At least one NFL team has Zach Wilson ranked as the best QB in the draft. Update: Multiple teams not only one!

[FidelioJet]

7 minutes ago, GodDamnSnack said:

Just curious, why is that no bueno? To me it shows that he doesn't panic under pressure. I would be more interested in a stat that shows mistakes against the blitz vs. mistakes against no blitz.

Thank you!

It’s not saying he’s leading in getting sacked (that would be No Bueno) To me, it says he’s patient - knows when a blitz is coming something is certain to open up.  Being patient and not panicking is a must for an NFL QB.

[#27TheDominator]

16 minutes ago, fullblast said:

What I see is their arms are about equal, but Wilson’s looks stronger because he has a quicker release. He also throws from off-angles without losing any velocity, which also tends to jump off the tape.

I also think that because he’s smaller than Fields the spin he does get on the ball *looks* more impressive.

I will give you the release, but Fields seems to comparatively rip it.  I think people have different ideas of arm strength.  To some it is how far they can throw.  For some it includes touch.  To me it is ripping outs/comebacks.  Getting the ball there fast.  It isn't always the best throw, but velocity-wise, I feel like Fields seems better than Wilson. 

[FidelioJet]

2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I will give you the release, but Fields seems to comparatively rip it.  I think people have different ideas of arm strength.  To some it is how far they can throw.  For some it includes touch.  To me it ripping outs.  Getting the ball there fast.  It isn't always the best throw, but velocity-wise, I feel like Fields seems better than Wilson. 

Both of their arms are better than TL’s.

[Beerfish]

pro days mean dick all for the top QBs for the most part other than teams getting to talk to a guy maybe.

pro days are more important for lesser known players imo.

The trevor lawrence pro day was simply pitch and catch and basically showed nothing that was not already known.

[Jetlife33]

54 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

They appear to be equal in size. Now style is another issue that I give Field’s a strong advantage 

You are correct, both listed at 6’3” according to a quick google search. I had Wilson listed at 6’1”for some reason. 

[redlichtie]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

No surprise. 

Lawrence is a very very good QB prospect and will go #1 overall.

He is also perhaps the most overrated QB prospect to come out in the last 20 years.

 

Agree that this is not surprising, you only have to watch Wilson to be wowed, you only have to watch Lawrence to be underwhelmed....but I’m increasingly of the view that, after all the angst, after all the wailing, we’re going to be sitting there at No2 ....and Trevor Lawrence will be available....then it all goes off 

[Irish Jet]

Nonsense article. You see bullsh*t like this every year.

And it’s completely irrelevant given most teams aren’t going to bother thoroughly scouting players they have no chance of drafting.

[56mehl56]

1 hour ago, derp said:

I think one of his big issues is nicely summed up by the stat that pointed out his time to release was longer against the blitz than it was against no blitz. No bueno.

I absolutely think he’s very talented but I think he needs to sit for a bit. That tendency alone is something that NFL teams will exploit over and over, blitzing is pretty much the first thing defenses will try to slow you down until you show you can beat it consistently.

Do you realize that OSU's passing game has a major emphasis on verticality. A hot read for Wilson or Lawrence is a 2 yard pass or dump off at the LOS , its different in OSU's passing attack. Put Fields in the BYU or Clemson offenses and that time comes down.  This is another instance of relying on stats without taking into account context. 

[derp]

28 minutes ago, GodDamnSnack said:

Just curious, why is that no bueno? To me it shows that he doesn't panic under pressure. I would be more interested in a stat that shows mistakes against the blitz vs. mistakes against no blitz.

It actually shows the opposite of what you think. Holding the ball when teams blitz tends to be a sign of panic, not throwing it.

Think about elite pro QB’s when they get blitzed - the ball gets out quickly.

I could see how this would be confusing in isolation - sometimes the blitz doesn’t get home and you don’t want to just be throwing it. But when it’s an average of all plays it’s not good.

Think about how fast a pass rush gets to a quarterback when a team is bringing extra rushers versus when they don’t. It’s obviously faster on average with extra rushers - otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

So on the average play with a cleaner pocket and more DB’s, Fields is able to more quickly find an open receiver than with a less clean pocket and less DB’s. It’s not like every blitz is a screen play. He should be able more easily find open guys against the blitz and not leave time for the pressure to get there.

