2021 NY JETS/NFL FREE AGENCY DRAFT TRADES RUMORS HAPPENINGS ***

[Jetlife33]

 

[football guy]

3 hours ago, Jetlife33 said:

 

*If* the Texans traded Watson, Carolina is the team. They will outbid everyone (will go 4-first round picks), they will offer starters/recent high draft picks, and for HOU they get Deshaun out of the conference and can spend the next few years blowing it up/rebuilding the entire roster. 

I know people think “well the Jets have the 2nd pick... it’s so much more valueable!” 

For one, Houston knows they have a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, and given the state of the roster, drafting a QB can backfire horribly (see Darnold, Carr). Secondly, Caserio wants to build around the QB, not necessarily through; if they keep Deshaun the intent is obviously to build around him, but if they lose him I don’t think his roster building strategy changes—he’ll seek to build around the position before investing high draft capital/money in a new QB.  

[section314]

Question for our insiders, @Mogglezand @football guy.......Can you guys ask your sources if James Morgan is more in the plans going forward than anyone is aware of? They spent a pretty high pick on this guy, he has all the tools, and it's like they kept him in the witness protection program. I smell a rat. We spend time talking about resigning 12th string WR's, kickers, etc and there is never a mention of the only QB  JD picked. It's just bizarre.The old dolt of a coach may not have liked Morgan, but he's not the guy who picked him.Please help.   Signed......Ira from Staten Island.?

[JohnnyLV]

2 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Imo this is why Watson is the safer option if we can get him for 3 1st or something like that. 
 

And Darnold couldn’t hold Wilson or Fields jockstrap imo 
 

Darnold isn’t a opinion at all as a New York jet bro he’s the worst QB in the NFL, we can and will do better 

#2 IS three mid round firsts. 

[Mogglez]

3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

If so, do you think they still feel confident they can trade him for reasonable draft picks, and if so, when would that occur - after all the qb pro days?

Tough to say.  With the current market, I’d say it’s more likely that it happens after the pro days, since the leverage has changed with some of these teams signing vets.

I’d watch Denver, but that’s a gut thing.

[Wonderboy]

15 minutes ago, bitonti said:

a gentleman never asks and a lady never tells 

A scholar and a gentleman 

[JohnnyLV]

2 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Seriously, I can’t imagine anyone who’s watched Nix play, can come away thinking he’s an NFL QB.  

Spencer Rattler can throw it ok, but if you think Zach Wilson is skinny wait till you see Rattler.  Kid is probably 190 pounds soaking wet.  

Why don't people think Lawrence is skinny?. He is 3" taller than Wilson and the same weight. Must be the hair, no one sees any fault in Trevor other than Simms. Funny thing is I think there is at least a 25% chance we wind up with Lawrence.

[Wonderboy]

1 minute ago, johnnysd said:

#2 IS three mid round firsts. 

Exactly. The #2 is GOLD not FAKE GOLD.

[kdels62]

1 minute ago, football guy said:

*If* the Texans traded Watson, Carolina is the team. They will outbid everyone (will go 4-first round picks), they will offer starters/recent high draft picks, and for HOU they get Deshaun out of the conference and can spend the next few years blowing it up/rebuilding the entire roster. 

I know people think (well the Jets have the 2nd pick!). For one, Houston knows they have a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, and given the state of the roster, drafting a QB can backfire horribly (see Darnold, Carr). Secondly, Caserio wants to build around the QB, not necessarily through; if they keep Deshaun the intent is obviously to build around him, but if they lose him I don’t think his roster building strategy changes—he’ll seek to build around the position before investing high draft capital/money in a new QB.  

For Houston getting all those first rounders + Teddy Bridgewater as a bridge QB might be their best course of action. No pressure to start a rookie on a bad team and a team leader to bring some respectability to the franchise is the route they should take.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Tough to say.  With the current market, I’d say it’s more likely that it happens after the pro days, since the leverage has changed with some of these teams signing vets.

I’d watch Denver, but that’s a gut thing.

Any feel for which of the draftable QBs that the Jets like?

[prime21]

Just now, kdels62 said:

For Houston getting all those first rounders + Teddy Bridgewater as a bridge QB might be their best course of action. No pressure to start a rookie on a bad team and a team leader to bring some respectability to the franchise is the route they should take.

And at 8 they have a shot at Lance and Jones.  If not interested they can trade back again.  

[Greenseed4]

3 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

For Houston getting all those first rounders + Teddy Bridgewater as a bridge QB might be their best course of action. No pressure to start a rookie on a bad team and a team leader to bring some respectability to the franchise is the route they should take.

