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Draft Guru Mel Kiper goes on the record: “Jets should keep Darnold and PASS on Zach Wilson


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Hey Mel,  

whether he is a hack or not......what he says about zach wilson is true. he was good for 1 yr against a schedule full of sh*t teams.....and lost to the only good team on the schedule. that doesn't eve

I’m starting to think there’s a conspiracy going on with these so called draft experts. They just want the Jets continue to lose so they have someone to kick around.

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2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

sometimes i love wilson, and other times, i think saleh and douglas will keep darnold, trade back, stock the team as best they can with every position except qb and essentially defer the qb decision until next season with the understanding that darnold is not likely the answer.

Remember when we passed on Mahomes and Watson because Hack and no biggie, the next draft is the greatest of all time!!! and yet, we ended up with the worst QB in Football (and traded picks to get him).  That was awesome!

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Remember when we passed on Mahomes and Watson because Hack and no biggie, the next draft is the greatest of all time!!! and yet, we ended up with the worst QB in Football (and traded picks to get him).  That was awesome!

Next years draft class blows and it would really suck to be forced to trade up for another UsC qb or that Baker Mayfield clone 🤢🤢🤢🤢

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29 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

The Jets can easily find a decent veteran to offer competence in place of Darnold's bumbling stumbling ways for the 2021 season.

That’s a fine consolation prize but it would make it easier to just trade Sam and get the picks and  just get behind the vet right away. Flacco looked like me when I found out no buffets when covid started when he realized he would actually have to play. Still was better than Darnold. Dump Darnold, get a vet and build around him till we find a franchise QB someplace. Maybe we can take one in the fourth round, again. 

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3 hours ago, tfine said:

I’m on board with keeping Darnold. I doesn’t make sense to me to trade our potential franchise QB only to draft another potential franchise QB and the only reason to trade him is.......”his time here is up” that’s not a good enough reason. Darnold will be a star somewhere else and we will still be waiting for our Draft pick to carry a team devoid of talent


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yes but what would you do with his contract and extension deadline soon coming due? 

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34 minutes ago, JiF said:

Remember when we passed on Mahomes and Watson because Hack and no biggie, the next draft is the greatest of all time!!! and yet, we ended up with the worst QB in Football (and traded picks to get him).  That was awesome!

Swap with Flacons, get more picks, take Fields at 4.

GM'ing is easy.

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I agree with Kiper and Cimini. Personally, I think JD's priorities when it comes to QB do NOT involve drafting a QB at 2? He has two priorities with the support and agreement of Robert Saleh:

1) Trade for Deshaun Watson. The top priority is a no brainer. If you can trade for a top 5 QB in the prime of his youth you do it! Now, that's not to say you give up the franchise in the process. But the first option is obvious.

2) Go all in with Sammy. The questions most of you millennium Yahoo's had about Sammy have ALL been answered by other NFL teams. The other team's know the Jets are a sh*t team. That's why they're all calling about the availability of Sammy in trade. They know Sammy is a good player. They know that the Jets front office can **** up a perfectly good franchise QB. The Jets are in a great position to trade down and finally piece together the supporting cast Sammy has needed.

There is no 3rd option identifying Fields or Wilson. Fields especially SUCKS. 

With that said, what would you think of the Jets trading down a few spots and ultimately selecting Devonta Smith with their first pick and Najee Harris at 23? 

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Is Mel Kiper a scout? A GM type? Does he do math or just his hair?

If you're keeping Darnold you are eschewing the pick you would have gotten in return from him. If you keep Darnold, you are hoping he turns from being a turnover machine in his college career and then his NFL career thus far into one of the top 12 QB's in football (instead of the worst). The odds of this happening are not very good.

If he isn't, then you are in an even worse quandry than you are this year because if he somehow improves a little and is just mediocre instead of absolutely terrible, you are now stuck with the decision of paying him and hoping that 2023 will be Sam's big year (his fifth in the league) or you are outright not picking up his fifth year option and you are probably picking 8-10 in a draft that some say is not strong as far as QB's.  You are in limbo and Joe Douglass is almost undoubtedly out on his ample posterior within a couple of years.

Doesn't seem like a good gamble based on faith and not much else. You can't prove the case for Sam with tools he hasn't had or things he hasn't done. That's not the way it works.

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17 hours ago, T0mShane said:

It has to be a real consideration for teams as to whether or not they see Sam Darnold as a better prospect than Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. He doesn’t turn 24 until June, and he has a lot of starting experience in a brutal situation. I can see teams like the Niners and Panthers wanting to kick the tires instead of risking a one on an absolute unknown. Not the Jets, mind you, because I think the die is cast here. But, in a new environment. 

There is never any die that gets cast, Mr. shane. There's no such thing as a die. 

if you believe in Sammy you build around him without hesitation.... 

?

