QB Classmen: Justin Fields (Rotoworld)

[win4ever]

Ohio State QB Justin Fields

Distance (Usage Rate) Left Outside Left Middle Right Middle Right Outside Total

20+ (16.07%) 11/19 (6 TD, 1 INT) 7/10 (4 TD, 2 INT) 8/10 (3 TD) 5/15 (2 TD, 1 INT) 31/54 (15 TD, 4 INT)

16-20 (5.36%) 4/6 3/3 1/2 5/7 (1 TD, 1 INT) 13/18 (1 TD, 1 INT)

11-15 (15.48%) 3/9 (1 TD) 9/10 (1 TD) 13/15 (3 TD, 1 INT) 16/18 (2 TD, 1 INT) 41/52 (7 TD, 2 INT)

6-10 (21.73%) 20/24 (2 TD) 6/6 (1 TD) 13/16 (1 TD) 20/27 (1 TD, 2 INT) 59/73 (5 TD, 2 INT)

1-5 (25.30%) 15/16 12/17 17/21 26/31 (1 TD) 70/85 (1 TD)

0 (13.39%) 8/8 11/12 11/11 14/14 44/45

Total 61/82 (9 TD, 1 INT) 48/58 (6 TD, 2 INT) 63/75 (7 TD, 1 INT) 86/112 (7 TD, 5 INT) 258/327 (29 TD, 9 INT)

Games Charted: Michigan State (2019), Penn State (2019), Wisconsin (2019), Clemson (2019), all 2020 games

 

CHARTING EXTRAS

 

Blatant Drops: 18

 

Forced Adjustments: 20 (5.95%)

 

Contested Drops: 15

 

Passes Defended: 25

 

Explosive: 42 (12.50%)

 

Throwaways: 9

 

Justin Fields’ target area chart shows a passer who did not need throws gifted to him. Just 13.39% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage, which would have been lower than every 2020 quarterback except for Joe Burrow.

 

Fields substituted those free throws behind the line of scrimmage for standard quick game concepts from shotgun. In fact, Fields’ 21.73% target rate to the 6-10 yard area is higher than every 2020 QB, coming in about six percentage points higher than last year’s class average. Outs, curls, and slants — all of which are timing-based routes in the 6-10 yard area that want to be thrown right off the top of the drop back — are right in Fields’ wheelhouse as a sharp, accurate passer.

 

While being a high-volume passer to that area is not necessarily sexy, it’s encouraging to see an offense give freedom to their QB to throw those concepts instead of the easier, lower-ceiling screens and RPOs (run-pass options), especially when Fields’ target rates to every section beyond 10 yards is right around average. He was not really skimping out on tougher throws; he was just throwing fewer of the easiest concepts in the playbook.

 

The other number of note here is Fields’ blatant drop rate. At just over 5%, Fields dealt with blatant drops at about 2% of a higher clip than last year’s average. His 5.28% clip would have been worse than everyone in last year’s class besides Jacob Eason, whose receivers at Washington were notorious for the dropsies. To be clear, the Ohio State receiving corps was clearly better than Washington’s and got open far more often, but Fields was putting almost every throw on the money and was let down by his teammates a bit more often than the average QB.

 

ACCURACY AND ENVIRONMENT

 

Adjusted Accuracy: 83.18%

 

Outside the Pocket Percentage: 22.62%

 

Adjusted Accuracy Outside the Pocket: 71.45%

 

Under Pressure Percentage: 21.73%

 

Adjusted Accuracy Under Pressure: 66.44%

 

Most Common Personnel Package: 11 personnel (49.40%)

 

Shotgun Percentage: 94.64%

 

Empty Formations Frequency: 9.23%

 

Play-Action / RPO Percentage: 34.52%

 

Play-Action Adjusted Accuracy: 83.71%

 

Designed Rollout Frequency: 13.69%

 

Let’s get right to it: Fields’ 83.18% adjusted accuracy is the best I have ever recorded since I started with the 2016 class. That’s only about six years of data, but it’s still an impressive feat given some of the QBs to come out during that period. For reference, Joe Burrow (78.43%), Dwayne Haskins (77.17%), Baker Mayfield (76.53%), and Kyler Murray (74.68%) made up the top four previously. Fields beating out three first-overall picks and another first-round pick ain’t too shabby.

