Joe Douglas should part with coveted draft capital to get Deshaun Watson

[MykePM]

5 hours ago, Savage69 said:

He don't have to show up and they can fine him and not pay him if he choses that route..

Agreed, and that’s to be expected.  What I don’t agree with is that Watson should be painted as dishonorable for exercising his options (as was done earlier in the thread - not by you), while teams regularly break contracts that they signed and it’s considered to be just business.

[Dunnie]

15 minutes ago, chad2coles said:

Peyton Manning and Brett Favre had similar records while in their primes.  No QB could have done more than Watson did to help the Texans win last year.  If the Jets are able to spread the picks they trade to Houston over the next 3 drafts, they'll have plenty picks and cap room to build a contender around Watson.  

Brett went 4-12 in his 15th year.

[chad2coles]

3 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Brett went 4-12 in his 15th year.

And then took 2 teams to conference championships. Watson was in his 3rd full season and his numbers keep getting better. It’s not his fault they had no defense and a coaching change mid season. Most hall of fame qbs have had losing seasons. Few have put up the numbers Watson has this young. 

[Dunnie]

4 minutes ago, chad2coles said:

And then took 2 teams to conference championships. Watson was in his 3rd full season and his numbers keep getting better. It’s not his fault they had no defense and a coaching change mid season. Most hall of fame qbs have had losing seasons. Few have put up the numbers Watson has this young. 

My point being Brett took 15 years to go 4-12 ... Watson has a long way to go to be in teh same conversation.

[chad2coles]

8 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

My point being Brett took 15 years to go 4-12 ... Watson has a long way to go to be in teh same conversation.

How does it matter whether it’s a qbs 3rd year or 15th year? Of course Watson has a long way to go. He’s only had 3 full seasons. But he’s been incredible so far, and there’s no reason to think he’s peaked at age 25. 

[doitny]

41 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

How did the crazy talented Buccaneers do without Brady?  

and thats how important a FQB is. if we full the roster but cant get the QB that all we will be. a 7-9 team hoping a really good QB becomes a FA. 

[doitny]

20 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

My point being Brett took 15 years to go 4-12 ... Watson has a long way to go to be in teh same conversation.

and Aaron Rodgers went 6-10 in his first full season. did it again a few years ago. 

[chad2coles]

4 minutes ago, doitny said:

and Aaron Rodgers went 6-10 in his first full season. did it again a few years ago. 

Yea, almost every hall of fame qb has had losing seasons, and all of them, in their prime, would have had a losing season for the Texans last year. 

[JohnnyLV]

4 hours ago, chad2coles said:

Watson will never have a cap hit $30m higher than the #2 pick of the 2020 draft, but his production will probably be worth $40m more than Zach Wilson’s. 
 

it’s such a garbage argument that Watson’s cap hit will prevent the rangers from building a contender AND that Watson will demand a new deal bc he’s not paid enough. 

Let's see Wilson will make $10 million in 2022. Watson will make $40 million. 40-10= $30 million. Facts hurt.

[Dunnie]

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Let's see Wilson will make $10 million in 2022. Watson will make $40 million. 40-10= $30 million. Facts hurt.

2023 as well

[chad2coles]

8 hours ago, johnnysd said:

Let's see Wilson will make $10 million in 2022. Watson will make $40 million. 40-10= $30 million. Facts hurt.

You are wrong. Watson’s cap hit to the team that gets him will never be $40m. Where are you getting your info?

[chad2coles]

3 hours ago, Dunnie said:

2023 as well

He would never be a $40m cap hit to the Jets while he’s on this contract. 

[Columbia Jet Fan]

7 minutes ago, chad2coles said:

You are wrong. Watson’s cap hit to the team that gets him will never be $40m. Where are you getting your info?

Here is what Watson's contract would be if we traded for him since we are not responsible for the amoritizing cost of his signing bonus. Its very favorable. 

 

For the team trading for Watson, the situation is slightly different. Watson would count just $10.54 million against their salary cap in 2021. That number would rise significantly in 2022 to $35 million and again to $37 million in 2023 before decreasing slightly to $32 million in each of the final two years of his contract. The hopes are that the league will be closer to normal circumstances in the 2021 season than they did in 2020. Therefore, the cap in 2022 and 2023 would be expected to rise above the 2021 figure, giving more flexibility to teams in the future.

 

 

[chad2coles]

23 minutes ago, Columbia Jet Fan said:

Here is what Watson's contract would be if we traded for him since we are not responsible for the amoritizing cost of his signing bonus. Its very favorable. 

