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Rich Cimini: Jets should keep Sam Darnold


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Big Dick has spoken! On his Flight Deck Podcast he listed 10 reasons the Jets should keep Sam Darnold.  Here are his nuggets 1) Jets front office think there is a huge gap  between Lawrence

Well, I'd guess she's pretty strongly opposed to drafting Fields.

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16 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Pauline, on that draft network YouTube channel, just said that he thinks hanging on to Darnold is too risky for Douglas since it’d likely end up burning another year of Douglas’ regime, presuming Darnold doesn’t pull a 180. Pauline is of the belief that Douglas should move Darnold and start fresh.

Also said that the Jets are going to be aggressive in free agency, and Trey Hendrickson is a primary target. 
 

Also said that the Panthers are going to go hard after Watson, but the Jets are still likely in pole position, and that the Dolphins might be satisfied to sit at 3 and just take Jamar Chase. 

i agree.

so if JD is going to start fresh at QB wouldnt it make sense to go hard for Watson? fill the most important and hardest position to fill with the 3rd best player at that position in the league. instead of rolling the dice on a rookie QB who nobody seams sure as to who is the 2nd best.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Grandy said:

B-but you're missing the part where Adam Gase forced him at gunpoint to throw off his backfoot into double coverage.

Plus, you're forgetting that Gase hypnotized Darnold into forgetting how to read an NFL defense as well as giving him supplements which rendered him unable to see open receivers or throw the ball more than 10 yards accurately.

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1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

I asked first, which 3rd overall pick, as highly thought of as Sam was handed Berrios an Hogan as WRs, no running game, a sieve of an OL and a leader like Gase?  When you come up with a comparable then we can compare.  I don’t see one.

One more time.  I want to move on.  I’m also understanding of the thoughts behind keeping him and our picks, building an offense.  Can’t figure out what you’re trying to convince me if.  I get the reasons for moving on

The problem with citing Berrios & Hogan:

  • he didn't regularly have that hardship from his first game as a rookie to his last in 2020
  • it's not like there was some night & day difference when he had his full WR corps
  • That also ignores that Berrios, while not an all-pro talent, actually played pretty well in his couple starts. I wouldn't therefore rely upon him to start 16 games because of it, but it's not like all he did was trip over his own feet, get easily blanketed by every DB & take 4 seconds to get any separation, and then repeatedly drop easy passes that hit him in the numbers. 

A more damning look is how WR starters other than those two did before & after Sam, and/or with/without Sam. And I'm not talking about with Luke Falk; the argument was never that Falk should be the team's FQB.

  • Anderson before, with, and after Sam is the most damning; even more so when one factors in it's not like the QBs before & after Darnold (McCown & Bridgewater) were such ace gunslingers themselves.
  • Or even Perriman (with Darnold vs. with Winston/Flacco) of late. He's totally unreliable but when he was on the field for a starter-number of snaps the past couple years, his without Darnold dwarfed those with him. 
  • Ditto Crowder, comparing to his numbers with Cousins & Alex Smith, not with the trash QBs (Josh Johnson / McCoy / Sanchez) in for Alex Smith when Crowder came back from his 7-8 week ankle injury. 

All of them are worse on the receiving end of Darnold's passes. It's upsetting; we all wanted Sam to be great, like we finally we got lucky & we got one. And no one is happy to see that he's been mostly terrible, even grading on a curve with the challenging situations he's been in. 

It's not his physical tools that primarily concern anyone. To illustrate that point, Geno Smith had (and probably still has) the necessary physical tools, too, so it takes a lot more than that. The mental mistakes don't paint the picture of a QB about to bust out and become a top 10 QB, let alone the top 3-5 QB he was drafted to be. That's regardless of the fill-in receivers when 2 (or even 3) starters were down.

If he was awesome other than the Berrios/Hogan games, no one would blame him any more than people are blaming Mahomes while under that relentless pressure in the SB.

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We should build a team and run Darnold back.

I was all in to dump Sam for Lawrence, the kind of prospect that you can only get this year, if we were in a position to get him.

But I feel like you can get a prospect like a Fields or a Wilson just about any year, and we have a lot of holes. Use the picks and the cap, start filling holes, and see if Darnold really is a bust. If you do it right, at least you're bringing your 2022 or 2023 version of Fields or Wilson into a good situation.

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2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

The Drew Brees comparison is so intellectually dishonest.

Brees played very well in his fourth year in the league, but it was his 3rd year actually playing, and only 27 prior starts.  Sam Darnold has played 3 years, was a disaster in year 3, and had a similar 26 prior starts leading into the year.