I don’t recall the average stats versus the blitz but I do believe they bear this out as well.

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

They appear to be equal in size. Now style is another issue that I give Field’s a strong advantage 

Look where their feet are.

Now, look at the extension of their arms + how Fields is leaning. If each guys arm is 3 feet, they are a minimum of 6 feet apart.

Fields is bigger. This isn’t even an argument. It’s just how depth of field works.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Look where their feet are.

Now, look at the extension of their arms + how Fields is leaning. If each guys arm is 3 feet, they are a minimum of 6 feet apart.

Fields is bigger. This isn’t even an argument. It’s just how depth of field works.

 

You've @GATA be good at figuring out optical illusions.

[32EBoozer]

3 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Look where their feet are.

Now, look at the extension of their arms + how Fields is leaning. If each guys arm is 3 feet, they are a minimum of 6 feet apart.

Fields is bigger. This isn’t even an argument. It’s just how depth of field works.

Person in the forefront will always appear bigger in photos. 

[derp]

12 minutes ago, 56mehl56 said:

Do you realize that OSU's passing game has a major emphasis on verticality. A hot read for Wilson or Lawrence is a 2 yard pass or dump off at the LOS , its different in OSU's passing attack. Put Fields in the BYU or Clemson offenses and that time comes down.  This is another instance of relying on stats without taking into account context. 

I am aware and I still think that it’s a problem. The OSU offense runs verticals when they’re not getting blitzed, too. You’re comparing one guy in two different situations, not two guys to each other.

[GodDamnSnack]

3 minutes ago, derp said:

It actually shows the opposite of what you think. Holding the ball when teams blitz tends to be a sign of panic, not throwing it.

Think about elite pro QB’s when they get blitzed - the ball gets out quickly.

I could see how this would be confusing in isolation - sometimes the blitz doesn’t get home and you don’t want to just be throwing it. But when it’s an average of all plays it’s not good.

Think about how fast a pass rush gets to a quarterback when a team is bringing extra rushers versus when they don’t. It’s obviously faster on average with extra rushers - otherwise they wouldn’t do it.

So on the average play with a cleaner pocket and more DB’s, Fields is able to more quickly find an open receiver than with a less clean pocket and less DB’s. It’s not like every blitz is a screen play. He should be able more easily find open guys against the blitz and not leave time for the pressure to get there.

I don’t recall the average stats versus the blitz but I do believe they bear this out as well.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I don't think all elite pro QBs can be lumped together though. Lamar Jackson is a lot different than Tom Brady in his response to the blitz and that's a good thing. Justin Fields is also really good at pulling something together when plays break down and I don't mind him holding the ball a little longer.

IMO, it's a bad thing if a player like Fields throws the ball away as his default when he is clearly such a talented play maker. He also has incredible accuracy down field and I dont mind if he takes an extra sack here and there when he hits on big plays so often. He reminds me of a bigger Russell Wilson

[redlichtie]

41 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Teams do, in fact, have players ranked before pro days.  It’s a thing that happens and in all likelyhood there are more than one team that have him ranked higher than Lawrence.

Those rankings may certainly change after pro-days and interviews but teams have been rating these guys all season. 

Contrary to belief around here, TL is not a perfect prospect.   Neither is Wilson or Fields - but I can certainly see why a team can see Wilson as the better pro prospect.

excellent post, and as to the bolded, not only that but they have them ranked before the season!

I remember reading a couple of pre-season draft projections before the 2017 season (I forget where unfortunately, may have been a Bob McGinn anonymous scouts take) that called the No 1 pick in 2018 would be Josh Allen....it was not a popular opinion but it was more than one report and it was out there a year before the draft, in the end he didn’t go No 1 overall but clearly the opinion of Allen was high and out there and didn’t match with what the average fan saw. I remember being quite shocked at the time but it turns out those guys were spot on, he may not have gone No 1 overall but he’s done everything since to justify those lofty predictions.

I see a lot of the same fan prejudice against Wilson that was the prevailing opinion amongst most casual fans and observers about Josh Allen.

when I started watching Wilson I couldn’t help think of the similarities to Mahomes and Rodgers, which at the time I told myself, don’t be ridiculous, now I’m hearing exactly those comparisons more and more. Of course looking reminiscent of those guys at BYU and then actually going on to be anywhere near as good as a pro are two entirely different things but I’m not surprised to see the things that are increasingly being said about ZW

[32EBoozer]

21 minutes ago, Jetlife33 said:

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

 

You are correct, both listed at 6’3” according to a quick google search. I had Wilson listed at 6’1”for some reason. 