Plus they signed Tyrod Taylor. 

[TomDex69]

40 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

I'm saying the Jets had 68 million in cap space after Maye.

(Roughly)

Lawson: 15 mil.

Davis1: 5.5 mil.

Davis2: 13 mil.

That special teamer:  ? 3mil?

Rookies:  12.5 mil.

68 - 15 - 5.5 - 13 - 3 - 12.5 = 19 million free

Actually lower than I thought.

I'm a new member but I've been lurking the past month or so.  I figured I would throw my 2 cents in here.

When coming up with how much cap space a team will need to sign their rookies most people get it wrong.  the $12.5 number IS what the 9 rookies would make this year in cap space.  That is true.  But the current cap number is based on 53 players already so those rookies would be replacing 9 players who are already taking up cap space.  So looking at the roster those bottom players on the 53 who are most likely to be cut take up about $7.7 million in cap space.  That means it would take roughly $4.8 million in additional cap space to sign all 9 rookies.

Also, almost assuredly, Lawsons contract at $15 million per year will have a lower cap hit in year 1 than $15 million.  I'm going to suggest it'll be around $10 million.  

Current Cap Space:  $54 million (not $51 million like originally reported.  Corey Davis' number is $9.3 not $12.3 like it says on OTC)

Deduct Lawson and Rookies:  Roughly $15 million

Cap Space Left:  $39 million

I expect another $10 million from the the Jets releasing Crowder.  The Jets have plenty of money to sign whoever they want if they're willing to.

[football guy]

11 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

For Houston getting all those first rounders + Teddy Bridgewater as a bridge QB might be their best course of action. No pressure to start a rookie on a bad team and a team leader to bring some respectability to the franchise is the route they should take.

Bingo. And kind of like Miami in 2019 year, they’d go into 2021 expecting to be bad. As much as people say “but next years QB class stinks!”, it’s such an uninformed perspective. Scouts only have so much bandwidth to study future draft picks; they usually focus on big name players or guys that are draft-eligible that given year. No one expected Goff/Wentz to go #1/2 in 2015, no one expected Baker/Allen #1/#7 in 2017. No one expected Murray/Jones #1/#6 in 2018. No one expected Burrow #1 in 2019...

[BornJetsFan1983]

14 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

Potential grab from BAL if we trade Mosely.

sign that beast!!

[32EBoozer]

25 minutes ago, bitonti said:

a gentleman never asks and a lady never tells 

@kelly can do both simultaneously!

[TomDex69]

18 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Great to hear.  Welcome to Jersey Watson!

It could also mean they're going to stick and pick a QB.  I prefer Watson though IF the cost isn't outrageous.

[TomDex69]

19 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

So you cut a good player because you feel he is overpaid relative to the market? Makes no sense. Now if you can go sign Ju Ju for similar money then it makes sense

Eh, you could probably cut him, then re-sign him and still save $4-$5 million based on the market right now.  

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

12 minutes ago, football guy said:

*If* the Texans traded Watson, Carolina is the team. They will outbid everyone (will go 4-first round picks), they will offer starters/recent high draft picks, and for HOU they get Deshaun out of the conference and can spend the next few years blowing it up/rebuilding the entire roster. 

I know people think “well the Jets have the 2nd pick... it’s so much more valueable!” 

For one, Houston knows they have a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, and given the state of the roster, drafting a QB can backfire horribly (see Darnold, Carr). Secondly, Caserio wants to build around the QB, not necessarily through; if they keep Deshaun the intent is obviously to build around him, but if they lose him I don’t think his roster building strategy changes—he’ll seek to build around the position before investing high draft capital/money in a new QB.  

Can’t they only offer up to 3? Or is the limit 4?

But yeah, Tepper is gonna get wreckless. 

[Cbucco19]

12 minutes ago, football guy said:

*If* the Texans traded Watson, Carolina is the team. They will outbid everyone (will go 4-first round picks), they will offer starters/recent high draft picks, and for HOU they get Deshaun out of the conference and can spend the next few years blowing it up/rebuilding the entire roster. 

I know people think “well the Jets have the 2nd pick... it’s so much more valueable!” 

For one, Houston knows they have a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, and given the state of the roster, drafting a QB can backfire horribly (see Darnold, Carr). Secondly, Caserio wants to build around the QB, not necessarily through; if they keep Deshaun the intent is obviously to build around him, but if they lose him I don’t think his roster building strategy changes—he’ll seek to build around the position before investing high draft capital/money in a new QB.  

