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Only Two Teams Can Afford Deshaun Watson: Real Trade Offers.


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43 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Exactly. Once a malcontent always a malcontent. Do people really think he is not going to want a big say in coaching scheme and players. Just not the right move for the Jets.

Watson has never been a malcontent, nor is he being one now.  

This is an absurd take.

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Negotiations have officially started for Deshaun Watson with the Texans.  You confirm this simply because rumors of individual teams will start leaking. "The Jets are out". "Chicago is the Favori

So we have to trade them the farm and take on two lousy contracts as well. Totally not worth it. Just how is this team going to fill the massive holes all over the roster? Jets and hous

Nice job..... remember though that Houston would be getting back their 1.3 pick from Miami. Those optics ALONE take Miami out of consideration!! Too funny!

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4 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Way more than 2 teams will try and trade for DeShaun Watson 

Add in the NY Giants. 

Ranking Giants’ top 12 trade assets for possible Texans’ Deshaun Watson deal

Updated 7:15 AM; Today 7:15 AM 
Saquon Barkley

New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) missed most of the 2020 season with a torn ACL.AP

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The moment it became public that Deshaun Watson formally requested a trade from the Houston Texans, fans everywhere began coming up with trade ideas to bring one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks to their favorite team.

For some teams, like the Jets or Dolphins, it’s a more realistic possibility considering the combination of tradable assets and cap space. There are others that wouldn’t broach the subject out of happiness with their current situation (like the Chiefs or Seahawks) and others that probably couldn’t afford it if they wanted to (like the Eagles or Saints).

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That still leaves most of the league in the middle-ground — teams that should at least explore what it would cost. Most agree it will be significant.

 

The Giants are one of the teams in that area. They don’t have a large amount of cap space (they’re currently projected to be $3 million over, but can clear space pretty easily) or draft picks (six this year, with no fifth-round pick).

So outside of draft picks, what do the Giants have to offer?

 

Here’s a look at the 12 players on the Giants’ roster that would carry the most value in any trade, be it with the Texans or another team:

 

12. G Kevin Zeitler: Maybe this is an unfair ranking since Zeitler is a quality starting guard that could certainly help a team in need of offensive line upgrades. But there a few things going against his value. 1. His cost: Zeitler has a $12 million salary in 2021 on the last year of his contract. 2. The Giants might wind up cutting him anyway. 3. Guards in recent years haven’t netted much in trades. The Rams traded a fifth-round pick for Austin Corbett in 2019. That year, the Browns also traded a fifth and sixth for Wyatt Teller, the Patriots traded a fourth for Jermaine Eluemunor (and a sixth), and the Jets traded a fifth for Kelechi Osemele.

 

11. TE Evan Engram: He made his first Pro Bowl this season, and yet his trade value has probably never been lower. That’s true in terms of performance (11 drops, six interceptions when he was targeted in 2020) and contract (Engram is entering the final year of his deal). Still, despite all the errors, Engram clearly has talent and is the sort of player another team could convince themselves they can unlock his potential.

10. S Xavier McKinney: He only played in six games at the end of the season — really four, as the Giants eased him back in for a few weeks — but he was the top-drafted safety last year for a reason. He’s a fun prospect and flashed some of that potential by the end of the year, getting a game-winning interception in Week 17. He’s also on his rookie contract.

 

9. WR Darius Slayton: As long as he’s not the No. 1 receiver, Slayton has shown he can be a productive deep threat. He’s one of only 26 wide receivers with at least 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns combined the last two years, and only four others were drafted within that timeframe. He’s also cheap — Slayton is only due $1.8 million in salary combined over the next two years.

8. WR Sterling Shepard: He has issues staying healthy (10 missed games the last two years) but when he plays, he’s reliable and productive. He’s one of only 25 wide receivers to accumulate at least 300 catches, 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns since 2016, and that’s while playing in fewer games than 19 of those receivers. He did sign a sizable deal recently, but any team that trades for Shepard would only have to pay him around $7 million in 2021, which is a perfectly reasonable price for a productive receiver. He’s only 27 too.

