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Don't expect the Jets to draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd round


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Just now, Paradis said:

yea maybe obligatory is the better word

The good news is there's a new, hand-picked coaching regime here so there's no reason for Douglas to hold back on providing resources.

There's a lot of reasons why Douglas didn't go all in on OL and WR last offseason.  

 
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Those who are pining for Najee Harris or Travis Etienne out of the 2021 draft class are going to be disappointed.   There are at least 2 major factors working against the possibility of the Jets

We may already have one of those in Ty Johnson. 

I've always thought don't draft a RB in Round 1 unless you have a stacked roster In the Shanny one-cut system it makes less sense than ever, but do invest heavily in OL

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

The good news is there's a new, hand-picked coaching regime here so there's no reason for Douglas to hold back on providing resources.

There's a lot of reasons why Douglas didn't go all in on OL and WR last offseason.  

 

It also may seem silly and obvious, but JD spending time doing due diligence on what kinds of players the coaching staff wants trait-wise is something our past GMs either never did or did it and ignored the findings.

I'd be shocked if we leave this offseason without new interior OL, a TE, and WRs. 

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1 minute ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

It also may seem silly and obvious, but JD spending time doing due diligence on what kinds of players the coaching staff wants trait-wise is something our past GMs either never did or did it and ignored the findings.

I'd be shocked if we leave this offseason without new interior OL, a TE, and WRs. 

Meanwhile, Tannenbaum leaned far too heavily on what the HC wanted, hence why the Rex Ryan Jets saw the roster get run into the ground.

Douglas seems like he'll find a healthy balance between the 2 extremes.

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I completely agree with the premise of the thread title.

That said, the Ravens thing is a little misleading. They had Jamal Lewis who was a very high draft pick, waited a year or two, then drafted Ray Rice in the second round before adjusting to the FA guys (even then they drafted Bernard Pierce in the third round when Rice was slowing down) and then subsequently drafting Dobbins.

37 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

I don't know. 

I'm all for drafting a rb in rd 1. If not rd 1 we better take one in rd 2. This team needs playmakers. And the rb should get 20-30 touches a game. So why not get a stud. I'm not a fan of the rb by committee.  I'd rather have 1 really good back with a change of pace guy than 2 average backs. 

But I do understand why people don't want a 1st rd RB. You can find good value in rds 3-5. For example...

Alvin kamara rd 3, pick 67

Kareem hunt rd 3, pick 86

James Connor rd 3, pick 105

Aaron Jones rd 5 pick 182

David Montgomery rd 3 pick 73

Kenyon drake rd 3 pick 73

 

But all the best rbs are taken in rd 1 or 2. 

 

Saquon barkely rd 1, pick 2

Ezekiel Elliot rd 1, pick 4

Christian McCaffrey rd 1, pick 8

Josh Jacob's rd1, pick 24

Edward's Helaire rd 1 pick 32

Johnathon Taylor rd 2, pick 41

Dalvin cook rd 2, pick 41

Nick chubb rd 2, pick 35

Derrick Henry rd 2, pick 45

Joe Mixon rd 2, pick 48

Melvin Gordon rd 1 pick 15

Miles sanders rd 2 pick 53

 

The second list has a bunch of guys who were pretty disappointing this past year, which is kind of a great example of how much RB's are reliant on their surroundings and prone to injury.

And also why the 20-30 touch a game back you reference is pretty much becoming a dinosaur if it ever even existed. That would be 320-480 touches a year. Literally two players in the entire NFL had over 320 touches last year and they were both under 400. The guy with the tenth most touches in the NFL last year had 248 which is 15.5 per game. 

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20 minutes ago, derp said:

I completely agree with the premise of the thread title.

That said, the Ravens thing is a little misleading. They had Jamal Lewis who was a very high draft pick, waited a year or two, then drafted Ray Rice in the second round before adjusting to the FA guys (even then they drafted Bernard Pierce in the third round when Rice was slowing down) and then subsequently drafting Dobbins.

Jamal Lewis was drafted in the 1st round in 2000, when the NFL was almost a completely different sport than it is today.

In the "Ty Law Rule" era (2005-present), the Ravens have taken the following RB's (we won't count Fullbacks Kyle Juszczyk or Le'Ron McClain, both 4th rounders):

  • P.J. Daniels (2006 - 4th round)
  • Ray Rice (2008 - 2nd round)
  • Allen Patrick (2008 - 7th round)
  • Cedric Peerman (2009 - 6th round) 
  • Anthony Allen (2011 - 7th round)
  • Bernard Pierce (2012 - 3rd round)
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro (2014 - 4th round)
  • Javorious Allen (2015 - 4th round)
  • Kenneth Dixon (2016 - 4th round)
  • Keenan Reynolds (2016 - 6th round)
  • Justice Hill (2019 - 4th round)
  • J.K. Dobbins (2020 - 2nd round)

 

That's 12 RB's.  Two 2nd rounders, one 3rd rounder, and the rest were 4th or later.  That's enough to establish a trend.  

