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The Risks of trading for Deshaun Watson


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I get that Watson is a star in the NFL, and I get that he legitimizes the Jets opportunity to get back to the playoffs, but what about the risks? 

Let us examine the #1 risk:

1. Injury risk- Watson tore his ACL in his left knee in 2014 as a freshman at Clemson in practice.  In 2017, Watson tore his ACL in his right knee in practice, which was a season-ending injury.   By trading for Watson, we give up at least 3 1st round draft picks; not to mention our #2 pick for the year.  In addition, we siphon money that we can spend on free agents to Watson.  He will count around $30 million dollars in 2 years, and more than that in the future.  

Would you take a chance on him getting injured?  He tore both his ACL ligaments in practice.  He is an injury away from wasting all those draft picks and giving up all of that money that could be used to bring on free agents at positions of need.  Will Watson have less injuries as he ages?  My money says no!

2. The risk that by bringing on Watson, we forego bringing on players to upgrade this roster, which according to many experts, was the worst overall roster in the NFL this past season.

3. I realize that most Jets fans will scoff at this next risk, but here it goes anyway.  The risk that Darnold goes to another team with a vastly improved roster, and becomes the QB that most people envisioned when we first drafted him.  

I don't believe that this is far fetched at all.  With competent coaching and a improved offensive line and legitimate wide receivers, Darnold has the opportunity to "shove it up our butts?"   

For my money, we run it back one more year with Sam Darnold!

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Just now, Biggs said:

The risk of keeping Sam is both Saleh and Douglas get fired in 2 years, rinse repeat.  No risk it no biscuit is going to the SB.  

There's risks in any decision.  That is a fact.  But one must weigh each decision against the other possible ones.  Which is riskier?  For my money, it's in getting Deshaun Watson.

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2 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Watson is staying in Houston

People are obsessing over this daily and absolutely nothing is going to come of it. He hasn’t even formally asked for a trade. Why would that be the case if he was completely done with the Texans?

The Jets are either sticking with Darnold or drafting Wilson at #2.

 

Thank you.  I feel better now.

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3 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Watson is staying in Houston

People are obsessing over this daily and absolutely nothing is going to co!me of it. He hasn’t even formally asked for a trade. Why would that be the case if he was completely done with the Texans?

The Jets are either sticking with Darnold or drafting Wilson at #2.

 

I think the Jets trade down and build around Sam and that is so very exciting!!!!!

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1 minute ago, Alka said:

There's risks in any decision.  That is a fact.  But one must weigh each decision against the other possible ones.  Which is riskier?  For my money, it's in getting Deshaun Watson.

There may come a time when you're willing to have an erection for more than 4 hours.  The Jets have no mojo and haven't for a very long time.  There was a time when the Jets overspent for an injured QB who had little chance of holding up playing NFL football.  They put all their chips in and rode his arm to a SB.  That was a long time ago.  It's time to start up the Lincoln and see if this management has any sack. 

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16 minutes ago, JiF said:

1. Knee injuries arent what they once were....he's played 3 straight season, 2 in the postseason, no injuries. Alex Smith almost had to have his leg amputated to save his life and he's playing Football again.  Knee injuries arent the kiss of the death anymore

2.  @bla bla bla - created an outstanding thread showing that the Jets could pay a premium of picks for Watson and still build a highly competitive roster this season.  The other part is, Watson is 25, you'll have him for at least 10 more years...plenty of time to build around him.  Rome wasnt built in a day.

3. Sam Darnold is a mega bust and sucks and was and will never ever ever ever will be anywhere near as good as Deshaun Watson. 

That is as good of a reason not to go after him as it is to go after him.

We have a bucket of high  picks, build the team then settle your net Qb into a team rich in talent.

Some of the best QB prospects in the league such as josh allen and herbert and mahoomes were not 1 or 2 picks so you can get good QBs without having to trade to #1 or even #2

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I’d get this argument more if the Jets had limited cap space and/or draft capital.

I think there are many more ifs to a Darnold scenario than a Watson scenario.

That you bring up injury risk is a little funny. Darnold hasn’t played more than 13 games in any of his three NFL seasons - 38 total and some of those aren’t full games. Watson has played 47 over that same stretch.

The last argument isn’t one I think is fair either, even as someone who thinks Darnold is salvageable. I think he needs a lot around him, quality coaching, and maybe a year off. If the Jets have a more sure thing on the table who cares if he’s good elsewhere?

The biggest perk to Watson aside from his talent is the continued legitimacy he brings to the franchise. The Shanahan offense typically targets a #1 WR heavily. That’s a guy the Jets need to acquire. Allen Robinson is already indicating interest in playing with Watson on the Jets.

If you’re Robinson and your next and probably last chance at a big contract after the one you sign this offseason and incentives on the deal you sign hinge on your production - are you thrilled to go from Trubisky to Darnold? Probably not. That’s a likely loss of a major talent upgrade and need for money alone just for sticking with Darnold.

Now can they have a good chance at a WR with a pick they’d otherwise use to acquire Watson? Sure. But we still aren’t sure if Darnold will be good. Say he doesn’t make significant progress - which is very possible. Now you’ve used a major asset on a player whose growth is being stunted because of poor quarterback play instead of using that asset to just acquire a good quarterback. And that’s the ripple effect at one position.

