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Rich Cimini: Jets #2 pick and #34 is equal to three first round picks. Offer that and a little more to get Watson.


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Skip to 35 minutes in https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/ESP4829428980?selected=ESP6101447083 Rich with a great point. According to the draft chart #2 + #34 = 3160 points. The 16th overall pick wh

The people who can't comprehend how much the 2nd is worth has been driving my mad....it's one thing when it's fans but when it's people who are paid for their opinions it's mindboggling.

Rich def reads this message board.   

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31 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

It’s a fantastic little car. Bought it last year. It’s old 2004 but just had 125k with sun roof.  Body and interior is mint. Threw in my smoking sound system worth 2k from my other car I had to junk (dvd, 2 amps, subwoofer). Added some new Honda rims I got from a junk yard, never used for 1k that are worth nearly double, and 4 new Michelins. Topped it off with Weathertech mats. She really likes the mats 😀

AD4B7521-7CED-4011-982F-CB7EB44930E6.jpeg

Amazing how a discussion of trading for a FQB devolved into a discussion of used cars. 

But I'm impressed with how you dressed up that mule. Only 125 thousand miles too. 

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6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The Jets problem is that they need the Rolex, desperately, and Watson is of Rolex value.

I see the opposite.  It’s the Texans who are desperate to sell their fanbase a quarterback replacement and are being held hostage by their selfish incumbent.  They are compromised as Watson can veto any deal he wants and is in no mood to play nice.  The Texans are going to take what they can get.  They can’t demand anything.  

The Jets meanwhile are sitting pretty at #2 and can reset nicely with Wilson and a Darnold trade or create a nice preseason battle between Wilson and Darnold.  Jets fans aren’t losing a Top 5 quarterback so we don’t feel like there is something to replace.  And with the Saleh hiring we’re prepared for a 1-2 year rebuilding down period.  

Two different teams and two different fanbases with two different sets of expectations.   We don’t need a pricey Rolex right now.   It’s a beautiful luxury, and if it goes that way it’s cool, but if we get Wilson it’s perfectly fine too.  

SAR I

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1 minute ago, SAR I said:

Two different teams and two different fanbases with two different sets of expectations.   We don’t need a pricey Rolex right now.   It’s a beautiful luxury, and if it goes that way it’s cool, but if we get Wilson it’s perfectly fine too.

BUT, having an elite QB isn’t a luxury, it is a base necessity, and the scenario where we end up with Wilson is not, in any way, equivalent to the scenario where we end up with Watson. 

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This is the only thing that matters. If the Texans have a strong preference among the QBs available after Lawrence, the difference between pick 2 and pick 3 is a chasm, and the dolphins can't make it up unless the Texans want Tua. 
If they think the next 2 qbs are roughly equal and would be happy with either, then the difference between picks number 2 and 3 is effectively zero, and the rest of the picks and players that the Jets and dolphins offer in the trade will decide where Watson goes, assuming the Texans trade him at all. 
And since they won't really know that until their draft evaluations are done, don't expect a deal until right before the start of the new league year

I agree but I would imagine that Houston needs to be certain they get the guy they want. While both QB’s, let’s say Wilson and Fields, could be close, they have to get the guy they want if they are trading away Watson. That’s hopefully our biggest sell for the difference between #2 and 3.


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48 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I disagree that “perception” will be a huge factor here. The Texans play is to get rid of Deshaun and Watt and make Zack Wilson the face of the franchise ASAP

There's no evidence that the Texans value wilson as a qb replacement for Watson. In fact the rumor mill has Zach wilson not on the Texans draft board at all 

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3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

There's no evidence that the Texans value wilson as a qb replacement for Watson. In fact the rumor mill has Zach wilson not on the Texans draft board at all 

I know you’ve posted this before because of the Mormon thing, but where have you seen this written? Because that would be a pretty big deal, especially after not even interviewing Saleh for, presumably, similar considerations 

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18 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I know you’ve posted this before because of the Mormon thing, but where have you seen this written? Because that would be a pretty big deal, especially after not even interviewing Saleh for, presumably, similar considerations 

Reddit 

Same place I get my stock advice 

Read the comments 

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4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Reddit 

Same place I get my stock advice 

Read the comments 

So I got about 40 comments in and had to stop because wow what a garbage dump.

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35 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

BUT, having an elite QB isn’t a luxury, it is a base necessity, and the scenario where we end up with Wilson is not, in any way, equivalent to the scenario where we end up with Watson. 