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17 hours ago, T0mShane said:

It has to be a real consideration for teams as to whether or not they see Sam Darnold as a better prospect than Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. He doesn’t turn 24 until June, and he has a lot of starting experience in a brutal situation. I can see teams like the Niners and Panthers wanting to kick the tires instead of risking a one on an absolute unknown. Not the Jets, mind you, because I think the die is cast here. But, in a new environment. 

If it's close to even, you need to let Darnold go for a draft pick and reset the QB pay scale clock (or whatever the hell that's called)

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2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

I made a post about this before, it is a fallacy that the best place to find great QB is with a top 3 pick in the draft. Heck, only  6 of the 21 QBs who have started multiple SB games were selected with a top 3 pick. 

 

Correlation doesn't prove causation. 

The 3 worst teams in the league are picking in/around the top 3. They're not typically the best-run organizations. That's why they're not in the super bowl; not because they picked a lesser prospect at #3 than could be had 20 or 120 picks later.

A correlative stat like that doesn't therefore mean a lower pick would have been better for this bottom-3 performing team, nor does it mean a top-3 pick QB wouldn't have been even better for a team typically picking in the bottom 5-10 every year. It just means super bowl teams don't often pick in the top 3. 

Also there isn't much recycling of the QBs who've been to multiple SBs (unless they first started to reach those games at the end of their careers), so they are getting counted twice, 3x, etc. - or even more like Brady - because those teams don't have top-3 picks with which to find their replacement QBs, barring an extreme exception like Indianapolis 2012. Also a top 3 pick isn't really a top 3 pick, in the same sense, if the player is acquired via FA or a trade that doesn't involve a top 3 pick. e.g. Tampa 2020, San Fran 2019, Philadelphia 2017, Denver 2015, Saints 2009, Arizona 2008, etc.

I very much doubt San Fran 2019 would have felt replacing Garoppolo with Luck would've been a major handicap. 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

No, no joke.  They guy who only lost 2 games his entire college career (both to National Champions), the guy who was lights out his entire college career, the guy who by far faced the best competition, the guy who has been Trevor Lawrence's rival since his freshman year in High School, the #1 duel threat prospect the country, the guy who is the best athlete in this group of QBs, the guy that had statistically the best college career of all the prospects, the guy who embarrassed TL to the tune of 6 TD's in the playoffs this season playing with broken ribs while TL was crying on the sidelines, the guy who was accepted to both Harvard and Yale.  The man among the boys.   Yes, you got it right, his name is Justin Fields. 

 

67045A20-560F-400B-88F6-69BD3A6D160A.gif

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

No, no joke.  They guy who only lost 2 games his entire college career (both to National Champions), the guy who was lights out his entire college career, the guy who by far faced the best competition, the guy who has been Trevor Lawrence's rival since his freshman year in High School, the #1 duel threat prospect the country, the guy who is the best athlete in this group of QBs, the guy that had statistically the best college career of all the prospects, the guy who embarrassed TL to the tune of 6 TD's in the playoffs this season playing with broken ribs while TL was crying on the sidelines, the guy who was accepted to both Harvard and Yale.  The man among the boys.   Yes, you got it right, his name is Justin Fields. 

you see it too huh?

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Correlation doesn't prove causation. 

The 3 worst teams in the league are picking in/around the top 3. They're not typically the best-run organizations. That's why they're not in the super bowl; not because they picked a lesser prospect at #3 than could be had 20 or 120 picks later.

A correlative stat like that doesn't therefore mean a lower pick would have been better for this bottom-3 performing team, nor does it mean a top-3 pick QB wouldn't have been even better for a team typically picking in the bottom 5-10 every year. It just means super bowl teams don't often pick in the top 3. 

Also there isn't much recycling of the QBs who've been to multiple SBs (unless they first started to reach those games at the end of their careers), so they are getting counted twice, 3x, etc. - or even more like Brady - because those teams don't have top-3 picks with which to find their replacement QBs, barring an extreme exception like Indianapolis 2012. Also a top 3 pick isn't really a top 3 pick, in the same sense, if the player is acquired via FA or a trade that doesn't involve a top 3 pick. e.g. Tampa 2020, San Fran 2019, Philadelphia 2017, Denver 2015, Saints 2009, Arizona 2008, etc.

I very much doubt San Fran 2019 would have felt replacing Garoppolo with Luck would've been a major handicap. 

It appears that you arrive at the same opinion through a different path i.e. bad teams like the jets should not pick a QB with a top 3 pick.

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3 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

It appears that you arrive at the same opinion through a different path i.e. bad teams like the jets should not pick a QB with a top 3 pick.

I wasn't aware I came to that conclusion. More like, if they take a QB at #3 not only make it a good one, but stop doing the other things that led to the team getting a top 3 pick in the first place. 

