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Mock Offseason (Building around Watson)


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I'm going to be making a few different Mock Offseasons (keep Sam) (draft QB) (Watson) etc. There has been a popular narrative around the Jets fan base that the Jets would not be able to field a team a

Didn't read past 4 first round picks.  I'll join my dad w/ Browns before i condone that kind of f*ckery

4 #1’s???? 1 Bla 2 Bla 3 Bla 4 Bla Bla Bla Bla Bla

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3 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Didn't read past 4 first round picks. 

I'll join my dad w/ Browns before i condone that kind of f*ckery

When I saw 4 #1’s, I immediately screeched BLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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10 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

Seems weird that the 49ers would want Sam and we wouldn’t? 

They didn’t watch him suck in virtually every game this past season. We did.

makes sense to me 

 

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53 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

When I saw 4 #1’s, I immediately screeched BLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Yea, f*ck that - for no other reason than f*ck that. HOU? kiss my ass, you're not getting 4 First round picks. You can have this year's #2 (worth at least two in and of itself), next year's #1 -- and then Darnold and change. 

More? 

Kiss these green nuts. 

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37 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

They didn’t watch him suck in virtually every game this past season. We did.

makes sense to me 

 

The people making the decision should have exactly the same viewpoint. 

Shannahan vs Saleh/Lafleur 

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1 minute ago, Paradis said:

Yea, f*ck that - for no other reason than f*ck that. HOU? kiss my ass, you're not getting 4 First round picks. You can have this year's #2 (worth at least two in and of itself), next year's #1 -- and then Darnold and change. 

More? 

Kiss these green nuts. 

Texans would be morons not to take a deal like that. Their options are somewhat limited and I doubt they’d get a better offer. At #2, they’d have their choice of Fields or Wilson. If anything, JD could play hardball and offer #2, Seattle’s 2022, and change. 

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1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

I'm going to be making a few different Mock Offseasons (keep Sam) (draft QB) (Watson) etc. There has been a popular narrative around the Jets fan base that the Jets would not be able to field a team around Watson and that we'd just mimic the situation in Houston here. While I think the Daniel Jeremiah trade offer has a legit shot of happening (3 first rounders over the next 3 years) I wanted to switch it a little bit to make it more difficult. For this mock we are going to say we lose both firsts this year plus future picks. I also have us trading Sam to the 49ers for a 2nd round pick, chose that purely for the Saleh 49ers connection but I think either way the Jets will be able to rope in a 2nd for Sam. We save $4.7M by trading Sam.

 

**Disclaimer - I used a combo of Tankathon & PFF Big Boards - rankings could change**

 

Primary Needs

QB, WR, Edge, CB, IOL, RB, K

Secondary Needs

TE, LB, S, RT

 

Starting Point

Spotrac - $65M

Over the Cap - $63M <- Using this as it is the lower of the 2 options

 

TRADES

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Deshaun Watson for 4 First Round Picks - You can call it 3 Firsts if you want, point is we lose both this season. People are freaking out over his "$40M contract" but when traded we have to remove the signing bonus and it becomes VERY favorable, considering Jackson, Allen, & Dak are poised to hit the $40M this offseason.

2021 - $10M

2022 - $35M

2023 - $37M

2024 - $32M

2025 - $32M

 

Sam Darnold for 49ers 2nd Round Pick. (Save $4.7M in cap)

 

Cuts

Henry Anderson - $8.2M

Alex Lewis - $5.4M

Josh Doctson - $1M

We could cut Fant or Crowder to save more money if we want but for the sake of argument we are going to hold onto both for this season. 

 

Let Walk

Perriman

Jenkins

Gore

McDougald

Smith

Smith

Flacco

 

Resign

Marcus Maye - 4 Years $44M ($11M per year) - same price as the franchise tag, spotrac has his expected value at $8.5M per year but again wanted to play it safe

Brian Poole - 3 Years $18M ($6M per year) - been rock solid in the slot, gets a slight raise with more years

Neville Hewitt - 1 Year $2M - Solid depth LB, with the uncertainty of Mosley I think we look to keep our leading tackler. Same contract Peanut was on.

