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Update: Mel Kipers 2021 Mock Draft 1.0 - DeVonte Smith


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I would be absolutely stunned if the Jets stayed at #2 they picked a WR.

Kiper needs to find a dementia specialist.

@LAD_Brooklyn Appreciate you posting the whole thing. As for the mock itself, if we couldn't trade down, and this was the board, I'd prefer: Penei Sewell @ 2 Terrace Marshall

21 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i could really see this, and i think ultimately, atlanta is a great trading partner b/c it allows the jets to get the non qb they want and still get extra draft capital.  add pitts and samuel, the offense is really revamped quickly.  as for darnold, yeah, i think you'll get better stats and more ws but i think what will happen is that he'll be turned into a glorified game manager where they won't ask him to do too much, aka, won't let him lose the games.  

If i had to speculate (and some won't agree), i would assume that JD & Rob feel like at worst, Sam can help them gauge how much more work the roster needs by the way things go in 2021. At best, the system elevates him to capable the way Goff played initially or Garapollo. 

I don't think for a second that "Find our Franchise QB" isn't on their list -- I just think they feel there's a lot of moving parts right now, and you need to start nailing them down if you want have a clear picture about who's gonna be able to be that guy. 

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1 minute ago, Paradis said:

If i had to speculate (and some won't agree), i would assume that JD & Rob feel like at worst, Sam can help them gauge how much more work the roster needs by the way things go in 2021. At best, the system elevates him to capable the way Goff played initially or Garapollo. 

I don't think for a second that "Find our Franchise QB" isn't on their list -- I just think they feel there's a lot of moving parts right now, and you need to start nailing them down if you want have a clear picture about who's gonna be able to be that guy. 

increasingly i agree with this.  from the douglas/saleh perspective, maybe the 'best case' is darnold morphs into the goff/garapolo type qb who will play decent and help you win games if he doesn't turn it over.  all the while they'll build up the roster so if they have to switch up qbs in 2022 they're far along with the rebuild.  if they go this route i would expect a modest trade down, with chase or pitts as the pick to inject the offense with the #1 threat.  then if they sign a wr in fa the weapons have really been upgraded and that's before they address rb.  

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So much here, i will go the simple route, as much as i think Jeremiah is the best of draft analysts, Kiper is definitely last, appears he has just gotten lazy over the years, and just mails it in. I am 100 percent certain, top of draft will not look like this..

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18 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

 if they go this route i would expect a modest trade down

everyone expects a trade down 

the real question is what happens when that doesn't materialize

it costs a ton to get to 2, which limits what kind of market there really is

it's like trying to sell a 10 million dollar house in the hollywood hills, someone very particular buys that house and they don't sell in 1 day on the market or whatever 

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i don't know about smith with the two pick.  sure the guy is a ball magnet but his small frame is just scary.  it's not like when they went with keyshawn back in 95.  keyshawn was a pretty big receiver.

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6 minutes ago, MichaelScott said:

Right now I think I would rather Harris with that 2nd pick... 

Also, Heisman or not, I'm not sure how I feel about a WR that physically makes Robby Anderson look like Metcalf 😳

I love Harris, but would certainly rather Horn. Going by the results, Etienne would be there in the 2nd round for us.

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

everyone expects a trade down 

the real question is what happens when that doesn't materialize

it costs a ton to get to 2, which limits what kind of market there really is

it's like trying to sell a 10 million dollar house in the hollywood hills, someone very particular buys that house and they don't sell in 1 day on the market or whatever 

This sounds like a good argument for including the #2 in a trade for Deshaun Watson.

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Smith's reps must have bought Mel a nice steak dinner (if you know what I mean).

If the Jets pick at #2, which I doubt will happen, it will be a QB and maybe an O lineman. JD already showed us how he likes talent to fall to him. He is not picking a WR when there is not a ton of difference between the top 3 to 5 players available at that position. 

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

If i had to speculate (and some won't agree), i would assume that JD & Rob feel like at worst, Sam can help them gauge how much more work the roster needs by the way things go in 2021. At best, the system elevates him to capable the way Goff played initially or Garapollo. 

I don't think for a second that "Find our Franchise QB" isn't on their list -- I just think they feel there's a lot of moving parts right now, and you need to start nailing them down if you want have a clear picture about who's gonna be able to be that guy. 

I also think given the risk/reward of taking a guy at 2 overall and the recent history of quarterbacks drafted at the very top of the first round (say top 5) versus a few picks later, the sweet spot for Douglas is probably taking a position player earlier and a QB later - even if it means moving up from Seattle’s pick. That was also Ozzie Newsome’s MO.

I think it’s a safer a spot to take your swing but not necessarily need to hit on a guy, and there’s risk at that position all over the first round. We always perceive that you need to take that QB at the top of the first round and basically none of the current superstars at the position were taken in the top five. Plus you’re likely able to help that supporting cast.

And I think Douglas would rather be sneaky. Play up the Darnold narrative forever, don’t take one at two or with the first pick if they move down - then snap a guy up if he falls.

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5 hours ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

I love Harris, but would certainly rather Horn. Going by the results, Etienne would be there in the 2nd round for us.

I'm not a college football guru whatsoever, I don't know much about the prospects until this time of year where I start looking into players the Jets might be interested in. Harris caught my eye in a couple games and I love the idea of having a bruising workhorse, 3 down back. I miss the Thomas Jones days of having a top running game. Just look what we were able to accomplish back then when we had a running game like that to rely on. I honestly don't think Mark Sanchez would have looked much better on this team than Sam has. 

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If we don’t get Watson and don’t want to draft a QB, I don’t even know who I’d want at 2. Pretty bad spot if we can’t trade down. Luckily a team always falls in love with a QB though so I think we’d be ok moving out 

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6 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

The fact Mel Kiper has a job doing the same thing we do in this forum everyday is kinda annoying.  Dude sucks. 

