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Nightmare scenario: What does JD do in the draft and free agency if Deshaun Watson ends up in Miami?


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1 hour ago, chad2coles said:

Rodgers had a full season at age 25. 
 

watson has been as productive as pretty much any 25 year old qb in league history and he’s done it behind a terrible oline every year. 

4-12 productive?

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There was a time when we had Marino and Kelly in our division. Talk about a nightmare. In my opinion, should that happen, you create a balanced football team. Keep SD, trade back and get as much smart

If the Jets make a fair offer for Watson and he ends up in Miami, so be it. But if we're looking for a template to model, it's not Miami's, it's Buffalo's.  Buffalo did a great job evaluating All

Does that mean we are waiting for them both to retire before we try to compete? 

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1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Kind of my point, Rodgers had a season under his belt at 25.  Comparing his numbers to Watsons at 25 is pointless.  Watson has 3.5 seasons of numbers by the same age

And 3 of those seasons he had Deandre Hopkins

 

Good player, but he’s not Rodgers level it’s nuts even comparing them

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9 hours ago, Philc1 said:

And 3 of those seasons he had Deandre Hopkins

 

Good player, but he’s not Rodgers level it’s nuts even comparing them

Yeah, so lets hold that against him.  Especially when he didnt have him for 3 seasons.

And led the league in passing without him in 2020.  If youre actually trying to say he was only productive because of Hopkins, I have no idea what youre watching

 

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On 2/26/2021 at 4:57 PM, New York Mick said:

That’s not what I asked. When was the last time a big trade work out for the team trading away picks?

It’s an irrelevant question, since this is historically unprecedented.  Thus, comparing it to past trades makes no sense.  

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4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

4-12 productive?

his numbers were.

but if the team record is important to you then we better not sign any FA from losing teams cause there not worth it in your opinion? right? thats why you and others keep bringing up that ONE season at 4-12. 

i guess Joe Thuney is off the list. NE won 6 games. not very productive. 

does Allen Robinson make the cut? Chicago won only 8 games.

 

 

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On 2/26/2021 at 4:57 PM, New York Mick said:

That’s not what I asked. When was the last time a big trade work out for the team trading away picks?

there has only been 2 trades like that in the NFL and they were for Walker and Rickey Williams.  both RBs not the 3rd QB in the NFL.

they work out in baseball all the time. off the top of my head Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter. and Lindor will become another one if they can sign him long term. 

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On 2/26/2021 at 8:49 PM, nycdan said:

Well the Bucs traded a 1st round pick for Revis and 8 years later...Super Bowl!

Bazinga!

Tampa traded 4 1sts and 2 2nds for Keyshawn and Gruden and then won their first SB. Keyshawn also got a giant contract from Tampa after the trade. 

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3 hours ago, doitny said:

his numbers were.

but if the team record is important to you then we better not sign any FA from losing teams cause there not worth it in your opinion? right? thats why you and others keep bringing up that ONE season at 4-12. 

i guess Joe Thuney is off the list. NE won 6 games. not very productive. 

does Allen Robinson make the cut? Chicago won only 8 games.

 

 

Your boy Watson won a grand total two more games than Sam with a better roster and coaching staff

 

Yes, QBs affect wins and losses

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On 2/26/2021 at 4:57 PM, New York Mick said:

That’s not what I asked. When was the last time a big trade work out for the team trading away picks?

There arent too many big trades in the NFL.  They dont happen often.  Who was the last big name player traded?  Ramsey to the Rams?  He led the Rams D.  Amari Cooper?  He was worth it for Dallas.  Before that K Mack?  Hes worked out for Chicago.  

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11 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

There arent too many big trades in the NFL.  They dont happen often.  Who was the last big name player traded?  Ramsey to the Rams?  He led the Rams D.  Amari Cooper?  He was worth it for Dallas.  Before that K Mack?  Hes worked out for Chicago.  

It’s really more this, as you say — that trades of this magnitude are just unusual in the first place. It used to happen more in years past, in the early stages of (or prior to) free agency, but with the salary cap so high and the rookie wage scale keeping those contracts so low, there aren’t many good matches.

