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Trey Lance or Bust Baby!!!


Charlie Brown
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3 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I really like Lance. He was my #2 QB before the season. I wish we were able to see more of him. I'm worried about his 17 starts. Is he going to be a Kyler Murray/Cam Newton or will he be a Sanchez/Haskins? 

Kid is an athlete. I like that he’s not be a run first type QB. And his burst 10-15 yards is ridiculous. And he’s strong as a bull.  Definitely a project but he already has way better physical skills than Darnold. Look like he has a pretty strong arm, stronger than Darnold but who doesn’t.  Has kind of a Randal Cunningham type vibe to him. I could definitely see him develop in today’s NFL. 

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7 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

Look I know all about Watson and why he would be great but the odds IMO of the Jets getting him are low low low.......

I also think Zack and Justin are nice but the DUDE we need to get is TREY LANCE!!!!

He is underrated .......trade down within the ten and go get him......

:) 

Trey Lance Scouting Report 
By Charlie Campbell 

 

Strengths: 

  • Tremendous skill set 
  • Powerful arm 
  • Can fire fastballs into tight windows 
  • Arm strength to challenge defenses downfield 
  • Throws a good deep ball 
  • Impressive deep-ball precision 
  • Aggressive to push the ball downfield 
  • Throws well in the short, quick passing game 
  • Leads receivers downfield for more yards after the catch 
  • Accurate 
  • Poise 
  • Stays calm with rush closing around him 
  • Keeps his eyes downfield despite rush closing in on him 
  • Good athlete 
  • Mobility 
  • Uses his feet to buy time 
  • Strong build makes him tough to sack, tackle 
  • Keeps his eyes downfield while scrambling 
  • Hard-charging downhill runner 
  • Will lower his shoulder and run over tacklers 
  • Dynamic runner 
  • True dual-threat quarterback 
  • Can throw off platform 
  • Good speed for a quarterback 
  • Avoids turnovers overall 
  • Upside
    Weaknesses: 
  • Raw 
  • Lacks experience 
  • Field vision 
  • Locks on to primary read 
  • Takes off running when first read is covered 
  • Slow to work through progressions 
  • Has to speed up the process 
  • Needs to get comfortable throwing into tight windows 
  • Summary: North Dakota State has dominated the FCS, ripping off a string of National Championships. The Bison have produced a lot of good NFL talent, including Philadelphia Eagles franchise quarterback Carson Wentz, and Lance could continue that tradition in the 2021 NFL Draft. As a redshirt freshman in 2019, Lance led the Bison to an undefeated season and another National Championship. He produced a huge year, completing 67 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns - with zero interceptions. He also ran for 1,100 yards and picked up 14 rushing touchdowns - his rushing yardage was actually much larger, but college football deducts sack yardage from a quarterback's rushing totals. 

    North Dakota State played only one game in 2020 due to COVID-19 limitations, and Lance looked rusty against Central Arkansas, but he also flashed his big-time skill set. Lance completed 15-of-30 passes in 2020 for 149 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. He also turned 15 carries into 143 yards and two touchdowns. 

    From a skill set perspective, Lance fits in with other recent first-round prospects. His size, arm strength, running ability, and big-play potential are in line with other recent first-round picks such as Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Jordan Love. 

    As a passer, Lance definitely has next-level ability. He has a strong arm capable of making all the throws for the pro level. Lance shows the ability to fire fastballs to the sideline and has no problem airing out deep balls. Overall, Lance has good accuracy, and his deep-ball precision is very impressive. He consistently lofts passes downfield to lead his receivers over the top of coverage. Lance also shows the ability to function in the quick passing game in the short part of the field, firing some bullets to move the ball. 
  • One of Lance's impressive traits from 2019, especially for such a young player, was his poise. Lance is very calm in the pocket, and when rush is closing around him, it seems to be a non-factor to him. He will use his legs to buy time and does a nice job of keeping his eyes downfield. When he can't dodge tacklers, he can rely on his big frame to help him shake defenders free. Lance displayed amazing pocket presence as a redshirt freshman. 

    The poise plays into Lance making good decisions and protecting the football. He had some breaks go his way in 2019, and he would have thrown some interceptions if he had made some of the same throws in the NFL, or at a higher level of college football, but overall, he does a nice job of placing his passes where his receivers can make a play and is not reckless with the football. 

    The mobility factors into Lance being a dangerous threat on the ground. His running ability jumps off the screen. Lance is a hard-charging runner who shows quickness and a burst to hit the hole, plus he is a load to tackle. Lance regularly would lower a shoulder and flat out run over defenders. He could be a running dual threat quarterback at the next level. As a pro, Lance should run less than he does in college, and that is something that will have to be coached out of him to reduce his risk of injury. 

