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Deshaunapolooza ****Official Deshaun Watson Speculation Megathread**** (Merged eleventy bajillion times)


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All that really needs to be said, but thanks for coming to bat for me.

I've changed my profile and cover photos in honor of the man who's about to do so much to change the fortunes of the Jets for the better. 

What scares me is that Deshaun is gonna read this thread and find out about Staten Island.

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2 hours ago, football guy said:

Joe Montana and Brett Favre were at the end of their careers with 1-year left on their contracts, retiring/unretiring, and the teams wanted to move forward with their young, promising players (Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young, who won an MVP during the 2 years Montana didn't play...). Totally different situations and although the QB wanted to come back and start for their teams, I could understand the team not wanting them to/the player wanting out. 

Yes, Carson Palmer was a coward as well, but at least he was a man of his word. He retired and forfeited his salary instead of playing for the team he felt let him down. He was very transparent about his desire to move on and didn't use excuses and narratives for wanting out (i.e. social injustice, head coach selection, gm selection, etc.). In the end, he retired, and the Bengals traded him when it made sense to. In order to facilitate a trade, he took a pay-cut. 

As far as Jay Cutler, the team tried trading him in a deal to acquire Matt Cassel and he found out about it. In fact, the team wanted to deal him. At that point he asked the team to trade him. He didn't make demands, he didn't turn to the media, he didn't make up reasons for not wanting to be there, and most significantly, he didn't sign an extension 5-months prior then say "I refuse to play here." The team wanted to move on from him. 

 

I'm being foolish? OK pal. Stafford went to the team and proposed a mutual breakup. They convinced him to wait and allow them to discuss it with candidates and let it all play out. In the end, they all agreed. This is also a Stafford who didn't sign a contract 5 months ago... this is also a Stafford who didn't use the media as a means to pull every single excuse out of the bag as to why he didn't want to play for the Lions anymore. He did it professionally, and I won't get into the hypotheticals of what he would've done if the Lions say no. That's not my department. But if he started leaking to the media that he wants out because of X-Y-Z I would say yes he's a coward. He signed a contract; if he asked to be traded and the team said no, either live with it or retire. Period. 

It's very clear-cut for a non-fanatic to see: Deshaun Watson signed his contract 4 months and 20 days ago. If he was displeased he should have not signed. If he wanted to protect himself from being stuck in Houston he could've signed a shorter agreement or none at all. He could've negotiated a no-franchise tag clause among other things. They didn't. Sorry, his agents are being a bunch of cucks. They screwed up, and now they're trying to use different narratives to explain why they want out. In my mind this is no different than Myles Garrett smashing a guy in the head with a helmet and saying "well I did it because of a racial slur he used that no one else heard"... Please. 

If Deshaun gets traded to the Jets for a reasonable amount I'll be thrilled. That said, I don't have to blindly defend the guy. I think what his reps are doing is cowardice and unprofessional. 

 

Excellent post..

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18 minutes ago, nycdan said:

This is the crazy part.  Easterby has absolutely no business being in charge of football anything.  

More is coming out now about how much power he has achieved by being the whisper in owner Cal McNair's ear.

The current and former players seem to all despise him.  And his only experience before becoming head of football operations in HOU was apparently being the team chaplain for the Patriots.  How in the world does that make any sense?

And btw, is this a face you would trust anything to?

easterby_biocard

It’s because the owner can’t operate a team and doesn’t really want to. He got it handed to him after his father passed away and now has no idea how to actually run the thing. Thus letting Esterby run the show because he doesn’t want to. 

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One story I read was something to the effect that with Woody returning he might be willing to make a deal for a star Qb. The article mentioned Brett Favre and how Woody loved to have star power on the team. The problem is if true is he going to force the GM to make a bad trade and overpay like he's done in the past. 

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47 minutes ago, football guy said:

All of this could be true, but ultimately are just assumptions. We have no idea what Watt may or may not have said. I too agree that Watson is a great kid; so is the kid who takes out a $50,000 high interest loan, or the kid who places his trust in the wrong people. Things happen; own it. Deshaun should go ask for a trade citing these issues, or seek to resolve them. Allowing his reps to cry to the media in order to shift public opinion is extremely unprofessional and unwarranted. The organization just made him the 2nd highest paid player in the NFL—asked him what he wanted and gave it to him. 5 months later you’re going to kick them while they’re down and insinuate they’re a bunch of incompetent racists unworthy of you? That’s a low blow and beneath the character of who I thought Deshaun was if you ask me. 

