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Best/Worst Case for Jets in 2021


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5 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I think the school matters when it's a smaller school facing less elite competition.  That, to me, is a different point than saying the school hasn't produced star QBs in the past.  

How quote was "you're evaluating the prospect, not the school"

That's all I'm saying.  

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13 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Isn't that exactly what you're doing with Wilson?

Huh?  I didn't say anything about Wilson, good or bad.  Sounds like you have me confused for someone else. 

I prefer Fields because of his QB traits, especially his athleticism, not because of Ohio State or BYU.  I don't think less of Wilson because of his school.  I think he's a fine prospect.  It's Fields, Wilson, then Lance for me.

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Wouldn't you rather trade Darnold so the Jets have added draft capital to build around Wilson?  If you're taking a QB at 2, it means the org doesn't believe in Darnold any longer.  So why hold onto him and then get nothing for him when he walks as a FA? 

Trade him, then sign one of the many veteran bridge options available to start Week 1.  Someone like Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton or even Ryan Fitzpatrick would do nicely.  

The only reason to keep Darnold is if the org still believes in Darnold as a long-term starter.  He makes zero sense as a bridge guy.  

Disagree.  Darnold is an experienced starter at a reasonable salary.  He's always been a good solider.  He's not a malcontent in any way.  There is really no reason why he can't be used as a bridge quarterback, and he comes with the upside of being young and having potential to improve in a new system.  The Chargers did it with Brees and Rivers.  The Ravens did it with Flacco and Jackson.

The Jets can absolutely use Darnold as a bridge to the rookie, who can be eased into action and not thrown into the fire.  If Darnold does reasonably well, he can walk in free agency, get a decent contract with another team, and fetch the Jets a comp pick.  If he lights it up, the Jets can look into keeping him long term and the rookie becomes a trade chip.

The only reason he doesn't make sense as a bridge quarterback is because of Jets fans bias against him.

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5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Huh?  I didn't say anything about Wilson, good or bad.  Sounds like you have me confused for someone else. 

I prefer Fields because of his QB traits, especially his athleticism, not because of Ohio State or BYU.  I don't think less of Wilson because of his school.  I think he's a fine prospect.  It's Fields, Wilson, then Lance for me.

My fault, I apologize. I think I must have had you in the Wilson terrible because his team was 11th in country and not in the top 2 crowd.  And couldn't agree more with you premise...not wanting Fields because he played for OSU is just downright silly.

btw.  I would be happy with Fields if that's what the Jets brass determine.  I just think Wilson's skill-set aligns very nicely with today's NFL.

 

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5 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Disagree.  Darnold is an experienced starter at a reasonable salary.  He's always been a good solider.  He's not a malcontent in any way.  There is really no reason why he can't be used a bridge quarterback, and he comes with the upside of being young and having potential to improve in a new system.

The Jets can absolutely use Darnold as a bridge to the rookie, who can be eased into action and not thrown into the fire.  If Darnold does reasonably well, he can walk in free agency, get a decent contract with another team, and fetch the Jets a comp pick.  If he lights it up, the Jets can look into keeping him long term and the rookie becomes a trade chip.

The only reason he doesn't make sense as a bridge quarterback is because of Jets fans bias against him.

You don't pass on a 1st round pick for a bridge QB. 

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13 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Disagree.  Darnold is an experienced starter at a reasonable salary.  He's always been a good solider.  He's not a malcontent in any way.  There is really no reason why he can't be used as a bridge quarterback, and he comes with the upside of being young and having potential to improve in a new system.  The Chargers did it with Brees and Rivers.  The Ravens did it with Flacco and Jackson.

The Jets can absolutely use Darnold as a bridge to the rookie, who can be eased into action and not thrown into the fire.  If Darnold does reasonably well, he can walk in free agency, get a decent contract with another team, and fetch the Jets a comp pick.  If he lights it up, the Jets can look into keeping him long term and the rookie becomes a trade chip.