 

For the team trading for Watson, the situation is slightly different. Watson would count just $10.54 million against their salary cap in 2021. That number would rise significantly in 2022 to $35 million and again to $37 million in 2023 before decreasing slightly to $32 million in each of the final two years of his contract. The hopes are that the league will be closer to normal circumstances in the 2021 season than they did in 2020. Therefore, the cap in 2022 and 2023 would be expected to rise above the 2021 figure, giving more flexibility to teams in the future.

 

 

This is accurate. 

'21 - $10.54M
'22 - $35M
'23 - $37M
'24 - $32M team option
'25 - $32M team option.  

So he'll never have a cap hit of $30M more than Zach Wilson.  Now, lets just say that Watson has peaked at 25 and will not improve on his numbers over the last 3 years and him and Wilson are healthy throughout the 5 years on their contracts.  Watson has averaged 4,371 yards over a 16 game season with 29 tds and 10 ints with 479 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns as well.  He's also got the highest all time completion percentage ever and 2nd highest QB rating behind a garbage offensive line.

What is it that you think Wilson, who was 2-4 against ranked teams in his college career with (wins against 21st ranked Boise State and 24th ranked USC in OT), is going to do in the NFL that would give the Jets a better chance to contend for a title than Watson?  How many NFL level players has he gone up against?  Before Watson got drafted he beat an Alabama defense with 10 guys that were drafted by the 3rd round for a national championship. 

What are the numbers Wilson is going to put up in the NFL?  You must have some idea if you think he's a better option than Watson, right?

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, chad2coles said:

This is accurate. 

'21 - $10.54M
'22 - $35M
'23 - $37M
'24 - $32M team option
'25 - $32M team option.  

So he'll never have a cap hit of $30M more than Zach Wilson.  Now, lets just say that Watson has peaked at 25 and will not improve on his numbers over the last 3 years and him and Wilson are healthy throughout the 5 years on their contracts.  Watson has averaged 4,371 yards over a 16 game season with 29 tds and 10 ints with 479 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns as well.  He's also got the highest all time completion percentage ever and 2nd highest QB rating behind a garbage offensive line.

What is it that you think Wilson, who was 2-4 against ranked teams in his college career with (wins against 21st ranked Boise State and 24th ranked USC in OT), is going to do in the NFL that would give the Jets a better chance to contend for a title than Watson?  How many NFL level players has he gone up against?  Before Watson got drafted he beat an Alabama defense with 10 guys that were drafted by the 3rd round for a national championship. 

What are the numbers Wilson is going to put up in the NFL?  You must have some idea if you think he's a better option than Watson, right?

OK so it's $25 million instead of $30 million so you were technically correct in your statement but still it is a significant difference.

To be honest, you are looking at this completely wrong. 

It is not a comparison of Wilson vs. Watson. It is a comparison of the total team over the next 3 years with Watson and with Wilson.

Personally I think Wilson has a good chance to be as good as Watson, and I also have real concerns that Watson will stay at this level, stats do not always paint a great figure. Personally I feel if you put a truly elite QB like Rodgers or Brady an ANY team they would never go 4-12. EVER. 

To really have this conversation though it starts with what you are expecting to trade for Watson. Please let me know.

I also do not buy the level of competition argument. A throw is a throw. Watson was very impressive against Alabama no doubt but his surrounding cast was also far better. If you look at the ratings of team talent BYU was near the bottom of CFB.  But let me know the trade you suggesti

[Dunnie]

It is not a comparison of Wilson vs. Watson. It is a comparison of the total team over the next 3 years with Watson and with Wilson.

Bingo ... we gave a winner

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using JetNation.com mobile app

[FidelioJet]

15 hours ago, MykePM said:

Agreed, and that’s to be expected.  What I don’t agree with is that Watson should be painted as dishonorable for exercising his options (as was done earlier in the thread - not by you), while teams regularly break contracts that they signed and it’s considered to be just business.

This NEVER happened not will it ever happen.  Teams cut players, which is part of the contract.

As for Watson being dishonorable, I don't want to speak for everyone but I don't think most believe that.

I think it's worrisome and have reason to believe he would do it again if he doesn't get his way.  And that concerns me when I'm giving up 4 first round picks for him.

[chad2coles]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

OK so it's $25 million instead of $30 million so you were technically correct in your statement but still it is a significant difference.

To be honest, you are looking at this completely wrong. 

It is not a comparison of Wilson vs. Watson. It is a comparison of the total team over the next 3 years with Watson and with Wilson.

