The Jets Need to Extend Darnold

[BroadwayRay]

I think the 2020 season has caused a lot of Jets fans to go insane.

[UntouchableCrew]

12 minutes ago, Biggs said:

If Sam and his agent believe Sam Darnold is an elite NFL starting QB why would they give the Jets the ability to tie him up with an open trade clause for 16 million?  If he believes in himself even a little bit he would tell them to pound salt.  

I agree with this and it's the best counterargument -- if Darnold has any faith in himself whatsoever he probably bets on himself and looks to maximize his long term value. You'd almost be worried if he signed it because it means his confidence is shot.

I do think it makes sense for the Jets though.

[56mehl56]

1 minute ago, BroadwayRay said:

I think 2020  has caused a lot of people to go insane.

Fixed it for you 

[FidelioJet]

42 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

The responses in this thread are interesting because it becomes very clear very quickly who reads and who doesn't.

"There isn't a scenario from those 4 where the Jets aren't meaningfully better off having extended Sam."

[BroadwayRay]

4 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Fixed it for you 

Yeah, that works.

[Bleedin Green]

6 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Ha, me too. 

Honestly, it's been fun watching people lose their mind at the thread title

I get your point in theory, but it's heavily dependent on giving way too much benefit of the doubt to this stupid team.

The same argument could've been made to the extension they gave Sanchez after the swing and miss on Manning, but we saw how that all turned out.  It instead led to Tebow/McElroy, which led to Geno, which led to Hackenberg, which led to passing on Watson and Mahomes for a safety.

I know we'd like to give JD the benefit-of-the-doubt over Tanny/Idzik/Maccagnan, as that's hardly a high bar, but there's still a line.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

This is something slightly similar to what the Colts did with Jacoby Brissett. I'm one that's not into getting Watson. Athough not high on the QBs coming out I wouldn't mind drafting one and have them competing with Darnold or have them take over mid season once they're ready. So either way my plan is to have Darnold on the roster for 2021. If so I wouldn't mind extending him and seeing how he looks with weapons. If he's still trash then we can certainly get out. But like someone mentioned Darnold shouldn't even have faith in this team after going through with 2 years of Gates and JDs one off season to display him with weapons which included having on in Robby who he built chemistry with get away.

[football guy]

I would say that you're definitely onto something

[T0mShane]

Just now, football guy said:

I would say that you're definitely onto something

[Sperm Edwards]

46 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

No, I'm not crazy. Yes, by the end of this post I think you'll agree with me.

Let's start with Darnold's current situation. 

They need to decide by May 3 whether they're going to exercise his 5th year option, which is currently slated to cost roughly $25M; it's highly unlikely the Jets will exercise it, as things stand (the salary isn't guaranteed for skill, but it's guaranteed for injury; if they exercise it, Darnold sucks and picks up an injury, they'll be on the hook for the whole amount).

I don't think this is true anymore, starting with Darnold's class. It's 100% guaranteed as soon as it's exercised. There is no way they're doing that unless something heavy falls on JD's head.

[kelly]

20 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

I think the 2020 season has caused a lot of Jets fans to go insane.

..why should the 2020 season be any different than ANY other season ?   ?

[Jets Voice of Reason]

I mean, i think you’re discounting the fact that the most likely scenario is he flames out in year 5 and you act as if the dead money is just an acceptable outcome which is just wholly unnecessary. 

if the outcomes had balanced probablity on either side and it is largely unknown, your plan mitigates risk in an acceptable way. But in reality, the probabilities aren’t even, we’ve got about three seasons worth of data, and you’re just suggesting digging deeper on a likely sunk cost in the low probability that he turns it around. 

[munchmemory]

Without question, Darnold's stats and overall performance as our franchise QB the last three years has, indeed,  earned him a substantial extension.

 

[bitonti]

From the desk of Jimmy sexton 

Dictated but not read 

[Greenbloodblitz]

@Doggin94it I appreciate the effort you put into this thread and I won't jump on you for having an opinion and trying to think outside the box. You have some very valid points and some smart theories. Good read.