The only reason he doesn't make sense as a bridge quarterback is because of Jets fans bias against him.

 

None of these reasons are good enough supersede the draft capital we could get for him in a trade, which we would sacrifice by keeping him around another year.  He's not a bridge guy.  He's either your long-term starter or someone you trade.  The financial argument doesn't make sense either, because this is the last year he'd be cheap.  One year of cheap QB play as a bridge is worth, say, the late 2nd round pick you might be able to get for him in a trade?  Maybe even a 1st, if some rumors are true?  No chance.  I don't care how much of a "good soldier" he is.  Lots of good soldiers get traded in this league.  Its a business.  Not a charity.  

The "upside" argument is over.  Done.  This is year 4.  His "upside" is he's either "the guy" or he's not.  And I'll lean on the 3 years of data there that says he's decidedly NOT the guy.  This isn't the time to hedge our bets.  Either Douglas believes in Darnold long-term and keeps him, or doesn't, gets someone else, and looks to trade Darnold.

And the minute you draft a QB, he becomes your guy.  You're not going to draft a QB just to end up trading him in favor of Darnold.  That's not how any of this works.  You draft a QB so you have a young franchise guy on a team-controlled 5 year contract.  No team who does that then turns around and trades the rookie because they think they have someone better on the roster.  It doesn't happen, nor should it.  There are huge negative financial ramifications for trading a 1st round QB a year after you draft him, especially if he's an early 1st.

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8 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

Disagree.  Darnold is an experienced starter at a reasonable salary.  He's always been a good solider.  He's not a malcontent in any way.  There is really no reason why he can't be used as a bridge quarterback, and he comes with the upside of being young and having potential to improve in a new system.  The Chargers did it with Brees and Rivers.  The Ravens did it with Flacco and Jackson.

The Jets can absolutely use Darnold as a bridge to the rookie, who can be eased into action and not thrown into the fire.  If Darnold does reasonably well, he can walk in free agency, get a decent contract with another team, and fetch the Jets a comp pick.  If he lights it up, the Jets can look into keeping him long term and the rookie becomes a trade chip.

The only reason he doesn't make sense as a bridge quarterback is because of Jets fans bias against him.

Darnold being a good guy has nothing to do with that. If we assume Darnold's value is late first or 2nd round pick + low pick (which Mogglez confirmed was an offer on the table) that is infinitely more valuable than whatever Darnold brings to the table as a backup or bridge qb. You're talking about one year under a rookie contract. The Jets have to make a decision on his option shortly after the draft and if they draft a QB high, that's all she wrote with the 5th year option. What your suggesting doesn't make practical sense.

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30 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Seriously? Boise State he was 22-28, 360 yards, 3 TD's, 0 ints and a. 92.4 QBR in a 51-17 victory.  It's quite telling that you need to use that game as one of the reason to not draft him.

You want to say he had a bad day against CCU in their only loss of the year, sure it happens - but it was still a reasonable game - 19-30, 240 yards, 1td, 1int.  If that's your worst day in a 12 game season - you're doing something right.

He's as strong as an NFL prospect as we've seen in a long time.  You don't have to like him, but don't make up stuff to justify it.

People are trying to make it sound like BYU was some backwards programs.  They finished ranked 11th in the country.  

What did I make up?

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8 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You don't pass on a 1st round pick for a bridge QB. 

Or even a late 2nd.  Maybe you pass if the best you can get is a late 3rd, with the hopes that Darnold either ends up being "the guy" or nets a high comp pick.  But I wouldn't.  I'd take the late 3rd and run.

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8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

None of these reasons are good enough supersede the draft capital we could get for him in a trade, which we would sacrifice by keeping him around another year.  He's not a bridge guy.  He's either your long-term starter or someone you trade.  The financial argument doesn't make sense either, because this is the last year he'd be cheap.  One year of cheap QB play as a bridge is worth, say, the late 2nd round pick you might be able to get for him in a trade?  Maybe even a 1st, if some rumors are true?  No chance.  I don't care how much of a "good soldier" he is.  Lots of good soldiers get traded in this league.  Its a business.  Not a charity.  