 

 

The accuracy checks out with the film, too. Fields’ ball placement is as thoughtful and precise as I’ve seen from any QB prospect ever. Though he may not fit a ball through a keyhole the way other elite QBs can, Fields consistently enables easy YAC, shields WRs from hits over the middle, and helps hide the ball from DBs with careful ball placement. As the numbers echo, Fields is as accurate as they come.

 

 

In turn, Fields’ accuracy numbers in all situational splits is pretty stellar. Outside the pocket, play-action, under pressure — you name it, Fields was hitting those throws. Fields’ accuracy under pressure is the most interesting figure, though.

 

 

Just perusing scouting reports or the NFL Draft community or wherever, a common criticism of Fields is his malfunction versus pressure. While it’s true Fields opens himself up to more pressure than he should by holding onto the ball too long (as evidenced by his high pressure rate), Fields is still tough as nails when the pocket breaks down and does a fantastic job shedding tacklers. Fields is not afraid to stare down the barrel of a gun to get the ball off, nor is he incapable of taking off to look for (safe) plays outside the pocket. He’s going to take more sacks in the NFL than you’d like, but he’s got the toughness and arm talent to throw well under pressure.

 

Another noteworthy piece of Fields’ profile is his percentage of plays from empty. While 9.23% is not out of this world, it’s still above average relative to last year’s class and would have slotted him in at third. Playing from empty is not some end-all, be-all answer sheet to how smart a QB is, but to me, an offense putting faith in their QB to operate from five-man protection with five players in the pattern immediately is a sign that said QB has a good idea as to what they are doing. Burrow led last year’s group at 16.72%, and it’s pretty fair to say Burrow was as sharp as QB prospects come.

 

PASS RUSH

 

Avg. Number of Pass Rushers: 4.45

 

Three or Fewer Pass Rushers Frequency: 5.95%

 

Four Pass Rushers Frequency: 51.49%

 

Five Pass Rushers Frequency: 35.12%

 

Six or More Pass Rushers Frequency: 7.44%

 

If anything stands out for Fields, it’s how low his rate of three-man rushes was. At just 5.95%, Fields was hit with three-man rushes about one-third as often as the 2020 class average. While that could come down to a few things, part of it may just be that Big Ten teams do not prefer to play that way. Fields also had average-to-below average targets rates in the two shortest areas of the field, so defenses may have felt less inclined to flood those areas with defenders in drop-eight coverages. It could also be that teams did not want to waste chances at attacking Fields’ propensity to hold the ball, meaning they always wanted to at least rush the standard four.

 

SITUATIONAL

 

3rd/4th Down Adjusted Accuracy: 75.95%

 

3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate: 60.81%

 

4th Quarter/Overtime Adjusted Accuracy: 81.75%

 

Red Zone Adjusted Accuracy: 70.77%

 

Fields was bonkers on 3rd/4th down. Sometimes quarterbacks will have middling accuracy while still converting often; or have very high accuracy with a middling conversion rate that doesn’t line up. Not Fields. Holding a nearly 76% adjusted accuracy rating while also converting about 61% of the time suggests Fields was constantly attacking the sticks, finding the right targets, and throwing accurate balls. Granted, he did throw three picks on 74 such attempts, which is quite high, but that’s the tradeoff for being a QB who rightfully attacks the sticks as often as Fields.

 

As for the fourth quarter stuff, Fields, like most QBs at elite schools, kind of gets to cheat the system. It’s not that Fields never played tough situations late in the game or that he played poorly in them, it’s just that about half of Fields’ fourth quarter production is from games Ohio State already had wrapped up handily because, well, they are Ohio State. The same was true of Tua Tagovailoa last year. To be clear, Fields did still play well in close games, he just probably has a bit more fluff production here than others. Nothing to be worried about, just something to keep in mind compared to his peers.