Pat Elflein - 1 Year $2M - solid depth, played reasonably well next to Becton. Not someone we want to rely on full time but there is a reason we claimed him on waivers

 

 

Free Agency

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Joe Thuney - 4 Years $60M ($15M per year) - This makes Thuney the highest paid G in the league. I think this will be Douglas' first signing if Thuney hits the open market. Committed 3 penalties over the last 2 seasons, has never missed a start, and can play every position on the OL. If we don't land him you can swap out for Scherff or a cheaper G, this will likely be addressed in FA.

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Allen Robinson - 5 years $100M ($20M per year) - Robinson gets the same deal Amari Cooper got at $20M per season, would be able to move on in 3 years when Mims comes up for a contract. Robinson has been liking posts of Deshaun going to the Jets, I think he sees an opportunity to get paid AND play with the best QB he's ever been with. Again you can swap his name out for any one of Godwin, Golladay, Davis, or Samuel - all will likely be less money than Robinson but the idea is the same, get Watson a legit #1 WR.

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Richard Sherman - 1 year $7M - I don't love the idea of adding Sherman but just like Rex with Scott & Leonard and Gase with Thomas & Gore, Saleh will look to bring in some of "his guys" to help with the culture change and install of the defense. If you could convince Sherman to take a coaching position instead, I'd prefer that but I think the vocal leader that players look up to is a wise move either way. He has mentioned moving to Safety in his later years, perhaps that's the route we take.

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Ronald Blair - 1 Year $2M - Same contract he had for this past season. He tore his ACL at the end of 2019, Saleh apparently likes the kid a lot. Same as Sherman, bring in do the culture and scheme while providing some upside in the pass rush. He has been stuck behind all first round picks so who knows maybe he's got something more in a full time gig.

 

Updated Salary Cap - $10.8M

- Since we no longer have 2 first round picks, we will likely only use about ~$5M to sign our rookie draft class.

 

NFL Draft

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2A) Asante Samuel Jr - CB - FSU - He's been rock solid as a man CB, he is the son of former AFC East rival Asante Samuel Sr. Jets get their starting CB opposite Bryce Hall.

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2B) Trey Smith - G - Tennessee - Even with signing Thuney the Jets are going to need to address the other starting G, ideally Clarke, Van Roten, and Smith could all duke it out. If Guard doesn't tickle your fancy feel free to swap for an Edge, I do think we still need IOL at somepoint as both starters were back this season. My other option I'd look at is Creed Humphrey as he can play Center and Guard.

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3A) Patrick Jones II - Edge - Pitt - I get the feeling Jones could jump up draft boards, in the event of that swap this with Joe Tryon, I'm high on both guys.

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3B) Kenny Gainwell - RB - Memphis - Opted out due to COVID (4 family members died), guy is going to be an elite threat out of the backfield and will fit the bill as a Shanahan RB, sub 4.4 40

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4) Cameron McGrone - LB - Michigan - Mosley has been out for 2 seasons, we don't know how effective he will look after so much time away. The Jets hedge their bets as Hewitt is only on a 1 year deal.

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5A) Daniel Faalele - RT - Minnesota - at 6'9" 400 lbs we will have the biggest set of Tackles in the league. Faalele has only played football for 2 seasons, he's opted out for this past season. He has tremendous upside. He can learn behind Fant for a season and then let him and Edoga duke it out. I could see him going back to school, as of typing this I haven't seen and concrete answer.

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5B) Shi Smith - WR - South Carolina - Jamison Crowder is going into the last year of his deal, Jets would be wise to start grooming his replacement. Smith can play inside and outside and has great hands.

image.thumb.png.86c04f809945e8fb6ed4d803582df2f5.png

6) Riley Patterson - K - Memphis - We need a kicker, he's one of the best according the the sites I pulled up. You can swap him out for any kicker you desire, point is we took a P in the late rounds last season to fill a starter, I could see something similar with K this year.

