Stat Based NFL Comps: Zach Wilson vs Justin Fields

[Shockwave]

Two Mocks/Perspectives came out yesterday that had Justin Fields as the QB #4 in this class. One by Mcshay and one by Tannebaum. Just about everyone has Zach Wilson at number 2 locked in. The responses by Fields fans are that he is not getting a fair shake in this. He is being overlooked and not getting compared to the other QB's on a level playing field. 

So let's do that. 

Note: The below two diagrams are QB's high percentile rankings. Their 90th percentile projections. What does that mean? It means if they are placed in an offense that is more friendly to QB's. Which statistics have to shown to be offenses like the SF offense: Lots of playaction. Lots of Pre snap movement. 

 

First up Justin Fields. 

 

Note: his Baseline comps are Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz. That above comps are if he is in a friendly offense. So if he lives his best life your looking at Kirk Cousin, Jared Goff or Winston. But Baker Mayfield is in there. Does that excite anyone? 

 

Now Zach Wilson. 

 

 

So Zach Wilson's baseline comps are equal to the best version of Justin Fields (jared Goff/Cousins). Yet if Zach Wison gets put in the right offense his comps are Russell Wilson and Mahomes - yes, The Patrick Mahomes. Super Elite NFL QB in a QB friendly offense like SF. 

 

Thoughts: 

• The Gap between Zach Wilson and Justin Fields is really wide. It is not close. 
• Stats have shown offenses with motion and play action like the SF benefit QB's. Sucks for Darnold who had none of that.
• Keeping Sam and trading down is likely a much better plan than drafting Fields who's upside is Cousins, Goff or Winston. 
• When you see Video of Zach Wilson there are throws that remind you of Mahomes. Now there are statistics to back that up. 
• Zach Wilson is a better prospect than Joe Burrow statistically speaking just to give casual fans a reference point.  
• Zach's upside is definitely higher than Trevor Lawrence. 
• Did you know that Zach Wilson played in a similar offense to ours last year? Talk about the stars aligning. 

 

In a Perfect World:

Would you consider the group of Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Dak to be on par with Deshaun Watson? No. It's probably better. 

Bc if so in the perfect world you go and trade Sam Darnold. Then you simply take Zach Wilson and save yourself something in the range of 3-4 First round picks, Perhaps Quinnen Williams and something like 21m per year over the next 4 years. 

We now have the perfect offense to maximize a QB to their full potential. More importantly Zach Wilson played in this offense or something similar last year. Meaning his learning curve will be less and he's going to have a great chance to be good early on in his career. 

It is not going to be a popular take. But statistically we might be ALOT better staying where we are and simply taking Zach Wilson and keeping all those first round picks/Quinnen Williams. This is going to be an even less popular take: Zach Wilson's comparables have all had better years then Deshaun. Could Wilson be better than Deshaun? Looking at the stats there is a real possibility of it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[dcJet]

Nice geek.  

Where's this from?

[Lith]

Do you have a link to the full study, because I am confused by what is posted.  Fields is at 7.19 projected yards per attempt and 62.83 projected completion percent.  Wilson's numbers are 7.22 and 62.91%, respectively.  Which sounds pretty close, but the conclusion is the gap between Wilson and Fields is pretty wide. 

Is there something I am missing?

[peekskill68]

Even as a pro Sam guy, I would agree that drafting Wilson and resetting the QB clock is a more likely scenario IMO than JD making a big splash on Watson...

[Beerfish]

Most Qb theories I see start and end like this re the Jets.

- The MUST get a long term QB this year at any cost!  Either via trade or draft.

Why?  Well because there will never ever be a quality Qb available in the draft or via trade ever again!

I don't think that is that case.

Sign or trade for a mid grade QB and keep Sam Darnold.

Trade down from #2 where imo there is no clear cut franchise QB, both fields and wilson are great or bad or between depending on who you talk to and what stat line you look at.

Use the ton of draft capital you get for trading down to add a lot of good players this year and be set up with 3 or more 1st rounders next year to make a play for a QB.