It’s a business and that is a two way street. Owners get away with murder too. Maybe it’s below him but he wants out and he’s allowed to have that opinion. He may have just told his agents to get him out snd so what you need to do to make it happen I don’t know that these specific claims or racism are from him at all. 

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We have a well respected GM, we have  new promising coach both on long term deals.  We have cap room, we have lots of draft assets and as in the past we are looking for a quick fix.

I do not want the Jets to waste, time, resources to chase another teams problem.

Decide if you want to make  pitch for Watson, make them an offer you can live with  an take it or leave it and move on.

I'm sick of being played every year.  We have the hammer, they have a the disgruntled player.

Is he available?  Here is our offer, you have a week to get back to us.

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

That's why it would be so hard for SF to step up to the plate here.  We can give up two firsts that are worth substantially more than their next 3 firsts.  And we'd still have a pick in each 1st round to boot.  HOU is going to have to sort through a lot of scenarios to find the right one but if they are serious about moving Watson, I like our chances a lot.

Really well said Dan. 

As I mentioned the other day whoever is speculating that SF/Carolina or really any team outside of the top 3 picks has a shot in a DRAFT PICK ONLY deal is simply making stuff up. Those teams have NO shot. 

I stated that SF would need to offer 5 First Round picks and it still would not beat the Jets top two picks this year. 

See Below Illustration for what you and I both mentioned. 

The Jets 1.2 plus 1.23 is still more valuable then the Niners First round picks in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 Combined. and thats valuing them as high/middle seconds which may actually be on the high end as teams generally deduct value for offering future picks as opposed to current year picks.

At the end of the Day as I mentioned and you said alot better then me the road to get Deshaun is going through the Jets/Miami. I'd still argue we have a huge edge over Miami though bc the Texans would get their pick at QB though. 

 

 

 

1340790158_ScreenShot2021-01-25at4_30_34PM.thumb.png.691bf5ac4260183b1b4e21dd5cf1f95c.png

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

This is the crazy part.  Easterby has absolutely no business being in charge of football anything.  

More is coming out now about how much power he has achieved by being the whisper in owner Cal McNair's ear.

The current and former players seem to all despise him.  And his only experience before becoming head of football operations in HOU was apparently being the team chaplain for the Patriots.  How in the world does that make any sense?

And btw, is this a face you would trust anything to?

easterby_biocard

I don't think perception meets reality as it pertains to Easterby's role with much of it being sensationalized by the media as if he's some Shakespearean character in a quest for power. What Easterby did is save his job by convincing Cal to hire Caserio - who is among the most respected personnel men in the league - to be the new boss... it was like Adam Gase petitioning to hire Joe Douglas. That didn't make him Joe's boss, but it bought Adam some time and turned out to be a really good hire.

Korn Ferry, the same Korn Ferry that notoriously and disastrously set us up to fail, have a reputation of engaging in favoritism and politics when conducting NFL job searches. That's not to say the Khan-Eberflus tandem would have been bad, but leaving Caserio off the list is pretty insane. 

Easterby, realizing that the best candidate (Caserio) wasn't even on the search firm's list and that he was likely going to lose his job absent a Caserio hire, convinced the owner to hire the guy they were originally planning on hiring in 2019. It's not like Cal didn't know who he was... the team tampered with him.

I'm not trying to defend the Texans; Easterby is an extremely flawed football exec (he doesn't even know football that well) and Cal McNair has already made tons of mistakes since taking over. That being said, Easterby can be a clown and still have been correct in advocating for Caserio. 

Easterby's role is not some football czar. Nick Caserio does not even report to Easterby. It's already been established that it's Caserio's show, and that Easterby serves as what amounts to an advisor/intermediary between the GM and the owner... essentially what our team president does.  

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Watson needs to make a move if he really wants out and here's why.

The Texans words and actions have shown they want to reconcile.  

Watson hasn't officially requested a trade yet, which leaves open the possibility of reconciliation.

If Watson keeps up this strategy, he'll be a Texan in September by default.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Really well said Dan. 

As I mentioned the other day whoever is speculating that SF/Carolina or really any team outside of the top 3 picks has a shot in a DRAFT PICK ONLY deal is simply making stuff up. Those teams have NO shot. 