So, after 26/27 starts, Brees went 11-4, throwing for 3100 yards, 65% completion, and 27 TDs to 7 INTs while Sam went 2-10 throwing for 2200 yards, 59% completion, and 9 TDs to 11 INTs, and is PFF's worst QB in the NFL and 2nd worst when removing throws under pressure.

Not to mention Brees was doing this 16 years ago when it was infinitely harder to play QB.

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21 minutes ago, isired said:

We should build a team and run Darnold back.

I was all in to dump Sam for Lawrence, the kind of prospect that you can only get this year, if we were in a position to get him.

But I feel like you can get a prospect like a Fields or a Wilson just about any year, and we have a lot of holes. Use the picks and the cap, start filling holes, and see if Darnold really is a bust. If you do it right, at least you're bringing your 2022 or 2023 version of Fields or Wilson into a good situation.

 

Darnold being here makes it harder to "build a team".  FA Wide receivers won't want to come here without a massive overpay.  And Darnold's suckage makes it difficult to properly evaluate the talent you already have.  

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Darnold being here makes it harder to "build a team".  FA Wide receivers won't want to come here without a massive overpay.  And Darnold's suckage makes it difficult to properly evaluate the talent you already have.  

If they stick with darnold they’re going to have to build that offense themselves without relying on FA.  They will not get any worthwhile wrs, so they’re going to have to use multiple top picks to get them.  Getting offensive linemen will result in paying too much as well.

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6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Darnold being here makes it harder to "build a team".  FA Wide receivers won't want to come here without a massive overpay.  And Darnold's suckage makes it difficult to properly evaluate the talent you already have.  

Free agent WR's are lining up at the gate at Florham Park to play with a QB who threw for 2208 yards 9 TD's and 11 INT's 

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1 hour ago, DetroitRed said:

Nice googling.

How does the analysis differentiate between age and number of starts, or total attempts, when arriving at its conclusion?

How does the analysis control for the fact that only good QBs age?  As, young QBs who don't improve don't stick around (unless you're a Jets QB, of course).

Spoiler alert: It doesn't.  In fact, it even offers:

an "experience curve" looks roughly the same as an aging curve

1 hour ago, DetroitRed said:

That was for anyone who thinks age and progression completely unrelated 

Unfortunately, there's no evidence to support a Sam Darnold improvement out of worst in the league vis-a-vis another birthday, despite your attempt to sell his age as somehow relevant.

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I feel like all this can be true, but it seems like 90% of scouting is doing CYA work regarding your previous ****-ups and Fields has to overcome all of that. I have no doubt he’s smart and talented, but he’s going to be weighed down by the Haskins failures and being attached to Urban and Day. 

What does that say about the scouting community then?

- Fields wasnt attached to Urban more then anyone else in the country.  Everyone recruited Fields. Everyone.  He committed to Kirby Smart.  

- Haskins was the 3rd QB off the board, he went 15.  We're talking about Fields being worthy of #2 overall

- Christian Ponder didnt turn the Bills off of EJ Manuel, etc.

- They're totally different athletes with totally different characters. 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

What does that say about the scouting community then?

- Fields wasnt attached to Urban more then anyone else in the country.  Everyone recruited Fields. Everyone.  He committed to Kirby Smart.  

- Haskins was the 3rd QB off the board, he went 15.  We're talking about Fields being worthy of #2 overall

- Christian Ponder didnt turn the Bills off of EJ Manuel, etc.

- They're totally different athletes with totally different characters. 

I think it would say that a lot of scouting is lazy and risk-averse.

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2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

Nice googling.

How does the analysis differentiate between age and number of starts, or total attempts, when arriving at its conclusion?

How does the analysis control for the fact that only good QBs age?  As, young QBs who don't improve don't stick around (unless you're a Jets QB, of course).

Spoiler alert: It doesn't.  In fact, it even offers:

an "experience curve" looks roughly the same as an aging curve

Unfortunately, there's no evidence to support a Sam Darnold improvement out of worst in the league vis-a-vis another birthday, despite your attempt to sell his age as somehow relevant.

Roughly is the key word.  And not all Qbs will have the same curve or development.  The idea that age is a complete non factor is mindless

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7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The problem with citing Berrios & Hogan:

The reason I cited Berrios and Hogan was to illustrate how little help Darnold was handed.  3 years in as the third overall pick, hoping to develop the kid into a FQB this is the dreck he had to work with.  Not one single QB in the league, on any team I remember had this little to work with.  Its sad, not only for the obvious reasons but how are you supposed to get an idea of what Sam has when he doesnt have anyone who can prove he is or isnt a QB.

