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Rich Cimini vs Conner Hughes on if the Jets will draft a QB


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12 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Connor via the athletic (his opinion..no sources indicated) 

Who gives the Jets a better chance to win Week 1 against Atlanta: Sam Darnold, Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater, or Zach Wilson? 

HUGHES: I’ve seen enough of Darnold. He’d be better in LaFleur’s offense. Absolutely. But that doesn’t make him a franchise quarterback. His decision making is bad. His mechanics are bad. He reads defense like I’d read Mandarin. And … you have to pay him after the year. It’s time to move on.

If the Jets can’t get Watson, I’d start fresh with Wilson. The kid’s skill set is tailor-made for LaFleur’s offense. The lack-of competition he played at BYU scares me some, but who did Patrick Mahomes see at Texas Tech? It’s not like Justin Herbert played an SEC schedule at Oregon. If you can play quarterback … you can play quarterback.

Draft Wilson. Restart the rookie contract. Trade Darnold for a late first-round pick or second. Build it from there.

 

Thank you for posting but this is dam silly by Connor.

Wilson is not as good as Mahomes was when he came out of college!  Wilson was terrible until this year.  Mahomes was always good and only started dropping because people fell in love with Mike Truboverrated just like now!

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Whatever JD actually does, his whole strategy begins with making everyone believe that the Jets like, believe in, and will keep Darnold.

There’s nothing more to any of this than that. JD doesn’t tell anyone anything that isn’t purposefully leaked.

On the other hand, if state secrets are getting leaked, he should be fired, on the spot, or a dragnet implemented to find out wtf is going on at 1 Jets Drive. Loose lips sinks ships. The most popular Jets message board is rife with compromat? Jesus, give me a break.

All of this leaked info — it’s either part of the smoke screen, or worse, it‘s legit and just confirms what a clown car this FO is.

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Four teams have called the Jets to inquire about Darnold’s availability. Each was met with an interesting response, told that the team, with its new coaching staff getting its footing, is still evaluating the quarterback position. That, of course, is not a “no.”

New offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and his lieutenants have been taking Jets GM Joe Douglas and his scouts through all the ins and outs of what they want schematically, and what they look for in players individually. Now, for what I think: Douglas, and his scouting brain trust of Rex Hogan, Phil Savage and Chad Alexander have had time to get a really good look at BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, and even if they don’t know them yet as well as they’ll need to in April, the fact that dealing Darnold is a consideration tells you that they’re at least intrigued by something there.

The interesting thing is the 23-year-old Darnold is only two years older than Fields and Wilson, and three years older than Lance. And it’d be very easy for another team to look at Darnold, and the situation he was in, and deduce that the still-raw talent he’s got can very much be harvested. Which, then, could lead to Douglas having the ability to get even more draft capital to work with to surround a quarterback taken with the second pick. That is, of course, assuming that Deshaun Watson isn’t in play in a few weeks.

Either way, the Jets are in a decent spot here, regardless of where they decide to go. And right now? Right now, if I’m a team that prefers Darnold to, say, Mariota or Wentz, I’m probably holding tight on making a big quarterback move.

Hmm. If I was thinking of trading Darnold I would tell the teams it depends what the offer is. Are they really just telling them "we are still evaluating the QB position" and not gauging what the offers are? This is a real weird way of doing business. I am very surprised they are telling other teams the same BS as they are to the media. In my opinion this is a huge leap of logic that Breer and Schefter are making. Just because they haven't shut the door entirely doesn't mean its more likely than not he is traded. If anything the Jets not soliciting offers but rather being non committal makes it more likely they keep Darnold. 

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14 hours ago, football guy said:

 

 

This from Breer: 

I'm not claiming to be right. What I know is that the plan has not been to rush a trade for him. I know the staff likes him, the building likes him. If a team offers a 1st round pick, I have a hard time believing the Jets won't deal him (that much is my opinion). I have been told nothing of the sort. But just thinking outload, I've been told time and time again that the evaluation process comes down to one thing and one thing only (which I have now repeated at least 1000 times):  

  • QB Sam Darnold + value of the #2 pick in a trade; or 
  • QB #2 pick + value of Sam Darnold in a trade. 