The fact that you came up with the way keeping or trading Darnold will still benefit our team, is probably what JD is doing right now.

That's good football talk and a hell of a lot better than saying Darnold's a bust. Keeping our options open is a smart move. Keeping value on the player and the draft pick if you do decide to trade him is good business.

Well thought-out and good stuff.

[football guy]

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Lol read his whole post. Jets will probably sign an "extension" in order to promote flexibility and allow themselves to trade him/an out if things don't go swimmingly next year. If things do go swimmingly, they would have him under contract/no need for option or franchise tag 

[Sperm Edwards]

19 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I agree with this and it's the best counterargument -- if Darnold has any faith in himself whatsoever he probably bets on himself and looks to maximize his long term value. You'd almost be worried if he signed it because it means his confidence is shot.

I do think it makes sense for the Jets though.

This 100%.

@Doggin94it 

You've not left much upside for Darnold, presuming he believes in himself and won't want to already sell himself short at age 23. He's not cutting his own balls off to lock himself into a lower-base, 4-year extension with only 1 guaranteed season, unless there are heavy incentives in it whereby he can earn an additional $10MM/year more if he's playing at a FQB level. Of course in that case it removes the Jets' very incentive for taking on this extra risk in the first place. May as well just do the 5th year option, which would be a shocker as it is.

So it's an idea that works in theory only, but wouldn't/couldn't actually happen imo. On one hand it sounds like the potential upside of extending Sanchez when MT did, thinking we're getting in cheaper at 75% of a top 5 FQB's deal. Except this is a much bigger relative discount than when Sanchez was extended - the top QBs now get $35-45MM per - but you’re giving him only half the number of fully guaranteed seasons that MT gave Sanchez.

Darnold is definitely not locking himself in for 4 years at $21MM/year, with no incentives to earn much more, where you're only going to guarantee the first season alone. If you want him for a discount with only a 1 year guarantee, what that looks like is a 1 year contract.

If they do keep Darnold, without signing a Watson/Stafford or drafting a QB in round 1, they're still going to have to sign a Brissett/Trubisky type veteran at $12-16MM give or take, in case Darnold's lousy again, and there goes the supposed savings.

I get the idea to hope to profit - locking him in at a lower cost based on his bust years, since it'd obviously be more expensive to lock him up after he's turned his career around - but it's unrealistic. He's better off on a 1 year prove-it deal with a playoff offense that's shedding cash. Letdown that he's been, it's good enough to (at worst) bounce around the league as a backup for a decade like Clemens, Geno, and others.

[HessStation]

Part of me gets wide eyed thinking about the haul they could get trading down and taking non-qb players to surround Darnold with....but I just can’t get there with him. His ceiling at this point is to be a solid game manager with time to grow into it. He just doesn’t have the “it” factor imo. I can barely think of any drive this year I was like, yessss Darnold just put the team on his back there. Not one ever really. Like even when they had nice drives it was ok, couple nice play designs and a throw here or there but nothing where he made something out of nothing. Meh

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

Statistically speaking he ranked lower than some of the QB's teams dragged off the street that we never heard of. 

Those WFT and LA Ram QBs come to mind.. They rocked compared to Sam

[rangerous]

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

No, I'm not crazy. Yes, by the end of this post I think you'll agree with me.

Let's start with Darnold's current situation. 

For 2021, the Jets will be paying Darnold $4,774,685 in cash; he has a 10M cap hit but the difference is in his prorated signing bonus. They need to decide by May 3 whether they're going to exercise his 5th year option, which is currently slated to cost roughly $25M; it's highly unlikely the Jets will exercise it, as things stand (the salary isn't guaranteed for skill, but it's guaranteed for injury; if they exercise it, Darnold sucks and picks up an injury, they'll be on the hook for the whole amount).

In other words: Darnold has relatively little cash coming in this year (opportunity for the Jets) and a wide range of outcomes (opportunity for both). If the Jets end up starting him this year and he does well, he'll end up earning 25M or more per year on a long term deal. If they start him and he plays poorly, he'll be lucky to get a mid-sized backup QB contract on a 1 year deal, in the 3-5MAPY range. If they trade him, or bring in another QB and keep him as a backup, he's likely looking at something similar.