And this is all ignoring the fact that the Jets need to make a decision on Darnold’s fifth year option this spring without seeing him in this system - if they decline, which is possible if not likely, you either have a failed quarterback and a massive crater at the most important position in the sport heading into the 2022 offseason or a one year wonder who you need to decide how to compensate.

Hanging on to him versus acquiring Watson is a huge, huge potential mess with all kind of risks associated with it.

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28 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The risk of keeping Sam is both Saleh and Douglas get fired in 2 years, rinse repeat.  No risk it no biscuit is going to the SB.  

Draft a QB at 23 to compete with Sam

 

unless Watson is available at a reasonable price that’s the way to go

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31 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The risk of keeping Sam is both Saleh and Douglas get fired in 2 years, rinse repeat.  No risk it no biscuit is going to the SB.  

Actually I think its the opposite.  The Johnsons love Darnold and probably want to see him get 1 more chance with a real staff and improved roster.  If he doesn't live up to expectations then they can draft a QB next year which restarts the clock for Douglas.  

If they let Sam go and he improves, while we draft a QB who busts, Douglas is in a far more precarious situation.

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3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's the opposite 

Sam is free money.  neither man picked him or invested anything in him. 

Joe Douglas does not get fired for 1 more year of Sam 

Saleh just got here he too will get a long leash at building a program. 

You're correct he won't be fired next year.  The year after when we have wasted another year and Sam has to be cut lose and we go 3 and 13 with a rookie QB, that's going to do it.  

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52 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

That is as good of a reason not to go after him as it is to go after him.

We have a bucket of high  picks, build the team then settle your net Qb into a team rich in talent.

Some of the best QB prospects in the league such as josh allen and herbert and mahoomes were not 1 or 2 picks so you can get good QBs without having to trade to #1 or even #2

It is if you're being short sighted.  Like I said, you can still build around him this season but the overall point I was trying to make was, 2021 isnt the only year the Jets will have to add talent around Watson, hypothetically.  And the other part is 2021, isnt going to be the year to contend with Watson but if you're taking a rookie and going that route, then you're really not trying to compete any time soon....so again, what's the difference? 

To me it's worth it because QB is that important and you're taking the guess work out of the equation but the reality is, I dont think it's happening. I just think it's silly to act like you cant build a championship roster around Watson.  You can.  100%

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1 minute ago, Pac said:

Actually I think its the opposite.  The Johnsons love Darnold and probably want to see him get 1 more chance with a real staff and improved roster.  If he doesn't live up to expectations then they can draft a QB next year which restarts the clock for Douglas.  

If they let Sam go and he improves, while we draft a QB who busts, Douglas is in a far more precarious situation.

The smart move is draft another young QB like Wilson, Lance or Trask at 23 to compete with Sam

 

Gase is notorious for being QB AIDS.  Last season he had 3.5 ypc Frank Gore is the featured back of our offense and nonstop screen plays that defenses always figured out

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4 minutes ago, Pac said:

Actually I think its the opposite.  The Johnsons love Darnold and probably want to see him get 1 more chance with a real staff and improved roster.  If he doesn't live up to expectations then they can draft a QB next year which restarts the clock for Douglas.  

If they let Sam go and he improves, while we draft a QB who busts, Douglas is in a far more precarious situation.

The absolute lack of sack by Jets fans is unbelievable.  If we move on from Sam and we draft a bust they should go.   If they decide Sam is the answer and he isn't they should go.  If they evaluate the options and draft a bust see you later.  These guys aren't here to save their ass, there here to make the Jets a competitive playoff caliber team.  

If they are operating to save their asses who wants them?  

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11 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

That is as good of a reason not to go after him as it is to go after him.

We have a bucket of high  picks, build the team then settle your net Qb into a team rich in talent.

Some of the best QB prospects in the league such as josh allen and herbert and mahoomes were not 1 or 2 picks so you can get good QBs without having to trade to #1 or even #2

I broke it down in a video as well. I don't expect Douglas to pay a crazy ransome nor do I expect him to go after the highest priced FAs but I use those as examples because they are the "worst case scenario"

Bringing in guys like Darby, Okwara, Samuel, and Zeitler are going to cost a fraction of other FAs and would all be instant upgrades to our roster.

Herbert is an interesting case, idk why he fell the way he did. Allen and Mahomes were both trade ups (Allen they had to trade up twice to land him) so while QBs don't have to be taken at #1 or #2 the alternative is giving up far more to go get your guy when you see him. 

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The real risk is that once we make this trade we are OWNED by Watson!

We will not be able to move him ever because of the sunk costs associated with acquiring him!

Also, his power position within the organization will be astronomical!!! 

In many ways Watson will have more power than Saleh overnight! 

The key is do you give Watson this power when (i) he is forcing his way off his current team, and (ii) we do not know how he will be in NY (Bobby Bonilla anyone)! 

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Just now, Charlie Brown said:

The real risk is that once we make this trade we are OWNED by Watson!