 

7. S Jabrill Peppers: Peppers started to show signs that he was realizing his potential in 2020. It was his best season (91 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 11 pass deflections, one interception), and he should only keep improving. He’s also only 26 and earning a reasonable salary ($6.7 million) in 2021, though it’s the final year of his contract.

 

6. LB Blake Martinez: Inside linebackers don’t typically net significant assets in return, but Martinez is coming off arguably his best all-around season as a pro (151 tackles, three sacks, two forced fumbles, one interception, five pass deflections) and improved significantly in coverage. He’s only 27, and would cost a reasonable $8.12 million to any acquiring team.

 

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5. T Andrew Thomas: Even if most would argue he was the worst of the four highly-drafted tackle prospects from last year (Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills the others), by the end of the season Thomas was showing signs of becoming a player worthy of the fourth overall pick last year. He looks like a potential long-term starter at one of the most important positions, and is under team control for at least four more years.

 

4. QB Daniel Jones: This is a difficult one to place since it’s entirely dependent on how the acquiring team feels about Jones’ potential. He certainly hasn’t shown enough through two years to convince anyone he’s a star-caliber quarterback. Some around the league are much higher on Jones than others. If the acquiring teams values Jones’ potential, an argument could be made to put Jones at the top of this list. Remember: Nick Foles garnered a fourth-round pick just last year. Josh Rosen netted a second AND fifth-round pick in 2019.

However, there are many teams that likely don’t value Jones as much as the Giants do, which puts a significant dent in his value. We split the difference and put him fourth on this list.

 

3. DL Dexter Lawrence: Lawrence showed improvement from his rookie to second season, and his athletic potential, at his size (6-4, 342), is simply tantalizing. Right now he’s more of a run-stopping defensive tackle, but he has the potential to become much more than that. Some around the league view him as a future Pro Bowler, and he’s under team control for three more years.

 

2. RB Saquon Barkley: A year ago, Barkley would’ve been the clear-cut No. 1 on this list. Now, he’s coming off two consecutive injury-plagued seasons, and this time a torn ACL that cost him all but two games. He’s due for a signficant contract extension in the new future, and plays a position that only loses value with each passing year. He’s a unique talent at running back, certainly, and the prospect of building an offense around him would still be a tantalizing prospect for many teams.

 

1. CB James Bradberry: He was that good in his first Giants season. He was an easy Pro Bowl selection and had a case to be named an All-Pro, too. Bradberry is a legitimate shutdown cornerback in an era where not many of those still exist, and his cap hit in 2021 ($13.9 million) is perfectly reasonable considering the season he just completed.

That article is really weak sauce.  When the top two trade chips listed are a RB that is (quoting the article itself) "coming off two consecutive injury-plagued seasons" and a veteran player making 14 mil, it makes a better case for why the Giants can't make a good offer for Watson than why they can.

 

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I would offer 1.2 and 1.23, and Darnold, nothing more.  Watson can veto any trade.  If you are Houston, do you get something for him or do you get nothing and a guy who might decide not to suit up and play?  If he holds out, eventually he'll run out his contract or Houston will cut their losses.  The point is, there's no good reason to think we (or any team) has to come up with a fair trade offer in this scenario. 

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

and then Watson shoots his way out of town year 3 of Saleh 

the dude did it once why wouldn't he do it again? 

because he loves New York so much? 

Great so we get a haul and rebuild again. This is our MO anyways, may as well make it interesting. 

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5 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Chart Value goes out the window with this kinda deal. So many other factors. 

Houston might rather have 3 consecutive 1's in the coming years then 2 in this years draft. Plus extra 2's. Something Panthers might do. So many variables, you can throw that chart out the window. 

We have #2. We. The Jets. Not anyone else. How anyone can overlook this is ridiculous.  Texans MUST immediately replace Watson with the next best QB not name Trevor and they cant risk losing that option.  It would totally make them look like absolute buffoons. 

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35 minutes ago, Wit said:

Great so we get a haul and rebuild again. This is our MO anyways, may as well make it interesting. 

