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Trade Down.... But for Trey Lance


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38 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Well you re not going to trade down if you love one of the QBs, you just take him.  However if you trade down and suddenly say I can't believe that guy fell that far.

The other thing this could set up is a trade down twice (which is what i have been doing in my mocks often)

If you don't love a QB you shouldn't take the QB.  At least in the first round.  Sure, roll the dice in the 3rd or 4th - take a guy let him sit for a couple of years and see how it plays out.  Except we already threw away a pick last on that.  

But if you're taking a QB in the first you're handing your franchise over to him. 

They'll fall in love with one of them and they'll take him 2.

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I know there are no guarantees but if we could get the Lions to trade their 7th, and 21st along with other draft picks, for # 2, I would strongly consider doing it and drafting Trey Lance. The key is

I like this as well.   A trade down will give us a lot of options but a trade down and get a QB prospect even if he needs seasoning is a decent idea. Heck for all we know a trade down and Fields

The idea of drafting a one-year starter at 2 is terrifying, but Josh Allen is going to finish second in MVP voting, so who ******* knows who's good anymore

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6 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Darnold will be gone before the draft or they're not taking a QB.  There's no middle ground there. The last thing the Jets need right now is a QB controversy.  

You take the QB you like the most at 2 and don't look back.  It really isn't complicated.  It's the smart, logical move.

In your opinion.  You have no idea what they plan to do. They might trade for Watson for all you know lol.  Lets not be so dogmatic in our arguments. 

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5 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

2 as a pick is worth a hell of a lot more than 7.  That would a straight McCaggnan move.  Unless you just could not make a deal, you trade back.    Yes I do agree if you like one that much more than the others you just take him but if all things are equal, plus you already have a 23 year old former 3rd pick of the draft at quarterback, there is no need to "reach" for one at 2.   We don't have to make moves out of desperation.  We need to be strategic about this. 

I agree with most of this, but a couple of quibbles.  How is that a Maccagnan move?  I get that he reached a couple of times, but it is QB.  If you find a guy who is even a reasonable starter he is well worth #2 overall.  I like your trade down idea because I mistrust everybody, but like them all.  That is the only way a deal like this makes any sense.  I would prefer  my GM be able to rate these guys enough to trust one..  The other thing I disagree with is that there is no need to "reach" for a QB at 2.  I know that  these guys are paying him lip service, but the odds are that they know that need a QB at 2.  I mean, they have seen Darnold play, right? 

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Just now, #27TheDominator said:

I agree with most of this, but a couple of quibbles.  How is that a Maccagnan move?  I get that he reached a couple of times, but it is QB.  If you find a guy who is even a reasonable starter he is well worth #2 overall.  I like your trade down idea because I mistrust everybody, but like them all.  That is the only way a deal like this makes any sense.  I would prefer  my GM be able to rate these guys enough to trust one..  The other thing I disagree with is that there is no need to "reach" for a QB at 2.  I know that  these guys are paying him lip service, but the odds are that they know that need a QB at 2.  I mean, they have seen Darnold play, right? 

I guess I mean that he probably would not even explore the possibility of trading down.  He was not a "think outside the box" kind of guy.  

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Just now, JetBlue said:

In your opinion.  You have no idea what they plan to do. They might trade for Watson for all you know lol.  Lets not be so dogmatic in our arguments. 

This is really the only logical way to see it.

Watson is staying where is (would love to have him but Texas will keep him)

Darnold is gone

Jets are taking a QB at 2

This is as close to a certainty as can be with something with this many variable.  Sure I could be wrong, as we still really know very little about JD.  But from everything I've seen so far this is the way it'll play out.

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1 hour ago, JetBlue said:

I know there are no guarantees but if we could get the Lions to trade their 7th, and 21st along with other draft picks, for # 2, I would strongly consider doing it and drafting Trey Lance. The key is knowing he probably needs to sit for a year.  We could bring back Darnold and let them compete and then trade Darnold next year.  If Darnold show signs of becoming the player we thought he would be, we could always turn around and trade Lance.  Either way we would have our franchise quarterback and the capital to build around them.   If Lance is gone at 7, take Pitts or best available offensive player (Chase, Smith etc.) and roll with Sam for the year.   Either way you look at it, we can add some serious talent.  If Sam is not the answer, we will have Lance waiting in the wings and ready to take over by mid season or next.  

