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Best/Worst Case for Jets in 2021


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17 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Oh, I didn't like his Coastal Carolina tape at all.  I don't fault the INT, like you said that was a situational thing -- hail mary.  Prior to that, he was bouncing passes, missing high, play-action to empty backfield, running scared.  I saw a lot of 'bad Sam' in that game and don't want another deer in headlights QB.  A lot of these guys are good (really good) until they get punched in the mouth.  That's why I'm on board with broken ribs McFields; he uses crutches to get to the line, then tosses dimes. 

I could see Zach Wilson hitting a Kirk Cousins ceiling and having a couple "You like that?!" games every now and then.  I could also see him a perennial IR guy who is better on the peloton than he is on the field.  

He tosses dimes until the next game where he looks like crap, the injury thing a bit overblown. I loved that Clemson game for Fields but it shouldn’t be overvalued just like his negative tape shouldn’t overrule his good tape. 

Wilson threw 5 inaccurate passes that game. It wasn’t a top notch game but with only 3 days of game prep, a cross country trip and against a top defense in college football it was pretty good.

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https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-best-case-worst-case-scenarios-for-all-32-nfl-teams Statistically it’s interesting how black and white this situation is. 

Zach Wilson played two ranked teams this last year (Coastal Carolina, Boise St.), in both games he demonstrated lazy play action (to the wrong/ non-player side), he struggled with accuracy under press

Zach Wilson: Throws most completed passes into tight coverage in college football You: he’s not accurate enough to throw away from defenders in tight coverage  interesting 

6 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Truth is, none of these guys are that exciting.  They all have upside, and they all have a foreseeable route to busting. 

Zach Wilson is Drew Lock with a Kirk Cousins ceiling. 

Justin Fields is Dak Prescott if you take away Ezekiel.

Trey Lance is a young Colin Kaepernick, maybe... it's been a while. 

Trevor Lawrence is a winner.  What happens when he loses two in a row? Does he go Vince Young nuts, or settle in as a rich man's Mariotta?

Sam Darnold is a skirmish Tony Romo with a permanent pee spot. 

 

Surround any of these guys with a solid OL and weaponz and they can lead you to the playoffs.  Neglect the roster and you can picture any one of them wearing plain clothes on the sideline. 

 

I am curious - but who would you say was a prospect that was "exciting" that didn't "have a foreseeable route to busting"

I mean that honestly, not sarcastically.  I'm curious if you're just conservative when you look at college QB's or are there people you thought didn't have Kirk Cousins as a ceiling

(I mean Wilson and Cousins are completely different QB's- just seems like an easy way to explain away great numbers)

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Am I the only one that would be perfectly okay with Wilson or Fields and sees the great athleticism and ceiling in both of them? Even Lance to a lesser extent excites me. 

The biggest thing for our evaluation is going to be meeting with these guys. If one of them blows away the whiteboard, the workouts, and shows high character/passion you take that guy. Even if it's Trey Lance.

I've read that work ethic and passion are two of the most important things for a player in development. Even if the QB may be a raw talent, if they have drive and perseverance they tend to get there

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20 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I am curious - but who would you say was a prospect that was "exciting" that didn't "have a foreseeable route to busting"

I mean that honestly, not sarcastically.  I'm curious if you're just conservative when you look at college QB's or are there people you thought didn't have Kirk Cousins as a ceiling

(I mean Wilson and Cousins are completely different QB's- just seems like an easy way to explain away great numbers)

Safest (in order): Lawrence, Fields 

Highest upside/Boom (in order): Lance, Lawrence, Wilson, Fields 

Bust factor: Wilson, Lance, Fields/Lawrence

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47 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

His team kinda won that in spite of him. The Buckeyes defense was dominant in the first half and kept Penix from getting going. Wilson was the only reason his team had a chance in that game. His INT was a hail marry with no time left at the half. Also Wilson was victimized by drops and had a 5yard check down turn into a -20 yard pass play. 

I’m not saying it was a great performance by Wilson but it wasn’t as bad as the box score makes it seem. Fields was able to fall back onto his team’s talent while he figured it out that game. Indiana was also really good at defense this past year and that shouldn’t be discounted.

He accounted for almost 400 yds of offense 378 to be exact and 4 td's and the team kinda won in spite of him ?  And as you said against a top 20 defense in Indiana. I get it people don't like Fields but he's held to different standards than both Wilson and Trevor. 

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49 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I agree.  Fields shouldn't get crucified for a bad game.  We just saw what happened to Pat Mahomes.  Defense's try too - they can perform well too - even in today's open NCAA football.

Fields is a very good prospect - I just happen to believe Wilson is a better one.

 

I obviously believe Fields is the much better prospect, but as I've said before if the Jets staff feel Wilson is the right pick at #2 I'm all for it. Just as long as we don't try and reinvent the wheel with Sammy. 