It's of my opinion that if the Jets were to get a 1st round pick for Sam, they would have to take it, even if your grade on Wilson is the same or slightly lower than Darnold's. Why? Well for one, taking advantage of the market and the situation. If you can get a 1st round pick for a flawed player who has only 1 year left on a cost-controlled deal while knowing you can easily replace him with a player who has similar upside who will be cost controlled for 4-years, you take that deal. Secondly, you still allow yourself to have 5 1st round picks in the span of 2-years (3 this year, 2 next... potentially more) to build up the foundation of the roster. Third, you maintain your flexibility if a QB like Watson were to come available. 

 

I've been told nothing has changed, so I'm going to maintain the belief I've maintained for months now. The people who say this have never steered me wrong. The second they say that Darnold is going to get traded I will believe it wholeheartedly. Right now, that hasn't been the case. If a team formally offers a 1st round pick then wow... I would be critical of Douglas for not making that deal but what do I know. 


My thing with that is if the Qb you currently have youd trade for a first round pick if it was an option  then you don’t really believe he’s capable of ever being a great Qb.. you may kinda like him but you don’t love him..

Which is a fair assessment of Darnold.. I think in a perfect situation on a good team he can eventually be a “capable” starting QB but in today’s game where does that get you? I don’t want a QB who’s upside is middle of the road starter..

Let’s be honest here the Texans saying they won’t trade Deshaun means absolutely nothing.. in the end they will trade him  before the draft and probably to Miami where he and Allen dominate the division for a decade while we have a QB who’s ceiling is 15-20 best QB in the league one day if everything broke perfectly for him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Marshmello said:

 

This is exactly what I said in the other thread (got some neg rep for it) they have no earthly clue what they're doing at QB.  They dip their toes in everything, are risk advertised, this why Connor Hughes is just stupid hack, to think they've evaluated any QB in this draft is asinine.  They have no idea what they're doing at QB.  Everything is on the table but they're not trading Sam without a back up plan.  

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19 minutes ago, JiF said:

This is exactly what I said in the other thread (got some neg rep for it) they have no earthly clue what they're doing at QB.  They dip their toes in everything, are risk advertised, this why Connor Hughes is just stupid hack, to think they've evaluated any QB in this draft is asinine.  They have no idea what they're doing at QB.  Everything is on the table but they're not trading Sam without a back up plan.  

Yeah well when Adam said weeks ago “I would be surprised if Sam isn’t the Jets QB next season” - everyone took that as the gospel. He’s now saying the opposite  and the key thing is one of the things he said: “if the jets had their guy they wouldn’t be looking at other options or fielding calls for Darnold”. - This is common sense, Darnold days as a NYJ are done ✅ 

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6 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Looking at teams that took qb at 1 or 2, when's the last time that worked? Peyton Manning 

Right, like no team should ever do it again!!!!!!!!!!!!

Instead, lets try to find a diamond in the rough because that's the key to success!

 

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9 minutes ago, oatmeal said:

Yeah well when Adam said weeks ago “I would be surprised if Sam isn’t the Jets QB next season” - everyone took that as the gospel. He’s now saying the opposite  and the key thing is one of the things he said: “if the jets had their guy they wouldn’t be looking at other options or fielding calls for Darnold”. - This is common sense, Darnold days as a NYJ are done ✅ 

I hope you're right but I got a strange feeling if they cant work out a trade, he's the QB next season.  I just dont see JD taking Fields and certainly not Wilson at #2.

 

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I think the Johnsons are thinking about not paying an iffy QB $20mm/year and whether they can sell more tickets with Wilson or Fields.  
 

They will push JD to his limit on an offer for Watson.  
 

If they can save face with a premium draft pick they trade Darnold. 

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42 minutes ago, JiF said:

I hope you're right but I got a strange feeling if they cant work out a trade, he's the QB next season.  I just dont see JD taking Fields and certainly not Wilson at #2.

 

A QB on a rookie deal and no baggage >>>>>>>>>>> 3 year turnover, injury prone, low football IQ project, on a expiring contract 

And when you factor in Salehs non commitment to Sam, Jamal and Denzel both stating that “I think he will be fine where ever he lands”, The Jets accepting calls on Darnold and inquiring about Stafford.. iMO The picture is already painted very clear. I highly doubt Sam is the starting QB for any team this coming season, let alone the Jets. 
 

 

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53 minutes ago, JiF said:

Right, like no team should ever do it again!!!!!!!!!!!!

Instead, lets try to find a diamond in the rough because that's the key to success!