 

Let's Recap:

Primary Needs

QB✅, WR✅, Edge✅, CB✅, IOL✅, RB✅, K✅

Secondary Needs

TE, LB✅, S, RT✅

 

We can argue about needing 2 Edges or a TE but I'd rather let our 3rd rounder from last year Zuniga get more reps and see if he can turn into anything before investing heavily. As for TE, I wouldn't be upset if we choose to bring in more help but I want to see Herndon in a different offense, to me he has the highest likelihood of breaking out post-Gase. Keep in mind, most contracts start smaller and then balloon to higher numbers, I chose to keep these contracts fully guaranteed for the duration of their deals just for the sake of ease. With this roster we are sitting at 70 players under contract heading into the 2021 season and we'd roll into 2022 with $60M in cap space and 43 players under contract.

(this includes Watson jumping up to $35M in 2022)

Lots of respect for the effort.

GTFO of here with that.

It is hard to describe not only how much I hate that, but how completely opposite it is what JD has said he will do. Compete disaster. WOW

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Agree that aesthetically the post is awesome but the actual content is regrettable.

If JD trades 4 first round picks for Watson I'll start a go fund me - not for a cesna with a banner, but a damn Blimp to park over Met Life with Joe Must Go flashing in neon green.

Hes not doing that..  Allen Robinson isn't getting 20 million a year either.

I look forward to a more realistic mock with Sam being retained and the Jets trading down with ATL or CAR.

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1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

Nice job putting that together but wtf. 4 first round picks?? That would cripple this team. 

I mean, but you're getting a Pro Bowl caliber Franchise QB in his prime. And one of those picks you would be using on a QB (presumably). So thats 3 'extra' first round picks you're giving up- if you think about it. The other thing is, if things went THIS way and Thuney came in and Robinson came in and Sherman came in and the Jets were able to draft Asante Samuel and Trey Smith and a Pass Rusher DESPITE losing 2 first rounders, and still have Seattles first rounder next year- the Jets would NOT be crippled, they would be immediately be a playoff team set up for success for the next 4-5 years.

The point is, the Jets HAVE draft ammo and cap room to make this kind of trade. Should they? Is it better to take the slow route and build through the draft? Maybe. But its much less of a sure thing. Any QB the Jets draft at #2 this year is much much less of a sure thing than Watson and if the Jets punt on a QB this year their is absolutely no guarantee they will be in a position to draft or trade for a legit Franchise QB anytime soon. 

My feeling on the Watson trade is- if you don't think Darnold has a future as the Jets QB, if you're not sold on any rookie QBs at #2 as being Franchise caliber, and if you think Watson can be a legit Franchise QB- you pull the trigger on a trade, even if its 4 first round picks.     

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14 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Lots of respect for the effort.

GTFO of here with that.

It is hard to describe not only how much I hate that, but how completely opposite it is what JD has said he will do. Compete disaster. WOW

I didn't say Douglas would do this. The whole point is that you can build a team around Watson giving up both first rounders. I think most logical fans will agree that trading for Watson is entirely against everything we know about Joe Douglas.

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Personally, I think 4 1st rounders is fair.

It's basically jamal and 2 1st rounders. And I believe that everyone would have made that trade last year without blinking.

I think people are over valuing these picks. there's like a 50% bust rate for 1st rd picks.

So it's safe to assume that we will most likely only hit on 2 of those picks. What are the odds that they end up being as good as Watson?

But how will we build around Watson? Well There's still 6 other rounds in the draft. Darnold gets traded for a pick or 2 also. And there's also this thing called free agency. It's not like you only have Watson for the next 2 years. You have him for the next 15.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Pac said:

Agree that aesthetically the post is awesome but the actual content is regrettable.

If JD trades 4 first round picks for Watson I'll start a go fund me - not for a cesna with a banner, but a damn Blimp to park over Met Life with Joe Must Go flashing in neon green.