 

 

Lastly, Fields’ red zone production is about on par with everything else. Ohio State felt comfortable letting Fields throw any number of different concepts in the red zone and were not fixated on forcing the run game to finish off drives. Even with all the tight windows, Fields still hit on over 70% of his passes. Fields can get a bit reckless in the red zone and put the ball in danger, but it’s his same aggression that allows him to thread tight red zone windows that many other QBs would not even dare. It’s a risk-reward you live with when a QB is as good as Fields.

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/qb-klassroom/quantifying-quarterbacks-justin-fields

[win4ever]

Can someone edit to QB Klassroom. Typo


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[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, win4ever said:

Can someone edit to QB Klassroom. Typo


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

You can edit it yourself. 

Edit post. 

[win4ever]

You can edit it yourself. 
Edit post. 

Won't let me, I'm on the app, says I'm not logged in.

[genot]

Just read your post. Lets have drinks later.

[Embrace the Suck]

[Paradis]

[Paradis]

I can't believe when JN is provided with the level of insight to attack/support their outlandish diatribes.... you got 2 replies not counting JW12 fodder.

Yet if you say "I like fields".....  "ooooooooooooooooooooooly faaaaaaaaaaaack, bruh"

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Really solid breakdown and is a big reason for me why he’s my top draft option. Wish there was more reps involved, but he’s a super accurate passer and i’d rather roll the dice on him learning how to be a qb over Banking on Darnold miraculously turning it around any day. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

8 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I can't believe when JN is provided with the level of insight to attack/support their outlandish diatribes.... you got 2 replies not counting JW12 fodder.

Yet if you say "I like fields".....  "ooooooooooooooooooooooly faaaaaaaaaaaack, bruh"

A lot of is single game perception outriding everything. If he sat out the championship game and ended his college career after that Clemson game, how many people would feel different about taking him at 2? 

[Bronx]

I'm not reading all this, what is the bottom line?

5 hours ago, win4ever said:

It’s a risk-reward

Winston Jr.

 

[greengeek]

Nice article. Is the same level of analysis available for Wilson? These stats seem difficult to match.

[King P]

Excellent breakdown. I'm still very high in Fields and would love to draft him. But I doubt that's happening so it is what it is  

5 minutes ago, Bronx said:

I'm not reading all this, what is the bottom line?

Winston Jr.

 

Lol they're nothing alike

[HawkeyeJet]

This was a great read.  Thank you.  I've long been a Fields proponent.  If they are picking a QB at 2, I want it to be him.

I'm not a film grinder, but I watch a lot of football and especially Big 10.  This breakdown is they very smart version of what I thought I saw.  Super accurate, offense not based on gimme throws or as "simple" as some say . I keep hearing how great Wilson would be in a "Shannahan" offense.  To me, the QB in this class that is the ideal for for that is Fields, not Wilson.

[maury77]

His accuracy up to 10 yards, his proficiency with timing routes and his mobility seem to be very good matches for a west coast offense. 

[Stark]

Nice find. I was on the Fields bandwagon before and this just solidifies it more. If we don’t trade for Watson and don’t trade the 2nd pick. Fields should be the choice. 
 

[Dinamite]

57 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Really solid breakdown and is a big reason for me why he’s my top draft option. Wish there was more reps involved, but he’s a super accurate passer and i’d rather roll the dice on him learning how to be a qb over Banking on Darnold miraculously turning it around any day. 

I also wish he had even more reps/games like Trevor Lawrence does.  People tend to forget (or ignore) that in his second year Trevor had a bit of a decline, before bouncing back this year.   Justin is in a similar path and just did his second year of actual playing time.  I think he has a bright future and trajectory and hopefully the jets think so too.

[Greenbloodblitz]

Good read! Fields is the guy that I saw coming here months ago.

He's got a bad attitude and a gun... I like that. Welcome to New York

[Beerfish]

his 11-15 accuracy is good other than one of the areas. 

This and the 16-20 yard area are for me the money maker distances for Qbs.

Many guys can throw short, many can toss it up deep.  The 'make a 1st down yardage is critical for success.

[greengeek]

Deshaun who?

[nyjbuddy]

1 hour ago, Stark said:

Nice find. I was on the Fields bandwagon before and this just solidifies it more. If we don’t trade for Watson and don’t trade the 2nd pick. Fields should be the choice. 
 

