Adam Schefter: Jets Seem "Inclined To Move On" From Darnold

[slats]

9 hours ago, football guy said:

1. After the coaches go through these intense sessions of evaluating Wilson and Darnold and give their opinions, the front office will then (and is/has) listen to offers for Darnold and for the #2 pick, followed by making one or the other outright available. They will (and have) chart out both scenarios and simulate/mock outcomes. If they feel QB Darnold + #2 trade value is greater than QB #2 + Darnold trade value, he'll stick. If they feel QB #2 (say Wilson) + Darnold trade value is greater, then he gone. It's complex but simple at the same time 

This is what I've been saying since the Jets locked into the #2 pick. They have a variety of options, all of them with pros and cons, and they're going to be as deliberate and precise as they can be before pulling the trigger. As fans it's fun to speculate, but only JD knows what kind of offers he's actually getting for the #2 and Darnold, we can only speculate (as well as their internal evaluations of Darnold). 

The most critical evaluation for them will be the QBs available in the draft. If they believe Wilson and/or Fields has franchise QB potential and will be a good fit on their team and what they're trying to do - they'll take the QB there. It's a no brainer in that situation with a young QB on a rookie deal, with a four year window to build around him before he gets paid. If they don't really love either guy and conclude that Darnold still has more potential than either of them, that's where you get into territory that will piss off a lot of fans. 

In either situation, they're going to need a capable veteran QB on the roster as a backup. It's important either way, but probably more critical if they decide to stick with Darnold. In that scenario, if Sam simply isn't getting it they'll need a guy they can turn to to keep the program afloat. With a rookie, the growing pains will be more acceptable to fans and a Brunell/McCown type backup will suffice. If when the league year opens there've been no trades for Darnold or the #2 yet, the veteran QBs they pursue might tip their hand as to which way they're leaning. 

[section314]

19 minutes ago, slats said:

This is what I've been saying since the Jets locked into the #2 pick. They have a variety of options, all of them with pros and cons, and they're going to be as deliberate and precise as they can be before pulling the trigger. As fans it's fun to speculate, but only JD knows what kind of offers he's actually getting for the #2 and Darnold, we can only speculate (as well as their internal evaluations of Darnold). 

The most critical evaluation for them will be the QBs available in the draft. If they believe Wilson and/or Fields has franchise QB potential and will be a good fit on their team and what they're trying to do - they'll take the QB there. It's a no brainer in that situation with a young QB on a rookie deal, with a four year window to build around him before he gets paid. If they don't really love either guy and conclude that Darnold still has more potential than either of them, that's where you get into territory that will piss off a lot of fans. 

In either situation, they're going to need a capable veteran QB on the roster as a backup. It's important either way, but probably more critical if they decide to stick with Darnold. In that scenario, if Sam simply isn't getting it they'll need a guy they can turn to to keep the program afloat. With a rookie, the growing pains will be more acceptable to fans and a Brunell/McCown type backup will suffice. If when the league year opens there've been no trades for Darnold or the #2 yet, the veteran QBs they pursue might tip their hand as to which way they're leaning. 

Conceding that TL goes #1, what if the QB they like best isn't Wilson or Fields? Do you risk a small trade down, or just pull the trigger?

[Charlie Brown]

16 minutes ago, section314 said:

Conceding that TL goes #1, what if the QB they like best isn't Wilson or Fields? Do you risk a small trade down, or just pull the trigger?

This is my play....

Keep Sam Darnold; trade down a few slots and draft Trey Lance and let him sit.  Darnold leaps great, if not you have a QB that you can develop.  

[section314]

1 minute ago, Charlie Brown said:

This is my play....

Keep Sam Darnold; trade down a few slots and draft Trey Lance and let him sit.  Darnold leaps great, if not you have a QB that you can develop.  

That may be in play. I still think that Miami will go QB at #3 if they can't get Watson, so that would bother me a bit.

[Charlie Brown]

1 minute ago, section314 said:

That may be in play. I still think that Miami will go QB at #3 if they can't get Watson, so that would bother me a bit.

I think that in that scenario that Miami goes Wilson or Fields only if that is the case, because they would have to think that those guys are WAAAAAY better than who they have.....

Miami is not, I think,  just going to walk away from Tua after just getting him last year when they knew he was coming off an injury.

But IMO absent me being in love with Wilson or Fields the modest trade down is the way I would go.....

[batman10023]

15 hours ago, football guy said:

If Darnold is traded, it's most likely to be heavier on 2022 pick value. A 2021 third- plus a conditional 2022 second- is not out of the question. 

isn't this a downgrade from what folks were talking about before?  late first early 2nd?

