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Is Curtis Samuel the perfect fit at WR for the Jets?


Shockwave

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18 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Looking at WR's in FA I am sure we all want Allen Robinson. I do. However he is going to cost 20m per season and he's getting closer to 30. 

Then I started thinking about what WR fits our team and who will we go after. The more I look at it the more I am thinking the Jets will key in on Curtis Samuel. I think hes an absolute perfect fit too. Here's why:

1. He could be our Deebo Samuel. Watched a ton of SF last year. Its a whole lot of WR screen. It's a whole lot of throws close to the line of scrimmage and needing the WR to get YAC. Theres def alot of WR's running sweeps and all types of runs. Curtis Samuel was used in the running game a-lot and definitely has YAC skills. He looks really good running the ball and would look great with all the manufactured touches that happen in SF. I think he would be OUR version of Deebo Samuel and do quite well in that role. 

2. Hes affordable: Some dont rank him as a top 10 WR in FA. He should be a value signing with upside to out perform his contract. Hes expected to sign for 8-10m per year (Half of the top guys). I think this could be a similar signing to George Fant signing where we went after a guy for future production and paid a nice price for him. 

3. Age: He is only 24. Free agents are usually way to close to 30. Curtis Samuel will sign a 3-4 year deal let's say and be in his Prime for the entire contract. 

4. Deep Threat that could take the top off. - This could arguably be reason number 1. He just compliments what Mim's and Crowder do so well. Curtis Samuel has 4.31 speed. Before last year he was used more-so as a deep threat and could stretch the field for us. Note that Douglas went after a deep threat in FA last year so he could again. 

5. Avoid drafting WR High in Draft - First round WR's bust among the highest out of any position on the field. Rb bust the most. WR is not far behind. They also usually take a long time to develop. Ever hear the 3rd year breakout WR? So even when they don't bust sometimes they develop slowly. Look at last years "BEST CLASS EVER". Ruggs, Juedy, that were taken in the first round had ups and downs. 

Contract wise Crowder is a FA next year and Mim's is on a rookie deal. We will have no money invested there next year and don't have to pay Mims for years. I don't think Sam or someone we draft should have TWO rookie types (Mims missed many games and needs development) to work with. We need to Support the QB this year like other Franchises support their QB by getting him weapons now.

I think Saleh and Lafluer are going to put on Curtis Samuel's tape and see a guy they could put in that Deebo Role. He's young, affordable and his upside is through the roof. This could be a perfect fit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great post. I was thinking Golladay, until i read a bunch of stuff on Samuel's ability to get quick separation as compared to some of the other wideouts.in FA.

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I do think the Deebo role is more gravy for SF’s offense than given credit for because he’s quite good at it - that said Samuel probably fits in the right price range and seems to be peaking.

The big thing I notice when I look at the SF guys, and I’m not sure if it’s reached the point of being a trend yet, but Samuel and Aiyuk are both YAC guys. They’re both well built but neither is that tall - or short and a slot type. Both right around 6’ and north of 200. Those guys in particular on SF because they’re guys the team invested premium to semi premium picks in.

All that said, the SF offense tends to go through  a focal point in the passing game, and I don’t think either of those guys was drafted to be that focal point because it’s Kittle. And it doesn’t need to be a TE in the style of offense - I think the TE needs to be a good blocker to work in the run game more than to be the lead receiver. But someone needs to be a lead receiver who gets peppered with targets - even when Kittle was hurt Aiyuk had some big games in the role.

As much as Samuel is a fit and enhances the offense I don’t think he fills that need.

I do think they should address it in FA, too. It’s a good class. And that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring in Samuel, it’s a great point about filling the Samuel role.

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11 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

My issue with Samuel is the same issue I have with taking Kadarious Toney in round 1. This draft is littered with shifty fast guys that can do the outside/inside thing. Spending $10 million a year on one doesn’t seem prudent.

can they catch? 

 

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I really like this take. Samuel added to Mims & Crowder. And if the Jets & JD trade back its time we find a player that every single defense we play has to plan for, and that's Kyle Pitts! Herndon sucks. 

Now I would never advocate drafting a TE in the 1st round but this draft won't be normal based on our draft capital. If we move back, most likely it would add a #2, #3 & possible a #1, or #2 next year? 

