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Indianapolis Colts Model


BCJet

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15 minutes ago, BCJet said:

For the people that want to keep our picks instead of trading for Watson and especially those who want to build a dominant OL by using #2 overall on Sewell, there is actually a live model of this plan right now - the Colts.

When the colts traded out of 3 to move back to 6 they received 3 second round picks.  They knocked their first 2 picks out of the park with the best guard in the NFL and Darious Leonard, an elite LB.  They took Braden Smith (more OL) who has been a solid starter at RT and occasionally guard and then drafted 2 pass rushers with their other 2nd's who havent been great.  But I think everyone can agree that 2 all-pro players and one starter out of 5 top 60 picks is excellent work.

The following year they used their 3 2nd round picks (traded down again I believe) to take a CB, DE and WR all of whom have been ok but not great.

They did the above because they had a franchise QB in place which led them to a wild card win and divisional round loss with in 2018 as their rookies got acclimated. 

Once they lost their QB (through no fault of their own), they promptly went 7-9 and didnt make the playoffs with a "stopgap" QB and elite OL.

Last year they spent $25 million to solve their QB problems and used their first 2 picks on offensive skill positions which got them to 11 wins and a WC loss.

And here they sit still trying to fill their QB role.  

Now could they have taken Sam or Rosen and been in a worse situation - yep absolutely.  But can anyone say the colts wouldnt be better off if they had traded down, accumulated picks AND took Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson that they would be better off today?  And that is factoring in that the guard they took is on a legitimate Hall of Fame track as the best guard in the league and Leonard is an elite LB.

Im not advocating that JD should not focus on the offensive and defensive lines, but if you dont fill QB, your ceiling in the NFL is limited and that is IF you hit on your picks. 

In short the Colts model is build the team buy the QB, the Vikings tried the same thing didn’t work maybe Indy can have a better outcome.

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14 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

I prefer the Kansas City model.

Which was what?  They had a decent qb in place, built a competitive team around Smith and then traded to move up to take the qb that was not as desired as others.  I could get on board with that.  I still think that means trade down from #2 and accumulate talent.

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9 minutes ago, Butterfield said:

Which was what?  They had a decent qb in place, built a competitive team around Smith and then traded to move up to take the qb that was not as desired as others.  I could get on board with that.  I still think that means trade down from #2 and accumulate talent.

 

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37 minutes ago, LionelRichie said:

If anything, it shows that you can’t tie up all of the salary cap in the QB position.  The colts signed rivers but kept Brissette which was like 40m+.  Meanwhile Mahomes and Alllen are still on rookie QB deals.    

The Cap space used on Watson would be less on the Jets as it will be on the Texans. I think having 15%  avg. of your cap space tied up in a FQb for 5 years is a heck of a deal. A '21 & '22  first round pick and several additional in the 2nd-4th rounds those years as well as a good amount of cap space moving forward will also enable you to build around your biggest star since Namath. 

I don't see how JD/Saleh/Lefleur can look at the Houston saga and not make Watson happen. JJ Watt is complaining, Watson is removing any Texans related images from his social media pages and is radio silent with a new GM who came from an organization that puts team over player and I think you have the making of an unprecedented trade for a FQb in his prime. New GM wants HIS players and the opportunity to place his stamp on the organization.

What 1st year GM wants to stick around until late Day 2 of the draft to make a selection. What new GM wants to be strangled by the cap in year 1? What GM wants the possibility of a holdout or an unhappy start player causing division in the locker room and questioning every trade (Watt) & draft selection? The #2 overall pick and additional cap space Watson, plus an added bad contract to the Jets, allows the new GM incredible flexibility to stay and hit the reset with a new young/cheap Qb or trade out of #2 and rebuild his organization.image.thumb.png.a5fa1b80d16b8184fd1880780cbd498f.png

  

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The Colts model works just fine, the GM is just scared to draft a QB. They should've signed Rivers and drafted a QB and let him sit a year. 

But it's a nice situation to have that you can just plug in a soon to be retired QB and grind out 11 wins and a playoff spot. 

They should be doing everything they can to acquire a top 15 QB.

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Funny that Schefter thinks Indianapolis is a potential landing spot for Darnold.

I'd send him there for a late 1st or just give us back those 2nd round picks we spent to get Darnold.

 

The Spun

NFL Analyst: 1 Team “Makes Too Much Sense” In Potential Sam Darnold Trade

Andrew McCarty  20 mins ago
The Spun logoNFL Analyst: 1 Team “Makes Too Much Sense” In Potential Sam Darnold Trade

On Tuesday night, ESPN’s Adam Schefter revealed what football fans have been wondering for the past few months: what would a trade for New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold look like.

Other analysts suggested a Day 2 pick, like a late second or early third-round pick. That was during the 2020 season when Darnold was struggling in the second year of Adam Gase’s offense.