[football guy]

3 minutes ago, batman10023 said:

isn't this a downgrade from what folks were talking about before?  late first early 2nd?

All comes down to value and market. Late first value is what people think they would want. No one knows for sure because the Jets haven’t told anyone what they would want or made any counteroffers

[32EBoozer]

4 minutes ago, football guy said:

All comes down to value and market. Late first value is what people think they would want. No one knows for sure because the Jets haven’t told anyone what they would want or made any counteroffers

Nice to see you back!

[Columbia Jet Fan]

14 hours ago, football guy said:

1. He sees a QB with all the requisite skills, mentality, and toughness to be a top notch QB, but has been tarnished by a lack of coaching and supporting cast. He's not scouting Darnold the way the average fan would. He's looking for the potential... throws like the one Darnold made to Berrios at the end of the game against Kyle's 49ers early last season. 
2. He's cheaper, younger, more athletic, and more coachable than Garoppolo. The upside is higher, and the beautiful part about Shanahan's scheme is that the QBs floor/ability to produce is still extremely high even with training wheels on. See Nick Mullens. What Darnold has is the ability to make plays off-script that most QBs can't make. 
3. They do see that same potential. The coaching staff is asking themselves if Zach Wilson also has that similar level of potential, and if they determine that he does, they'll turn to the front office and give their perspective. Mike Shanahan has been involved, and he's spoken to Wilson directly. I understand there's some posturing with Kyle's 49ers potentially needing/wanting the same players but it's my understanding that Mike Shanahan doesn't see through that lens... he's very willing to help those he's come to know. After the coaches go through these intense sessions of evaluating Wilson and Darnold and give their opinions, the front office will then (and is/has) listen to offers for Darnold and for the #2 pick, followed by making one or the other outright available. They will (and have) chart out both scenarios and simulate/mock outcomes. If they feel QB Darnold + #2 trade value is greater than QB #2 + Darnold trade value, he'll stick. If they feel QB #2 (say Wilson) + Darnold trade value is greater, then he gone. It's complex but simple at the same time 

Seems pretty fn logical to me. 

I notice you don't mention Fields at all - are you convinced if they stay at 2 Wilson is the pick?

[C Mart]

17 minutes ago, football guy said:

All comes down to value and market. Late first value is what people think they would want. No one knows for sure because the Jets haven’t told anyone what they would want or made any counteroffers

Have the Jets made their internal decision yet? 

[long time suffering Jets f]

10 minutes ago, football guy said:

All comes down to value and market. Late first value is what people think they would want. No one knows for sure because the Jets haven’t told anyone what they would want or made any counteroffers

JD holding his cards close to the vest. I can’t make heads or tails what his intentions are. If I had to take a guess he’s patiently waiting for a team to get desperate to get the most value from Darnold.

[jetstream23]

15 hours ago, football guy said:

1. He sees a QB with all the requisite skills, mentality, and toughness to be a top notch QB, but has been tarnished by a lack of coaching and supporting cast. He's not scouting Darnold the way the average fan would. He's looking for the potential... throws like the one Darnold made to Berrios at the end of the game against Kyle's 49ers early last season. 
2. He's cheaper, younger, more athletic, and more coachable than Garoppolo. The upside is higher, and the beautiful part about Shanahan's scheme is that the QBs floor/ability to produce is still extremely high even with training wheels on. See Nick Mullens. What Darnold has is the ability to make plays off-script that most QBs can't make. 
3. They do see that same potential. The coaching staff is asking themselves if Zach Wilson also has that similar level of potential, and if they determine that he does, they'll turn to the front office and give their perspective. Mike Shanahan has been involved, and he's spoken to Wilson directly. I understand there's some posturing with Kyle's 49ers potentially needing/wanting the same players but it's my understanding that Mike Shanahan doesn't see through that lens... he's very willing to help those he's come to know. After the coaches go through these intense sessions of evaluating Wilson and Darnold and give their opinions, the front office will then (and is/has) listen to offers for Darnold and for the #2 pick, followed by making one or the other outright available. They will (and have) chart out both scenarios and simulate/mock outcomes. If they feel QB Darnold + #2 trade value is greater than QB #2 + Darnold trade value, he'll stick. If they feel QB #2 (say Wilson) + Darnold trade value is greater, then he gone. It's complex but simple at the same time 

Great post.