Hes not doing that..  Allen Robinson isn't getting 20 million a year either.

I look forward to a more realistic mock with Sam being retained and the Jets trading down with ATL or CAR.

I think the whole forum missed the point haha I think I should just remove the trade and say we lose both firsts this year.  As far as Robinson getting $20M, that part I mentioned in to original post. Doesn't have to be Robinson, would be just as happy with Corey Davis getting significantly less. This was a worst case scenario contract/trade wise to show the Jets DO have the resources to build a complete team even with the Watson trade.

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NUMBER 2 OVERALL IN A DRAFT IS WORTH A LOT.

Quit lumping picks with VASTLY different value as all being the same with 3 or 4 1sts.

If we traded down from #2 overall to the seattle pick #23 we would get 3 firsta and a 2nd probably

If you are giving up #2 overall it is worth at a minimum of two first rounders, maybe three.

So if we are including #2 overall think of it as 2 first rounders. So in this scenario we are giving up 5 first rounders or even if you back it off by one we are giivng up 4 first rounders.

The Jets have almost no talent on this team.  I can see the allure of Deshaun Watson. 

He is not going to fix this team alone.

Josh Allen, Herbert, watson, mahoomes, all guys draftes with one 1st rounder and not top 3 picks.

We finally have assets and what we hope is a good GM.  Build the dam team and then get a QB as you build.

 

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@bla bla bla the Jets do not have to give up 4 first rounders because the second over all pick can be traded for a haul and no one else has that option other than the Jags and no way in hell the Texans are trading with the Jags.

While other teams may want to trade firsts they wont equal the Haul the Jets picks can be worth based on that 2 OA alone.

The Jets should make an offer of This years 1 (23) Next years number 1 and the following years number 1 plus Sam darnold)

If the Texans must have this years number 2OA I would do that plus a 2nd and next years number one and Sam Darnold. This would give them options of drafting a QB to compete with Darnold (Wilson or Fields) or the option to trade out of the pick for a draft pick Haul that will help them rebuild the mess they are currently in. 

Make no mistake, the Texans are in a crappy position due to their own stupidity and IMHO they should also put JJ Watt on the block because there is no reason to ruin his chance at a title and a team might be willing to give you a good amount of picks for him as well. 

All JD has to do is make a good offer like the first one I mentioned and if that's denied you leave it on the table and tell the Texans to call before they pull the trigger on any other deals and they will do that because they know that will include the Number 2 OA anything more than whats laid out above and I would tell them to take a walk then they very well could be ****ed

 

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2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

NUMBER 2 OVERALL IN A DRAFT IS WORTH A LOT.

Quit lumping picks with VASTLY different value as all being the same with 3 or 4 1sts.

If we traded down from #2 overall to the seattle pick #23 we would get 3 firsta and a 2nd probably

If you are giving up #2 overall it is worth at a minimum of two first rounders, maybe three.

So if we are including #2 overall think of it as 2 first rounders. So in this scenario we are giving up 5 first rounders or even if you back it off by one we are giivng up 4 first rounders.

The Jets have almost no talent on this team.  I can see the allure of Deshaun Watson. 

He is not going to fix this team alone.

Josh Allen, Herbert, watson, mahoomes, all guys draftes with one 1st rounder and not top 3 picks.

We finally have assets and what we hope is a good GM.  Build the dam team and then get a QB as you build.

Man I really apologize for writing that one line haha call it #2 and #23, the point is the same. The Jets have plenty of resources to build around Watson - and even more if the roll with Wilson/Fields or Sam. I understand the point you are making about those QBs not being drafted with a top 3 pick but Josh Allen is a bad example. The Bills needed to trade up 2 times in the first to get to pick #7.

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Just now, Smashmouth said:

@bla bla bla the Jets do not have to give up 4 first rounders because the second over all pick can be traded for a haul and no one else has that option other than the Jags and no way in hell the Texans are trading with the Jags.

While other teams may want to trade firsts they wont equal the Haul the Jets picks can be worth based on that 2 OA alone.

