Rashod Bateman autopsy (+Elijah Moore)

[Chrebetfan80]

1 hour ago, redlichtie said:

Just to your point about the difference between 19 and 20.....I mentioned in my post earlier that he initially opted out for 2020 but then changed his mind when the big 10 belatedly opted to play a truncated season. It can’t have helped to have mentally checked out on the year only to then restart while the season is in full swing, He might have tried to stay in shape but I’m not sure how easy it is to do so under the unique circumstances of last year and he likely didn’t have much time to get into game shape once the decision was made to go.....I’m not sure he was fully fit or conditioned and clearly not up to game speed and they only played I think 5 or 6 games so there wasn’t the chance to play yourself into late season form.
Not an excuse but perhaps explains him being off the pace in 20 and not as impressive as he was previously.

 

Well that definitely is something to consider when looking at the difference in burst and speed.  Honestly just watching the two films its almost night and day in terms of pop.. I'll be interested to see what he tests at, still think his game needs a bunch of work, but really good testing numbers can sway my opinion because then the film reverts back to 19 where he looked like a better player. 

[Paradis]

5 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

Keenan’s 40 time is a bit of folklore, he ran at his pro day while still recovering from his knee injury.  I think people over reacted a bit causing him to slip in the draft.  He was more of a 4.57 type of guy though.  He’s just a natural receiver.  

Yea that was the product of an odd offseason - his knee injury lingered forever. Enough that teams got scared off a bit. I loved the prospect and had him right below D-Hopp.... couldn't believe we passed on him in the 3rd... 

[Paradis]

22 hours ago, win4ever said:

Right, I want to go a bit more in-depth on the stems:

The play here is a long TD, and the thing I find most interesting is his stem on the route.  He's at the top of the screen.  At first, you'll notice that annoying false step he does off the line.  However, watch the point from when he goes from fake blocking to route.  His first step is slanted to the outside, even though he's running a post.  The CB's hips get absolutely twisted to the point that he loses his footing, allowing for an easy completion.  

Clip 2, He's at the bottom of the screen. The footwork off the line gets the CB down again.  Once again, false step to start.  If this was actually a longer route, he's absolutely gone.  

Clip 3, he's at the top of the screen.  He has a subtle jab to the inside before cutting it to the outside, and you can see the CB slightly slide inside, leaving ample room for a pass.  

He's not perfect, but I like to see his testing numbers.  If he runs fast enough, I think he could be a very nice receiver.  

 

 

16 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Good thread @Paradis and this is what the draft forum is really for, throwing around those opinions and informed discussion of merits...good and bad.

first off, agreed that’s not his best film and I actually don’t think he was nearly as impressive in 2020 than in both 18 and 19. He initially opted out then re-instated when the big 10 decided to play the season, albeit truncated, whether he was properly fit or prepared to play hard in 20 I’m not sure....not an excuse, Just an observation, and some would argue that’s a red flag. Personally I’d give credit to any player for deciding to suit up in 20 at all and would understand them not having their best season as a result. Couple of those throws In that game that looked like drops were either thrown behind him or tipped.

thanks to both @win4ever and @maury77 for their spirited defenses and follow up case for the defence ....call it “the case for resuscitation!” 

I especially like the Keenan Allen comparison, would be a good college comp whether he translates as well to the NFL remains to be seen.

I’m actually somewhat surprised to hear Bateman talked about as a late first or early 2nd....I like him but I’ve only ever been thinking in terms of good value and a guy who’ll develop initially as a number 4 option but with good upside. I was thinking mid to late 3rd, if he tested way better than expected then perhaps he pushes into the early part of round 3 or maybe even sneaks into late 2.....equally he could drop into the 4th or even 5th....at that point he’s terrific value in my opinion.