7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:
  • Anderson before, with, and after Sam is the most damning; even more so when one factors in it's not like the QBs before & after Darnold (McCown & Bridgewater) were such ace gunslingers themselves.
  • Or even Perriman (with Darnold vs. with Winston/Flacco) of late. He's totally unreliable but when he was on the field for a starter-number of snaps the past couple years, his without Darnold dwarfed those with him. 
  • Ditto Crowder, comparing to his numbers with Cousins & Alex Smith, not with the trash QBs (Josh Johnson / McCoy / Sanchez) in for Alex Smith when Crowder came back from his 7-8 week ankle injury. 

Perriman with Evans, Godwin etc and Arians vs Perriman & company with the Jets and Gase?  Its a level playing field?  With any of these scenarios?  

Crowders best years?  No difference between Wash and Jets.  847 yards, 67 catches with 7 TDs vs.  833 yards, 78 catches with 6 TDs?  

Ultimately none of this proves anything anyway.  Playing QB is even with the best of QB a group effort.  You need an OL, WRs, TB and a HC.  If the QB with enough of those talents in his arsenal has the talent to utilize them he'll succeed.  All the talent in the world isnt going to overcome a lack at every single one of those.  Darnold never had any, never mind some of those talents at his disposal.  Not making excuses, just have no idea if things could or would have been different if he was given the support any and every other draftee gets but also dont understand how anyone can sit here and say without a doubt that it wouldnt have made a difference.  

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10 hours ago, TeddEY said:

The Drew Brees comparison is so intellectually dishonest.

Brees played very well in his fourth year in the league, but it was his 3rd year actually playing, and only 27 prior starts.  Sam Darnold has played 3 years, was a disaster in year 3, and had a similar 26 prior starts leading into the year.

So, after 26/27 starts, Brees went 11-4, throwing for 3100 yards, 65% completion, and 27 TDs to 7 INTs while Sam went 2-10 throwing for 2200 yards, 59% completion, and 9 TDs to 11 INTs, and is PFF's worst QB in the NFL and 2nd worst when removing throws under pressure.

Are you ignoring the fact Brees had a HOF RB and HOF TE playing with him? He played significantly better when Gates was on the team that’s not a coincidence.

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10 hours ago, Welp said:

Are you ignoring the fact Brees had a HOF RB and HOF TE playing with him? He played significantly better when Gates was on the team that’s not a coincidence.

I am.  Because, adding weapons does not mean a soon to be first ballot hall of famer is a good comparison to the leagues current worst QB.

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1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

I am.  Because, adding weapons does not mean a soon to be first ballot hall of famer is a good comparison to the leagues current worst QB.

Except Brees wasn’t a first ballot hall of gamer going into his 4th season. The Chargers drafted Eli and traded for Rivers that’s how much faith they had in him.

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15 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

The reason I cited Berrios and Hogan was to illustrate how little help Darnold was handed.  3 years in as the third overall pick, hoping to develop the kid into a FQB this is the dreck he had to work with.  Not one single QB in the league, on any team I remember had this little to work with.  Its sad, not only for the obvious reasons but how are you supposed to get an idea of what Sam has when he doesnt have anyone who can prove he is or isnt a QB.

Perriman with Evans, Godwin etc and Arians vs Perriman & company with the Jets and Gase?  Its a level playing field?  With any of these scenarios?  

Crowders best years?  No difference between Wash and Jets.  847 yards, 67 catches with 7 TDs vs.  833 yards, 78 catches with 6 TDs?  

Ultimately none of this proves anything anyway.  Playing QB is even with the best of QB a group effort.  You need an OL, WRs, TB and a HC.  If the QB with enough of those talents in his arsenal has the talent to utilize them he'll succeed.  All the talent in the world isnt going to overcome a lack at every single one of those.  Darnold never had any, never mind some of those talents at his disposal.  Not making excuses, just have no idea if things could or would have been different if he was given the support any and every other draftee gets but also dont understand how anyone can sit here and say without a doubt that it wouldnt have made a difference.  

The problem is it isn't even close. It's not like, "Welllll, this receiver averaged another 10 yards per game with better coaching & a different QB"...

I'm saying even accounting for his hardship scenario, he's been well outside that fudge-factor.

And those are just the numbers. He doesn't pass the eye test when he's looking right at open receivers and misses them (or throws to a different/covered receiver, or ffs doesn't even throw it at all). And this is wide open receivers, regardless of the names on their jersey, and when he's had ample time to throw. 