But for the Texans the choice is Wilson over no one at QB, not the elite QB theyre now forced to trade.  Or sit.  They dont have Watson anymore, hes gone, cant be brought back to the team, he's already separated himself from the Texans.  

Its no one or Fields/Wilson.  Or maybe use the pick for a pile of picks and rebuild the team, restock with good young talent.  Whats their option, multi[le mid round picks?

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4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So I got about 40 comments in and had to stop because wow what a garbage dump.

Just like home... The  villain of the piece is Easterby.

Bottom line is there's no evidence the Texans would draft wilson. In fact the more one browses the comments the less likely Watson gets traded 

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4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

But for the Texans the choice is Wilson over no one at QB, not the elite QB theyre now forced to trade.  Or sit.  They dont have Watson anymore, hes gone, cant be brought back to the team, he's already separated himself from the Texans.  

Its no one or Fields/Wilson.  Or maybe use the pick for a pile of picks and rebuild the team, restock with good young talent.  Whats their option, multi[le mid round picks?

It’s face-saving time for that franchise.

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Dude those are Reddit comments what 

Reddit runs the stock market on comments 

Step 1 demand to see the source 

Step 2 attack the source 

The Texans are run by an evangelical bigot we can either accept that or attack the source 

Shane where is your source that wilson is worth a 2 pick? That loss against coastal Carolina? 

 

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2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Reddit runs the stock market on comments 

Step 1 demand to see the source 

Step 2 attack the source 

The Texans are run by an evangelical bigot we can either accept that or attack the source 

Shane where is your source that wilson is worth a 2 pick? That loss against coastal Carolina? 

 

BRO REDDIT COMMENTS COME ON

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Just now, T0mShane said:

Bitonti: Hey, you want to question the validity of the sources, that’s on you.

The sources: 

8B2EF7DA-5C64-48D4-92D8-62A28EE3944D.jpeg

Reddit runs the world dude stop being a dinosaur 

I still want your source that says the Texans love wilson 

Oh wait it doesn't exist 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Right, my point being that Cimini and others implying that trading the #2 to the Texans is *really* like trading them two or more ones because of the chart is silly. The implication is that the Texans should be satisfied with the two because they could potentially turn it into more picks, which isn’t why that pick is valuable to them. Cimini and others are saying, effectively, by buying a Porsche, you *actually* bought three cars because you can sell the Porsche and buy three Honda Civics. 

I think all Cimini is trying to illustrate is that the #2 overall isn't just one first rounder in a package, it's worth significantly more than that. You're just being anal and dissecting it far more than it needs to be. Sometimes he isn't so bad. 

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

This nails it, and I’d imagine this is what the Jets thinking is—not only do they need to beat any potential Miami package, they need to make it clear that they won’t be outbid by Miami every step of the way. The only real leverage the Texans have is that Miami has a bunch of picks too and, presumably, Watson would agree to play there. If Houston wants to **** around, the Jets can bone them by taking Wilson, or trading the 2 to someone who will. 

This has the potential to be a dream situation for the Texans, having division rivals in a bidding war for their prize. Problem for them is that I expect that Joe Douglas is going to apply a value to DeShaun Watson, and he's not going to go too far north of that value (if at all) to acquire him. Good news for fans (like you) chomping at the bit to get a deal done is that I don't see Belichick's former right-hand man putting together a Tannenbaum-like package, either, so the bidding war that the Texans and their fans are certainly hoping develops probably never gets all that far, with both the Jets and fish never really escalating their offers. 

I like Cimini's proposal, in that I'd be hopeful of holding onto #23 this year in any deal. Having that high second rounder doesn't help them so much if it's the fish vs. Jets for Watson, though, because Miami also has Houston's second rounder this year available to trade. 

I stay out of these conversations for the most part, though, because I continue to not believe that JD will win any bidding war for Watson, that he values draft picks very highly, and that in the end he'll be deciding between his favorite QB in this year's draft vs. the best offer he gets for the #2. 

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1 hour ago, Butterfield said:

This is why it will be hard for the jets and texans to get a deal done.  It is all perception.  Most fans are casual, and the casual fan just sees the number of picks in a round, they are not looking at the chart.  This is made worse for the texans because past trades have been heavily scrutinized for the lack of a return.  Watson is the face of that franchise.  They need the perception to be that they got a good deal.  Especially with a new GM and Coach.  

The jets might have to look into a multi team trade, where they move down from 2, gain more assets, and then trade that lower pick along with future picks for Watson.

