Rich Cimini vs Conner Hughes on if the Jets will draft a QB

[Jet Blast]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

let's play the what if game

 

what if 23 year old Sam Darnold gets traded to a team who finds great success with Sam Darnold? 

it reflects poorly on JD for giving up too soon on Darnold. 

What if Deshaun Watson costs too much and the team still sucks? 

it reflects poorly on JD for getting fleeced and other free agent/draft moves get scrutinized

what if the Jets draft Zach Wilson and he spends his life on Injured reserve? 

it reflects poorly on JD for overdrafting a mid-major dude who never played anyone real 

what if the Jets draft Justin Fields and he isn't instant good? 

it reflects poorly on JD for planting his flag on a QB who needs time to develop

 

but what if the Jets stick with Sam Darnold for another year and gosh darn it, what do you know, it just didn't work out and maybe James Morgan gets to play or whatever

it reflects poorly on Mac for overdrafting Darnold and gives JD a chance to "monetize" a so called "wasted" 4th round pick, maybe find a vet somewhere who can spot start like Nick Mullins  

Keeping Sam Darnold besides being the cheapest option in absolute terms, buys JD and Saleh a "free year" 

it's house money

eventually they will have to make a big call at QB and yes that's always risky but to do it in year 2 of JD and year 1 of Saleh pushes the timetable forward for when these dudes can be fired for when it all goes badly 

it's easier to blame Gase and Mac guys who are already gone and not make a big move at all 

 

You are correct... if the assumption is that Douglas is more concerned with job security than winning a championship.

I am not sure job security is his first priority. I sure hope not! If it is, let's save time and fire him now. I want a GM who is willing to put his ass on the line to do what he believes is the right thing.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

imagine you are JD. 

if you used a 4th round pick on a QB, wouldn't you want to know if he could play at all? 

I mean you believed in the dude enough to draft him in your first draft ever as a GM. the last coaching staff said he's too raw and buried him. But the last coaching staff didn't know jack squat about coaching.

besides all the other reasons, keeping darnold is also a secret James Morgan play

If JD doesnt think he can upgrade from James Morgan, then wtf are we doing here...lol 

James Morgan?  really? 

[football guy]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

Well first off I've been pretty consistent in that the Jets will keep Sam, so if you're asking when there will be a declarative "he's our QB", there won't be one. I don't even think they'll make that statement after the draft. There is no date, there has never been a date, and unless they're entirely departing from their plan, they most certainly won't trade him by the start of FA. I think Marcus Mariota finds a new home before there's any "clarity" on Sam Darnold's future, and I know fans will be critical of that because in their mind the Jets should take advantage while teams still have a need, but unless someone makes an offer they can't refuse I have no reason to believe he'll be traded anytime soon. Everything I've heard and everything I've posted is that the FO feels like Sam Darnold will be back. I'm sorry that disturbs people; I'm sorry that people are in denial. I can't control that. All I know is that I have no agenda. I can rationalize it and provide my own spin, but I'm working off of what I'm being told not necessarily what I want

 

1 hour ago, football guy said:

I have a hard time believing that the Jets FO doesn't already know the answer to this. I guess maybe this year is a little different because they haven't gotten as much face-time with the players. Usually scouts/execs can attend practices, are at live games, and have plenty of data to go off of. In a traditional offseason, the rest is more cross-referencing and character checks, but my guess is Douglas had a grade on Wilson dating back to December. With that, they must already know by now if they think Wilson is head-and-shoulders above Darnold. I think they're spending more time evaluating Darnold then they are Wilson, while giving the coaches a chance to evaluate both. 

 

This from Breer: 

Quote

Four teams have called the Jets to inquire about Darnold’s availability. Each was met with an interesting response, told that the team, with its new coaching staff getting its footing, is still evaluating the quarterback position. That, of course, is not a “no.”

New offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and his lieutenants have been taking Jets GM Joe Douglas and his scouts through all the ins and outs of what they want schematically, and what they look for in players individually. Now, for what I think: Douglas, and his scouting brain trust of Rex Hogan, Phil Savage and Chad Alexander have had time to get a really good look at BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, and even if they don’t know them yet as well as they’ll need to in April, the fact that dealing Darnold is a consideration tells you that they’re at least intrigued by something there.

