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Deshaunapolooza ****Official Deshaun Watson Speculation Megathread**** (Merged eleventy bajillion times)


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10 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

I think it's just also hard for some to say "lets wait on signing this 100 million dollar contract" when its in front of your face, after working all this time to get to this point.

Agree.  Plus the high risk of injury can kill your chances of getting a huge contract.  

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All that really needs to be said, but thanks for coming to bat for me.

I've changed my profile and cover photos in honor of the man who's about to do so much to change the fortunes of the Jets for the better. 

I've been pretty strong on my thinking that all roads to Deshaun go through the Jets. As you just mentioned the Jets are just in this magical place right now due to Douglas's moves.  1. Most Draf

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22 minutes ago, football guy said:

Deshaun only wants out because the team went 4-12, and the reps of the coaches they spoke to bluntly admitted that Houston was not an attractive job opening because of the state of the franchise. Deshaun wants to be the captain, but he also doesn't want to go down with the sinking ship. If Deshaun's reps had foresight, they would have foreseen that this was an aging roster with an unstable front office, and that a rebuild was inevitable in the near future. They should have advised their client this prior putting pen to paper, not after it all fell apart. 

To be fair, if Watson had known his defense would rank 478 out of 480 teams in over the last 15 years he likely doesn't sign that extension. Or to look at it a different way, Cousins had no injury history, Watson has had 2 torn ACL, take the money and run.

Either way I don't blame Watson for signing an extension given how the NFL handles contracts. Watson's agents protected him by including a no trade clause. Watson can choose to sit out and pay whatever fines, or the Texans can take picks this year to help their new HC.

**Edit - Watson's trade value is at an all-time high right now. If they delay this a year then teams have to struggle with a $35m cap hit instead of a $10m cap hit.

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5 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

If the plan isn't to take a QB then you can trade down from #2 for a haul of picks

#2 >>> #7

Yes you could, assuming you had a trade partner. And that's a huge assumption. But if you're in cap hell and are looking 2-3 years down the road you may sacrifice 5 spots to pick up an extra 1st round pick in 2023. Also, it's much easier to trade down from 7 then it is from 2 due to the cost to your trade partner which makes it less likely you'll have the opportunity to trade the 2nd pick. 

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The only way Houston is going to get fair value is by getting a quality qb in return.

lets say behind the scence, AZ sees kyler Murrays limitations and do not think they can win a super bowl with him.  Maybe they offer kyler murray, a 1st and a 2nd round pick for watson.

Or if they really like Fields or Wilson and feel like they are at a point where they need to rebuild and move on from Watson's contract because they are in cap hell? And and extra couple of 1st rounders (or whatever they can get) would definitely help as well. I mean, fair value is relative. Sure, they will try to repair the relationship, I don't disagree. But sometimes its not so simple. Sometimes things snowball- on both sides. If the owner feels personally offended maybe he DOES become more inclined to trade Watson. If Watson starts looking at the Jets and seeing that Saleh has put together a great coaching staff and JD signs a couple of big name FAs before the draft to show that the Jets will compete sooner rather than later, Thuney, Robinson, who knows. 

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44 minutes ago, long time suffering Jets f said:

No because Watson would never have developed into the QB he is today with the lousy coaching staff and roster we had.

He'd still be a top 10 QB.  

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Begins at 5:55 best one ive heard yet

“if I’m the bears or 49ers I’m calling Texas and offering my first round pick for every year Watson is on my roster after the trade.maybe put a 9 or 10 year limit on it.”

lol wtf ...these guys get paid for these takes

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17 minutes ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

Begins at 5:55 best one ive heard yet

“if I’m the bears or 49ers I’m calling Texas and offering my first round pick for every year Watson is on my roster after the trade.maybe put a 9 or 10 year limit on it.”

lol wtf ...these guys get paid for these takes

That would be amazing! Haha 

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1 hour ago, long time suffering Jets f said:

No because Watson would never have developed into the QB he is today with the lousy coaching staff and roster we had.

Drafting good players doesn't matter. Signing good players doesn't matter. It's all meaningless.

Painting Illustration Of Uli Kunkel The Logjammin Nihilist | Etsy

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Quinnen Williams

Mekhi Becton

and three first rounders outta be enough.

Can't pass up on a HOF QB.

We will have a 1st and a whole bunch of 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounders to build a great team around the QB.

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4 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Quinnen Williams

Mekhi Becton

and three first rounders outta be enough.

Can't pass up on a HOF QB.

We will have a 1st and a whole bunch of 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounders to build a great team around the QB.

This the Macc school of negotiating bidding the price up against yourself, lol?