I stated that SF would need to offer 5 First Round picks and it still would not beat the Jets top two picks this year. 

See Below Illustration for what you and I both mentioned. 

The Jets 1.2 plus 1.23 is still more valuable then the Niners First round picks in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 Combined. and thats valuing them as high/middle seconds which may actually be on the high end as teams generally deduct value for offering future picks as opposed to current year picks.

At the end of the Day as I mentioned and you said alot better then me the road to get Deshaun is going through the Jets/Miami. I'd still argue we have a huge edge over Miami though bc the Texans would get their pick at QB though. 

 

 

 

1340790158_ScreenShot2021-01-25at4_30_34PM.thumb.png.691bf5ac4260183b1b4e21dd5cf1f95c.png

You put 45 in there.  should be 25 right?

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3 minutes ago, dcJet said:

You put 45 in there.  should be 25 right?

No.  He's saying next year's first is roughly worth a mid-2nd this year (since we don't know where they will pick).  You might argue that it should be worth more like a high second, but it's SF and with Watson, they would probably do well and draft very low in the round.  Also, the out years should be progressively less valuable.  Call it all a wash and you aren't terribly far off.  Five 1st round picks sounds good but if all but this one are in the 20s, it isn't really as nice as it sounds.  And there's NO chance a team would trade 5 years of 1st round picks for anyone not named Mahomes.  Watson doesn't come without some small risk (ACL) and could you imagine if he went down in year 1 and you had no 1st round picks for 4 more years?  Nope!

Watson will either be a Texan, Jet or Dolphin next season.  I can't handicap it better than that but I'd be shocked if another team was able to shoehorn their way into the contest unless the Jets and Dolphins both really don't want to play.

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37 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Really well said Dan. 

As I mentioned the other day whoever is speculating that SF/Carolina or really any team outside of the top 3 picks has a shot in a DRAFT PICK ONLY deal is simply making stuff up. Those teams have NO shot. 

I stated that SF would need to offer 5 First Round picks and it still would not beat the Jets top two picks this year. 

See Below Illustration for what you and I both mentioned. 

The Jets 1.2 plus 1.23 is still more valuable then the Niners First round picks in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 Combined. and thats valuing them as high/middle seconds which may actually be on the high end as teams generally deduct value for offering future picks as opposed to current year picks.

At the end of the Day as I mentioned and you said alot better then me the road to get Deshaun is going through the Jets/Miami. I'd still argue we have a huge edge over Miami though bc the Texans would get their pick at QB though. 

 

 

 

1340790158_ScreenShot2021-01-25at4_30_34PM.thumb.png.691bf5ac4260183b1b4e21dd5cf1f95c.png

so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-chance.gif

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12 minutes ago, long time suffering Jets f said:

Ok I’m fairly convinced now Watson will be a Jet when all is said and done. I’ve raised the odds to 70/30. I just hope I don’t get my heart ripped out of me again like when we lost Lawrence.

I think Watson will be a Jet but I'm ready for:

R0nvCH.gif

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3 hours ago, football guy said:

Joe Montana and Brett Favre were at the end of their careers with 1-year left on their contracts, retiring/unretiring, and the teams wanted to move forward with their young, promising players (Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young, who won an MVP during the 2 years Montana didn't play...). Totally different situations and although the QB wanted to come back and start for their teams, I could understand the team not wanting them to/the player wanting out. 

Yes, Carson Palmer was a coward as well, but at least he was a man of his word. He retired and forfeited his salary instead of playing for the team he felt let him down. He was very transparent about his desire to move on and didn't use excuses and narratives for wanting out (i.e. social injustice, head coach selection, gm selection, etc.). In the end, he retired, and the Bengals traded him when it made sense to. In order to facilitate a trade, he took a pay-cut. 

As far as Jay Cutler, the team tried trading him in a deal to acquire Matt Cassel and he found out about it. In fact, the team wanted to deal him. At that point he asked the team to trade him. He didn't make demands, he didn't turn to the media, he didn't make up reasons for not wanting to be there, and most significantly, he didn't sign an extension 5-months prior then say "I refuse to play here." The team wanted to move on from him. 