at this point I’d like to present evidence in mitigation by embedding a couple of his games from 2019 but admit my technical savvy may not be up to scratch. First off I think he has some technical glitches to iron out in his route running and he’s not the most sudden in his breaks, he occasionally seems to round out a route but despite that he just always seems to get open. He’ll need some coaching up as a pro but these are fixable issues. More importantly I like that he’s a willing blocker and has produced form day 1 as a freshman. 2’34” below against Purdue is just a great example of what he is capable of, clean(ish) release, tight route, crisp cut, good hands catch, toughness to fend off and acceleration away for the score. Also love the hands and concentration on the tough contested catch at 3’53”

plenty of examples against Auburn & Penn State of tough catches, willingness to block and go across the middle. I still think that while he’s not the quickest or most ‘sudden’ of athletes he’s plenty fast enough to get open, be shifty after the catch and get deep.

i still like him but as your OP made clear he’s going to need some development but I absolutely think he’s one of those guys who turns into a very good player in the NFL. If he’s available in the late 3rd, and dependant on who we’ve already added and who else is available,  I absolutely consider him
 

 

I don't know if i have the bandwidth mid week to take on all these interesting talking points that you two have brought up, in addition others like @Chrebetfan80 and @derp

basically i'm still trying to see what you're seeing. I see a possession guy who lacks NFL athleticism. He doesn't do anything particular well, and I don't see how he survives on the outside. He's not "bad" per say, he's got some moxy at the line and tracks the ball well enough... but the lack of NFL speed and such really shows up on the outside. That game your posted RedLichtie vs Auburn was concerning how little he got going on anything again that wasn't a post -- and even when he did, DBs were able to erase and separation almost too quickly. Those clips @win4ever, that was mostly on the DB, losing his footing, getting caught with his hips turned... lot of that is just poor technique on their inside/outside shade. Bateman's getting like 5 yard cushion on some of that. 

I'll keep trying

[Paradis]

rewatching 2019, Tyler Johnson looks like he's as good if not better than Bateman. More versatile anyway. 

[Paradis]

Purdue was better. Still a gauntlet of slants and posts. He’s probably better than I give him credit for but to select Bateman, I’d have to comfortable knowing that he may never be more than inside possession guy. I doubt he’ll still be available when I as a GM would start to stare at this name on my board. 

[win4ever]

I think the big thing with him is that I need to see his testing times, especially the 40 and 3 cone.  I hate the false step release, which slows everything down for him, but it's somewhat coachable.  He looked better last year than this year, albeit might have to do with conditioning.  

Regarding Ty Johnson, I was all for picking him late even with the slower time.  

[redlichtie]

9 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Well that definitely is something to consider when looking at the difference in burst and speed.  Honestly just watching the two films its almost night and day in terms of pop.. I'll be interested to see what he tests at, still think his game needs a bunch of work, but really good testing numbers can sway my opinion because then the film reverts back to 19 where he looked like a better player. 

Agreed 100%...I think a number of players will get some benefit of the doubt if they weren’t as impressive in a shortened 2020 season and that 2019 and even 18 film is going to be very important for so many prospects AND evaluators ...these are interesting times

[redlichtie]

8 hours ago, Paradis said:

 

I don't know if i have the bandwidth mid week to take on all these interesting talking points that you two have brought up, in addition others like @Chrebetfan80 and @derp

basically i'm still trying to see what you're seeing. I see a possession guy who lacks NFL athleticism. He doesn't do anything particular well, and I don't see how he survives on the outside. He's not "bad" per say, he's got some moxy at the line and tracks the ball well enough... but the lack of NFL speed and such really shows up on the outside. That game your posted RedLichtie vs Auburn was concerning how little he got going on anything again that wasn't a post -- and even when he did, DBs were able to erase and separation almost too quickly. Those clips @win4ever, that was mostly on the DB, losing his footing, getting caught with his hips turned... lot of that is just poor technique on their inside/outside shade. Bateman's getting like 5 yard cushion on some of that. 

I'll keep trying

Apologies for the following longwinded thoughts......

All good and legitimate stuff in this thread, here’s the thing though.....I don’t disagree with much, if not all, of what you are pointing out here but I guess this comes down to some subtlety in what we are looking for or at........and ultimately what expectation is and how to project how a player transitions into the NFL.

So much of scouting, in any sport, is about educated guesswork and informed hunches. there are so many intangible traits that are so tough to project.

