Chris Simms: Deshaun Watson prepared to sit out 2021

[MykePM]

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Jets have 10 draft picks, 2 first rounders, a poor talent team (2 wins).  two first rounders next year.

Houston has watson, 8 draft picks, no first rounders and a poor talent team (4 wins). one 1st rounder next year.

The trade as being speculated on and after the trade the two teams simply change places.

We have the Qb and they have the picks.

But the jets are suddenly in a much better place than the texans for some reason?

How about factoring in the following:

1. The vast difference in cap space between the Jets and Texans

2. The difference between a young, highly-sought-after head coach who as a coordinator turned the worst defense in the league into one of the best vs. a 65-year-old head coach who has never been a coordinator and has arguably failed repeatedly as a positional coach (but is a nice guy)

3. The presence vs. absence of a high-level decision maker whose main credentials are "team chaplain" and reportedly harasses his players' families with a Manish level of creepiness. 

4. The difference in team morale, based on #2 and #3

5. The difference in attracting quality free agents based on #1 through #4

6. The ability of a top quarterback to elevate the talent around him vs. the ability of a struggling QB to mask it and drag it down

[Beerfish]

38 minutes ago, MykePM said:

How about factoring in the following:

1. The vast difference in cap space between the Jets and Texans

2. The difference between a young, highly-sought-after head coach who as a coordinator turned the worst defense in the league into one of the best vs. a 65-year-old head coach who has never been a coordinator and has arguably failed repeatedly as a positional coach (but is a nice guy)

3. The presence vs. absence of a high-level decision maker whose main credentials are "team chaplain" and reportedly harasses his players' families with a Manish level of creepiness. 

4. The difference in team morale, based on #2 and #3

5. The difference in attracting quality free agents based on #1 through #4

6. The ability of a top quarterback to elevate the talent around him vs. the ability of a struggling QB to mask it and drag it down

- FA is often fools gold, you can make some improvement but Fa is rarely a game changer.

- Saleh has proven nothing so far and the coaching aspect is a non factor here as it is going to b good or bad no matter who is the QB for the Jets. 

- totally not relevant to the jets

- totally not relevant to the jets

- this aspect is vastly over played.  FA follow the money and term

- watson did not elevate the texans last year, 4 wins.

[FidelioJet]

5 hours ago, Beerfish said:

proven talent Qb plus no talent plus no high picks to add talent  = 4 wins

This is exactly correct.

By giving up the picks and the extra cap space (I don't want to hear about him not costing that much this year - if the big numbers are next year you can't sign big contracts now). 

Losing the two advantages the Jets have - picks and cap space - and signing a QB that just lost 4 games is very worrisome. 

[MykePM]

3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

- FA is often fools gold, you can make some improvement but Fa is rarely a game changer.

- Saleh has proven nothing so far and the coaching aspect is a non factor here as it is going to b good or bad no matter who is the QB for the Jets. 

- totally not relevant to the jets

- totally not relevant to the jets

- this aspect is vastly over played.  FA follow the money and term

- watson did not elevate the texans last year, 4 wins.

So, coaching, organizational function vs. dysfunction, team morale, and salary cap / free agency are all “not relevant” or “non factors” when it comes to wins and losses.  Got it.  I’m sure if I had mentioned how horrible the Houston defense was last year, I would be told that defensive performance is not relevant to wins and losses also. 

[football guy]

Be weary of every story you read between now and March 15- especially with no combine this year. Pretty much all of it will be designed to generate click-bait material

[Beerfish]

9 minutes ago, MykePM said:

So, coaching, organizational function vs. dysfunction, team morale, and salary cap / free agency are all “not relevant” or “non factors” when it comes to wins and losses.  Got it.  I’m sure if I had mentioned how horrible the Houston defense was last year, I would be told that defensive performance is not relevant to wins and losses also. 

No they are ALL factors but they have nothing to do with deshaun watson vs any other strategy we have for getting good.

The jets defense was not great last year, do we give darnold a pass for that?

 

[MykePM]

16 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No they are ALL factors but they have nothing to do with deshaun watson vs any other strategy we have for getting good.

The jets defense was not great last year, do we give darnold a pass for that?

 

If you’re trying to use the Texans’ 4-12 record as an argument for why Deshaun Watson can’t elevate a team (which you did), the other reasons why the team only had 4 wins are certainly relevant.

If Sam had put up the numbers that Watson did last year, and we only won 4 games, I would most definitely point to the poor defense as a reason for a losing record.

[Church01]

15 hours ago, bitonti said:

Yeh wouldn't want to be Bell... Who is *checks notes* playing in the super bowl this weekend 

Any player could be lucky enough to get traded or picked up by a team that makes it to the super bowl and be a non- factor. Bell hurt his career by sitting out that year whether he is in the SB or not.