 

9 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Look where their feet are.

Now, look at the extension of their arms + how Fields is leaning. If each guys arm is 3 feet, they are a minimum of 6 feet apart.

Fields is bigger. This isn’t even an argument. It’s just how depth of field works.

How do a reconcile facts against Apes optical intellect?

[Flea Flicking Frank]

I think Fields is going to be the best QB to come out of this draft, does anyone give a rats ass what I think?

[derp]

1 minute ago, GodDamnSnack said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I don't think all elite pro QBs can be lumped together though. Lamar Jackson is a lot different than Tom Brady in his response to the blitz and that's a good thing. Justin Fields is also really good at pulling something together when plays break down and I don't mind him holding the ball a little longer.

IMO, it's a bad thing if a player like Fields throws the ball away as his default when he is clearly such a talented play maker. He also has incredible accuracy down field and I dont mind if he takes an extra sack here and there when he hits on big plays so often. He reminds me of a bigger Russell Wilson

I don’t know. Fields is a pass first guy who can run. I think that’s the appeal. The best NFL version of Fields I can imagine carves up blitzing defenses by throwing the ball the majority of the time. I’d think he views it the same way.

I like Fields, just think he needs development time.

[Jetsbb]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

So you, the guy who tried to undress our local JN insiders, takes this “draft Twitter network”article at face value and believes that a team has Wilson ranked number 1, without a proday, private workout or series of interviews. No chance this is related to posturing or just plain bad reporting...

got it. 

Coaches are meeting the scouting department to go over the draft class for the first time this week. This is the time they set their initial board before the workouts and pro days. I undressed a local JN insider after he provided provable false information and then lied when caught. 

[FidelioJet]

6 minutes ago, Flea Flicking Frank said:

I think Fields is going to be the best QB to come out of this draft, does anyone give a rats ass what I think?

I am interested.  Why do you think that?

That's why we're all here.  

[Paradis]

51 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Teams do, in fact, have players ranked before pro days.  It’s a thing that happens and in all likelyhood there are more than one team that have him ranked higher than Lawrence.

Those rankings may certainly change after pro-days and interviews but teams have been rating these guys all season. 

Contrary to belief around here, TL is not a perfect prospect.   Neither is Wilson or Fields - but I can certainly see why a team can see Wilson as the better pro prospect.

Justin Fields >> Trevor Lawrence. 

I was mostly making a point. I’m sure lots of teams have loose grades. Crowning ppl in February is not prophecy worth hanging on to 

[bitonti]

let's assume Miller's source is accurate for the sake of argument

often times these hot takes come from the teams not in the QB market

the Pats under Brady had all sorts of crazy rankings but they never were actually going to act upon these rankings in the draft

 

[JustInFudge]

25 minutes ago, derp said:

It actually shows the opposite of what you think. Holding the ball when teams blitz tends to be a sign of panic, not throwing it.

 

The stat doesnt hold any weight because they asked him to beat the blitz with his legs, not with hot routes or outlets.    Watch the tape, OSU never gave him a check down, ever.  TL and Wilson throw to their backs all the time.

[FidelioJet]

15 minutes ago, bitonti said:

let's assume Miller's source is accurate for the sake of argument

often times these hot takes come from the teams not in the QB market

the Pats under Brady had all sorts of crazy rankings but they never were actually going to act upon these rankings in the draft

 

I'm not sure that has anything to do with anything.

All he's saying is at least one team thinks Wilson is the best QB prospect in the draft.  That is almost certain to be true.

It shouldn't be too difficult for people to accept.

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

This is actually big. Up until now its all been tv analysts who don't know anything. For a actual team with a million scouts with nothing do do all year but watch film all day come away with Zach Wilson as QB1 even over a generational QB tells me Zach Wilson is legit.

No, it's really not.

What this is is source-less speculation designed to drive site-visits and sell media advertising.  There may be truth to it, most likely there is not.