How much does the player want it?....how much do the little things overcome the deficiencies? There’s a reason why, every year, prospects confound our best guesses....guys we love fail miserably, players we just don’t see it with turn into beasts....the skill(or luck) is in working out who’s who, and it’s not just as simple as having ‘NFL speed’ or ‘NFL athleticism’ ....and then on top of that there’s situation, the player landing in the right spot, with the right system, the right coach, the right QB...all can make a huge difference.

Incidentally there’s a wider conversation to be had elsewhere as to just what is NFL speed or athleticism?...it’s entirely subjective and totally unmeasurable. You can, up to a point,  measure functional strength on a bench press, explosion with a vertical, short area quickness and agility with a 3 cone and long speed with a 40...none of which we can judge Bateman fairly at this point off his tape.

I still see a much better ‘athlete’ than he’s getting credit for, he has decent quick feet, good size and importantly the hands appear reliable, and he gets open...somehow, despite his noted deficiencies....And when he accelerates away he goes.

I think there’s also a wider discussion here about the search for perfection in a prospect. We’re all looking for that guy who’s 6’ and more, 200+ runs 4.4 and produced heavily against SEC level talent and is only 20....those guys are rare, and don’t always pan out. We all want Julio Jones, but there’s a reason he went top 5.

I know you are savvy enough to get this and I know you are smart enough to understand the rarity in finding such a prospect so the next best thing is find the guy who does something exceptional, the phenomenal deep threat who averages 24 ypc (I’m thinking Eskridge here btw, and thanks for introducing him to me...love him as a prospect but again he may be a one trick pony....pretty good one trick admmittedly) or the big body that might not be a burner but uses his physicality to his advantage.

I think the difference between us here is that you might be more fixed on what Bateman can’t do and I’m looking more at what I think he can do, and how that’s still a useful tool to have in the box...nothing wrong with your approach at all either, but that does leave open the possibility that you dismiss a prospect that goes on to confound you(the same principal applies to my approach too incidentally).

Back to your point above about only seeing a possession guy. Well that’s not the worst thing. We need a possession guy!!....a WR group is a collective and constantly evolving. Your slot WR might be on the final year of his contract (as Crowder is) so looking ahead we could do with a potential replacement. You don’t think he survives on the outside, again, the NFL is full of guys who thrive despite being told what they can’t do. Brian Poole doesn’t survive as an outside corner but he’s been a pretty effective operator as a career slot guy. What did you see when you scouted Jamison Crowder coming out? An undersized and slow guy who doesn’t do anything particularly well who has no chance of surviving on the outside?....he’s 5-9 and ran a 4.56....he shouldn’t be in the league

Alshon Jeffrey was being overtaken by offensive tackles at the combine, Keenan Allen ran that 4.7(even healthy I doubt he ran much better), Jerricho Cotchery was what?...a 4.6 guy? ....how about Allen Robinso and his 4.6......none of these guys necessarily ticked that ‘NFL athleticism’ box but all confounded the critics and made the team that drafted them very happy and crucially, all were productive as hell in college. I still think that productivity trumps a lot of things but acknowledge it’s far from the the only criteria.

I also say you stand accused of tainting Bateman because of your disdain for Tyler Johnson?....not an unfair position at all bearing in mind their similarities but they are very different prospects and let’s not have an autopsy on TJ just yet....how do you plead?

I’m totally willing to accept I'm wrong here ....so many young WR’s struggle once they reach the NFL, although interestingly I think it’s often those high athleticism, perfect prospects rather than the overlooked guys with obvious flaws, who disappoint, the Breshad Perrimans of the world are a bigger risk of failure IMO than the likes of Allen or, dare I say it, Bateman......and Minnesota does seem to run a system that boosts production while not necessarily teaching out technique glitches. 

So in summary, I hear you and I appreciate your concerns with him. I guess it all comes down to how we address the position in FA and how the draft falls for us in Rd 1 & 2......I still think he is good value in the mid to late 3rd depending on how he tests but if a guy like Eskridge or Elijah Moore is available at that point too I can totally buy into taking them over Bateman but I think we should think long and hard before dismissing a guy with good size and deceptive speed who has good hands, gets open, is coachable and can be very effective working the middle and intermediate routes.

just finally, and only for context, here’s some of Keenan Allen at Cal....I loved him coming out as I’m sure many of us did....gutted we passed on him(really liked Marvin Jones too btw).