The interesting thing is the 23-year-old Darnold is only two years older than Fields and Wilson, and three years older than Lance. And it’d be very easy for another team to look at Darnold, and the situation he was in, and deduce that the still-raw talent he’s got can very much be harvested. Which, then, could lead to Douglas having the ability to get even more draft capital to work with to surround a quarterback taken with the second pick. That is, of course, assuming that Deshaun Watson isn’t in play in a few weeks.

Either way, the Jets are in a decent spot here, regardless of where they decide to go. And right now? Right now, if I’m a team that prefers Darnold to, say, Mariota or Wentz, I’m probably holding tight on making a big quarterback move.

I'm not claiming to be right. What I know is that the plan has not been to rush a trade for him. I know the staff likes him, the building likes him. If a team offers a 1st round pick, I have a hard time believing the Jets won't deal him (that much is my opinion). I have been told nothing of the sort. But just thinking outload, I've been told time and time again that the evaluation process comes down to one thing and one thing only (which I have now repeated at least 1000 times):  

• QB Sam Darnold + value of the #2 pick in a trade; or 
• QB #2 pick + value of Sam Darnold in a trade. 

It's of my opinion that if the Jets were to get a 1st round pick for Sam, they would have to take it, even if your grade on Wilson is the same or slightly lower than Darnold's. Why? Well for one, taking advantage of the market and the situation. If you can get a 1st round pick for a flawed player who has only 1 year left on a cost-controlled deal while knowing you can easily replace him with a player who has similar upside who will be cost controlled for 4-years, you take that deal. Secondly, you still allow yourself to have 5 1st round picks in the span of 2-years (3 this year, 2 next... potentially more) to build up the foundation of the roster. Third, you maintain your flexibility if a QB like Watson were to come available. 

 

I've been told nothing has changed, so I'm going to maintain the belief I've maintained for months now. The people who say this have never steered me wrong. The second they say that Darnold is going to get traded I will believe it wholeheartedly. Right now, that hasn't been the case. If a team formally offers a 1st round pick then wow... I would be critical of Douglas for not making that deal but what do I know. 

[JustInFudge]

30 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

We cannot control what other teams do.

To make roster choices based on what others do is folly.

If the Jets lover Wilson and or Fields they should take them at 2 no question.

If there is a doubt you do not take them because you can get a guy you do love at 2 or you trade own and get 3 guys you love.

Houston won 4 games with Watson

Tampa and KC both essentially built their teams before bringing in those QBs.

Use you draft resources to build a good team and then find the QB.

 

Tampa and KC were starting former #1 overall picks before Mahomes/Brady.

[Dinamite]

4 minutes ago, football guy said:

 

 

This from Breer: 

I'm not claiming to be right. What I know is that the plan has not been to rush a trade for him. I know the staff likes him, the building likes him. If a team offers a 1st round pick, I have a hard time believing the Jets won't deal him (that much is my opinion). I have been told nothing of the sort. But just thinking outload, I've been told time and time again that the evaluation process comes down to one thing and one thing only (which I have now repeated at least 1000 times):  

• QB Sam Darnold + value of the #2 pick in a trade; or 
• QB #2 pick + value of Sam Darnold in a trade. 

It's of my opinion that if the Jets were to get a 1st round pick for Sam, they would have to take it, even if your grade on Wilson is the same or slightly lower than Darnold's. Why? Well for one, taking advantage of the market and the situation. If you can get a 1st round pick for a flawed player who has only 1 year left on a cost-controlled deal while knowing you can easily replace him with a player who has similar upside who will be cost controlled for 4-years, you take that deal. Secondly, you still allow yourself to have 5 1st round picks in the span of 2-years (3 this year, 2 next... potentially more) to build up the foundation of the roster. Third, you maintain your flexibility if a QB like Watson were to come available. 