I think it all comes down to the internal evaluation/projection of Wilson in the system vs. Darnold in the system.  If it's essentially a push, and Jets evaluators see the same kind of potential for each guy then I think they retain Darnold and try to unlock the value of that #2 by trading down.  If they think Wilson's potential in this system is better than Darnold's by more than just a negligible amount then I think they "stick and pick" at #2, taking Wilson and then trying to monetize Darnold in a trade for all they can.  The additional benefit being that Wilson starts the clock back at Day 1 on a rookie contract for the next 4/5 years.

Just like the Eagles in their trade of Wentz, there will very likely be a pretty cut and dry way to evaluate the trade in 2 years.  If Wentz (Darnold) goes to another team and succeeds while Hurts (Wilson) flops then we know the calculus was bad.

[football guy]

32 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Seems pretty fn logical to me. 

I notice you don't mention Fields at all - are you convinced if they stay at 2 Wilson is the pick?

I think if they stay at #2 and draft Wilson if they trade Sam

32 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Have the Jets made their internal decision yet? 

Status is pretty much the same. Jets view Sam highly. They haven't looked at things like recent performance through the same lens us fans do. They realize there's no analogous player/situation to compare Darnold to, good or bad. They like him a lot and feel he still has everything needed to be a good-if-not-elite QB. Wilson's reps feel the Jets like him a lot. Question is what is the market for #2, what is the market for Sam. As much as fans want to believe in absolutes and feel the Jets need to make a definitive decision one way or another, I get no sense the Jets are looking at this that way. I think they embrace the flexibility. 

30 minutes ago, long time suffering Jets f said:

JD holding his cards close to the vest. I can’t make heads or tails what his intentions are. If I had to take a guess he’s patiently waiting for a team to get desperate to get the most value from Darnold.

Don't take this the wrong way, but he's really not holding his cards too close. He's actually been very transparent. He doesn't have the reputation of being a phony or trying to artificially pump up a player's value the way Howie tried. People are so anxious to know exactly what the plan is, but the plan is in motion. If the coaches/scouts finish their evaluations and say, "you know what, we really like Darnold but this kid Wilson is really off the charts... that's the direction we should go", then they'll start returning phone calls on Darnold. They haven't done that yet. If they come away liking both (I think this is most likely), they'll make it known they're listening to offers for both. That will lead to the media speculation hitting overdrive, with guys saying "they're trading Darnold... you don't listen to offers for your QB if you're planning on keeping him", but I don't buy any of that. Darnold is not the type to get disgruntled, and he understands this is a process. I'm sure he's not a huge fan of uncertainty but he understands. 

There are 3 scenarios, with the very unlikely possibility of pursuing Watson somewhat looming in the mix:

1. If there's a massive market for #2, but they only get average offers for Darnold, I think they trade #2 and keep Darnold.
2. If they don't get the market they want for #2 and get first-round value for Sam, I think they trade Sam.
3. If they get blown away for both or are underwhelmed by the market for both... decision time. 

 

End of the day I think the Jets make a deal with Carolina, whether it's for #2 or for Sam

[derp]

7 minutes ago, football guy said:

End of the day I think the Jets make a deal with Carolina, whether it's for #2 or for Sam

I know you previously pointed to something like 3 + conditional 2 being most likely compensation.

You think there’s any chance of 23 + Sam for 8? If it’s QB at 2 feel like that’s the best way to get a blue chip offensive position guy and the QB.

[football guy]

1 minute ago, derp said:

I know you previously pointed to something like 3 + conditional 2 being most likely compensation.

You think there’s any chance of 23 + Sam for 8? If it’s QB at 2 feel like that’s the best way to get a blue chip offensive position guy and the QB.

I'm not sure if there's a chance of it but it seems like something both sides should at least discuss. Jets are sniffing around a lot of positional players who could be available in that 8-12 range (Pitts, Waddle)

[Jets Voice of Reason]

14 minutes ago, football guy said:

I'm not sure if there's a chance of it but it seems like something both sides should at least discuss. Jets are sniffing around a lot of positional players who could be available in that 8-12 range (Pitts, Waddle)

I know you mentioned Waddle previously, but Pitts I'm happy to hear about as well. Any interest in Chase or Smith as well? If they do end up trading down within the top 10, I'd personally at least want a top receiving threat.

[football guy]

2 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

I know you mentioned Waddle previously, but Pitts I'm happy to hear about as well. Any interest in Chase or Smith as well? If they do end up trading down within the top 10, I'd personally at least want a top receiving threat.

