Trading down from #2 -- what would that look like?

[Sperm Edwards]

2 minutes ago, derp said:

Is this in the context of the Watson conversations? 

Context of trading down vs using that pick on anyone else, either even-up or via a package.

Watson, another veteran QB, Sewell, Fields, Z.Wilson, Chase...

Doesn't matter really. 

[Greenseed4]

23 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

And that's my point. This year's draft is not going to return multiple 1sts this year, let alone 3 of them.

I feel like you started a thread just to make this point, and not to discuss what potential trade downs could yield. 

[JohnnyLV]

I understand those that want to trade down, but I just don't see us really doing anything other than choosing between Wilson and Fields. I suspect it will not be unanimous even within our FO. But if we were to decide that neither is the guy at #2 then the likelihood is that other teams do not think they are Top 2 either so the odds on trading out are diminished too. The only scenario I see us trading down is is Saleh (and has to be him) wants Sam as his QB. Otherwise the synergy of a new rookie QB under the rookie salary cap, new offensive system, new head coach and having our choice of QB at 2 is too compelling to ignore I think. 

I suspect we take Wilson. BTW those who are saying he is small, there have been a few recent pictures that suggest his height is not being exaggerated.

[genot]

The most enticing thing, (to me), about a trade down with Carolina is the chance that we could ask for and hopefully receive Brian Burns as part of the package. You've solved a major problem on your defensive front. I suppose if that would occur Carolina's 1st and 2nd pick in 21, and a #2 in 22 sounds like fair compensation

[nycdan]

I honestly do not recall a single instance of someone saying we could get three 2021 first round picks.  I see 'three first round picks' often and that's realistic.  I do think you are hammering home on a point that nobody is disputing.  

[Beerfish]

And for the people on the get watson bandwagon I actually think a trade down is the best chance to to maybe get him ... next year.

I do think Houston is going to keep him this year and try and repair damage.  If things still go bad then next year then he is on the block.  If we trade down we will most likely have at least three 1st rounders and maybe more.  We also would have had this draft to really up the talent level of this team.

[UntouchableCrew]

39 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Actually yes it was presented as the value of 3 current 1st rounders, with a list of 2021 1st round prospects we could be drafting instead of just one guy we draft at #2 or trade the #2 pick to get. 

And that's my point. This year's draft is not going to return multiple 1sts this year, let alone 3 of them. It'd require a minimum of 6 sequential transactions to accomplish it.

Well, yeah, in that case whoever it making that argument isn't being realistic.

Depending on how far we move down you're probably looking at their 2021 first (swap) 2021 second, 2022 first and then some.

[derp]

18 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Context of trading down vs using that pick on anyone else, either even-up or via a package.

Watson, another veteran QB, Sewell, Fields, Z.Wilson, Chase...

Doesn't matter really. 

I mean I think you know the answer to the question is the Jets aren’t going to get three mid first round picks...*this year*. It’s so obvious that I’m wondering what prompted the question.

[dcJet]

Buzzkill warning

It's so expensive to move to 2 that I don't see anyone doing it for these two QB's especially with the uncertainty because of Covid.

Which team would do it? 

Atlanta can get the QB at 4 that drops to them and even if the do trade up, it's  a 2nd and 3rd for us... not exactly a "haul".

Most Mocks have Sewell dropping to Cincy, so they won't trade up.   They can wait and if Sewell is gone they can trade down themselves if a QB drops or grab Chase.  

Next candidates are Det, Car, Den at 7-9 but they probably want to trade down too with all the holes in their rosters.  Still, it only takes one team to fall in love though.  If that happens, it'll probably be one of these guys but...

Their GM will have to cough up 3 first rounders and maybe two 2nds to trade with us.  That's like Watson expensive.  I would think they would rather hang back and pray that their QB drops and then trade with Atlanta or Cincy where they only have give a couple 2nds and 3rds.

Summary: GM's may look to trade up to 4 or 5 on draft day if their QB drops.  It's affordable.  

 

[Chrebetfan80]

33 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You're arguing with me or agreeing with me? I can't tell.

I'm aware of all those scenarios and addressed them in the thread starter, so I think you're agreeing but it doesn't sound like it.

My contention is it's been presented here on more than one occasion that the #2 pick is worth 3 current 1st round picks.

 

im not sure what im doing either, I'm exhausted lol I dont think i was trying to do either. 

I do not think you could get 3 1sts in the same year for the 2OA.  I do think you could get 2 firsts (in the same year) and a combination of a 3rd and maybe a future mid round as well for it.  

Again though like we are saying there is no one with that value available to trade with.  So you are left with the options I talked about.  

I think the most realistic packages they could get is a 2021 1st +2021 3rd/4th. 2022 1st and possibly 2023 1st. 

or something like 2021 1st + 2nd.  2022 1st +4/5th.   Although I may be under selling it if there is a big bidding war. 