I guarantee you this time next year we will be talking about 2 or 3 great franchise QBs available in the 2022 draft.

[Shockwave]

7 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Nice geek.  

Where's this from?

PFF

 

5 minutes ago, Lith said:

Do you have a link to the full study, because I am confused by what is posted.  Fields is at 7.19 projected yards per attempt and 62.83 projected completion percent.  Wilson's numbers are 7.22 and 62.91%, respectively.  Which sounds pretty close, but the conclusion is the gap between Wilson and Fields is pretty wide. 

Is there something I am missing?

Def more Stats and longer article on PFF site. Some if Free on the site and it’s discussed on their YouTube for free as well. 

[HawkeyeJet]

What is the source of this data?  Context would be helpful.

[BroadwayRay]

14 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I guarantee you this time next year we will be talking about 2 or 3 great franchise QBs available in the 2022 draft.

And what makes you think the Jets will have the ability to grab them?

[Adoni Beast]

Passing on Wilson would be a huge mistake for this team, which is pretty typical of us historically.

[derp]

I absolutely think Fields needs some refinement. Also think his talent is pretty obvious. Wilson’s is too. Both come with risks. Fields is the one getting nitpicked really hard right now.

I think kind of implied in this argument is that it’s a comparison of the two at the second overall pick. But the way Fields is getting analyzed right now it seems like he might slide a little. And I do think it’s more a choose your favorite but they’re close thing at two, to the point that the better player could easily be the guy who goes later. Which has happened in drafts...a lot.

Is anyone really going to be surprised when Fields goes around ten, give or take a few picks, then five years later he’s the best quarterback in the class and @JiF is saying I told you so? Because it’s starting to feel like that’s how it’s going to happen.

[kdels62]

19 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

What is the source of this data?  Context would be helpful.

It’s PFF. I saw the info in this article a while back and couldn’t really figure it out so I avoided it. I’m glad someone on this site was good enough to contextualize it. 

[Beerfish]

10 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

And what makes you think the Jets will have the ability to grab them?

3 or 4 first round picks.

The fact that history has shown you do not have to trade up to #1 to get the best QBs.

May also be able to trade for a QB next year.

[Paradis]

I swear to god, if Fields out plays Wilson in the NFL - I will never let you guys live it down. Ever. Daily razzing.

The lengths ppl are going to to undress Fields is unheard of. I thought Lamar had it bad (the guy the same studies said would eat Dick and Rosen would be amazing)... but now some Jack off from FCS who played 1 year and got smoked by central Arkansas - the only FBS team he played - is considered a better prospect? 

Complete Lunacy 

[DoubleDown]

52 minutes ago, Shockwave said:

It is not going to be a popular take. But statistically we might be ALOT better staying where we are and simply taking Zach Wilson and keeping all those first round picks/Quinnen Williams. This is going to be an even less popular take: Zach Wilson's comparables have all had better years then Deshaun. Could Wilson be better than Deshaun? Looking at the stats there is a real possibility of it. 

I've been saying this since the Watson rumors started.  When we look back in three to five years, it very well may be the case, and it may not even be close...

Zach Wilson + 2 first round picks + $100m in cap space > Deshaun Watson

If Wilson is the real deal, and Douglas uses his premium picks and cap space well, this team is going to be a force for the next decade.  If the Jets trade away multiple premium picks and half the team's cap space for one player, it's going to be an uphill battle to become a contender.  There are just way too many holes on this team.  They need an influx of high end talent at multiple positions.

[Augustiniak]

16 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Passing on Wilson would be a huge mistake for this team, which is pretty typical of us historically.

i agree and i think he'll be a plug and play starter with star potential.  i've said here many times that i love him and hope the jets don't over think this.

[addage]

Reminds me of all the arguments of Wentz vs Mariota.  Of course, both were locks for NFL stardom.

[BroadwayRay]

8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

3 or 4 first round picks.

The fact that history has shown you do not have to trade up to #1 to get the best QBs.

May also be able to trade for a QB next year.