However, Schefter is much more bullish on Darnold’s prospects in a potential trade. “Do I think they’re getting a top 10 pick for Sam Darnold? No,” Schefter said on Tuesday night. “Do I think they could get a first round pick, a later first round pick? Yes.”

Not long after Schefter’s report came out, NFL analyst Matt Miller offered a potential landing spot. “Indianapolis makes too much sense,” he said on Wednesday morning.

Earlier this offseason, Schefter predicted Darnold would remain with the Jets for the 2021 season. “I think the plan would be to proceed with Sam Darnold as the quarterback for the New York Jets in 2021,” Schefter said.

However, there are plenty of teams that could be interested in the young quarterback. The Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints could all opt to pursue Darnold.

Of course, a blockbuster trade for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson awaits as well. That could alter the number of teams involved in the Sam Darnold sweepstakes – if the Jets trade him at all.

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46 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I know that everyone wants the Jets to be great, and not just ordinary great but multiple SB winning great. And to do so, you need a great QB. I am right there with you on that, but I am not sure if people understand what a tall order that is. And I wondered if great QB's are simply born, or if they are borne of being placed in a great situation. So, I took a look at the historical records.

This is the 55th Superbowl. That makes 110 opportunities for a QB to start a SB. 42 QB's were one and done in making it to the SB. Of these 42, Marino is the only loser to make the HOF. The one and done winners in the HOF are Namath, Unitas and Stabler. So, 4 of the one and dones were, in the eyes of the NFL. "great". That leaves 38 one and done QB's (winners and losers) ranging from Mark Rypien to Boomer Esiason, from Phill Simms to Neill O'Donnel, from Jim McMahon to Billy Kilmer, etc... (you get the idea, "meh" QBs). 

68, or 61.8%, of the 110 SB starts over the past 55 years were made by only 21 QBs, each of whom has made multiple SB starts. The overwhelming majority are in the HOF or will be (Brady and Peyton). The one's who will not be in the HOF are Craig Morton, Joe Theisman and Jim Plunkett. The jury is still out on Eli, Ben, Wilson and Mahomes (but I would not bet against any of them).

What does this tell us. That those (pretty much everyone) who believe a great QB is the key to multiple championships are dead-on correct. However, the obsession with finding that QB at all costs is misplaced because in 55 years only 12 QBs have won multiple SBs. Heck only 21 QBs have even started multiple SBs. This is needle in the haystack kind of stuff. So, rather than putting all of your hope in the QB lottery that is finding a truly great QB, build the team. If you do it right, you may just become a perennial playoff team that wins a SB like the Ravens , and if you're lucky the circumstance will deliver you the right QB at the right time and your team can become the Aikman Cowboys, Montana Niners, Bradshaw Steelers or Mahomes Chiefs. Those guys just didn't happen. They became who they are because of their teams had it all -- Management, Coaching and Players. 

So, based on this, my conclusion is you build the team first, add the QB later and hope for the best. The NFL is bereft of any accounts of one QB dragging a mediocre coaching staff and untalented teammates to multiple championships. Heck, if Aaron Rodgers can't do it, who can? And I don't think that any of the 21 QBs who appeared in multiple SBs were obtained by a team trading away a ton of draft capital. Moreover, not a heck of a lot of them (I think 6) were even a top 3 pick in the draft. 

In the words of our HC, there are no shortcuts. So, put away the QB game film and fairy dust and prepare yourself to grind it out through multiple drafts of O lineman, linebackers and space eating DTs with a spattering of a playmaking WR and a possession TE because that is where winners are built. Then, perhaps a great QB will be borne of being placed in a great situation with smart coaches and talented teammates. 

I don't have a crystal ball and have no idea what is in JD and Saleh's head, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that this is their thinking. 

I have been both a reader and infrequent poster on this board for a very long time ( i remember a dude named Bob Jensen if anyone recalls).

And this is definitely the best post i have ever read here. Thanks for putting this opinion out there.

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1 hour ago, IndianaJet said:

Random thoughts.......Quinten Nelson lives down the street from me.  I'm often tempted steal his amazon deliveries that he leaves outside of his front door for days on end.  Seems like a good dude, even though he's a Mets fan.  He also had a rager of a party two seasons ago the Saturday before the Colts lost to the 1 win Dolphins.  He and his ND boys were playing beer pong in his garage from about noon to midnight.  I'm betting he was hungover.

As to this thread.....this is a chicken vs. the egg argument and the Colts are the perfect example.

To succeed you need both. 

The Colts had the franchise, hall of fame caliber QB, failed to beef up the o-line around him and got nowhere.

Now they have a great o-line and a mediocre QB and....still no where.