Well, if you think we have the right GM this time then that's the idea.

 

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2 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

We have #2. We. The Jets. Not anyone else. How anyone can overlook this is ridiculous.  Texans MUST immediately replace Watson with the next best QB not name Trevor and they cant risk losing that option.  It would totally make them look like absolute buffoons. 

Eh. Don’t think they need to immediately replace him. Once you trade your star QB, you’re officially rebuilding from the ground up. They’ll prob tank for a year while building up their roster. They’d prob trade down from 2 if they got it. 

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6 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Eh. Don’t think they need to immediately replace him. Once you trade your star QB, you’re officially rebuilding from the ground up. They’ll prob tank for a year while building up their roster. They’d prob trade down from 2 if they got it. 

It's hard to tank. take it from the Jets.

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Exactly. Once a malcontent always a malcontent. Do people really think he is not going to want a big say in coaching scheme and players. Just not the right move for the Jets.

I kinda feel the same way about it.  I know I don’t follow the Texans but just what is watsons underlying beef?  Can’t be the money.  He just signed the big contract contract a few months ago.  Did he love O’Brien that much?  He didn’t hate McNair enough to turn down the contract.  And just where does the bieinemy love come from?  Maybe the Texans do need to talk to his mother.

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Yes, I think this makes sense. The Texans would be nuts to trade with any team not named the Jets or Dolphins.

On a side note, I think valuing future picks as the 1st pick of the next round is silly. Nobody in their right mind thinks the Jets 1st and KC 1st next year is worth the same. One team is most surely going to pick in the mid 20’s. The other is picking in mid teens even with Watson.

Any ways. Just a minor pet peeve of mine. It doesn’t change your analysis. 

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Negotiations have officially started for Deshaun Watson with the Texans. 
You confirm this simply because rumors of individual teams will start leaking. "The Jets are out". "Chicago is the Favorite". "Panthers are going to be aggressive". 
But assuming this is simply a Draft Pick trade theres literally only 3 teams that could come to the Table. The Jets. The Dolphins and the Jaguars. Jaguars are in the same division so that eliminates them most would think. 
Something that is not talked about enough is that fact that NFL teams can only trade Draft picks TWO YEARS out. So right now draft picks from 2021 and 2022 are only allowed to be traded. That is really important. I am sure there may be some way to circumvent by waiting until the day of the draft to trade Deshaun but that is EXTREMELY unlikely for a trade of this magnitude.
So Lets just talk about 2021 and 2022 picks. When you hear people talk about 2023 draft picks just know its extremely unlikely. So the short version of this post could be the simple fact if you want THREE first round picks NO ONE but the Jets and Miami could offer this. But lets dive further bc this is what is going to complicate this process for the Texans. 
Check out the draft pick value chart. I used last years just bc its easier to read with all colors then a standard one. Obv the Teams are off but its same value for a pick. 
1510946284_ScreenShot2021-01-29at10_50_17AM.thumb.png.24a16cb1bae4b886d75c37113ab3358b.png
 
Note: Future Draft Picks for the sake of argument will be valued one round below at the first pick of that round for all teams. It is not exactly how teams value it but lets keep a standard for the sake of argument. For example The Jets offering Their first next year will be valued at 2.1. Same as the Panthers. Obviously teams may value a Jets future first higher but thats a whole other post/discussion. Just easier to keep a standard here for all. 
The Best Offers on the Table. 
Jets Offers
Lets say the Jets offer 1.2, 1.23 and next years first(Valued at 2.1).  This gives 3940 of value to Texans. 
Dolphins Offer
Dolphins offer 1.3, 1.18 and next years first(Valued at 2.1) This gives 3680 of value to Texans. 
To Beat the Jets the Dolphins would have to offer their later 2nd round pick this year. So 1.3, 1.18, 50 overall and a first next year. This gives the Texans 4080 of value. Is that small number enough to pass up on the chance to pick Zach Wilson? We shall see.  Do the Texans love Tua? Thats a factor but what is his value? If your the dolphins would you offer 3 First and Tua? 
 