100 % agree ! Jets might have #2 but it doesn’t mean they want to give up multiple picks. Everyone is assuming they need to take a Qb this year !! 

[56mehl56]

9 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Why don't people think Lawrence is skinny?. He is 3" taller than Wilson and the same weight. Must be the hair, no one sees any fault in Trevor other than Simms. Funny thing is I think there is at least a 25% chance we wind up with Lawrence.

Because he has the frame to be able add 15-20 pounds .

[Mike135]

2 minutes ago, TomDex69 said:

I'm a new member but I've been lurking the past month or so.  I figured I would throw my 2 cents in here.

When coming up with how much cap space a team will need to sign their rookies most people get it wrong.  the $12.5 number IS what the 9 rookies would make this year in cap space.  That is true.  But the current cap number is based on 53 players already so those rookies would be replacing 9 players who are already taking up cap space.  So looking at the roster those bottom players on the 53 who are most likely to be cut take up about $7.7 million in cap space.  That means it would take roughly $4.8 million in additional cap space to sign all 9 rookies.

Also, almost assuredly, Lawsons contract at $15 million per year will have a lower cap hit in year 1 than $15 million.  I'm going to suggest it'll be around $10 million.  

Current Cap Space:  $54 million (not $51 million like originally reported.  Corey Davis' number is $9.3 not $12.3 like it says on OTC)

Deduct Lawson and Rookies:  Roughly $15 million

Cap Space Left:  $39 million

I expect another $10 million from the the Jets releasing Crowder.  The Jets have plenty of money to sign whoever they want if they're willing to.

Fair points, though I try to keep everything relative.  Basically look at all teams current cap space and subtract rookie costs.  Much easier vs trying to figure who is drafted and then who get let go and their cap hits.  You'd go nuts figuring that.

You're likely correct about Lawson, but until the details emerge, I see 45/3.

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, football guy said:

Bingo. And kind of like Miami  last year, they’ll go into 2022 expecting to be bad. As much as people say “but next years QB class stinks!”, is such an uninformed perspective. Scouts only have so much bandwidth to study future draft picks; they usually focus on big name players or guys that could declare for the draft that given year. No one expected Goff/Wentz to go #1/2 in 2016, no one expected Baker/Allen #1/#7 in 2018. No one expected Murray/Jones #1/#6 in 2019. No one expected Burrow #1 in 2020...

The Jet draft picks in '22 & '23 will be lower than Panthers with DW. There is something to be said about predicting where Texans would be likely to pick in both scenarios.

[DoubleDown]

21 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

I no longer believe Sam + trade is the preference.  Take that as you will.  This time it’s based on information.  Not gut feeling.

Draft Wilson, decline Sam's fifth year option, use Sam as a bridge QB for 1 year.

So obvious, staring everyone in the face, but nobody wants to believe it.

[C Mart]

11 minutes ago, football guy said:

*If* the Texans traded Watson, Carolina is the team. They will outbid everyone (will go 4-first round picks), they will offer starters/recent high draft picks, and for HOU they get Deshaun out of the conference and can spend the next few years blowing it up/rebuilding the entire roster. 

I know people think “well the Jets have the 2nd pick... it’s so much more valueable!” 

For one, Houston knows they have a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, and given the state of the roster, drafting a QB can backfire horribly (see Darnold, Carr). Secondly, Caserio wants to build around the QB, not necessarily through; if they keep Deshaun the intent is obviously to build around him, but if they lose him I don’t think his roster building strategy changes—he’ll seek to build around the position before investing high draft capital/money in a new QB.  

I heard on Sirius this morning w/Charlie Weiss and the host - and I never knew this - a team can only trade 3 straight years of #1 picks?  

I know the NBA you can't trade a #1 two straight years.  I didn't know the NFL had a limit.....Obviously regarding the above Carolina could do 3 consecutive years of #1. Keep their yr 4 and trade their #1 the following year

[Mike135]

3 minutes ago, TomDex69 said:

It could also mean they're going to stick and pick a QB.  I prefer Watson though IF the cost isn't outrageous.

Well sure, but considering the change in prefered option occurred the exact same time folks are now saying Watson will definitely be traded?

That'd be one hell of a coincidence. 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

18 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Sam Howell had 2 RBs that will be drafted and 2 WRs that will be drafted. If Sam Howell was anything more than decent they’d have made a legit run this past year.