The "upside" argument is over.  Done.  This is year 4.  His "upside" is he's either "the guy" or he's not.  And I'll lean on the 3 years of data there that says he's decidedly NOT the guy.  

If the Jets can get a first round pick for Darnold, then yes, pull the trigger and use the pick to build around Wilson.  If not, then keep him for his 4th and final season and let him play the role of bridge QB.  He will fetch a comp pick when he walks in free agency the following year.

I simply disagree with the notion that drafting a quarterback at #2 means the Jets MUST trade Darnold this offseason.  Personally, I think seeing how Darnold performs in a new system with some added weapons at a relatively low salary while a rookie is being groomed is the most responsible approach.

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34 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

It’d have been better if he didn’t complete them. If he threw the passes incomplete but a yard further away from the defender it’d be translatable to Sunday’s?

I think his 73.5% completion pct. was an anomaly, and when he faces legit pressure and is up against a legit pass defense you're going to see his "accuracy" regress to his norm which was 10% pts lower the year before (62.4%) when he threw 11 TDs and 9 INTs.

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6 minutes ago, DoubleDown said:

If the Jets can get a first round pick for Darnold, then yes, pull the trigger and use the pick to build around Wilson.  If not, then keep him for his 4th and final season and let him play the role of bridge QB.  He will fetch a comp pick when he walks in free agency the following year.

I simply disagree with the notion that drafting a quarterback at #2 means the Jets MUST trade Darnold this offseason.  Personally, I think seeing how Darnold performs in a new system with some added weapons while a rookie is being groomed is the most responsible approach.

 

A comp pick that would not exceed a late 3rd and would have to wait until 2023.

I'll take the 2021 pick, even if its a late 2nd or even a late 3rd.  Guaranteed capital that you wouldn't have to wait on for 2 years is the more responsible use of resources.

Giving up on that draft capital in the hopes you'll get something out of Darnold for 1 year just makes little sense to me.  Either he's your guy or he isn't.  If you're drafting a QB at 2, Darnold isn't your guy.  Simple as that.  That's way too heavy an investment at QB to justify hedging your bets.

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58 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

At least Winston would be entertaining.  Darnold is the most boring QB of all time.  Give me a reason to watch games in 2021, please.  If that means Winston, I'll take it.  Dude threw for over 5,000 yards and 33 TDs just 2 seasons ago.  Darnold can't even break 200 yards in a game.

stop making sensible arguments

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9 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Darnold being a good guy has nothing to do with that. If we assume Darnold's value is late first or 2nd round pick + low pick (which Mogglez confirmed was an offer on the table) that is infinitely more valuable than whatever Darnold brings to the table as a backup or bridge qb. You're talking about one year under a rookie contract. The Jets have to make a decision on his option shortly after the draft and if they draft a QB high, that's all she wrote with the 5th year option. What your suggesting doesn't make practical sense.

It all comes down to the trade compensation for Darnold.  If it's high, then yes, pull the trigger.  If it's low, then use him as a bridge quarterback while the rookie gets groomed.  There is nothing impractical about that.

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6 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I think his 73.5% completion pct. was an anomaly, and when he faces legit pressure and is up against a legit pass defense you're going to see his "accuracy" regress to his norm which was 10% pts lower the year before (62.4%) when he threw 11 TDs and 9 INTs.

Why can’t his norm be closer to 65.9% like his freshman year when he threw 12 TDs and 3 Ints? Why can’t he get better with more reps as a 20 year old than as an injured 19 year old coming off a surgery? 

Do you buy the validity that when under pressure Wilson put up the highest passing score of the top 5 QBs in the class? 

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

You were being ironic with that right?

Watching that video should make any reasonable person begin to drool over the potential of him being our QB.

He showed everything you want in an NFL QB on that video.

