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Lawrence Vs. Fields


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Give me Fields. 2 receivers in free agency. 1 early badass receiver in the draft. 1 burner in the late rounds. Fire the entire wide receiver corp we have now. And lets go win some games. 

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1 hour ago, DetroitRed said:

I can’t evaluate QBs, but the amount of screens,  and time to pass Lawrence had seemed really high.  Will be an interesting transition 

+@win4ever

Don't know if you guys know Justen Gammel -- anyway I feel like he's been championing this narrative for while - laying into Clemons/TL truthers about the sheer volume of LOS plays from talent evaluation standpoint

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Wilson not surprisingly has the best heat graph in demonstrating the ability to throw NFL throws. He was completely attacking the boundaries of the field. especially showing that the 10-15 yard out was not an issue at all for him. Also shows that he checks down a lot when his read is not there.

Despite the articles intention Mac Jones has the least impressive heat graph. It is the graph of a QB with a weak arm. Almost no outs, and almost entirely attacking the middle of the field with seams, slants and middle of the zone throws,

Lawrences heat map shows that his arm might not be as strong as people think. Almost no deep outs. Looks like he threw a lot of 5 yard outs which are probably extended screens, tons of behind the line stuff and then attacking the one on ones on the outside.

Fiellds map is odd. The negative is that he obviously struggles to throw to his left. He almost never throws there. On the positive side it shows he is capable of throwing the deep out pretty consistently to his right. He is also attacking at multiple layers and he was very attacking throwing much fewer screens than Jones and Lawrence but all screwed slightly right. The red flag of course is that teams in the NFL could force Fields to throw left and that could be a problem for Fields. Still that can be helped by actually giving him more screens and easy throws left and then attacking right.

If I was going to rate the maps in terms of NFL capability, I would go

1. Wilson (give him a TE and slot that can attack the middle and he co, and could be super deadly attacking the boundaries in 1 on 1s)

2. Fields (Issues throwing left, but shows ability to throw at all 3 levels to the right and the ability to throw the deep out.)

3. Lawrence (shows what many thought, mostly super safe throws at the LOS and 1 on 1s at the boundary. Not very impressive in terms of being able to stretch the field 

4. Jones (he just does not demonstrate the ability to make "all the throws", and his receivers are ridiculous. Would basically be Chad Pennington)

Now factor in running with Fields first, Lawrence second and Wilson a touch behind.  Jones non existent.

So from the above I would say you could make a good argument that at the NFL level they would be ranked

1 Wilson (highest ceiling in  Shanahan offense style )

2 Fields (but could be 1 for certain offenses, highest ceiling in RPO offense)

3, Lawrence (not as big of an arm as people think and has much lower floor than people think)

4. Jones (2nd round grade)

 

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Wilson not surprisingly has the best heat graph in demonstrating the ability to throw NFL throws. He was completely attacking the boundaries of the field. especially showing that the 10-15 yard out was not an issue at all for him. Also shows that he checks down a lot when his read is not there.

Despite the articles intention Mac Jones has the least impressive heat graph. It is the graph of a QB with a weak arm. Almost no outs, and almost entirely attacking the middle of the field with seams, slants and middle of the zone throws,

Lawrences heat map shows that his arm might not be as strong as people think. Almost no deep outs. Looks like he threw a lot of 5 yard outs which are probably extended screens, tons of behind the line stuff and then attacking the one on ones on the outside.

Fiellds map is odd. The negative is that he obviously struggles to throw to his left. He almost never throws there. On the positive side it shows he is capable of throwing the deep out pretty consistently to his right. He is also attacking at multiple layers and he was very attacking throwing much fewer screens than Jones and Lawrence but all screwed slightly right. The red flag of course is that teams in the NFL could force Fields to throw left and that could be a problem for Fields. Still that can be helped by actually giving him more screens and easy throws left and then attacking right.

If I was going to rate the maps in terms of NFL capability, I would go

1. Wilson (give him a TE and slot that can attack the middle and he co, and could be super deadly attacking the boundaries in 1 on 1s)

2. Fields (Issues throwing left, but shows ability to throw at all 3 levels to the right and the ability to throw the deep out.)