Also teams just don’t trade top 5 QBs in the first place, so any other trade comparisons will fall shy of such an impact no matter how great the other players are. It’s not going to matter if Mack & Chicago’s defense hold the Saints to just 21 points if the offense can only score against defenses like Houston & Detroit. 

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It’s really more this, as you say — that trades of this magnitude are just unusual in the first place. It used to happen more in years past, in the early stages of (or prior to) free agency, but with the salary cap so high and the rookie wage scale keeping those contracts so low, there aren’t many good matches.

Also teams just don’t trade top 5 QBs in the first place, so any other trade comparisons will fall shy of such an impact no matter how great the other players are. It’s not going to matter if Mack & Chicago’s defense hold the Saints to just 21 points if the offense can only score against defenses like Houston & Detroit. 

Exactly how I look at the "big" trades we see.  Mack worked out in that he came to Chicago and played as advertised.  It didnt work out in that it didnt turn them into a SB team but he played to the level that Chicago thought he would and was worth the picks.  Same for Cooper etc 

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10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It’s an irrelevant question, since this is historically unprecedented.  Thus, comparing it to past trades makes no sense.  

It’s an absolutely relevant question. How many big name trades have worked out for the teams giving up the picks? 

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9 hours ago, doitny said:

there has only been 2 trades like that in the NFL and they were for Walker and Rickey Williams.  both RBs not the 3rd QB in the NFL.

they work out in baseball all the time. off the top of my head Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter. and Lindor will become another one if they can sign him long term. 

This isn’t baseball

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4 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

There arent too many big trades in the NFL.  They dont happen often.  Who was the last big name player traded?  Ramsey to the Rams?  He led the Rams D.  Amari Cooper?  He was worth it for Dallas.  Before that K Mack?  Hes worked out for Chicago.  

Winning Super Bowls and consistently making the playoffs is working out. Not one player doing good or ok and the team not doing sh*t. 

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14 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Yeah, so lets hold that against him.  Especially when he didnt have him for 3 seasons.

And led the league in passing without him in 2020.  If youre actually trying to say he was only productive because of Hopkins, I have no idea what youre watching

 

Yardage yes when your behind in games you pass more but Rogers was also 70+ percentage and had 48 td's and 5 picks but I guess just yardage wins games now not points.. And I'm not crapping on Watson who is a terrific QB..

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4 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Winning Super Bowls and consistently making the playoffs is working out. Not one player doing good or ok and the team not doing sh*t. 

Winning Super Bowls and consistently making the playoffs is a team problem.  A trade is about the player, being an integral part of being a winner, not the only part.  The same trade for Mack, he plays lights out and the QB sucks the trade sucks, the QB plays well and they make the SB the trade was different?  No if he misses time, contributes nothing but the Bears win SBs then the trade was a win?  

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1 minute ago, Savage69 said:

Yardage yes when your behind in games you pass more but Rogers was also 70+ percentage and had 48 td's and 5 picks but I guess just yardage wins games now not points.. And I'm not crapping on Watson who is a terrific QB..

That cliche doesn't apply to Watson and his career.   Hes been consistently putting up these huge numbers when he was playing on a 10 win and 11 win season just like the 4 win team.   Its not like he got a bump up the ratings being because the Texans sucked.  Hes always put up good numbers

 

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3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

That cliche doesn't apply to Watson and his career.   Hes been consistently putting up these huge numbers when he was playing on a 10 win and 11 win season just like the 4 win team.   Its not like he got a bump up the ratings being because the Texans sucked.  Hes always put up good numbers

 

My point was he passed the most this past season because the team was behind I'm not blaming him just stating facts.. Yes his other seasons were fine too I also think he was the only star on his team last season..

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10 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Winning Super Bowls and consistently making the playoffs is a team problem.  A trade is about the player, being an integral part of being a winner, not the only part.  The same trade for Mack, he plays lights out and the QB sucks the trade sucks, the QB plays well and they make the SB the trade was different?  No if he misses time, contributes nothing but the Bears win SBs then the trade was a win?  

