The Risks of trading for Deshaun Watson

[Jets Voice of Reason]

22 minutes ago, JiF said:

It is if you're being short sighted.  Like I said, you can still build around him this season but the overall point I was trying to make was, 2021 isnt the only year the Jets will have to add talent around Watson, hypothetically.  And the other part is 2021, isnt going to be the year to contend with Watson but if you're taking a rookie and going that route, then you're really not trying to compete any time soon....so again, what's the difference? 

To me it's worth it because QB is that important you're taking the guess work out of the equation but they reality is, I dont think it's happening. I just think it's silly to act like you cant build a championship roster around Watson.  You can.  100%

You need a good team, but a top qb is a prerequisite to maximize your windows. It is the hardest thing to find and a setback there costs your team 3-5 years at a time.

Maholmes is a thing and likely will be for the next decade at least. The Colts, which basically is the ideal form of the build a team without the qb model has very little shot of beating them without figuring out the qb position. It’s insane that fans of a team that haven’t gotten qb right in decades are insistent on sticking with a guy who hasn’t shown much improvement in three years. 

[Ecuadorian Jet]

1 hour ago, Alka said:

Let us examine the #1 risk:

1. Injury risk- Watson tore his ACL in his left knee in 2014 as a freshman at Clemson in practice.  In 2017, Watson tore his ACL in his right knee in practice, which was a season-ending injury.   By trading for Watson, we give up at least 3 1st round draft picks; not to mention our #2 pick for the year.  In addition, we siphon money that we can spend on free agents to Watson.  He will count around $30 million dollars in 2 years, and more than that in the future.  

stop right there: both knees! I had no idea. I am not being sarcastic, but that sounds like too much risk.

[Sammybighead]

1 hour ago, Alka said:

I get that Watson is a star in the NFL, and I get that he legitimizes the Jets opportunity to get back to the playoffs, but what about the risks? 

Let us examine the #1 risk:

1. Injury risk- Watson tore his ACL in his left knee in 2014 as a freshman at Clemson in practice.  In 2017, Watson tore his ACL in his right knee in practice, which was a season-ending injury.   By trading for Watson, we give up at least 3 1st round draft picks; not to mention our #2 pick for the year.  In addition, we siphon money that we can spend on free agents to Watson.  He will count around $30 million dollars in 2 years, and more than that in the future.  

Would you take a chance on him getting injured?  He tore both his ACL ligaments in practice.  He is an injury away from wasting all those draft picks and giving up all of that money that could be used to bring on free agents at positions of need.  Will Watson have less injuries as he ages?  My money says no!

2. The risk that by bringing on Watson, we forego bringing on players to upgrade this roster, which according to many experts, was the worst overall roster in the NFL this past season.

3. I realize that most Jets fans will scoff at this next risk, but here it goes anyway.  The risk that Darnold goes to another team with a vastly improved roster, and becomes the QB that most people envisioned when we first drafted him.  

I don't believe that this is far fetched at all.  With competent coaching and a improved offensive line and legitimate wide receivers, Darnold has the opportunity to "shove it up our butts?"   

For my money, we run it back one more year with Sam Darnold!

No, i don’t believe you do “get” that...

[Untouchable]

Just now, Ecuadorian Jet said:

over Justin Fields who competed at the highest level and whose college stats compare pretty much with what Trevor Lawrence did?

why Zack Wilson over Justin Fields?

Because he’s a much better fit for a Shanahan WCO. And by all accounts, Robert Saleh is dead set on running that style of offense. Everyone from LaFleur to Knapp to Calabrese is well versed in the scheme.

Fields has a ton of natural ability but even most of his biggest fans and dudes that I respect tremendously like Daniel Jeremiah will admit that he’s a bit of a slow processor who struggles beyond his first read.

My biggest question regarding Wilson is his stature and durability. Lord knows I’ve poked plenty of fun at it. But there’s no question that he fits this system like a glove, possesses a lighting quick release with a sh*tload of arm talent and is accurate at all three levels. And by all accounts the kid is a football junkie who is going to wow teams on the white board.