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Those who are pining for Najee Harris or Travis Etienne out of the 2021 draft class are going to be disappointed.  

There are at least 2 major factors working against the possibility of the Jets taking a RB that high.  Not only in this draft class, but in ANY draft class.

1) Joe Douglas

The Ravens and Eagles, Douglas' prior organizations, were never known for taking RB's high until recently, when the 2 franchise took Miles Sanders and J.K. Dobbins, respectively, with 2nd round picks.  While he was in Philadelphia, the Eagles took Donnell Pumphrey in the 4th round of the '17 draft.  Meanwhile, the Ozzie Newsome philosophy in Baltimore was to build up the trenches and look for RB's at bargain prices in the draft and free agency.  Douglas' philosophy is similar, and the La'Mical Perine pick last draft continued to demonstrate it.  

2) Kyle Shanahan and the one-cut RB

The last time the 49ers used a high pick on a RB was Carlos Hyde, a 2nd rounder in 2014.  That was 3 years prior to Shanahan's hiring in San Francisco.  Under his leadership, the 49ers have drafted exactly one RB:  Joe Williams, with the 121st overall pick (4th round) in 2017.  Jeff Wilson was a 2018 UDFA.  The other investments at RB all been veteran acquisitions, including Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman.

The 49ers system under Shanahan has always preferred the use of one-cut RB's, and that system has arrived in NY.  The biggest advantage of the system is is does not require heavy investments at RB to work.  The plus side of this is that RB's who disappointed under prior systems might find success here; Perine being a potential beneficiary who is already on the roster, along with a promising talent in Ty Johnson.  

With the Jets becoming 49ers East, don't expect a high pick on a RB any time soon.  

Personally I’m not averse to to the ‘select rb later rather than sooner’ philosophy but in that case you need to keep the position churning, so drafting Perine last year shouldn’t preclude us dipping again at the position in April from rd 3 through 5....possibly even double-dip and add a decent stable. All depends on moves in FA, I can see us looking to add McKinnon or Marlon Mack (maybe even both) who along with Adams & Ty Johnson give us plenty of decent options. It’s also worth bearing in mind that we might be looking to add a FB considering how key Kyle Jusczyzk was in San Fran.

 

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17 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

You'll be ok, once you find out that JD will never trade what it's going to take to get Watson. If there is a trade it will be on his terms not Houston's.

This doesn't reduce the likelihood of it happening.  The # 2 pick is the prize for Houston.  Houston knows it and Douglas knows it.  Douglas will wait this out and Houston will eventually come calling for it.

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3 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

Personally I’m not averse to to the ‘select rb later rather than sooner’ philosophy but in that case you need to keep the position churning, so drafting Perine last year shouldn’t preclude us dipping again at the position in April from rd 3 through 5....possibly even double-dip and add a decent stable. All depends on moves in FA, I can see us looking to add McKinnon or Marlon Mack (maybe even both) who along with Adams & Ty Johnson give us plenty of decent options. It’s also worth bearing in mind that we might be looking to add a FB considering how key Kyle Jusczyzk was in San Fran.

 

Absolutely.  All I ruled out with this thread was the Jets using a 1st or 2nd rounder at RB.  With the plethora of mid-round picks the Jets have this year (with more to come, potentially), a RB in the 3rd-5th seems probable.  

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1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

Gainwell in the 3rd would work for me. 

To early. Bigger fish to fry.  Our two 3rd's - OL and WR. But I like him in the 4th. He's a dual threat. But he's aslo similar to Ty Johnson.  Be nice to get a beast RB like Trey Sermon to compliment Josh Adams, Ty and Perine.  I really liked what I saw from Josh Adams.  Big ND fan and he was premier there. He looks totally different and is much leaner, quicker and was exploding through holes last year.  Could be a real find if given the chance.

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1 hour ago, rex-n-effect said:

Fans wanting players to be drafted isn't the same as the front office drafting them. My question was directed to why people would think any front office in the league is seriously considering picking an RB in the first round in this draft.