Personally I think Wilson has a good chance to be as good as Watson, and I also have real concerns that Watson will stay at this level, stats do not always paint a great figure. Personally I feel if you put a truly elite QB like Rodgers or Brady an ANY team they would never go 4-12. EVER. 

To really have this conversation though it starts with what you are expecting to trade for Watson. Please let me know.

I also do not buy the level of competition argument. A throw is a throw. Watson was very impressive against Alabama no doubt but his surrounding cast was also far better. If you look at the ratings of team talent BYU was near the bottom of CFB.  But let me know the trade you suggesti

#2, #34, '22 1st, '23 1st

What year do you think that package will be more productive than Deshaun Watson?

Obviously not next year when it's Watson vs. Zach Wilson and the 34th drafted player with no extra cap space, right?

The following year it's Deshaun Watson, a top 3 QB (remember at this point Tom Brady is 45 and Aaron Rodgers is 39) against Zach Wilson ($11M), a 2nd year 2nd rounder ($2M), a 1st round pick ($3M), and $19M in cap space.  You think that group out performs Deshaun Watson?  It doesn't add up. 

Or is it the next year, 2023, when you add another 1st round pick to the group?  Who is Douglas drafting with these picks that's going to make up the difference between Zach Wilson and Deshaun Watson?  What numbers is Zach Wilson putting up in year 3 on the Jets?  Are the other draft picks all starters?

[JohnnyLV]

45 minutes ago, chad2coles said:

#2, #34, '22 1st, '23 1st

What year do you think that package will be more productive than Deshaun Watson?

Obviously not next year when it's Watson vs. Zach Wilson and the 34th drafted player with no extra cap space, right?

The following year it's Deshaun Watson, a top 3 QB (remember at this point Tom Brady is 45 and Aaron Rodgers is 39) against Zach Wilson ($11M), a 2nd year 2nd rounder ($2M), a 1st round pick ($3M), and $19M in cap space.  You think that group out performs Deshaun Watson?  It doesn't add up. 

Or is it the next year, 2023, when you add another 1st round pick to the group?  Who is Douglas drafting with these picks that's going to make up the difference between Zach Wilson and Deshaun Watson?  What numbers is Zach Wilson putting up in year 3 on the Jets?  Are the other draft picks all starters?

I think that is a fair analysis and I can respect your view on it. I suspect that is not enough compensation for the Texans but making one of the 1st round picks a 2023 does diminish the impact.

Still in your scenario, I think even in the first two years you are taking at least 1 excellent starter probably 2, and anywhere from 2 staters to 6 solid contributors on the team which is signficant.

I think the Jets in year 2 and beyond would be better overall than the team with Watson. 

I do not believe Watson is a Top 3 QB in the NFL. He is not in the same world as Brady, Mahomes and Rodgers.I think he is quite good and likely Top 10. He is a good dual threat QB that throws a good long ball.

 I am not going to get all excited about a season where he failed to elevate his own team, showed no leadership and padded his stats against tons of soft zone. He had 71% of his yards when behind in games, and only had an 80 rating when tied when he would be playing standard defenses,

He did not elevate his team. Throw any of the other Top Qbs on that team and I do not see 4-12. 

I also believe in Wilson quite a bit. I think his ceiling is every bit as high as Watson's.

Regardless even if Wilson is just a middle of the road pro, I think you are way understimating the effect 

[chad2coles]

12 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I think that is a fair analysis and I can respect your view on it. I suspect that is not enough compensation for the Texans but making one of the 1st round picks a 2023 does diminish the impact.

Still in your scenario, I think even in the first two years you are taking at least 1 excellent starter probably 2, and anywhere from 2 staters to 6 solid contributors on the team which is signficant.

I think the Jets in year 2 and beyond would be better overall than the team with Watson. 

I do not believe Watson is a Top 3 QB in the NFL. He is not in the same world as Brady, Mahomes and Rodgers.I think he is quite good and likely Top 10. He is a good dual threat QB that throws a good long ball.

 I am not going to get all excited about a season where he failed to elevate his own team, showed no leadership and padded his stats against tons of soft zone. He had 71% of his yards when behind in games, and only had an 80 rating when tied when he would be playing standard defenses,

He did not elevate his team. Throw any of the other Top Qbs on that team and I do not see 4-12. 

I also believe in Wilson quite a bit. I think his ceiling is every bit as high as Watson's.

Regardless even if Wilson is just a middle of the road pro, I think you are way understimating the effect 

I guess we'll see what the Texans get for Watson, but I really think they put a huge value on the #2 pick compared to the #3 pick because they don't want to have to build around another QB repped by the same agent as Watson.  Unless they want to build around Tua, I don't think another team can top the offer I suggested.