3. Lawrence (shows what many thought, mostly super safe throws at the LOS and 1 on 1s at the boundary. Not very impressive in terms of being able to stretch the field 

4. Jones (he just does not demonstrate the ability to make "all the throws", and his receivers are ridiculous. Would basically be Chad Pennington)

Now factor in running with Fields first, Lawrence second and Wilson a touch behind.  Jones non existent.

So from the above I would say you could make a good argument that at the NFL level they would be ranked

1 Wilson (highest ceiling in  Shanahan offense style )

2 Fields (but could be 1 for certain offenses, highest ceiling in RPO offense)

3, Lawrence (not as big of an arm as people think and has much lower floor than people think)

4. Jones (2nd round grade)

 

 

 

 

 

This is great - thanks for posting. I'm starting to think that Wilson can be a great player in this league. He'll just need to learn how to avoid big hits. I have felt his game would translate really well in the NFL - now there is some proof that could be the case. 

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15 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Where the F*** were all you guys all this season?  😎   There were about three of us on here saying that Lawrence was by no means far ahead of others and was not generational but it was like pissing in the wind while this whole forum were hanging on every jets tank loss.

Now instead of leaping on the lose out for Lawrence we are on the sell the farm and SARs BMW for watson.

 

Drowned out by all of DWC's Trevor is a God amongst men felating threads/posts. Noone wanted to hear it until we lost a game, then Fields drubbed Clemson. Then it was all aboard the JF train till he lost to Bama the next week, back to JF sucks. Then Watson trade hype. What a rollercoaster. 😂

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Wilson at 2 or roll with Sam and trade back for a haul. 
 

If Wilson is the pick get as much for Sam as possible (and I’ll root like hell for him) and some how get Kadarius Toney. 
 

We need our Tyreek Hill. 

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2 hours ago, pointman said:

Give me Fields. 2 receivers in free agency. 1 early badass receiver in the draft. 1 burner in the late rounds. Fire the entire wide receiver corp we have now. And lets go win some games. 

We have to get rid of Mims too?

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Great read, thanks. Didn’t know Fields got Yale, Harvard offers. 
 

Wilson to me is intriguing. His arm seems, dare I say, special. I wonder if someone out there has taken the time to compare his arm vs the others.

But as we all know, it’s what’s between the ears that counts.

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So the TL/DR version of this is basically that taking Fields at #2 isn't a consolation prize.  I have been leaning slightly his way and this was some interesting data to back that up.  Great post.

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Wilson not surprisingly has the best heat graph in demonstrating the ability to throw NFL throws. He was completely attacking the boundaries of the field. especially showing that the 10-15 yard out was not an issue at all for him. Also shows that he checks down a lot when his read is not there.

Fiellds map is odd. The negative is that he obviously struggles to throw to his left. He almost never throws there. On the positive side it shows he is capable of throwing the deep out pretty consistently to his right. He is also attacking at multiple layers and he was very attacking throwing much fewer screens than Jones and Lawrence but all screwed slightly right. The red flag of course is that teams in the NFL could force Fields to throw left and that could be a problem for Fields. Still that can be helped by actually giving him more screens and easy throws left and then attacking right.

If I was going to rate the maps in terms of NFL capability, I would go

1. Wilson (give him a TE and slot that can attack the middle and he co, and could be super deadly attacking the boundaries in 1 on 1s)

2. Fields (Issues throwing left, but shows ability to throw at all 3 levels to the right and the ability to throw the deep out.)

 

I don't know how you are looking at the same heat maps I am.  Fields is glowing red all over the 5-20 yard range and still pretty hot in the 15-20.  Wilson is all under 5 yards or down the sidelines with the middle and deep middle being ice cold.

Fields                                                                                   Wilson

image.png       image.png              

Also, I'm not sure, but I think the reason Fields is much hotter on the right is because that's where I recall seeing Olave line up most of the time.  Naturally he's going to be hot going to his best WR.  The short left is ice cold but there is a similar pocket on the short right for Wilson.