[T0mShane]

34 minutes ago, JiF said:

It is if you're being short sighted.  Like I said, you can still build around him this season but the overall point I was trying to make was, 2021 isnt the only year the Jets will have to add talent around Watson, hypothetically.  And the other part is 2021, isnt going to be the year to contend with Watson but if you're taking a rookie and going that route, then you're really not trying to compete any time soon....so again, what's the difference? 

To me it's worth it because QB is that important you're taking the guess work out of the equation but they reality is, I dont think it's happening. I just think it's silly to act like you cant build a championship roster around Watson.  You can.  100%

  But what if we kept our picks and built around Kedon Slovis next year,

[Pac]

31 minutes ago, Biggs said:

The absolute lack of sack by Jets fans is unbelievable.  If we move on from Sam and we draft a bust they should go.   If they decide Sam is the answer and he isn't they should go.  If they evaluate the options and draft a bust see you later.  These guys aren't here to save their ass, there here to make the Jets a competitive playoff caliber team.  

If they are operating to save their asses who wants them?  

Not sure what you're getting at..  its a lot more ballsy to stick with Sam than capitulate to whatever outlandish demands Houston would ask for or draft Brian Austin Green with the 2nd pick.

It also happens to be the best choice.

[Bronx]

1 hour ago, Alka said:

I get that Watson is a star in the NFL, and I get that he legitimizes the Jets opportunity to get back to the playoffs, but what about the risks? 

Let us examine the #1 risk:

1. Injury risk- Watson tore his ACL in his left knee in 2014 as a freshman at Clemson in practice.  In 2017, Watson tore his ACL in his right knee in practice, which was a season-ending injury.   By trading for Watson, we give up at least 3 1st round draft picks; not to mention our #2 pick for the year.  In addition, we siphon money that we can spend on free agents to Watson.  He will count around $30 million dollars in 2 years, and more than that in the future.  

Would you take a chance on him getting injured?  He tore both his ACL ligaments in practice.  He is an injury away from wasting all those draft picks and giving up all of that money that could be used to bring on free agents at positions of need.  Will Watson have less injuries as he ages?  My money says no!

2. The risk that by bringing on Watson, we forego bringing on players to upgrade this roster, which according to many experts, was the worst overall roster in the NFL this past season.

3. I realize that most Jets fans will scoff at this next risk, but here it goes anyway.  The risk that Darnold goes to another team with a vastly improved roster, and becomes the QB that most people envisioned when we first drafted him.  

I don't believe that this is far fetched at all.  With competent coaching and a improved offensive line and legitimate wide receivers, Darnold has the opportunity to "shove it up our butts?"   

For my money, we run it back one more year with Sam Darnold!

Zach Wilson would not survive those injuries.

[56mehl56]

4 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Because he’s a much better fit for a Shanahan WCO. And by all accounts, Robert Saleh is dead set on running that style of offense. Everyone from LaFleur to Knapp to Calabrese is well versed in the scheme.

Fields has a ton of natural ability but even most of his biggest fans and dudes that I respect tremendously like Daniel Jeremiah will admit that he’s a bit of a slow processor who struggles beyond his first read.

My biggest question regarding Wilson is his stature and durability. Lord knows I’ve poked plenty of fun at it. But there’s no question that he fits this system like a glove, possesses a lighting quick release with a sh*tload of arm talent and is accurate at all three levels. And by all accounts the kid is a football junkie who is going to wow teams on the white board.

That is by far the the most overused hype I've seen thrown around here. What type of QB fits the Shanahan WCO - a QB who is accurate, athletic , can throw on the run.  That virtually describes almost every QB coming out of the college ranks today. The knock on Fields is that he can't progress reads fast but yet we see written everywhere this offense is a great fit for Sam because he won't have to think much.  So if its a fit for Darnold its most certainly a fit for Fields. 

[derp]

16 minutes ago, Alka said:

#1- The fifth year option on Darnold is about $10M.  Not too bad for a starting QB in the NFL.