I know for sure the Jets have shown a lot of interest in Pitts, Waddle, and Chase (although I haven't heard if they spoke to him yet). They're also high on Toney. I haven't heard anything about Smith. 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

16 minutes ago, football guy said:

I know for sure the Jets have shown a lot of interest in Pitts, Waddle, and Chase (although I haven't heard if they spoke to him yet). They're also high on Toney. I haven't heard anything about Smith. 

Soooo safe to say they're looking to go offense with the first pick huh.

[Patriot Killa]

56 minutes ago, football guy said:

I think if they stay at #2 and draft Wilson if they trade Sam

Status is pretty much the same. Jets view Sam highly. They haven't looked at things like recent performance through the same lens us fans do. They realize there's no analogous player/situation to compare Darnold to, good or bad. They like him a lot and feel he still has everything needed to be a good-if-not-elite QB. Wilson's reps feel the Jets like him a lot. Question is what is the market for #2, what is the market for Sam. As much as fans want to believe in absolutes and feel the Jets need to make a definitive decision one way or another, I get no sense the Jets are looking at this that way. I think they embrace the flexibility. 

Don't take this the wrong way, but he's really not holding his cards too close. He's actually been very transparent. He doesn't have the reputation of being a phony or trying to artificially pump up a player's value the way Howie tried. People are so anxious to know exactly what the plan is, but the plan is in motion. If the coaches/scouts finish their evaluations and say, "you know what, we really like Darnold but this kid Wilson is really off the charts... that's the direction we should go", then they'll start returning phone calls on Darnold. They haven't done that yet. If they come away liking both (I think this is most likely), they'll make it known they're listening to offers for both. That will lead to the media speculation hitting overdrive, with guys saying "they're trading Darnold... you don't listen to offers for your QB if you're planning on keeping him", but I don't buy any of that. Darnold is not the type to get disgruntled, and he understands this is a process. I'm sure he's not a huge fan of uncertainty but he understands. 

There are 3 scenarios, with the very unlikely possibility of pursuing Watson somewhat looming in the mix:

1. If there's a massive market for #2, but they only get average offers for Darnold, I think they trade #2 and keep Darnold.
2. If they don't get the market they want for #2 and get first-round value for Sam, I think they trade Sam.
3. If they get blown away for both or are underwhelmed by the market for both... decision time. 

 

End of the day I think the Jets make a deal with Carolina, whether it's for #2 or for Sam

Good insight

[FidelioJet]

3 hours ago, football guy said:

All comes down to value and market. Late first value is what people think they would want. No one knows for sure because the Jets haven’t told anyone what they would want or made any counteroffers

Great job today.  

You nailed the Eagles trade.  I mean your source was right on anyway.  It ended up being the Eagles instead of the Jets but I'm sure that was the conversation they were having with both teams.

No one can really argue if you have legit sources anymore.  I mean you almost hit the exact trade.  Good stuff!

Keep 'em coming.

[MykePM]

19 hours ago, football guy said:

If Darnold is traded, it's most likely to be heavier on 2022 pick value. A 2021 third- plus a conditional 2022 second- is not out of the question. 

The fact that this is the exact package that the Colts paid for Wentz (and may have discussed with the Jets for Darnold?) only adds to your credibility.  Glad to have you back.

[Jet Blast]

5 hours ago, football guy said:

All comes down to value and market. Late first value is what people think they would want. No one knows for sure because the Jets haven’t told anyone what they would want or made any counteroffers

Exactly right..

Regardless of asking price, like anything else for sale, true value is only what someone is willing to pay for it. No more. No less.

[Mark78]

My sources say that we are trading Darnold...but that is only if we decide not to keep him

[batman10023]

6 hours ago, football guy said:

I think if they stay at #2 and draft Wilson if they trade Sam

Status is pretty much the same. Jets view Sam highly. They haven't looked at things like recent performance through the same lens us fans do. They realize there's no analogous player/situation to compare Darnold to, good or bad. They like him a lot and feel he still has everything needed to be a good-if-not-elite QB. Wilson's reps feel the Jets like him a lot. Question is what is the market for #2, what is the market for Sam. As much as fans want to believe in absolutes and feel the Jets need to make a definitive decision one way or another, I get no sense the Jets are looking at this that way. I think they embrace the flexibility. 