No one's bragging about the Jets' OL, but it's also totally inaccurate that every game he's under relentless pressure, because he clearly isn't. The difference between his TTT and most others is a quarter of a second or less; that's an uphill battle to suggest that would have made him an above average QB rather than among the very worst. And as bad as Gase was (and I agree he sucks), Darnold was so far below other QBs Gase has coached that it's also outside the margin of error. 

There is no such thing as proving, since there is no such thing as an equal split test. Every game is with different players, different opponents, different weather, different game situations, etc. 

He could turn things around suddenly. Absolutely. But based on what we've seen of him on the field, and the historic occurrences of that huge of a happening in the modern era, that's a low percentage bet. Like single-digit percentage. 

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2 minutes ago, Welp said:

Except Brees wasn’t a first ballot hall of gamer going into his 4th season. The Chargers drafted Eli and traded for Rivers that’s how much faith they had in him.

What's your point?  That we should be aggressive like the Chargers and draft another QB (after 27 starts) when the one you have has failed to demonstrate he can play?  Rather than just give another year to the worst QB in the NFL over 38 starts?

That sounds like a good idea.

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The problem is it isn't even close. It's not like, "Welllll, this WR averaged another 10 yards per game with better coaching"...

I'm saying even accounting for his hardship scenario, he's been well outside that fudge-factor.

And those are just the numbers. He doesn't pass the eye test when he's looking right at open receivers and misses them (or throws to a different/covered receiver, or ffs doesn't even throw it at all). And this is wide open receivers, regardless of the names on their jersey, and when he's had ample time to throw. 

No one's bragging about the Jets' OL, but it's also totally inaccurate that every game he's under relentless pressure, because he clearly isn't. The difference between his TTT and most others is a quarter of a second or less; that's an uphill battle to suggest that would have made him an above average QB rather than among the very worst. And as bad as Gase was (and I agree he sucks), Darnold was so far below other QBs Gase has coached that it's also outside the margin of error. 

There is no such thing as proving, since there is no such thing as an equal split test. Every game is with different players, different opponents, different weather, different game situations, etc. 

He could turn things around suddenly. Absolutely. But based on what we've seen of him on the field, and the historic occurrences of that huge of a happening in the modern era, that's a low percentage bet. Like single-digit percentage. 

Here’s the thing.  It proves nothing.  You can make or disagree with all the reasons people throw out there for his issues and lack of development.  It’s impossible to prove.  I’ve never seen a young QB put in this poor a situation, there’s nothing to compare this to.  We can speculate or argue against what he would or could have done under Andy Reid and those weapons. 

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21 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Not to mention Brees was doing this 16 years ago when it was infinitely harder to play QB.

Brees also had a HOF tight end (Gates) and a HOF running back (LT).

That being said, I lived in SD, then.  You could see Brees becoming a good player.  You just don't see that with Sam.

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15 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Here’s the thing.  It proves nothing.  You can make or disagree with all the reasons people throw out there for his issues and lack of development.  It’s impossible to prove.  I’ve never seen a young QB put in this poor a situation, there’s nothing to compare this to.  We can speculate or argue against what he would or could have done under Andy Reid and those weapons. 

It makes a strong case. Darnold's not even in the ballpark. 

Proof is not possible in comparing any players in history, so that's not really saying much. To illustrate using an extreme, I couldn't prove that I wouldn't get struck by lightning if I swapped cars with you. Or prove that Hackenberg wouldn't have been an all-pro if Andy Reid drafted him. You can't. See what I mean?

If Darnold was kinda-sorta ok but was just taking a beating, and no one else looked any better, and his allegedly-substandard cast wasn't so clearly more successful elsewhere - including his dumbass HC - it'd be a better argument imo.

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10 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It makes a strong case. Darnold's not even in the ballpark. 

Proof is not possible in comparing any players in history, so that's not really saying much. To illustrate using an extreme, I couldn't prove that I wouldn't get struck by lightning if I swapped cars with you. Or prove that Hackenberg wouldn't have been an all-pro if Andy Reid drafted him. You can't. See what I mean?

If Darnold was kinda-sorta ok but was just taking a beating, and no one else looked any better, and his allegedly-substandard cast wasn't so clearly more successful elsewhere - including his dumbass HC - it'd be a better argument imo.