#2- Stunting the growth of a top #1 wide receiver or the top offensive tackle in the draft?  I look at it that you now have a top player for hopefully the next decade that you can continue to build your team around,

Is he a starting QB, though? We don’t know that which is kind of the point. 

Also, pretty sure it’s $25M, not $10M. Slight difference. And honestly either way I think it’s a stretch to expect they pick it up.

And I’m not honestly sure what point you’re trying to make regarding the draft pick. What I said was that you risk Darnold stunting the growth of a premium draft pick, because again - you’re assuming he’ll be good, we don’t know that. You’re now also assuming the pick works out, as well. With or without him being good, maybe? Lots of ifs. That’s what I’m saying.

[Greensleeves]

1 hour ago, Alka said:

I get that Watson is a star in the NFL, and I get that he legitimizes the Jets opportunity to get back to the playoffs, but what about the risks? 

Let us examine the #1 risk:

1. Injury risk- Watson tore his ACL in his left knee in 2014 as a freshman at Clemson in practice.  In 2017, Watson tore his ACL in his right knee in practice, which was a season-ending injury.   By trading for Watson, we give up at least 3 1st round draft picks; not to mention our #2 pick for the year.  In addition, we siphon money that we can spend on free agents to Watson.  He will count around $30 million dollars in 2 years, and more than that in the future.  

Would you take a chance on him getting injured?  He tore both his ACL ligaments in practice.  He is an injury away from wasting all those draft picks and giving up all of that money that could be used to bring on free agents at positions of need.  Will Watson have less injuries as he ages?  My money says no!

2. The risk that by bringing on Watson, we forego bringing on players to upgrade this roster, which according to many experts, was the worst overall roster in the NFL this past season.

3. I realize that most Jets fans will scoff at this next risk, but here it goes anyway.  The risk that Darnold goes to another team with a vastly improved roster, and becomes the QB that most people envisioned when we first drafted him.  

I don't believe that this is far fetched at all.  With competent coaching and a improved offensive line and legitimate wide receivers, Darnold has the opportunity to "shove it up our butts?"   

For my money, we run it back one more year with Sam Darnold!

#2 is just plain false. He counts 10.5 million against our cap this year. He will attract big free agents to come here. Sam will not. So that makes #2 in Watson' favor by a large margin. You think Arob will come here if Sam is QB? Hell no.

#3 - Could happen, but much more likely that Watson is better than Sam his entire career.

#4 (my addition and more important that all the others) If Miami signs him and he plays for them we will be in big trouble for the next decade in our division.

I think it was Greenbean that said the Jets have been in the same division as a Hall of Fame coach or QB for the last 30 years (something like that). We never had better teams than the Dolphins with Marino, Bills with Kelly, Pats with Brady. It could be our time in the division for a change. That's reason enough to give up an extra 2nd! Instead, let's roll the dice in the draft or hope Sam comes around while the Dolphins and Fins have proven assets. It's not smart business.

[shuler82]

Joe Douglas tore it down to accumulate assets and build it back up. He has the cap space and draft picks that give him the flexibility to do it however he sees fit.
 

He can trade for Watson and will still have enough cash and draft capital to still improve the rest of the team. 

[ZachEY]

I, too, am concerned about Watson’s injury history.

Say what you must about Sam Darnold, but you’ve got to hand it to him, he’s been a venerable iron man out there.

[RedBeardedSavage]

The injury scare here, for me at least, is not Deshaun's injury history.

I'm concerned about the # of picks given up for one player. The whole "I'd give up five first round picks" argument that's floated by some talking heads is ludicrous with the career-ending injury risk inherent in the sport. 

I'm willing to take that risk for three firsts. Beyond that I get worried that no football player is worth more than that over the long term. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Charlie Brown said:

The real risk is that once we make this trade we are OWNED by Watson!

We will not be able to move him ever because of the sunk costs associated with acquiring him!

Also, his power position within the organization will be astronomical!!! 

In many ways Watson will have more power than Saleh overnight! 

The key is do you give Watson this power when (i) he is forcing his way off his current team, and (ii) we do not know how he will be in NY (Bobby Bonilla anyone)! 