It's a worthwhile question.  But it stands to reason it'll happen in this draft given that front offices keep doing it nearly every year (17 times since 2010, with very mixed results):

  • 2020:  Clyde Edwards-Helaire (# 32 - KC)
  • 2019:  Josh Jacobs (# 24 - OAK)
  • 2018:  Saquon Barkley (# 2 - NYG)
  • 2018:  Rashaad Penny (# 27 - SEA)
  • 2018:  Sony Michel (# 32 - NE)
  • 2017:  Leonard Fournette (# 4 - JAX)
  • 2017:  Christian McCaffrey (# 8 - CAR)
  • 2016:  Ezekiel Elliott (# 4 - DAL)
  • 2015:  Todd Gurley (# 10 - STL)
  • 2015:  Melvin Gordon (# 15 - SD)
  • 2012:  Trent Richardson (# 3 - CLE)
  • 2012:  Doug Martin (# 31 - TB)
  • 2012:  David Wilson (# 32 - NYG)
  • 2011:  Mark Ingram (# 28 - NO)
  • 2010:  C.J. Spiller (# 9 - BUF)
  • 2010:  Ryan Mathews (# 12 - SD)
  • 2010:  Jahvid Best (# 30 - DET)
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15 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

To early. Bigger fish to fry.  Our two 3rd's - OL and WR. But I like him in the 4th. He's a dual threat. But he's aslo similar to Ty Johnson.  Be nice to get a beast RB like Trey Sermon to compliment Josh Adams, Ty and Perine.  I really liked what I saw from Josh Adams.  Big ND fan and he was premier there. He looks totally different and is much leaner, quicker and was exploding through holes last year.  Could be a real find if given the chance.

It’s never too early to win games. Gainwell is a game winning type playmaker. 

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11 minutes ago, Paradis said:

It’s never too early to win games. Gainwell is a game winning type playmaker. 

I agree, I chose him in the 4th in a mock but how many RB's are going to be on the roster? Ty and Adams showed me enough to be on the team. And we spent a pick on Perine and he was barely used.  Saleh may implement a FB as well into the offense.  A guy like Trey Sermon would be great since he's a beast.  

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47 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Jamal Lewis was drafted in the 1st round in 2000, when the NFL was almost a completely different sport than it is today.

In the "Ty Law Rule" era (2005-present), the Ravens have taken the following RB's (we won't count Fullbacks Kyle Juszczyk or Le'Ron McClain, both 4th rounders):

  • P.J. Daniels (2006 - 4th round)
  • Ray Rice (2008 - 2nd round)
  • Allen Patrick (2008 - 7th round)
  • Cedric Peerman (2009 - 6th round) 
  • Anthony Allen (2011 - 7th round)
  • Bernard Pierce (2012 - 3rd round)
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro (2014 - 4th round)
  • Javorious Allen (2015 - 4th round)
  • Kenneth Dixon (2016 - 4th round)
  • Keenan Reynolds (2016 - 6th round)
  • Justice Hill (2019 - 4th round)
  • J.K. Dobbins (2020 - 2nd round)

 

That's 12 RB's.  Two 2nd rounders, one 3rd rounder, and the rest were 4th or later.  That's enough to establish a trend.  

The point was that they didn’t need to draft a running back early before 2007 because they had Lewis and then again before 2013 because they had Rice. Everyone on the first half of that list besides Rice was drafted to be a backup - including Pierce in the third round.

To me the tendency was to draft someone high, ride them out, and then replace them. That failed with Pierce who they really drafted as a supplement to Rice before he fell off a cliff and then off field got himself kicked out of the league. They tried and failed with mid round guys a lot, then did the FA thing, then went back to the draft with Dobbins.

Realistically it’s a small sample size thing that I think can be interpreted either way, I just lean towards the old school Ravens valuing RB’s. You could also argue Rice fell into their laps and they didn’t value RB’s and it’s totally valid - but they hit on 2 guys that covered over ten years for them so they didn’t have to draft them high a bunch even if they would’ve.

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44 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

I agree, I chose him in the 4th in a mock but how many RB's are going to be on the roster? Ty and Adams showed me enough to be on the team. And we spent a pick on Perine and he was barely used.  Saleh may implement a FB as well into the offense.  A guy like Trey Sermon would be great since he's a beast.  

I like Sermon.

Personally, I think gainwell is more likely to go in the 2nd then the 4th. He’s too dynamic. He won’t last…  Ty Johnson looks to have the bandwidth for more, but Adams is the definition of a JAG, and although I was a Perine fan in college I’m concerned at how little He was able to do last year. starting to look like his brother; physically outmatched at this level. 

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19 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I like Sermon.

Personally, I think gainwell is more likely to go in the 2nd then the 4th. He’s too dynamic. He won’t last…  Ty Johnson looks to have the bandwidth for more, but Adams is the definition of a JAG, and although I was a Perine fan in college I’m concerned at how little He was able to do last year. starting to look like his brother; physically outmatched at this level. 