I’ll leave without comment but would be interested if anyone sees, in all honesty and not using hindsight goggles, a prospect that absolutely jumps off the screen with A+ speed, athleticism, ability to operate outside etc etc....indeed there’s even a couple of drops there.

 

[Chrebetfan80]

8 hours ago, Paradis said:

Purdue was better. Still a gauntlet of slants and posts. He’s probably better than I give him credit for but to select Bateman, I’d have to comfortable knowing that he may never be more than inside possession guy. I doubt he’ll still be available when I as a GM would start to stare at this name on my board. 

There are just too many other prospects in this draft that are a better fit for this offense than Bateman to waste a lot of time on him.  I could rattle off a list of names I feel better about in different parts of the draft, especially since Bateman probably goes higher than I would like to draft him.

 

I think he's better that his film this year showed, thats just based on watching some of last years where I saw a more explosive player.  But end of the day there are a lot of guys I like in this draft, and he's just one im So-So on. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

I think the big problem for me with Bateman is risk and projectability. If you are considering him at 23 or 34 for us, I have reservations because it looks like he's going to need to have significant uptraining required and as fans, it's almost impossible for us to know about his work ethic and aptitude for learning. If we're talking round 3 or 4 where you look past some of the flaws? Sure, sign me up. But based where I am seeing him mocked, he's long gone.

[Chrebetfan80]

looking through a lot of films today during my prep periods and this is a really nice class of WR's coming out. 

I think some here have brought up good points on what we are looking for in WR's going forward for this offense @redlichtie talked about looking at speed, or athleticism rather for the position.  I think of course it could go both ways.  SF has seemed to like more athleticism at the position, preferred YAC Wr's like Deebo, and Aiuyk.  While Lafluers brother in GB has taller long speed Wr's (outside of Adams who can do it all).  So it will be a fascinating draft in that regard as to the direction of talent we look to acquire.  

This year I have focused most of my time on a few guys that I seem to really like in terms of route running ability, toughness, perceived fit, and flexibility.  I'll list them in hopes of furthering the discussion, as this is what this forum is great for.  I talk football all day in clinics and workshops with coaches from all over the country so coming here to get more specialized jets football talk is fantastic. 

 

Guys I like so far:

Kadarius Toney

Terrance Marshall

Rondale Moore

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Sage Surratt

Jaelon Darden

Amari Rodgers (was inconsistent to me at the senior bowl, but there are things to work with there)

Ihmir Smith-Marsette

Cornell Powell (untapped potential and better route runner than people talk about)

Demetric Felton (could make the case he was the best route runner at the senior bowl, and his release moves were +)

 

Those guys have had my attention so far but I'm more than open to look at more guys, and to offer any thoughts i have on these players. 

@Paradis  already knows my darden crush I've had all year. I was talking about him very early on. 

 

[Chrebetfan80]

14 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I think the big problem for me with Bateman is risk and projectability. If you are considering him at 23 or 34 for us, I have reservations because it looks like he's going to need to have significant uptraining required and as fans, it's almost impossible for us to know about his work ethic and aptitude for learning. If we're talking round 3 or 4 where you look past some of the flaws? Sure, sign me up. But based where I am seeing him mocked, he's long gone.

This is the crucial point of the conversation I believe.  I think we all like the prospect to some extent, but i think we're all in agreement not anywhere near rounds 1-2 

[PepPep]

So I know he had a DWI, which may have completely taken him off JD's board, but I am really intrigued with Ihmir Smith-Marsette.

I mean, here's a local Jersey kid with great size, strength, speed, athleticism and HANDS who was used in a variety of ways at Iowa and produced. He was used as a returner, a deep threat, a gadget guy, an outside receiver. And he's probably going to be around later on in the draft- Rd. 4 maybe? His biggest drawback is probably route running and ability to create that immediate separation that NFL teams love to see. So yeah, far from an elite WR prospect. But man, I could see this guy being a real weapon in the right offense with an accurate QB who's able to throw his receivers open.  

[Paradis]

too much work and too many kids yet i still have time to entertain myself