What history has shown is that it's extremely hard to be in a position to draft a top QB prospect. Other than that, you have to win the lottery with a later pick. I hate lotteries. The Jets need to pick a QB at #2.

[Gangrene]

Below is Monson, who has loudly admitted to being wrong on Allen and is one the PFF guys who manage to annoy everyone including two of our favorite Jet Nation posters who rarely get annoyed about anything  @TomShane @Irish Jet 

PFF was way wrong on Josh Allen, and collectively though Baker Mayfield was the top qb in the 2018 draft.

I enjoy PFF stat geeking but their track record on qbs is far from infallible.

Don't take PFF's word on Wilson and Fields as gospel... 

(or Old Testament, Dead Sea scrolls or another religious book I can't mention for fear of having a fatwa issued)

 

[Charlie Brown]

3 hours ago, Paradis said:

I swear to god, if Fields out plays Wilson in the NFL - I will never let you guys live it down. Ever. Daily razzing. The lengths ppl are going to to undress Fields is unheard of. I thought Lamar had it bad (the guy the same studies said would eat Dick and Rosen would be amazing)... but now some Jack off from FCS who played 1 year and got smoked by central Arkansas - the only FBS team he played - is considered a better prospect? 

Complete Lunacy!!!!! 

Thank you!!

Fields played against some of the best college talent in the country Wilson complied his stats primarily this year against C level competition during a pandemic; which has to be taken into account as well. Wilson played poorly last year Poorly.... 

Indeed Fields stats line up well against Lawrence's, the idea that he is some crazy scrub and that Wilson already is superior in ANYWAY to Watson is utter Madness!!! 

[Shockwave]

20 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

It’s PFF. I saw the info in this article a while back and couldn’t really figure it out so I avoided it. I’m glad someone on this site was good enough to contextualize it. 

Yes.

They talk a lot about it as well for anyone that’s interested. 

 

 

[bitonti]

if we are going by PFF stats it would be negligent to pass on Penei Sewell, who recorded the highest offensive line grade in their history. Sewell's 2019 season scored higher than Quenton Nelson and Ryan Ramcyzk at 2 and 3. Sewell is also the only true sophomore Outland trophy in CFB history. It's fait to say Sewell's PFF grade is far more elite than Fields or Wilson's. I mean, if we are going by PFF grades as a be all and end all, right?

***

as for the stats above i.e. Wilson vs Fields, the fact that Fields' stats come against better competition has to count for something

it's like looking at GPA from someone who went to Public school 123 vs Bronx Science. 

[Shockwave]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

Thank you!!

Fields played against some of the best college talent in the country Wilson complied his stats primarily this year against C level competition during a pandemic has to be taken into account as well. Wilson played poorly last year Poorly.... 

Indeed Fields stats line up well against Lawrence's, the idea that he is some crazy scrub and that Wilson already is superior in ANYWAY to Watson is utter Madness!!! 

Fields is being mocked as the QB 4 in some places already. I’ve seen him behind Trey Lance in some places. I even saw a former NFL GM have him behind Mac Jones. Why?
 

Btw Fields and Wilson both graded higher then Lawrence this year. 

[bitonti]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

Indeed Fields stats line up well against Lawrence's

not only does Fields' stats line up to Lawrence, he beat Lawrence head to head on National TV in a heroic effort for the ages

Wilson's signature win was what exactly? the time he beat San Diego State? 

he's played no one and there's nothing he can do before the draft to change that 

everyone talks about film, how the Jets need to draft based on film 

but not all film is created equal 

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Do you have a link to the full study, because I am confused by what is posted.  Fields is at 7.19 projected yards per attempt and 62.83 projected completion percent.  Wilson's numbers are 7.22 and 62.91%, respectively.  Which sounds pretty close, but the conclusion is the gap between Wilson and Fields is pretty wide. 

Is there something I am missing?

Not at all.  This appears to be another case of "oh look, a squirrel....that means Wilson is going to be Joe Montana" syndrome that we are seeing in a large number of so-called 'expert sources' right now.  He might be, but the hype is possibly farther beyond the reality than I've ever seen for a QB prospect.  I'm surprised we haven't seen people pumping him to JAX over Trevor at this point.

