Joe Thomas on QB play in the NFL and it's impact

[Skeet Ulrich]

 

Said by a guy who played the game at the highest level and now commentates.... yet people still seem intent on running things back here with Darnold. It's really astounding logic.

 

[Lupz27]

10 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

 

Said by a guy who played the game at the highest level and now commentates.... yet people still seem intent on running things back here with Darnold. It's really astounding logic.

 

Yeah what does he know about playing with a good QB?  Or hell a good HC?

[Lupz27]

11 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

 

Said by a guy who played the game at the highest level and now commentates.... yet people still seem intent on running things back here with Darnold. It's really astounding logic.

 

There is only like 3 QB’s that do this.  Brady, Mahomes, and Wilson.

[joewilly12]

The QB stirs the drink. 

[Anthony Jet]

1 minute ago, joewilly12 said:

The QB stirs the drink. 

No need stir a beer 

[Beerfish]

Neither QB in that game were at all the reason their teams won.  Brady threw three ints one of them a horrible rookie like one.

It would be fun to see either of those dudes play behind the jets oline the last few years,

If you have a bad coach and bad scheme you have no chance at all

[Prodigal Syndicate]

6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Neither QB in that game were at all the reason their teams won.  Brady threw three ints one of them a horrible rookie like one.

It would be fun to see either of those dudes play behind the jets oline the last few years,

If you have a bad coach and bad scheme you have no chance at all

Neither team is even playing in that game without those QBs.

[docdhc]

21 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

There is only like 3 QB’s that do this.  Brady, Mahomes, and Wilson.

Zach Wilson?

[TexJet]

You realize Tampa Bay has a very good team and skill positions. Brady has been great for them, but this is a very good team surrounding him. 

[Skeet Ulrich]

5 minutes ago, TexJet said:

You realize Tampa Bay has a very good team and skill positions. Brady has been great for them, but this is a very good team surrounding him. 

Kinda Thomas' point if you look at the thread.

Pretty much the same team last year was 7-9 and out of the playoffs with Winston at QB. Now they're NFC champs. The QB matters.

[QB1]

Yea that explains why Watson won 4 games (2 vs Jaguars) 

[Patriot Killa]

Just now, Skeet Ulrich said:

Kinda Thomas' point if you look at the thread.

Pretty much the same team last year was 7-9 and out of the playoffs with Winston at QB. Now they're NFC champs. The QB matters.

But it’s not that cut & dry & every situation isn’t Tampa’s. Just to re-write my response to this tweet in the other thread, Coaches can scheme men open, manufacture easy completions, make reads easier & mask QB’s flaws. Jared Goff is a prime example. Jimmy G is a prime example. Does Kyle Shanahan make Nick Mullens better? Yes. Did Pederson’s RPO offense propel Foles & Philly to a SB? Yes. Did Foles look that good anywhere else outside of the system? No. 

[Skeet Ulrich]

1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

But it’s not that cut & dry & every situation isn’t Tampa’s. Just to re-write my response to this tweet in the other thread, Coaches can scheme men open, manufacture easy completions, make reads easier & mask QB’s flaws. Jared Goff is a prime example. Jimmy G is a prime example. Does Kyle Shanahan make Nick Mullens better? Yes. Did Pederson’s RPO offense propel Foles & Philly to a SB? Yes. Did Foles look that good anywhere else outside of the system? No. 

It works until it doesn't. I think McVay and Shanahan are very good offensive coaches. Do you think it's a coincidence both guys are trying to get rid of Jimmy G/Goff? They understand you can only go so far with a limited QB.

[morny]

1 minute ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

It works until it doesn't. I think McVay and Shanahan are very good offensive coaches. Do you think it's a coincidence both guys are trying to get rid of Jimmy G/Goff? They understand you can only go so far with a limited QB.

This is true, but you can also only go so far with a limited coaching staff (see Stafford/Watson/arguably Rodgers).

Theyre both very important - it’s disingenuous of Thomas to say coaching is only 10% as important as QB play. 

[Patriot Killa]

3 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

It works until it doesn't. I think McVay and Shanahan are very good offensive coaches. Do you think it's a coincidence both guys are trying to get rid of Jimmy G/Goff? They understand you can only go so far with a limited QB.

That’s doesn’t mean coaches are only 1/10th as important because that’s absolutely not true despite how important QB’s are. 