Now I don't know about you guys but if I'm heading into 2021 & we've already signed for example, Curtis Samuel, Joe Thuney, and Trey Hendrickson in free agency, and we traded back & added Kyle Pitts & were still left with #23, #34, another #2, and three 3rds starting with #66, id be doing cartwheels! We have to remember that NEXT YEAR, we'd still have two #1s, maybe 3 or two #1s, two #2s. 

Just imagine having a starting lineup of Mims, Samuel, Pitts, Crowder! With a good Oline. PLUS, my sleeper pick with one of our three 2nd rounders! Toney out of Florida! That dude is Tyreek Hill lite, and with all of those other weapons would be an X-factor in this Shanahan offense! Break him him just like they did with Deebo. 

I know taking a TE in the 1st scares everyone, but I'm only advocating this with a trade back for more picks. Kyle Pitts might just be the best offensive player in this draft! Who's covering him? His hands are outstanding! I am so sick of having literally one of the worst offenses in this league for years. It's time to change that this year & get some damn play makers and use the entire field instead of asking our QBs to play in a phone booth. 

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Samuel is my first choice as a FA WR.  He led all WRs in rushes out of the backfield last year which will add another dynamic to the offense. 

He did thrive last year in the slot, and crowder isnt really someone you can move outside, but I think Samuel has the speed to be an "outside" WR at times.  I also wouldnt say he is "small" at 5'11 195 - he is strong enough to make some contested catches and fast enough to get down the field.

Would love to see him be a top FA target and allow us to focus elsewhere in the draft.

As an aside, Jetsxfactor.com did a great write up on how many times Mims was missed last year when he was wide open.  I think we will see a major step forward for him with an improved offense and QB.

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6 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Looking at WR's in FA I am sure we all want Allen Robinson. I do. However he is going to cost 20m per season and he's getting closer to 30. 

Then I started thinking about what WR fits our team and who will we go after. The more I look at it the more I am thinking the Jets will key in on Curtis Samuel. I think hes an absolute perfect fit too. Here's why:

1. He could be our Deebo Samuel. Watched a ton of SF last year. Its a whole lot of WR screen. It's a whole lot of throws close to the line of scrimmage and needing the WR to get YAC. Theres def alot of WR's running sweeps and all types of runs. Curtis Samuel was used in the running game a-lot and definitely has YAC skills. He looks really good running the ball and would look great with all the manufactured touches that happen in SF. I think he would be OUR version of Deebo Samuel and do quite well in that role. 

2. Hes affordable: Some dont rank him as a top 10 WR in FA. He should be a value signing with upside to out perform his contract. Hes expected to sign for 8-10m per year (Half of the top guys). I think this could be a similar signing to George Fant signing where we went after a guy for future production and paid a nice price for him. 

3. Age: He is only 24. Free agents are usually way to close to 30. Curtis Samuel will sign a 3-4 year deal let's say and be in his Prime for the entire contract. 

4. Deep Threat that could take the top off. - This could arguably be reason number 1. He just compliments what Mim's and Crowder do so well. Curtis Samuel has 4.31 speed. Before last year he was used more-so as a deep threat and could stretch the field for us. Note that Douglas went after a deep threat in FA last year so he could again. 

5. Avoid drafting WR High in Draft - First round WR's bust among the highest out of any position on the field. Rb bust the most. WR is not far behind. They also usually take a long time to develop. Ever hear the 3rd year breakout WR? So even when they don't bust sometimes they develop slowly. Look at last years "BEST CLASS EVER". Ruggs, Juedy, that were taken in the first round had ups and downs. 

Contract wise Crowder is a FA next year and Mim's is on a rookie deal. We will have no money invested there next year and don't have to pay Mims for years. I don't think Sam or someone we draft should have TWO rookie types (Mims missed many games and needs development) to work with. We need to Support the QB this year like other Franchises support their QB by getting him weapons now.

I think Saleh and Lafluer are going to put on Curtis Samuel's tape and see a guy they could put in that Deebo Role. He's young, affordable and his upside is through the roof. This could be a perfect fit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is exactly who I expect us to land. If we get Samuel I think we look to add another receiver as well. I think Samuel would be a replacement for Perriman so we'd still need WR1.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

I do think the Deebo role is more gravy for SF’s offense than given credit for because he’s quite good at it - that said Samuel probably fits in the right price range and seems to be peaking.