I am coming around on Fields and prefer him to Wilson.  As of right now, I agree its trade for Watson, or trade down from two.  If those first two don't happen then take Fields.

[ljr]

looks like you have some very good info there

i need time to prepare myself before actually reading it 

 

... but these type of posts are on of the really great things about coming here

[win4ever]

4 hours ago, Paradis said:

I can't believe when JN is provided with the level of insight to attack/support their outlandish diatribes.... you got 2 replies not counting JW12 fodder.

Yet if you say "I like fields".....  "ooooooooooooooooooooooly faaaaaaaaaaaack, bruh"

Lol, I posted the SF offense video series from a guy that broke it down with like an hour's worth of film.  My idea was to get discussion on that one, and then relate it to Fields, but apparently no one watched it.  

3 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Really solid breakdown and is a big reason for me why he’s my top draft option. Wish there was more reps involved, but he’s a super accurate passer and i’d rather roll the dice on him learning how to be a qb over Banking on Darnold miraculously turning it around any day. 

He's my No, 2 guy for sure right now, and I don't think the difference between him and Lawrence is all that big.  He's very accurate, and he has a very good arm to attack down the field.  Usually you have mobile QBs have trouble with accuracy down the field (Lamar Jackson/Pre-2020 Josh Allen) but he's very accurate down the field.  I think it's why a guy like Russel Wilson is a stud because you can't defend both the short scrambling ability and the deep passing routes without gambling.  If they ever invested in the OL, Wilson would be so much more dangerous.

3 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

A lot of is single game perception outriding everything. If he sat out the championship game and ended his college career after that Clemson game, how many people would feel different about taking him at 2? 

I agree, if he sat out the championship game with the injury, most people would still remember the great game.  

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/qb-klassroom-ohio-state-qb-justin-fields-1

That's the breakdown of Fields from the Alabama game, stating it wasn't really horrible.  The perplexing aspect was that he wasn't accurate in the short game, but we don't know how much the rib injury played into it.  

3 hours ago, greengeek said:

Nice article. Is the same level of analysis available for Wilson? These stats seem difficult to match.

There isn't one right now, but I would presume one is on the way.  

Here is one for Trey Lance:  They aren't big fans.

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/quantifying-quarterbacks-trey-lance

I would presume one will show up for Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Trask, etc.

https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/article/qb-klassroom/quantifying-quarterbacks-lsu-qb-joe-burrow

That is the one from Joe Burrow last year, and the stats are very similar, if not favoring Fields a bit.  Now I think based on PFF tight window throws, Burrow showed better ability.   

 

3 hours ago, King P said:

Excellent breakdown. I'm still very high in Fields and would love to draft him. But I doubt that's happening so it is what it is  

Lol they're nothing alike

I think they do get Fields, because I think it's a great fit in the system.  As the video thread showed, that Shanahan system relies heavily on misdirection and accuracy.  Fields has accuracy is spades, and the added athleticism to be another factor in the misdirection game.   

3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

This was a great read.  Thank you.  I've long been a Fields proponent.  If they are picking a QB at 2, I want it to be him.

I'm not a film grinder, but I watch a lot of football and especially Big 10.  This breakdown is they very smart version of what I thought I saw.  Super accurate, offense not based on gimme throws or as "simple" as some say . I keep hearing how great Wilson would be in a "Shannahan" offense.  To me, the QB in this class that is the ideal for for that is Fields, not Wilson.

I completely agree, because I don't see the Shanahan system being the ideal fit for Wilson.  It'd be a good fit for Wilson, or any QB for that matter, because the system itself is designed to make easy reads for the QB.  However, the crux of the system lays with the wide zone running game, and how they mix everything to go with it, so 8 different plays look exactly the same at the onset, thus confusing teams.  I think McVay runs a similar system where they stay in very similar personnel, yet run a variety of plays from it.  

To me, having the added ability to scramble is a major plus for the running game, because they run a ton of motion to move defenders.  If you run a wide zone run to the right, with a WR in motion from left to right, with an athletic QB, the linebackers have to decide between three viable options there.  They run a bunch of boot passes as well, to which the QB's ability to run dictates a defender's decision.  You'll see Russel Wilson do this often, where he will find someone on the run because defenders tend to peel off to prevent the run.   