Lets talk about those AGGRESSIVE Panthers. Whats the best offer they could come up with?
How do we get them anywhere close to the 4000 the Jets could offer? 
The Panthers would offer their first 3 rounds this year. 8, 39 and 73 which only Total 2135. So Lets add their top 3 picks next year too. So Lets say the Panthers offer Their top 3 picks this year (8,39, and 73) and Top 3 picks next year (2.1,3.1,4.1). Those 6 Picks would total 3000 for the Texans. Yea - They can't touch us. 
Lets talk about Atlanta. 
Atlanta offers 1.4, 35 and Next years First and Second round picks. That would give the Texans 3190 of value.  with Matt Ryan I can't see this at all anyway. 
How about the Niners?
 
SF could offer their first 3 picks in this draft AND NEXT YEARS draft. Those 6 picks would total 2700 of value. 
 
What about the Redskins and Player offer? 
I would think Chase Young may be the most valuable player from last years draft. He still has 4 years of control so lets value him as the number 1 overall pick of this years draft. Then let's have Washington add in this years first and next years first (2.1). That would give the Texans 4455 of value. Hypothetically this could beat the Jets but again - Who is playing QB for Houston? That is why all roads lead to the Jets or Dolphins. 
 
 
Here is the Problem for Houston. 
You need to get 3 First round picks or Caserio might as well resign. There is no way Deshaun should not get that after the Ramsey, Adams and Mack trades. The Problem is only TWO teams can really afford Deshaun. 
If you are Joe Douglas who has been around the NFL for decades or the Miami GM I am sure you just did the above scenarios I did. Both GM's know that unless young Franchise players like Chase Young or Joey Bosa get involved they are the ONLY shows in town. But again even with BOSA the guy is coming off a torn ACL and needs a contract next year. If your Caserio do you value him as TWO first rounders? Its debatable. Even if STUD generational players like Bosa or Young are involved who is playing QB for the Texans?
So when you read these Texans crazy Trade Proposals in which the Jets give 4 First and 4 seconds - Thats not happening. When you read any other teams are involved in this trade but the Jets or Dolphins thats just posturing. When you read the Jets have no shot thats just Caserio and Douglas negotiating through the media. 
That is why the Vegas odds are so heavily favored towards the Dolphins and us. 
Gear up for a whole bunch of rumors and made up stories. But in the end NO ONE can compete with the Jets offering 1.2, 1.23 and Their first next year. Only team that could beat us is the Dolphins with 1.3, 1.18, 50 overall and a first next year. Will they do that and also have to trade Tua? Will the Texans be okay with Justin Fields? Lets see.
Only way we are not the Leader for Deshaun is if Deshaun publicly says he would not play here and man would that screw the Texans bc if that happens Miami then could offer sooo much less and beat anyone. 
Ignore any Schefter tweets that say Jets won't pay the price. Unless its Deshaun not wanting to come here thats Just the Jets letting the Texans know they know they have the best assets and rape is not happening. It's just part of negotiations. 
Lastly - Absolutely NO one could eat those Mercilous and Cobb contracts but the Jets. 
 
So Here is likely to be the best TWO offers the Texans get. 
 
Jets Best Offer. Here is an example of an offer that simply NO ONE in the NFL could match in picks and Cap Savings. 
1.2, 1.23, Jets First Next Year. (3940 of draft Value, Top QB in Draft). 
For 
Deshaun Watson, Whitney Mercilous and Randall Cobb (Saves Texans 18m)
 
The Phins Best Offer. 
1.3, 1.18, 50 overall and next years first (4080) For Deshaun Watson. Phins can not eat cap. 
or 
1.3, 1.18, Tua and next years first  (3680 + Tua) for  Deshaun Watson. Phins can not eat cap. 
 
Again - Prepare for crazy rumors but in the end its going to come down to something around these two teams. Likely something close to these above offers. The rest of what your hearing is simply negotiating through the media. In the end this is a Two horse race. 
 