And even if there is a source, it's almost assuredly the typical draft disinformation campaigning all NFL GM's do this time of year.

i.e. it's fluff.  It means less than nothing.  It should not be taken in any way seriously, to either validate or invalidate any opinion.

The Media is Not our Friend.

[Jet2020]

At this point I’m content with Jets taking Wilson and saying goodbye to the 4-win QB Watson. 

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, fullblast said:

What I see is their arms are about equal, but Wilson’s looks stronger because he has a quicker release. He also throws from off-angles without losing any velocity, which also tends to jump off the tape.

I also think that because he’s smaller than Fields the spin he does get on the ball *looks* more impressive.

In my opinion arm strength does not really show on long passes since they have an arc. I personally think you need to look at the deep out, . If you look at the velocity on outs Wilson clearly has more velocity and even threw several outs from the complete opposite hash which in CFB is completely crazy.  On a 10 to 15 yard out that is over 42 yards on a LINE.  Plus he has a faster release. 

[JohnnyLV]

22 minutes ago, Warfish said:

No, it's really not.

What this is is source-less speculation designed to drive site-visits and sell media advertising.  There may be truth to it, most likely there is not.

And even if there is a source, it's almost assuredly the typical draft disinformation campaigning all NFL GM's do this time of year.

i.e. it's fluff.  It means less than nothing.  It should not be taken in any way seriously, to either validate or invalidate any opinion.

The Media is Not our Friend.

If Jeremiah or Scheffter say this then it is likely true. For now consider it wild speculation. But for fun, let's say Jacksonville is the team that likes Wilson better. Do they call us to have us move up 1 slot?

[jetspenguin]

3 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

This is actually big. Up until now its all been tv analysts who don't know anything. For a actual team with a million scouts with nothing do do all year but watch film all day come away with Zach Wilson as QB1 even over a generational QB tells me Zach Wilson is legit.

Or its silly season and the jets put this out to make someone thirsty enough to want to move up to get him..

 

it means nothing.

[Snook]

3 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

This is actually big. Up until now its all been tv analysts who don't know anything. For a actual team with a million scouts with nothing do do all year but watch film all day come away with Zach Wilson as QB1 even over a generational QB tells me Zach Wilson is legit.

Actually 999,999 is more than 1

[derp]

58 minutes ago, JiF said:

The stat doesnt hold any weight because they asked him to beat the blitz with his legs, not with hot routes or outlets.    Watch the tape, OSU never gave him a check down, ever.  TL and Wilson throw to their backs all the time.

Come on JiF. None of that has anything to do with the stat of calculated correctly. You don’t release with your legs, you’re not processing differently than no blitz, and it’s not compared to the other guys. I like him too, at best he doesn’t know how to throw to beat the blitz.

[JustInFudge]

14 minutes ago, derp said:

Come on JiF. None of that has anything to do with the stat of calculated correctly. You don’t release with your legs, you’re not processing differently than no blitz, and it’s not compared to the other guys. I like him too, at best he doesn’t know how to throw to beat the blitz.

He wasnt asked to, that's the point.  So how do you know he doesnt know to?  They didnt give him outlets.  The asked him to evade the pressure with his legs and either get rid of it downfield or run.  Dont know what to tell you but that's the facts.  If you dont think that impacts this stat you've provided, I dont know what to tell you but like, I promise it does, pinky swear? 

That said, it will be a learning curve because he wasnt asked to recognize the blitz put and use a hot route or audible but I dont think this is some trivial thing to pick up that he wont be able to understand (98% of college QB's take their cues from the sidelines).  They all have to get better at this.  He's been playing ball at the highest level since High School. This isnt some dude just learning the position.

[section314]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

He will be the best QB to come out of this draft.

Winning those two games will be the best thing that ever happened to this franchise.

If we do the right thing to support him!

Unless he goes #1, if your prediction is correct.?

[Integrity28]

1 hour ago, 32EBoozer said:

Person in the forefront will always appear bigger in photos. 

Um, yea. That’s what I just described. I think we’re misaligned on how much bigger, if you think depth if field nets out with them being the same size.

Whatever though, I don’t really care.

[section314]

31 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

If Jeremiah or Scheffter say this then it is likely true. For now consider it wild speculation. But for fun, let's say Jacksonville is the team that likes Wilson better. Do they call us to have us move up 1 slot?

Why risk it? Just take him and move on.