What might an extension look like?

OK, after this section I'll get into why a deal like this would make sense from the perspective of both parties, but to really understand that, you need to figure out what a deal could reasonably be expected to look like:

How about a 4-year, $84M extension, at 21M per year. For context, that would make Sam the 20th-highest paid QB in the NFL, this year, tied with Teddy Bridgewater. That's probably where he'll stay after all is said and done next year; Rivers, Brisset, and Jimmy G will likely come off that list, while Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will likely get big-dollar extensions this offseason. Here's the key: while the new money kicks in for the 2022 season, you give Sam a 16M signing bonus and no guaranteed salary beyond that, and convert his current guaranteed roster bonus (roughly 3.5M) to guaranteed 2021 salary. So you have salaries of 17M/yr in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and his cap hit goes up by only 3.2M in 2021. And you agree that his 2022 and 2023 salaries become fully guaranteed if he's on the team by a designated date in 2022 - say the day after the start of the league year.

Why does this work for Sam?

A deal like this might appeal to Darnold and his agent because it locks in a big-money payment right now that Sam may never otherwise get access to; if he signs this deal, starts, and is terrible, he gets 16M in cash for this year and then gets cut before his extension kicks in; if he turns it down and that happens, he'll never see anything like that kind of guaranteed money again. Meanwhile, the downside risk to Darnold on a deal like this is actually pretty minimal. The middle of the QB market right now - the No. 11-20 contracts ranges from 21M (Bridgewater) to 29.5M (Tannehill). Yes, markets inflate, but there's going to be some contraction with the Covid economics and a reasonable positive outcome for Darnold - what a "good year" might look like, meaning a jump to league average or slightly better next year - would probably net him a deal in the 25M/year range. So net-net, his downside is he gives up about 4M per year to lock in a 16M signing bonus right now - and it's a short enough deal that he can cash in again as a relatively young veteran in 4 years.  (Of course, if Sam goes out of his mind and plays like an elite QB, he's giving up way more than that. But that's not a realistic probability he or his agent should be counting on). And with the subsequent guarantee, if he does well this year, he ends up with 2 years of fully guaranteed salary; if he doesn't, he's released early in the FA process. Bottom line, the upside (that signing bonus) seems worth the downside risk.

Does that mean this is a structure Sam would leap at, and definitely agree to? Of course not. But it would at least force him to make a decision; it's a reasonable offer he might (maybe should) take.

Why does this work for the Jets?

OK, but why should the Jets want to do this? Because it gives them the most important thing right now: options. Right now, the Jets have 3 or 4 possible futures at QB, depending on how you count them: 

(1) Run it back with Sam, see what happens

(2) Trade for Deshaun Watson or Matt Stafford, trade Sam

(3/4) Draft a rookie QB, and either trade Sam or keep him as competition.

There isn't a scenario from those 4 where the Jets aren't meaningfully better off having extended Sam. Obviously, if they run it back with Sam, or keep him to compete with a rookie, the extension helps. If Sam develops, you have him signed long-term at a relative discount, congrats. If he doesn't, you cut him after 2021, and all it cost you was money and the 12.8M dead money hit in 2022. But with a rookie QB on a rookie deal, you can absorb that cap hit.

How about if they trade Sam? If they trade Sam, the extension increases his value to the acquiring team substantially. Now the acquiring team gets Sam for just the 4.7M in 2020 cash, and if Sam pans out for them, they have him on a team-friendly deal with cap hits at 17M/year for four years; if he doesn't, no harm, no foul, they can cut him at no loss. So whether it's after trading for a veteran or drafting a rookie, extending Sam probably brings the Jets back more in value than they'd get for him on his current contract, where the acquiring team will have to sign Sam to a big money deal if all goes well. And the only cost to the Jets is another 11.3M in extra dead cap from trading him (as currently structured, Sam counts 9.8M on the cap. With this deal, he would count 21M if traded - 16M in accelerated signing bonus from the extension, plus the 5M in signing bonus proration from his first deal).  