 

JD already made that pick he's James Morgan and whether or not we think it's smart isn't relevant. JD will make moves designed to have as many of his 20 picks contribute as possible. GMs are ultimately judged by how many of their draft picks get starting jobs etc. 

 

31 minutes ago, varjet said:

I think the Johnsons are thinking about not paying an iffy QB $20mm/year and whether they can sell more tickets with Wilson or Fields.  

The Jets always sell out. The Jets had the second highest attendance in 2019 behind Dallas

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/attendance.htm

 

 

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

Looking at teams that took qb at 1 or 2, when's the last time that worked? Peyton Manning 

They’res still a better chance at getting a franchise Qb high then later on..

Not taking a Qb til the middle rounds just because they’re have been franchise Qbs taken later is not a good idea.

If the Jets don’t like Wilson or Fields  then fine but if they do then you take a Qb there.

 

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10 minutes ago, RogerVick1980 said:

They’res still a better chance at getting a franchise Qb high then later on..

Not taking a Qb til the middle rounds just because they’re have been franchise Qbs taken later is not a good idea.

If the Jets don’t like Wilson or Fields  then fine but if they do then you take a Qb there.

 

let's look at QB at 2 overall

the old Mitchell Trubisky pick 

Carson Wentz

Marcus Mariota

RG3

Ryan Leaf

Rick Mirer

the league is full of cautionary tales of taking a QB at 2

hard find many great 2 pick QBs in history, tbh 

Donovan McNabb is probably the closest one in 1999 and then Archie Manning in 71. 

not that these players at this draft slot are bad necessarily just that 1) they aren't 1 overall and 2) the teams taking them aren't exactly ready for the QB investment 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

let's look at QB at 2 overall

the old Mitchell Trubisky pick 

Carson Wentz

Marcus Mariota

RG3

Ryan Leaf

Rick Mirer

the league is full of cautionary tales of taking a QB at 2

hard find many great 2 pick QBs in history, tbh 

Donovan McNabb is probably the closest one in 1999 and then Archie Manning in 71. 

not that these players at this draft slot are bad necessarily just that 1) they aren't 1 overall and 2) the teams taking them aren't exactly ready for the QB investment 

Do you have a list of Right Tackles taken 2 overall?

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11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

let's look at QB at 2 overall

the old Mitchell Trubisky pick 

Carson Wentz

Marcus Mariota

RG3

Ryan Leaf

Rick Mirer

the league is full of cautionary tales of taking a QB at 2

hard find many great 2 pick QBs in history, tbh 

Donovan McNabb is probably the closest one in 1999 and then Archie Manning in 71. 

not that these players at this draft slot are bad necessarily just that 1) they aren't 1 overall and 2) the teams taking them aren't exactly ready for the QB investment 

 

 

 

 

And none of them having anything to do with Wilson or Fields as prospects..

You evaluate Wilson and Fields  on their own not on what past 2nd picks did.

 

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3 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Just an idiotic post. Just because QBs failed at #2 does not mean that taking a QB is riskier at #2. Historical trends mean nothing when evaluating Fields or Wilson for selection at #2

Historical trends shouldn't mean anything, according to logic, yet the Jets can't seem to win in Philadelphia 

 

 

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Just now, RogerVick1980 said:

You evaluate Wilson and Fields  on their own not on what past 2nd picks did.

on the other hand I've loathed Darnold simply because he went to the same school as Mark Sanchez and that turned out to be frighteningly accurate 

what's the new USC QB? Kedon Slovis? maybe we should go for the trifecta

"those that cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it" -George Santayana  

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8 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Just an idiotic post. Just because QBs failed at #2 does not mean that taking a QB is riskier at #2. Historical trends mean nothing when evaluating Fields or Wilson for selection at #2

They actually do because it indicates that teams are overreaching. It's wishful drafting. Especially when the #2 pick isn't even the first QB taken. 

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On 2/8/2021 at 11:14 AM, peekskill68 said:

This really doesn't seem that complicated. Everyone wants JD to think in absolutes - pay whatever it takes to get Watson, dump Sam for whatever you can get and move on, etc.  This dude isn't wired that way.  EVERYTHING he does is measured by relative value.  He has a base case which is his current roster and upcoming draft picks.  If callers for Sam are all offering a bag of dix and if Houston is looking for 3 #1's plus Q and Becton, he's rolling with Sam.  Houston lowers their demands or another team overpays for Sam, he adjusts.  No different than "Jet For Life" Jamal.  He saw Seattle offer more than his value and BOOM...