 

Why would you want to move on from a top 5 QB?  You acquire Watson and make him your QB through 2030.  Done.  Position fixed.  

[CTJetsFan]

56 minutes ago, Alka said:

#1- The fifth year option on Darnold is about $10M.  Not too bad for a starting QB in the NFL.

#2- Stunting the growth of a top #1 wide receiver or the top offensive tackle in the draft?  I look at it that you now have a top player for hopefully the next decade that you can continue to build your team around,

I don't believe this is correct. The 5th year option for Darnold will be > $25 million.

However, I believe Darnold's cap cost for his 4th year (2021 season) is around $10 million.

[varjet]

The people who run the Texans are not very smart.  

They will not agree to trade Watson unless they save face-I heard their coverage guy say they needed a Herschel/Ricky type haul.

History has shown that the teams getting the draft picks in those trades were the big, big winners.

The 2, another first round pick, maybe a 2 or 3.  That is all Watson is worth in the big picture.  The number 2 pick is worth at least twice the 15.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, Alka said:

#1- The fifth year option on Darnold is about $10M.  Not too bad for a starting QB in the NFL.

lol where did you hear this?  The 5th year option would be over $25M.  

[Charlie Brown]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

Why would we want to move a franchise QB that is signed through the 2025 season?? Why would he want to leave if we surround him with talent and we begin to challenge for the division? Why leave when you have a minority coach that he actually esteems highly? Why leave when you are cashing in with advertisements and hanging with Byoncee and her husband and Durant and Harden?

Things happen.....

Look at Philadelphia and Wentz...

Nothing stays the same!

Getting a Tom Brady (  ) is a once in lifetime occurrence.

If you are good at management you don't hope for a once in a lifetime occurrence.....you play chess not checkers!

Whatever they choose, I think for once we have the right management structure.... 

Oh and Robert Saleh is Master Chess Player!

[Charlie Brown]

2 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Watson is staying in Houston

People are obsessing over this daily and absolutely nothing is going to come of it. He hasn’t even formally asked for a trade. Why would that be the case if he was completely done with the Texans?

The Jets are either sticking with Darnold or drafting Wilson at #2.

 

I was against Wilson and now I'm for it... 

[32EBoozer]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

Things happen.....

Look at Philadelphia and Wentz...

Nothing stays the same!

Getting a Tom Brady (  ) is a once in lifetime occurrence.

If you are good at management you don't hope for a once in a lifetime occurrence.....you play chess not checkers!

Whatever they choose, I think for once we have the right management structure.... 

Oh and Robert Saleh is Master Chess Player!

Oh Charlie Brown!!! You missed the ball!

[Charlie Brown]

31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Why would you want to move on from a top 5 QB?  You acquire Watson and make him your QB through 2030.  Done.  Position fixed.  

In Management you have to plan for the future and you should do a basic SWOT analysis Strengths; Weakness; Opportunities; and Threats

I like Watson, underestimated him when he came out, I wanted Mahomes, I was just responding to the OP and saying that these were my concerns, but they wouldn't stop me from getting Watson but if something went wrong after I made the trade I would be prepared.

[CanadaSteve]

2 hours ago, Biggs said:

The risk of keeping Sam is both Saleh and Douglas get fired in 2 years, rinse repeat.  No risk it no biscuit is going to the SB.  

Yeah...no.

[joewilly12]

Risk vs Reward 

Comes into play with every draft pick, free agent signing, trade. 

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, Alka said:

#1- The fifth year option on Darnold is about $10M.  Not too bad for a starting QB in the NFL.

#2- Stunting the growth of a top #1 wide receiver or the top offensive tackle in the draft?  I look at it that you now have a top player for hopefully the next decade that you can continue to build your team around,

I'm notoriously bad at math but my understanding is that The 5th year option is 25 million 

If darnold becomes a star after the Jets decline the 5th year option, the Jets could still franchise tag him which is basically 25-30 million, same as the option 

The 4th year current is 10 million 

[NYJ1]

3 hours ago, Alka said:

I get that Watson is a star in the NFL, and I get that he legitimizes the Jets opportunity to get back to the playoffs, but what about the risks? 

