maybe even trade for Deshaun Watson?) The good news for general manager Joe Douglas and new coach Robert Saleh is that they have three months to figure it out. This is a huge decision, and Douglas and Saleh have to be 100% sure that Wilson or Fields is an upgrade over Darnold. My feeling right now is that yes, Darnold’s stats are ugly, but he’s only 23 and he has had no offensive talent around him for three years. Do the Jets really want to move on from him and watch him thrive elsewhere? That’s why they could give him a one-year audition under Saleh, pick the Heisman Trophy winner at No. 2, and give Darnold one more shot to put all of his talent together. Smith is the true No. 1 target that Darnold hasn’t had.

works for Quinnen

side note let's let Quinnen williams make all these picks, couldn't be worse than previous GM's

without scraping Insider here's what I could cobble together from other links @RedBeardedSavage

1 - JAX - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

2 - NYJ - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

3 - MIA - JaMarr Chase, WR, LSU

4 - ATL - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

5 - CIN - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

6 - PHI - Jalen Waddle, WR, Alabama

7 - DET - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

8 - CAR - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU

9 - DEN - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

10 - DAL - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern

11 - NYG - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

12 - SFO - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

13 - LAC - Christian Darrisaw, OT, VA Tech

14 - MIN - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

15 - NEP - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama  

16 - ARZ - Caleb Farley, CB, VA Tech

17 - LVR - Jaelen Phillips, DE, Miami 

18 - MIA - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

19 - WAS - Kadarius Toney, Florida

20 - CHI - Tevin Jenkins, OT, Ole Miss

21 - IND - Kwity Paye, ER, Michigan 

22 - TEN - Gregory Rousseau, ER, Miami

23 - NYJ - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina 

24 - PIT - Zaven Collins, ER, Tulsa

25 - JAX - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama 

26 - CLE - Aaron Robinson, DB, UCF

27 - BAL - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU 

28 - NOS - Trevon Moehrig, DB, TCU

29 - GBP - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

30 - BUF - NaJee Harris, RB, Alabama  

31 - TBB - Joe Tyron, DE, Washington 

32 - KCC - Azeez Ojulari, ER, Georgia

 

 

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Just now, RedBeardedSavage said:

I'm curious if there's anyone who has any statistical analysis on the situations these quarterbacks are placed in?

It'd be incredibly hard to judge given you cannot know what Sam Darnold would do if having gone to the Chiefs a year after Mahomes and vice versa.

But as a layman that isn't well versed in data analytics, just from 'watching the footballs' on Sunday, it's clear that situation Mahomes landed in was near perfect for developing a quarterback, no?

  • Esteemed, innovative offensive coach
  • Sit for a year 
  • Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hill
  • Stable, although not spectacular, offensive line

I just think it would be informative and interesting to see any type of analysis of 'situation' and its impact on bust rate/hit rate. 

Tons of stuff on this out there. Coaching matters and teammates matter. Nobody out there has ever argued otherwise and for some reason this seems to be the primary strawman fans defer to. Everything in statistics is posited on probability and what the most likely situation is. Time and time again, player after player, the most likely answer is a pretty simple one: If a guy is good, he'll eventually be good. If he's not, he won't be. Usually by the end of year 3. 

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40 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Hyperbole does rule at this time. It’s also super early on in the process and there are more “draft voices” than ever. The thing about Fields that’s confusing me is that he is objectively a super good prospect. He has a strong arm, great athleticism and he’s won a lot of games. Yet people have no problem falling out of love with him. My brain says black QB bias but Trey Lance is climbing back into consensus top 15 pick status while not playing and be an FCS player. 

Also Wilson put together (statistically) a great downfield passing resume. Like objectively he’s great at it. 

People are stupid and like to have hot takes so that maybe possibly one day they could say, see I told you so.  

Objectively, he's got 1 year of a "resume" to speak of and it's behind Mac Jones so getting back to the overall point, Wilson is a nice down field passer, greatest ever?  No.  That's insane.

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32 minutes ago, JiF said:

  I think the other part of my lack of motivation to have the conversation is I really feel like they're going to trade down and roll with Darnold another year and that is so depressing that I'm find a hard time having any excitement overall about this team.  lol

Regarding the rolling with Sam scenario -- i think we have to appreciate that IF....IF JD was going to draft Fields (for example) there's no incentive to show his hand right now. Every PR person would be screaming "talk up Darnold..." until he's traded or the pick is -- play possum. At least until april. 

Otherwise you've talking about countless questions thrown at the organization about Sam

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