Take the rumored Carolina deal for example.

Jets trade 2 to Panthers for 8, 39, 103, 22-1.

Jets then trade the 8, Seahawks 22-1, Jets 23-1, a 6th round pick each year, and Shepherd, Zuniga, and Morgan for Watson.

Leaves the Jets with the 23, 34, 39, 66, 86, 97, 103, 129, 137 plus whatever the Jets get for Darnold this year, and 2 1st rounders in 2022.  

 

 

This is a great point. Caserio & the Patriots have always been bargain shoppers during the draft, always seem to find that team that will trade up for #31 or #32 & get another #2 & #4. So, on that premise, with Nick quite certain that Joe Douglas can maneauver out of the #2 spot and obtain more draft picks to hand over to Houston for Watson, we could see a Watson trade DURING THE DRAFT ITSELF. If Joe Douglas main goal is to obtain Watson & keep enough draft capital to build the team, trading back & splitting the added picks with the Texans including future picks + Sam Darnold to hold them over for 2021 could still happen. 

Caserio learned his stuff in New England, no team trades BACK as much as the Patriots did. Basically Caserio would have Joe Douglas doing his work for him (trading out of #2). Caserio wouldn't have to do the heavy lifting during the draft after landing the #2 pick. 

Under this scenario, Douglas has more ammunition that Caserio wanted & Caserio now takes over his picks & maneauvers them like they always did, adding more moves for 2022 to rebuild the Texans. 

There are so many scenarios. I keep saying the Texans won 4 games with Deshaun Watson, 2 vs the Jaguars. He stays the course? They'll be worse the next 2 years. That's just a fact not having any assets to fix the team.

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2 hours ago, redlichtie said:

I agree here......The draft chart has always annoyed me, blind adherence to some arbitrary and subjective guide that Jimmy Johnson apparently cooked up 30 odd years ago is infuriating...by all means use it as a general guide but it fails to take into account circumstance and situation....and desperation.

It’s all about NEED and WANT

A smart GM has a poker face and understands leverage. I really hope Joe Douglas, whether it’s a trade for Watson or a trade back from 2, plays hardball with everyone. there is no need for panic when we hold all the cards....”you want our No 2 overall pick?...how badly do you want it?.....because we really like the players we can get there and we’ve got a queue of other GM’s offering up their entire draft for the next two years for that No 2 overall pick.......and some are even throwing in wives and daughters too.....show me the money!“

Thank you so much for your post!!

This is the approach anyone should have when you are negotiating with others.. Know your "NO's" and dont get off it for the quick hit!!!

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8 hours ago, undertow said:

The people who can't comprehend how much the 2nd is worth has been driving my mad....it's one thing when it's fans but when it's people who are paid for their opinions it's mindboggling.

Everyone comprehends it. Everyone. Everyone. Everyone. Everyone. Everyone.

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7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Reddit runs the world dude stop being a dinosaur 

I still want your source that says the Texans love wilson 

Oh wait it doesn't exist 

Hang on, let me check r/Zack Wilson stans

7 minutes ago, slats said:

I think all Cimini is trying to illustrate is that the #2 overall isn't just one first rounder in a package, it's worth significantly more than that. You're just being anal and dissecting it far more than it needs to be. Sometimes he isn't so bad. 

This has the potential to be a dream situation for the Texans, having division rivals in a bidding war for their prize. Problem for them is that I expect that Joe Douglas is going to apply a value to DeShaun Watson, and he's not going to go too far north of that value (if at all) to acquire him. Good news for fans (like you) chomping at the bit to get a deal done is that I don't see Belichick's former right-hand man putting together a Tannenbaum-like package, either, so the bidding war that the Texans and their fans are certainly hoping develops probably never gets all that far, with both the Jets and fish never really escalating their offers. 

I like Cimini's proposal, in that I'd be hopeful of holding onto #23 this year in any deal. Having that high second rounder doesn't help them so much if it's the fish vs. Jets for Watson, though, because Miami also has Houston's second rounder this year available to trade. 

I stay out of these conversations for the most part, though, because I continue to not believe that JD will win any bidding war for Watson, that he values draft picks very highly, and that in the end he'll be deciding between his favorite QB in this year's draft vs. the best offer he gets for the #2. 