... and that is simply ludicrous for a 4-12 QB with a godzilla contract.

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6 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Chart Value goes out the window with this kinda deal. So many other factors. 

Houston might rather have 3 consecutive 1's in the coming years then 2 in this years draft. Plus extra 2's. Something Panthers might do. So many variables, you can throw that chart out the window. 

The post says you cannot deal picks outside of 2 years.

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31 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

... and that is simply ludicrous for a 4-12 QB with a godzilla contract.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Watson will count 10.5 this coming year and the next 3 years less than a Josh Allen and probably Baker Mayfield. Very good cap numbers for a top 5 QB which he is. So we'll have plenty of cap to bring in a big time Guard and WR1 AND Edge or Corner or both.

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13 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/04/eag
 

This is saying you can do 20, 21, and 22’s picks before the draft begins. 

Good Catch. Original Credit to NYC Dan. But really was hard to find a link. It kind of goes to show how rare this occurs. I edited original post and added this to why this is likely a very small chance of happening. 

 

Lets do an example of why adding 2023 picks  does not happen. 

The Panthers are the most aggressive they say. 

So They offer 

8, 39 and 73 THIS YEAR. 

First, Second and Third Rounders Next year. 

First Rounder in 2023. 

Those 7 Picks would still only be 3500 for the Texans. It still doesn't come close to the Jets offer of 3940. It still doesn't get the Texans a QB. Thats with the 2023 First rounder being valued as the first pick in the second round this year. What happens if they value it lower? That is a VERY far away time. 

In the end No one touches the Jets or Phins. 2023 is only hypothetical if The Jets and Phins are not interested in a deal,

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7 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Negotiations have officially started for Deshaun Watson with the Texans. 

You confirm this simply because rumors of individual teams will start leaking. "The Jets are out". "Chicago is the Favorite". "Panthers are going to be aggressive". 

But assuming this is simply a Draft Pick trade theres literally only 3 teams that could come to the Table. The Jets. The Dolphins and the Jaguars. Jaguars are in the same division so that eliminates them most would think. 

Something that is not talked about enough is that fact that NFL teams can only trade Draft picks TWO YEARS out. So right now draft picks from 2021 and 2022 are only allowed to be traded. That is really important. I am sure there may be some way to circumvent by waiting until the day of the draft to trade Deshaun but that is EXTREMELY unlikely for a trade of this magnitude. Edited to add: You can actually Trade THREE YEARS of picks. So 2021, 2022, and 2023 are avail - But this is extremely unlikely having been done a few times in History. Its unlikely to Happen because Deshaun is so valuable he should command value sooner as Draft Picks in the future are worth less. So just to be realistic were keeping this to 2021 and 2022. I will put an example in this post below involving the Panthers and why a 2023 really shouldn't be an option here unless the phins/jets are out of it. 

So Lets just talk about 2021 and 2022 picks. When you hear people talk about 2023 draft picks just know its extremely unlikely. So the short version of this post could be the simple fact if you want THREE first round picks NO ONE but the Jets and Miami could offer this. But lets dive further bc this is what is going to complicate this process for the Texans. 

Check out the draft pick value chart. I used last years just bc its easier to read with all colors then a standard one. Obv the Teams are off but its same value for a pick. 

1510946284_ScreenShot2021-01-29at10_50_17AM.thumb.png.24a16cb1bae4b886d75c37113ab3358b.png

 

Note: Future Draft Picks for the sake of argument will be valued one round below at the first pick of that round for all teams. It is not exactly how teams value it but lets keep a standard for the sake of argument. For example The Jets offering Their first next year will be valued at 2.1. Same as the Panthers. Obviously teams may value a Jets future first higher but thats a whole other post/discussion. Just easier to keep a standard here for all. 

The Best Offers on the Table. 

Jets Offers

Lets say the Jets offer 1.2, 1.23 and next years first(Valued at 2.1).  This gives 3940 of value to Texans. 

Dolphins Offer

Dolphins offer 1.3, 1.18 and next years first(Valued at 2.1) This gives 3680 of value to Texans. 