Looking at these maps, Fields jumps out as the far better passer to all parts of the field except deep left and short passes around the LOS, and I don't see it as even that close.  Am I missing something?

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2 hours ago, pointman said:

Give me Fields. 2 receivers in free agency. 1 early badass receiver in the draft. 1 burner in the late rounds. Fire the entire wide receiver corp we have now. And lets go win some games. 

Soooo Curtis Samuel and Josh Reynolds in FA. Give me Kadarius Toney with pick #23 and draft Anthony Schwartz in the later rounds.

WR1 - Curtis Samuel

WR2 - Denzel Mims

Slot - Kadarius Toney

WR4 - Josh Reynolds

WR5 - Anthony Schwartz

That's IF they wanted to go that route and really upgrade the WR position for whatever QB they decide to draft at #2 whether it be Fields or Wilson. I think that group would do damage.

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4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I don't know how you are looking at the same heat maps I am.  Fields is glowing red all over the 5-20 yard range and still pretty hot in the 15-20.  Wilson is all under 5 yards or down the sidelines with the middle and deep middle being ice cold.

Fields                                                                                   Wilson

image.png       image.png              

Also, I'm not sure, but I think the reason Fields is much hotter on the right is because that's where I recall seeing Olave line up most of the time.  Naturally he's going to be hot going to his best WR.  The short left is ice cold but it's the mirror image of the short right for Wilson.

Looking at these maps, Fields jumps out as the far better passer to all parts of the field except deep left and I don't see it as even that close.  Am I missing something?

What I got out of that is that BYU desperately needed a TE. That heat map also shows where their receivers are running routes not where they are throwing.

 

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3 hours ago, pointman said:

No chance Trevor Lawrence lives up to the hype. Zero. 

I mean, how CAN he?  He's basically being hyped as the ultimate prototype who can do it all.  However those college playoff losses showed that he is beatable.

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

I don't know how you are looking at the same heat maps I am.  Fields is glowing red all over the 5-20 yard range and still pretty hot in the 15-20.  Wilson is all under 5 yards or down the sidelines with the middle and deep middle being ice cold.

Fields                                                                                   Wilson

image.png       image.png              

Also, I'm not sure, but I think the reason Fields is much hotter on the right is because that's where I recall seeing Olave line up most of the time.  Naturally he's going to be hot going to his best WR.  The short left is ice cold but there is a similar pocket on the short right for Wilson.

Looking at these maps, Fields jumps out as the far better passer to all parts of the field except deep left and short passes around the LOS, and I don't see it as even that close.  Am I missing something?

Yes. Look at the two bright red at the 10-15 yard out for Wilson.  Also look at the symmetry along the deep boundaries on both sides. It suggests that Wilson can attack either side at the boundary short and intermediate. Look at the wedge om the short middle and how evenly and wide it spreads, shows the ability for swing passes, screens, and quick slants on both sides. Notice the wedge short behind lime of scrimmage and how red it is and how it does not exist on Fields. This shows skill at throwing the middle screen off play action. When you look at Fields you can see that he is likely throwing mostly to a single receiver as you said in Olave.. My guess is the bright red is the comeback route off a go look. 

The lack of the middle for Wilson is likely because he didn't really have a  receiving TE to throw to and indeed Matt Bushman was lost in September.

Also note that the two areas where receivers sit to beat zone coverage are white and red. Although he did not throw them as much as other throws the tight bunching suggests they were well timed and effective.

I never criticized Fields. He is 2nd best in his metric but in terms of what you want to see from a QB throwing ability Wilsons is better.

 

 

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1 hour ago, jetscrazey said:

I mean, how CAN he?  He's basically being hyped as the ultimate prototype who can do it all.  However those college playoff losses showed that he is beatable.

I can't wait to take who we take and potentially get "the man". Trevor who? Lets go. Exciting Jets football is back! I hope.