If we are drafting a QB, it should be Fields or Wilson. We have the #2 pick. Lance from the reviews on him I have read sounds very similar  to Darnold. 

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Just now, FidelioJet said:

This is really the only logical way to see it.

Watson is staying where is (would love to have him but Texas will keep him)

Darnold is gone

Jets are taking a QB at 2

This is as close to a certainty as can be with something with this many variable.  Sure I could be wrong, as we still really know very little about JD.  But from everything I've seen so far this is the way it'll play out.

Hey I'm personally okay with that scenario, but we shall see.  A lot can happen between now and the draft.  I mean Wilson could come in at 6 feet tall, or Fields could bomb in interviews etc.  I think JD will play it close to the vest and unlike previous regimes, he will keep his options open and keep everyone guessing as to what he plans to do.  

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1 hour ago, riggy001 said:

I could see doing this, add picks by trading to 7, and then select Lance, However, i would not keep Darnold, and would roll with lance from day 1. Between trading down from 2, and dealing Sam, you should get several more picks to surround Lance with more offense

Yeah I don't see that either. There is one precedent - Rivers/Brees - but Brees wasn't as highly touted as Darnold. He was only a 2nd round pick as a rookie; he wasn't going to command 2nd round value 3 seasons in, with his height already considered a handicap. 

If they take a QB in the top 10 (or really, anywhere in round 1) then Darnold is traded for a deal worked out before the draft. 

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3 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

If we are drafting a QB, it should be Fields or Wilson. We have the #2 pick. Lance from the reviews on him I have read sounds very similar  to Darnold. 

He is absolutely NOTHING like Darnold.  This guy had one of the greatest college football seasons in history and had like ZERO interceptions.  Darnold was a turnover machine in college and that has carried over to the NFL.  The knock on Lance was him not playing this year so he needs more reps and game experience so he is definitely a risk.  That is why he needs to sit for a while and get some serious coaching, but his tools are undeniable.  

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Just now, JetBlue said:

Hey I'm personally okay with that scenario, but we shall see.  A lot can happen between now and the draft.  I mean Wilson could come in at 6 feet tall, or Fields could bomb in interviews etc.  I think JD will play it close to the vest and unlike previous regimes, he will keep his options open and keep everyone guessing as to what he plans to do.  

Agreed.  JD will keep his options open as long as he can....For sure.

Ultimately though, I'm pretty confident we end up taking a QB at 2.  Which one, I don't know - that'll be on JD, Saleh and the scouts to pick the one they like the best.  

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3 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

He is absolutely NOTHING like Darnold.  This guy had one of the greatest college football seasons in history and had like ZERO interceptions.  Darnold was a turnover machine in college and that has carried over to the NFL.  The knock on Lance was him not playing this year so he needs more reps and game experience so he is definitely a risk.  That is why he needs to sit for a while and get some serious coaching, but his tools are undeniable.  

What I read is his downfield accuracy  is not that good and I read it today on this forum. That sounds an awful lot like Darnold to me

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1 hour ago, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

This is a mistake on so many levels:

1) If the Jets trade down, no QB they want may be left on the board

2) Lance has virtually no college experience. History shows that lack of game experience in college is a predictor for failure as a QB in the NFL.  One year of college starts makes Lance a likely bust.

3) If he sits for a year, it delays the rebuild a year as well

 

History shows that Texas Tech QBs suck.  Before Mahomes everybody said that Air Raid QBs could not transition to the NFL.  Mahomes and Mayfield seem to be doing fairly well.  By the end of his rookie season Kyler Murray had started as many games in NFL as he had in college.  He seems to be making the jump pretty well. I think these rules are overstated, particularly when you are dealing with A+++ athletes like Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Lance.   

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7 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

If we are drafting a QB, it should be Fields or Wilson. We have the #2 pick. Lance from the reviews on him I have read sounds very similar  to Darnold. 

A lot can change between now and the draft.  JD is not going to commit himself to either of those quarterbacks so early in the process.  And like said in a previous post, Lance is nothing like Darnold.  If anything he is a poor mans Mahomes. 

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7 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

A lot can change between now and the draft.  JD is not going to commit himself to either of those quarterbacks so early in the process.  And like said in a previous post, Lance is nothing like Darnold.  If anything he is a poor mans Mahomes. 