We will not be able to move him ever because of the sunk costs associated with acquiring him!

Also, his power position within the organization will be astronomical!!! 

In many ways Watson will have more power than Saleh overnight! 

The key is do you give Watson this power when (i) he is forcing his way off his current team, and (ii) we do not know how he will be in NY (Bobby Bonilla anyone)! 

And if we have another crappy year WITH Watson I can see it getting ugly quick

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26 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

The risk is we trade away way too many picks and end up sticking Watson with a worse roster than what he had last year when he went 4-12

Hasn't JD been well regarded as being in the Ozzy school of GMing?? If JD can't provide Watson with enough talent using the $70+ mil in cap space and a full array of draft picks (One 1st this yr. and next) then what the hell are we paying him for? Can he only accomplish our common SB goal by having THREE 1st round picks for the next 4 years??! 

"He who is faithful with little will be faithful with much"

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51 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Watson is staying in Houston

People are obsessing over this daily and absolutely nothing is going to come of it. He hasn’t even formally asked for a trade. Why would that be the case if he was completely done with the Texans?

The Jets are either sticking with Darnold or drafting Wilson at #2.

 

I tend to believe this as well except for the fact that Houston is so massively screwed over in terms of cap and draft picks that the only way to fix it is to trade Watson and get draft capital. Everyone is focused on #1s but I think they might want lots of mid round picks. If Watson is not traded their situation is so bad that they may never be competitive over the length of Watson's contract. 

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34 minutes ago, derp said:

I’d get this argument more if the Jets had limited cap space and/or draft capital.

I think there are many more ifs to a Darnold scenario than a Watson scenario.

That you bring up injury risk is a little funny. Darnold hasn’t played more than 13 games in any of his three NFL seasons - 38 total and some of those aren’t full games. Watson has played 47 over that same stretch.

The last argument isn’t one I think is fair either, even as someone who thinks Darnold is salvageable. I think he needs a lot around him, quality coaching, and maybe a year off. If the Jets have a more sure thing on the table who cares if he’s good elsewhere?

The biggest perk to Watson aside from his talent is the continued legitimacy he brings to the franchise. The Shanahan offense typically targets a #1 WR heavily. That’s a guy the Jets need to acquire. Allen Robinson is already indicating interest in playing with Watson on the Jets.

If you’re Robinson and your next and probably last chance at a big contract after the one you sign this offseason and incentives on the deal you sign hinge on your production - are you thrilled to go from Trubisky to Darnold? Probably not. That’s a likely loss of a major talent upgrade and need for money alone just for sticking with Darnold.

Now can they have a good chance at a WR with a pick they’d otherwise use to acquire Watson? Sure. But we still aren’t sure if Darnold will be good. Say he doesn’t make significant progress - which is very possible. Now you’ve used a major asset on a player whose growth is being stunted because of poor quarterback play instead of using that asset to just acquire a good quarterback. And that’s the ripple effect at one position.

And this is all ignoring the fact that the Jets need to make a decision on Darnold’s fifth year option this spring without seeing him in this system - if they decline, which is possible if not likely, you either have a failed quarterback and a massive crater at the most important position in the sport heading into the 2022 offseason or a one year wonder who you need to decide how to compensate.

Hanging on to him versus acquiring Watson is a huge, huge potential mess with all kind of risks associated with it.

#1- The fifth year option on Darnold is about $10M.  Not too bad for a starting QB in the NFL.

#2- Stunting the growth of a top #1 wide receiver or the top offensive tackle in the draft?  I look at it that you now have a top player for hopefully the next decade that you can continue to build your team around,

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4 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Hasn't JD been well regarded as being in the Ozzy school of GMing?? If JD can't provide Watson with enough talent using the $70+ mil in cap space and a full array of draft picks (One 1st this yr. and next) then what the hell are we paying him for? Can he only accomplish our common SB goal by having THREE 1st round picks for the next 4 years??! 

"He who is faithful with little will be faithful with much"

JD is such a great GM we won 2 games with his roster

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1 hour ago, Untouchable said:

The Jets are either sticking with Darnold or drafting Wilson at #2.

 

over Justin Fields who competed at the highest level and whose college stats compare pretty much with what Trevor Lawrence did?

why Zack Wilson over Justin Fields?

Wilson is a top #2 overall pick type of talent?

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3 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

The real risk is that once we make this trade we are OWNED by Watson!

We will not be able to move him ever because of the sunk costs associated with acquiring him!

Also, his power position within the organization will be astronomical!!! 

In many ways Watson will have more power than Saleh overnight! 

The key is do you give Watson this power when (i) he is forcing his way off his current team, and (ii) we do not know how he will be in NY (Bobby Bonilla anyone)! 

Why would we want to move a franchise QB that is signed through the 2025 season?? Why would he want to leave if we surround him with talent and we begin to challenge for the division? Why leave when you have a minority coach that he actually esteems highly? Why leave when you are cashing in with advertisements and hanging with Byoncee and her husband and Durant and Harden?

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Every player in the league comes with injury risk. 

There’s more than 1 way to build a roster, this is not a zero sum acquisition.

If we have Watson, I don’t care what Sam does elsewhere.

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