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

Yes. Look at the two bright red at the 10-15 yard out for Wilson.  Also look at the symmetry along the deep boundaries on both sides. It suggests that Wilson can attack either side at the boundary short and intermediate. Look at the wedge om the short middle and how evenly and wide it spreads, shows the ability for swing passes, screens, and quick slants on both sides. Notice the wedge short behind lime of scrimmage and how red it is and how it does not exist on Fields. This shows skill at throwing the middle screen off play action. When you look at Fields you can see that he is likely throwing mostly to a single receiver as you said in Olave.. My guess is the bright red is the comeback route off a go look. 

The lack of the middle for Wilson is likely because he didn't really have a  receiving TE to throw to and indeed Matt Bushman was lost in September.

Also note that the two areas where receivers sit to beat zone coverage are white and red. Although he did not throw them as much as other throws the tight bunching suggests they were well timed and effective.

I never criticized Fields. He is 2nd best in his metric but in terms of what you want to see from a QB throwing ability Wilsons is better.

 

 

About 20% of BYU's receptions went to TEs, but I have no idea where they were catching them.  IN any case, I think this is more a matter of what plays are called, which is not necessarily in the QB's control. 

Can't fault Fields for heavily throwing to the right if that's where the open man is.  But we also can't say he isn't able to throw left based on that.  By the same token, BYU may have called plays mostly along the sidelines because that's where they had the advantage based on their personnel and opponents.  This isn't a knock on either QB. To my eye, they can both throw the rock.  Wilson appears to have the better long pass.  But Fields' athletic ability and ability to pass successfully in that intermediate range where you get first downs is more valuable IMO.  Chicks dig the long ball, but 1st downs win games.

I'm not saying I know he'll be a better QB in the NFL, and certainly not in the Jets' offensive system.  I just think he's got the edge based on the things he can do that Wilson can't.  This league favors young QBs who can run.  QBs who can't run need to pass like Rodgers or Brady.  And as good as Wilson looks, I am not as comfortable gambling that he's going to be that good coming out of BYU off one good season as others. 

Just opinion.

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Lawrence is a safer bet, but Fields has some crazy raw talent. He's got the size, a cannon, the best deep ball in college, and he's expected to run a 4.4 40 time. He can be absolutely absurd in the NFL given the situation, and I think him and Lawrence would be neck in neck if they played the same amount of games. 

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6 hours ago, DetroitRed said:

I can’t evaluate QBs, but the amount of screens,  and time to pass Lawrence had seemed really high.  Will be an interesting transition 

That whole system is based on spreading people horizontally, so you are weaker down the field.  Almost every play has a quick pass outlet, which inflates the stats.  If you watch Geno's tape in college (and I'm in no way saying Lawrence is Geno) you will see the same thing with them, an outlet pass as the safety option.  Same thing with Mariota in college as well.  The issue is in the NFL that doesn't really work nearly as well because the defense is faster at recognizing and tackling.  Then you have the issues that those guys faced, which is indecisiveness because they don't have that safety valve.  

6 hours ago, JiF said:

Pretty much what we've been saying for months just wrapped up in fancy stats to support.

Thanks for posting, interesting read.

I still have Lawrence 1, but I didn't really start looking into film until the season was over.  The whole season just had me wish I didn't buy GamePass because I didn't log in once, lol.  

5 hours ago, pointman said:

Give me Fields. 2 receivers in free agency. 1 early badass receiver in the draft. 1 burner in the late rounds. Fire the entire wide receiver corp we have now. And lets go win some games. 

I think with Fields, or any young QB, you need a bad read eliminator.  Someone like an Allen Robinson, where it just didn't matter if you made the wrong read because your guy can still win.  Herbert had Allen and Williams, Allen had Diggs, Burrow had Higgins, Murray for Hopkins, Mahomes has Hill/Kelce, etc. 

I think better than a stable, a young QB needs that one guy where he can be confident in, regardless of a bad pre-snap read.  

