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Interesting article about how bad NFL is at QB scouting


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More proof that trading down is probably the smart thing to do. Way to much hype in this years class for my taste. If everyone is going to trade up for Wilson or Fields, then take the draft picks and move on. You can use them for a guy you might have targeted, who will be able to be had in the 2nd through 5th rounds. Jones, Trask, Ehlinger, or Franks...

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42 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

More proof that trading down is probably the smart thing to do. Way to much hype in this years class for my taste. If everyone is going to trade up for Wilson or Fields, then take the draft picks and move on. You can use them for a guy you might have targeted, who will be able to be had in the 2nd through 5th rounds. Jones, Trask, Ehlinger, or Franks...

Eh... 37% is the best hit rate for QBs you’re gonna find. Also 50% of the best QBs on the list were first rounders. Also the only reason Russell Wilson is considered better than Luck is that Luck retired after years of bad GMing. So yeah concluding that we should trade down is a bad takeaway especially since Baker Mayfield, Andrew Luck developed well. Also Geno Smith is the best QB from 2013 but he’s worse than any other QB on that list and every single first rounder besides EJ Manuel and maybe Blake Bortles. 

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If you have a half-decent roster not quite peaking but within a year or two, then yeah it's worth taking the 38% risk of selecting a QB because with free agency its hard to retain talent across your roster  year after year. Somewhere high on the rising curve of the roster developmental curve, you have to swing for the fences for a qb. 


For a team with a thread-bare roster facing a 38% chance of hitting on the right qb, trading down does make sense but few fans of the top draft eligible qbs not named Lawrence will want to hear that, it's not very exciting. 

The other take from the article is that statistically Trevor Lawrence is going to have a very good/great career yet the best quarterback in the class will likely come from one of the other first round qbs not named Trevor Lawrence. 

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1 hour ago, 68JET11 said:

More proof that trading down is probably the smart thing to do. Way to much hype in this years class for my taste. If everyone is going to trade up for Wilson or Fields, then take the draft picks and move on. You can use them for a guy you might have targeted, who will be able to be had in the 2nd through 5th rounds. Jones, Trask, Ehlinger, or Franks...

So grab more picks and promptly throw them in the garbage drafting Trask, Ehlinger or Franks and continue the merry go round. No thanks, one James Morgan is enough for me.

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8 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

I think there is obviously a lot of guesswork and things that can’t be foreseen about any kid drafted.

But I think the bigger issue the kind of support system these QB’s are getting drafted into.

• Do you have a stable FO & Coaching staff?

• Do you have an offensive system tailor made around a young QB’s strengths? 

• Are you asking him to do too much?

• Are you drafting/signing players that fit your system?

 

Take Darnold. Each one of those falls into the negative column. Impossible to succeed in that environment if you’re young. (No this is not a keep Sam post).

Take Lamar. Each one of those would fall in the positive column. He won league MVP and even though I’m not the biggest fan of his, succeeds in his environment and wins games.

I don’t think its lack of scouting in the league. Scouting is placing a bet on its potential, but its pre-draft. So, you can’t correlate the team to the player’s projection yet.

 

That's pretty much exactly what I was going to say.

Did Darnold fail because of utter lack of talent, or did he fail because the offensive talent around him was bottom 5% of the league?  Once a QB is established, he can elevate the talent around him, although he still needs help.  While he is learning he needs more help.

The other factor, how will a 21-22 year old react when given 10 million in cash, and basically unlimited girls to spend it one?  Will he focus and put in the work, or will his head spin and he goes off and has too good of a time?  Honestly, how many of us would have made all the right decisions at 21-22?   Because if you mess up, your career can be essentially over at 26.

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39 minutes ago, chirorob said:

That's pretty much exactly what I was going to say.

Did Darnold fail because of utter lack of talent, or did he fail because the offensive talent around him was bottom 5% of the league?  Once a QB is established, he can elevate the talent around him, although he still needs help.  While he is learning he needs more help.

The other factor, how will a 21-22 year old react when given 10 million in cash, and basically unlimited girls to spend it one?  Will he focus and put in the work, or will his head spin and he goes off and has too good of a time?  Honestly, how many of us would have made all the right decisions at 21-22?   Because if you mess up, your career can be essentially over at 26.

Yup and even more important than the talent around, is the coaching and front office. Look at the GM’s, HC’s, and OC’s we’ve had here.

No structure, no support, nothing. I’ve seen it in my own industry. People who worked with me under one leadership, flourished else where with a better infrastructure working for me.

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I’ve been banging this drum for a while. The NFL’s been a disaster picking QB’s towards the top of the draft for the last decade.

Joe Douglas has to know this too. Hopefully he’s doing the same analysis of his own evals.

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3 hours ago, GreekJet said:

The NFL only picks the best QB in a draft class first 37% of time. The past decade they have missed every time.

I personally think there are a lot of biases that distort the decision making process. You aren’t just drafting Trevor Lawrence, you are drafting the Trevor Lawrence brand. The media hype machine is real with these prospects. 

https://www.theringer.com/2021/3/3/22311366/quarterback-draft-history-success-rate-trevor-lawrence

Haven’t read it yet.