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35 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

He tosses dimes until the next game where he looks like crap, the injury thing a bit overblown. I loved that Clemson game for Fields but it shouldn’t be overvalued just like his negative tape shouldn’t overrule his good tape. 

Wilson threw 5 inaccurate passes that game. It wasn’t a top notch game but with only 3 days of game prep, a cross country trip and against a top defense in college football it was pretty good.

Tbh i'm not sure who the short prep benefitted more in that situation. IMO its easier to build an offensive game plan based on what you normally do . On defense there's not enough time to get the full tendencies of the opponent. I'd give my advantage to the Offenses in this case. 

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2 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Those completed passes in the FBS Independent Conference, are PDs or INTs on Sunday’s. 

You could make a similar case for those big 12 defenses, and many people did when evaluating Mahomes record setting production....that and the fact Texas Tech QB’s are a product of their systems and so on and so forth ...if your point were true only SEC QB’s would start in the NFL....and it also fails to acknowledge that playing against ‘trash’ means you are also playing WITH ‘trash’ .....his OL and WR’s are not troubling any NFL scouts anytime soon 

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1 hour ago, DoubleDown said:

It all comes down to the trade compensation for Darnold.  If it's high, then yes, pull the trigger.  If it's low, then use him as a bridge quarterback while the rookie gets groomed.  There is nothing impractical about that.

Agree.

If no Watson, draft Fields.

If the offers for Sam are low, then let Sam "bridge" our rookie.  It's the only way, other than a time machine, to increase Sam's trade value.

Bonus:  Top ten pick next year.

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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Very close to what I'd say:

 

Best case:  Deshaun Watson

Acceptable:  Rookie QB drafted in 1st round, and/or veteran/bridge option (such as Jameis Winston)

Worst case (fire Douglas):  Darnold as unquestioned 2021 starter

BS

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5 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

You could make a similar case for those big 12 defenses, and many people did when evaluating Mahomes record setting production....that and the fact Texas Tech QB’s are a product of their systems and so on and so forth ...if your point were true only SEC QB’s would start in the NFL....and it also fails to acknowledge that playing against ‘trash’ means you are also playing WITH ‘trash’ .....his OL and WR’s are not troubling any NFL scouts anytime soon 

Oh, I was talking about Zach Wilson’s specific passes. 

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Best case scenario:

The Jets acquire Deshaun Watson for some sort of REASONABLE compensation and are able to still build their team afterwards.

Next best:

(And quite possibly the very best scenario) The Jets keep Sammy and trade down out of 2, picking up a kings ransom, and then KILLING the draft. In other words, a rapidly improving supporting cast giving Sammy what he needs.

Worst case scenario:

Jets trade Sammy and relying on picking a total mystery at 2. Thereby, LOSING all of the equity in the number 2 pick.

What most of you millennium are too foolish to figure out is, it doesn't %&$#ing matter what QB you put behind Center, NO ONE is going to be successful with the Jets current supporting cast... NO ONE....

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2 hours ago, 56mehl56 said:

He accounted for almost 400 yds of offense 378 to be exact and 4 td's and the team kinda won in spite of him ?  And as you said against a top 20 defense in Indiana. I get it people don't like Fields but he's held to different standards than both Wilson and Trevor. 

Nah. It was just a situation where if the Ohio State defense doesn’t hold after Fields throws interceptions then that game goes a different way. Indiana scored 0 points off of Fields Ints. That’s the defense doing great in spite of Fields. 

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7 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Unpopular opinion.  In three years, we’re going to look back on this class and wonder how we didn’t “see it.”

1. Trey Lance/Justin Fields 

3. Trevor Lawrence

4. Sam Darnold 

5. Zach Wilson 

I actually think this is very true.  It would basically repeat what has happened over the last four years.  The superior athletes as QB ended up doing well as NFL QBs.   Lance and Fields doing well would fit into the Watson/Mahomes/Jackson/Allen pattern.  

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8 hours ago, Grandy said:

Am I the only one that would be perfectly okay with Wilson or Fields and sees the great athleticism and ceiling in both of them? Even Lance to a lesser extent excites me. 

The biggest thing for our evaluation is going to be meeting with these guys. If one of them blows away the whiteboard, the workouts, and shows high character/passion you take that guy. Even if it's Trey Lance.

I've read that work ethic and passion are two of the most important things for a player in development. Even if the QB may be a raw talent, if they have drive and perseverance they tend to get there

Yes, I could get behind and excited about any of those 3 prospects.  The top criteria for who I can support as the Jets starting QB in 2021:  Is his name Sam Darnold?  If not, I can support it.

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3 hours ago, varjet said:

I actually think this is very true.  It would basically repeat what has happened over the last four years.  The superior athletes as QB ended up doing well as NFL QBs.   Lance and Fields doing well would fit into the Watson/Mahomes/Jackson/Allen pattern.  

I think there's a path to Lance being the best QB of the lot 5 years down the road. I do not think it happens with the Jets.

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