[bitonti]

6 hours ago, Church01 said:

Any player could be lucky enough to get traded or picked up by a team that makes it to the super bowl and be a non- factor. Bell hurt his career by sitting out that year whether he is in the SB or not.

Bell was about to be run into the ground and Pittsburgh said so before the season 

Instead of 400 touches and retirement, bell got another contract and likely a ring this weekend 

How did the holdout hurt bell exactly? 

[Sonny Werblin]

10 hours ago, MykePM said:

If you’re trying to use the Texans’ 4-12 record as an argument for why Deshaun Watson can’t elevate a team (which you did), the other reasons why the team only had 4 wins are certainly relevant.

If Sam had put up the numbers that Watson did last year, and we only won 4 games, I would most definitely point to the poor defense as a reason for a losing record.

Totally agree. And if Darnold did that, you'd believe Darnold would be thinking, lets get a good HC in here who knows how to fix our D and we'll have a quick turnaround in 2021. So, why would Watson be advocating interviewing Bienemy? He should have wanted Saleh, Staley or Frazier -- Right? It makes no sense.

[Sonny Werblin]

BTW, if Watson holds out, the Texans don't have to pay him and he doesn't count against the cap, right?

And the Texans will surely have an excellent shot at ending up with the worst record in the NFL and the top pick.

Actually, it makes more sense for the Texans in the long run to have Watson sit out 2021 and then trade him next off-season. 

[Sonny Werblin]

Watson' threatened hold out reminds me of my neighbor -- we'll call him John --  and the mailman's efforts to get him to shovel around his mailbox.

After a storm, the mailman left a note in neighborhood mailboxes explaining that if you did shovel out your mailbox to provide him with easy access, he would not deliver your mail. Everyone in the neighborhood dutifully complied. Everyone except John. The mailman proceeded to leave a series of notes in John's mailbox escalating in seriousness asserting that he could not and would not deliver John's mail unless John shoveled out his mailbox. John found this hilarious because the mailman was putting these notes in his mailbox but refusing to put the mail in the box. (Insert your favorite whitty government worker joke here). Anyway, one day the mailman was driving by while John was in his driveway. The mailman pulled up to the driveway, pointed to the embankment of snow in front of John's mailbox and shouted to John, "If you don't shovel out your mailbox I will not deliver your mail." John responded very casually, "I don't fu*cking care", turned and walk away toward his house. This occurred several years ago. John still doesn't shovel out his mailbox, but he does get his mail.

You see, John seriously did not give a sh*t if he got his mail or not and the mailman was just hurting himself by holding on to John's mail and not delivering it. 

So, when Watson tells the Texans he will be holding out if not traded, my advice to the Texans is to very casually respond "We don't fu*cking care." The only person Watson hurts by sitting out is himself. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Watson' threatened hold out reminds me of my neighbor -- we'll call him John --  and the mailman's efforts to get him to shovel around his mailbox.

After a storm, the mailman left a note in neighborhood mailboxes explaining that if you did shovel out your mailbox to provide him with easy access, he would not deliver your mail. Everyone in the neighborhood dutifully complied. Everyone except John. The mailman proceeded to leave a series of notes in John's mailbox escalating in seriousness asserting that he could not and would not deliver John's mail unless John shoveled out his mailbox. John found this hilarious because the mailman was putting these notes in his mailbox but refusing to put the mail in the box. (Insert your favorite whitty government worker joke here). Anyway, one day the mailman was driving by while John was in his driveway. The mailman pulled up to the driveway, pointed to the embankment of snow in front of John's mailbox and shouted to John, "If you don't shovel out your mailbox I will not deliver your mail." John responded very casually, "I don't ******* care", turned and walk away toward his house. This occurred several years ago. John still doesn't shovel out his mailbox, but he does get his mail.

You see, John seriously did not give a sh*t if he got his mail or not and the mailman was just hurting himself by holding on to John's mail and not delivering it. 

So, when Watson tells the Texans he will be holding out if not traded, my advice to the Texans is to very casually respond "We don't ******* care." The only person Watson hurts by sitting out is himself. 

 

So you support people who purposely act like a d*ck and don't participate in basic societal rules for the benefit of others?

[Jetsfan80]

29 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

BTW, if Watson holds out, the Texans don't have to pay him and he doesn't count against the cap, right?

And the Texans will surely have an excellent shot at ending up with the worst record in the NFL and the top pick.

Actually, it makes more sense for the Texans in the long run to have Watson sit out 2021 and then trade him next off-season. 

Except this never actually happens in the NFL.  This is mutually assured destruction for both parties.  Watson misses out on a year of game checks.  The Texans end up with no 1st round pick in the 2021 draft and AJ McCarron as their starting QB.

[Sonny Werblin]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

So you support people who purposely act like a d*ck and don't participate in basic societal rules for the benefit of others?

