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Fair value for a trade down.


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There is some serious clamor for a trade down from the #2 pick and I wholeheartedly support it.  But I do not believe we are going to get a fair offer and will be forced to pick.  To understand why you have to look at the trade card and calculate the points.  Remember, next years picks are valued at the middle of the round discounted by one full round.  Thus next years first round pick is worth 420 points since that is the value of the 16th pick in the second round.   And so on.

For the Fins to move up to the #2 spot from #3 would cost them their 2d round pick (#50) or 400 points.  This is reasonable.  But they took three offense lineman last year and all of them start  (Jackson 1st, Hunt 2d, and Kindley 4th).  All looked good at times too.  Kindley is a stud.  It is not going to happen.  Lets look further back.

Falcons are next, it would cost them 800 points.  Thus their 2d (#35 - 550 points) and 3d (#68 - 250) round picks.  That is some serious comp.

Bengals would need 900 points.  Thus their 2d (#38 - 520 points), their 3d (#69 - 245 points),  their 4th (#102 - 92 points) and their 5th (133 - 39.5 points).  This is 897 points, just a bit shy.  I would take that in a heartbeat.  So would us all.

Eagles would need 1000 points.  Thus their 2d (#37 - 530 points), their 3d (#70 - 240 points), their 4th - which they do NOT have (#101 - 96 points), their 5th (#134 - 39 points), their 6th (#165 - 25 points), their 7th (#198 - 12 points).  Since that is only 942 they would have to fork over another 58 points.  That is next year's 4th (35 points) and next year's 5th (16 points).  Yes, they are still 7 points shy but I wold let them slide.  Whoa.  

As you can see, it is pretty much madness to trade into the top of the draft unless you are already there.  Even then it is a lot of compensation for just a few spots.  I  would take any of these offers.  So would you.  But it is not realistic.

I do not believe that any team is going to make a fair offer.  I believe we will be forced to pick and will take Sewell.  We are a 2-14 club and have a long way to go.  For those who want a QB, this is not last year's draft with two QBs in Barrow and Herbert.  This year it is Lawrence and a lot of hope.  I would not be surprised if none of them went in the top ten.

Here is the trade card from Our Lads.  They are pretty much the same everywhere. 

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/

 

 

Edited by clayton163v
fix mistake
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Any team trading up to #2 to get the second best QB in the draft, or according to Chris Simms, the best QB in the draft will pay a premium.  This is for what they would believe is a FQB so they need to pay accordingly. 

My best guess is: 

Eagles:  ‘21 (1st, 2nd), ‘22 (1st)

Panthers: ‘21 (1st, 2nd), ‘22 (1st, 2nd)

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Here is 8 to 2 when the Eagles did it.

 

The Eagles get: The No. 2 pick in 2016 and a 2017 fourth-round pick.

The Browns get: The No. 8 pick in 2016, the No. 77 pick (third round) in 2016, the No. 100 pick (fourth round) in 2016, a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder.

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After today’s presser I have to imagine they are taking QB at 2 unless they love Lance.

But if they did trade down I’d want a 1 next year at a minimum to use as ammo for a Watson trade if it goes in-season.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Any team trading up to #2 to get the second best QB in the draft, or according to Chris Simms, the best QB in the draft will pay a premium.  This is for what they would believe is a FQB so they need to pay accordingly. 

My best guess is: 

Eagles:  ‘21 (1st, 2nd), ‘22 (1st)

Panthers: ‘21 (1st, 2nd), ‘22 (1st, 2nd)

The Eagles would be paying below value (530 + 420).  They still owe another 50 points.  This year's 4th and 7th would do it but they do not have the 4th. 

The Panthers would owe us 1200 points for a move from #8 to #2.  Your proposed trade only yields 1120 (510 + 420 + 190).  Thus they would owe us another 80 points.  That is this year's 4th #(#84 - 86 points).   We would have to toss in next year's 7th.   

Does anybody see what I mean?  To move into the #2 spot carries a hideous cost.  I just cannot see it.  Nor will I take less.  Not with a franchise tackle on the board.  You have to take him. 

Edited by clayton163v
I messed up the math
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If we were receiving nothing but picks, the OP makes sense. However, a team that doesn't want to give up all picks can include a player instead - which leaves the valuation more open ended.

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15 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Here is 8 to 2 when the Eagles did it.

 

The Eagles get: The No. 2 pick in 2016 and a 2017 fourth-round pick.

The Browns get: The No. 8 pick in 2016, the No. 77 pick (third round) in 2016, the No. 100 pick (fourth round) in 2016, a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder.