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40 minutes ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

Begins at 5:55 best one ive heard yet

“if I’m the bears or 49ers I’m calling Texas and offering my first round pick for every year Watson is on my roster after the trade.maybe put a 9 or 10 year limit on it.”

lol wtf ...these guys get paid for these takes

These are the same guys who have been long the US Dollar Index for a while!

:P

 

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45 minutes ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

Begins at 5:55 best one ive heard yet

“if I’m the bears or 49ers I’m calling Texas and offering my first round pick for every year Watson is on my roster after the trade.maybe put a 9 or 10 year limit on it.”

lol wtf ...these guys get paid for these takes

 

Obviously this was a tongue in cheek take.  But it does stress this simple truth:  A young, elite franchise QB is priceless.

Yet some here won't even give up the # 2 pick for Watson.  It's bonkers.  

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12 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Quinnen Williams

Mekhi Becton

and three first rounders outta be enough.

Can't pass up on a HOF QB.

We will have a 1st and a whole bunch of 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounders to build a great team around the QB.

If the Texans are calling the Jets to negotiate we're going to get Watson cheaper than just about any other team out there. Both players mentioned in this post will not be in the deal. Thats not who they will be after. 

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9 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

If the Texans are calling the Jets to negotiate we're going to get Watson cheaper than just about any other team out there. Both players mentioned in this post will not be in the deal. Thats not who they will be after. 

He's faux-pumping the price to convince others Watson is too expensive. "Robby's not worth $18M/yr!"

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23 hours ago, football guy said:

So essentially 4 1st round picks and 2 2nd round picks. 

No thanks. 

Actually if you factor in the actual values of the 2nd pick and Q's value (1st and 2nd at least) this is essentially 7 1sts and 3 2nds. My upper bound is like Seattles  2 first rounders and a second, 2 is off the table.

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2 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

I think it's just also hard for some to say "lets wait on signing this 100 million dollar contract" when its in front of your face, after working all this time to get to this point.

 

2 hours ago, Biggs said:

To be fair to Watson, the team had a 5th year option and could franchise him for 2 years.  It's pretty tough to become an FA out of your rookie deal.  It also comes with substantial financial risk if you get badly hurt. 

Am I supposed to feel sorry for him? He signed the contract... once you sign a 4-year extension and collect on it, you should expect that you're going to be playing there for at least 4-years. See Chicago Bulls/Scottie Pippen... the owner told him if you sign this deal, I expect you to honor this contract. Don't sign the deal if you can't honor it. Besides, there's ways around this: sign a shorter fully guaranteed extension, or don't sign an extension at all if you feel the situation is "so bad" that you can't waste your time there. He made his bed, he should have to sleep in it. 

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1 hour ago, TokyoJetsFan said:

Begins at 5:55 best one ive heard yet

“if I’m the bears or 49ers I’m calling Texas and offering my first round pick for every year Watson is on my roster after the trade.maybe put a 9 or 10 year limit on it.”

lol wtf ...these guys get paid for these takes

“I’d listen to him, he’s pre-med.”😎

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4 minutes ago, football guy said:

 

Am I supposed to feel sorry for him? He signed the contract... once you sign a 4-year extension and collect on it, you should expect that you're going to be playing there for at least 4-years. See Chicago Bulls/Scottie Pippen... the owner told him if you sign this deal, I expect you to honor this contract. Don't sign the deal if you can't honor it. Besides, there's ways around this: sign a shorter fully guaranteed extension, or don't sign an extension at all if you feel the situation is "so bad" that you can't waste your time there. He made his bed, he should have to sleep in it. 

 

Any feedback on the 6 QB's since 1983 who demanded/requested a trade and got their wish?

It sounds nice to say a player should honor his contract and what-not.  Until you realize how easy it is for NFL teams to rip up a current player's deal.  There's no loyalty in this business, and that's a 2-way street.  

Everything the Texans have done to build around Watson has been wrong.  There should be no favoring the Texans side of the argument on this one, by anyone.  The Texans are in the wrong here, not Watson.  

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2 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

To be fair, if Watson had known his defense would rank 478 out of 480 teams in over the last 15 years he likely doesn't sign that extension. Or to look at it a different way, Cousins had no injury history, Watson has had 2 torn ACL, take the money and run.

Either way I don't blame Watson for signing an extension given how the NFL handles contracts. Watson's agents protected him by including a no trade clause. Watson can choose to sit out and pay whatever fines, or the Texans can take picks this year to help their new HC.

**Edit - Watson's trade value is at an all-time high right now. If they delay this a year then teams have to struggle with a $35m cap hit instead of a $10m cap hit.