[RutgersJetFan]

Talent matters? What is this nonsense

[FidelioJet]

I love seeing the BB myth dissolving with every Brady win.

[Skeet Ulrich]

2 minutes ago, morny said:

This is true, but you can also only go so far with a limited coaching staff (see Stafford/Watson/arguably Rodgers).

Theyre both very important - it’s disingenuous of Thomas to say coaching is only 10% as important as QB play. 

I think you're blaming things on the HC which lie with the GM/owner.

Texans are a disaster because of BoB the GM(or Easterby, depending on who you ask). BoB the HC was OK.

[FidelioJet]

6 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

It works until it doesn't. I think McVay and Shanahan are very good offensive coaches. Do you think it's a coincidence both guys are trying to get rid of Jimmy G/Goff? They understand you can only go so far with a limited QB.

Which is why, does anyone really thing lifetime football men like Douglas and Saleh are going to really stick with Sam?

 

[Morrissey]

21 minutes ago, TexJet said:

You realize Tampa Bay has a very good team and skill positions. Brady has been great for them, but this is a very good team surrounding him. 

Basically same roster went 7-9 last year 

[Lith]

I think the answer to the question of caoch vs QB hinges on the context of the question.  If I needed to win one game, give me the great QB who can put a team on his back and lead them to victory.  But if I am building a franchise and measuring performance over a number of years, give me the great Head Coach who can develop players and build game plans to maximize their abiltiies.

[RedBeardedSavage]

It’s also true that the two teams headed to the super bowl have the best collection of #weapinz in the league.

[Joe Willie White Shoes]

Brady was not good today. He was handed TDs by bad defense in the first half, tried to give the game away in the second half, was somewhat carried by the defense harassing Rodgers , was helped by  boneheaded coaching by GB, and-as usual-was the beneficiary of multiple bad calls and inconsistent calls by the officials. The Brady ball washing is puke worthy already. ?

[jetscrazey]

Agreed, and they haven’t committed to Sam as the starter next year which is a good sign 

[RJIII]

MAHOMES II is the GOAT, nuff said! 

[PCP63]

Brady didn't go to a terrible team. He went to a team with a great defense, a great OL, the best receiving core in the league, and a great head coach. Then brought in a HOF TE. This season proved nothing. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

That’s doesn’t mean coaches are only 1/10th as important because that’s absolutely not true despite how important QB’s are. 

Agree.

QB is ultra-important. A good HC is also important. But you can’t get just the former and presume you’re home free. 

A QB in the absence of good coaching and a good team around him can still be a loser. 2008-2012 Atlanta won 13 games twice & their worst showing was 9-7. A year later, with the same QB and same HC, they’re 4-12. Fast-forward 3 seasons later and they’re in the SB, with the HC blowing a would-be wrapped up win independent of the QB.

We also saw the Patriots win 11 games with Matt Cassel’s first start at QB since he was in high school. 

What was the difference between the last time the Bucs were in the SB and the year before that? They were a SB team in need of better coaching to show that’s what they were capable of being. On the flip side, absent Russell Wilson being one of the most improbably great QBs of all time, nobody’s crowning Pete Carroll among the 15 best in any given year, let alone among the very best for years on end.

A lot of these and more “Aha, you see?” analysis in hindsight (e.g. 2020 Brady/BB) presume all these other things are equal.

With respect to Thomas, he’s never played for a competent NFL HC worthy of keeping around. Romeo, Mangini, Shurmer, Chudinski, Pettine, H.Jackson. The suggestion that any of them were a good QB away from showing one (or all) were SB HCs in disguise is going to fall on a lot of deaf ears.

[chad2coles]

3 hours ago, QB1 said:

Yea that explains why Watson won 4 games (2 vs Jaguars) 

Watson brought them to the playoffs his first 2 full seasons with literal record setting play. They fired their coach mid season after getting rid of his #1 target and JJ Watt even apologized to Watson for wasting the incredible year he had. 

[CTM]

4 hours ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

 

Said by a guy who played the game at the highest level and now commentates.... yet people still seem intent on running things back here with Darnold. It's really astounding logic.

 

cool but also kinda duhhh

[CTM]

2 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

It’s also true that the two teams headed to the super bowl have the best collection of #weapinz in the league.

WHat about the fact that the 4 teams playing today had the top 4 QB's by DYAR?

[RedBeardedSavage]

42 minutes ago, CTM said:

WHat about the fact that the 4 teams playing today had the top 4 QB's by DYAR?