Not groundbreaking stuff, I'll grant you.

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20 hours ago, JiF said:

No, no joke.  They guy who only lost 2 games his entire college career (both to National Champions), the guy who was lights out his entire college career, the guy who by far faced the best competition, the guy who has been Trevor Lawrence's rival since his freshman year in High School, the #1 duel threat prospect the country, the guy who is the best athlete in this group of QBs, the guy that had statistically the best college career of all the prospects, the guy who embarrassed TL to the tune of 6 TD's in the playoffs this season playing with broken ribs while TL was crying on the sidelines, the guy who was accepted to both Harvard and Yale.  The man among the boys.   Yes, you got it right, his name is Justin Fields. 

https://sportsnaut.com/2021-nfl-draft-zach-wilson-210222/

 

Most of the concern with Fields is that he comes from a loaded program at Ohio State that featured a bevvy of playmakers around him. However, he’s a dynamic dual-threat quarterback capable of becoming the face of a franchise, drawing comparisons to Dallas’ Dak Prescott with his combination of arm talent and competitiveness.

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6 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

https://sportsnaut.com/2021-nfl-draft-zach-wilson-210222/

 

Most of the concern with Fields is that he comes from a loaded program at Ohio State that featured a bevvy of playmakers around him. However, he’s a dynamic dual-threat quarterback capable of becoming the face of a franchise, drawing comparisons to Dallas’ Dak Prescott with his combination of arm talent and competitiveness.

He's also might be the smartest of all the QB's coming out.  That shouldn't be discounted.  

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9 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

https://sportsnaut.com/2021-nfl-draft-zach-wilson-210222/

 

Most of the concern with Fields is that he comes from a loaded program at Ohio State that featured a bevvy of playmakers around him. However, he’s a dynamic dual-threat quarterback capable of becoming the face of a franchise, drawing comparisons to Dallas’ Dak Prescott with his combination of arm talent and competitiveness.

I have great respect for you, dont push this absolute nonsense as if it has any validity.   Are team taking Lawrence, Jones and Trask off the board because they too played for a loaded program?  If it's such a huge concern why did Mayfied, Murray and Burrow all go #1 overall from loaded programs?  

You are better then this. 

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I have great respect for you, dont push this absolute nonsense as if it has any validity.   Are team taking Lawrence, Jones and Trask off the board because they too played for a loaded program?  If it's such a huge concern why did Mayfied, Murray and Burrow all go #1 overall from loaded programs?  
You are better then this. 
No one is taking Fields off the boards ... they are just slotting him around 10 ... Wilson should be slotted there as well ... but his trajectory is climbing ... not falling.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using JetNation.com mobile app

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10 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

No one is taking Fields off the boards ... they are just slotting him around 10 ... Wilson should be slotted there as well ... but his trajectory is climbing ... not falling.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

I think it will be interesting once these teams get their hands on these guys.  The talking head goof balls are in hot take mode but it would be bonkers to me you have a chance to sit with these 2 and come out thinking Wilson is the better pick.  I gotta feeling once these guys see the freakish size athleticism and get to test that Ivy league brain and realize the skill sets really arent comparable, that the man vs. boy factor could weigh pretty heavy with the actual teams vs. the talking head draftnik dweebs. 

Could be wrong, this is a league who took Mitch Trubisky over Mahomes/Watson and Tua over Herbert but I think the smart teams see the trend.  I'm hoping if QB is in the cards for the Jets, so does JD.

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23 hours ago, The Crusher said:

When people here say , “ stick with Sam, build the rest of the team by trading down, get a QB next year.” Are you assuming we are drafting in the top 3 again? Or are we planning to trade all our picks to move up for a rookie like we could be this year for Watson if available? Personally I think we stick with Sam and we are less the a 6 win team. 

i think most of us who say to stick with sam and build the team have the opinion that on a team with at least some semblance of nfl starter talent that darnold will succeed.

first i have no faith that either wilson or fields is better. but besides that, i think that what we can do with that #2 pick will give us a superior team to what we would have if we use it on wilson or fields. we can either trade down and acquire more talent and picks to build up a severely depleted roster....or we can stay put and take a guy like sewell who would instantly help our offense. i just don't see wilson or fields instantly doing anything except struggling. 

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On 3/2/2021 at 2:16 AM, heymangold said:

Steve Young went to BYU, he turned out to be pretty good.  Phil Simms went to some college I’ve never heard of.  Point being, doesn’t really matter where you’re from, if you have the tools you have the tools.

What if you suck against coastal Carolina and have a bum throwing shoulder?

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On 3/1/2021 at 6:40 PM, Warfish said:

I 100% agree with this concern.  Wilson to me looks like the poster-child for one-year-wonder overdrafting.  Much talent, such skills, no.......real.....resume.  San Diego Barber College wins don;t impress me.

