Update: Mel Kipers 2021 Mock Draft 1.0 - DeVonte Smith

[More Cowbell]

37 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Better keep him in motion.

Might not get off the line of scrimmage in press coverage. 

He can probably put 10 lbs on and that won't  be a problem.

[Lupz27]

So 2 defensive players in the top 10 interesting. 

[RVAJet815]

Didn’t realize Kiper was the “Long time listener, first time caller” type. Surprised he didn’t give us Mac Jones at 23 just to be extra edgy ?

[32EBoozer]

9 hours ago, Barkus said:

3 wr in the top 6?!?! Sounds crazy to me. 

https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/01/25/2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-trades-galore-jets-add-core-building-block/

In this scenario, Miami is the big winner trading out two times

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson | QB, BYU

Regardless of whether the pick is Zach Wilson or Ohio State product Justin Fields, the New York Jets have to take a chance at QB here. Throughout his rookie season, Sam Darnold showed signs of progress from a mechanical and mental processing standpoint, but he severely regressed over the next two seasons. His tenure in New York will forever be defined as one that had special potential but was mired by far too many mistakes.

I have the Jets selecting Wilson instead of once-clear No. 2 QB Fields. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Wilson has the No. 1 ranked passing grade (95.5) and No. 2 offensive grade (95.4) out of all graded college football QBs. Wilson’s potential in arm talent and ball placement is just too great to pass on. With a little bit of refining in footwork and mental processing, Zach can be a force in this league for many years to come. I explored his 2020 All-22 film against Western Kentucky which presented why his extreme rise on the draft board is warranted.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (from Houston via Miami*): Penei Sewell | OT, Oregon

*The Bengals trade their No. 5 overall pick, 2021 third-round pick and 2022 second-round pick to the Dolphins in return for the No. 3 overall pick (originally Houston’s).

After falling from No. 3 to No. 5 with two wins over the final three weeks of the season, the Bengals trade with the Dolphins to secure the best tackle prospect in the draft. Penei Sewell is in a league of his own in regard to physical toughness and agility. He has a strong chance of translating very nicely to the NFL level. Sewell had the best PFF offensive grade (95.8) out of all offensive linemen in 2019. In addition, Penei ranked No. 5 in PFF’s pass protection grade (91.1) and No. 1 in PFF’s run-blocking grade (95.7).

With QB Joe Burrow recovering from a torn ACL, the No. 1 priority in Cincinnati remains to build an offensive line around the face of the franchise. Just like any other team, offensive success starts in the trenches and Penei can be the start of that foundation for the Bengals. I covered Sewell’s 2019 season with All-22 angles, highlighting why he is one of the most revered offensive line prospects in recent memory.

 

 

4. Carolina Panthers (via Atlanta Falcons*): Justin Fields | QB, Ohio State

*The Panthers trade their No. 8 overall pick, 2021 second-round pick, 2021 fourth-round pick, and 2022 first-round pick for the No. 4 overall pick and a 2022 fifth-round pick.

Giving up most of their 2021 draft ammunition, the Panthers secure a franchise QB in Justin Fields. Positioned at the No. 8 pick, the Panthers decide not to chance missing out on one of the best QBs in the class. Fields has the third-highest PFF career grade (92.0) among draft-eligible QBs and had the best accurate-pass percentage in 2020 (72%).

Carolina will keep offensive coordinator Joe Brady for at least one more season which gives Fields the opportunity to develop under one of the game’s best offensive minds. Already equipped with talented playmakers around him, Justin has the chance to thrive in his rookie year if he wins the starting job.

To get a peek into his elite upside, I dove into Fields’ first season with the Buckeyes as well as his 2021 College Football Playoff semifinal performance against Clemsonusing All-22 angles.

5. Miami Dolphins (via Bengals*): Ja’Marr Chase | WR, LSU

*The Dolphins trade their No. 3 overall pick to the Bengals in return for the No. 5 overall pick, a 2021 third-round pick, and a 2022 second-round pick.

Miami gets the wide receiver they were targeting at No. 3 while securing extra draft capital.

One of the reasons behind QB Tua Tagovailoa‘s rookie struggles was the lack of talented deep-threat WRs, which presented more of a horizontal-based offense. Grabbing the No. 1 WR in the draft will give Tua and a new offensive coordinator more opportunities to drive the ball downfield.

A 2020 opt-out, Chase remains an elite prospect on the basis of his outstanding 2019 season. According to PFF, Ja’Marr’s 2019 total of 46 catches that went for 15 yards or more is the most in a single season by any college player since 2014. In 2019, Chase had the fifth-best PFF offensive grade (91.1) out of all graded WRs in the nation.

Miami’s offense is immediately upgraded with this selection. I took a look at Chase’s 2019 film to dig into his unique strengths and also a few weaknesses that can be ironed out.

[sirlancemehlot]

11 hours ago, Paradis said:

I want to draft that eagle landed on his head.

[RSJ]

I would like Smith, Chase or Pitts with the pick. So to me this is a good mock.


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[RSJ]

I won’t be surprised by a DE or CB pick in round 1 if the board falls that way.
They’re premium picks and also a need, although Bless  and Hall fit the new system perfectly. 
 
 
I’m puking my guts out at the thought of a 90lb receiver in the top three tho.

Yeah Smiths size definitely makes me nervous but if you think he is a game changer and you both shore up thongs in free agency and stick with Darnold then the pick makes sense


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[Jetster]

Saleh comes from the 49ers, if it's WR it's CHASE all the way! 200 Lbs! A better Deebo Samuel. Personally, I would never take a WR over a stud Olineman like Pennei Sewell when I also have picks #23 & #34! Those picks are the sweet spot for studs that drop. Plus, Joe Douglas proved last year that he believes that's where you trade back & build. 