You shut your whore mouth.☝️

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Well, this so-called "Colts model" worked very well for us from 2009 to 2011.  We had a well-constructed team on the lines, we had a head coach with a vision, we loaded up on talented veterans, and we had just lost our grizzled old carpetbagging QB.

And the rookie quarterback wasn't the reason we didn't make it to the Super Bowl.

SAR I

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2 hours ago, BCJet said:

For the people that want to keep our picks instead of trading for Watson and especially those who want to build a dominant OL by using #2 overall on Sewell, there is actually a live model of this plan right now - the Colts.

When the colts traded out of 3 to move back to 6 they received 3 second round picks.  They knocked their first 2 picks out of the park with the best guard in the NFL and Darious Leonard, an elite LB.  They took Braden Smith (more OL) who has been a solid starter at RT and occasionally guard and then drafted 2 pass rushers with their other 2nd's who havent been great.  But I think everyone can agree that 2 all-pro players and one starter out of 5 top 60 picks is excellent work.

The following year they used their 3 2nd round picks (traded down again I believe) to take a CB, DE and WR all of whom have been ok but not great.

They did the above because they had a franchise QB in place which led them to a wild card win and divisional round loss with in 2018 as their rookies got acclimated. 

Once they lost their QB (through no fault of their own), they promptly went 7-9 and didnt make the playoffs with a "stopgap" QB and elite OL.

Last year they spent $25 million to solve their QB problems and used their first 2 picks on offensive skill positions which got them to 11 wins and a WC loss.

And here they sit still trying to fill their QB role.  

Now could they have taken Sam or Rosen and been in a worse situation - yep absolutely.  But can anyone say the colts wouldnt be better off if they had traded down, accumulated picks AND took Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson that they would be better off today?  And that is factoring in that the guard they took is on a legitimate Hall of Fame track as the best guard in the league and Leonard is an elite LB.

Im not advocating that JD should not focus on the offensive and defensive lines, but if you dont fill QB, your ceiling in the NFL is limited and that is IF you hit on your picks. 

Absolutely love the Colts model. 

There was a VERY specific plan there. Ballard switched to 4-3 and got rid of all the 3-4 guys. There was lots of trade downs and they were done with a purpose. 

They have absolutely in love with 2nd round picks and seem to always get these great values there. Leonard, Rock ya Sin, Parris Campbell, Pittman and Jonathon Taylor. Certain GM's get all these picks but theres no theme, just value is value to them. To me it seems Ballard is super locked in with a very specific plan and has executed it so well. He's my favorite GM. If you watch the video of the Rock Ya Sin picks these trade downs were done with the thought of getting Ya Sin. 

Im a huge Joe Douglas fan so far but there were a few picks last year I kind of questioned in terms of: Perhaps he focused on just getting value and trading down and picking player X in this tier on their board. Where I'd hope he gets more aggressive moving around for a specific player like Ballard seems to have done. 

Mid round picks bust at an extremely high rate so you really don't want to be too tough. But the Zuninga, Perine, Morgan and Clark picks screamed just getting warm bodies at these positions rather than "I love that player". Even with the Mims trade that looked absolutely genius looked for value rather than picking a specific guy. This is obvious bc he traded down with the Mims avail. 

Having gase around. Not having full control and not knowing the future schemes is a big factor so Im fine giving him a pass on those picks. I hope having Saleh and his staff there for this years draft lead to extremely specific guys for these new schemes that a bit more upside then Career Back up or rotational players in those mid rounds. We need alot more Bryce Halls and alot less Perine's. 

 

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2 hours ago, BCJet said:

For the people that want to keep our picks instead of trading for Watson and especially those who want to build a dominant OL by using #2 overall on Sewell, there is actually a live model of this plan right now - the Colts.

When the colts traded out of 3 to move back to 6 they received 3 second round picks.  They knocked their first 2 picks out of the park with the best guard in the NFL and Darious Leonard, an elite LB.  They took Braden Smith (more OL) who has been a solid starter at RT and occasionally guard and then drafted 2 pass rushers with their other 2nd's who havent been great.  But I think everyone can agree that 2 all-pro players and one starter out of 5 top 60 picks is excellent work.

The following year they used their 3 2nd round picks (traded down again I believe) to take a CB, DE and WR all of whom have been ok but not great.

They did the above because they had a franchise QB in place which led them to a wild card win and divisional round loss with in 2018 as their rookies got acclimated. 

Once they lost their QB (through no fault of their own), they promptly went 7-9 and didnt make the playoffs with a "stopgap" QB and elite OL.

Last year they spent $25 million to solve their QB problems and used their first 2 picks on offensive skill positions which got them to 11 wins and a WC loss.

And here they sit still trying to fill their QB role.  