Exactly. A team problem. If you give away all your picks you can’t fix the team. The current team sucks and has barley any talent. Giving away a ton of picks for one player that wasn’t happy he’s not allowed to be the assistant GM isn’t going to fix it. It’s a fell good look at who we have pick up that’s going to hurt the team overall. 

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4 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

Exactly. A team problem. If you give away all your picks you can’t fix the team. The current team sucks and has barley any talent. Giving away a ton of picks for one player that wasn’t happy he’s not allowed to be the assistant GM isn’t going to fix it. It’s a fell good look at who we have pick up that’s going to hurt the team overall. 

But doesnt mean a trade didnt work out well.  If you get the play out of the player you wanted for the picks you gave up but didnt win it doesnt change the value you got back.  

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4 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

But doesnt mean a trade didnt work out well.  If you get the play out of the player you wanted for the picks you gave up but didnt win it doesnt change the value you got back.  

And if you don't have any ammo for the pretty gun you bought your not shooting anything.. B)

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44 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

This isn’t baseball

and Watson isnt a RB who btw have the shortest playing careers of all NFL positions.

but to answer your original question as to the NFL ONLY,  it its 0 for 2 . not 0 for 10 or some long history as you would make it out to be. and when Watson gets trade to whoever it will be 1 for 3. QBs are not RBs. its like apples to oranges

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21 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

And if you don't have any ammo for the pretty gun you bought your not shooting anything.. B)

i read we have 67 mil in cap space. another 13 mil if we cut Anderson and Lewis. that 80 mil minus 30 for Watson is 50 million dollars. you dont think we can find ammo with 50 mil dollars? and Darnold wont be here either so whats that another 5 mil? 

and dont forget we still have draft picks in rds 2-7. 60% of NFL starters come from those rds. 10% from undrafted FA. 

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9 minutes ago, doitny said:

i read we have 67 mil in cap space. another 13 mil if we cut Anderson and Lewis. that 80 mil minus 30 for Watson is 50 million dollars. you dont think we can find ammo with 50 mil dollars? and Darnold wont be here either so whats that another 5 mil? 

and dont forget we still have draft picks in rds 2-7. 60% of NFL starters come from those rds. 10% from undrafted FA. 

People are ALWAYS way too optimistic about what FA can bring you.  All the juicy FAs out there all year and more than half will be reuped by teams who even if in cap trouble find ways to keep their best players.  The few premium FA that make it to open biding have many teams after them.

The lousy teams like the Jets have to outbid and out term other teams.

FA rarely if ever solves anything in the NFL.  It's were you add the few complimentary pieces after you have built via the draft.

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10 minutes ago, doitny said:

i read we have 67 mil in cap space. another 13 mil if we cut Anderson and Lewis. that 80 mil minus 30 for Watson is 50 million dollars. you dont think we can find ammo with 50 mil dollars? and Darnold wont be here either so whats that another 5 mil? 

and dont forget we still have draft picks in rds 2-7. 60% of NFL starters come from those rds. 10% from undrafted FA. 

With all the threads back and forth on Watson, the missing link is will Houston even trade him?? And if they don't before the draft much of what they may have got will be gone.. They may think come training camp he will show up there is still much to be played in this NFL soap opera..

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48 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

But doesnt mean a trade didnt work out well.  If you get the play out of the player you wanted for the picks you gave up but didnt win it doesnt change the value you got back.  

It definitely means it didn’t work. Everything a team does should be for one reason. Being the next dynasty. Not some knee jerk reaction to make fans happy for 6 months and sell tickets. 

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27 minutes ago, doitny said:

and Watson isnt a RB who btw have the shortest playing careers of all NFL positions.

but to answer your original question as to the NFL ONLY,  it its 0 for 2 . not 0 for 10 or some long history as you would make it out to be. and when Watson gets trade to whoever it will be 1 for 3. QBs are not RBs. its like apples to oranges

There’s been more big nfl trades that didn’t workout then just RBs. 