He could move back & still land a Terrance Marshall. The Jets are getting a free agent WR! Don't know who it is yet, but with one big free agent veteran WR, Mims in his 2nd year & full camp & preseason + Crowder, why in the world would you pick a WR at #2 overall? Absolutely crazy & won't happen.

[JetsFanatic]

Hard to do a mock this early, long way to go prior to the draft.

[Greensleeves]

15 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

@Greensleeves. What exactly was the down vote for?

Sorry - absolutely hate going D with our first, first round pick. If we trade back we'll be in the Smith, Chase, Pitts conversation. Our D will be fine with some free agents signed, Mosely, and later picks. Offense wins in this NFL - I wouldn't hate going CB with the second pick or a 2nd rounder. It also means we are keeping Sam and he must have a dynamic #1 receiver and I don't see any big name free agent wideouts signing with us if Sam is the QB. If Watson is QB they will come and I would reevaluate the pick. FA pass rushers will be available too.

[FidelioJet]

23 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

increasingly i agree with this.  from the douglas/saleh perspective, maybe the 'best case' is darnold morphs into the goff/garapolo type qb who will play decent and help you win games if he doesn't turn it over.  all the while they'll build up the roster so if they have to switch up qbs in 2022 they're far along with the rebuild.  if they go this route i would expect a modest trade down, with chase or pitts as the pick to inject the offense with the #1 threat.  then if they sign a wr in fa the weapons have really been upgraded and that's before they address rb.  

Then they have to bring in a rookie QB next year with the new found talent and basically set the team back another year.

It makes no sense.  They're taking a QB at 2.  Next year starts the one-year rebuild - 2022 is the year we go to the playoffs, but can't do it with a rookie.

Taking a QB at 2 is really the only logical option.

[32EBoozer]

14 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

Sorry - absolutely hate going D with our first, first round pick. If we trade back we'll be in the Smith, Chase, Pitts conversation. Our D will be fine with some free agents signed, Mosely, and later picks. Offense wins in this NFL - I wouldn't hate going CB with the second pick or a 2nd rounder. It also means we are keeping Sam and he must have a dynamic #1 receiver and I don't see any big name free agent wideouts signing with us if Sam is the QB. If Watson is QB they will come and I would reevaluate the pick. FA pass rushers will be available too.

That's fine.... I was just thinking that if we are trading out of the #2 spot, that means we are not going QB. I would love Ja'maar Chase in the 7-12 range but I don't believe he will be there. D. Smith & Waddle worry me due to their size. The TE Pitts might be a good selection there but the "D" needs two things.... Edge and CB. If Sam is our QB this year you need to get him a veteran WR like Robinson. I don't see a rookie being of much help to make Sam better. OL would be better investment for Sam's development but you can get those players in rd. 2-4.

[Greensleeves]

2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

That's fine.... I was just thinking that if we are trading out of the #2 spot, that means we are not going QB. I would love Ja'maar Chase in the 7-12 range but I don't believe he will be there. D. Smith & Waddle worry me due to their size. The TE Pitts might be a good selection there but the "D" needs two things.... Edge and CB. If Sam is our QB this year you need to get him a veteran WR like Robinson. I don't see a rookie being of much help to make Sam better. OL would be better investment for Sam's development but you can get those players in rd. 2-4.

I was too harsh before - took off the thumbs down.  

[32EBoozer]

6 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

I was too harsh before - took off the thumbs down.  

I don’t mind a down vote, it’s just nice to understand what someone took issue with. Thanks for the feedback 

[NYJ1]

I'm sort of torn between two needs. If the Jets don't trade for Watson, there's a very good chance JD's pick would be Devonta Smith. However, I also very much think he wants to fix the OL, once and for all. Specifically, at #2 the pick has to be Sewell or Smith. If they trade down, depending on how far, I still believe either of those would very much be in play. Smith is too good to simply pass over. My belief is any trade down JD executes wouldn't be so far that he couldn't get one of those two.

[JetBlue]

On 1/26/2021 at 11:58 AM, 32EBoozer said:

I'm not sure Smith fits the model of a Shanahan type receiver. He is not a physical dude. 

 

I'm ok with this pick but I don't see JD staying at #2 if we make a move for a Qb like Mullens in FA. 

Sam, Morgan & Mullens have open competition, #2 pick is traded and we end up drafting Parsons or Surtain in the 7-12 range.

 

And by the way.... Najee Harris on Buffalo scares the sh*t out of me!!

NO Fing way. if we do that, the pick HAS to be PITTS.  

[Jethead]

20 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

The more I read about Smith,  the more I like him as a top 5 pick. I mean 23 TDs and 1856 yards and a 15+ average. How can this not work out?

Johnny Lam Jones says hello

[HessStation]

If they don’t take a QB they better be trading down 

[PepPep]

You take a QB. And that is what the Jets will do.

You look at Darnold's stats, you look at his regression, the way he has played and his contract and there is no way you can rely on him going forward as your QB- even if you decide to keep him around for another year and not take a low ball trade offer like a 4th or 5th round pick. But Darnold's future with the Jets is pretty much done. 

The only way the Jets go in a different direction (trade down or Sewell or whatever) is if they are absolutely positively uninterested in any QBs in this draft as potential Franchise guys. And I don't see that. To me, between Fields, Wilson, and Lance there is at least one stud QB but all could be really good at the NFL level if they stay healthy and are given a decent environment to develop.