I think all that happy talk about Douglas being patient and building through the draft goes out the window if and when he becomes a finalist for an elite 25 year-old QB already signed to a reasonable contract extension wherein the cost is mostly the ill-gotten gains he reaped from dumping Jamal Adams on the Seahawks. “Cutting corners” would be investing two high picks into 33 year-old Matthew Stafford. And I think the Texans are pretty far removed from any dream scenario right now. This is triage.

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8 hours ago, BroadwayRay said:

Cimini is wrong as usual. The point system is just a guide and it goes out the window when the prized pick will land a team a QB. The #2 pick is worth much more than the value chart points. 

Agreed.  I don’t know why people think Houston’s back is against the wall....it isn’t.  The Stafford return probably made them smile because it was good news for them as far as getting a massive.  No matter what side of the fence you are on the reality is that the odds of a trade actually happening are pretty slim.  Douglas values draft picks and considering we have the worst roster in the league by far trading a bunch of high picks won’t help build the team.  So it’s ok to dream that’s what’s gear about being a fan but it’s just not realistic. If the Hets were in a better position roster wise then sure it would be great but that’s not the case 

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4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Hang on, let me check r/Zack Wilson stans

I think all that happy talk about Douglas being patient and building through the draft goes out the window if and when he becomes a finalist for an elite 25 year-old QB already signed to a reasonable contract extension wherein the cost is mostly the ill-gotten gains he reaped from dumping Jamal Adams on the Seahawks. “Cutting corners” would be investing two high picks into 33 year-old Matthew Stafford. And I think the Texans are pretty far removed from any dream scenario right now. This is triage.

If the #2 is of enough value to the Texans that Joe Douglas can get it done for the #2, #34, and next year's first (give or take), then I think he has to pull the trigger. It comes down to how aggressive Miami wants to be (if they're interested at all) and how the Texans evaluate the QBs. 

I do think that Joe Douglas acquired all those picks, and planned to acquire more by trading out of the #2, because at his heart he's committed to building thru the draft. Having a young franchise-caliber QB potentially available is obviously something he needs to investigate, but I don't think he's going to break the bank for him. The Jets have a ton of holes, still. Using multiple picks and a large chunk of cap on a single player limits his ability to address the team's many other needs. We all just witnessed Watson put up a pro bowl type season and finish 4-12 because his team sucked. JD can't gut his ability to improve the team leaving him with Watson and a crappy supporting cast. 

Fans here overrate the Jets defense. It's not as good as it might've been on paper. The team's anemic offensive efforts allowed their opponents to play conservative for 60 minutes and still outscore them. If Watson and the Jets start putting up four TDs a game, we'll all see just how vulnerable that defense actually is. 

It's a balancing act for Douglas. The QB is the key piece but, as evidenced by Watson's 2020, not the only one. 

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17 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Hang on, let me check r/Zack Wilson stans

 Isn't the whole point of this how the Texans franchise did not give Watson a voice? How the Texans refused to interview Saleh? But the Jets are more Watson friendly?

Why else would Watson want to go from the 4 win Texans to the 2 win Jets?

The whole thing makes zero sense for anyone involved 

It's almost like Jets fans are working from the conclusion that Watson will be traded to NY and works backwards 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

BUT, having an elite QB isn’t a luxury, it is a base necessity, and the scenario where we end up with Wilson is not, in any way, equivalent to the scenario where we end up with Watson. 

Timing.  Frankly, we’re not ready for a great quarterback to come in here, be happy, and turn us around.  We’re set to get Watson frustrated and injured and demand a trade. 

If we had a winning OL and stacked WR’s it would be perfect.  We can’t have those things if we get cap-strapped.  Putting an M3 engine in a Ford Escort actually makes the car worse, not better.  

SAR I

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8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The proposition that the #2 pick equals multiple first rounders only applies if the Jets are trading out of #2, in which case the Jets cease to be a viable trade partner for the Texans, presuming they’d want to draft Wilson to replace Watson. Cimini and others want to frame this as “actually, the Texans are already getting multiple ones by virtue of getting the #2 because of the chart value,” which is obviously fallacious. The Texans would simply be getting the better pick, which is why the Jets package is marginally better than the Dolphins package. 

I think the Dolphins are desperate to move on from Tua at any cost, where the Jets may truly believe that they can work with Sam. Maybe a smoke screen, but maybe not. The Fins probably love one QB in this draft above all else, and may be scared sh*tless that said guy will be taken at #2, whether it's by the Jets or somebody who trades up to take him. I would say if anybody is likely to overpay for Watson, it would be the Dolphins. I'm also starting to think that the league is getting close to thinking that there is a clear #2 QB in this draft, and that the rest of them are toss ups at best, and if you want him, you have to get to #2.