Bottom line, the only thing an extension would cost the Jets is cap space, which they have enough of, and it would put them in a better strategic position moving forward. It's the right move

 

how about letting saleh and douglas and lefleur evaluate darnold first. if they think he's the guy then this would be a good deal.  failing that it's just throwing good money after bad.  and regardless of the money if he's traded it means he's just not that good.

[Skeet Ulrich]

The Jaguars did the same thing with Blake Bortles.

Hint: It did not end well.

[NYJ1]

2 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

No, I'm not crazy. Yes, by the end of this post I think you'll agree with me.

Let's start with Darnold's current situation. 

For 2021, the Jets will be paying Darnold $4,774,685 in cash; he has a 10M cap hit but the difference is in his prorated signing bonus. They need to decide by May 3 whether they're going to exercise his 5th year option, which is currently slated to cost roughly $25M; it's highly unlikely the Jets will exercise it, as things stand (the salary isn't guaranteed for skill, but it's guaranteed for injury; if they exercise it, Darnold sucks and picks up an injury, they'll be on the hook for the whole amount).

In other words: Darnold has relatively little cash coming in this year (opportunity for the Jets) and a wide range of outcomes (opportunity for both). If the Jets end up starting him this year and he does well, he'll end up earning 25M or more per year on a long term deal. If they start him and he plays poorly, he'll be lucky to get a mid-sized backup QB contract on a 1 year deal, in the 3-5MAPY range. If they trade him, or bring in another QB and keep him as a backup, he's likely looking at something similar.

What might an extension look like?

OK, after this section I'll get into why a deal like this would make sense from the perspective of both parties, but to really understand that, you need to figure out what a deal could reasonably be expected to look like:

How about a 4-year, $84M extension, at 21M per year. For context, that would make Sam the 20th-highest paid QB in the NFL, this year, tied with Teddy Bridgewater. That's probably where he'll stay after all is said and done next year; Rivers, Brisset, and Jimmy G will likely come off that list, while Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will likely get big-dollar extensions this offseason. Here's the key: while the new money kicks in for the 2022 season, you give Sam a 16M signing bonus and no guaranteed salary beyond that, and convert his current guaranteed roster bonus (roughly 3.5M) to guaranteed 2021 salary. So you have salaries of 17M/yr in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and his cap hit goes up by only 3.2M in 2021. And you agree that his 2022 and 2023 salaries become fully guaranteed if he's on the team by a designated date in 2022 - say the day after the start of the league year.

Why does this work for Sam?

A deal like this might appeal to Darnold and his agent because it locks in a big-money payment right now that Sam may never otherwise get access to; if he signs this deal, starts, and is terrible, he gets 16M in cash for this year and then gets cut before his extension kicks in; if he turns it down and that happens, he'll never see anything like that kind of guaranteed money again. Meanwhile, the downside risk to Darnold on a deal like this is actually pretty minimal. The middle of the QB market right now - the No. 11-20 contracts ranges from 21M (Bridgewater) to 29.5M (Tannehill). Yes, markets inflate, but there's going to be some contraction with the Covid economics and a reasonable positive outcome for Darnold - what a "good year" might look like, meaning a jump to league average or slightly better next year - would probably net him a deal in the 25M/year range. So net-net, his downside is he gives up about 4M per year to lock in a 16M signing bonus right now - and it's a short enough deal that he can cash in again as a relatively young veteran in 4 years.  (Of course, if Sam goes out of his mind and plays like an elite QB, he's giving up way more than that. But that's not a realistic probability he or his agent should be counting on). And with the subsequent guarantee, if he does well this year, he ends up with 2 years of fully guaranteed salary; if he doesn't, he's released early in the FA process. Bottom line, the upside (that signing bonus) seems worth the downside risk.

Does that mean this is a structure Sam would leap at, and definitely agree to? Of course not. But it would at least force him to make a decision; it's a reasonable offer he might (maybe should) take.