I had to google what DYAR was. Appreciate you opening that door for me. For any others interested (but you can ignore):

Quote

DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. A Football Outsiders stat which compares the performance of each player, in terms of DVOA, to a replacement-level baseline rather than the league average for that position, then translates that total into yardage. Because DYAR is a total stat, not a rate stat, it helps show the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players. DYAR replaced DPAR as our method for measuring individual players with the publication of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 in July 2008. The method and the computation of replacement level are discussed further here.

But here... 

Quote

Unfortunately, when it comes to individual player ratings, we are still far from the point at which we can determine the value of a player independent from the performance of his teammates. That means that when we say, "In 2014, Marshawn Lynch had a DVOA of 23.1%, what we are really saying is “In 2014, Marshawn Lynch, playing in Darrell Bevell’s offensive system with the Seattle offensive line blocking for him and Russell Wilson selling the keeper when necessary, had a DVOA of 23.1%."

But that might just be for DVOA?

How about DYAR:

Quote

Passing statistics include sacks as well as fumbles on aborted snaps. Receiving statistics include all passes intended for the receiver in question, including those that are incomplete or intercepted. At some point, we hope to be able to determine just how much impact different receivers have on completes vs. incomplete passes, but various regression analyses make it clear that both quarterback and receiver have an impact on whether a pass is complete or not. The word passes refers to both complete and incomplete pass attempts.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dyar

• under the sub-header 'ISSUES WITH DVOA/DYAR'

From my layman "I like to watch the footballs on Sunday" point of view , elite quarterback play is the best way to be competitive deep into the playoffs.

But it's also no coincidence that Josh Allen took a serious jump this year by adding Stefon Diggs, who was All Pro this year.  

Good to note that Davante Adams, Corey Linsley and David Bakhtiari (definitely butchered his name) are All Pro this year. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are All Pro this year as well. 

And I think it's fair to say, without citing statistics or plotting regressions - just going on the eyeball test, that Tampa is at least top three with their collection of #weapinz this past season.

So without taking away from the greatness of those quarterbacks, I think what football outsiders is also arguing is that we do not have the ability, statistically, to truly measure the impact of said #weapinz on quarterback performance. 

For me, I like to keep it simple: Brady is aging, but GOAT + loaded offense. Mahomes is a superstar, throwing regularly to two other superstars, combined with a strong supporting cast and a truly excellent offensive mind scheming up shenanigans every week. 

If I were a roster builder, I'm not quite sure I could emulate either one of those recipes. It's probably not worth trying without Brady or Mahomes.

I'd be looking to the 49ers last year and the Eagles the year before for more 'inspiration', or something to emulate. 

[LIJetsFan]

"The difference between the best coach and the worst coach in the NFL is small;"

Sorry but I don't care who says this...I'll never believe it.  People lose credibility when they say things off the top of their head like this.  (IMHO)    

[CTM]

5 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

So without taking away from the greatness of those quarterbacks, I think what football outsiders is also arguing is that we do not have the ability, statistically, to truly measure the impact of said #weapinz on quarterback performance. 

I think you are over complicating this unnecesarily. Yes it's very difficult to parse out player from teammates, and yea a great WR helps (like when Moss was added to NE in 2007) but sometimes the obvious is just staring you in the face

NE offense dvoa fell from #11 to #23 swapping Brady for Cam (the 2 years prior they were 5 and #1)

TB increased from #23 to #3

In both instances by far the most signficant change was Brady. The QB makes the whole thing work and is by far the most important position in football player or staff

[Jetster]

Jets might be picking at #2 & #4 if Russell Wilson got hurt this year. He carried that team on his freaking back! 

1/10th? Stupid comment but yea, a franchise QB helps tremendously. That & like others have said drafting well to complete a team. I don't care what anyone says, you take Tyreek Hill off the field & Mahomes doesn't operate a easy. And Kelce is a beast! When Mahomes wins Super Bowls WITHOUT these guys, like Brady has (won a Super Bowl without Gronk), let's talk about the GOAT. 

[Biggs]

Lombardi, Stram and Walsh invented new ways for elite QB's to attack defenses.   Coaching isn't just about teaching, development and scheme.  There have been several moments in NFL history where NFL coaches have completely changed the way the game is played.  There have been players like Lawrence Taylor and Deon Sanders who have completely nullified elite QB's.