But to your point, yeah, that difference is negligible.  Calling it 'wide' is mathematically inane.  OP didn't link the article so I'm not sure if PFF said it or he interpreted that.

[dbatesman]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if we are going by PFF stats it would be negligent to pass on Penei Sewell, who recorded the highest offensive line grade in their history. Sewell's 2019 season scored higher than Quenton Nelson and Ryan Ramcyzk at 2 and 3.

How was his 2020 season

[bitonti]

Just now, nycdan said:

 I'm surprised we haven't seen people pumping him to JAX over Trevor at this point.

 

the mocks haven't gone there but some on this board have predicted Wilson would be the better pro than Lawrence 

they are out there

 

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

the mocks haven't gone there but some on this board have predicted Wilson would be the better pro than Lawrence 

they are out there

 

His passes are so shiny... like beautiful, unicorn rainbows...

[Grandy]

18 minutes ago, Gangrene said:

Below is Monson, who has loudly admitted to being wrong on Allen and is one the PFF guys who manage to annoy everyone including two of our favorite Jet Nation posters who rarely get annoyed about anything  @TomShane @Irish Jet 

PFF was way wrong on Josh Allen, and collectively though Baker Mayfield was the top qb in the 2018 draft.

I enjoy PFF stat geeking but their track record on qbs is far from infallible.

Don't take PFF's word on Wilson and Fields as gospel... 

(or Old Testament, Dead Sea scrolls or another religious book I can't mention for fear of having a fatwa issued)

 

An important reminder that the so called "experts" are typically wrong as often as the average fan.

There are multiple posters on this board who I've seen make more accurate predictions and evaluations than a guy like McShay.

I enjoy some of what PFF does but my opinions are going to be decided by what I see, because I tend to be right as often as them anyway.

[mrcoops]

I'm still taking Fields, who complied his numbers against much better opposition than Wilson.

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

Do you have a link to the full study, because I am confused by what is posted.  Fields is at 7.19 projected yards per attempt and 62.83 projected completion percent.  Wilson's numbers are 7.22 and 62.91%, respectively.  Which sounds pretty close, but the conclusion is the gap between Wilson and Fields is pretty wide. 

Is there something I am missing?

Yes, you are missing a poster trying to extrapolate statistics to justify his preconceived preference of 1 prospect over another. 

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, maury77 said:

Yes, you are missing a poster trying to extrapolate statistics to justify his preconceived preference of 1 prospect over another. 

Indeed.  This should be mandatory reading for everyone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Quote

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.^[1] People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Confirmation bias cannot be eliminated entirely, but it can be managed, for example, by education and training in critical thinking skills.

 

[Adoni Beast]

40 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i agree and i think he'll be a plug and play starter with star potential.  i've said here many times that i love him and hope the jets don't over think this.

• He plays like Mahomes and Rogers.

• CLEARLY unreasonable to expect he ever ascends to their level.

• If he becomes half the player that they are, then its a win and a franchise quarterback for 12-15 years.

[maury77]

1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

What is the source of this data?  Context would be helpful.

Wilson has such great pocket presence, he could escape Alcartraz blindfolded. Some think Sean Connery's ghost from The Rock has inhabited Wilson's body and given him magical powers. 

[Beerfish]

1 hour ago, BroadwayRay said:

What history has shown is that it's extremely hard to be in a position to draft a top QB prospect. Other than that, you have to win the lottery with a later pick. I hate lotteries. The Jets need to pick a QB at #2.

So if blake bortles and blaine gabbert and mariota and goff and winston are sitting there you have to take them.

Hey if you are convinced that Fields or wilson are 100% Grade A QBs with very few if any faults then you take them.

Forcing up QB value due to need gets you a lot of pain.  And as we have seen the last few years with watson, mahommes, herbert.  You do not have to take a QB top 1 or 2 if the right guy is not there.

[bitonti]

26 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

How was his 2020 season

Same as Chase and Slater