 

Why are the only 2 choices Deshaun Watson or Sam Darnold?  

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19 minutes ago, bitonti said:

on the other hand I've loathed Darnold simply because he went to the same school as Mark Sanchez and that turned out to be frighteningly accurate 

what's the new USC QB? Kedon Slovis? maybe we should go for the trifecta

"those that cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it" -George Santayana  

You don’t draft on trends.. How many good Michigan Qbs were in the pros before Brady? Jim Harbaugh?

Just like you don’t pass on a Qb because of  the history of 2 picks..

”Hey I really love what I see from Wilson on tape but theyres been busts at 2 let’s blindly rely on  a Qb in the 6th round because Brady was picked  there.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, RogerVick1980 said:

You don’t draft on trends.. How many good Michigan Qbs were in the pros before Brady? Jim Harbaugh?

Just like you don’t pass on a Qb because of  the history of 2 picks..

”Hey I really love what I see from Wilson on tape but theyres been busts at 2 let’s blindly rely on  a Qb in the 6th round because Brady was picked  there.

Which tape are we talking about Wilson versus Coastal Carolina? Utah? 

the dude's played no one 

when a guy like that gets pushed up to 2 out of desperation that's where mistakes are made

Fields, for all his flaws, has been through the ringer. I wouldn't be comfortable with either at 2 but Fields feels more like a JD/Jets pick than the "Lets get Zach Wilson drafted by the NY Jets" media blitz that seems to be coming out of left field 

you're right every class is different. both are reaches at 2 compared to Sewell, Smith or even Chase

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7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Which tape are we talking about Wilson versus Coastal Carolina? Utah? 

the dude's played no one 

when a guy like that gets pushed up to 2 out of desperation that's where mistakes are made

Fields, for all his flaws, has been through the ringer. I wouldn't be comfortable with either at 2 but Fields feels more like a JD/Jets pick than the "Lets get Zach Wilson drafted by the NY Jets" media blitz that seems to be coming out of left field 

you're right every class is different. both are reaches at 2 compared to Sewell, Smith or even Chase

With that logic you’d take Haskins over Josh Allen because  of competition.

regardless of competition if you watch the tape he makes some insane throws into tight  windows..

The ability is there.. I don’t see him as a reach at 2..

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, oatmeal said:

A QB on a rookie deal and no baggage >>>>>>>>>>> 3 year turnover, injury prone, low football IQ project, on a expiring contract 

And when you factor in Salehs non commitment to Sam, Jamal and Denzel both stating that “I think he will be fine where ever he lands”, The Jets accepting calls on Darnold and inquiring about Stafford.. iMO The picture is already painted very clear. I highly doubt Sam is the starting QB for any team this coming season, let alone the Jets. 
 

 

I agree on the bold 100%.  If it were me and we cant trade for Watson (which is my preference at just about any cost), then they should trade Sam and take Fields and not even think twice about it.  That said, I would sign a bridge QB and I would give Fields a year on the sideline.  Use the next 2 drafts and FA to build the team and use the bridge QB to assess what you've got, then turn it over to Fields in 2022 with a rebuilt roster.  Similar to K.C. and Mahomes.

I unfortunately, dont see it happening.  I do think they run it back with Sam.  I know there is smoke but I dont necessarily think there is fire.  It's way to early to take anything you're hearing seriously.  

 

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37 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Why are the only 2 choices Deshaun Watson or Sam Darnold?  

I don't understand the question.  There are multiple choices including drafting a QB.  It comes down to relative value with JD.  I don't believe he thinks in absolutes like "Sam is done".  I think he compares the value of the #2 pick to replace him vs. the value he can get for him via trade.  If he sees offers he considers too low, he's inclined to roll with him. If he sees offers he considers at or better his value, he trades him.  

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1 hour ago, y2k8 said:

They actually do because it indicates that teams are overreaching. It's wishful drafting. Especially when the #2 pick isn't even the first QB taken. 

That certainly has happened. People were befuddled even at the time with the Trubisky pick. But that was a FOMO move as much as anything which leads to those reaches. But those picks have literally nothing to do with our selecting a QB at #2. We have no FOMO and no need to "get ahead" of anyone to get a QB. We have the #2 spot and our only task is to evaluate whether Wilson or Fields is worthy of the #2 pick. What other teams did at other times has literally nothing to do with the potential success of our choosing a QB at #2. Absolutely nothing.

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