 

I'm being foolish? OK pal. Stafford went to the team and proposed a mutual breakup. They convinced him to wait and allow them to discuss it with candidates and let it all play out. In the end, they all agreed. This is also a Stafford who didn't sign a contract 5 months ago... this is also a Stafford who didn't use the media as a means to pull every single excuse out of the bag as to why he didn't want to play for the Lions anymore. He did it professionally, and I won't get into the hypotheticals of what he would've done if the Lions say no. That's not my department. But if he started leaking to the media that he wants out because of X-Y-Z I would say yes he's a coward. He signed a contract; if he asked to be traded and the team said no, either live with it or retire. Period. 

It's very clear-cut for a non-fanatic to see: Deshaun Watson signed his contract 4 months and 20 days ago. If he was displeased he should have not signed. If he wanted to protect himself from being stuck in Houston he could've signed a shorter agreement or none at all. He could've negotiated a no-franchise tag clause among other things. They didn't. Sorry, his agents are being a bunch of cucks. They screwed up, and now they're trying to use different narratives to explain why they want out. In my mind this is no different than Myles Garrett smashing a guy in the head with a helmet and saying "well I did it because of a racial slur he used that no one else heard"... Please. 

If Deshaun gets traded to the Jets for a reasonable amount I'll be thrilled. That said, I don't have to blindly defend the guy. I think what his reps are doing is cowardice and unprofessional. 

 

Great post. So hypocritical for people to defend Watson, but rail against Jamal, who was doing the same thing, and still playing on his rookie deal. Watson just signed his extension, for heavens sake.

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2. New York Jets: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State.

 

The prospect of the Jets sticking with Sam Darnold and either picking Penei Sewell here or trading back for more draft picks shouldn’t be ruled out. Nor should the possibility that they use their treasure trove of assets to go and get Deshaun Watson. But for now, picking a quarterback here makes sense, and Fields looks like the better prospect than BYU’s Zach Wilson, even if it’s close.

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There have been 7 trades involving a veteran starting QB in the past decade: 

  • 2002: Drew Bledsoe (Age: 30) - traded after Brady emergence. NE received a 2013 1st round pick. 
  • 2008: Brett Favre (Age: 39) - unretired and traded after team had already committed to Rodgers going forward. GB received a conditional 2009 pick (would've been a 1st had Jets made playoffs). 
  • 2009: Jay Cutler (Age: 26) - tried trading him in a 3-team deal involving Cassel, which infuriated Cutler and ultimately resulted in his trade to Bears. DEN received two 1st round picks, a 3rd round pick, and Kyle Orton. 
  • 2011: Carson Palmer (Age: 32) - traded after vowing to never play for CIN again; retired at age 32 and wasn't traded until 8 games into the season. CIN received a 1st and 2nd round pick. 
  • 2015: Nick Foles (Age: 26) - traded for Sam Bradford and late round picks. 
  • 2015: Sam Bradford (Age: 27) - traded for Nick Foles and late round picks. 
  • 2016: Sam Bradford (Age: 28) - Bradford requested a trade after the team selected Carson Wentz in the draft. He was ultimately dealt ahead of the regular season to Minnesota when Teddy Bridgewater went down with injury. PHI received a 1st and 4th round pick. 

 

Jay Cutler and Deshaun Watson are probably the most analogous. Big differences: (1) Cutler wasn't nearly as touted as Watson; (2) Cutler was on his rookie deal; (3) the new coach/exec wanted to trade him. Is it possible the Texans decide they want to trade Watson in attempt to find a guy that better fits their "culture"? I guess there's a chance. Price? Probably double the draft pick compensation the Broncos received for Cutler. Have to remember, Cal McNair turned over a $27 million signing bonus last year... the organization would want to be compensated for that (since the signing bonus is on their books/new team gets a favorable contract) in addition to fair market value to Deshuan... we're talking at minimum 3-1st round picks, 2-2nd round picks, and I think they would ask for more. 

Matthew Stafford and Carson Palmer are actually very analogous. Matt and Detroit appear to be headed towards a peaceful divorce, but situations are similar: Carson was 32 (same age as Matthew) and was done with the team, but unlike Detroit, Cincinnati was unwilling to move on. Raiders ultimately traded a 1st and 2nd round pick mid-season, which is probably in-line with what the Lions will get for Stafford. The picks OAK sent turned out to be 17th overall in 2012 and 37th in 2013. Stafford is better now than Carson was then, so it wouldn't shock me if they got two 1sts. IND, WAS, DEN, SF, NE all seem to be within the realm of possibility. 