His deep-ball accuracy needs to improve, though. He has a bad habit of sinking his weight before he throws, which impacts his placement. 

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27 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Darnold will be gone before the draft or they're not taking a QB.  There's no middle ground there. The last thing the Jets need right now is a QB controversy.  

You take the QB you like the most at 2 and don't look back.  It really isn't complicated.  It's the smart, logical move.

I don't know. Seahawks had just signed Matt Flynn who was supposed to be their QB. Drafted Russell Wilson and he won the job. Never looked back. Don't see why Jets couldn't do the same with Sam and a rookie QB like Lance. Can't tell me Seahawks knew Wilson was the answer or they would have never waited until round 3 to pick him.

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6 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

His deep-ball accuracy needs to improve, though. He has a bad habit of sinking his weight before he throws, which impacts his placement. 

Do you think that deep ball accuracy is Darnold's big problem in the NFL?  I'm not sure it is top 10.  Watch this kid play.  My issues are that he seems a better fit for Greg Roman than LaFleur, and that most of his highlights seem to be him running around and launching it.  I'd prefer some more plannied drop and rip it, but that is a common issue when you are watching highlights.  This kid is a beast with the ball in his hands.  Not a "cow on ice." 

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11 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

A lot can change between now and the draft.  JD is not going to commit himself to either of those quarterbacks so early in the process.  And like said in a previous post, Lance is nothing like Darnold.  If anything he is a poor mans Mahomes. 

An extremely poor homeless man living on the street version of Mahommes.   

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1 minute ago, Jethead said:

I don't know. Seahawks had just signed Matt Flynn who was supposed to be their QB. Drafted Russell Wilson and he won the job. Never looked back. Don't see why Jets couldn't do the same with Sam and a rookie QB like Lance. Can't tell me Seahawks knew Wilson was the answer or they would have never waited until round 3 to pick him.

Correct.  The Jets can take a 3rd round QB and keep Sam.  No problem there.  People are talking about taking Lance at #7. 

You must see the difference between 7 overall and 3rd round.

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2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Do you think that deep ball accuracy is Darnold's big problem in the NFL?  I'm not sure it is top 10.  Watch this kid play.  My issues are that he seems a better fit for Greg Roman than LaFleur, and that most of his highlights seem to be him running around and launching it.  I'd prefer some more plannied drop and rip it, but that is commong when you are watching highlights.

Sam's deep ball accuracy is about as inconsistent  as the pavement in NYC.

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4 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Correct.  The Jets can take a 3rd round QB and keep Sam.  No problem there.  People are talking about taking Lance at #7. 

You must see the difference between 7 overall and 3rd round.

FL or Bama QB with 23rd pick then. It's a crapshoot for any of these kids. None of them are locks.

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There are things I like about Trey Lance, and there are things I dislike about him. But the talent potential is there. So if we take him I won't be upset.

But I'd rather trade down and take Lance than stay put at 2 and take Wilson

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1 minute ago, More Cowbell said:

What I read is his downfield accuracy  is not that good and I read it today on this forum. That sounds an awful lot like Darnold to me

Not sure what you are reading but perhaps you should do some watching.  His down field accuracy is not an issue at all.  If you are referring to the video that I posted, it was about one pass that he put too much air under.  If anything he needs more experience in reading defenses, but that is true of most your quarterbacks.   I also am more interested in seeing him throwing more mid range passes.  

Here is another nice analysis - 

 

I don't see any issue with him throwing the deep pass... do you? 

 

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20 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

His deep-ball accuracy needs to improve, though. He has a bad habit of sinking his weight before he throws, which impacts his placement. 

I don't see any issues... do you?  Remember all the negatives they said about Josh Allen... Get this kid the right coaching and you have a star.  

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In order to trade 7 & 21 to the Jets, wouldn't the Lions first need the 21st pick.  I guess the assumption is that they send Stafford to the Colts for 21, but they don't have it as of now. 

That said, I agree with others who have said that if you like a guy enough tot ake at 7, then you like him enough to take at 2 and not risk losing him.

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16 minutes ago, King P said:

There are things I like about Trey Lance, and there are things I dislike about him. But the talent potential is there. So if we take him I won't be upset.