How was it Sam fault that they got whipped by FSU? Travis dealt it to them, there was no stopping that kid. Plus that defense isn't Championship caliber. The kid deserve the hype after steping in as an 18 year old and passing for 3,600 yards, 36 TDs and 7 int. He has all the making of a polish pro.

[Paradis]

• Athleticism
• timing
• Touch
• Arm strength
• Arm talent
• Willingness to take chances
• improvisation
• cerebral 

Of all the franchise QBs like Mahomes, Manning, Brady, Brees, Montana -- none that them had all or one of these. They all won with different qualities... but they all had 1 thing in common

• Can handle/manipulate pressure - in the pocket or out. 

Dealing with the pressure is only thing these guys all had. ... and what is the ONE thing we don't now about Zach fcking Wilson

• Can he handle pressure

 

*shake my damn head*

[Jetluv58]

1 minute ago, Paradis said:

• Athleticism
• timing
• Touch
• Arm strength
• Arm talent
• Willingness to take chances
• improvisation
• cerebral 

Of all the franchise QBs like Mahomes, Manning, Brady, Brees, Montana -- none that them had all or one of these. They all won with different qualities... but they all had 1 thing in common

• Can handle/manipulate pressure - in the pocket or out. 

Dealing with the pressure is only thing these guys all it. ... and what is the ONE thing we don't now about Zach fcking Wilson

• Can he handle pressure

 

*shake my damn head*

Does he see ghosts?

[kdels62]

2 minutes ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

How was it Sam fault that they got whipped by FSU? Travis dealt it to them, there was no stopping that kid. Plus that defense isn't Championship caliber. The kid deserve the hype after steping in as an 18 year old and passing for 3,600 yards, 36 TDs and 7 int. He has all the making of a polish pro.

Eh. I could see Howell being something but I wouldn’t hold my breath. That UNC team could’ve been much more if they had a better QB. He has to become much better to be a first rounder and it’s not worth banking on that when there’s 4 top 10 type of QBs in this draft.

[kdels62]

11 minutes ago, Paradis said:

• Athleticism
• timing
• Touch
• Arm strength
• Arm talent
• Willingness to take chances
• improvisation
• cerebral 

Of all the franchise QBs like Mahomes, Manning, Brady, Brees, Montana -- none that them had all or one of these. They all won with different qualities... but they all had 1 thing in common

• Can handle/manipulate pressure - in the pocket or out. 

Dealing with the pressure is only thing these guys all had. ... and what is the ONE thing we don't now about Zach fcking Wilson

• Can he handle pressure

 

*shake my damn head*

When he faces pressure (admittedly it didn’t happen very often) he put up efficiency numbers better than Lawrence. He was also better than Fields as a passer in those situations. 

[Jetlife33]

 

[C Mart]

3 minutes ago, Jetluv58 said:

Does he see ghosts?

The list would be shorter of NFL QBs that didn't

[Jetlife33]

 

[TomDex69]

16 minutes ago, football guy said:

*If* the Texans traded Watson, Carolina is the team. They will outbid everyone (will go 4-first round picks), they will offer starters/recent high draft picks, and for HOU they get Deshaun out of the conference and can spend the next few years blowing it up/rebuilding the entire roster. 

I know people think “well the Jets have the 2nd pick... it’s so much more valueable!” 

For one, Houston knows they have a multi-year rebuild ahead of them, and given the state of the roster, drafting a QB can backfire horribly (see Darnold, Carr). Secondly, Caserio wants to build around the QB, not necessarily through; if they keep Deshaun the intent is obviously to build around him, but if they lose him I don’t think his roster building strategy changes—he’ll seek to build around the position before investing high draft capital/money in a new QB.  

I respect your opinion and your info although I disagree with a few things.

1. Carolina can't offer 4 1st round picks b/c they only have 3 in the next 3 years and you can't trade out further than that.

2. The 2nd overall pick is much more valuable to a team who ISN'T picking a QB b/c of the trade possibilities.  Assuming the Jets would include a 3rd this year plus a 2022 1st and 2023 1st along with the 2nd pick, the Texans could then trade back out to Carolina or Denver and pick up an additional 2nd in 2021, 1st and 3rd in 2022 along with the 2021 1st. They would end up with:

2021 1st (Carolina), 2nd (Carolina), 3rd (Jets)

2022 1st (Jets), 1st (Carolina), 3rd (Carolina)

2023 1st (Jets)

They would go from having 1 total pick (3rd round 2021) in the 1st 3 rounds of the next 2 drafts to having 7.  In my opinion that package is MUCH more valuable to the Texans future than anything Carolina could offer.