Adams had one of the highest YPC averages last year.  I'd love to see what he can do.   Gainwell and Johnson are both small. Cant have 2 RB's that size. 

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1 hour ago, Wonderboy said:

To early. Bigger fish to fry.  Our two 3rd's - OL and WR. But I like him in the 4th. He's a dual threat. But he's aslo similar to Ty Johnson.  Be nice to get a beast RB like Trey Sermon to compliment Josh Adams, Ty and Perine.  I really liked what I saw from Josh Adams.  Big ND fan and he was premier there. He looks totally different and is much leaner, quicker and was exploding through holes last year.  Could be a real find if given the chance.

None of the RBs on the roster are worth a damn. Adams was great at ND but not in the NFL. 

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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Those who are pining for Najee Harris or Travis Etienne out of the 2021 draft class are going to be disappointed.  

2) Kyle Shanahan and the one-cut RB

The last time the 49ers used a high pick on a RB was Carlos Hyde, a 2nd rounder in 2014.  That was 3 years prior to Shanahan's hiring in San Francisco.  Under his leadership, the 49ers have drafted exactly one RB:  Joe Williams, with the 121st overall pick (4th round) in 2017.  Jeff Wilson was a 2018 UDFA.  The other investments at RB all been veteran acquisitions, including Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman.

The 49ers system under Shanahan has always preferred the use of one-cut RB's, and that system has arrived in NY.  The biggest advantage of the system is is does not require heavy investments at RB to work.  The plus side of this is that RB's who disappointed under prior systems might find success here; Perine being a potential beneficiary who is already on the roster, along with a promising talent in Ty Johnson.  

With the Jets becoming 49ers East, don't expect a high pick on a RB any time soon.  

It won't break my heart if we dont, but keep in mind how much they paid Jerik McKinnon as one of their first signings after Shanny became head coach. It wasn't like they intentionally avoided RB. I only remember cause I drafted the dude after week 3 of the preseason in the 3rd round of fantasy excited to see him in that system. ACL got shredded in a non contract practice the next day. I wouldn't mind grabbing one in round 2 and seeing what they could do plugged into this system 

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8 minutes ago, SayNoToDMC said:

It won't break my heart if we dont, but keep in mind how much they paid Jerik McKinnon as one of their first signings after Shanny became head coach. It wasn't like they intentionally avoided RB. I only remember cause I drafted the dude after week 3 of the preseason in the 3rd round of fantasy excited to see him in that system. ACL got shredded in a non contract practice the next day. I wouldn't mind grabbing one in round 2 and seeing what they could do plugged into this system 

This is probably the lesson learned for Shanahan as to not putting all their eggs in one basket.  Last year they played 4 different RBs with significant playing time due to injury but also because they rode the hot hand for many of their games as well as exploited match ups based on skillset.  Wilson was their leading rusher but was seldom a starter.  Wilson was also their worst receiving back.  McKinnon was their pass catching back but wasn't used so often in the running game.  Mostert was a stud when he played but was limited due to injury.  The 49ers did face a lot of injuries last year but they also used their RBs to the best of their abilities and did not force players into roles they were not fit for.  

I could see the Jets implementing something similar for next year.  See what they have in Perine, Johnson and Adams as they all bring different skills to the table.  Add in a cheap veteran that is familiar with the system as a mentor (Coleman, McKinnon) and could start the season while the others get up to speed..  Jamaal Williams might be a little too expensive.   Then grab a mid/late round or UDFA similar to McHasty, Wilson or Mostert to try to find a gem.  

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9 minutes ago, Wonderboy said:

Adams had one of the highest YPC averages last year.  I'd love to see what he can do.   Gainwell and Johnson are both small. Cant have 2 RB's that size. 

Well in my world we sign Juzsczyk, draft Gainwell/Carter - sign McCrary as an UDFA then have Adams/Perine/Johnson compete with them in TC. that’s the Shanny way. 

I think Adams numbers were inflated from late game usage. 

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7 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Well in my world we sign Juzsczyk, draft Gainwell/Carter - sign McCrary as an UDFA then have Adams/Perine/Johnson compete with them in TC. that’s the Shanny way. 

I think Adams numbers were inflated from late game usage. 

I still got 3 seasons of As the World Turns to catch up on before I can get to The World According to Paradis.

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4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If this show happened....

 

shut up and take my money GIF

 

Brought to you by Pink Crocs, undoubtedly. 

Well @Wonderboy, you offered your Adams take as though it was steeped in anything resembling prudence, so I wanted to match that energy.

All in the Paradis - reality show would be a smash hit. too many kids, too many women, too much drugs and too much football. A total trainwreck waiting to happen.

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