But I'd rather trade down and take Lance than stay put at 2 and take Wilson

My sentiments exactly.  He is not a perfect prospect and that is why he should be available few picks down but his upside is as high as anyone in this draft. 

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4 minutes ago, Lith said:

In order to trade 7 & 21 to the Jets, wouldn't the Lions first need the 21st pick.  I guess the assumption is that they send Stafford to the Colts for 21, but they don't have it as of now. 

That said, I agree with others who have said that if you like a guy enough tot ake at 7, then you like him enough to take at 2 and not risk losing him.

Yes you are correct.  I was looking at a scenario where that is exactly what they did or traded him to another team that needs a quarterback like even Denver.  

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22 minutes ago, Jethead said:

FL or Bama QB with 23rd pick then. It's a crapshoot for any of these kids. None of them are locks.

For me this is the worst case scenario.  I don't much like either of those guys, but I am no QB guru either.  I'm looking for a potential MVP,

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33 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

His deep-ball accuracy needs to improve, though. He has a bad habit of sinking his weight before he throws, which impacts his placement. 

Says who?  Go back and look at his game film.  While you are at it look at the scouting reports on the "accuracy" issues Josh Allen had.  I think we would all like a do over on that draft.  We get our quarterback and have 3 second round picks to build around him.   It is all about the coaching and it appears that for the first time in forever, we just might have the right coaches to develop a young quarterback. 

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10 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The idea of drafting a one-year starter at 2 is terrifying, but Josh Allen is going to finish second in MVP voting, so who ******* knows who's good anymore

Exactly. 

Nobody knows anything. 

Take a shot at a guy you like and don't look back. It would be hard for him to be worse than Darnold has been and you are going to eventually get fired anyway if you don't find a legit QB, so you may as well go for it. 

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2 hours ago, JetBlue said:

I know there are no guarantees but if we could get the Lions to trade their 7th, and 21st along with other draft picks, for # 2, I would strongly consider doing it and drafting Trey Lance. The key is knowing he probably needs to sit for a year.  We could bring back Darnold and let them compete and then trade Darnold next year.  If Darnold show signs of becoming the player we thought he would be, we could always turn around and trade Lance.  Either way we would have our franchise quarterback and the capital to build around them.   If Lance is gone at 7, take Pitts or best available offensive player (Chase, Smith etc.) and roll with Sam for the year.   Either way you look at it, we can add some serious talent.  If Sam is not the answer, we will have Lance waiting in the wings and ready to take over by mid season or next.  

I like the idea of trading down and still have a top 10 pick BUT NOT Trey Lance. The dude has shown me nothing on his game tape. 

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44 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

History shows that Texas Tech QBs suck.  Before Mahomes everybody said that Air Raid QBs could not transition to the NFL.  Mahomes and Mayfield seem to be doing fairly well.  By the end of his rookie season Kyler Murray had started as many games in NFL as he had in college.  He seems to be making the jump pretty well. I think these rules are overstated, particularly when you are dealing with A+++ athletes like Mahomes, Allen, Murray, and Lance.   

Thank you! How many times are we going to miss out on elite talent because "their college teams never produce, or that style doesn't work in the NFL, blah, blah, blah."    This is the reason you trade down for Lance rather than risk a 2 on Wilson or Fields.  If Lance busts, you still got plenty draft capital build your team and even go after another quarterback next year or the year after.  Wilson has also only had one good year, played for that football powerhouse BYU, is a bit undersized and coming off shoulder injuries that might flare up in the future.   Fields seems to be very slow in his decision making and processing, and not sure if that is something that can be rectified, especially in the NFL where everything is happening much faster than in college.   He also played for a school that is notorious for their lack of success in developing NFL caliber quarterbacks.   To me the smartest move is to trade down, get more picks and take Lance.   Now if they feel he will not make past the top 5, then they would have a decision to make.    

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1 minute ago, Thai Jet said:

I like the idea of trading down and still have a top 10 pick BUT NOT Trey Lance. The dude has shown me nothing on his game tape. 

What exactly DIDN'T you see on his tape?  Or was it he ran too much, or level of competition, etc?  

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23 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The idea of drafting a one-year starter at 2 is terrifying, but Josh Allen is going to finish second in MVP voting, so who ******* knows who's good anymore

This!

I’m a fan of Lance but in all honesty, I was also a fan of Darnold, Falk and RG3 over Luck... 😬

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