 

I've been told nothing has changed, so I'm going to maintain the belief I've maintained for months now. The people who say this have never steered me wrong. The second they say that Darnold is going to get traded I will believe it wholeheartedly. Right now, that hasn't been the case. If a team formally offers a 1st round pick then wow... I would be critical of Douglas for not making that deal but what do I know. 

Thanks for the information.  You seem convinced that if the jets were to draft a QB, Wilson would be the guy.  Is this based on inside information or just your opinion?

[football guy]

23 minutes ago, Dinamite said:

Thanks for the information.  You seem convinced that if the jets were to draft a QB, Wilson would be the guy.  Is this based on inside information or just your opinion?

No one from the team has told me that. However, it’s a combination of what I see with my own eyes, what the respected talent evaluators pass along, what I’ve heard from reps, and just keeping a deep memory bank of info to compile/cross-reference. For example: 

[bitonti]

43 minutes ago, JiF said:

If JD doesnt think he can upgrade from James Morgan, then wtf are we doing here...lol 

James Morgan?  really? 

If Tom brady can be the goat from Rd 6 and Russell Wilson can chill out in Goodell superior bowl box from Rd 3 anything is possible 

 

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

Tampa and KC were starting former #1 overall picks before Mahomes/Brady.

Yes, which means what exactly?

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

Yes, which means what exactly?

They prioritized QB first while building a team.  Same way any smart team would and how the Jets should be operating as well. 

[JustInFudge]

25 minutes ago, bitonti said:

If Tom brady can be the goat from Rd 6 and Russell Wilson can chill out in Goodell superior bowl box from Rd 3 anything is possible 

 

Yes, the 1 in 10000000000000 odds way is definitely the way you build your team. 

[sec101row23]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

They prioritized QB first while building a team.  Same way any smart team would and how the Jets should be operating as well. 

KC didn’t draft Smith though.  

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

KC didn’t draft Smith though.  

No but Ried's first order of business, was to trade for him because as a Super Bowl Champion, legendary coach, he realized it would be impossible for him to evaluate his new team with out a capable QB.

 

[Cp561]

13 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Plus 1000!!! This will happen btw. The odds are extremely high at least one of Wilson or Fields lights it up while Darnold is who he has been the past three years. What a wasted opportunity. Its disgusting and I will never forgive Douglas for it.

He hasn't even done anything yet calm your t*ts man

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

That may be standing practice in a broad sense for GMs, but at the QB position - I can't stomach that. One on ones, white boards, work outs, pro days and combine do more than just reinforce confident nodding. Add in the fact that guys like Trey Lance played 1 game this year, and I really can't believe JD's got his wish list written in stone. 

I could be wrong but I think more of what he is alluding too is that the heavy lifting in regards to the scouting process is done by this point in the season and the pieces you've mentioned are the finishing pieces.  The grade may change a little bit based on workouts and white board work, especially where it comes to re ranking prospects, but I believe they have a general consensus on the value of the players and how they grade out.  Obviously things change, nothing is written in stone, but I do believe they have a fairly set grade that they feel comfortable with at this point.  I think realistically you both are saying the same thing actually. 

This year makes everything murkier in terms of evaluations because you can say players developed physically but if they opted out of the season or did not have a season (like lance) its hard to project how they grew football wise from when their last film was established.  In that case you have to really rely on your past grades for players which hopefully are good, and then refine them with whatever opportunities are allotted to teams this offseason. 

[Beerfish]

13 minutes ago, JiF said:

They prioritized QB first while building a team.  Same way any smart team would and how the Jets should be operating as well. 

And the QBs they drafted 1st were no good at the time.

They built the team, then had success and low and behold they are winners.

Are you saying that tampa just won the super bowl because they drafted jameis winston?

[Sperm Edwards]

20 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yes, the 1 in 10000000000000 odds way is definitely the way you build your team. 

Amazing how that logic holds true for HOF QBs but not for a second OT prospect after we already have a great young one. 

Also...

"Holy crap these elite QBs can still carve a defense apart even with a backup tackle or two. BUT they can be contained if facing relentless pressure from a pair of edge rushers (plus a force at NT plus the rare ILB who's worth a top 5-10 pick) since they can't double-team everybody. 