If you ignore the second half and only watch 5 throws in the first half, that’s pretty damning tape.

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1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

Zach Wilson played two ranked teams this last year (Coastal Carolina, Boise St.), in both games he demonstrated lazy play action (to the wrong/ non-player side), he struggled with accuracy under pressure, and had scared feet; causing him to take sacks.

He has a live arm, and cute dimples, but I question his accuracy.  He doesn’t throw to where only his receiver can get it. His “accurate” throws are within defender’s reach; that won’t fly on Sunday’s. 

Ahh I remember when they said that about Josh Allen.. 

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5 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Why can’t his norm be closer to 65.9% like his freshman year when he threw 12 TDs and 3 Ints? Why can’t he get better with more reps as a 20 year old than as an injured 19 year old coming off a surgery? 

Do you buy the validity that when under pressure Wilson put up the highest passing score of the top 5 QBs in the class? 

Maybe it will be, and maybe he will, who knows. 

Don't get me wrong, I see some of the highlight reel passes and I get it; kid has a live arm.  It's fun to watch him zing it 55 yards into a bread basket, inches away from the defenders hand.   

He just doesn't pass the eye test for me, and certainly wouldn't be someone I'd entrust the franchise with.  

And no, if you told me he's a leading passer under pressure I wouldn't believe it. 

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10 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

If you ignore the second half and only watch 5 throws in the first half, that’s pretty damning tape.

Exactly. His first half looks pretty similar to his 4 quarters against Coastal Carolina.  When Boise State starts unleashing all THREE of their pass rushers in the second half he put up much better numbers.

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14 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You were being ironic with that right?

Watching that video should make any reasonable person begin to drool over the potential of him being our QB.

He showed everything you want in an NFL QB on that video.

Would you consider yourself a "reasonable person"? lol

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17 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

If you ignore the second half and only watch 5 throws in the first half, that’s pretty damning tape.

You're joking too, right?

Maybe I'm misunderstand what you were saying. Watching Zach Wilson, from that video (the whole video) - you're telling me that was "Damning" 

Honestly, if that's what you're saying I am just truly confused by what y'all are watching.  

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3 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Exactly. His first half looks pretty similar to his 4 quarters against Coastal Carolina.  When Boise State starts unleashing all THREE of their pass rushers in the second half he put up much better numbers.

He was pretty good against Coastal Carolina. He was pressured on 40% of his drop backs in that game. There were 4 drops and a -20 yard pass in that game. Those aren’t his fault. Also his INT was an end of half Hail Mary. He took shots that game and almost pulled out the win. He also does have bouts of inaccuracy in him but 3 passes a game aren’t a trend especially compared to his success rate.

Wilson is the highest rated prospect under pressure amongst the top guys in the draft and he took less sacks when pressured than Fields and Lawrence. All of this according to PFF.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Seriously? Boise State he was 22-28, 360 yards, 3 TD's, 0 ints and a. 92.4 QBR in a 51-17 victory.  It's quite telling that you need to use that game as one of the reason to not draft him.

You want to say he had a bad day against CCU in their only loss of the year, sure it happens - but it was still a reasonable game - 19-30, 240 yards, 1td, 1int.  If that's your worst day in a 12 game season - you're doing something right.

He's as strong as an NFL prospect as we've seen in a long time.  You don't have to like him, but don't make up stuff to justify it.

People are trying to make it sound like BYU was some backwards programs.  They finished ranked 11th in the country.  

Yet on the flipside Fields get's crucified for this game against Indiana, which btw his team won

18 30 300 yds  60.0% 10.0 avg 2 td 3 int

  plus rushing stats

15 78 yds 5.2 avg  1 td 
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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

You're joking too, right?

Maybe I'm misunderstand what you were saying. Watching Zach Wilson, from that video (the whole video) - you're telling me that was "Damning" 

Honestly, if that's what you're saying I am just truly confused by what y'all are watching.  

Am I joking?

