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Rich Cimini: Jets #2 pick and #34 is equal to three first round picks. Offer that and a little more to get Watson.


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Skip to 35 minutes in https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/ESP4829428980?selected=ESP6101447083 Rich with a great point. According to the draft chart #2 + #34 = 3160 points. The 16th overall pick wh

The people who can't comprehend how much the 2nd is worth has been driving my mad....it's one thing when it's fans but when it's people who are paid for their opinions it's mindboggling.

Rich def reads this message board.   

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22 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Skip to 35 minutes in https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/ESP4829428980?selected=ESP6101447083

Rich with a great point. According to the draft chart #2 + #34 = 3160 points. The 16th overall pick which is a mid rounder is equal to 1000.

Why even pay that much ? WATSON has the leverage due to his no trade clause. He can refuse a deal to any other team then the Texans will have no choice but to take what's offered. 

Personally I see things between Watson and the Texans working out and he stays put. That wouldn't be the 1st time that happened. 

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The only math that counts here is that the #2 pick is worth slightly more than the #3 pick, and even that only counts if the Texans want Zack Wilson. Trying to sell Jets fans on “actually, the #2 equals X picks” is silly. It’s like saying “hey, you can trade that Rolex for a couple of Casio watches.” Oh word? The Jets problem is that they need the Rolex, desperately, and Watson is of Rolex value. The Texans and Dolphins aren’t going to sit around and wait for the Jets to dump down, pick up some lesser picks, and circle back and try to pawn those off as if they’re equal to the 2. 

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1 minute ago, Jetsbb said:

It is definitely not "slightly more" if that difference is between the Texans getting the QB they want and not getting the QB they want.

The proposition that the #2 pick equals multiple first rounders only applies if the Jets are trading out of #2, in which case the Jets cease to be a viable trade partner for the Texans, presuming they’d want to draft Wilson to replace Watson. Cimini and others want to frame this as “actually, the Texans are already getting multiple ones by virtue of getting the #2 because of the chart value,” which is obviously fallacious. The Texans would simply be getting the better pick, which is why the Jets package is marginally better than the Dolphins package. 

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4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The only math that counts here is that the #2 pick is worth slightly more than the #3 pick, and even that only counts if the Texans want Zack Wilson. Trying to sell Jets fans on “actually, the #2 equals X picks” is silly. It’s like saying “hey, you can trade that Rolex for a couple of Casio watches.” Oh word? The Jets problem is that they need the Rolex, desperately, and Watson is of Rolex value. The Texans and Dolphins aren’t going to sit around and wait for the Jets to dump down, pick up some lesser picks, and circle back and try to pawn those off as if they’re equal to the 2. 

The #1 is slightly more than than #2. We can do this all day.  With the #1 being a closed case, the #2 becomes even more valuable.  Texans have the opportunity to get their choice of a FQB available after Trevor.  If they don't trade with the Jets, their QB options will be somewhat limited if they trade Watson to another team.  They can possibly trade with the Fish and take Tua and picks.  They'd have to really surrender a lot to get Watson though.  Here is one trade I just saw on the net:   Houston sends Deshaun Watson and a 2022 third-round pick  Miami sends pick 3, pick 18, a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 second-round pick, and Tua Tagovailoa ( former 1st round pick)    

That's in alignment with what they just requested. But what if they don't want Tua and want to take Fields or Wilson. They risk losing one or the other to us.  Lot of intangibles at play here.  If they'd be ok with either, then it's a great deal for them. If.

 

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6 hours ago, undertow said:

The people who can't comprehend how much the 2nd is worth has been driving my mad....it's one thing when it's fans but when it's people who are paid for their opinions it's mindboggling.

It depends yearly. If there were 2 TL's in this draft it would be thru the roof valuable. I just don't see Fields or Wilson as top ten... 

Combine could help in increasing the value.