Wibdring though, isn’t this more of an indictment on the ability of historically bad franchises to consistently scout the best QB in the draft class?

For example, Pittsburgh might have had Big Ben as #1 in his class, but they picked late. I guess what I mean is, there’s a handful of teams that skew this percentage by always being at the top of the draft.

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Glad we nailed the Geno Smith pick. Top QB in the class!

I would like to see this same analysis done for other positions. For example, I doubt it’s any more likely that the top WR drafted turns out to be the best WR in the class. Seems like a tall order. 37% seems like a descent number to me. Jefferson was the 5th WR taking last year. Oops. The Giants drafted Thomas ahead 3 better OT. Oops.

The only position that the NFL seems to get right in terms of who’s the best prospect is edge. Unless you draft Gholston of course. But edge rushers drafted in the top 5 seem to kill it in the NFL.

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27 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Glad we nailed the Geno Smith pick. Top QB in the class!

I would like to see this same analysis done for other positions. For example, I doubt it’s any more likely that the top WR drafted turns out to be the best WR in the class. Seems like a tall order. 37% seems like a descent number to me. Jefferson was the 5th WR taking last year. Oops. The Giants drafted Thomas ahead 3 better OT. Oops.

The only position that the NFL seems to get right in terms of who’s the best prospect is edge. Unless you draft Gholston of course. But edge rushers drafted in the top 5 seem to kill it in the NFL.

Gholston still has me walking bow legged.

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So took some time to look at the 2009-2018 drafted offensive players. Y’all should take a look as it’ll show 37% is actually descent.

But I took a different approach, during those 10 drafts I simply said, was the top player at his position drafted in the 1st. This eliminates the argument bad franchises draft at the top.

Well, when applicable (some drafts a TE or RB etc weren’t drafted in the 1st so I excluded those drafts), the top player at his position was drafted in the 1st

QB: 60% of the time

RB: 44% of the time

TE: 17% of the time

WR: 30% of the time. Could be higher if you think Mike Evans is better than ARob and Devante Adams. And if you think Amari Cooper is better than Stephon Diggs.

OC: 71%

OG: 50%

OT: 80%

QB does get the benefit that they tend to get over drafted. So it increases the chances the top QB gets drafted in the 1st.

But using the logic of this article that rates how good the NFL is at drafting a position by how often they hit with the top pick.. man y’all should scan these drafts. Edge is likely the only position with a meaningful success rate.

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2 hours ago, Gangrene said:

If you have a half-decent roster not quite peaking but within a year or two, then yeah it's worth taking the 38% risk of selecting a QB because with free agency its hard to retain talent across your roster  year after year. Somewhere high on the rising curve of the roster developmental curve, you have to swing for the fences for a qb. 


For a team with a thread-bare roster facing a 38% chance of hitting on the right qb, trading down does make sense but few fans of the top draft eligible qbs not named Lawrence will want to hear that, it's not very exciting. 

The other take from the article is that statistically Trevor Lawrence is going to have a very good/great career yet the best quarterback in the class will likely come from one of the other first round qbs not named Trevor Lawrence. 

Don't agree. It is unlikely we will be in the same situation to pick a QB so you need to act when you have a chance. QB success is also about environment so the Jets need to also make sure that the QB has the best environment to come into.

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This is a flawed premise. QB is one part of a team, the most important part, but one nonetheless. If the coaching and talent around a QB sucks, most QBs will fail. The scouting process is less of a problem than the coaching and roster building around the QB.

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22 hours ago, The Count of Monte Cristo said:

So grab more picks and promptly throw them in the garbage drafting Trask, Ehlinger or Franks and continue the merry go round. No thanks, one James Morgan is enough for me.

You or anyone else on this board doesn't know what James Morgan is. If he sucks, so be it, but what if he doesn't...

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23 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

I think there is obviously a lot of guesswork and things that can’t be foreseen about any kid drafted.

But I think the bigger issue the kind of support system these QB’s are getting drafted into.

• Do you have a stable FO & Coaching staff?

• Do you have an offensive system tailor made around a young QB’s strengths? 

• Are you asking him to do too much?

• Are you drafting/signing players that fit your system?

 

Take Darnold. Each one of those falls into the negative column. Impossible to succeed in that environment if you’re young. (No this is not a keep Sam post).

Take Lamar. Each one of those would fall in the positive column. He won league MVP and even though I’m not the biggest fan of his, succeeds in his environment and wins games.

I don’t think its lack of scouting in the league. Scouting is placing a bet on its potential, but its pre-draft. So, you can’t correlate the team to the player’s projection yet.

 

You didn't want it to be, but it is. And you did a great job. 

The Jets NEED to strengthen the overall talent on the team this year and next. Perfect opportunity to do so by trading down and acquiring as many premium picks as possible

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23 hours ago, The Count of Monte Cristo said:

So grab more picks and promptly throw them in the garbage drafting Trask, Ehlinger or Franks and continue the merry go round. No thanks, one James Morgan is enough for me.