To Beat the Jets the Dolphins would have to offer their later 2nd round pick this year. So 1.3, 1.18, 50 overall and a first next year. This gives the Texans 4080 of value. Is that small number enough to pass up on the chance to pick Zach Wilson? We shall see.  Do the Texans love Tua? Thats a factor but what is his value? If your the dolphins would you offer 3 First and Tua? 

 

Lets talk about those AGGRESSIVE Panthers. Whats the best offer they could come up with?

How do we get them anywhere close to the 4000 the Jets could offer? 

The Panthers would offer their first 3 rounds this year. 8, 39 and 73 which only Total 2135. So Lets add their top 3 picks next year too. So Lets say the Panthers offer Their top 3 picks this year (8,39, and 73) and Top 3 picks next year (2.1,3.1,4.1). Those 6 Picks would total 3000 for the Texans. Yea - They can't touch us. 

Lets talk about Atlanta. 

Atlanta offers 1.4, 35 and Next years First and Second round picks. That would give the Texans 3190 of value.  with Matt Ryan I can't see this at all anyway. 

How about the Niners?

 

SF could offer their first 3 picks in this draft AND NEXT YEARS draft. Those 6 picks would total 2700 of value. 

 

What about the Redskins and Player offer? 

I would think Chase Young may be the most valuable player from last years draft. He still has 4 years of control so lets value him as the number 1 overall pick of this years draft. Then let's have Washington add in this years first and next years first (2.1). That would give the Texans 4455 of value. Hypothetically this could beat the Jets but again - Who is playing QB for Houston? That is why all roads lead to the Jets or Dolphins. 

 

What about a 2023 First? Lets use the Panthers. 

 

Lets do an example of why this likely does not happen. 

The Panthers are the most aggressive they say. 

So They offer 

8, 39 and 73 THIS YEAR. 

First, Second and Third Rounders Next year. 

First Rounder in 2023. 

Those 7 Picks would still only be 3500 for the Texans. It still doesn't come close to the Jets offer of 3940. It still doesn't get the Texans a QB. Thats with the 2023 First rounder being valued as the first pick in the second round this year. Why would Caserio take a pick so far away when he could get one sooner? Teams may change a whole front office by then as well. I would say only chance this happens is if the Dolphins and Jets both are not interested in this deal. 

 

Here is the Problem for Houston. 

You need to get 3 First round picks or Caserio might as well resign. There is no way Deshaun should not get that after the Ramsey, Adams and Mack trades. The Problem is only TWO teams can really afford Deshaun. 

If you are Joe Douglas who has been around the NFL for decades or the Miami GM I am sure you just did the above scenarios I did. Both GM's know that unless young Franchise players like Chase Young or Joey Bosa get involved they are the ONLY shows in town. But again even with BOSA the guy is coming off a torn ACL and needs a contract next year. If your Caserio do you value him as TWO first rounders? Its debatable. Even if STUD generational players like Bosa or Young are involved who is playing QB for the Texans?

So when you read these Texans crazy Trade Proposals in which the Jets give 4 First and 4 seconds - Thats not happening. When you read any other teams are involved in this trade but the Jets or Dolphins thats just posturing. When you read the Jets have no shot thats just Caserio and Douglas negotiating through the media. 

That is why the Vegas odds are so heavily favored towards the Dolphins and us. 

Gear up for a whole bunch of rumors and made up stories. But in the end NO ONE can compete with the Jets offering 1.2, 1.23 and Their first next year. Only team that could beat us is the Dolphins with 1.3, 1.18, 50 overall and a first next year. Will they do that and also have to trade Tua? Will the Texans be okay with Justin Fields? Lets see.

Only way we are not the Leader for Deshaun is if Deshaun publicly says he would not play here and man would that screw the Texans bc if that happens Miami then could offer sooo much less and beat anyone. 

Ignore any Schefter tweets that say Jets won't pay the price. Unless its Deshaun not wanting to come here thats Just the Jets letting the Texans know they know they have the best assets and rape is not happening. It's just part of negotiations. 