The big thing I notice when I look at the SF guys, and I’m not sure if it’s reached the point of being a trend yet, but Samuel and Aiyuk are both YAC guys. They’re both well built but neither is that tall - or short and a slot type. Both right around 6’ and north of 200. Those guys in particular on SF because they’re guys the team invested premium to semi premium picks in.

All that said, the SF offense tends to go through  a focal point in the passing game, and I don’t think either of those guys was drafted to be that focal point because it’s Kittle. And it doesn’t need to be a TE in the style of offense - I think the TE needs to be a good blocker to work in the run game more than to be the lead receiver. But someone needs to be a lead receiver who gets peppered with targets - even when Kittle was hurt Aiyuk had some big games in the role.

As much as Samuel is a fit and enhances the offense I don’t think he fills that need.

I do think they should address it in FA, too. It’s a good class. And that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring in Samuel, it’s a great point about filling the Samuel role.

I don't think we should be comparing ourselves to GB's offense although the system is similar. It's kind of like saying we'll have Cleveland or Minny's offense etc. We have the OC from SF. Its that offense he's going to want to recreate. 

Agree on Kittle - Would love to have a TE like that. Unfortunately Kittle is pretty rare. 

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1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

My issue with Samuel is the same issue I have with taking Kadarious Toney in round 1. This draft is littered with shifty fast guys that can do the outside/inside thing. Spending $10 million a year on one doesn’t seem prudent.

Then you would have invested and 1 and a 2 at WR in two years. 

Also as the OP states and as any search will tell you rookie wr's bust at among the highest rate in the game (30% bust rate). They also HIT at among the lowest rate. Even a guy like Jerry Juedy who was sooo advanced for a rookie will take years to develop. 

The Jets best WR's were all acquired by trade or FA(Braylon or Marshall etc). Its def a good position to go get a guy via trade or FA. 

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5 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

I don't think we should be comparing ourselves to GB's offense although the system is similar. It's kind of like saying we'll have Cleveland or Minny's offense etc. We have the OC from SF. Its that offense he's going to want to recreate. 

Agree on Kittle - Would love to have a TE like that. Unfortunately Kittle is pretty rare. 

Coaches don’t replicate the exact same version of the offense when they go from team to team.  Shanahan ran a different variation in Atlanta than he has in San Fran.  They adapt and tweak it based on personnel.   

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4 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

I don't think we should be comparing ourselves to GB's offense although the system is similar. It's kind of like saying we'll have Cleveland or Minny's offense etc. We have the OC from SF. Its that offense he's going to want to recreate. 

Agree on Kittle - Would love to have a TE like that. Unfortunately Kittle is pretty rare. 

You really think that Mike LaFluer wont incorporate anything that his brother does in GB?  I sincerely hope that isnt the case because that would mean Mike is married to the shanahan system (no matter how successful it has been) as opposed to consistently looking at what works/doesnt work for other offenses and incorporating things that put his players in the best spots.

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42 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Samuel is my first choice as a FA WR.  He led all WRs in rushes out of the backfield last year which will add another dynamic to the offense. 

He did thrive last year in the slot, and crowder isnt really someone you can move outside, but I think Samuel has the speed to be an "outside" WR at times.  I also wouldnt say he is "small" at 5'11 195 - he is strong enough to make some contested catches and fast enough to get down the field.

Would love to see him be a top FA target and allow us to focus elsewhere in the draft.

As an aside, Jetsxfactor.com did a great write up on how many times Mims was missed last year when he was wide open.  I think we will see a major step forward for him with an improved offense and QB.

Good Post. 

I think Samuel actually aligns for us because of Crowder. Crowder is 28 this year and I don't think we resign him for his age 29/30 seasons. Samuel can outside this year and play in the slot next year when Crowder leaves. 

As you mentioned Samuel led all WR's in rushes - Not all offenses will be into that. But I really think Saleh and Lafluer are going to watch his tape and see a smaller/faster version of Deebo that could fit this offense. He is not 215 pounds like Deebo. But he had some tough inside runs last year that Deebo doesn't do. He is tougher than people think. It also doesn't hurt to have 4.3 speed. 