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Realistically, Watson's best move is to sit 10 games and then show up for the last six so his contract doesn't toll, costing him a year.  He'll lose money, but this is his 'cheap' season so he's not really putting that much at risk this way.  HOU then has to deal with figuring out a plan B at QB only to have to go back to having a disgruntled Watson show up in week 11/12.  They might feel like digging their heels in to 'prove a point', but it's probably not the best approach for the team long term.

And his trade value at that point will be lower than it is now.  In fact, only two teams have two picks in 2022 as of now.  Jets and Lions.  That'll likely be their main options to trading him at that point, barring more 1st round picks moving in the draft this year.  

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Just now, dcJet said:

Trading three ones for Watson doesn't prevent building the team with the rest of the ammo.

Our munitions are abundant.

And this came from your talk with the Texan front office?? Good to know now we don't have to speculate anymore..:cheers:

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11 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

It definitely means it didn’t work. Everything a team does should be for one reason. Being the next dynasty. Not some knee jerk reaction to make fans happy for 6 months and sell tickets. 

Trading for Watson works towards becoming a dynasty.  Dude can play for another 15 years.  

 

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The Jets have to make a credible on the aggressive side offer for Watson.  Like 2 firsts, and maybe another pick.

If for no other reason than it would end up increasing the price for Miami or Carolina.  We don’t need Miami to end up with both Watson and draft picks. 

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2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

People are ALWAYS way too optimistic about what FA can bring you.  All the juicy FAs out there all year and more than half will be reuped by teams who even if in cap trouble find ways to keep their best players.  The few premium FA that make it to open biding have many teams after them.

The lousy teams like the Jets have to outbid and out term other teams.

FA rarely if ever solves anything in the NFL.  It's were you add the few complimentary pieces after you have built via the draft.

your right about FA. who wants to come here.

but Watson would make us more attractive especially for WRs.

good article here talking about just that

Jets' uncertainty at QB could hurt ability to attract top free-agent WRs (msn.com)

There’s a lot of uncertainty at quarterback for the Jets. Maybe they will take a quarterback like BYU’s Zach Wilson with the second overall pick. Maybe they’ll pull off a blockbuster trade for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. Or maybe they’ll stick with their incumbent, former third overall pick Sam Darnold.

 

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There’s a lot of uncertainty at quarterback for the Jets. Maybe they will take a quarterback like BYU’s Zach Wilson with the second overall pick. Maybe they’ll pull off a blockbuster trade for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. Or maybe they’ll stick with their incumbent, former third overall pick Sam Darnold.

As Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv writes, the Jets’ unpredictable quarterback situation could influence their ability to attract free-agent wideouts to New York. Besides the obvious financial details of an offer, an agent told the reporter that receivers will be most focused on who’s under center as they evaluate signing with the Jets.

 
 

“It’s the first question they’re all going to ask, after they know the money,” the agent said. “Money is always going to matter most to some guys. But if it’s close, the Jets are going to have some tough questions to answer.”

“Players don’t like uncertainty,” said a different NFL agent. “I would think those [top receivers] will want to know who their quarterback is going to be, not just for this year, but for the length of their new deal.”

The Jets may not be able to provide that type of clarity to free agents. As Vacchiano notes, GM Joe Douglas is currently evaluating the top quarterback prospects and weighing their abilities against Darnold’s ability. Unfortunately, Wilson’s Pro Day isn’t until March 26, while Ohio State’s Justin Fields will be holding his Pro Day on March 30. Free agency starts on March 17, and at that point, the Jets could still be weeks away from making their own internal decision about the position.

Thanks to the poor timing, there’s a chance some of the top free-agent wideouts skip New York’s hypothetical offer and join a team with a bona fide starting quarterback. There will be more than half a dozen teams that could look to add free-agent wideouts, and if top names like Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay get slapped with the franchise tag, that means there will be an even higher demand for second-tier receivers (like JuJu Smith-Schuster, Will Fuller and Corey Davis).

On the flip side, the Jets have more financial flexibility than most teams, as they’ll be armed with $90M heading into the start of free agency. Even if the Jets have yet to decide on their direction at quarterback by March 17, they could still entice a free agent with a massive overpay.

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