So the conclusion isn't, "Wow we should put together such a killer defense that can generate consistent pressure without blitzing, and we further need to take our OL depth more seriously because injuries happen." Instead it's, "We need to draft a second tackle with our #2 overall pick," because presumably that immunizes both starting tackles from injuries.

Enjoy the "logic" .

[Sperm Edwards]

17 minutes ago, JiF said:

No but Ried's first order of business, was to trade for him because as a Super Bowl Champion, legendary coach, he realized it would be impossible for him to evaluate his new team with out a capable QB.

 

No, he should have built a better team to then evaluate Alex Smith. Duhs and stuff.

[Lupz27]

14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If we keep Sam we're trading down.... and we should.

Monetize that pick with Atlanta or Cincy.  In fact, I'd trade down twice and try to get at least one, maybe two 1st rounders next year somehow.

The Jets could still end up with either the second best OT, one of the Top 2 WRs, the best TE or an elite defender by trading down into the 8-12 range.

I remember when Parcells did this and missed out on like 3 HOFers just saying.

[bitonti]

43 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Amazing how that logic holds true for HOF QBs but not for a second OT prospect after we already have a great young one. 

Also...

"Holy crap these elite QBs can still carve a defense apart even with a backup tackle or two. BUT they can be contained if facing relentless pressure from a pair of edge rushers (plus a force at NT plus the rare ILB who's worth a top 5-10 pick) since they can't double-team everybody. 

So the conclusion isn't, "Wow we should put together such a killer defense that can generate consistent pressure without blitzing, and we further need to take our OL depth more seriously because injuries happen." Instead it's, "We need to draft a second tackle with our #2 overall pick," because presumably that immunizes both starting tackles from injuries.

Enjoy the "logic" .

I feel like no one told Sperm that teams start 2 tackles

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, bitonti said:

besides all the other reasons, keeping darnold is also a secret James Morgan play

[Philc1]

Smart move is to keep Sam another season and draft a qb at 23

[JustInFudge]

56 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

And the QBs they drafted 1st were no good at the time.

They built the team, then had success and low and behold they are winners.

Are you saying that tampa just won the super bowl because they drafted jameis winston?

I feel like you're missing my point, both teams had adequate QB's and acquired them in different ways.  Those decisions allowed both teams to assess their team.  Sam Darnold is so bad he makes everything on the team worse, you dont really know what you have on either side of the ball because he sucks so badly.  That's the point.  How much does keeping Sam Darnold around stunt the growth of Becton, Mims and the newly acquired weapons you think are going to magically perform without a QB.  Go look at Robby, JD admitted he undervalued him because Sam sucks.  How much pressure does Sam Darnold put on the Defense?  Is that what you're advocating?   Go get a bunch of talent, stick them with the worst QB in the NFL, fail and then just magically find your QB over the next few years? 

Bonkers that a Jets fan thinks it's that easy.  

[playtowinthegame]

I can't foresee Joe Douglas already has his top 100 liquid nails'd down. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

I feel like no one told me that successful teams don't ever draft two tackles at/near the very top of the draft in successive seasons, or that good & great linemen can be found well after #2 overall, and usually are.

fixed

[kelly]

17 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

You are putting way to much confidence in what anonymous message board posters say.

[Marshmello]

 

[maury77]

11 minutes ago, Marshmello said:

 

You should start a thread with this.

[Bungaman]

18 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

@Mogglez and @football guy both have been outstanding with what they have provided this board————for anyone to come out here and trash them cause they are not following the narrative they want is preposterous.  
 

Again they both have said essentially same thing, the Jets are not against keeping  Darnold, but they are going to, as an organization, do their due diligence and if they can move on from Darnold they will; but the Jets don’t think that Sam Darnold sucks despite his stats, lack of wins and bone head plays.  

I haven't read the whole thread closely (I am at work, of course  ) but ... one possible advantage to keeping Darnold and trading a few slots down (not below 12 or thereabouts) is that this year's number two pick could get a first rounder this year, and maybe another next year, plus other substantial draft/player capital if they sincerely feel they can straighten Darnold out. 