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20 minutes ago, slats said:

If the #2 is of enough value to the Texans that Joe Douglas can get it done for the #2, #34, and next year's first (give or take), then I think he has to pull the trigger. It comes down to how aggressive Miami wants to be (if they're interested at all) and how the Texans evaluate the QBs. 

I do think that Joe Douglas acquired all those picks, and planned to acquire more by trading out of the #2, because at his heart he's committed to building thru the draft. Having a young franchise-caliber QB potentially available is obviously something he needs to investigate, but I don't think he's going to break the bank for him. The Jets have a ton of holes, still. Using multiple picks and a large chunk of cap on a single player limits his ability to address the team's many other needs. We all just witnessed Watson put up a pro bowl type season and finish 4-12 because his team sucked. JD can't gut his ability to improve the team leaving him with Watson and a crappy supporting cast. 

Fans here overrate the Jets defense. It's not as good as it might've been on paper. The team's anemic offensive efforts allowed their opponents to play conservative for 60 minutes and still outscore them. If Watson and the Jets start putting up four TDs a game, we'll all see just how vulnerable that defense actually is. 

It's a balancing act for Douglas. The QB is the key piece but, as evidenced by Watson's 2020, not the only one. 

Douglas and Saleh both came from programs that were ultimately kneecapped by failing QBs, even despite having strong teams (on paper) besides. I don’t think Douglas is making the choice between Watson and zero draft picks, he’s making the choice between Watson and the #2 plus a couple of mid-firsts, which would hardly be emptying the barrels, especially for a GM with a scouting background. I don’t see how there’s any way Douglas or Saleh would opt to pass on Watson because they’re concerned about that 2022 first rounder. I can’t imagine they think they’re going to have a top five pick after this year in any scenario. 
 

As for the Texans going 4-12 last year, it seems pretty evident that there were a multitude of internal factors weighing down the team, including the firing of a lunatic coach, the elevation of a lunatic pastor into upper management, and the trade of a top three receiver in football. Despite all that, Watson put up an amazing statistical season. If Saleh is what we hope he is, I don’t see how the Jets descend into 2020 Texans-level dysfunction anytime soon. 

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24 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 Isn't the whole point of this how the Texans franchise did not give Watson a voice? How the Texans refused to interview Saleh? But the Jets are more Watson friendly?

Why else would Watson want to go from the 4 win Texans to the 2 win Jets?

The whole thing makes zero sense for anyone involved 

It's almost like Jets fans are working from the conclusion that Watson will be traded to NY and works backwards 

Who cares why Watson wants to come here? Maybe he’s insane? 

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2 minutes ago, section314 said:

I think the Dolphins are desperate to move on from Tua at any cost, where the Jets may truly believe that they can work with Sam. Maybe a smoke screen, but maybe not. The Fins probably love one QB in this draft above all else, and may be scared sh*tless that said guy will be taken at #2, whether it's by the Jets or somebody who trades up to take him. I would say if anybody is likely to overpay for Watson, it would be the Dolphins. I'm also starting to think that the league is getting close to thinking that there is a clear #2 QB in this draft, and that the rest of them are toss ups at best, and if you want him, you have to get to #2.

I feel like the Dolphins giving up on Tua is a thing everyone else has projected onto that franchise but which might not be a real thing. He won games and didn’t play terribly, and that’s a franchise led by dudes who are deeply embedded in their own press clippings about how great and smart they are. They chose Tua, drafted him, were universally praised for it, but now they get a mulligan? 

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2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Who cares why Watson wants to come here? Maybe he’s insane? 

Maybe

It's not rational to take the same money to pay new jersey income tax. Texas has no income tax. Think about all the bonus due to a player making 35 per season 

Which brings us to the jets, why would they want to pay Watson 35 million when they can pay darnold 5? It's not like they care about winning games 

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29 minutes ago, bitonti said:

 Isn't the whole point of this how the Texans franchise did not give Watson a voice? How the Texans refused to interview Saleh? But the Jets are more Watson friendly?

Why else would Watson want to go from the 4 win Texans to the 2 win Jets?

The whole thing makes zero sense for anyone involved 

It's almost like Jets fans are working from the conclusion that Watson will be traded to NY and works backwards 

He has the Jets as a target because he wants out (for whatever reason) and the Jets are one of the few teams that have the assets to make a trade work.

Anything else you hear is just noise.

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