    Lance is a very young player, playing just one game as a redshirt sophomore in 2020, so it isn't surprising that he has some raw elements to his game and needs development. The most pressing issue to address is field vision. Lance has issues seeing the field, as he can lock onto his primary read, take off running when his first read is covered, and be slow to look off and work through his progressions. Lance has to speed up the process for looking through his potential targets in the NFL. At North Dakota State, Lance had receivers running wide open a lot as well. For the next level, he will need to get more comfortable throwing into tight windows. He flashes that ability, but given his level of competition, tight-window comfort is something that will probably need to work on at the pro level. 

    Lance has the talent to be a good NFL starter, but given his lack of playing time and development, his pro team will need to be patient in order to not waste the raw talent that Lance possesses. 
    Player Comparison: Josh Allen. Lance has a unique style of play and is a tough player to compare. He reminds evaluators of Josh Allen at times, but Lance doesn't have Allen's size. Lance is like a shorter version of Allen in that they have similar styles of play and are coming to the NFL from a lower level of collegiate competition. If Lance pans out in the NFL, I could see him being a quarterback similar to Allen.
  •  
    Oh Josh Allen - the guy everyone and their mother said would be a bust
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No way do I pick this guy at #2, but I'm not picking anyone in this years QB class at #2, so that said it's not a bad thing. BTW, for those saying how can you pass TL at #2, I didn't, he was picked by the Jags at #1....

Anyway to my point, I wish there wasn't another team out there that would pick this guy before 23, because that's where I'd love to take T. Lance, but I think he'll be way gone before that. Again, like I've said over and over. This is the perfect draft to trade down and amass more picks.

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1 hour ago, PepPep said:

He is the Josh Allen of this draft. If he goes to the right team that can build around him properly and develop him, he will be a dangerous weapon- eventually, with a game very similar to Allen's. He's actually much more accurate than Allen but I expect that accuracy to drop and INT rate to skyrocket in the NFL, at least his first few years in the NFL. Does he make sense for the Jets? I dunno. If JD trades down and takes him at 8 or so, I have absolutely no issue with it. 

You gotta swing for the Fences at QB. The Jared Goff's and Derek Carr's of the world isn't getting any team anywhere. I'd be pumped if they chose Lance after a trade down. 

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9 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

You gotta swing for the Fences at QB. The Jared Goff's and Derek Carr's of the world isn't getting any team anywhere. I'd be pumped if they chose Lance after a trade down. 

Can you imagine JD trades down with the Falcons to #4 so they can get their home grown kid (Fields) at #2, netting us an extra 2nd rounder and more, then moving down again with the Lions to #7 so they can take Wilson at #4, netting another second rounder and more. Then we take Lance. I would not mind that scenario. Lance with another first rounder, 3 second rounders, 2 third rounders.  

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Lance and Fields were the two QB's I was really excited to see play this year.  Unfortunately we didn't get to see Lance.

IMO Lance is first  a SUPER athlete, who also happens to have an excelent arm.  If you look at his full game videos you'll see him make most of his big plays with his feet, and athletic ability.  Just when you decide he's a great RB, he'll throw a perfect pass showing big arm talent.  Kid has tremendous talent.   

I sure wish we had seen more of him this season, because he is RAW.  IMO he is the classic boom or bust QB depending on how he takes to NFL coaching.  Suspect he won't get out of the top 10, could even go before Fields.  (JMO)  If the Jets were to take him around 10 or so, I'd be OK with it.   I'd recomend doing somethig that is unusual in the NFL.  I'd hire an assistant QB coach who did nothing but work with Lance.  This would be a true red shirt year for him.   Guy might just be worth it.  

 

 

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15 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Lance and Fields were the two QB's I was really excited to see play this year.  Unfortunately we didn't get to see Lance.

IMO Lance is first  a SUPER athlete, who also happens to have an excelent arm.  If you look at his full game videos you'll see him make most of his big plays with his feet, and athletic ability.  Just when you decide he's a great RB, he'll throw a perfect pass showing big arm talent.  Kid has tremendous talent.   

I sure wish we had seen more of him this season, because he is RAW.  IMO he is the classic boom or bust QB depending on how he takes to NFL coaching.  Suspect he won't get out of the top 10, could even go before Fields.  (JMO)  If the Jets were to take him around 10 or so, I'd be OK with it.   I'd recomend doing somethig that is unusual in the NFL.  I'd hire an assistant QB coach who did noting but work with Lance.  This would be a true red shirt year for him.   Guy might just be worth it.  