 

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16 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

I don't think we should be comparing ourselves to GB's offense although the system is similar. It's kind of like saying we'll have Cleveland or Minny's offense etc. We have the OC from SF. Its that offense he's going to want to recreate. 

Agree on Kittle - Would love to have a TE like that. Unfortunately Kittle is pretty rare. 

I feel like you quoted the wrong poster?

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8 minutes ago, TommyT said:

Paying 12-14 mil for the 3rd best receiver on the Panthers is not value is stupid like this thread.

$12 million is what good not great WRs get after their first contract.  But sure, dont pay samuel, lets play Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith instead.

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1 hour ago, BCJet said:

$12 million is what good not great WRs get after their first contract.  But sure, dont pay samuel, lets play Braxton Berrios and Jeff Smith instead.

Claiming Samuel will get 12-14m is just some random person making up numbers without anything to back it up(Not directed at you). FA goes by comparables or similar players and no one with Curtis Samuels resume has gotten 12-14m. Keep in mind the cap should go down so expect less spending in FA. 

Samuel projects for 8-10m yearly. Perrimen got 6.5 last year. Samuel is younger and presents a really nice value. Here is Samuel's projected Contract. 

 

Quote

43. WR CURTIS SAMUEL

Perhaps one of the more under-the-radar storylines of the entire 2020 season is Curtis Samuel’s rebirth in Carolina under new head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. When Carolina signed speedster Robby Anderson this offseason, some thought it could spell the end of Samuel’s time in Carolina. He’s long been rumored in trades as he approaches the end of his rookie contract, but his 2020 campaign changes the situation entirely. Samuel and Anderson really aren’t very similar in their playing styles, and Joe Brady has accentuated Samuel’s strengths in an impressive fashion. 

Contract Analysis: Samuel has shifted inside to the slot, and he’s also had at least one rushing attempt in every game this season. His 2020 average depth of target of 6.2 yards through Week 12 is a massive drop-off from his 2019 average depth of target mark of 15.1 yards. As a result, Samuel’s game is starting to resemble another second-round wide receiver with the last name Samuel: Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers. Both players look like running backs in the open field when they get the ball near or behind the line of scrimmage, flashing a physical, downhill nature in their efforts after the catch. Samuel has excelled in his new role and could have an opportunity to finish the season on a tear with D.J. Moore expected to miss some time.

Prediction: Giants sign Samuel for three years, $25 million ($8.33M APY): $15 million total guaranteed, $10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

I think the Jets could handle these numbers and its actually a great value for a guy that will likely be a better player for his next team then he was for the Panthers. 

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22 minutes ago, derp said:

I feel like you quoted the wrong poster?

Totally did. Loved your take on it. 

I will just say in response to your post: While Deebo and Aiyuk are both bigger Samuel runs tough and did some things last year that Deebo/Aiyuk can't. He has some tough runs inside and theres vision there and theres a toughness that 99% of WR's don't have. 

This is just one game. On that 45 yard run no one see's Deebo there? If you look at his other highlights he's running inside as well. He runs hard. 

 

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I really like Samuel, but that is more fan and because I like potential.  He can be a force and scores on a fairly high amount of touches.  If they are going for YAC he seems like a great choice.  I have always seen him more as weapon than receiver.  A poor man's Percy Harvin.  (By this viewpoint Jeff Smith is a very poor man's Curtis Samuel.)  I would imagine that most OC would look at him and see a guy they can scheme to success, but I would probably prefer a true outside weapon - Robinson, Golladay, Godwin should all be firmly ahead of him as targets.  It will all come down to price.  Considering how often he was in trade rumors and not moved a bunch of teams probably like him, but it doesn't seem anybody loves him.

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1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I really like Samuel, but that is more fan and because I like potential.  He can be a force and scores on a fairly high amount of touches.  If they are going for YAC he seems like a great choice.  I have always seen him more as weapon than receiver.  A poor man's Percy Harvin.  (By this viewpoint Jeff Smith is a very poor man's Curtis Samuel.)  I would imagine that most OC would look at him and see a guy they can scheme to success, but I would probably prefer a true outside weapon - Robinson, Golladay, Godwin should all be firmly ahead of him as targets.  It will all come down to price.  Considering how often he was in trade rumors and not moved a bunch of teams probably like him, but it doesn't seem anybody loves him.