[Cp561]

2 hours ago, Dcat said:

Be proud of the brevity exercised in the thread starter.  Gives it a chance to survive.  My view is that #2 is not netting three first rounders, unless 2 of them are for 2022 & 2023.  Really?  Who would do that for Zach Wilson or Fields?  Artificially pumped up prospects in a not-so-great QB class.  JMO.  

I'm sure you've done a ton of scouting and film work on them huh?

[docdhc]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

Does any team have 3 first round picks this year? No. Only Jags Dolphins and us have 2   So getting three first round picks would require multiple trades and trading partners so you are right it’s not realistic. Accumulating picks over a few years as in those past deals does give us an idea of what the pick is really worth, though. You just can’t go by the chart in this case because no one team has 3 2021 first rounders to trade and it gets too complicated. 

[Greenseed4]

3 minutes ago, dcJet said:

Buzzkill warning

It's so expensive to move to 2 that I don't see anyone doing it for these two QB's especially with the uncertainty because of Covid.

Which team would do it? 

Atlanta can get the QB at 4 that drops to them and even if the do trade up, it's  a 2nd and 3rd for us... not exactly a "haul".

Most Mocks have Sewell dropping to Cincy, so they won't trade up.   They can wait and if Sewell is gone they can trade down themselves if a QB drops or grab Chase.  

Next candidates are Det, Car, Den at 7-9 but they probably want to trade down too with all the holes in their rosters.  Still, it only takes one team to fall in love though.  If that happens, it'll probably be one of these guys but...

Their GM will have to cough up 3 first rounders and maybe two 2nds to trade with us.  That's like Watson expensive.  I would think they would rather hang back and pray that their QB drops and then trade with Atlanta or Cincy where they only have give a couple 2nds and 3rds.

Summary: GM's may look to trade up to 4 or 5 on draft day if their QB drops.  It's affordable.  

 

Carolina was prepared to send #8, a 5th, and a Teddy to Detroit, so I think they are prime candidates for a trade up. They want to upgrade Bridgewater and might want to get in front of division rival ATL to do so.  (Comp: #2 for #8, #39, 2022 1st)

Philadelphia might want to start it’s new regime with a new QB and leverage the ‘Douglas connection’ to do so; trading Wentz would provide the ammo necessary to make a strong offer, and allow them to pick their favorite non-Lawrence QB.
(Comp: #2 for #6, #19/21, 2022 2nd)

 

[Sperm Edwards]

34 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

I feel like you started a thread just to make this point, and not to discuss what potential trade downs could yield. 

Well, yes and I didn't suggest otherwise. I all but flatly said, from the tone, that I don't see how it's possible despite the repeated claims that it is, and that's why only a trade-down is our best option.

Personally I don't care whether they stay at #2 or not. I'd like them to draft a QB if one's there who'll turn into what Darnold was expected to be; I'd like them to trade down if not; I'd like them to trade the pick outright (with more than that) if a sure thing like Watson is available. If they can trade down and still get the best QB available to us (i.e. any QB other than Lawrence), all the better.

What of it? I'm not hiding the ball here.

[RutgersJetFan]

28 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I honestly do not recall a single instance of someone saying we could get three 2021 first round picks.  

I haven't said it but I'll say it now. The Jets can get three first round picks. Everyone is relying on logical GM's but we know that some teams are ******* dumb. Find one.

[RutgersJetFan]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What of it? I'm not hiding the ball here.

You started a thread on an internet forum JUST to talk about stuff. How dare you.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I haven't said it but I'll say it now. The Jets can get three first round picks. Everyone is relying on logical GM's but we know that some teams are ******* dumb. Find one.

See? This guy ↑ is one of the witches.

Burn him. Burn him good. 

[ljr]

31 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I honestly do not recall a single instance of someone saying we could get three 2021 first round picks.  I see 'three first round picks' often and that's realistic.  I do think you are hammering home on a point that nobody is disputing.  

 

This

---

not sure if i just haven't been paying attention, but i don't believe very many (if any) people are arguing for us to get 3 number 1 picks in this years draft

---

Even fair trade for Watson (imo) most people are saying ranges somewhere between the equivalent of first rounders (including the #2 this year) plus firsts in the next 2 drafts ... all the way up to this, as well as a first rounder in the draft after that

---

obviously the #2 pick is not worth more than Watson 

---

i think you've been hearing something that people are not actually saying

 

 

[CanadaSteve]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

I don't think you are getting three first round picks Sperm...Not gonna happen.

That said, there are many options where the Jets could slide down 1 or 2 times where they get decent value.  But I don't see how the #2 pick is worth 3 first rounders.  I would also depend on who they trade with.  