5 hours ago, Paradis said:

+@win4ever

Don't know if you guys know Justen Gammel -- anyway I feel like he's been championing this narrative for while - laying into Clemons/TL truthers about the sheer volume of LOS plays from talent evaluation standpoint

Yeah, that whole system is propped up mainly because of Watson's success in the NFL.  As we get closer to the draft, I want to take some time to find some All 22 for Lawrence, and point out some issues.  He makes very good throws at times, but he's inaccurate enough times, that I don't get this "generational talent" moniker.  

I don't want to sound like conspiracy theory nut or reading too much into it, but do you think Meyer picks Fields?  

The video below is him talking about Lawrence and what makes him elite.  However, you can mark the same thing to Fields, especially after the toughness he showed in the semi-final game.  He's about as locked into Ohio State as I've seen a guy (still refuses to say Michigan, while working for the Big10 Network).  

 But the interesting thing to me were his OC and Passing game coordinator hires (Bevell and Schotenheimer) both of whom played with Russel Wilson, who some have given the comps to for Fields.  Mobile, accurate, with an uncanny deep pass that seems to just drop in.  Meyer likes to run a system similar to what Day did at OSU in which he likes to use the RPO for numbers, and attack down the field.   A system in which Fields is well versed in.  

I don't know how locked in that No. 1 pick is for Lawrence.  

A few folks say he went to the Jags instead of the Jets because of Lawrence, but I think he really went there because he wanted say in the roster, which he wouldn't have nearly as much say with the Jets or Chargers.  

Do you think No. 1 is locked to be Lawrence?

5 hours ago, pointman said:

No chance Trevor Lawrence lives up to the hype. Zero. 

Kinda hard to at this point, because he's hyped like a HOF QB.  

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Wilson not surprisingly has the best heat graph in demonstrating the ability to throw NFL throws. He was completely attacking the boundaries of the field. especially showing that the 10-15 yard out was not an issue at all for him. Also shows that he checks down a lot when his read is not there.

Despite the articles intention Mac Jones has the least impressive heat graph. It is the graph of a QB with a weak arm. Almost no outs, and almost entirely attacking the middle of the field with seams, slants and middle of the zone throws,

Lawrences heat map shows that his arm might not be as strong as people think. Almost no deep outs. Looks like he threw a lot of 5 yard outs which are probably extended screens, tons of behind the line stuff and then attacking the one on ones on the outside.

Fiellds map is odd. The negative is that he obviously struggles to throw to his left. He almost never throws there. On the positive side it shows he is capable of throwing the deep out pretty consistently to his right. He is also attacking at multiple layers and he was very attacking throwing much fewer screens than Jones and Lawrence but all screwed slightly right. The red flag of course is that teams in the NFL could force Fields to throw left and that could be a problem for Fields. Still that can be helped by actually giving him more screens and easy throws left and then attacking right.

If I was going to rate the maps in terms of NFL capability, I would go

1. Wilson (give him a TE and slot that can attack the middle and he co, and could be super deadly attacking the boundaries in 1 on 1s)

2. Fields (Issues throwing left, but shows ability to throw at all 3 levels to the right and the ability to throw the deep out.)

3. Lawrence (shows what many thought, mostly super safe throws at the LOS and 1 on 1s at the boundary. Not very impressive in terms of being able to stretch the field 

4. Jones (he just does not demonstrate the ability to make "all the throws", and his receivers are ridiculous. Would basically be Chad Pennington)

Now factor in running with Fields first, Lawrence second and Wilson a touch behind.  Jones non existent.

So from the above I would say you could make a good argument that at the NFL level they would be ranked

1 Wilson (highest ceiling in  Shanahan offense style )

2 Fields (but could be 1 for certain offenses, highest ceiling in RPO offense)

3, Lawrence (not as big of an arm as people think and has much lower floor than people think)

4. Jones (2nd round grade)

 

 

 

 

 

Nice post.  I like Wilson's tape, but his injury and competition worry too much.  At No. 2 I think he's too much of a risk.  I though Josh Allen was too much of a risk too, so here we are, but I feel like Allen had that "holy cow" ability.  