Let us examine the #1 risk:

1. Injury risk- Watson tore his ACL in his left knee in 2014 as a freshman at Clemson in practice.  In 2017, Watson tore his ACL in his right knee in practice, which was a season-ending injury.   By trading for Watson, we give up at least 3 1st round draft picks; not to mention our #2 pick for the year.  In addition, we siphon money that we can spend on free agents to Watson.  He will count around $30 million dollars in 2 years, and more than that in the future.  

Would you take a chance on him getting injured?  He tore both his ACL ligaments in practice.  He is an injury away from wasting all those draft picks and giving up all of that money that could be used to bring on free agents at positions of need.  Will Watson have less injuries as he ages?  My money says no!

2. The risk that by bringing on Watson, we forego bringing on players to upgrade this roster, which according to many experts, was the worst overall roster in the NFL this past season.

3. I realize that most Jets fans will scoff at this next risk, but here it goes anyway.  The risk that Darnold goes to another team with a vastly improved roster, and becomes the QB that most people envisioned when we first drafted him.  

I don't believe that this is far fetched at all.  With competent coaching and a improved offensive line and legitimate wide receivers, Darnold has the opportunity to "shove it up our butts?"   

For my money, we run it back one more year with Sam Darnold!

I love the idea of going all in with Sammy. Normally, I wouldn't think of making a move until we were certain Sammy was no go. However, because this is Deshaun Watson a PROVEN commodity in a QB driven league. I believe we MUST entertain the idea of getting him. He's too good to simply ignore entertaining the idea. And make no mistake, Saleh and JD's silence is very telling. If they truly were not interested they would have come out and ended the speculation. I think this speculation could go on until draft night.

[Stark]

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

That is as good of a reason not to go after him as it is to go after him.

We have a bucket of high  picks, build the team then settle your net Qb into a team rich in talent.

Some of the best QB prospects in the league such as josh allen and herbert and mahoomes were not 1 or 2 picks so you can get good QBs without having to trade to #1 or even #2

right, so why is it taking us 50 years to find them... there is a little luck involved and also required that there is a coach, staff and system in place that fits the QB's skill/abilities also. 

I get keeping picks and building the team, honestly do. I won't be surprised if JD were to trade back from 2 and stock up.

I also get that QB is the most important position in professional sports and without one you are more likely to be the JETS than not. 

I know the first retort is, well... Watsons team, they only won 4 games this year... Bill O'Brien, that is all. the moves that man made.... dumb. Watsons Texans won AFC South 2018, 2019 

We do have a bucket of high picks... what are the odds that all of the 1st round picks become top 5 at their position? What are the odds that after we use all the high picks that we get a Mark Sanchez or worse? It seems that most people are assuming we hit on all picks when the odds are not in your favor to do so.

This is easily the most debatable topic for any team especially JETS fans. Because for most of us we scouted QB's like it was our job for the last 20+ years. 

 

Good Luck JD. lol. no matter what you do your going to frustrate half the fan base.

[The Gooch]

5 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

NO MASKS??????

[joewilly12]

21 minutes ago, The Gooch said:

NO MASKS??????

It's not in the ****Official  Deshaunapolooza thread where it belongs. 

No masks required. 

[Jet_Engine1]

6 hours ago, Biggs said:

The risk of keeping Sam is both Saleh and Douglas get fired in 2 years, rinse repeat.  No risk it no biscuit is going to the SB.  

Agrees....

[NYJ1]

7 hours ago, Biggs said:

The risk of keeping Sam is both Saleh and Douglas get fired in 2 years, rinse repeat.  No risk it no biscuit is going to the SB.  

SILLY. Joe Douglas has a 6 year contract. He also has a good draft under his belt. This, for a team that hasn't had a decent draft in over a decade. There's NO way Joe Douglas gets fired in two years. NONE. I also doubt very seriously Robert Saleh gets fired in two years although that could possibly happen if he turned out to be worse than Gase.