Trading down from #2 -- what would that look like?

[Larz]

@Sperm Edwards

What would a trade down, you know, look like?

can you give us your take on 

1) a single trade down a “few” spots, say in the 3-5 range 

2) a single big drop, maybe 10 spots?

3) the double dip, a trade back twice. 

txs 

[PepPep]

23 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not asking about an ideal theoretical situation or how it may have worked in a cherry-picked past draft.

I'm asking in this draft, in 2021 and 2021 alone, how would it work out?

Here are the teams with two #1 picks: Jacksonville, Jets, Miami. Jacksonville would be a trade up not a trade down, and Miami isn't going to fork over their other 1st round pick to the division-rival Jets to move up 1 slot. 

So how would it happen this year? Three firsts (without two of those firsts being in the 2022 and 2023 drafts).

I don't know who told you the Jets would get 3 first round picks in THIS draft for the #2 pick. I guess ONE, highly unlikely possibility is if Miami REALLY wants Sewell and the Jets bluff well enough that they will take him at #2 they may give up #18 to move up one spot. But thats a A LOT to give up to move up one spot on a bluff. This would give the Jets an extra first rounder, a total of 3 first rounders and if they get a later first rounder for Darnold, a whopping 4 first rounders. BUT AGAIN, this is a dream scenario, because it would also mean the Jets would still be in a  position to trade down again or take the QB of their choice (not named TL). 

Another possibility is if a team trades a player and adds a first rounder before the draft. This would increase the amount of teams with 2 first round picks in the first round and simply give the Jets another potential trade down partner who could offer an extra 2021 first round pick. This actually seems like a more likely scenario. Especially if said team executes the player trade SPECIFICALLY to have ammo to trade up for a QB. For Example- the Cowboys. If they have already decided they won't be paying Dak, they may really want Wilson or Fields. They have enough talent on the roster where they can trade an o-lineman for a 1st rounder and then use that 1st rounder to move up to #2 along with their 10th overall pick.  

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Larz said:

@Sperm Edwards

What would a trade down, you know, look like?

can you give us your take on 

1) a single trade down a “few” spots, say in the 3-5 range 

2) a single big drop, maybe 10 spots?

3) the double dip, a trade back twice. 

txs 

it's too early to tell; that changes as the draft gets closer (or even underway). Right now any alleged consensus for the #2 pick is in flux. If, for whatever reason, say Wilson separates as the far & away front-runner, with Fields being (to most teams) a distant 3rd-ranked QB, other teams' move-up cost rises. So I don't know what I'd offer up beyond a chart. Plus it depends what team.

1) Move down 3-5 slots

Bengals are 3 slots down and Detroit is 5 slots down; neither seem likely to move up to #2 (certainly not for a QB). Possibly Cincinnati might want to leapfrog Miami if they're both targeting Sewell, but I doubt they'll ante up more than someone else would for the next-best QB. Admittedly, that's too early to tell here in Feb.

So the Eagles are the most likely who'd trade up within 5 slots. Moving up from 6 to 2, for a QB, would probably have to start by including next year's 1, since they don't have extra picks this year and I'm not seeing any player they can throw in to lessen that load. Moving up from 6 to 2 - again, depending on the demand for our 2-slot - should look like their #1 next year plus either their 3rd rounder this year or bump up one of our 3rds to their 2nd. Naturally the more the better, but a lot of that depends on whether or not there are other serious offers. Next would be 6-7 slots (Carolina/Denver) and I'd think the absolute minimum, unless Douglas wants to trade back no matter what, would be their #1 next year plus this year's 2nd. 

2) Single big drop ~10 spots

Giants to #11; SF #12; NE #15; Was #19.

Forget the last two. New England isn't sending a bounty to the Jets. Washington is so far down they'd probably have to fork over Young or Sweat to even begin a conversation, and that's too nuanced to guess at (if they'd even be willing to part with them). 

Giants/SF are similar enough in terms of draft slot. I think they're also more likely to happen with a player changing hands (e.g. Engram, Barkley, Garoppolo, McGlinchey) and adjusting from there. Not saying I'm in favor of any/all of them instead of pick-for-pick, but they could have enough trade value to offset a pick. I'm also operating on the premise Bosa is untouchable. 

SF is harder to say, because they're not moving up to #2 without also moving Garoppolo, and that'd factor in what they'd have to give up. 