Agreed on all front's. I guess the question is does Douglas consider those three? The Top WR salaries are around 18-20m. Would Douglas splurge on one of these guys?

Heres some clips from Samuel this year. I see a guy that is dynamic - Can highpoint the ball. Catches with the hands often and runs tough. As the title states he catches everything. 

I see a WR that needed time to develop and is going to be star if he goes to the right place. I mentioned Deebo Samuel but this is kind of like a poor man's Tyreek Hill. Theres some serious upside there. Would be super pumped if we sign him. 

For anyone that thinks he can't do those tough runs that Deebo Samuel does please check out 2:58. How many guys can be successful on all these inside runs. Have diving fully extended hand catches mid field AND beat the defense deep. 

As you all saw by Chris Godwins stats this year how often you're targeted heavily influences your stats. Samuel caught a very high percentage of his catches and as you can see above theres a whole bunch of diving/Deep balls.  I think this guy is going to sign for 8-10m but his ceiling is the same as the top few guys in terms of impacting the game. The Sky is the limit for him. 

For those that play fantasy - If this guy signs on a team with a Legit QB you need to get him on your team. 

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49 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

Totally did. Loved your take on it. 

I will just say in response to your post: While Deebo and Aiyuk are both bigger Samuel runs tough and did some things last year that Deebo/Aiyuk can't. He has some tough runs inside and theres vision there and theres a toughness that 99% of WR's don't have. 

This is just one game. On that 45 yard run no one see's Deebo there? If you look at his other highlights he's running inside as well. He runs hard. 

 

Oh I absolutely think Samuel can fill a Deebo/Aiyuk role in a SF style offense, and would be great. I think the use of the WR's in the run game is very clever to open things up for the back and Samuel would be great there, plus he's growing and developing as a player. He was kind of a RB/WR hybrid coming out of college and really was clicking late last year. 

The height/weight/YAC stuff was me thinking out loud about how draft prospects might fit without actually saying that, too early in the morning to be posting, but that's where I was going with there. 

The real point of my post was that I think that the role Deebo and Aiyuk play in SF is not actually the most important role that the Jets need to fill in the WR/TE group - which is that elite target monster guy. It's Kittle in SF but usually an X receiver type as someone else pointed out.

The OP looking at Samuel as an alternative to a Robinson/Golladay/Godwin and I don't think he is at all. The Jets need to find that guy and I think it's really, really important that they do. I do think, kind of similar to Deebo and Aiyuk, Samuel can help bring an offense with that alpha passing game monster to another level - I just don't think he IS that guy. Although like Deebo/Aiyuk he's potentially nice depth for the role.

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4 hours ago, AlexVanDyke said:

How about Samuel and Alshon Jeffrey to go with Mims and crowder.  Very diverse skill set of Wideouts.  Berrios rounds out the core 5

It will be interesting what the new guys think of what is here already.  Guys like Jeff and Vyncint Smith have some promise.  They might be near immediate cuts or integral parts of the O.  They were both projects but physically are as good as anybody.  They have been around long enough that it is time to sh*t or get off the pot.  Jeff had suspect hands coming out, but that has not seemed a problem.  Vyncint was penciled in as a starter and then inexplicably got almost no run at WR.   Maybe that was Gase.  A bunch of inexplicable sh*t happened this year.  You can add Berrios to that.  He doesn't have home run speed but seems like he can be very effective and the kind of guy you can scheme open.  It will be interesting if they see more value in these guys than Gase, or if they are all dumped for guys they know.

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4 minutes ago, AlexVanDyke said:

I think with the smiths, the onl only way they stick around is if they can be valuable on special teams and IMO, that would only be if we decide to keep 6 Wrs.  I don’t think either of them would be a 4th wr in an ideal world .

I think Vyncint was looked at pretty favorably as a gunner in 2019.  He didn't see much work in 2020 at all.  It is obvious that any back end WR will have to excel at "collateral duties." 

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