Yes, I do. John genuinely did not want his mail. He does everything on line.

[Sonny Werblin]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Except this never actually happens in the NFL.  This is mutually assured destruction for both parties.  Watson misses out on a year of game checks.  The Texans end up with no 1st round pick in the 2021 draft and AJ McCarron as their starting QB.

Right. Never Happens. ? Give it some thought, you'll get there.

[Biggs]

How do you prepare to sit out?  Study film of former players who sat out?  Hire a coach on sitting out?  Maybe he could monetize the sit out by becoming the spokes person for Lazy Boy?

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Right. Never Happens. ? Give it some thought, you'll get there.

So you can find me a young franchise QB that held out for a full season and then got traded a year later?

We're not talking about the likes of Le'Veon Bell here, who wasn't even traded.  Or Sean Gilbert, John Riggins or Bo Jackson.  Those were an eternity ago when it comes to relevance to today's NFL.

[Jetsfan80]

27 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Yes, I do. John genuinely did not want his mail. He does everything on line.

And?  The postal worker still has a job to do.  This was clearly a d*ck move.  

[Sonny Werblin]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And?  The postal worker still has a job to do.  This was clearly a d*ck move.  

Not really. You are getting very emotional about this. Are you a mailman?

[Sonny Werblin]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So you can find me a young franchise QB that held out for a full season and then got traded a year later?

We're not talking about the likes of Le'Veon Bell here, who wasn't even traded.  Or Sean Gilbert, John Riggins or Bo Jackson.  Those were an eternity ago when it comes to relevance to today's NFL.

Nice, after the fact limitation.

Getting back to your mutually assured destruction. How does watson sitting out hurt the texans?

[Gangrene]

22 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Maybe he could monetize the sit out by becoming the spokes person for Lazy Boy?

That's a genius marketing idea. Deshaun from the lazy boy, Deshaun endorsing Audible.com listening to 'War & Peace', Deshaun teaching meditation courses online. 

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Nice, after the fact limitation.

Getting back to your mutually assured destruction. How does watson sitting out hurt the texans?

It's not limitation.  It's just not meaningful to compare a young franchise QB holding out for a full season to Running Backs and a DT from decades ago.  Especially since Jackson had baseball to fall back on.  

As for the Texans, like I said:  They'd be sacrificing the 2021 draft capital they could get back in a trade.  Hence, they'd enter the draft with no 1st rounder and no real hope of upgrading on their current QB2, AJ McCarron.

It would be a lost season AND lost resources.  I mean, do you think the # 2 pick would even be a remote chance of being available to them in NEXT draft if they wait a year to trade him?

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Not really. You are getting very emotional about this. Are you a mailman?

I am not, but you're being awfully condescending in this exchange and I don't much appreciate it.  Supporting a person being a d**k to others doing their job as part of that discussion doesn't help matters.  It's a strange thing to glorify.

[Sonny Werblin]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's not limitation.  It's just not meaningful to compare a young franchise QB holding out for a full season to Running Backs and a DT from decades ago.  Especially since Jackson had baseball to fall back on.  

As for the Texans, like I said:  They'd be sacrificing the 2021 draft capital they could get back in a trade.  Hence, they'd enter the draft with no 1st rounder and no real hope of upgrading on their current QB2, AJ McCarron.

It would be a lost season AND lost resources.  I mean, do you think the # 2 pick would even be a remote chance of being available to them in NEXT draft if they wait a year to trade him?

the bottom line is that 25 year old pro bowl QBs are such a rarity that you do not trade them. The Texans hold all of the cards. He plays for them or no one. 

[Sonny Werblin]

30 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I am not, but you're being awfully condescending in this exchange and I don't much appreciate it.  Supporting a person being a d**k to others doing their job as part of that discussion doesn't help matters.  It's a strange thing to glorify.

you really need to calm down about this. If you read the original post, you'd see the mailman had no problem getting his "notes" into john's mailbox. So, who is really being the dick? I think the mailman is.

[Church01]

On 2/4/2021 at 9:26 AM, bitonti said:

Bell was about to be run into the ground and Pittsburgh said so before the season 

Instead of 400 touches and retirement, bell got another contract and likely a ring this weekend 

How did the holdout hurt bell exactly? 

He is not the player he was before the hold out. We seen that first hand, so that's how it hurt him. He might win a ring and I hope he does but his play suffered because of the year off. Maybe he will be healthier when he retires.

 

 

[32EBoozer]

On 2/4/2021 at 11:27 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

Hence, they'd enter the draft with no 1st rounder and no real hope of upgrading on their current QB2, AJ McCarron.