Why does this work for the Jets?

OK, but why should the Jets want to do this? Because it gives them the most important thing right now: options. Right now, the Jets have 3 or 4 possible futures at QB, depending on how you count them: 

(1) Run it back with Sam, see what happens

(2) Trade for Deshaun Watson or Matt Stafford, trade Sam

(3/4) Draft a rookie QB, and either trade Sam or keep him as competition.

There isn't a scenario from those 4 where the Jets aren't meaningfully better off having extended Sam. Obviously, if they run it back with Sam, or keep him to compete with a rookie, the extension helps. If Sam develops, you have him signed long-term at a relative discount, congrats. If he doesn't, you cut him after 2021, and all it cost you was money and the 12.8M dead money hit in 2022. But with a rookie QB on a rookie deal, you can absorb that cap hit.

How about if they trade Sam? If they trade Sam, the extension increases his value to the acquiring team substantially. Now the acquiring team gets Sam for just the 4.7M in 2020 cash, and if Sam pans out for them, they have him on a team-friendly deal with cap hits at 17M/year for four years; if he doesn't, no harm, no foul, they can cut him at no loss. So whether it's after trading for a veteran or drafting a rookie, extending Sam probably brings the Jets back more in value than they'd get for him on his current contract, where the acquiring team will have to sign Sam to a big money deal if all goes well. And the only cost to the Jets is another 11.3M in extra dead cap from trading him (as currently structured, Sam counts 9.8M on the cap. With this deal, he would count 21M if traded - 16M in accelerated signing bonus from the extension, plus the 5M in signing bonus proration from his first deal).  

Bottom line, the only thing an extension would cost the Jets is cap space, which they have enough of, and it would put them in a better strategic position moving forward. It's the right move

 

What it really all boils down to is how much confidence Sammy has in himself? I think he believes he can turn into what the Jets are hoping. I'm just not sure he believes the Jets can give him a decent opportunity? And of course, he would never utter the words but you know he's got to be thinking about it. That's an obvious private joke in the Darnold household. Although I do think the Jets have a good GM now, in years past the incompetence is obvious. Darnold is an educated young man. He's not stupid. If he believes the Jets can give him a decent opportunity to advance his play, and I think he probably does, he'll stay (if the Jets do want him) and try his hand at getting that 5th year option. He could just tell them right now that he'd rather go and try his hand with a team that knows what they're doing? In that case, I believe the Jets would accommodate his request and trade him?

But for me, the biggest problem here is the JETS. They have shown to be incompetent a$$holes and I'm sure that problem weighs heavily on Sammys mind.

[Charlie Brown]

1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

It's almost as though the answer is in the initial post. Under the section headed "Why does this work for the Jets?"

Have you considered reading it?

Hmmmmmmm perhaps I disagree with the OP, that is all. 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, football guy said:

Lol read his whole post. Jets will probably sign an "extension" in order to promote flexibility and allow themselves to trade him/an out if things don't go swimmingly next year. If things do go swimmingly, they would have him under contract/no need for option or franchise tag 

Nah, unless you already know something.

The biggest gamble of an "extension" would just be exercising the 5th yr option, which has to be considered a long shot where we sit today.

Second-biggest gamble they'll do, at this point is the most likely gamble if he's even back at all, is keep him for one more year only, to see if the light goes on. If it does, then keeping him beyond that point ends with them tagging him while they work out an extension at worst, or trying to reach an extension with him during the season so it doesn't come to that.

[Philc1]

Extend Sam now on the cheap and then there’s no issue next season when he improves with Gase gone and an improved roster

 

this goes against everything the people who know everything keep screaming but oh well

[Philc1]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

Nah, unless you already know something.

The biggest gamble of an "extension" would just be exercising the 5th yr option, which has to be considered a long shot where we sit today.

Second-biggest gamble they'll do, at this point is the most likely gamble if he's even back at all, is keep him for one more year only, to see if the light goes on. If it does, then keeping him beyond that point ends with them tagging him while they work out an extension at worst, or trying to reach an extension with him during the season so it doesn't come to that.