He definitely should have known (he being his agents). They had the oldest defense in the league, a defense littered with bad contracts. Since he's been drafted, the team has had/will have 1 1st round pick and 3 2nd round picks in 4 drafts (2018-2021), and one of those 2nd round picks was acquired by trading away the team's best WR (and among the best WRs in the NFL). His reps also knew that the team was going to be in cap trouble... when they signed the extension, it wasn't a secret that the cap was going to plummet $20-30 million in 2021 due to the pandemic; they were well aware of that. 

Again, I'm not blaming Watson for signing the contract, I'm just holding him accountable. His agents knew or should have known what they were signing onto, and if they didn't that's negligence on their part. Don't sign a long-term extension and ask to be traded 5 months later because your not satisfied with the team. This isn't a divorce, you can't just get out because your not happy; you were paid money in consideration of the agreement... he made his bed, now he has to sleep in it. 

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Any feedback on the 6 QB's since 1983 who demanded/requested a trade and got their wish?

It sounds nice to say a player should honor his contract and what-not.  Until you realize how easy it is for NFL teams to rip up a current player's deal.  There's no loyalty in this business, and that's a 2-way street.  

Everything the Texans have done to build around Watson has been wrong.  There should be no favoring the Texans side of the argument on this one, by anyone.  The Texans are in the wrong here, not Watson.  

Who were the players? Eli Manning was a coward, John Elway was a coward. But with respect to them, they had zero control where they were going and never even stepped foot in the buildings of the teams that drafted them. They made it clear they were never going to play for those teams. Deshaun established himself with an organization, took the money when he was offered it, now is crying that he needs to be traded. He's being even more cowardice then they were. 

As far as the Texans building around Watson: who is Deshaun to tell the team, a multi-billion dollar organization, how to build around him? If he didn't like their plan to build around him, he shouldn't have signed a long-term agreement. No one put a gun to his head, he signed on himself. 

 

People really don't hold anyone accountable these days... no individuality, no individual responsibility. Not hard to like Watson, want Watson, and acknowledge that the guy signed a contract that pays him over $100 million dollars that he was not forced to sign... yes the Texans are dysfunctional; what does that make Deshaun's advisors for having him sign a long-term agreement? Could've easily signed a 2-year, $70 million extension with no-franchise tag clause, but he didn't go that route. His fault. What am I supposed to feel sorry for him now? Sheesh. 

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2 minutes ago, football guy said:

Who were the players? Eli Manning was a coward, John Elway was a coward. But with respect to them, they had zero control where they were going and never even stepped foot in the buildings of the teams that drafted them. 

I've listed them off for you on 4 occasions now.  In addition to Elway and Eli, the list includes Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer.

And you're being foolish if you think the Stafford-Lions breakup was truly mutual.  That was more Stafford influenced than it was the Lions.  One of the Lions beat writers admitted as much on ESPN Radio the other day.

Meanwhile, can you name one QB who demanded/requested a trade but didn't end up getting moved?

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And no one is asking for you to feel sorry for Watson.  Only to admit that the Texans are far more in the wrong on this one than Watson is.  His reasons for wanting out are more than legitimate.  Suggesting otherwise means you're just not paying attention.

But sure, take the side of the possibly racist billionaire owner, who hired a con man to run his team.  That's a good look!

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2 hours ago, football guy said:

I'm going to keep saying it: Deshaun will not get traded unless the Texans want to trade him. I think they will try to repair the relationship, and they will not trade him just because he wants to be traded. 

I obviously would want Deshaun here if he is made available for a realistic price (3 1st round picks) so in some ways I'm selfishly hoping things go bad, but at the same time I can't get this sour taste out of my mouth... 

The new narrative we're reading yesterday/today is that the issues Deshaun has with the organization run much deeper than who the coaches will be. Which kind of proves what I have felt all along... this was never about all the ancillary issues Deshaun pointed out like social injustice, lack of involvement in the GM search, discord with Easterby and ownership. This is a matter of the captain wanting to abandon a sinking ship. When the coaching search begins, typically the agents of star players vet out other agents to get their perspectives on how coaches viewed the situation. Deshaun, having clearly wanted to be apart of the process, likely did his own background work as well. What it all comes down to is this: his reps miscalculated just how bad Houston was set up to be. Bill O'Brien made disastrously moves that as a result, made it the least desirable coaching opening and an opening prime for a full-on rebuild. This is not something Deshaun wants to be part of. 

If he had such deep issues with the organization, why did he sign a 4-year contract extension? If he was so concerned with ownership, why wouldn't he take the Kirk Cousins/Tom Brady route? Kirk refused to sign a long-term extension with the team. Instead, he played on franchise tags, knowing that either he would ultimately be traded or would walk after the tag was no longer available. Tom Brady took less money in exchange for a provision that stated the Patriots couldn't franchise tag him, knowing in the back of his mind he wanted to leave in the near future. 