JF80...... to strengthen your point, Texans do not have a pick until the 3rd round this year. @Sonny Werblin

Edited February 6, 2021 by 32EBoozer

[Sonny Werblin]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

JF80...... to strengthen your point, Texans do not have a pick until the 3rd round this year. @Sonny Werblin

All the more lack of ammunition to ensure they suck this season with Watson sitting out and elevate to the top of the NFL draft in 2022, where they will not only have Watson to trade for draft capital, but will have their pick of Spencer Rattler, Tyler Slough, Sam Howell, Kedon Slovis and Bo Nix. 

[32EBoozer]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

All the more lack of ammunition to ensure they suck this season with Watson sitting out and elevate to the top of the NFL draft in 2022, where they will not only have Watson to trade for draft capital, but will have their pick of Spencer Rattler, Tyler Slough, Sam Howell, Kedon Slovis and Bo Nix. 

So waste a draft year, go full tank mode then trade Watson next offseason? Season ticket holders will be furious, lame duck coaching staff will be angry, players will be angry and Watson will be pulling a Jamaal social media campaign all season while still retaining his no trade clause. 
Sonny Werblin was a visionary like Les Paul and Steve Jobs. From his time finding great success in the entertainment industry to establishing the AFL with Al Davis to signing Namath and building the Meadowlands complex.

You lack vision & sully the memory of the great Sonny Werblin!

“You sir are no Sonny Werblin”

[Sonny Werblin]

1 minute ago, 32EBoozer said:

So waste a draft year, go full tank mode then trade Watson next offseason? Season ticket holders will be furious, lame duck coaching staff will be angry, players will be angry and Watson will be pulling a Jamaal social media campaign all season while still retaining his no trade clause. 
Sonny Werblin was a visionary like Les Paul and Steve Jobs. From his time finding great success in the entertainment industry to establishing the AFL with Al Davis to signing Namath and building the Meadowlands complex.

You lack vision & sully the memory of the great Sonny Werblin!

“You sir are no Sonny Werblin”

Sonny knows opportunity when he sees it. And the Texans are an opportunity to rebuild the right way. 

The Texans are a mess. O'Brien and Watson have totally screwed them. Building the Texans into a winner without Watson and with the crap they have is like trying to complete a construction project after the first builder left with the job halfway done and done completely wrong. Sure you can finish the building but it will never be as good as you tearing it down and doing the project from scratch the right way.  

If the Texans want to rebuild the right way without Watson, tanking the 2021 season is the way forward. Sometime it is necessary to take a step back before you can take two steps forward. 

[nycdan]

37 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

All the more lack of ammunition to ensure they suck this season with Watson sitting out and elevate to the top of the NFL draft in 2022, where they will not only have Watson to trade for draft capital, but will have their pick of Spencer Rattler, Tyler Slough, Sam Howell, Kedon Slovis and Bo Nix. 

Just a guess, but I think Watson's trade value would be lower after a year of sitting out, both because of rust and the optics of it all.  Bell did okay for himself after sitting out, but that required Mike Maccagnan to perform a miracle for him. 

More likely, he'll sit out the first 10 games and then show up for the last 6, which I believe is what he would need to advance his contract.  Given that he is getting a lower salary this year, it would actually be pretty smart of him to do it and wouldn't hurt him that much financially.

All in all, this is not a good path for the Texans.  If Watson is willing to sit (which I am not convinced of yet), they probably need to trade him.

[Sonny Werblin]

Just now, nycdan said:

Just a guess, but I think Watson's trade value would be lower after a year of sitting out, both because of rust and the optics of it all.  Bell did okay for himself after sitting out, but that required Mike Maccagnan to perform a miracle for him. 

More likely, he'll sit out the first 10 games and then show up for the last 6, which I believe is what he would need to advance his contract.  Given that he is getting a lower salary this year, it would actually be pretty smart of him to do it and wouldn't hurt him that much financially.

All in all, this is not a good path for the Texans.  If Watson is willing to sit (which I am not convinced of yet), they probably need to trade him.

What do you think of Watson's trade value about six game into the season? 

[nycdan]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

What do you think of Watson's trade value about six game into the season? 

Interesting question.  I think it's harder for the acquiring team because they are six weeks in and making a switch while getting him used to a new system is probably another 1-2 weeks of learning curve.  Just guessing on that, but it seems likely.  At that point of the season, it might also lower the number of teams that are interested in making the mid-season switch.  Say you are 5-3 and your starting QB (e.g. Tua or Sam) is playing well.  Can you really do that as easily then?  Would you pay as much at that point?  

Also, some of the teams interested now might draft a rookie in the 1st round.  If we took Fields or Wilson, are we really going to go all-in for Watson at that point?

So I do think some teams would still be all over it, but his value would likely be lower - especially if the Jets and Dolphins have reasons to pass at that point.

[Jet Nut]

On 2/2/2021 at 8:28 PM, Joe Willie White Shoes said:

This isn't news. It's Simms' opinion, which means nothing.  

Simms saying a close source told him Watson would sit out isnt isnt Simms giving an opinion.