That trade was one sided in favor of the Eagles.  The Eagles received 2,634 points (2600 + 34 points) for 2115 points (1200 + 205 + 100 + 420 + 190) from the Browns.  That's is a high second round pick shy of the card.    

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5 minutes ago, Bungaman said:

If we were receiving nothing but picks, the OP makes sense. However, a team that doesn't want to give up all picks can include a player instead - which leaves the valuation more open ended.

True, but we were 2-14.  We need young players, not second contract guys.  We can get them in free agency.  Unless they wish to part with young starters, I am not interested.

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15 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Here is 8 to 2 when the Eagles did it.

 

The Eagles get: The No. 2 pick in 2016 and a 2017 fourth-round pick.

The Browns get: The No. 8 pick in 2016, the No. 77 pick (third round) in 2016, the No. 100 pick (fourth round) in 2016, a 2017 first-rounder and a 2018 second-rounder.

Hmmmm no sorry. I heard the #2 pick was worth seven first round picks. Please check your chart again

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6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Hmmmm no sorry. I heard the #2 pick was worth seven first round picks. Please check your chart again

No.  But it is theoretically worth 4 and change.  If the first round picks are low enough and are in this year's draft.  It is worth far more than 6 first round picks if you start to include 1sts in future years.  

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4 minutes ago, clayton163v said:

No.  But it is theoretically worth 4 and change.  If the first round picks are low enough and are in this year's draft.  It is worth far more than 6 first round picks if you start to include 1sts in future years.  

Sign me up

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16 hours ago, clayton163v said:

There is some serious clamor for a trade down from the #2 pick and I wholeheartedly support it.  But I do not believe we are going to get a fair offer and will be forced to pick.  To understand why you have to look at the trade card and calculate the points.  Remember, next years picks are valued at the middle of the round discounted by one full round.  Thus next years first round pick is worth 420 points since that is the value of the 16th pick in the second round.   And so on.

For the Fins to move up to the #2 spot from #3 would cost them their 2d round pick (#50) or 400 points.  This is reasonable.  But they took three offense lineman last year and all of them start  (Jackson 1st, Hunt 2d, and Kindley 4th).  All looked good at times too.  Kindley is a stud.  It is not going to happen.  Lets look further back.

Falcons are next, it would cost them 800 points.  Thus their 2d (#35 - 550 points) and 3d (#68 - 250) round picks.  That is some serious comp.

Bengals would need 900 points.  Thus their 2d (#38 - 520 points), their 3d (#69 - 245 points),  their 4th (#102 - 92 points) and their 5th (133 - 39.5 points).  This is 897 points, just a bit shy.  I would take that in a heartbeat.  So would us all.

Eagles would need 1000 points.  Thus their 2d (#37 - 530 points), their 3d (#70 - 240 points), their 4th - which they do NOT have (#101 - 96 points), their 5th (#134 - 39 points), their 6th (#165 - 25 points), their 7th (#198 - 12 points).  Since that is only 942 they would have to fork over another 58 points.  That is next year's 4th (35 points) and next year's 5th (16 points).  Yes, they are still 7 points shy but I wold let them slide.  Whoa.  

As you can see, it is pretty much madness to trade into the top of the draft unless you are already there.  Even then it is a lot of compensation for just a few spots.  I  would take any of these offers.  So would you.  But it is not realistic.

I do not believe that any team is going to make a fair offer.  I believe we will be forced to pick and will take Sewell.  We are a 2-14 club and have a long way to go.  For those who want a QB, this is not last year's draft with two QBs in Barrow and Herbert.  This year it is Lawrence and a lot of hope.  I would not be surprised if none of them went in the top ten.

Here is the trade card from Our Lads.  They are pretty much the same everywhere. 

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/

 

 

Was this a long-winded explanation of trying to justify taking a second LT with the #2 pick, event though we used the #11 pick on one last year?  

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24 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

In any trade we need to get Kenyon Coleman, Abram Elam and Brett Ratliff

I remember actually thinking we overpaid giving up those guys in that trade.

Sheesh...what a homer.

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It all comes down to how other teams this year value the QB's after TL. I don't believe there is one worth trading up in the top 5.

I believe there is value for teams to pick a QB at their draft pick but not to move up for.

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16 hours ago, Greenseed4 said:

Any team trading up to #2 to get the second best QB in the draft, or according to Chris Simms, the best QB in the draft will pay a premium.  This is for what they would believe is a FQB so they need to pay accordingly. 