Lastly - Absolutely NO one could eat those Mercilous and Cobb contracts but the Jets. 

 

So Here is likely to be the best TWO offers the Texans get. 

 

Jets Best Offer. Here is an example of an offer that simply NO ONE in the NFL could match in picks and Cap Savings. 

1.2, 1.23, Jets First Next Year. (3940 of draft Value, Top QB in Draft). 

For 

Deshaun Watson, Whitney Mercilous and Randall Cobb (Saves Texans 18m)

 

The Phins Best Offer. 

1.3, 1.18, 50 overall and next years first (4080) For Deshaun Watson. Phins can not eat cap. 

or 

1.3, 1.18, Tua and next years first  (3680 + Tua) for  Deshaun Watson. Phins can not eat cap. 

 

Again - Prepare for crazy rumors but in the end its going to come down to something around these two teams. Likely something close to these above offers. The rest of what your hearing is simply negotiating through the media. In the end this is a Two horse race. 

 

Not going to say I’m 100% positive on this, but I think you might be a year off. “Two years out” would mean 2023, as we are at 2021 now, 2022 would be one year out, and 2023 would be 2 years out. Then there is that extra year if you trade at the draft as you mention. 
 

like I said, not 100%, but pretty sure this is how I read it. 

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35 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

when I say tank, I mean just take your lumps for a year or two while building through the draft. Nobody actually tanks. 

Texans would have the #2 pick and take the QB of their choice. Not guaranteed that the following 2 years.

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2 hours ago, MykePM said:

That article is really weak sauce.  When the top two trade chips listed are a RB that is (quoting the article itself) "coming off two consecutive injury-plagued seasons" and a veteran player making 14 mil, it makes a better case for why the Giants can't make a good offer for Watson than why they can.

 

the funniest part is mentioning evan engram making the pro-bowl. if there were ever a pro-bowl nomination that wasnt deserved at all....this was it

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20 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Good Catch. Original Credit to NYC Dan. But really was hard to find a link. It kind of goes to show how rare this occurs. I edited original post and added this to why this is likely a very small chance of happening. 

 

 

Lets do an example of why adding 2023 picks  does not happen. 

The Panthers are the most aggressive they say. 

So They offer 

8, 39 and 73 THIS YEAR. 

First, Second and Third Rounders Next year. 

First Rounder in 2023. 

Those 7 Picks would still only be 3500 for the Texans. It still doesn't come close to the Jets offer of 3940. It still doesn't get the Texans a QB. Thats with the 2023 First rounder being valued as the first pick in the second round this year. What happens if they value it lower? That is a VERY far away time. 

In the end No one touches the Jets or Phins. 2023 is only hypothetical if The Jets and Phins are not interested in a deal,

If I was the GM, I wouldn’t take the Jets deal over that Panthers deal honestly. I’d rather have that spread of picks over 3 years. Just offers more flexibility. 
I think they’d actually rather a QB like Darnold as a placeholder then insert a rookie QB at this point in their rebuild. 

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10 minutes ago, Samtorobby47 said:

If I was the GM, I wouldn’t take the Jets deal over that Panthers deal honestly. I’d rather have that spread of picks over 3 years. Just offers more flexibility. 
I think they’d actually rather a QB like Darnold as a placeholder then insert a rookie QB at this point in their rebuild. 

The Panthers 2023 First I valued as 2.1 in this years draft. It could be valued much lower then that as its 2 years away. 

So In that Scenario above the Jets are offering 440 more points than the Panthers or about a mid Second Round Pick more in value than the Panthers. Thats a pretty big difference. If the 2023 if valued lower then 2.1 of this year by NFL teams your actually getting a Low First round pick less in value from the Panthers offer. 

Caserio is an experienced GM that is fully capable of flipping these picks, trading down and acquiring mid round picks. Hes done it with the Patriots often. 

I think moreso then that the problem with the above is you lose the deal as compared to the Jets/Dolphins offer AND you dont have a future franchise QB. How do you trade Deshaun and not get a young franchise QB and sell tickets next year?