We obviously disagree on Watson's impact on a team.  I described him as top 3 a year from now, when Brady is 45, Rodgers is 39, and he's 26.  "Likely top 10" really undervalues what he does.  He was the main reason they won games in his first year before he got hurt (3-3 with him as a rookie, 1-9 without him) and each of the 2 years when they won division titles (and were ahead 24-0 against the Chiefs in the playoffs).  I don't think any QB that's ever played in the NFL would have had a winning season with the Texans last year.

But I think when you put actual names and stats to these draft picks, it is pretty easy to see why the team would be better off with Watson.  What do you actually expect out of 22 year old Zach Wilson in year 2? Mahomes didn't even play until he was 23.

[FidelioJet]

19 hours ago, chad2coles said:

Yea, almost every hall of fame qb has had losing seasons, and all of them, in their prime, would have had a losing season for the Texans last year. 

And all of them didn't then go to the least talented team in the NFL with no premium resources to make the team better.

No one is arguing Watson is bad, the argument is he lost with sh*tty talent and giving up 4 round picks and paying $85mm in cap space with assure the Jets roster won't get a whole lot better.   There's no reason to think he's going to win here.

[chad2coles]

5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

And all of them didn't then go to the least talented team in the NFL with no premium resources to make the team better.

No one is arguing Watson is bad, the argument is he lost with sh*tty talent and giving up 4 round picks and paying $85mm in cap space with assure the Jets roster won't get a whole lot better.   There's no reason to think he's going to win here.

I continue to believe the Jets can get Watson while having 1st and 2nd round picks in each of the next 2 drafts.  This will give the Jets the draft picks and cap space to build a contender around Watson.

I'm sure you have figured out a way to believe that Watson isn't worth 4 1st round picks in the next 2 drafts while also believing that the Texans will get more than that for him, just like you believe Watson is both paid too much to build a contender around him and too little to not hold out in 2 years and that the Jets can surround Zach Wilson with the talent to contend for a title on his rookie contract because his cap hit will be ~$25M lower than Watson's in year 2 and 3, but cannot use the $80M of cap space they have in this offseason, with more talent available than almost any other free agent class while less cap space available in any other year to build a contender.

Every one of your opinions on Watson is a complete contradiction.

[NYJ1]

On 3/6/2021 at 11:32 AM, 32EBoozer said:

MacCagnan! 
 

Some on this board were actively pushing for him or Mahomes! MacDaddy didn’t understand QB was most important position 

Yeah, back during that timeframe I had posted several times that I wish Mac would take Watson. I just thought he was such a nice and cerebral type player...

[chad2coles]

Dak Prescott will earn $126M over the next 3 years while the team that trades for Watson will pay him just $82.5M over that same time.

Next year Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, and Josh Allen will get new contracts that will pay them more than the Jets would owe Deshaun Watson over the remaining years on his contract.

Dak
Cousins
Ryan
Rodgers
Wilson
Allen
Mayfield
Jackson
and JUST above Ryan Tannehill is Deshaun Watson

Not to mention the huge commitment the Chiefs have made to Mahomes.

[RogerVick1980]

Having a elite Qb is everything in the NFL.. it doesn’t guarantee anything but basically gives you a shot to be in the mix every year unless you totally destroy your franchise by hiring a con man pastor to run your franchise like the Texans.

People point to last year for Watson that he was on a losing team but forget the year before with a flawed roster was up 24-0 on KC and probably would have beat them if they had a competent coach..

We have enough draft assets and cap space that we can get Watson and still improve the roster around him..

 

Things change quickly in the NFL because rosters over turn so much year to year and it can really turn quickly if you get a top 5 Qb so the idea we wouldn’t win for years even with Eatson is foolish..

The position is so important and most franchises never get their hands on a top 5 elite Qb.. If you have a chance to get one who’s only 25 you have to do it. 
 

 

[Philc1]

On 3/8/2021 at 4:13 AM, Dunnie said:

Brett went 4-12 in his 15th year.

Brett didn’t cost us 5 first round picks

[RogerVick1980]

21 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

And all of them didn't then go to the least talented team in the NFL with no premium resources to make the team better.

No one is arguing Watson is bad, the argument is he lost with sh*tty talent and giving up 4 round picks and paying $85mm in cap space with assure the Jets roster won't get a whole lot better.   There's no reason to think he's going to win here.

The Jets would still have picks and cap space to improve the team even if they got Watson.

Don’t know where this idea came from that if we get Watson the team would be just Watson and  our current team with no possible way to get better and add talent for the next decade.