If Deshaun wanted a 2-year, fully guaranteed extension he would've gotten it. If Deshaun wanted a clause to eliminate the chance for the Texans to franchise tag him, he probably could've gotten it. But his reps didn't go that route.  Instead, Deshaun's reps got the deal that Deshaun wanted to the deal he wanted. There was very little negotiation on that front and the money was the money. It was "here you go, you're the 2nd highest paid QB in the league and you'll get an opportunity at another contract in your age 30-31 offseason (likely earlier for an extension)." Watson's response to his extension, which was less than 5 months ago: 

What changed? As I pointed out in a few posts, the social injustice stuff had been going on long before he signed the contract. Ownership had been there long before the contract. He knew that the team would target Caserio to be the next GM when his contract tolled. The things that seem to bother Deshaun now (organizational structure, trading DeAndre, etc.) occurred long before the contract, yet he signed it. 

Deshaun only wants out because the team went 4-12, and the reps of the coaches they spoke to bluntly admitted that Houston was not an attractive job opening because of the state of the franchise. Deshaun wants to be the captain, but he also doesn't want to go down with the sinking ship. If Deshaun's reps had foresight, they would have foreseen that this was an aging roster with an unstable front office, and that a rebuild was inevitable in the near future. They should have advised their client this prior putting pen to paper, not after it all fell apart. 

This is what I hate about the new era of athletes. They sign a deal, they're happy about it for a few minutes, and as soon as things don't go according to their expectations they want out. It's a toxic mentality and not a team-oriented mentality. Guys like Brady, Cousins, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, Matt Stafford, even Russell Wilson had dealt with scenarios where they didn't see eye-to-eye with ownership, were displeased what was going on with the state of the franchise or with their contracts, yet they handled it entirely different ways. I really don't like the way Deshaun is handling it, even if I selfishly want it to work. 

Interesting take.  

I felt like yesterday's news pointed more to Deshaun's unhappiness with the organization's off-field issues and Watson is saying its just too little too late.  "What changed?" It may be that either someone is in his ear or he came to the realization that he was given the new contract with the intent of distracting him from these 'other issues'.  Watson was given a large contract so he over-looks the disfunction in the organization and a promise for things to change.  

Since their season ended, the Caserio hiring was sort of the start of it, if I recall correctly.  His tweet "I was on 2 then I took it to 10" was supposedly in response to Caseiro's hiring.  This was after reports that Omar Khan and Louis Riddick were the front-runners for the GM position.  

Also during that time was the search for a new head coach in which Eric Bieniemy was not currently a candidate.  Since Watson's public outcry, there are reports saying the Texans added Eric Bieniemy, Leslie Frazier, and Jim Caldwell to their search.  

Last, the front-runners to where Watson prefers to go, though there is no confirmation on any of this being true, is the Miami Dolphins with head coach Brian Flores and the New York Jets with their new head coach Robert Saleh.  These two destinations may be just being promoted by the media as they could provide the Texans with the most draft capital but the Sherman tweet may have added to validity to the speculation that Watson may be reaching out to other players on their situations.

Both the media and Watson's camp are being careful with the way they handle this story as the NFL and minority hiring has been a very hot topic in recent times.

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And no one is asking for you to feel sorry for Watson.  Only to admit that the Texans are far more in the wrong on this one than Watson is.  His reasons for wanting out are more than legitimate.  Suggesting otherwise means you're just not paying attention.

But sure, take the side of the possibly racist billionaire owner, who hired a con man to run his team.  That's a good look!

Agree 100%, except for the "possibly" part.

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25 minutes ago, football guy said:

 

Am I supposed to feel sorry for him? He signed the contract... once you sign a 4-year extension and collect on it, you should expect that you're going to be playing there for at least 4-years. See Chicago Bulls/Scottie Pippen... the owner told him if you sign this deal, I expect you to honor this contract. Don't sign the deal if you can't honor it. Besides, there's ways around this: sign a shorter fully guaranteed extension, or don't sign an extension at all if you feel the situation is "so bad" that you can't waste your time there. He made his bed, he should have to sleep in it. 

Who said you should feel sorry for him.  I don't.  I also don't pretend that players on a rookie deal who are really good are going to be unrestricted free agents.