NYG has to be looking at parting with #11, #42, #76 plus next year's #1. How much more or less would be determined by demand (and how motivated Douglas is to move down) at least as much as historical trades. 

3) Double dip 

Beyond just adding and subtracting chart numbers, it's not something I could even guess at without knowing who's on the board. e.g. moving down from #11 could/would net a lot more if someone's moving up for a QB than if they're moving up for a SS [insert swipe at Maccagnan]. Also I doubt that's going to be the Jets' desire in the first place. The team isn't really in need of extra draft picks today as it is, let alone after already trading down once from #2. At some point the goal has to be using picks for players, not for more picks.

 

Don't know what else you're looking for. My contention was never that we couldn't pick up 2022/2023 firsts. 

[IndianaJet]

 

 

 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

I don't know who told you the Jets would get 3 first round picks in THIS draft for the #2 pick. I guess ONE, highly unlikely possibility is if Miami REALLY wants Sewell and the Jets bluff well enough that they will take him at #2 they may give up #18 to move up one spot. But thats a A LOT to give up to move up one spot on a bluff. This would give the Jets an extra first rounder, a total of 3 first rounders and if they get a later first rounder for Darnold, a whopping 4 first rounders. BUT AGAIN, this is a dream scenario, because it would also mean the Jets would still be in a  position to trade down again or take the QB of their choice (not named TL). 

Another possibility is if a team trades a player and adds a first rounder before the draft. This would increase the amount of teams with 2 first round picks in the first round and simply give the Jets another potential trade down partner who could offer an extra 2021 first round pick. This actually seems like a more likely scenario. Especially if said team executes the player trade SPECIFICALLY to have ammo to trade up for a QB. For Example- the Cowboys. If they have already decided they won't be paying Dak, they may really want Wilson or Fields. They have enough talent on the roster where they can trade an o-lineman for a 1st rounder and then use that 1st rounder to move up to #2 along with their 10th overall pick.  

Miami's not giving up #18 to move up one slot (let alone to the Jets). In particular since, individual rankings of the prospects aside, Sewell isn't the only LT prospect projected in the top 10. If someone, somehow leapfrogged them for a tackle, Miami would be far better off trading down themselves to a team with a big stiffy for their preference between Wilson & Fields.

The team I think that's most likely to pick up another 1st rounder before the draft, who'd also be within earshot of #2, is San Fran if they can pry a 1st rounder off someone - or pry 1st round value from the Jets - for Garoppolo. 

Next would be the Raiders (I still need more time before I can reflexively call them Las Vegas). I don't know that Mariota is going to return a 1st round pick, with only the franchise tag protecting a team from potentially losing him after 1 season. His salary is low enough that a team isn't losing two players (the draft pick, and the extra player they now can't afford with a new $25MM QB). I'd be surprised if Gruden trades Carr. Both are possibilities, though, I guess.

Also - and I don't know who'd be the trade partner; maybe Washington - Atlanta could trade Matt Ryan if they feel any shot they'd have had with him is already past, and want to move on before Julio hits the wall. Ryan's got a few years left on his current deal at 23, 24, and 28 million. I guess they could trade Jones, but I couldn't see them trading Julio but keeping Ryan. It'd be a total rebuild effort whereby they trade both. Seems like a long shot to me. 

[RVAJet815]

20 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

 

 

 

 

Yup! and I always take both offers!  

Last time, I traded down to 3, then 8. Took Lance, then traded the Fish pick to Dallas to get back up to 10 and took Pitts. Far fetched? Sure. But I love that scenario! Look no further than the Redskins with Charlie Casserly a few years back, trade down multiple times, then trade up with the extra ammo!

[Larz]

5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

it's too early to tell; that changes as the draft gets closer (or even underway). Right now any alleged consensus for the #2 pick is in flux. If, for whatever reason, say Wilson separates as the far & away front-runner, with Fields being (to most teams) a distant 3rd-ranked QB, other teams' move-up cost rises. So I don't know what I'd offer up beyond a chart. Plus it depends what team.

1) Move down 3-5 slots

Bengals are 3 slots down and Detroit is 5 slots down; neither seem likely to move up to #2 (certainly not for a QB). Possibly Cincinnati might want to leapfrog Miami if they're both targeting Sewell, but I doubt they'll ante up more than someone else would for the next-best QB. Admittedly, that's too early to tell here in Feb.