3 hours ago, maury77 said:

His accuracy up to 10 yards, his proficiency with timing routes and his mobility seem to be very good matches for a west coast offense. 

I think it'd be a major mistake to pass on him at 2. 

3 hours ago, Stark said:

Nice find. I was on the Fields bandwagon before and this just solidifies it more. If we don’t trade for Watson and don’t trade the 2nd pick. Fields should be the choice. 
 

I think Fields will be the choice at 2, I don't see how Wilson fits better into the offense.  

2 hours ago, Dinamite said:

I also wish he had even more reps/games like Trevor Lawrence does.  People tend to forget (or ignore) that in his second year Trevor had a bit of a decline, before bouncing back this year.   Justin is in a similar path and just did his second year of actual playing time.  I think he has a bright future and trajectory and hopefully the jets think so too.

I think the hard part of it is that a lot of people hate OSU QBs, but I think his talent transcends the team.  We'll see a bunch of "But that system" talk with Fields, but Lawrence ran a much easier system.  BYU ran basically a spread power system, that completely outmatched the competition level, yet everyone worries about Fields' adjustment to the NFL.

2 hours ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

Good read! Fields is the guy that I saw coming here months ago.

He's got a bad attitude and a gun... I like that. Welcome to New York

I think Fields is the easy choice at 2.  

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

his 11-15 accuracy is good other than one of the areas. 

This and the 16-20 yard area are for me the money maker distances for Qbs.

Many guys can throw short, many can toss it up deep.  The 'make a 1st down yardage is critical for success.

The stat that I found to be really interesting was that he attacked beyond the sticks on 3rd down,  This wasn't a 2 yard dump off to pad stats offense.  I think that was the big reason they struggled against Northwestern, who let their defenders do stunts to create pressure and drop back in coverage.  Essentially they took away the long passes, and dared OSU to beat them with short outlet passes.  It led to gaping holes in their run defense, but horrible choices for Fields.  

2 hours ago, greengeek said:

Deshaun who?

Lol, I love Deshaun and I would trade Fields for Deshaun easily because you always want the proven commodity.  However, I think it's completely wrong to mortgage the future by trading away like 4 first round picks for him (plus paying him) when great choices at QB exist at our pick.

1 hour ago, nyjbuddy said:

I am coming around on Fields and prefer him to Wilson.  As of right now, I agree its trade for Watson, or trade down from two.  If those first two don't happen then take Fields.

I think trading for Watson is still No, 1 option, but I value the No. 2 pick as basically 3 first round picks.  I'm not ok with it if it's basically every pick we have for 3 years type deal because Watson alone won't make us contenders.  

I wouldn't trade down though, because as much as Darnold fits, I think Fields fits better in the system, and I think having a dynamic runner adds another dimension to the offense.  

[win4ever]

34 minutes ago, ljr said:

looks like you have some very good info there

i need time to prepare myself before actually reading it 

 

... but these type of posts are on of the really great things about coming here

They will have one for each of the QBs, I usually like to read them for the accuracy numbers.  I'm very interested to read the Lawrence one.  

[Philc1]

The next great Ohio St QB in the NFL

[maury77]

I think trading for Watson is still No, 1 option, but I value the No. 2 pick as basically 3 first round picks.  I'm not ok with it if it's basically every pick we have for 3 years type deal because Watson alone won't make us contenders.  
I wouldn't trade down though, because as much as Darnold fits, I think Fields fits better in the system, and I think having a dynamic runner adds another dimension to the offense.  

Where is the post with the videos about the SF offense? I missed it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Larz]

How does he fit in with lafleurs offense?

ive read that he’s not a great match but Wilson and even darnold are

[JustInFudge]

Love that all these stats are starting to come out after I got abused during the Tank for Trevor hysteria for simply saying, pump the brakes, this Fields kid is unreal too and just might be the better passer of the Football.  Now all the stats and real analysis are happening.  Not the, he's never lost!!!  True Freshman Nat'y!  #1 recruit, #1 pick. blah blah blah nonesense for Stan that means nothing.  Break it down, what do they do well...Fields, throws the ball better and proof has been laid out, significantly.  