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13 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Exactly. His first half looks pretty similar to his 4 quarters against Coastal Carolina.  When Boise State starts unleashing all THREE of their pass rushers in the second half he put up much better numbers.

Forget about stats..

Just look at the throws. Those are NFL throw after NFL throw.  Back Shoulder, 30 yard balls-on-ropes, right on target to covered receivers,.  Redzone throws to spots only his guy (completely covered) can get to.

Honestly, I'm at the point where I'm glad we won those games, because I honestly believe he's going to be better than TL.

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1 minute ago, 56mehl56 said:

Yet on the flipside Fields get's crucified for this game against Indiana, which btw his team won

18 30 300 yds  60.0% 10.0 avg 2 td 3 int

  plus rushing stats

15 78 yds 5.2 avg  1 td 

His team kinda won that in spite of him. The Buckeyes defense was dominant in the first half and kept Penix from getting going. Wilson was the only reason his team had a chance in that game. His INT was a hail marry with no time left at the half. Also Wilson was victimized by drops and had a 5yard check down turn into a -20 yard pass play. 

I’m not saying it was a great performance by Wilson but it wasn’t as bad as the box score makes it seem. Fields was able to fall back onto his team’s talent while he figured it out that game. Indiana was also really good at defense this past year and that shouldn’t be discounted.

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5 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Yet on the flipside Fields get's crucified for this game against Indiana, which btw his team won

18 30 300 yds  60.0% 10.0 avg 2 td 3 int

  plus rushing stats

15 78 yds 5.2 avg  1 td 

I agree.  Fields shouldn't get crucified for a bad game.  We just saw what happened to Pat Mahomes.  Defense's try too - they can perform well too - even in today's open NCAA football.

Fields is a very good prospect - I just happen to believe Wilson is a better one.

 

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1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

He was pretty good against Coastal Carolina. He was pressured on 40% of his drop backs in that game. There were 4 drops and a -20 yard pass in that game. Those aren’t his fault. Also his INT was an end of half Hail Mary. He took shots that game and almost pulled out the win. He also does have bouts of inaccuracy in him but 3 passes a game aren’t a trend especially compared to his success rate.

Wilson is the highest rated prospect under pressure amongst the top guys in the draft and he took less sacks when pressured than Fields and Lawrence. All of this according to PFF.

Oh, I didn't like his Coastal Carolina tape at all.  I don't fault the INT, like you said that was a situational thing -- hail mary.  Prior to that, he was bouncing passes, missing high, play-action to empty backfield, running scared.  I saw a lot of 'bad Sam' in that game and don't want another deer in headlights QB.  A lot of these guys are good (really good) until they get punched in the mouth.  That's why I'm on board with broken ribs McFields; he uses crutches to get to the line, then tosses dimes. 

I could see Zach Wilson hitting a Kirk Cousins ceiling and having a couple "You like that?!" games every now and then.  I could also see him a perennial IR guy who is better on the peloton than he is on the field.  

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11 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Forget about stats..

Just look at the throws. Those are NFL throw after NFL throw.  Back Shoulder, 30 yard balls-on-ropes, right on target to covered receivers,.  Redzone throws to spots only his guy (completely covered) can get to.

Honestly, I'm at the point where I'm glad we won those games, because I honestly believe he's going to be better than TL.

Truth is, none of these guys are that exciting.  They all have upside, and they all have a foreseeable route to busting. 

Zach Wilson is Drew Lock with a Kirk Cousins ceiling. 

Justin Fields is Dak Prescott if you take away Ezekiel.

Trey Lance is a young Colin Kaepernick, maybe... it's been a while. 

Trevor Lawrence is a winner.  What happens when he loses two in a row? Does he go Vince Young nuts, or settle in as a rich man's Mariotta?

Sam Darnold is a skirmish Tony Romo with a permanent pee spot. 

 

Surround any of these guys with a solid OL and weaponz and they can lead you to the playoffs.  Neglect the roster and you can picture any one of them wearing plain clothes on the sideline. 

 

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