You could extend him now for 3 yrs $18 mil or have to franchise him at a crazy number next offseason or try to negotiate a $100 million deal after we blow our cap space and the cap has decreased by $20 million+

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

You could extend him now for 3 yrs $18 mil or have to franchise him at a crazy number next offseason or try to negotiate a $100 million deal after we blow our cap space and the cap has decreased by $20 million+

No, you really can't. That's my point. 

[joewilly12]

22 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Those WFT and LA Ram QBs come to mind.. They rocked compared to Sam

What about that QB Heineke Washington Football Team

[32EBoozer]

4 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

What about that QB Heineke Washington Football Team

That’s who I was talking about. And the Rams Qb who was on our PS

[joewilly12]

14 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

That’s who I was talking about. And the Rams Qb who was on our PS

Oh ok and what about SF Nick Mullens 

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Lol read his whole post. Jets will probably sign an "extension" in order to promote flexibility and allow themselves to trade him/an out if things don't go swimmingly next year. If things do go swimmingly, they would have him under contract/no need for option or franchise tag 

I read his post. 

It still doesn't make any sense to extend Darnold. It's a bad idea. 

They don't have to do anything special to "allow themselves to trade him" . . . they can just trade him this offseason. If they want to keep him, let him come back for his 4th year and prove himself. Again, history tells us that the chances Darnold turns it around here are low.

There's simply no reason to invest any more money in a player who has been bad for 3 years. None. 

[slimjasi]

50 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Second-biggest gamble they'll do, at this point is the most likely gamble if he's even back at all, is keep him for one more year only, to see if the light goes on. If it does, then keeping him beyond that point ends with them tagging him while they work out an extension at worst, or trying to reach an extension with him during the season so it doesn't come to that.

Exactly this

[peebag]

2 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I agree with this and it's the best counterargument -- if Darnold has any faith in himself whatsoever he probably bets on himself and looks to maximize his long term value. You'd almost be worried if he signed it because it means his confidence is shot.

I do think it makes sense for the Jets though.

Me too.

 

[jetstream23]

Extend Sam.

Buy call options on $GME, $NOK.

Tip your waiters.

That is all.

 

 

[Shockwave]

4 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

No, I'm not crazy. Yes, by the end of this post I think you'll agree with me.

Let's start with Darnold's current situation. 

For 2021, the Jets will be paying Darnold $4,774,685 in cash; he has a 10M cap hit but the difference is in his prorated signing bonus. They need to decide by May 3 whether they're going to exercise his 5th year option, which is currently slated to cost roughly $25M; it's highly unlikely the Jets will exercise it, as things stand (the salary isn't guaranteed for skill, but it's guaranteed for injury; if they exercise it, Darnold sucks and picks up an injury, they'll be on the hook for the whole amount).

In other words: Darnold has relatively little cash coming in this year (opportunity for the Jets) and a wide range of outcomes (opportunity for both). If the Jets end up starting him this year and he does well, he'll end up earning 25M or more per year on a long term deal. If they start him and he plays poorly, he'll be lucky to get a mid-sized backup QB contract on a 1 year deal, in the 3-5MAPY range. If they trade him, or bring in another QB and keep him as a backup, he's likely looking at something similar.

What might an extension look like?

OK, after this section I'll get into why a deal like this would make sense from the perspective of both parties, but to really understand that, you need to figure out what a deal could reasonably be expected to look like:

How about a 4-year, $84M extension, at 21M per year. For context, that would make Sam the 20th-highest paid QB in the NFL, this year, tied with Teddy Bridgewater. That's probably where he'll stay after all is said and done next year; Rivers, Brisset, and Jimmy G will likely come off that list, while Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will likely get big-dollar extensions this offseason. Here's the key: while the new money kicks in for the 2022 season, you give Sam a 16M signing bonus and no guaranteed salary beyond that, and convert his current guaranteed roster bonus (roughly 3.5M) to guaranteed 2021 salary. So you have salaries of 17M/yr in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, and his cap hit goes up by only 3.2M in 2021. And you agree that his 2022 and 2023 salaries become fully guaranteed if he's on the team by a designated date in 2022 - say the day after the start of the league year.