We' re all doing this on this forum because of Mel Kiper. Give credit when it's do. He's the father of the mock draft and public discussion on college olayers draftable skills.

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6 hours ago, Paradis said:

If i had to speculate (and some won't agree), i would assume that JD & Rob feel like at worst, Sam can help them gauge how much more work the roster needs by the way things go in 2021. At best, the system elevates him to capable the way Goff played initially or Garapollo. 

I don't think for a second that "Find our Franchise QB" isn't on their list -- I just think they feel there's a lot of moving parts right now, and you need to start nailing them down if you want have a clear picture about who's gonna be able to be that guy. 

I agree with this 110%. I have nothing concrete to base it on, obv I'm not in on the GM/HC convos, but my gut feeling is that you're completely right. As fans we tend to obsess over the QB position and I tend to think that JD and Saleh are focusing more on the whole team and understand that most QBs aren't going to be able to play to their potential with this team. 

We want the QB position fixed yesterday. I think JD/RS are well aware QB is a question mark but my guess is that, absent of being in love with a prospect in this draft, they are probably okay giving Sam one more cheap year to see if the new staff can work with him. 

I've pretty much moved on from Sam also but I have to admit, part of me is more than a little interested/curious to see what Sam looks like with a capable coaching staff. Hell if they keep Sam I'd love to seem them get McCown in here as an asst QB coach. Sam's best production was under Bowels with McCown mentoring him. 

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25 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

The fact Mel Kiper has a job doing the same thing we do in this forum everyday is kinda annoying.  Dude sucks. 

Mel mades $400k a year doing this. He's just adding on to his coins at this point cause he no longer has any connections. FBI needs to charge him with grand larceny.

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7 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

increasingly i agree with this.  from the douglas/saleh perspective, maybe the 'best case' is darnold morphs into the goff/garapolo type qb who will play decent and help you win games if he doesn't turn it over.  all the while they'll build up the roster so if they have to switch up qbs in 2022 they're far along with the rebuild.  if they go this route i would expect a modest trade down, with chase or pitts as the pick to inject the offense with the #1 threat.  then if they sign a wr in fa the weapons have really been upgraded and that's before they address rb.  

You make it sound so easy. Who exactly are you pluck out of the air, stick in the huddle and excell?

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8 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

I won’t be surprised by a DE or CB pick in round 1 if the board falls that way.

They’re premium picks and also a need, although Bless  and Hall fit the new system perfectly. 
 

 

I’m puking my guts out at the thought of a 90lb receiver in the top three tho.

If we go receiver trade back a few spots and grab Chase or Smith. Allen was pretty average last year in the pass game until the Bills got Diggs. If we keep Sam we absolutely need to draft a #1 because the top free agents won’t sign with the Jets. Sign a #1 corner in FA.

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8 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

yeah but kiper doesn't project trades, so what he's saying is that the jets won't go qb there.   but if they don't they're trading out, so the question becomes how far back are they trading and which wr are they taking?  b/c i think we'd be pretty pissed off if the jets traded back and took a defensive player

The more I read about Smith,  the more I like him as a top 5 pick. I mean 23 TDs and 1856 yards and a 15+ average. How can this not work out?

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2 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

The more I read about Smith,  the more I like him as a top 5 pick. I mean 23 TDs and 1856 yards and a 15+ average. How can this not work out?

Agree seems like a sure thing. 

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9 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

@LAD_Brooklyn

Appreciate you posting the whole thing.

As for the mock itself, if we couldn't trade down, and this was the board, I'd prefer:

  • Penei Sewell @ 2
  • Terrace Marshall Jr @ 23

 

I agree with this. Football games are won in the trenches.

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9 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

I'm ok with this pick but I don't see JD staying at #2 if we make a move for a Qb like Mullens in FA. 

Sam, Morgan & Mullens have open competition, #2 pick is traded and we end up drafting Parsons or Surtain in the 7-12 range.

 

And by the way.... Najee Harris on Buffalo scares the sh*t out of me!!

@Greensleeves. What exactly was the down vote for?

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28 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

The more I read about Smith,  the more I like him as a top 5 pick. I mean 23 TDs and 1856 yards and a 15+ average. How can this not work out?

Better keep him in motion.

Might not get off the line of scrimmage in press coverage. 

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A WR and a CB in round 1 would infuriate me.  We don't need another season to see about Darnold.  We need a QB.  Draft one or trade for one.  Don't waste another year hoping that Darnold miraculously turns it around.  Slightly improving the personnel isn't the magic potion for Darnold.  His stats and more importantly, his game film, over three years tells us all we need to know.  Time to move on.

QB and RB in round 1 is what I'm hoping for.  This is an offense driven league.  If you don't have your QB, keep swinging until you find one. Passing on a blue chip QB at #2 would be a massive mistake.

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9 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

yeah but kiper doesn't project trades, so what he's saying is that the jets won't go qb there.   but if they don't they're trading out, so the question becomes how far back are they trading and which wr are they taking?  b/c i think we'd be pretty pissed off if the jets traded back and took a defensive player

Apparently he doesn't project anything other than a team using the draft for it's immediate starter needs, and projects that such teams leave those holes for the draft. Not even a team that'll be north of $80MM under the salary cap. 

We'll just let our current FAs go to other teams, sign nobody ourselves, fill all our holes in the draft, be $150MM under the cap next year, and will then do the same thing again. Because that's what every team does.

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If we are not in love with a QB we have to find a away to trade down.  We should still be able to get a weapon player and other assets, or even an oline if we wish, or pass rusher.

I call for trade downs every year almost but this year i really mean it!  😎

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