I mean, sure, if your first pick isn't until number 47 in the second round, going up to #2 might be worth it.  But if Carolina wants to move from #8 to #2, in no way are we getting three first's.  

I mean, if you move from #2 to #8 and take this year's 2nd and next year's 1st and 3rd, that's not a bad haul for moving down 6 spots.  Of course, if the idea is to draft a QB, you wouldn't.  But if they think they can get Chase or Smith, then why not?

 

[docdhc]

12 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I haven't said it but I'll say it now. The Jets can get three first round picks. Everyone is relying on logical GM's but we know that some teams are ******* dumb. Find one.

Just can’t get 3 2021 firsts because no one has more than 2. 

[CanadaSteve]

14 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not hiding the ball here.

We just signed Tom Shane to a 1yr deal to do that.

[Flea Flicking Frank]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Actually yes it was presented as the value of 3 current 1st rounders, with a list of 2021 1st round prospects we could be drafting instead of just one guy we draft at #2 or trade the #2 pick to get. 

And that's my point. This year's draft is not going to return multiple 1sts this year, let alone 3 of them. It'd require a minimum of 6 sequential transactions to accomplish it.

Just out of curiosity, why does it have to be 3 2021  1st rounders? I don't know the context of what you are referring to in the way it was presented. I have seen it presented as the value of trading it to Houston for DW, but maybe there is another context that you are seeing. If its in the context of trading it for DW, I think saying thats the theoretical value of what you are trading for Watson is accurate, even if we couldn't necessarily get that in reality if we tried to trade our 2nd pick for other picks.

[Greenseed4]

39 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

What of it? I'm not hiding the ball here.

You tricked me into reading this thread by giving it a misleading title, and I want my 4 minutes back. 

 

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, Dcat said:

And none of the QBS after Lawrence is worth it.  And no team will trade that kind of massive draft capital for an OT or even a DE.  If JD pulls off a big trade down haul, I will be very impressed.

there's a part of me that wonders if this DJ/Matt Miller stuff about Wilson "better than Lawrence" is to help JD create a trade market at 2 

it feels unlikely they find anyone willing to pay a price that isn't an embarrassing lowball 

[Butterfield]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

And that's all a long shot, to say the least. I don't even think Douglas would trade down so much that his first pick was  in the bottom half of round 1, after starting way up at #2. 

I don’t see it as likely, just as a long shot possibility where I guess it could work.  

[Dcat]

2 hours ago, Cp561 said:

I'm sure you've done a ton of scouting and film work on them huh?

of course

[Integrity28]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I wasn't asking about examples of past trade-ups, and anyway none of those involved even 2 current-year 1st round picks, never mind 3.

I'm asking in the 2021 draft, since this is the draft they have this high pick (not a cherry-picked draft from the past) show me how the Jets can acquire three mid-1st round picks in 2021 by trading down from #2. 

It'd take so many trades down and then back up again that I don't see how it's realistic. 

I think, and could be wrong, that the assumption is we trade back from # 2 with a team that has 2 firsts?

Or maybe back with one team, trade Sam to another = 3?

I don’t see anyone saying we’d get 3 firsts this year from the #2. No team has the capital. I think the #2 could gets us 3 firsts spread over a couple years + Sam + Jamal trades.

[Integrity28]

2 hours ago, genot said:

The most enticing thing, (to me), about a trade down with Carolina is the chance that we could ask for and hopefully receive Brian Burns as part of the package. You've solved a major problem on your defensive front. I suppose if that would occur Carolina's 1st and 2nd pick in 21, and a #2 in 22 sounds like fair compensation

?

[Sperm Edwards]

57 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

I think, and could be wrong, that the assumption is we trade back from # 2 with a team that has 2 firsts?

Or maybe back with one team, trade Sam to another = 3?

I don’t see anyone saying we’d get 3 firsts this year from the #2. No team has the capital. I think the #2 could gets us 3 firsts spread over a couple years + Sam + Jamal trades.

That's what I'm saying. The assertion had been - whether in actuality or in chart value - 3 mid-1st round picks from round 1 this year. That's allegedly what the #2 overall pick is worth from looking at JJ's old chart. 

e.g. on paper, pick 2 = picks 18+19+20 (maybe a bit better than that, since there's always a premium when someone's trading up that high for a QB)

That may be all well and good on paper from looking at a chart, but it wouldn't happen because no one's sitting on those 3 picks, let alone sitting on those 3 looking to move them all for one pick at #2. No potential trade partner this year even has a 2nd pick in round 1, let alone two such teams. It's a theory-only dream. 

Best we'll get is a combo of 2nd rounders and/or future 1st rounders (surely lower than #2, on top of being a year later), depending how far Douglas trades down; neither of which compensation has the value of a mid-1st this year since (a) you don't know what that slot will be next year, and (b) help in a year isn't worth as much as help today. 