Total fair point on wanting more spread/mid round picks though. A GM needs to have the confidence that he could move high picks. Thats something our last GM could not do. 

 

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8 hours ago, Samtorobby47 said:

Chart Value goes out the window with this kinda deal. So many other factors. 

Houston might rather have 3 consecutive 1's in the coming years then 2 in this years draft. Plus extra 2's. Something Panthers might do. So many variables, you can throw that chart out the window. 

Yea I was coming in here to say that. @Shockwave did a fantastic job laying everything out but there are some hurdles that don't involve the chart.

- Do the Texans want a QB in return? #2 is going to be their best bet at getting their guy

- David Culley - is likely only there until a culture is built up 2 maybe 3 years. Do they really want to draft a QB right now knowing they will likely have a new staff that may want their own QB?

 

All I'm saying is that the Texans are so cap strapped that I could see them opting for a plethora of picks regardless of value chart because the optics look better than getting 3 picks from us of higher value

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22 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

Yea I was coming in here to say that. @Shockwave did a fantastic job laying everything out but there are some hurdles that don't involve the chart.

- Do the Texans want a QB in return? #2 is going to be their best bet at getting their guy

- David Culley - is likely only there until a culture is built up 2 maybe 3 years. Do they really want to draft a QB right now knowing they will likely have a new staff that may want their own QB?

 

All I'm saying is that the Texans are so cap strapped that I could see them opting for a plethora of picks regardless of value chart because the optics look better than getting 3 picks from us of higher value

Thankyou, 

I would assume if Douglas is okay offering 4000 points of value or those high picks he would certainly be okay giving less value or spreading it out which is actually better for us. 

For example the Jeremiah idea where the Jets give 1.2, first in 2022, and 2023 mixed in with a few extra mid round picks actually helps us. Imagine still having a first this year and next year as a Jets Fan AND getting Watson? Build Douglas a damn statue. 

In 2021 The Jets have an extra First, Third, Fifth

In 2022 The Jets have an extra First, fifth, Sixth x2. 

We could beat all of these teams any way you slice it. Prime Picks, Mid Round Picks, Amount of picks etc. We have 18 picks in the next 2 Drafts. Most assets in the league. Really have to give credit to Douglas for that. 

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Watson will count 10.5 this coming year and the next 3 years less than a Josh Allen and probably Baker Mayfield. Very good cap numbers for a top 5 QB which he is. So we'll have plenty of cap to bring in a big time Guard and WR1 AND Edge or Corner or both.
10mill this coming year, 35mill in 2021, 20mill in 2022 ... **** that

Oh yeah and if we keep him ...
2024 : 32 Million
2025 : 32 Million


Sent from my SM-G950U1 using JetNation.com mobile app


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7 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Watson has never been a malcontent, nor is he being one now.  

This is an absurd take.

Watson and adams are both Malcontents the difference is Adams uses Twitter and Watson uses his agent 

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9 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Watson went 4-12 with a better roster than the Jets so just throw all that Top 5 BS out the door.

Im sure people agree with this way of ranking QBs.  

That BS stuff, lol.

 

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Wait, what?


Did I stutter? He’s not being a malcontent.

Not every player who requests a trade is a malcontent. He’s not causing locker room discord and is universally seen as a great dude by teammates, fans, the media and coaches. Having a legit beef with the owner and front office says nothing negative about his character or personality.
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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nope. Adams is a diva narcissist. Watson just wants to be traded. That’s not a sin.

 

It's a distinction without a difference 

This is a matter of perspective 

If the Jets had drafted Watson, signed Watson, went 4-12 and he demanded a trade, I'm sure we'd be very reasonable about it 

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Watson is NOT practical for any team, even the Texans. He's a great QB with an extremely HIGH price tag that at the moment is not right for the JETS. 2022 he is due 42M, GTFO. There are a tremendous amount of dip sh*t blow hards on this site that think it's even a real option in NY.

Watson WILL NOT be a NY Jets! Get over it, move on. 

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