If they fail to make him competent, they would then have those extra picks for next year, plus a better supporting cast this year. That draft  capital would enable them to move up for a QB in a less competitive year. After  this year's QB musical chairs, and four new QB's going in the first round, would there be that much competition for the first or second rated QB in next year's draft? I don't know - someone who knows the college ranks might be able to answer - but maybe next year would be a better year to move up, because you might not have to move up as far to get a good one. And it this is an expensive year to move up, maybe it's a good year to be a seller.

 

OK - back to the salt mines.

[Dcat]

5 minutes ago, Bungaman said:

I haven't read the whole thread closely (I am at work, of course  ) but ... one possible advantage to keeping Darnold and trading a few slots down (not below 12 or thereabouts) is that this year's number two pick could get a first rounder this year, and maybe another next year, plus other substantial draft/player capital if they sincerely feel they can straighten Darnold out. 

If they fail to make him competent, they would then have those extra picks for next year, plus a better supporting cast this year. That draft  capital would enable them to move up for a QB in a less competitive year. After  this year's QB musical chairs, and four new QB's going in the first round, would there be that much competition for the first or second rated QB in next year's draft? I don't know - someone who knows the college ranks might be able to answer - but maybe next year would be a better year to move up, because you might not have to move up as far to get a good one. And it this is an expensive year to move up, maybe it's a good year to be a seller.

 

OK - back to the salt mines.

Makes perfect sense. Logical. But somehow though, it's not enough to change that having to watch Darnold next season makes me want to vomit.

[jetswinbaby!]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Thanks...

Now, I'm dizzy too...

[Adobolo]

36 minutes ago, Marshmello said:

 

Noting we didn't know except shef mentioned wentz as a possibility! 

[oatmeal]

57 minutes ago, Marshmello said:

 

Schefter backing off that darnold will be back ledge. Funny he’s saying the same things many of us have been saying for weeks now ?

[long time suffering Jets f]

9 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Schefter backing off that darnold will be back ledge. Funny he’s saying the same things many of us have been saying for weeks now ?

Whoever loses out on Wentz (Colts or Bears) will be sure to engage in talks with the Jets about Darnold. Take the 1st rounder and run with it.

[jetstream23]

6 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

I remember when Parcells did this and missed out on like 3 HOFers just saying.

Joe Douglas is better at picking players than Parcells.

[C Mart]

22 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

They both claim to have inside sources yet they come to 2 diametrically different thoughts on what will happen.

Statements made this week:

Connor Hughes

BrooklynRob11: In your opinion, who is under center for the Jets in Week 1?

HUGHES: Zach Wilson.

Rich Cimini

The Jets have two paths back to respectability: (1) Trade for Deshaun Watson, who would be their best quarterback since Joe Namath. (2) Use their draft capital (four of the first 66 picks) to improve the roster, building around incumbent QB Sam Darnold. They can't do both because the price to get Watson could clean them out of premium draft picks. They could throw a curve and draft a quarterback with the second overall pick, but the early sense is that it will be Watson or option 2. If it's the latter, GM Joe Douglas needs to make the picks count. -- Rich Cimini

Skip to 48:30 for why Connor believes Jets will select Zach Wilson

 

Connor via the athletic (his opinion..no sources indicated) 

Who gives the Jets a better chance to win Week 1 against Atlanta: Sam Darnold, Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater, or Zach Wilson? 

HUGHES: I’ve seen enough of Darnold. He’d be better in LaFleur’s offense. Absolutely. But that doesn’t make him a franchise quarterback. His decision making is bad. His mechanics are bad. He reads defense like I’d read Mandarin. And … you have to pay him after the year. It’s time to move on.

If the Jets can’t get Watson, I’d start fresh with Wilson. The kid’s skill set is tailor-made for LaFleur’s offense. The lack-of competition he played at BYU scares me some, but who did Patrick Mahomes see at Texas Tech? It’s not like Justin Herbert played an SEC schedule at Oregon. If you can play quarterback … you can play quarterback.

Draft Wilson. Restart the rookie contract. Trade Darnold for a late first-round pick or second. Build it from there.