Why does this work for Sam?

A deal like this might appeal to Darnold and his agent because it locks in a big-money payment right now that Sam may never otherwise get access to; if he signs this deal, starts, and is terrible, he gets 16M in cash for this year and then gets cut before his extension kicks in; if he turns it down and that happens, he'll never see anything like that kind of guaranteed money again. Meanwhile, the downside risk to Darnold on a deal like this is actually pretty minimal. The middle of the QB market right now - the No. 11-20 contracts ranges from 21M (Bridgewater) to 29.5M (Tannehill). Yes, markets inflate, but there's going to be some contraction with the Covid economics and a reasonable positive outcome for Darnold - what a "good year" might look like, meaning a jump to league average or slightly better next year - would probably net him a deal in the 25M/year range. So net-net, his downside is he gives up about 4M per year to lock in a 16M signing bonus right now - and it's a short enough deal that he can cash in again as a relatively young veteran in 4 years.  (Of course, if Sam goes out of his mind and plays like an elite QB, he's giving up way more than that. But that's not a realistic probability he or his agent should be counting on). And with the subsequent guarantee, if he does well this year, he ends up with 2 years of fully guaranteed salary; if he doesn't, he's released early in the FA process. Bottom line, the upside (that signing bonus) seems worth the downside risk.

Does that mean this is a structure Sam would leap at, and definitely agree to? Of course not. But it would at least force him to make a decision; it's a reasonable offer he might (maybe should) take.

Why does this work for the Jets?

OK, but why should the Jets want to do this? Because it gives them the most important thing right now: options. Right now, the Jets have 3 or 4 possible futures at QB, depending on how you count them: 

(1) Run it back with Sam, see what happens

(2) Trade for Deshaun Watson or Matt Stafford, trade Sam

(3/4) Draft a rookie QB, and either trade Sam or keep him as competition.

There isn't a scenario from those 4 where the Jets aren't meaningfully better off having extended Sam. Obviously, if they run it back with Sam, or keep him to compete with a rookie, the extension helps. If Sam develops, you have him signed long-term at a relative discount, congrats. If he doesn't, you cut him after 2021, and all it cost you was money and the 12.8M dead money hit in 2022. But with a rookie QB on a rookie deal, you can absorb that cap hit.

How about if they trade Sam? If they trade Sam, the extension increases his value to the acquiring team substantially. Now the acquiring team gets Sam for just the 4.7M in 2020 cash, and if Sam pans out for them, they have him on a team-friendly deal with cap hits at 17M/year for four years; if he doesn't, no harm, no foul, they can cut him at no loss. So whether it's after trading for a veteran or drafting a rookie, extending Sam probably brings the Jets back more in value than they'd get for him on his current contract, where the acquiring team will have to sign Sam to a big money deal if all goes well. And the only cost to the Jets is another 11.3M in extra dead cap from trading him (as currently structured, Sam counts 9.8M on the cap. With this deal, he would count 21M if traded - 16M in accelerated signing bonus from the extension, plus the 5M in signing bonus proration from his first deal).  

Bottom line, the only thing an extension would cost the Jets is cap space, which they have enough of, and it would put them in a better strategic position moving forward. It's the right move

 

Doggin, As usual you are prob a-little too intelligent for most of us. Great post.  

We could surely debate the structure. But for the Jets to go out all offseason and:

1 - Get Darnold Weapons

2- Get him the best Offensive System on the planet in SF's system. 

3- Pass on QB's in the draft 

and not have him signed to a team friendly contract that we could get out of would be absolutely financially irresponsible by our FO. That is how you end up in a Jared Goff situation. 

If we actually are sticking with Sam they better have a short term deal announced before the draft. Last thing in the world we need is for him do have a decent season and were stuck Franchising him/paying him 40m a year then he sucks the year after.