The Jets should make an offer of This years 1 (23) Next years number 1 and the following years number 1 plus Sam darnold)

If the Texans must have this years number 2OA I would do that plus a 2nd and next years number one and Sam Darnold. This would give them options of drafting a QB to compete with Darnold (Wilson or Fields) or the option to trade out of the pick for a draft pick Haul that will help them rebuild the mess they are currently in. 

Make no mistake, the Texans are in a crappy position due to their own stupidity and IMHO they should also put JJ Watt on the block because there is no reason to ruin his chance at a title and a team might be willing to give you a good amount of picks for him as well. 

All JD has to do is make a good offer like the first one I mentioned and if that's denied you leave it on the table and tell the Texans to call before they pull the trigger on any other deals and they will do that because they know that will include the Number 2 OA anything more than whats laid out above and I would tell them to take a walk then they very well could be ****ed

I really regret putting in a trade I didn't believe in to prove a point haha everyone is fixated on that and not the sole purpose of the exercise of just not having 2 picks this season.

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42 minutes ago, Mo Lew said:

The people making the decision should have exactly the same viewpoint. 

Shannahan vs Saleh/Lafleur 

I think circumstance plays a part, if the Jets were picking #12 would you expect them to draft a QB or roll with Sam for 1 more season? Just because we want to trade Sam does not mean we don't think he can be a good QB, it could mean we have the #2 pick and want to reset the QB clock for our GM and HC to be on the same page.

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Respect the effort @bla bla bla

What I like:

  • Jones, Gainwell and McGrone seem like scheme fits 
  • I think it's really possible Sherman could sign here

What I don't know

  • Asante Samuel Jr, as I understand it, is best suited for an off-man scheme, not a zone scheme - but that's from what I read online, I won't pretend I know either way, but it's worth bringing to your attention
  • Trey Smith, again as I understand from the interwebz, is predominantly a gap/power blocker without great lateral movement/agility - so might not fit the Shanny wide-zone scheme

My overall critique though, is that this seems more like a Mike Tannenbaum offseason than a Joe Douglas offseason. Forgetting the Watson trade for a second (and the compensation), this seems too all-in on the other free agents.

Signing the top free agent on the market and another top five free agent?

And then back to Deshaun... do you think Joe Douglas is the type of GM to do the most blockbuster trade since Herschel Walker? 

I just don't think that's going to be the JD/Saleh recipe, tbh. 

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15 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I really regret putting in a trade I didn't believe in to prove a point haha everyone is fixated on that and not the sole purpose of the exercise of just not having 2 picks this season.

Hahah I’ve watched @bla bla bla ‘s replies go from—

“well I was just trying illustrate—“,

“ok look maybe I shouldn’t have—“

“I really regret putting that in—“

“I want to die”

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53 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Lots of respect for the effort.

GTFO of here with that.

It is hard to describe not only how much I hate that, but how completely opposite it is what JD has said he will do. Compete disaster. WOW

you do know that you can quote select an area of the text without having the whole frickin’ thing reposted .....right?

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Post like those from @Darnold Schwarzenegger and @PepPep give away just how fan driven their rationale is. There’s no version of reality where Watson is worth 4 first round picks, one of those being #2. It’s excess in utero.

Draw up whatever fcking Dr Seuss value chart you want. It’s clear some of you would just keep going. 5 firsts. 6..

no limit baby  

“bruuuuhhhh top 5 bruh. It’s all a gamble anyway....”

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

It’ll be three ones and change. SOLD

That’s the absolute most you could expect the Jets to realistically pay.

And even then, the Jets have an incredibly valuable asset in the #2 overall pick. They have to look at the QBs in this draft class very carefully. If they really like Fields, Wilson, or Lance, they have to consider taking their guy and building a team from the ground up. 
 

Watson is obviously what we all want because he’s Watson and the Jets are interesting/watchable right away with him, but at 3 1st round picks and change, there is an argument to be made for taking a QB at two instead. 

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