Now could they have taken Sam or Rosen and been in a worse situation - yep absolutely.  But can anyone say the colts wouldnt be better off if they had traded down, accumulated picks AND took Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson that they would be better off today?  And that is factoring in that the guard they took is on a legitimate Hall of Fame track as the best guard in the league and Leonard is an elite LB.

Im not advocating that JD should not focus on the offensive and defensive lines, but if you dont fill QB, your ceiling in the NFL is limited and that is IF you hit on your picks. 

Why would the Colts trade down for Allen or Jackson when they had a 29 year old Andrew Luck who had just won comedy of the year?

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2 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

Random thoughts.......Quinten Nelson lives down the street from me.  I'm often tempted steal his amazon deliveries that he leaves outside of his front door for days on end.  Seems like a good dude, even though he's a Mets fan.  He also had a rager of a party two seasons ago the Saturday before the Colts lost to the 1 win Dolphins.  He and his ND boys were playing beer pong in his garage from about noon to midnight.  I'm betting he was hungover.

As to this thread.....this is a chicken vs. the egg argument and the Colts are the perfect example.

To succeed you need both. 

The Colts had the franchise, hall of fame caliber QB, failed to beef up the o-line around him and got nowhere.

Now they have a great o-line and a mediocre QB and....still no where.

Chicken vs. egg argument?  Do you realize that you can't have the chicken and the egg at the same time? 

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2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Great proven coach
Goat QB

fastest receiver in league 

best TE in the league

Makes you wonder why every team just doesn’t  do that 

Jets Fans were like, "We don't want Andy Reid, he never won a Super Bowl!!"

All he did we rebuild Philly, get to 4 NFL championship games and a Super Bowl.   Meanwhile, fans here, "Remember when Rex got to 2 AFC Championship games!!   Bring back Sexy Rexy!"

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Four of the top 8 leaders in passing stats missed the playoffs this past year.

The guy we are wanting to sell everything for just won four games because the team he was on was otherwise weak.

The Bucs built their team then tried a few QBs and settled on one that got them to the super bowl.

The likely league mvp this year has been a great Qb for years and has one super bowl appearance.

There is no magic method of winning in this league.

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Theres no "model" either be IND or KC.

The colts would never traded down in that draft if they didn't had Andrew Luck

KC had a solid defenses, they had big misses in the draft and went to luck out on Tyreek Hill "(6th round) and Pat Mahomes (even though he was drafted in the first i doubt anyone in that franchise knew he was going to become what he is today)

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This silly idea that we can't be competitive or win a Super Bowl without some Nietzschean Ubermensch at quarterback has become a toxic narrative in this fanbase. 

At some point you have to acknowledge that

  • it's damn near impossible to accurately value players like Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes before they're drafted
  • Eli Manning (x2), Joe Flacco & Nick Foles all have rings

Of course we want a great quarterback. So does every f***ing team.

But what are you saying here? How does one implement a strategy, from your observations, year over year?

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2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

The Cap space used on Watson would be less on the Jets as it will be on the Texans. I think having 15%  avg. of your cap space tied up in a FQb for 5 years is a heck of a deal. A '21 & '22  first round pick and several additional in the 2nd-4th rounds those years as well as a good amount of cap space moving forward will also enable you to build around your biggest star since Namath. 

I don't see how JD/Saleh/Lefleur can look at the Houston saga and not make Watson happen. JJ Watt is complaining, Watson is removing any Texans related images from his social media pages and is radio silent with a new GM who came from an organization that puts team over player and I think you have the making of an unprecedented trade for a FQb in his prime. New GM wants HIS players and the opportunity to place his stamp on the organization.

What 1st year GM wants to stick around until late Day 2 of the draft to make a selection. What new GM wants to be strangled by the cap in year 1? What GM wants the possibility of a holdout or an unhappy start player causing division in the locker room and questioning every trade (Watt) & draft selection? The #2 overall pick and additional cap space Watson, plus an added bad contract to the Jets, allows the new GM incredible flexibility to stay and hit the reset with a new young/cheap Qb or trade out of #2 and rebuild his organization.image.thumb.png.a5fa1b80d16b8184fd1880780cbd498f.png

  

 

Historically, 15% is too much.   The max seems to be in the 12-13% range which still allows the team to field a competitive squad.   Could you stretch it to 15%?   maybe...  The Jets could certainly redo the Watson deal to manage the cap % down.   

The point wasn't yet another Watson discussion it was more pointing out that the Indy model was flawed by keeping 2 20m+ QB's on the roster at the same time.   You can't have 20% of your cap tied up at QB.

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Build the team and get a QB.  

Plan A. Watson can play for 12 more years.  We'll have 9 top 100 picks in the next three years to draft good players and some FA's will want to come here.  

Plan B. If no Watson, take a QB at 2 and build the team with 11 top 100 picks in three years.  At least we'll have hope.

 

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