I agree no one knows if a QB who most thought was shot like Chad in 08 who takes the 1-15 Fins to the playoffs or Rich Gannon who didn't do much of anything for 10+ years then goes to the Raiders makes 5 pro bowls All Pro twice and takes the Raiders to the Bowl.. I do think if Mahomes came to the Jets he wouldn't be the QB he is.. Hell look what happened when he was missing 2 starting linemen in the Bowl..

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16 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

I agree no one knows if a QB who most thought was shot like Chad in 08 who takes the 1-15 Fins to the playoffs or Rich Gannon who didn't do much of anything for 10+ years then goes to the Raiders makes 5 pro bowls All Pro twice and takes the Raiders to the Bowl.. I do think if Mahomes came to the Jets he wouldn't be the QB he is.. Hell look what happened when he was missing 2 starting linemen in the Bowl..

No one says he would be. 

I think one would need more evidence than Darnold's sucked so far and the KC SB OL to make a credible claim that Mahomes would be nearly as bad. 

Again, if the only outlier games were if/when Darnold was playing with two backup tackles - not 2 OLmen in general, because many QBs deal with 2 injuries on the OL; specifically two backup tackles up against two serious edge rushers - then any reasonable fan would just remove that from the equation; never mind that there would be no major support for moving on from a healthy Darnold. 

Mahomes had to deal with 2+ backup OLmen in the playoffs before the SB. Fisher was just merely the latest. Here's his OL:

  • LT   Mike Remmers                 Replaced Schwartz at RT in Week 7 (was let go 5 prior times; makes backup money)
  • LG  Nick Allegretti                   Drafted in 7th round in 2019 (meh to say the least)
  • C    Austin Reiter                     Drafted in 7th round in 2015 (waived 4x since being drafted)
  • RG  Stefen Wisniewski           Waived by Steelers on November 9; was on & off KC's PS until later Dec.
  • RT  Andrew Wylie                    RG this season (UDFA in 2017 & then waived by Indianapolis; is worse than meh)

That's not merely "missing 2 starting linemen" by any means. It's a worse OL than the Jets have fielded in memory, which is saying something.

Once Schwartz went down, KC basically had 1 even-average OLman all season long: Fisher, who's excellent. Once he went down vs Buffalo they were effectively left with an OL of 5 backup-level starters to match up against Tampa's D. 

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It makes a strong case. Darnold's not even in the ballpark. 

Proof is not possible in comparing any players in history, so that's not really saying much. To illustrate using an extreme, I couldn't prove that I wouldn't get struck by lightning if I swapped cars with you. Or prove that Hackenberg wouldn't have been an all-pro if Andy Reid drafted him. You can't. See what I mean?

If Darnold was kinda-sorta ok but was just taking a beating, and no one else looked any better, and his allegedly-substandard cast wasn't so clearly more successful elsewhere - including his dumbass HC - it'd be a better argument imo.

If I was comparing him to anyone it would be Joey Harrington.  Detroit  traded him to Miami for a 5th and signed John Kitna to take over for him after drafting him at 3.

Both Phil Sims and Troy Aikman defended him and called Detroit the problem.  Simms actually said a QB can't overcome bad coaching and bad players.  Marino sort of defended Harrington but not to the same vain as Simms and Aikman.  Some of the Detroit players blamed Harrington for the dismissal of Marruci.  

It can be true that Gase sucked, the Jets didn't give Sam enough weapons and protection and Sam actually doesn't have what it takes.  

My favorite quote on a Draft profile ever:  Summary: Great intangibles and a super kid, but he does not have David Carr’s arm strength and is not John Elway, but he could be slightly more gifted than Tom Brady and will be a first-round pick.

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What's your point?  That we should be aggressive like the Chargers and draft another QB (after 27 starts) when the one you have has failed to demonstrate he can play?  Rather than just give another year to the worst QB in the NFL over 38 starts?
That sounds like a good idea.
You realize Darnold is Brees in this scenario, right? Let's hope we don't let go of the wrong guy too.
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12 minutes ago, isired said:


 

You realize Darnold is Brees in this scenario, right? Let's hope we don't let go of the wrong guy too.

I mean, sure - in this completely made up scenario that has no basis in reality he's Drew Brees.

Unfortunately, on earth, Sam Darnold is, after starting 3 years and 38 games, the NFL's worst QB.

I'd be happy to have the Brees/Rivers problem, which, may have gone very differently had Brees not gotten hurt, if you'll recall.  And, frankly, still wasn't so bad a Rivers was a perennial top tier QB.

Unfortunately, again, on earth, we're closer to the Christian Hackenberg problem, and you all want to draft Jamal Adams again.

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