But I've always been a guy who wants guys with resume, not the "no production/big potential" hype lords.

so you'd admit that means there are many good to great QB's you would pass on because of this line of thinking.

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On 3/1/2021 at 5:36 PM, T0mShane said:

It has to be a real consideration for teams as to whether or not they see Sam Darnold as a better prospect than Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. He doesn’t turn 24 until June, and he has a lot of starting experience in a brutal situation. I can see teams like the Niners and Panthers wanting to kick the tires instead of risking a one on an absolute unknown. Not the Jets, mind you, because I think the die is cast here. But, in a new environment. 

Sam is damaged goods.

Wilson or Fields is a fresh start on a rookie deal.

It’s a no-brainer 
 

*regardless of team 

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Wilson, like Darnold, is unproven beyond one year. Is that repetition of the same failed process? Despite Wilson’s upside? It was all Darnold’s upside also. A projection based on one year.

Darnold is trash righ now and he could be salvaged but he needs work, and even at that he’s a pitcher with control issues. You rely on Darnold to start, ok, can he go 7 innings? Can he make it out of 3 innings? He’s more likely right now to be the guy that’s not clutch, that walks in a run with bases loaded after giving up a single and consecutive walks. 

Even with that said Darnold’s worst quality is his personality, lack of charisma, lack of compete. He’s devoid of leadership qualities. How does Darnold lead this team? He can’t. He needs to be gone and an infusion of leadership needs to commence. Maye, QW, Becton, Crowder, maybe Mosley, who else? Team needs leadership and confidence — or at least hope — at QB and in the offense now desperately. Darnold brings nothing but Pollyanna naïveté.  

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Has anyone ever offered this guy a coffee boy position in the NFL with the 30 years he's been doing this? Mayock got a GM position after like 3 years on TV. Mel is an idiot he's basically a poster here but dumber. If he had any real talent he'd be working for one of the 32 NFL teams at this point

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On 3/1/2021 at 8:18 PM, Anthony Jet said:

Apparently Becton to the Jets was the worst kept secret on sports 

Almost always the 4th Tackle off the board.

The surprise was that he was taken ahead of Wirfs.

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On 3/3/2021 at 7:53 AM, JiF said:

I think it will be interesting once these teams get their hands on these guys.  The talking head goof balls are in hot take mode but it would be bonkers to me you have a chance to sit with these 2 and come out thinking Wilson is the better pick.  I gotta feeling once these guys see the freakish size athleticism and get to test that Ivy league brain and realize the skill sets really arent comparable, that the man vs. boy factor could weigh pretty heavy with the actual teams vs. the talking head draftnik dweebs. 

Could be wrong, this is a league who took Mitch Trubisky over Mahomes/Watson and Tua over Herbert but I think the smart teams see the trend.  I'm hoping if QB is in the cards for the Jets, so does JD.

Agree with this. The eye test should make Fields the pick

But more importantly, Fields just seems like the safer pick.

He's bigger, more athletic, more durable and has done it longer.

We'd all love to have Watson, Russell Wilson or Dak. Well which of the 2 QB's reminds us most of them?

 

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On 3/1/2021 at 8:47 PM, varjet said:

A good NFL scout can figure out whether a player's success in college will translate to the pros.  

Great college players on great college teams end up flopping, and players like Allen, Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers end up great NFL players (I am ignoring Brady).

Wilson played who he had to play.   After we see how he measures physically, and how that compares to some other QBs, we can get a better sense of how he will do.  I do think that a QB needs to be athletic to succeed.  Look at:

Darnold:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/sam-darnold (not that athletic)

Mahomes: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/patrick-mahomes (very athletic)

Rodgers:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/aaron-rodgers 

Trubisky:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/mitch-trubisky (more athletic than you think)

Daniel Jones:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/mitch-trubisky (like Josh Allen)

Josh Allen:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/josh-allen

Let's see how Zach Wilson measures up like.  

Show me Bradys athletic numbers

How about Drew Brees?

What were Geno Smiths athletic numbers?

How did Mahomes athleticism help him in the Super Bowl?

For me, its about processing speed.   Being athletic might buy you time or get you out of trouble if you cant process fast enough.

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On 3/2/2021 at 3:16 PM, The Crusher said:

When people here say , “ stick with Sam, build the rest of the team by trading down, get a QB next year.” Are you assuming we are drafting in the top 3 again? Or are we planning to trade all our picks to move up for a rookie like we could be this year for Watson if available? Personally I think we stick with Sam and we are less the a 6 win team. 

And Sam won 7 games with a crappy team, Adam Gase and missing a quarter of the season just a year ago

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2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

And Sam won 7 games with a crappy team, Adam Gase and missing a quarter of the season just a year ago

He beat two playoff teams this year. Hopefully those two things get us a good pick for him. 

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