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22 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

The #1 is slightly more than than #2. We can do this all day.  With the #1 being a closed case, the #2 becomes even more valuable.  Texans have the opportunity to get their choice of a FQB available after Trevor.  If they don't trade with the Jets, their QB options will be somewhat limited if they trade Watson to another team.  They can possibly trade with the Fish and take Tua and picks.  They'd have to really surrender a lot to get Watson though.  Here is one trade I just saw on the net:   Houston sends Deshaun Watson and a 2022 third-round pick  Miami sends pick 3, pick 18, a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 second-round pick, and Tua Tagovailoa ( former 1st round pick)    

That's in alignment with what they just requested. But what if they don't want Tua and want to take Fields or Wilson. They risk losing one or the other to us.  Lot of intangibles at play here.  If they'd be ok with either, then it's a great deal for them. If.

 

Right, my point being that Cimini and others implying that trading the #2 to the Texans is *really* like trading them two or more ones because of the chart is silly. The implication is that the Texans should be satisfied with the two because they could potentially turn it into more picks, which isn’t why that pick is valuable to them. Cimini and others are saying, effectively, by buying a Porsche, you *actually* bought three cars because you can sell the Porsche and buy three Honda Civics. 

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It’s a good point that hasn’t been emphcised much in the news reports. I guess the Texas gm (or someone from the team) set watsons price at 4 first rounders plus a couple of defensive starters or something like that but nothing about what draft positions those picks are. And there is a huge difference between the 2 pick and even the 5 pick.  We saw that when the jets selected gholston.  I believe they would’ve traded out and picked that slug largely on his physical talent and a lack of trading partners.  He just wasn’t a very good football player.

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Right, my point being that Cimini and others implying that trading the #2 to the Texans is *really* like trading them two or more ones because of the chart is silly. The implication is that the Texans should be satisfied with the two because they could potentially turn it into more picks, which isn’t why that pick is valuable to them. Cimini and others are saying, effectively, by buying a Porsche, you *actually* bought three cars because you can sell the Porsche and buy three Honda Civics. 

I myself would never drive a civic. I have an Accord thank you very much.

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This is why it will be hard for the jets and texans to get a deal done.  It is all perception.  Most fans are casual, and the casual fan just sees the number of picks in a round, they are not looking at the chart.  This is made worse for the texans because past trades have been heavily scrutinized for the lack of a return.  Watson is the face of that franchise.  They need the perception to be that they got a good deal.  Especially with a new GM and Coach.  

The jets might have to look into a multi team trade, where they move down from 2, gain more assets, and then trade that lower pick along with future picks for Watson.

Take the rumored Carolina deal for example.

Jets trade 2 to Panthers for 8, 39, 103, 22-1.

Jets then trade the 8, Seahawks 22-1, Jets 23-1, a 6th round pick each year, and Shepherd, Zuniga, and Morgan for Watson.

Leaves the Jets with the 23, 34, 39, 66, 86, 97, 103, 129, 137 plus whatever the Jets get for Darnold this year, and 2 1st rounders in 2022.  

 

 

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10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Pound for pound, the finest vehicle on earth 

VTech. From 0 to 60, I’m driving Ms. Daisy then VTech just kicks in and at 61 I’m Mario Andretti. 

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1 minute ago, Wonderboy said:

VTech. From 0 to 60, I’m driving Ms. Daisy then VTech just kicks in and at 61 I’m Mario Andretti. 

You get that type of performance AND the only time you ever have to see a mechanic is when you need new brake pads. 

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16 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

This is why it will be hard for the jets and texans to get a deal done.  It is all perception.  Most fans are casual, and the casual fan just sees the number of picks in a round, they are not looking at the chart.  This is made worse for the texans because past trades have been heavily scrutinized for the lack of a return.  Watson is the face if that franchise.  They need the perception to be that they got a good deal.  Especially with a new GM and Coach.  

The jets might have to look into a multi team trade, where they move down from 2, gain more assets, and then trade that lower pick along with future picks for Watson.

Take the rumored Carolina deal for example.

Jets trade 2 to Panthers for 8, 39, 103, 22-1.

Jets then trade the 8, Seahawks 22-1, Jets 23-1, a 6th round pick each year, and Shepherd, Zuniga, and Morgan for Watson.