So the Eagles are the most likely who'd trade up within 5 slots. Moving up from 6 to 2, for a QB, would probably have to start by including next year's 1, since they don't have extra picks this year and I'm not seeing any player they can throw in to lessen that load. Moving up from 6 to 2 - again, depending on the demand for our 2-slot - should look like their #1 next year plus either their 3rd rounder this year or bump up one of our 3rds to their 2nd. Naturally the more the better, but a lot of that depends on whether or not there are other serious offers. Next would be 6-7 slots (Carolina/Denver) and I'd think the absolute minimum, unless Douglas wants to trade back no matter what, would be their #1 next year plus this year's 2nd. 

2) Single big drop ~10 spots

Giants to #11; SF #12; NE #15; Was #19.

Forget the last two. New England isn't sending a bounty to the Jets. Washington is so far down they'd probably have to fork over Young or Sweat to even begin a conversation, and that's too nuanced to guess at (if they'd even be willing to part with them). 

Giants/SF are similar enough in terms of draft slot. I think they're also more likely to happen with a player changing hands (e.g. Engram, Barkley, Garoppolo, McGlinchey) and adjusting from there. Not saying I'm in favor of any/all of them instead of pick-for-pick, but they could have enough trade value to offset a pick. I'm also operating on the premise Bosa is untouchable. 

SF is harder to say, because they're not moving up to #2 without also moving Garoppolo, and that'd factor in what they'd have to give up. 

NYG has to be looking at parting with #11, #42, #76 plus next year's #1. How much more or less would be determined by demand (and how motivated Douglas is to move down) at least as much as historical trades. 

3) Double dip 

Beyond just adding and subtracting chart numbers, it's not something I could even guess at without knowing who's on the board. e.g. moving down from #11 could/would net a lot more if someone's moving up for a QB than if they're moving up for a SS [insert swipe at Maccagnan]. Also I doubt that's going to be the Jets' desire in the first place. The team isn't really in need of extra draft picks today as it is, let alone after already trading down once from #2. At some point the goal has to be using picks for players, not for more picks.

 

Don't know what else you're looking for. My contention was never that we couldn't pick up 2022/2023 firsts. 

Thanks!  I was kinda nervous that you were just going to smite me lol

[slimjasi]

Listen, if we end up with 3 first round picks for moving down, I wouldn't cry about it. 

But I would want a decent veteran QB brought in. 

[Sperm Edwards]

13 hours ago, Larz said:

Thanks!  I was kinda nervous that you were just going to smite me lol

Nah, with regards to Jets/football stuff I disagree with people here all the time (as though that’s somehow escaped your attention). I wouldn’t get spiteful (smiteful?) unless I thought you were just being an even bigger a-hole than I am, which itself is less common. 

[Raideraholic]

18 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Miami's not giving up #18 to move up one slot (let alone to the Jets). In particular since, individual rankings of the prospects aside, Sewell isn't the only LT prospect projected in the top 10. If someone, somehow leapfrogged them for a tackle, Miami would be far better off trading down themselves to a team with a big stiffy for their preference between Wilson & Fields.

The team I think that's most likely to pick up another 1st rounder before the draft, who'd also be within earshot of #2, is San Fran if they can pry a 1st rounder off someone - or pry 1st round value from the Jets - for Garoppolo. 

Next would be the Raiders (I still need more time before I can reflexively call them Las Vegas). I don't know that Mariota is going to return a 1st round pick, with only the franchise tag protecting a team from potentially losing him after 1 season. His salary is low enough that a team isn't losing two players (the draft pick, and the extra player they now can't afford with a new $25MM QB). I'd be surprised if Gruden trades Carr. Both are possibilities, though, I guess.

Also - and I don't know who'd be the trade partner; maybe Washington - Atlanta could trade Matt Ryan if they feel any shot they'd have had with him is already past, and want to move on before Julio hits the wall. Ryan's got a few years left on his current deal at 23, 24, and 28 million. I guess they could trade Jones, but I couldn't see them trading Julio but keeping Ryan. It'd be a total rebuild effort whereby they trade both. Seems like a long shot to me. 

If Mariota coming in to be the a team starter ( team trades for him) his contract easily is worth 20 million.( the incentives are easily attainable for a starting Qb) .  I think when the Raiders trade Mariota , I think it will be to team like Washington for a player.( like Dt - Da’ron Payne- last year of his rookie contract.) 

This way Mariota can be Washington back Qb to Alex Smith ( Mariota gets 10 million to be the backup, and next year has legitimate shot to be their starter.