My best guess is: 

Eagles:  ‘21 (1st, 2nd), ‘22 (1st)

Panthers: ‘21 (1st, 2nd), ‘22 (1st, 2nd)

Neither of those are really worth it to me. I'm a dope on the internet as a disclaimer. If any QB is good enough at #2 from a scouting stand point teams want to trade up you just take him. We just got 2 firsts for Jamal Adams which is hilarious, but I really wish we took Mahomes or Watson

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I figure if the Panthers wanted to jump into #2 it would cost them:

2021: 1st, 2nd 2022: 1st

Or 

2021: 1st, 3rd, 4th 2022: 1st

Either way I'd be fine with a trade down that looked something like that and we'd probably have to throw in a 6th. But getting the 8th pick could still possibly get us Smith or Pitts or the Northwestern LT, and one or two extra picks? At that rate I love our chances at getting as much as 5 or 6 starters. JFTR, that is HUGE. If that happens, we could look back on this draft as the very draft that forever changed out fortunes.

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Wilson’s value is currently skyrocketing. Any trade up to pick 2 should net 3 1st round picks. Even then tho I think they should stay put and just take Wilson

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1 hour ago, CanadaSteve said:

Was this a long-winded explanation of trying to justify taking a second LT with the #2 pick, event though we used the #11 pick on one last year?  

No.  The  post is intended to inject some realism into the harsh choice in front of us.  It is a two person draft at the top and nobody is going to cough up the picks to make a fair offer.  I honestly believe we will be picking.  Who we should pick is obvious.  If I thought we had any chance whatsoever of contending next year then I would entertain need over value.  But we were 2-14. 

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1 hour ago, NYJ1 said:

I figure if the Panthers wanted to jump into #2 it would cost them:

2021: 1st, 2nd 2022: 1st

Or 

2021: 1st, 3rd, 4th 2022: 1st

Either way I'd be fine with a trade down that looked something like that and we'd probably have to throw in a 6th. But getting the 8th pick could still possibly get us Smith or Pitts or the Northwestern LT, and one or two extra picks? At that rate I love our chances at getting as much as 5 or 6 starters. JFTR, that is HUGE. If that happens, we could look back on this draft as the very draft that forever changed out fortunes.

I respect the idea that we could accept less.  But I cannot do it with a chess piece on the board.  It's just not enough. 

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18 hours ago, clayton163v said:

There is some serious clamor for a trade down from the #2 pick and I wholeheartedly support it.  But I do not believe we are going to get a fair offer and will be forced to pick.  To understand why you have to look at the trade card and calculate the points.  Remember, next years picks are valued at the middle of the round discounted by one full round.  Thus next years first round pick is worth 420 points since that is the value of the 16th pick in the second round.   And so on.

For the Fins to move up to the #2 spot from #3 would cost them their 2d round pick (#50) or 400 points.  This is reasonable.  But they took three offense lineman last year and all of them start  (Jackson 1st, Hunt 2d, and Kindley 4th).  All looked good at times too.  Kindley is a stud.  It is not going to happen.  Lets look further back.

Falcons are next, it would cost them 800 points.  Thus their 2d (#35 - 550 points) and 3d (#68 - 250) round picks.  That is some serious comp.

Bengals would need 900 points.  Thus their 2d (#38 - 520 points), their 3d (#69 - 245 points),  their 4th (#102 - 92 points) and their 5th (133 - 39.5 points).  This is 897 points, just a bit shy.  I would take that in a heartbeat.  So would us all.

Eagles would need 1000 points.  Thus their 2d (#37 - 530 points), their 3d (#70 - 240 points), their 4th - which they do NOT have (#101 - 96 points), their 5th (#134 - 39 points), their 6th (#165 - 25 points), their 7th (#198 - 12 points).  Since that is only 942 they would have to fork over another 58 points.  That is next year's 4th (35 points) and next year's 5th (16 points).  Yes, they are still 7 points shy but I wold let them slide.  Whoa.  

As you can see, it is pretty much madness to trade into the top of the draft unless you are already there.  Even then it is a lot of compensation for just a few spots.  I  would take any of these offers.  So would you.  But it is not realistic.

I do not believe that any team is going to make a fair offer.  I believe we will be forced to pick and will take Sewell.  We are a 2-14 club and have a long way to go.  For those who want a QB, this is not last year's draft with two QBs in Barrow and Herbert.  This year it is Lawrence and a lot of hope.  I would not be surprised if none of them went in the top ten.

Here is the trade card from Our Lads.  They are pretty much the same everywhere. 

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldraftvalue/

 

 

Zach Wilson is better than Trevor Lawrence. And if he's not, he's not far behind. Definitely not the gulf between "sure thing" and "a lot of hope".

 

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1 minute ago, The Count of Monte Cristo said:

Zach Wilson is better than Trevor Lawrence. And if he's not, he's not far behind. Definitely not the gulf between "sure thing" and "a lot of hope".

 

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