It's not that I necessarily object to that; it's just that it's not the same thing. It's a big gamble/hope that the team trading up to #2 will be on par with recent Jets teams, never mind for two years in a row if the "other" 1st rounder a team gives us is a year after that. Ordinarily I wouldn't mind, except we kinda need a QB.

[Larz]

At some point will we see what it looks like?

[varjet]

What are examples of teams giving up a bunch of draft capital to move up to the top of the draft?

Jets for Darnold?

Goff?  Mariota?  Trubisky?  

I guess the Giants traded for Eli.

Look where Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Allen, Daniel Jones were picked.  

When you step back from it, do you see guys like Wilson and Fields being players you trade up for?

Given what the Jets wasted on Mosley, Trumaine, Bell and even Darnold, is it really a big deal if a team with a ton of cap space takes a chance on Wilson or Fields at 2 and still keep its picks, and maybe get one for Darnold too?  The tragedy is trading all of your picks for a single player. 

[Philc1]

Maybe the Wilson hype Nets us a nice package of picks.  There’s a sucker born every minute

[Philc1]

14 hours ago, bitonti said:

there's a part of me that wonders if this DJ/Matt Miller stuff about Wilson "better than Lawrence" is to help JD create a trade market at 2 

it feels unlikely they find anyone willing to pay a price that isn't an embarrassing lowball 

I’m hoping for once the sports media is doing us a solid with this hysterical hypetrain over Wilson

 

Or maybe it’s just a slow news cycle

[Raideraholic]

19 hours ago, Butterfield said:

Only way I could see it happening,

Raiders trade Carr to the Colts for the #21.  Raiders make another trade, maybe Mariota and a 21 2nd or 22 1st to the Redskins for the 19.  Raiders then trade the 17, 19, 21 for the #2.  

The Jets then stick with Darnold, and pick 17, 19, 21, 23 and 34...

For the Raiders to trade Derek Carr it would take some ridiculous offer . Two first rounders, and probably a defensive starter.   That’s the only way he’s traded.    If Carr was ever traded Mariota wouldn’t go anywhere.    It’s not easy to learn J Gruden system.

If the Raiders don’t do something dumb , and cut the best Rt in football . ( Trent Brown) .  They don’t need anything on offense , as they have to fix the defense.( reason they missed the playoffs again).

[Sperm Edwards]

10 hours ago, varjet said:

What are examples of teams giving up a bunch of draft capital to move up to the top of the draft?

Jets for Darnold?

Goff?  Mariota?  Trubisky?  

I guess the Giants traded for Eli.

Look where Mahomes, Watson, Jackson, Allen, Daniel Jones were picked.  

When you step back from it, do you see guys like Wilson and Fields being players you trade up for?

Given what the Jets wasted on Mosley, Trumaine, Bell and even Darnold, is it really a big deal if a team with a ton of cap space takes a chance on Wilson or Fields at 2 and still keep its picks, and maybe get one for Darnold too?  The tragedy is trading all of your picks for a single player. 

The issue for them isn’t trading up; it’s whether or not they bet on the wrong guy. The problem these teams have is they don’t usually get to choose between the guy they coveted and the better guy they could have had instead. Only one that sticks out on that front is Trubisky. (Also there was no trade up for Mariota, so maybe you’re thinking of someone else). 

Goff went to a SB. Wentz might have if he wasn’t injured (he was having his best season & was a better QB than Foles, but not necessarily a better QB than Foles played like for that stretch). The Giants won 2 SBs with Eli. 

But yes, more often it’s a mistake. But it’s hardly an exact science and mistakes are made by every team every year. The degree of those errors, sometimes the setting the players go into, and a little luck, is really what separates them. 

The Jets traded up from #6 for Darnold and then Allen is taken #7. Also the Jets could have moved up for Jackson just as easily as Baltimore did, seeing how we had not one but two higher 2nd rounders ahead of the Ravens, and still kept #6 (or traded down from #6 to finance that later trade-up). Likelihoods aside, things lined up for that to happen quite easily. But still, while I’m not a guard-at-#6 guy, this is the one instance in history it might have been worth it, since with the Jets still would have had the ammo and opportunity for the QB and RT (LT) and TE Baltimore drafted. As things stand, Nelson + L.Jackson + O.Brown + Andrews sounds just a bit better than Darnold + Nathan Shepherd. Just a bit. 

Two prospects, (both with 1st round grades) who quickly begame mega-star QBs in Mahomes and Watson, is rare to even being in the same draft at all, let alone neither getting taken earlier than #10 and #12, when there wasn’t exactly an Andrew Luck type “sure thing” prospect ahead of them. They’re not just exceptions; they’re the rarest of exceptions. So I wouldn’t base any decisions on that happening again. More likely a pair who’d slip to 10 & 12 look like Ponder & Gabbert, and moving up is a better bet.