So since you seem to be the expert, I'm guessing you'd know by now that some of the best QB's to ever play this sport, were not #1 picks, but yet low 1st's,  or weren't even drafted in the 1st round. I'll just name a few for you so you're not to embarrassed... Montana, Brady, Marino, Rodgers, Wilson, etc, etc, etc...  But you go ahead with your GM brain and keep spouting GARBAGE.

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26 minutes ago, YankeeJet22 said:

You didn't want it to be, but it is. And you did a great job. 

The Jets NEED to strengthen the overall talent on the team this year and next. Perfect opportunity to do so by trading down and acquiring as many premium picks as possible

I think theres a decent enough chance we might be able to trade down twice, and this is why I think Douglas is holding back from trading Sam now.

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On 3/6/2021 at 8:06 AM, 68JET11 said:

More proof that trading down is probably the smart thing to do. Way to much hype in this years class for my taste. If everyone is going to trade up for Wilson or Fields, then take the draft picks and move on. You can use them for a guy you might have targeted, who will be able to be had in the 2nd through 5th rounds. Jones, Trask, Ehlinger, or Franks...

You don't take the player you have rated sh*ttier because others have missed before.  That's just stupid.

When you're at #2 and you need a QB you take the QB you have rated highest.  Man, if you have a GM that's willing to trade down because he doesn't trust his and his scouts judgement then he really shouldn't be a GM.

 

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The franchise that drafts them and the team around them matters 

Give Rosen a year to sit and then run the chiefs offense and put mahomie on the jets as a rookie and people would see them differently 

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On 3/6/2021 at 8:55 AM, kdels62 said:

Eh... 37% is the best hit rate for QBs you’re gonna find. Also 50% of the best QBs on the list were first rounders. Also the only reason Russell Wilson is considered better than Luck is that Luck retired after years of bad GMing. So yeah concluding that we should trade down is a bad takeaway especially since Baker Mayfield, Andrew Luck developed well. Also Geno Smith is the best QB from 2013 but he’s worse than any other QB on that list and every single first rounder besides EJ Manuel and maybe Blake Bortles. 

Better then 3rd rd pick Mike Glennon?? Better check again..

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12 minutes ago, Larz said:

The franchise that drafts them and the team around them matters 

Give Rosen a year to sit and then run the chiefs offense and put mahomie on the jets as a rookie and people would see them differently 

Exactly. It’s amazing how people act like these QBs are robots who either are great or suck. 

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7 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Fields and Wilson being rated as top 2 draft picks just goes to show how clueless NFL scouts and people in the media are

And what QB do you like in this draft?

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On 3/6/2021 at 8:55 AM, kdels62 said:

Eh... 37% is the best hit rate for QBs you’re gonna find. Also 50% of the best QBs on the list were first rounders. Also the only reason Russell Wilson is considered better than Luck is that Luck retired after years of bad GMing. So yeah concluding that we should trade down is a bad takeaway especially since Baker Mayfield, Andrew Luck developed well. Also Geno Smith is the best QB from 2013 but he’s worse than any other QB on that list and every single first rounder besides EJ Manuel and maybe Blake Bortles. 

The very sad part is that overall we would have done better sticking with Geno as of year to date and spending out draft capital elsewhere....I know, I know.....hindsight is 20/20....just saying.  

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This is a bad post. Not by the OP, but the article.  It's not really about the QB, it's about the TEAM.  If you are drafting a QB early, it is because your team was bad.  The difference between the "hits" and the "misses" is that Patrick Mahomes has two great receiving targets in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelse.  He is still better than Trubiski, but the gap in talent is exascebated when you don't have the talent.  Josh Allen stunk in year 2 and Sam Darnold was ahead of him. The Bills got a multi-year pro bowl receiver in Stephon Diggs and 3 quality supporting receivers in Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Gabriel Davis.  The Jets by contrast got Chris Hogan who was the primary receiver for half the season, and he's now playing Lacrosse.  

I'm not a Sam Darnold superfan by any means, but you have to take into account the quarterbacks that people say did not meet the expectation and look at the offense around them. How was the coaching/game plan, how were the receivers they had, how was the offensive line?  9 times out of 10, the QB's that didn't fair well did not have 2 of those 3 things.

If I'm the Jets I'd trade down and try to get Jamar Chase, and follow up by getting an a starting offensive lineman, and starting tight end in this draft like Pat Friermuth.  If they get Zach Wilson in another attempt to get the QB, rather than improve the offensive talent I won't be mad. I just won't expect a different outcome. 

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8 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

You don't take the player you have rated sh*ttier because others have missed before.  That's just stupid.

When you're at #2 and you need a QB you take the QB you have rated highest.  Man, if you have a GM that's willing to trade down because he doesn't trust his and his scouts judgement then he really shouldn't be a GM.

 

I'm not saying don't take the player you have rated the highest, I'm saying if you have them all around the same level, then you have an option to trade down. If you think 4 guys will basically perform the same and you can get one of them at a lower position while gaining more picks, why wouldn't you do that. On the other hand minus TL, if you have one guy way ahead of the rest then by all means pick him.

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This is why if you need a QB and you're at 2 and there's 4 first round QB's you trade down and grab one that falls.  There is no reason to fall in love with a QB before they have played a down of NFL football.  

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