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Tier 1 in this draft


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4 minutes ago, Bungaman said:

If JD finagles an extra pick in Rd 1 and WR is the choice, I'd go for Chase over Smith. The latter is just too slightly built. Chase is more solid. 

We could have a whole separate thread (and a lively one) about Chase vs. Smith vs. Waddle.  I'm leaning Waddle over Smith as well but I'm not locked in there yet.  

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Almost every year, there is a clear line between the top tier of guys you want, and everyone else.

That denotes the lowest pick you'd like to have, if possible, where you are still guaranteed one of those guys.  Sometimes, there are some positions you don't want in that tier, but they still push down the guys you do want.

So looking at this draft, I see pick 8 as the bottom.

Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Sewell, Chase, Smith, Waddle, Pitts.

I think there are positives to any one of those guys.  There are some concerns about the fit with Sewell, but if you were at #8 and he was the last guy there, you either take him or you get a bonanza to trade down again.  But that's pretty much the cutoff for me.  Not to say that one or more of them doesn't fall lower than #8, but I wouldn't want to be sitting lower down and have the last one gone before our pick.  At that point, you're looking at Trey Lance, Micah Parsons or Slater possibly.  In all cases, a big letdown from where we could be.

So if CIN, PHI, DET, ATL or CAR come calling with a big enough deal, I think I'm listening.  Honestly, after #1 it feels a bit like a crapshoot anyway.  We could possibly end up with the same guy at #6 as we would have picked at #2 this year.

Hate to beat a dead horse but if the Jets plan on taking a QB they need to stand pat at #2. And IMO that is exactly what they should be doing. That and inquiring about Watson. 

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I think that tier is where you’d be comfortable pre-draft and the larger the tier gets then the more there’s some wiggle room because there’s a better chance somebody from another tier sneaks in. How crazy would it be to see the first 8 picks be quarterbacks, pass catchers, and a tackle? Especially with the Jets’ needs.

Personally I struggle to see Waddle in the same tier as Chase, Smith, and even Pitts - incredible physical tools and some great moments in college to be sure but that high in the draft you’re selecting him to be the lead guy in the passing game in the NFL when he never did that in college but the other three did. Also Henry Ruggs’ rookie year - Waddle is more wiggle less straight line - kind of reinforces that a little. I think he’s just a touch below.

The quarterback/no quarterback takes in here are really interesting too. It’s such an important position I suppose the decision is made before the draft whether you might choose a guy - but a tier of blended quarterbacks and position players kind of implies you’re okay taking one or passing. Seems a little counterintuitive. I do think Douglas may actually have that approach but it’s interesting to think about IMO. If he trades Darnold is it 8 or is it more like 3 - how does he feel about Lance - and does Lance end up being the third quarterback. Lots of iterations.

The potentially important thing about getting to 8 in the context of the quarterback discussion is getting Carolina’s 2022 #1.

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1 hour ago, fullblast said:

I think you have to put Parsons, Farley and Surtain in that upper tier as well at least in terms of talent. But I guess defensive players have become less of a premium.

I don’t think corner or off ball linebacker matter *that* much for the Jets in the new scheme either, and I feel like Parsons has to tumble with the off field stuff, meh positional value (I do think he has some rush potential but he’s definitely not viewed as an end), and lack of clear combine numbers.

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10 hours ago, PepPep said:

Hate to beat a dead horse but if the Jets plan on taking a QB they need to stand pat at #2. And IMO that is exactly what they should be doing. That and inquiring about Watson. 

I get it.  If QB is the mandate, you're right.  But if we still have Sam at that point, and someone comes at us with a really overpriced offer, JD might be willing to consider a value move where he can put so much more around Sam that it's the better play.  And then there's still the chance that one of the QBs falls to our new spot, which, like the Mims pick last year, is a pure win.  Some risk, but lots of reward. 

I'm not saying it's the right move, but I would get it and accept the risk.  Also consider that another 1st rounder next year would give us 3 and put is in strong contention to move up and get a QB then, with an already much improved roster in place.  Not the absolute worst thing in the world, depending on who's coming out next year.

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

I get it.  If QB is the mandate, you're right.  But if we still have Sam at that point, and someone comes at us with a really overpriced offer, JD might be willing to consider a value move where he can put so much more around Sam that it's the better play.  And then there's still the chance that one of the QBs falls to our new spot, which, like the Mims pick last year, is a pure win.  Some risk, but lots of reward. 

I'm not saying it's the right move, but I would get it and accept the risk.  Also consider that another 1st rounder next year would give us 3 and put is in strong contention to move up and get a QB then, with an already much improved roster in place.  Not the absolute worst thing in the world, depending on who's coming out next year.

Yeah, I agree. the ONE X factor is how JD views Wilson and Fields. If he truly is not that impressed with either one I would not be at all surprised if he decided to pass on a QB at #2 or attempt to trade down, and I would fully support that. The dumbest thing you can do is take a QB THAT high just because you feel like you need a QB. 

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4 hours ago, nycdan said:

You like Smith more than Chase?

I don't blame him.  We are starting to forget at just how great Smith was this past year.  Chase is a bigger ?  If he played this past year he might be easily the #1 WR but he sat out and like it or not no film from this year will hurt him as it should.

I think Chase will go higher but it is for sure not a lock and Waddle is right there as well.  I'd be happy with any of those guys in a trade down.

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