I'm on record, I want Fields at #2.  Which mean, it wont happen.

❤️ Jets

 

[Scott Dierking]

15 minutes ago, JiF said:

Love that all these stats are starting to come out after I got abused during the Tank for Trevor hysteria for simply saying, pump the brakes, this Fields kid is unreal too and just might be the better passer of the Football.  Now all the stats and real analysis are happening.  Not the, he's never lost!!!  True Freshman Nat'y!  #1 recruit, #1 pick. blah blah blah nonesense for Stan that means nothing.  Break it down, what do they do well...Fields, throws the ball better and proof has been laid out, significantly.  

I'm on record, I want Fields at #2.  Which mean, it wont happen.

❤️ Jets

 

Fields has a higher ceiling than Lawrence, but he also has a lower floor. That floor is because of experience and the kid still needs to learn. 

[neckdemon]

10 hours ago, Paradis said:

I can't believe when JN is provided with the level of insight to attack/support their outlandish diatribes.... you got 2 replies not counting JW12 fodder.

Yet if you say "I like fields".....  "ooooooooooooooooooooooly faaaaaaaaaaaack, bruh"

because this type of data analysis is not exactly exciting. it reminds me of being in a statistics class......boring af. in smaller doses it would be more easily digestable. besides that the lay-out of it is hard to keep track of.  most people are going to glaze over after trying to decipher that first chart and say fu*k it

[QB1]

But he doesn’t throw side arm check downs 

[section314]

8 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Fields has a higher ceiling than Lawrence, but he also has a lower floor. That floor is because of experience and the kid still needs to learn. 

Remember that great piece that @Mogglezput our right before Christmas? He was pretty clear, I believe, that if the Jets stick at #2 and go QB, it would be Fields. It was also around that time that JD was on Michael Kay and in response to a question about how important the combine, pro days are to their evaluations he said that pretty much all of the resume' on these guys was already done.

[JustInFudge]

14 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Fields has a higher ceiling than Lawrence, but he also has a lower floor. That floor is because of experience and the kid still needs to learn. 

Agreed...but it's not like he's only started a year.  It may have been abbreviated but 2 seasons as the starter at a major program and getting into the playoffs and a Nat'y, that's not experience to shake a stick at.  He's similar in experience to Burrow, just Burrow in that regard but he got a full season in his 2nd year, plus the playoffs, so he's got a handful more under him but at least it's not Trubisky, Haskins situation where you are really basing it off 1 year as a starter.

That said, if you read how I would handle this season, I would bring in a bridge QB, draft Fields and let him sit a year similar to Mahomes.

[predator_05]

6 minutes ago, section314 said:

Remember that great piece that @Mogglezput our right before Christmas? He was pretty clear, I believe, that if the Jets stick at #2 and go QB, it would be Fields. It was also around that time that JD was on Michael Kay and in response to a question about how important the combine, pro days are to their evaluations he said that pretty much all of the resume' on these guys was already done.

In these tumultuous times, when there's little to no distinction between private and public, when PR agencies are running amok on behalf of special interest groups... @Mogglez is the only man I trust. He will be our guiding light, and our most trusted informant. 

 

In in all seriousness, the more I watch of fields, the more I'm convinced that he's the right man for the jets. Least likely to bust, with an upside that is almost locked-in. 

[Scott Dierking]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Agreed...but it's not like he's only started a year.  It may have been abbreviated but 2 seasons as the starter at a major program and getting into the playoffs and a Nat'y, that's not experience to shake a stick at.  He's similar in experience to Burrow, just Burrow in that regard but he got a full season in his 2nd year, plus the playoffs, so he's got a handful more under him but at least it's not Trubisky, Haskins situation where you are really basing it off 1 year as a starter.

That said, if you read how I would handle this season, I would bring in a bridge QB, draft Fields and let him sit a year similar to Mahomes.

Yup. Someone is just going to have to be a little bit patient with Fields. But it will come. The Ryan Day offense is not overly simplistic, and Fields has shown the ability to assimilate that offense. There should be confidence that he can learn any offense. A moment will not be too big for him. He has proven that.