Leaves the Jets with the 23, 34, 39, 66, 86, 97, 103, 129, 137 plus whatever the Jets get for Darnold this year, and 2 1st rounders in 2022.  

 

 

What are you playing Bingo?

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40 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

I agree here......The draft chart has always annoyed me, blind adherence to some arbitrary and subjective guide that Jimmy Johnson apparently cooked up 30 odd years ago is infuriating...by all means use it as a general guide but it fails to take into account circumstance and situation....and desperation.

It’s all about NEED and WANT

A smart GM has a poker face and understands leverage. I really hope Joe Douglas, whether it’s a trade for Watson or a trade back from 2, plays hardball with everyone. there is no need for panic when we hold all the cards....”you want our No 2 overall pick?...how badly do you want it?.....because we really like the players we can get there and we’ve got a queue of other GM’s offering up their entire draft for the next two years for that No 2 overall pick.......and some are even throwing in wives and daughters too.....show me the money!“

I hate the idea that all trades must have equal value, I want us to win every deal with an out and out fleecing. How badly do you want our No 2 pick?....make me an offer I simply can’t refuse. it’s up to us to decide on how much the No 2 pick is worth, and this year we should be saying it’s 2 or even 3 first round picks(depending on whether they are top 10 or late 20’s)

Maybe we can help make the problem go away in Houston but we’re not in any rush, there are some really nice young QB’s available at No 2 and we’d get them on a rookie deal for 5 years, We also really like Sam (so what if it’s a lie, I don’t care...it’s all good leverage). You want 3 first rounders for Deshaun? ...LOL....ok well we’ll give you the No 2 overall if you bung us back a 3rd this year or a two next year and call it quits.

The thing is we actually have options, some people might disagree and actively hate some of those options(sticking with Sam) or be desperate for them to happen(acquire Watson) or not convinced either way(draft a QB at 2) but it puts us in a strong place to play poker and come out winning this one big time. We’ve just seen the Lions and Rams totally tear up the draft chart and in my opinion the Lions have walked away with a haul thanks to the Rams desperation to move on from Goff and that contract.

your options are limited to the minimum another party can/does offer.  If Watson is available to the Jets and Dolphins and the Jets want Watson....then their option is to make an offer the Texans like better than the offer Miami makes to them.  That's it.  Watson will be worth EXACTLY whatever the final deal is (if one is even made)

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25 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

This is why it will be hard for the jets and texans to get a deal done.  It is all perception.  Most fans are casual, and the casual fan just sees the number of picks in a round, they are not looking at the chart.  This is made worse for the texans because past trades have been heavily scrutinized for the lack of a return.  Watson is the face if that franchise.  They need the perception to be that they got a good deal.  Especially with a new GM and Coach.  

The jets might have to look into a multi team trade, where they move down from 2, gain more assets, and then trade that lower pick along with future picks for Watson.

Take the rumored Carolina deal for example.

Jets trade 2 to Panthers for 8, 39, 103, 22-1.

Jets then trade the 8, Seahawks 22-1, Jets 23-1, a 6th round pick each year, and Shepherd, Zuniga, and Morgan for Watson.

Leaves the Jets with the 23, 34, 39, 66, 86, 97, 103, 129, 137 plus whatever the Jets get for Darnold this year, and 2 1st rounders in 2022.  

 

 

I disagree that “perception” will be a huge factor here. The Texans play is to get rid of Deshaun and Watt and make Zack Wilson the face of the franchise ASAP, then sell everyone on the future. They’re already in a sh*tty place perception-wise and need to claw out. They can sell Wilson! And 23! And a 2022 first! And a third! as a requisite haul. On the Jets side, any fan grumbling about “but my draft piiiicks” will go out the window once Joe Douglas is walking Deshaun Watson out onto the dais for his introductory press conference with Allen Robinson or Chris Godwin. 