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13 minutes ago, genot said:

Great post. So hypocritical for people to defend Watson, but rail against Jamal, who was doing the same thing, and still playing on his rookie deal. Watson just signed his extension, for heavens sake.

I try to be a fan and not a fanatic. If I were a Nets fan I'd be ecstatic to have James Harden right now, but I'd still acknowledge that he acted like a douche and that I'm not a fan of the standard that has been set

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7 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

2. New York Jets: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State.

The prospect of the Jets sticking with Sam Darnold and either picking Penei Sewell here or trading back for more draft picks shouldn’t be ruled out. Nor should the possibility that they use their treasure trove of assets to go and get Deshaun Watson. But for now, picking a quarterback here makes sense, and Fields looks like the better prospect than BYU’s Zach Wilson, even if it’s close.

A.k.a. "I don't know what they're doing but here's the name of every possible QB the Jets could have next year" 

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It's funny how much of a circus the media has made out of this .   "The damage has been done, Watson will not play for the Texans no matter who they hire"

The truth is, Watson hasn't demanded a trade.  All he's done so far is play around on twitter.

I'll pay attention when he actually demands to be traded.  Until then all it is is noise intended to get hits

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35 minutes ago, genot said:

Great post. So hypocritical for people to defend Watson, but rail against Jamal, who was doing the same thing, and still playing on his rookie deal. Watson just signed his extension, for heavens sake.

Has Watson done an interview where he publicly calls out the GM and HC yet? Watson hasn't actually said anything, it's all speculation and rumor. Adams publicly embarrassed the organization, his teammates and himself. He a POS.

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I think it will be hard for Houston to trade Watson to Miami to get their own pick #3 back.  Plus that pick means they get the 3rd choice of QBs in the draft. If you are going to trade Watson, you at least want to choose his replacement.  If they like one of Fields or Wilson, they have to look at pick #2.    Don't forget, Miami with Watson is likely going to be a good team and will likely have a late first round pick in 2022. The Jets have a longer rebuild and future first round picks are likely to be earlier than Miami's.  The only way I see Miami trading for Watson is if the Texans are in love with TUa and Miami offers a better package (Captain Obvious).  Miami does have an extra 2nd round pick this year, which means they could sweeten the pot some. I think the Jets offer of three firsts (2 from 2021 and 1 from 2022) is better than Miami's three firsts (2 in 2021 and 1 in 2022) and the draft value chart bears that out.  

 

I think the odds are that he stays in Houston though.  

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18 minutes ago, flgreen said:

It's funny how much of a circus the media has made out of this .   "The damage has been done, Watson will not play for the Texans no matter who they hire"

The truth is, Watson hasn't demanded a trade.  All he's done so far is play around on twitter.

I'll pay attention when he actually demands to be traded.  Until then all it is is noise intended to get hits

Gotta make sure his social score is high.

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34 minutes ago, football guy said:

I try to be a fan and not a fanatic. If I were a Nets fan I'd be ecstatic to have James Harden right now, but I'd still acknowledge that he acted like a douche and that I'm not a fan of the standard that has been set

I think the change in culture that Saleh talked about would be put into question, acquiring Watson. That me, me, attitude is at least part of the reason Adams got shipped out. It never can be about one player. I don't care how good he is.

 

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21 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Has Watson done an interview where he publicly calls out the GM and HC yet? Watson hasn't actually said anything, it's all speculation and rumor. Adams publicly embarrassed the organization, his teammates and himself. He a POS.

No Choon. I think it's fairly certain though that the reports about him wanting a say in who would be hired as GM, and HC, are true. The fact that he didn't get his way is leading to all this talk now about him wanting out. The comparison with Adams is the me, me, attitude. 

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25 minutes ago, choon328 said:

Has Watson done an interview where he publicly calls out the GM and HC yet? Watson hasn't actually said anything, it's all speculation and rumor. Adams publicly embarrassed the organization, his teammates and himself. He a POS.

He has had his agent tell Schefter he is never playing a down in Houston again. 
 

People tried to March for him. He said please cancel.

 

Just to make sure Frazier or Bienemy understand that he’s not playing for Houston he had his agent leak he’s not playing for either of them so they don’t take the job.

He’ll be a Jet or Dolphin by the start of FA. 

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