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18 minutes ago, football guy said:

He definitely should have known (he being his agents). They had the oldest defense in the league, a defense littered with bad contracts. Since he's been drafted, the team has had/will have 1 1st round pick and 3 2nd round picks in 4 drafts (2018-2021), and one of those 2nd round picks was acquired by trading away the team's best WR (and among the best WRs in the NFL). His reps also knew that the team was going to be in cap trouble... when they signed the extension, it wasn't a secret that the cap was going to plummet $20-30 million in 2021 due to the pandemic; they were well aware of that. 

Again, I'm not blaming Watson for signing the contract, I'm just holding him accountable. His agents knew or should have known what they were signing onto, and if they didn't that's negligence on their part. Don't sign a long-term extension and ask to be traded 5 months later because your not satisfied with the team. This isn't a divorce, you can't just get out because your not happy; you were paid money in consideration of the agreement... he made his bed, now he has to sleep in it. 

I don't disagree, that said if Watson had faith in Bill O'Brien he can use that as the reason he wanted to stay. Now that he is gone the argument can be made that no one else in Houston has allegiance to him. 

You can also argue that by signing the contract Watson gave himself control over where he'd eventually get traded with the no trade clause. This very well could have been premeditated, just like Brown forcing a trade to the Raiders to get out, then orchestrate the whole helmet fiasco just so he could end up with Tom Brady.

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Am I supposed to feel sorry for him? He signed the contract... once you sign a 4-year extension and collect on it, you should expect that you're going to be playing there for at least 4-years. See Chicago Bulls/Scottie Pippen... the owner told him if you sign this deal, I expect you to honor this contract. Don't sign the deal if you can't honor it. Besides, there's ways around this: sign a shorter fully guaranteed extension, or don't sign an extension at all if you feel the situation is "so bad" that you can't waste your time there. He made his bed, he should have to sleep in it. 


True but NFL is a cut throat business. A team will cut you even with a contract. That’s why the signing bonuses are so key. Yeah they take a hit cap wise but the players are are the ones that most of the time never get to honor contract.


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11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And no one is asking for you to feel sorry for Watson.  Only to admit that the Texans are far more in the wrong on this one than Watson is.  His reasons for wanting out are more than legitimate.  Suggesting otherwise means you're just not paying attention.

But sure, take the side of the possibly racist billionaire owner, who hired a con man to run his team.  That's a good look!

To be fair, the owner was already a racist billionaire when Deshaun took the $27M signing bonus.  

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3 minutes ago, King P said:

But I'm sure you had no problem with teams offering players big money and then cutting/trading said players the minute they stop living up to expectations...

They still get paid lol. That's what a contract is for. That's what a negotiation is about. Good agents know what is important to their clients and negotiate to those ends. 

If a player fears of getting cut and wants to protect their long-term future: take less base salary in exchange for more guaranteed money in future years. If a player fears of getting traded, see that a no-trade clause is incorporated in the contract; in return, the team will ask that you take a reduced salary. This is what contract negotiation is all about... 

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People are only seeing this from one perspective: Trading for a 25 year old franchise QB.

But that is NOT the situation.

Houston finished 5-11 WITH Watson.

They are in complete cap HELL.

They have a total of a 2nd round pick in value for the entire draft. Not 1st or 2nd

If they keep Watson, they will actually have less talent than this year as they will have to cut players and have such little prospects in the draft. 

Really at best it is unlikely for Houston to be able to be competitive just from a cap and draft pick standpoint for at least 2 years, possibly 3. Watson knows that.

The only real solution Houston has is to trade Watson for picks and cap relief.

Ideally they need several picks, and a 1st round QB on a rookie contract to have a path to rebuilding within a couple years.

They pretty much HAVE to trade Watson.

Because of all the above, Houston does not really have any leverage top force actual market value for Watson.

People are thinking the Jets are best positioned but the reality is that Houston will get less in terms of picks with the Jets than they might from other mid-range to good teams. Teams like Carolina, New England and San Francisco could realistically trade 3 #1s.

But anyone that thinks that JD will just throw away value to get him is fooling themselves. There are articles on how important draft picks are to JD and how much he values them. The #2 pick has about the same value as 3 1sts from San Fran. Especially since there is Fields and Wilson there both already considered Top 5 picks (and QBs usually rise. I suspect by the end of the process they may be raked 1, 2 and 3)

In the end, Houston will have to take less than full value for Watson. I used to think that they would keep him. But for the reasons above I dont think they can and be competitive. If the Jets were to trade they might trade more 2nd and 3rd round picks than firsts as that arguably helps Houston more.

In the end I expect a thermonuclear meltdown when he goes for 3 1sts or even less to a team like NE or Carolina, and people think we should have just traded #2 and several more ones. I just do not see JD doing that, and Houston IS DEFINITELY leveraged enough where he would not have to.

 

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