I don't have access to PFF or heat maps, but anecdotally I remember him throwing left more often last year for OSU.  I don't know who has access to 2019 heat maps, but would love to see if Fields threw more towards the left that season.  

4 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Where the F*** were all you guys all this season?  😎   There were about three of us on here saying that Lawrence was by no means far ahead of others and was not generational but it was like pissing in the wind while this whole forum were hanging on every jets tank loss.

Now instead of leaping on the lose out for Lawrence we are on the sell the farm and SARs BMW for watson.

 

I didn't really go in-depth until after the season, because the season was just too depressing.  I'm a Jets/Michigan fan (so it hurts a bit to praise OSU QB) so my weekends were spent trying to forget about football.  

4 hours ago, HawaiisOnlyJetsFan said:

Drowned out by all of DWC's Trevor is a God amongst men felating threads/posts. Noone wanted to hear it until we lost a game, then Fields drubbed Clemson. Then it was all aboard the JF train till he lost to Bama the next week, back to JF sucks. Then Watson trade hype. What a rollercoaster. 😂

It's the same for like every prospect and every team.  Darnold beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl, and it was basically tank for Darnold.  Rosen came back against A&M, and it was Chosen Rosen.  

4 hours ago, oatmeal said:

I feel bad for the coaches Urban Meyer will employ to coach Trevor because like Sam if Trevor blows they will be the ones crucified. 

It'll be curious to see the system they choose to run there.  

3 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Great read, thanks. Didn’t know Fields got Yale, Harvard offers. 
 

Wilson to me is intriguing. His arm seems, dare I say, special. I wonder if someone out there has taken the time to compare his arm vs the others.

But as we all know, it’s what’s between the ears that counts.

Yeah, that's the hardest part of scouting at home, because no one has access to these guy's minds, which is probably the biggest factor.  Have someone like JaMarcus Russel and you go WOW, but he's dumb as a rock.  Even Vince Young, could do no wrong in college, but over his head in the NFL.  

I hope whoever we decide on, we get to go more in-depth in the interview and find out some mental capabilities.  I've been arguing for VR instead of whiteboards, because you can pre-program defensive shells into the view.  So a QB can see a pre-snap read, and yell an audible.  The coach can then adjust the defense, and ask the QB what changed.  Or have one defensive shell at the snap, but change out of it, pause the video during the drop back phase and ask the QB what they are seeing.  I feel like the old whiteboard method doesn't focusing on reading the defense, rather just knowing the assignments.  

3 hours ago, nycdan said:

So the TL/DR version of this is basically that taking Fields at #2 isn't a consolation prize.  I have been leaning slightly his way and this was some interesting data to back that up.  Great post.

I think Fields would thrive in the Shanahan system, as long as there is a WR 1.  

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

I don't know how you are looking at the same heat maps I am.  Fields is glowing red all over the 5-20 yard range and still pretty hot in the 15-20.  Wilson is all under 5 yards or down the sidelines with the middle and deep middle being ice cold.

Fields                                                                                   Wilson

image.png       image.png              

Also, I'm not sure, but I think the reason Fields is much hotter on the right is because that's where I recall seeing Olave line up most of the time.  Naturally he's going to be hot going to his best WR.  The short left is ice cold but there is a similar pocket on the short right for Wilson.

Looking at these maps, Fields jumps out as the far better passer to all parts of the field except deep left and short passes around the LOS, and I don't see it as even that close.  Am I missing something?

I would love to see the map for 2019 because I remember some deep throws to the left.  I see a bunch of deep throws to the left, so I wonder how the heat maps look for just 2019.

1 hour ago, Jet Life said:

This class has a chance to be very special. I prefer Fields but Wilson can be great too especially in this offense. It would be foolish to pass on either 

This class could be special, albeit all about picking the right one.  We all thought Darnold was pretty much as blue chip as we could get, and him and Rosen are probably the worst from that class.  

I think Fields has elements to his game that aren't there with Darnold, but it also all depends on the system.  

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