 

 

I actually think once the dust settles the top 4 QBs will go in the top 8, with Lance not falling past Carolina.

Jags take TL #1. Then Jets, Falcons, Lions, Panthers are 4 teams in the top 8 that could be looking for a QB with 3 top tier QBs left on the board. I would not be surprised if the Jets took Wilson, the Dolphins took Sewell, the Falcons took Fields and the Lions or Panthers took Lance.  

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3 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I want to play a little devil's advocate on this one.  

What is the difference between 2019 Lance and 2020 Wilson? 

To me Wilson is the far more polished passer intermediate passer and has far more flair to his game IMO.

Lance is by far the bigger stronger armed player and that end is not close.

Also Lance is in general less stingy with turning the ball over but Zack seems to have improved that aspect of his game.

I would be very happy with Zack and am just a little concerned about his size and injury history.  

Lance bigger risk but may have bigger upside....

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To me Wilson is the far more polished passer intermediate passer and has far more flair to his game IMO.
Lance is by far the bigger stronger armed player and that end is not close.
Also Lance is in general less stingy with turning the ball over but Zack seems to have improved that aspect of his game.
I would be very happy with Zack and am just a little concerned about his size and injury history.  
Lance bigger risk but may have bigger upside....


I think their rise is similar, and how people view them.

In PFF grades (I know we hate them) both graded out as elite (2019 for Lance).

Both only really have one really good year on tape

Both have very good arm talent, Wilson is better, but Lance has good talent as well.

Both are mobile, Lance has better mobility, but Wilson can move as well.

Both played extraordinarily well against weak competition.

If Lance came out last year, he's this year's Wilson. The statistical stud with physical gifts. I know the reaction to Lance is mostly "No" in this thread, but what makes Wilson better than Lance? If you look at just their breakout years, both put up stud numbers by pretty much every measure possible.

I heard this on a podcast (not sure which) but they both play with a swagger. You see it in Mahomes, but you also saw it on Manziel, the belief that you can take risky shots because your competition isn't that great. With both Lance/Wilson, I see bad passes that go incomplete or caught because their arm talent is just so much better than defenses are used to facing.

What happens when that's no longer the case? Will they still take those risks? If they don't, are their strengths limited?

I feel like if Lance had his 2019 season this year instead of last year, there would be very similar hype around him. They both went from "I know Lawrence/Fields but this is a guy you need to talk about" with Lance gaining wide spread love last year. Same rgus year, Wilson went with the same path.

But what sets apart Wilson from Lance? I don't know why there's as much resistance to Lance, but acceptance of Wilson.



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This is all very reasonable.  I can't explain the seeming cultish fascination with Wilson after one strong season in a weak division.  I see some very accurate passes and if I squint hard, I can see why some people are talking about a Rodgers-like upside to him.  But I see that possibility as something like 5% with a big chunk of the outcomes being more like Chad Pennington.  Accurate, decent size but not exactly a strong runner, and just one more injury away from mediocrity.  

Lance is definitely one of those QBs you look at and try to separate the athlete from the passer.  He obviously had incredible numbers (0 INTs!) in 2019, but like Wilson, it was against competition that couldn't hold a candle to the type of talent Fields and Jones played against.  Even Burrow with his one great year played in the SEC.  

The weird part is that the people that like Wilson often are reluctant to even acknowledge any of this. Some seem convinced he is a lock to be a star based on his one great season.  I'm not even convinced Lawrence will be a star, but I'm far more inclined to believe that than Wilson.  Lance feels like a slightly riskier version of Fields.  Very high upside, but needs a year of refinement and then has a shot to be very good, if not great.  I guess the question of whether I prefer Fields, or Lance plus another 2nd this year and a 1st next year (possibly) is the tough one.

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15 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

Look I know all about Watson and why he would be great but the odds IMO of the Jets getting him are low low low.......

I also think Zack and Justin are nice but the DUDE we need to get is TREY LANCE!!!!

He is underrated .......trade down within the ten and go get him......

:) 

You need to stop snorting the dust off Linus's blanket. Please. I care

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27 minutes ago, win4ever said:

 


I think their rise is similar, and presents a similar risk.

 

The risk with Wilson is he would cost the second pick overall and we would be passing on guys like Sewell, Chase etc for him.  If Wilson’s shoulder injuries come back he’s going to make D-Rob and Dee Milliner look like a walk in the park

 

Lance is probably there at 23 so it’s a mitigated risk.  Ditto for Mac Jones who is the second best Qb in this class after Trevor

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