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1 minute ago, Zerovoltz said:

your options are limited to the minimum another party can/does offer.  If Watson is available to the Jets and Dolphins and the Jets want Watson....then their option is to make an offer the Texans like better than the offer Miami makes to them.  That's it.  Watson will be worth EXACTLY whatever the final deal is (if one is even made)

This nails it, and I’d imagine this is what the Jets thinking is—not only do they need to beat any potential Miami package, they need to make it clear that they won’t be outbid by Miami every step of the way. The only real leverage the Texans have is that Miami has a bunch of picks too and, presumably, Watson would agree to play there. If Houston wants to **** around, the Jets can bone them by taking Wilson, or trading the 2 to someone who will. 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You get that type of performance AND the only time you ever have to see a mechanic is when you need new brake pads. 

It’s a fantastic little car. Bought it last year. It’s old 2004 but just had 125k with sun roof.  Body and interior is mint. Threw in my smoking sound system worth 2k from my other car I had to junk (dvd, 2 amps, subwoofer). Added some new Honda rims I got from a junk yard, never used for 1k that are worth nearly double, and 4 new Michelins. Topped it off with Weathertech mats. She really likes the mats 😀

AD4B7521-7CED-4011-982F-CB7EB44930E6.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I disagree that “perception” will be a huge factor here. The Texans play to get rid of Deshaun and Watt and make Zack Wilson the face of the franchise ASAP, then sell everyone on the future. They can sell Wilson! And 23! And a 2022 first! And a third! as a requisite haul. On the Jets side, any fan grumbling about “but my draft piiiicks” will go out the window once Joe Douglas is walking Deshaun Watson out onto the dais for his introductory press conference with Allen Robinson or Chris Godwin. 

That could be, if they really want Zach Wilson and think he is the only guy.  I am not sure that they will do that.  I am really not sure what kind of system the Texans will operate.  

They could try to get a guy Jalen Hurts, who could work in a Reid type system.  He may also work as more of a running option, like Baltimore has done with Culley there.  

On the other hand, if its a more Pats like system, and Caserio and Easterby want more of a drop back passer, they could go with a guy like Mac Jones, who seems like a perfect fit in New England.  I think he is going to go a lot higher than people think.  

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11 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

That could be, if they really want Zach Wilson and think he is the only guy they want.  I am not sure that they will do that.  I am really not sure what kind of system the Texans will operate.  

They could try to get a guy Jalen Hurts, who could work in a Reid type system.  He may also work as more of a running option, like Baltimore has done with Culley there.  

On the other hand, if its a more Pats like system, and Caserio and Easterby want more of a drop back passer, they could go with a guy like Mac Jones, who seems like a perfect fit in New England.  I think he is going to go a lot higher than people think.  

In either scenario, having the #2 is better than having the #3. They control their fate. And I’d also guarantee that, once Watson is traded, they’re going to start the clock on Culley because it appears he was hired explicitly to keep Watson happy, but was a bottom of the barrel pick otherwise

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I’m either scenario, having the #2 is better than having the #3. They control their fate. And I’d also guarantee that, once Watson is traded, they’re going to start the clock on Culley because it appears he was hired explicitly to keep Watson happy, but was a bottom of the barrel pick otherwise

I guess, if you think Miami is going to move on from Tua.  If they are, and the Texans like Tua, the Jets aren’t going to beat Tua, 3, 22-1 plus more.  Unless for some reason they like Darnold too.  If you believed the rumor from yesterday, it didn’t mention asking for a qb in return for Watson.  It listed picks and defensive players.  I don’t see the Dolphins picking up Watson unless Tua is part of the deal, but I guess they could.  

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1 minute ago, Butterfield said:

I guess, if you think Miami is going to move on from Tua.  If they are, and the Texans like Tua, the Jets aren’t going to beat Tua, 3, 22-1 plus more.  Unless for some reason they like Darnold too.  If you believed the rumor from yesterday, it didn’t mention asking for a qb in return for Watson.  It listed picks and defensive players.  I don’t see the Dolphins picking up Watson unless Tua is part of the deal, but I guess they could.  

Agreed, and as perception goes, I think going from Watson to Tua would be absolutely soul-crushing for a lot of Texans fans. That would be an impossibly hard sell at this point, which is why I think you don’t hear a lot about Tua being involved in these packages anymore. 

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