Don't take this the wrong way, but he's really not holding his cards too close. He's actually been very transparent. He doesn't have the reputation of being a phony or trying to artificially pump up a player's value the way Howie tried. People are so anxious to know exactly what the plan is, but the plan is in motion. If the coaches/scouts finish their evaluations and say, "you know what, we really like Darnold but this kid Wilson is really off the charts... that's the direction we should go", then they'll start returning phone calls on Darnold. They haven't done that yet. If they come away liking both (I think this is most likely), they'll make it known they're listening to offers for both. That will lead to the media speculation hitting overdrive, with guys saying "they're trading Darnold... you don't listen to offers for your QB if you're planning on keeping him", but I don't buy any of that. Darnold is not the type to get disgruntled, and he understands this is a process. I'm sure he's not a huge fan of uncertainty but he understands. 

There are 3 scenarios, with the very unlikely possibility of pursuing Watson somewhat looming in the mix:

1. If there's a massive market for #2, but they only get average offers for Darnold, I think they trade #2 and keep Darnold.
2. If they don't get the market they want for #2 and get first-round value for Sam, I think they trade Sam.
3. If they get blown away for both or are underwhelmed by the market for both... decision time. 

 

End of the day I think the Jets make a deal with Carolina, whether it's for #2 or for Sam

Darnold has to know this was going to be the case after his year. 

[ZachEY]

On 2/18/2021 at 1:59 AM, Philc1 said:

A guy with horrible coaching and supporting cast?

Darnold’s 63.1 PFF grade since 2018 ranks dead last among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Even when isolating for clean-pocket dropbacks in an attempt to mitigate some of the poor pass protection he’s had, his 76.2 passing grade without pressure sits ahead of only Mitchell Trubisky among qualifiers. 

[Philc1]

On 2/18/2021 at 8:36 PM, C Mart said:

Have the Jets made their internal decision yet? 

Hopefully no

[vic]

To keep bad-mouthing Sam saying he is garbage and only worth a fifth rounder doesn’t do us any good. Coming out of college he was regarded as a superstar by many teams. He has been horribly mismanaged by the Jets, but is young and still with the right coaching a talented QB. Except for Lawrence none of the other Qbs are definite upgrades. JD is too smart to just give him away.


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

[bitonti]

On 2/19/2021 at 6:31 AM, TeddEY said:

Darnold’s 63.1 PFF grade since 2018 ranks dead last among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Even when isolating for clean-pocket dropbacks in an attempt to mitigate some of the poor pass protection he’s had, his 76.2 passing grade without pressure sits ahead of only Mitchell Trubisky among qualifiers. 

Mitchell trubisky is the human example of why taking a QB at 2 is dumb 

 

[ZachEY]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

Mitchell trubisky is the human example of why taking a QB at 2 is dumb 

 

I shouldn’t, but sure, let me indulge whatever ridiculous train of logic that had you arrive at this particular conclusion...

Ok, Bit, why is that?

[genot]

On 2/18/2021 at 4:56 PM, football guy said:

I know for sure the Jets have shown a lot of interest in Pitts, Waddle, and Chase (although I haven't heard if they spoke to him yet). They're also high on Toney. I haven't heard anything about Smith. 

Love your posts. Glad your hear today. Full throttle. Question: What's the word on specific players in FA, that we plan on making a full court press on. Any info?. Thanks.

[Philc1]

40 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I shouldn’t, but sure, let me indulge whatever ridiculous train of logic that had you arrive at this particular conclusion...

Ok, Bit, why is that?

Because Trubisky was a not great prospect that a team reached for at 2 simply because he was a qb

 

Just like with the 2 clowns now that are being hyped as “must draft qbs” for the jets

 

[Dinamite]

4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Because Trubisky was a not great prospect that a team reached for at 2 simply because he was a qb

 

Just like with the 2 clowns now that are being hyped as “must draft qbs” for the jets

 

Fields was consensus number 2 pick in several early mocks before the season and after the draft last year (see example below).   He is far from trubisky and was even considered better than Lawrence at one point given their performances the year prior.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/08/04/touchdown-wires-way-too-early-2021-mock-draft/

[football guy]

2 hours ago, genot said:

Love your posts. Glad your hear today. Full throttle. Question: What's the word on specific players in FA, that we plan on making a full court press on. Any info?. Thanks.

Thanks dude- Matt Milano is a player the media hasn't mentioned but the Jets have him high on their board

[RutgersJetFan]

6 hours ago, bitonti said:

Mitchell trubisky is the human example of why taking a QB at 2 is dumb 

 

Are there non-human examples of players not being good? 

[pointman]

7 hours ago, bitonti said:

Mitchell trubisky is the human example of why taking a QB at 2 is dumb 

 

Mitch Trubisky is the human example of why taking Mitch Trubisky at 2 is dumb. Nothing more.